The Cascading Risks of a Resurgent Islamic State in the Philippines

Militants are seeking to disrupt the delicate peace process in the Bangsamoro autonomous region.

On December 3, militants placed a bomb amongst parishioners gathered for Catholic Mass on the floor of the Mindanao
State University (MSU) gym in Marawi City. Minutes later, it detonated killing four and injuring dozens. The Islamic State
(ISIS) claimed that its East Asia affiliate was responsible for the attack. After a year of heavy losses, many had hoped that the
threat posed by pro-ISIS groups was dissipating. Unfortunately, the violence that has characterized the six weeks since the
bombing suggests that the Islamic State East Asia (ISEA) is attempting a resurgence timed for a critical 16-month period for
the Philippines. The stakes are very high. Pro-ISIS groups are engaged in a last-ditch struggle to disrupt the Bangsamoro
peace process before the autonomous region’s first elections in May 2025. If peace in the Bangsamoro falters and conflict
breaks out, it will trigger cascading risks with significant repercussions for both Philippine and regional stability. The return of
unrest in the south would require Manila to redeploy its military for internal security operations and abandon an intended
repositioning of its armed forces for territorial defense. This would severely compromise the ability of the Philippines to
focus on Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea and jeopardize its closer security ties with key partners like the
United States and Japan. Efforts to mitigate these risks must be informed by a nuanced understanding of both the evolving
ISEA Philippines threat and the far-reaching implications if peace spoilers succeed in the Bangsamoro.
Vulnerable and Lashing Out
Mostly operating in the territories of the recently established Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao
(BARMM), pro-ISIS groups have a unique opportunity to act as a spoiler of the Bangsamoro peace process. However, these
groups suffer from critical vulnerabilities. Two are particularly significant. First, there is no single ISEA-Philippines with a
unified leadership structure or overarching strategic and operational coordination. ISEA Philippines is best understood as a
variety of loosely connected groups — from the Dawlah Islamiyah (DI) in Lanao del Sur and factions of the Bangsamoro
Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) in Maguindanao to Abu Sayyaf factions in the Sulu Archipelago and other smaller groups —
that have typically focused on a certain geographic area with members mostly recruited from the dominant local ethnic
group. This has tended to be an obstacle for a more coherent and focused campaign.
Second, pro-ISIS groups have been under intense pressure particularly in the last 12 months. Counterterrorism operations
have killed key leaders, most notably ISEA’s emir, Faharudin Hadji Satar (aka Abu Zacharia), who was killed in Marawi City in
June 2023. A variety of programs designed to attract defectors and reintegrate them back into their communities have also
sapped the ranks of dozens of fighters and supporters. The greatest impact on reducing the appeal of violent peace spoilers
has arguably been the success of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA) to deliver on governance and development
promises, the Philippines government’s championing of the peace process and the tireless work of local grassroots
peacebuilders. This context is crucial for understanding the significance of the Marawi City attack and its potential
implications.
Tipping the Balance to Chaos
Under intense pressure yet also faced with an historic opportunity to turn the tables on its rivals, ISEA’s choice of target and
location for the December 3 bombing is significant. In May 2017, pro-ISIS militants attacked Marawi City, and during the five-
month siege the MSU campus was never breached. It was not only a physical sanctuary but a symbol of hope and diversity.
The December 3 attack sought to shatter all of that and inspire a violent resurgence. This is certainly how a relatively new,
local pro-ISIS media unit framed the attack. Playing on nostalgia and “responsibility to protect” narratives, its messaging
lamented the loss of Marawi and called for locals to rise up. In recent weeks, to appeal to new recruits its messaging has
included photo reports depicting the daily lives of ISEA fighters.
The evolution of the ISEA Philippines threat since the 2017 Marawi siege reveals some worrying signs. For instance, it
appears that pro-ISIS groups may be coordinating more than previously thought. Although unverified, the emergence of
what appears to be a dedicated local media unit that seems to be feeding content to ISIS’ central media unit hints at a
potentially more sophisticated propaganda approach. In contrast to 2017, ISEA’s current generation also appears to have
adopted a more patient approach with someone identified as the new ISEA spokesman, so far unverified, recently referring
to their struggle as a “long jihad.”
In the BARMM’s most vulnerable communities, the sense that peace dividends have not delivered as expected has provided
local recruiters with a powerful lever. Former guerrillas are especially vulnerable to the politics of dashed expectations, and
pro-ISIS groups are desperate to coax them into their ranks. For ISEA Philippines, the bar for success is remarkably low: spoil
the peace process and fuel chaos. If they succeed, the repercussions are huge.
Life after the pandemic BY Fahmida Khatun

Since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic we have begun to analyse, forecast and speculate the impact on economies,
societies, political systems, governance mechanisms, and on many more areas. We have started to imagine a world after
COVID-19 through a variety of lenses based on our own understanding and experiences. The innumerable research that are
being carried out on the impact of COVID-19 throughout the world have flooded our minds, and sometimes made us
confused as to what life after COVID-19 would look like.
The implications of COVID-19 on the global economy and on individual countries are becoming obvious as time goes on. The
shutdown of almost all economic activities have brought miseries to economies of all strata and phases. Production and
supply chains have been disrupted, exports and imports decelerated, transportation system collapsed and service sector
interrupted. These have changed the lives and livelihoods of people across the world. Unemployment has soared, poverty
has surged, food insecurity has increased, and above all, loss of lives is increasing by the hour.
Barring a few, most governments have undertaken policy measures to address such a rapid and massive impact of corona
pandemic at large scales. Health expenditures have been topped up to mitigate the health risks. Stimulus packages for
various sectors of the economy have been announced with the objective being increase spending following the Keynesian
theory to rejuvenate the economy. Relief packages are also in place in many countries to extend income and food support to
the poor to save them from hunger.
These are of course immediate responses to rescue the lives of people and also pump oxygen into the economy. And,
hopefully it will work sooner rather than later. Scientists and doctors have shown some rays of hope to tackle the disease.
And once health is under control, human beings are smart enough to work through in reviving the economic activities and
recover the lost gains to the best of their ability. At least, history has pointed out clearly how economies could get back to
life after several crises in the past. The World Wars, the Great Depression, the Spanish Flu and many more examples will
confirm this.
However, apart from economic recovery, will there be any changes in social, cultural and institutional norms, political
systems and governance patterns? Change is a continuous process. It happens for good or for bad. Changes emanated from
crises may sometimes become beneficial for humanity. What changes will COVID-19 lead to? It depends on what changes we
want to see. And how we work towards that. It is not automatic.
At the onset of COVID-19, people talked about the universal nature of this pandemic. We were reminded of how every
person—rich and poor, man and woman, powerful and weak—is vulnerable to this pandemic. COVID-19 does not distinguish
among race, colour, gender, location, profession, position or riches. But it has been proven wrong when immediate research
in many communities in several countries showed that COVID-19 also has a bias against certain groups of people. That is why
African-American were more affected in the USA or the underprivileged with weak immune system in poor countries are
becoming victims of COVID-19 more than others. This bias is of course not created by COVID-19. Rather it is the outcome of
the biases that have been created by government policies which favour the rich and ignores the impoverished.
A review of the ongoing discussions with respect to the situation during the post COVD-19 period indicates that there can be
three possible scenarios.
First is the business as usual situation. That is, the world recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic and goes back to where we
were before COVID-19—economically, socially, politically and environmentally. We continue to live in whatever good or bad
circumstances we had during the pre-COVID-19 period. And we continue to accept and adjust to the existing realities that
the world will continue to generate wealth, and economic prosperity of some countries and some people will continue to
multiply but these privileges will not be universal.
The second situation will be such that the global economy slides so much that it takes a long time to recover. Poverty,
mortality, morbidity, food insecurity and unemployment increases. All forms of inequality within and among countries
accentuates. All global targets—Sustainable Development Goals, providing support to poor countries by developed countries
equivalent to 0.7 percent of their gross national income, Paris climate agreement to limit the increase of global temperature
to 1.5 degrees Celsius—fail to be achieved. As a result, countries become inward looking and resort to protectionism. And
the effectiveness of global institutions such as the United Nations, World Trade Organisations and the like decelerates.
Third is the optimistic case. The economies around the world not only recovers but, moves further ahead. Governments
invest more in areas such as health, education, technology, climate and work towards ending poverty, improving inclusivity,
establishing good governance and creating democratic spaces. Cooperation among nations improves and commitments
toward fulfilling the global promises get implemented. This is the situation where crisis will be turned into opportunity by
global and national leaders.
Parable of the Farmer Scattering Seed

Once again Jesus began teaching by the lakeshore. A very large crowd soon gathered around him, so he got into a boat. Then
he sat in the boat while all the people remained on the shore. 2 He taught them by telling many stories in the form of
parables, such as this one:

3 “Listen! A farmer went out to plant some seed. 4 As he scattered it across his field, some of the seed fell on a footpath, and
the birds came and ate it. 5 Other seed fell on shallow soil with underlying rock. The seed sprouted quickly because the soil
was shallow. 6 But the plant soon wilted under the hot sun, and since it didn’t have deep roots, it died. 7 Other seed fell
among thorns that grew up and choked out the tender plants so they produced no grain. 8 Still other seeds fell on fertile soil,
and they sprouted, grew, and produced a crop that was thirty, sixty, and even a hundred times as much as had been
planted!” 9 Then he said, “Anyone with ears to hear should listen and understand.”

10 Later, when Jesus was alone with the twelve disciples and with the others who were gathered around, they asked him
what the parables meant.

11 He replied, “You are permitted to understand the secret[a] of the Kingdom of God. But I use parables for everything I say
to outsiders, 12 so that the Scriptures might be fulfilled:

‘When they see what I do,

they will learn nothing.
When they hear what I say,
they will not understand.
Otherwise, they will turn to me
and be forgiven.’[b]”

13 Then Jesus said to them, “If you can’t understand the meaning of this parable, how will you understand all the other
parables? 14 The farmer plants seed by taking God’s word to others. 15 The seed that fell on the footpath represents those
who hear the message, only to have Satan come at once and take it away. 16 The seed on the rocky soil represents those
who hear the message and immediately receive it with joy. 17 But since they don’t have deep roots, they don’t last long.
They fall away as soon as they have problems or are persecuted for believing God’s word. 18 The seed that fell among the
thorns represents others who hear God’s word, 19 but all too quickly the message is crowded out by the worries of this life,
the lure of wealth, and the desire for other things, so no fruit is produced. 20 And the seed that fell on good soil represents
those who hear and accept God’s word and produce a harvest of thirty, sixty, or even a hundred times as much as had been
planted!”