December 2021

Fertilisers

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Farmer income from cultivation and allied activities to improve 3% on-year in FY23
Excluding MNREGA, incomes to increase by ~2% in FY22

Field crop profitability MGNREGA

Higher prices and government procurement to aid
growth in FY 2022 Farmer income from farming activities to Budget allocation assumed to be similar on year in FY23
increase 3% on year in FY23
(Rs billion) (Rs billion)
6% 3%
12% 43%
7% 4%
1% (Rs billion) -28%

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2017 2135 8% 3%
1802 1015
1521 1622 1634
-2% 710 730 730

46973
FY 20 FY 21 FY 22P FY23P
FY20 FY21 FY22P FY23P
46677
Rabi Kharif 45756
Note: Profit is at A2+FL Level
42906
Horticulture crop profitability Dairy
Expected decline in prices in crops like apple,
An expected increase in procurement prices to
tomato, onion and chilli to decline profits in FY22 FY20 FY21 FY22P FY23P
positively impact farmer profitability
2% (Rs billion)
(Rs billion) -3% 2% Profitability per farm family(Rupees) 3%

Note: Profit per farm family represented above is weighted 4%

-3% -6% 3% average of cultivation, MGNREGA and Dairy accounting for
869 846 861 around 50% of the rural income. The remaining 50% of the
-3% 958
rural income comes from non agriculture activities such as
458 443 414 926 930
public/private jobs, non farming wages, remittances which
have not been represented in the above chart. 896

FY 20 FY 21 FY 22P FY23P
FY20 FY21 FY22P FY23P
Rabi Kharif Source: CRISIL Research Total Dairy Profit
2
Industry overview
Urea demand to remain unchanged ,while non-urea demand switches to complexes
and SSP in FY22
Product-wise demand (FY22P) Nutrient-wise share of demand (FY22P)

MOP
SSP 6% FY21 Amongst sale of non-urea fertilizers- K, 12%
7% 5% DAP and MOP consumption is set to FY21
8% FY22
decline by 14% and 30% respectively, 10% FY22
while urea fertilizers will witness a
DAP 15% decline of 1% in FY22.On. the other
16% FY22 -59 Mn Tn hand ,demand for complexes and SSP
is expected to grow by 1% and 8% 25% FY22 - 28 Mn Tn
FY21 -61 Mn Tn 54% Urea respectively. P, 26%
53% FY21 - 30 Mn Tn
The drop in demand for DAP and MOP 65% N, 62%
19% is expected to increase the
NPK consumption share of Urea, SSP and
18% NPK fertilizers.

Source: mFMS: Department of Fertilizers, CRISIL Research

Urea DAP SSP MOP

Private (46%), public (28%), co-op

Production share Private (76%), Public (8%), Co-op (16%) No domestic production
(26%)

Raw material unavailable

Feedstock availability Domestic gas availability an issue Feedstock largely imported
domestically

Retail price (Rs/tonne) (FY22) 5,360 25,000 7,900 19,400

4
4
International Scenario
Rising fertilizer prices causing supply shortages in regions around
the world in FY22
South Asia followed by Latin America are witnessing significant supply shortage in FY22

Thousand T
17000
13000 12000

7000
4000

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Latin America Oceania 3000 South Asia
1000

-1000 -800 -900

Africa -2000 East Europe
-4000 North America -4,000 -4000
-6000 -7000 -7000 -8000

Source: IFA Market Intelligence, CRISIL Research N P2O5 K20

International fertilizer prices are rising due to increased input costs, supply constraints and exports curbs from key countries like China and Russia

572
533
472 459
492 439 416
399 347 354 341 DAP
422 314 438
($/Tonne)
318 316 MOP
344 267 281 268
319 251 245 242 Urea
290 284 264
236 255
211

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2021
Note: YTD – January-April, Years mentioned are calendar years
Source: Department of Fertilizers, CRISIL Research 6
Limited availability of fertilizers and soaring prices in international markets have significantly
curtailed imports
Urea: Increased demand of nitrogenous crops globally DAP: Ban on raw materials by china has led to a MOP: Export sanctions on Belarus impeded
amid export curbs affecting India’s imports sharp rise in prices , resulting in lower imports imports to India
Bn Tons April-Oct YTD Bn Tons April-Oct YTD
April-Oct YTD Bn Tons

0.6
0.8
0.6
10.3
58% Urea fertilizer prices
have gone up by 58%
87% DAP fertilizer prices 0.6 16%
1.9 MOP fertilizer prices
have gone up by 87%
0.7 have gone up by 16%

© 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved.

0.1
0.3
1.0 5.0 1.2 0.9
1.1 1.5
0.2
2.1 0.5 0.3
0.6
0.8 1.6 0.5 0.1
0.3 1.6 1.4
3.0 2.1 0.5

FY21 FY22 FY21 FY22 FY21 FY22

China Oman Egypt Ukraine Others China Morocco Saudi Arabia Others Canada Belarus Russia Jordan Lithuania Others

 The Imports for phosphatic fertilizer in India has been severely curtailed due to suspension of exports by China, Russia

 China, which been India’s biggest supplier of urea and No. 2 for di-ammonium phosphate after Saudi Arabia in the last two years , has banned phosphate and urea
exports until June 2022 after reducing production to conserve electricity.

 Belarus , which was second largest MOP supplier in 2020- 21 after Canada , is facing sanctions imposed by US and European Union. With this the production of
potash has declined, a key ingredient for phosphatic fertilizers hampering its exports.

 Russia also announced on Nov 2021 to limit exports of nitrogen fertilisers and complex nitrogen-containing fertilizers for six months to try to curb any further increase
in food prices amid higher gas prices.

7
Domestic Demand: Review and Outlook
DAP and MOP expected to de-grow in FY22 on account of supply crunch and
soaring prices
Supply disruption due to plant shutdowns, extreme weather conditions and export curbs from china .which accounts for 75% of the world’s active ingredients
requirement have led to a drastic increase in prices. The supply crunch is expected to ease by Q1FY23, softening non-urea fertilizer prices.

DAP MOP SSP Complexes

18% 17%
5% 16%
2% 5%
FY 22 FY 22 8%
FY 21 FY 23 FY 23 5%
FY 21 2% 1%

-14% FY 21 FY 23 FY 23

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FY 22 FY 21 FY 22
-30%
Negative Growth in FY22 Negative Growth in FY22 Stable growth in FY22 Moderate growth in FY22

DAP prices have stabilized after temporary surge due to hike in NBS rates twice, while prices of MOP have surged by 17% this fiscal YTD

Rs/MT 32742
30752 3%
27640 27031 27821 28130
26183 31940 25728
24339 24488 24536 24543 24567
27839 7%
26235
24813 24795 24809 24796 24866 24000 24036 24000 24000 24000
19485 19663 19949 20186
17646 17500 17472 17469 17496 17498 18307 19058 19169 17%

8457 8470 8583 8543 8504 8571 8825 8870 8067 7980 7584 7360 7258 -5%

Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21
DAP MOP NPK 10-26-26 SSP - Granular

9
Source: Department of Fertilizers, CRISIL Research
 Overall fertiliser demand to de-grow by 4-5% on year in fiscal 2022
Urea: Demand to remain range bound despite erratic rainfall and delay in Non-urea: Demand to de-grow by ~8% in FY22 led by elevated
sowing international prices and curb on imports by Belarus, Russia and China.
Neem coating 35.0 (Mn Tonnes) 11.2% 15.0%
34.0
of urea and Urea 6.0% 30.0
demonetization 4.4% 2.5-3.5% 7.6% 7.2% 10.0%
33.0 3.8% 4.0% 3.5% 4-5%
1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 25.0 2.1% 2.5% 5.0%
32.0 2.0%
2.6% 20.0 -2.5% 0.0%
31.0 0.0%
-1.9%
30.0 -(0.5-1.5)% -2.0% 15.0 -5.0%

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-10.2% -(7.5-8.5)%)
29.0 -4.0% 10.0 -10.0%
28.0 -6.8% -6.0% 5.0 -18.2% -15.0%
30.0 30.6 30.0 31.2 29.1 29.8 30.4 31.0 32.3 32.0 33.0 23.8 21.3 23.0 24.6 24.0 24.5 25.1 26.0 28.9 27 28
27.0 -8.0% 0.0 -20.0%
FY13 FY15 FY17 FY19 FY21 FY23P FY13 FY15 FY17 FY19 FY21 FY23P
Urea Consumption (LHS) Growth (y-o-y) (RHS) Non-urea Consumption (LHS) Growth (y-o-y)

Overall fertilizer demand expected to decline by 4-5% due to high-base effect, limited availability of fertilisers in the international market and uneven distribution of rainfall
between June and September’21 impacting sowing of kharif crops.

 We expect the urea demand to de-grow by 0.5-1.5% in FY22 on
account of decline in urea imports, erratic rainfall during kharif and
delayed sowing for rabi crops. The urea imports have fallen by 50%
from Apr-Oct YTD during this fiscal.
 Natural gas which accounts for 75-80% of the total cost of production of
urea plants has risen over 60% YTD. We expect the natural gas prices
to soften in FY23 owing to ease in crude oil prices.
 Though higher cost of gas is a pass-through for urea makers, it led to
working capital pressure forcing the urea players to lower their inventory
levels causing temporary shortages in certain states for rabi season.
 We expect the non-urea demand to de-grow by 7.5-8.5% in FY22 due to
shortage of phosphatic fertilisers for the rabi season as the inventories
dipped sharply on account of decline in imports(87%for DAP and 16%
for MOP), driven by elevated international prices and limited availability
in the international markets, while domestic demand remained stable..
 For non-urea fertilisers, prices of key raw materials such as phosphoric
acid and ammonia are already up 40-60% YTD over last fiscal .
 Lower inventory levels and exorbitant prices aided market demand
switch from DAP and MOP to indigenously available SSP and
complexes.
10
 Urea consumption expected to grow at moderate pace in the long run
Dependency on imports to decline in FY22 due to export curbs from
Urea: In next 5 years to witness marginal growth than preceding 5 years
Russia and china
(Mn Tonnes) (%)
(Mn tonnes)
Urea Consumption 12.0 35.0
29.1 29.4 30.4
10.0 27.2 30.0
26.2
24.9
23.2 25.0
8.0 20.2 18-22
20.0

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17.1
6.0 13-17
15.0
4.0
10.0
2.0 5.0
34-35 7.9 7.1 8.7 8.5 5.0 6.0 7.6 9.1 9.8 6.4-6.64.8-5.2
31.2 29.1 29.8 30.4 31.0 32.3 32.0 32-34 - -
FY13 FY15 FY17 FY19 FY21 FY23P
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P FY23P FY26P Imports Imports as percentage of consumption

 Urea will continue to be the preferred fertilizer among the marginalized farmers and middle-income farmers due to high price differential between urea and non-urea
fertilisers.

 Urea demand is expected to grow at a moderate pace in the next five years post marginal decline in FY22 . However, it is expected to grow slowly than non-urea
fertilizers as farmers are expected to become more aware about the use of non-urea fertilisers and balanced use of fertilizers focusing on the soil health.

 Over the years, production of urea had been falling short of the consumption demand for urea, giving rise to imports .However, in FY22, with export curbs from China
and Russia, the imports is set to drop drastically by 35%.In addition, with increase in urea capacity expected during fiscal 2023 , it is expected that dependency on
imports will reduce further in upcoming years.
Source: Department of Fertilizers, CRISIL Research

11
DAP and NPK complexes to drive growth for the non–urea segment
Non-Urea: To maintain its CAGR of 3-4% in subsequent 5 years as well
Fertiliser application efficiency to improve gradually
(FY21-26)
(Mn Tonnes)
Non-urea consumption (Ratio)
NPK Ratio
8.2 8.0
7.2
6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3
6.1 6.1 6.1
5.4

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3.2
2.7 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6
2.3

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
31-33
24.6 24.0 24.5 25.1 26.0 28.9 26-27 27-29
FY13 FY15 FY17 FY19 FY21 FY23P FY25P
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23P FY26P
N P K
 Complex fertilisers (DAP and NPK complexes) to grow at a faster pace during the next five years

• In the near term, increased NBS rates for phosphorous to aid healthy offtake of DAP and NPK from fiscal 2023 onwards.

• Government objective of improving land productivity through Soil Health Cards and direct income support schemes like PM KISAN, PM-AASHA, e-NAM (National
Agriculture Market) to support growth in the long run.

• Soil Health Card provides every farmer soil nutrient status of his land and advice him accordingly on the dosage of fertilizers.

 Soil fertility to gradually improve during the next five years

• NPK ratio to gradually improve from 6.1:2.5:1.0 in FY20 to 5.2:2.3:1.0 in FY26 primarily due to measures adopted by fertilizer companies and
government awareness of balanced use of fertilizers.
12
Source: Department of Fertilizers, CRISIL Research
Domestic subsidy and Working capital
 Revision in NBS rates and increased domestic production to result in rising
government subsidy bill in FY22
Indigenous urea subsidy and complex fertilizer subsidy to rise substantially

(₹ Billion)
1200-1210

694 710 650

535-545 530

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423-433
327 327
240 236 222
106 127 167 215-225 180 202 209
60
FY22E

FY22E

FY22E

FY22E
FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21
Indigenous Urea Imported Urea Non-urea fertilisers Total Subsidy

 In FY22, indigenous urea subsidy bill is projected to escalate by ~118% on account of substantial increase by ~ 105% in cost of production. Hike in imported natural
gas price by 69%(excluding spot price) which makes up ~70% of the total natural gas requirement , has led to this significant rise in production cost.

 Imported urea subsidy bill is expected to increase by ~32% in fiscal 2022 on the back of a 70-80% increase in international urea prices during the year. Imports on
the other hand are estimated to decline by 35% for the fiscal on account of curb on imports from Russia and China.

 Complex fertiliser subsidy to increase by ~88% on-year in fiscal 2022 on account of increase in NBS subsidy rates of phosphorous content. The government hiked
NBS rates for P content twice for (May21 – Oct 21) and (Oct 21 –May 22) period - in order to provide non-urea fertilisers such as DAP to farmers at similar rates of
last year despite an increase in input costs.

 The Govt. had announced Rs 79,530 crore as fertiliser subsidy. In addition, subsidy amounting to Rs 21,000 crore was allocated during the year ,Despite this extra
provision, the subsidy bill for FY22 is expected to increase by 29% due to an unprecedented spike in the prices of natural gas and other raw materials.

NBS Rates 14
Falling roll over subsidy improves industry’s working capital position
Roll-over subsidy expected to further in FY22  Industry interactions suggest that 82% of the budgeted allocation of Rs
1,339 billion was disbursed as of March 2021.Outstanding subsidy was
658
towards pending clearance of stock through point-of-sales
541 529
480  Roll over subsidy to increase in fiscal 2022 if the government disburses
(₹ Billion) 335-345
368 82% of the initial budgeted allocation of Rs 790 billion. However, subsidy
320
248 arrears to drop substantially to Rs 335-345 bn in case the government

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disburses 120% of the initial budgeted amount.
Debtor days to increase by ~38 days on ~82% disbursement of initially
budgeted subsidy allocation
83
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 P (₹ Billion)
300 200
170 171 180
Note: Subsidy amount carried forward when ~82% of the budgeted subsidy amount is disbursed
250
(Base Case) 142 140-145 160
130 151 154 140
- - - - - Subsidy amount carried forward when 120% of the budgeted subsidy allocation is disbursed 200
Source: CRISIL Research 108 120
150 100
 In fiscal 2022, debtor days is expected to expand by 38 days if the government 80
100
disburses 82% of the initial budgeted allocation of Rs 790 billion with estimated 82 60
40
~63% increase in subsidy bill from the initial budgeted amount. 50
20
195 235 206 171 250 246 173 175
0 0
 However, debtor days to contract by 26 days in case the government disburses FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P
Total Receivables (RHS) Debtor Days (LHS)
120% of the initial budgeted amount.
Note: Players considered -Chambal Fertilisers, National Fertilisers and Rashtriya Chemical Fertilisers,
Coromandel International, Gujarat state fertilisers, Zuari Agro Chemicals and Mangalore Chemical
Fertilisers.
15
Subsidy amount carried forward when ~82% of the amount is disbursed (Base Case)
- - - - - Subsidy amount carried forward when 120% of subsidy allocation is disbursed
Profitability
Margins of fertiliser players to remain unaffected despite sharp increase in raw material prices
Rock phosphate prices to rise in FY22P owing to increased demand Margins of urea players to remain range bound in fiscal 2022
(USD/MT)
Rock Phos. 45%
FY21: -8%
200 144 (%)
150
100 H1 FY222: H2 FY22: 12.3% 11.6-11.8%
50 34-38% 43-47%
0
FY22: 38-43%
Jan-17
Apr-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
8.1% 9.3% 8.4%
9.8% 8.2%
7.7% 7.1%
8.2%

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Tight availability from key ammonia producers to firm prices in FY22P 7.6% 7.9%
6.5% 6.5% 6.7% 7% 6-7%
(USD/MT)
Ammonia 189%
800 665 FY21: 9%
600 3.1%
400
200 H1 FY222: H2 FY22:
0 160-165% 83-87%
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22P
Jan-17
Apr-17

Jan-18
Apr-18

Jan-19
Apr-19

Jan-20
Apr-20

Jan-21
Apr-21
Oct-17

Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20

Oct-21
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

FY22: 115-120% Urea Non-urea

Note: Players considered for urea margins- Chambal fertilisers, National fertilisers and Rashtriya chemical fertilisers
Supply constraints and higher demand to lift phosphoric acid prices in Players considered for Non urea margins- Coromandel International, Gujarat state fertilisers, Zuari and Mangalore
FY22P chemical fertilisers.

1400 68% 1160

(USD/MT) Phosphoric acid FY21: 3%
1200  In fiscal 2022, margins of urea players are likely to remain range bound as the
1000
800 H1 FY222: H2 FY22: urea fertilizer prices are highly regulated by the Govt .The Increased cost of
600 69-73% 45-50%
production due to hike in natural gas prices will be subsidized by the govt.
400
200 FY22:56-62%
0  Margins of non-urea fertilizer players are also expected to remain range bound
Jan-17
Apr-17

Jan-18
Oct-17

Apr-18

Jan-19
Oct-18

Apr-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

due to subsidy by the Govt. The Govt. hiked the NBS subsidy rates twice from Rs
18 per kg to Rs 45 per kg.
Source: CRISIL Research 17
Supply Addition : Urea
Four revival plants to come on stream in fiscal 2022
Urea capacity additions of ~6 million tonnes by fiscal 2025
(Mn Tonnes)
RCF and Gorakhpur plants Talcher revival
have already commissioned. units
Matix fertiliser Chambal’s 1.27
Gadepan III plant Sindri and Barauni revival
plant
plants to complete by FY22
5.1
1.3
1.3
0.8

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31.2 31.2 31.2
24.8 24.8 26.1 26.1 26.1
22.7 23.5 23.5 23.5

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23P FY24P FY25P
Incremental capacity Capacity

Source: Industry, CRISIL Research

 The government is meaning to reduce the dependency on imports for urea and is therefore aiming to revive 5 sick fertiliser plants. Overall urea capacity is projected
to increase by ~6 million tonnes by fiscal 2025.
 The schedule for Ramagundam Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited along with Gorakhpur unit of Hindustan fertilizers and chemical limited has been completed.
Presently, the project is in commissioning stage. The scheduled completion was impacted due to COVID-19 pandemic.
 Until Nov 2021, Sindri and Barauni fertiliser plants have achieved 92.8% and 92.5% of progress, respectively.
 Work on Talcher plant has started . Until Nov 2021, it has achieved 16.71% of progress. Earth work on the plant is already completed. The unit is estimated to
commence urea production by June 2024.

19
Annexure
NBS Rates
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
N 20.9 20.9 20.9 15.9 19.0 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.8

P 18.7 18.7 18.7 13.2 12 15.2 15.2 14.9 45.323

K 18.3 15.5 15.5 15.5 12.4 11.1 11.1 10.1 10.116

S 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.7 3.6 2.4 2.4

© 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved.

Note: Phosphorous content’s subsidy has been revised from Rs 14.9 per kg to Rs 45.324 per kg between
20th May – 31st October 2021

21
 Thank you

22

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