BREACH MODELING:

STANDARD APPROACH AND

GUIDELINES FOR THE USACE
DAM SAFETY PROGRAM

Andy Lowe, P.E.

Hydraulic Engineer
Modeling, Mapping, and Consequences
Production Center, USACE
Email: James.A.Lowe@usace.army.mil
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OVERVIEW

USACE best-practices approach for dam breach modeling

and how cascading breach modeling is incorporated.
Background – The purpose of dam breach modeling and use
of the model results.
Modeling guidelines are from the Modeling,
Mapping and Consequences Production
Center perspective and should be considered
as a general approach
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DAM BREACH MODELING IN USACE

Why needed?
Who is responsible?
When is it performed?
What products are produced?
How is it performed?
(Guidance / approach /
requirements)
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DAM BREACH MODELING IN USACE

Why needed?
- Consequences: Required for a risk assessment

- Emergency Flood Mapping

- Hazard Classification: Breach modeling results are

used to support dam safety hazard classification
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DAM BREACH MODELING IN USACE

Why needed?
- Consequences: Required for a risk assessment

Hydraulic modeling outputs used as

direct inputs to LifeSim
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DAM BREACH MODELING IN USACE

Why needed?
- Emergency Flood Mapping: Hard-copy and digital
flood maps
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DAM BREACH MODELING IN USACE

Why needed?
- Hazard Classification: Breach modeling results are
used to support dam safety hazard classification

- Classification is typically obvious without modeling,

given size and type of dam; however, modeling is
needed occasionally
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DAM BREACH MODELING IN USACE

(Generally) Two Project Types:

1) Large volume, multi-purpose projects with primary purpose of flood control (High Hazard)
2) Navigation dams not operated for flood control (Significant Hazard).
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DAM BREACH MODELING IN USACE

Who is responsible?
Modeling, Mapping, and
Consequences Production
Center
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DAM BREACH MODELING IN USACE

Who is responsible?
 Hydrologic and Hydraulic
Engineers
 Economists
 Geospatial/Data Management
Specialists
 Technical Writers
 Program Managers
 Associated Leadership
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DAM BREACH MODELING IN USACE

When is it performed?
Products are reviewed and updated as needed on a 10-
year cycle as part of the Dam Safety Program
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DAM BREACH MODELING IN USACE

Breach modeling within the Dam Safety Program

MMC Base Modeling – Begins 6-9 months prior to Periodic Assessment

Periodic Hydraulic Consequence

EAP -
Inundation Map
Documentation
Assessment Modeling Modeling
Creation
- Reviews

Issue Evaluation
Study Detailed Review of
Model Update Model
Improvements as and/or Run More
-or- Base Model needed Specific Scenarios
Dam Safety
Modification Study
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DAM BREACH MODELING IN USACE

Base modeling considerations

Products are reviewed and updated as needed on a 10-
year cycle

• State of practice (software,

modeling approach)
• Stakeholder needs
• New information
• Funding availability
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DAM BREACH MODELING IN USACE

What products are produced?

o Consequences estimates (life
safety, direct economic damages,
loss of service)
o Digital Inundation Files for 10
scenarios (5 breach / 5 non-breach)
o Map books for 2 scenarios to
support EAP’s
o Final reports / presentations
o Hydraulic and Consequences
models
 Can be used in future or more
detailed study
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DAM BREACH MODELING IN USACE

How is it performed? (Guidance

/ approach / requirements)

• Technical Manuals for both dams and

levees

• Hydraulics, Consequences, Mapping,

Documentation, Project Management

• Updated periodically based on state of

practice, stakeholder needs, and
consistency
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DAM BREACH MODELING IN USACE

Partial List of Hydraulic Variables / Assumptions / Limitations

BREACH PARAMETERS Downstream coincident Project Operation
(width, depth, development time, etc) discharge
Little or no calibration / No event large Gate ratings / gate capacity Debris considerations
enough for calibration above published values
Selection of various 1D/2D equation Limited model detail (no bridges Likely “static” dam breach modeling
sets, tolerances, exponents, stability / limited urban landscape approach
factors modeling)
Likely a single set of all variables listed Operation of downstream Cascading breach potential
above for all loading conditions projects
Roughness Values (Manning’s ‘n’) Boundary conditions Ineffective Areas

Weir coefficients (lateral structures, SA Computational limitations with …

connections, overtopping) refined modeling
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DAM BREACH BASE MODELING

Modeling team members Periodic Assessment team members

(MMC Personnel) with limited (if any) involvement
 Hydrologic and Hydraulic  District Dam Safety Personnel
Engineers
 Project Personnel
 Economists
 Geotechnical Engineer
 GIS/Data Management
 Geologists
Specialists
 Structural Engineers
 Technical Writers
 Local Emergency Management
 Program Managers
 Associated Leadership
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DAM BREACH BASE MODELING

– Given assumptions and unknowns, how often are models and model
results “correct”?

– Consistency in modeling approach is critical for portfolio

management. The technical manuals provides for this consistency.

“All models are wrong, but some are useful” “Models are to be used, not believed”
-George E.P. Box -Henri Theil
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MODEL DEVELOPMENT - MINIMUM

STANDARDS AND REQUIREMENTS

– Latest official software version (HEC-RAS / LifeSim)

at study initiation. 1D, 2D, or combined 1D/2D
models

– Model extent wide and long enough to capture all

significant incremental consequences.

– 10m bare earth DEM minimum

detail
• Available for contiguous
United States
• Reasonable data size
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MODEL DEVELOPMENT - MINIMUM

STANDARDS AND REQUIREMENTS

– Standard Scenarios – 5 loading conditions;

breach and non-breach. Normal conditions
to Top of Dam

– Project operation based on official

regulations.

– Breach Parameters
• Embankment Dams – Regression Equations
• Concrete Gravity Dams – Multiple Monoliths
• Arch Dams – Entire structure
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MODEL DEVELOPMENT - MINIMUM

STANDARDS AND REQUIREMENTS

Regression Equations – Based on large datasets of

observed dam breach data
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MODEL DEVELOPMENT - MINIMUM

STANDARDS AND REQUIREMENTS

• Breach Parameters for Base Model are selected after review of:
» Regression Equation Results
» Dam Configuration (i.e. breach can’t be wider than the valley)
» Agency Guidelines (table below)
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MODEL DEVELOPMENT - MINIMUM

STANDARDS AND REQUIREMENTS

 Dam Breach Location / Initiation

o Horizontal Location - Centered over
highest portion of the dam
o Vertical Initiation at breach bottom
elevation (for piping failure)

Breach Bottom Elevation

o Assumed to erode to downstream
channel invert or embankment toe

 Timing & Progression

o Initiate Breach when dam pool is at peak
elevation
o “Sine Wave” Progression
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MODEL DEVELOPMENT - MINIMUM

STANDARDS AND REQUIREMENTS

– Data availability is different for every project. More detailed information will
be incorporated in the study if available AND if not production prohibitive.
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CASCADING BREACH

 Known issue and phenomenon. When

breach of an upstream dam causes
breach of downstream structures

 A separate cascading breach scenario

is run if a large downstream dam is
overtopped.

 The non-cascading scenarios are

considered the official scenarios for
flood mapping.
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CASCADING BREACH

Same information available as non-cascading breach, just fewer scenarios

 The Non-Cascading Breach is the

“Official” base model scenario
because:
1) Consistency
2) Additional uncertainty
3) Limit duplication of efforts.

 A separate map set is available

for the downstream dam
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MODELING GUIDELINES FOR CASCADING
BREACH

 Only for 2 loading conditions

 Only a single run per loading. All major downstream dams breach
that overtop.

 Same breach assumption approach (regression equations or

multiple monoliths).

 Breach trigger (5’ over dam or peak elevation, whichever is less)

 The model should be long enough to capture significant

incremental consequences.
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MODELING GUIDELINES FOR CASCADING
BREACH

Goal: Capture all incremental consequences (same for cascading or

non-cascading scenarios)

 Characterize the risk / emergency planning

 Not uncommon to show incremental consequences 100 miles or

more downstream USACE dams.
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MODELING GUIDELINES FOR CASCADING
BREACH

 Primary hydraulic variables that determine flooding well

downstream: Reservoir volume / terrain

 End model when:

1) < 2 feet between breach and non-breach - OR
2) Flood elevations are below flood stage - OR
3) No additional downstream population
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MODELING GUIDELINES FOR CASCADING
BREACH

Breach Parameters: Conceptual Impact for Dams:

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MODELING GUIDELINES FOR CASCADING
BREACH

 Typically assume similar initial conditions as the upstream dam

 Assume official operations. No heroic measures or intervention

assumed that is not documented.

 With base level modeling, it is the

risk assessment team’s
responsibility to consider all
assumptions and results to
determine best estimate
consequences.
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SPECIAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR

CASCADING BREACH

- Only breach dams when breach would cause flooding. No navigation or water
supply dams with little storage
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SPECIAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR

CASCADING BREACH

- Modeling assumptions matter Study Dam

1st downstream dam

2nd downstream
dam
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SPECIAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR

CASCADING BREACH

- Modeling assumptions matter

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HIGHER LEVEL BREACH MODELING

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HIGHER LEVEL BREACH MODELING

Level of Detail

Hydraulic Model to Support Risk

Assessment – HIGHER LEVEL STUDY

• Start with BASE MODEL, and add detail

for more specific scenarios, for example:

• Breach:
• Improved assumptions with Geotech and
Structural Input
• Tailored to a performance concern (e.g.
Gate Failure)

• Inflows:
• Specific inflow scenarios
• Detailed release decisions during
emergency
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HIGHER LEVEL BREACH MODELING

• Verify/determine downstream coincident flood

assumptions
• Consider physically-based breach models (e.g.,
WinDAM or DLBreach) and breach development.
• Update consequences model with elicitation findings
(flood warning, mobilization, etc)
• Sensitivity analysis
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Questions