2022 LIDAR INNOVATION TECHNOLOGY AND INDUSTRY

全球自动驾驶和激光雷达市场趋势分析
标普全球资深首席分析师 陈光远
Owen.Chen@spglobal.com
20 Sep 2022
Outline

• Global Light Vehicle Production Forecast

• Market Analysis of Global Automated Driving

• Automotive LIDAR Technology and Trends

Copyright © 2022 by S&P Global Mobility, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 2
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4
Part 1:
Global Light Vehicle Production Forecast
 Demand recovery out of COVID is impacted by other new headwinds

Global light vehicle production – Sept 2022 Forecast revisions by year and factor versus Feb 2022

110
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
百万

Pre-COVID forecast January 2020

September 2022 forecast 0

百万
100
-1
-2
90
-3
80 -4
-5
70
-6
-7
60
2015
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
-8

Direct Loss, Russia & Ukraine Prod Supply Chain Losses Demand Destruction

Source: S&P Global Mobility Light Vehicle Production © 2022 S&P Global Source: S&P Global Mobility Light Vehicle Production © 2022 S&P Global

Technical or not, industry is operating at recessionary Following Ukraine crisis, the long term outlook is
levels with 38M vehicles cut from 2020-22 dominated by demand destruction effects

S&P Global Mobility @ 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry 6

Analog chip supply pressure continues, especially as the industry electrifies

Average number of Analog chips per car by segment

Average number of MCU and Analog chips per car
and propulsion system
Analog chips Electric
Hybrid-Full
Microcontrollers (MCUs) Hybrid-Mild
ICE: Stop/Start
ICE

A B C D E F
Source: S&P Global Mobility, WSTS (Jul-22) © 2022 S&P Global Source: S&P Global Mobility © 2022 S&P Global

Industry should not be fooled by false signs of relief on chip supply constraints
Chip shortage will not solve itself with economic slowdown and higher automotive allocation is momentary

S&P Global Mobility @ 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry 7

Supply-side factors constrain industry capacity

• Supply chain challenges abound

– COVID lockdowns, Ukraine conflict, raw materials availability, energy prices and inflation, extreme weather, and…

• Chip shortage remains central undercurrent to overall production outlook

– Lead times are still at historic highs—between 3x and 4x the long term average
– Average number of chips per car heavily oriented towards analog over microcontroller—now and future
– Burst of CAPEX in 2022/23 will only add significant new capacity from 2024/25
– Chip industry concerned about potential over-capacity imbalance—inventory burning vs building

S&P Global Mobility @ 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry 8

Part 2:
Market Analysis of Global Automated Driving
全球自动驾驶政策和商业化
Cruise和百度在美国、中国实现无人robotaxi商业化运营； 本田和奔驰在日本和日德国投放乘用车SAE Level 3自动驾驶功能

2022年8月：中国深圳允许乘用车SAE LEVEL 3级
自动驾驶汽车上路；
2022年6月：美国批准Cruise L4无
人robotaxi在加州的商业化运营 2022年8月：武汉和重庆允许L4无人robotaxi商业
化收费运营，百度为国内首家获准的企业；

2021年：德国允许乘用车SAE LEVEL 3级自动驾驶汽 2020年：日本允许乘用车

车上路；最高限速60km/h； SAE LEVEL 3级自动驾驶汽
车上路；
2022年：梅赛德斯-奔驰推出Drive Pilot功能S级轿车实
现L3级自动驾驶；所用激光雷达为Valeo Scala Gen 2; 2021年：本田宣布投放100
量 Lengen Sensing Elite功能
ALKS法规拟将L3场景下最高限速从60km/h提升到 具备SAE Level 3级自动驾驶
130km/h; 潜在的激光雷达提供商包括Valeo, Luminar, 车型，供消费者租赁；最高
Innoviz… 限速40km/h, 所用激光雷达
为Valeo Scala Gen 1;

截至到2022 Q3, 已商业化的L3/L4车型全部搭载激光雷达

S&P Global Mobility @ 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry 10
Autonomy Level Forecast shows steady transition towards automated driving
Q4 forecast updates will add L2+ features and continue to reflect aggressive shift towards L2 and L2+

Autonomy Level Sales Forecast, Global Automated Driving Level Share, Global

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2021 2027 2033

L0-L1 L2 L3 L4 L2 L3 L4
Source: IHS Markit, Autonomy Forecasts, August 2022 © 2022 IHS Markit Source: IHS Markit, Autonomy Forecasts, August 2022 © 2022 IHS Markit

S&P Global Mobility @ 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry 11

Maslow’s hierarchy of needs in automated driving
S&P Global Mobility Q3 database will include L2+ highway/urban, L3 highway/urban, L4 highway/urban/parking

SAE L5 • Fully autonomous driving

(ODD w/o limitation)

SAE LEVEL 4 • Robotaxi/Robotruck

• Machin-only driving

Comfort Needs SAE LEVEL 3 • Human-machine co-driving

• NOA Highway
Industry LEVEL 2+ L2+ in China • NOA Urban
• Summon/Memory parking

• ACC+LC
SAE LEVEL 2
• APA
…
Safety Needs
• ACC
SAE LEVEL 1 • LC
…

• AEB
SAE LEVEL 0
• FCW
…
12
Feature evolution within Level 2 without crossing over into Level 3 liability
L2+ Highway Scenario
Point-to-point pilot feature in highway road
Construction zone
Toll / service station
L2 Function Merge / Cut in
Lane change – driver initiated Overtake – system initiated
Lane centering On/off ramp – system initiated
Adaptive cruise control Lane change – system initiated
 Vehicle can control longitudinally and Enhancements to the L2 Application
laterally to adjust velocity or distance  System reacts to and controls both
within the same driving lane axes of travel in more situations and
 Lane change possible when with deeper situational awareness
triggered by driver with limitations on  Often removes driver requirement to
road types, separation of oncoming interact with steering at set intervals
traffic, intersections, signals and more  Lane change triggered by system
L2+ Urban Scenario
Point-to-point pilot feature in urban road
Roundabout go through
Right/U turn
Unprotected left turn
VRU avoidance & nudge
Traffic light stop/go
Pull over
Enhancements to the L2 Application
 System reacts to and controls both axes
of travel with greater awareness:
o Traffic signals and intersections
o Wider VRU detection area
(cyclist, two-wheel, pedestrian)
o Follow in absence of lane markings
o Turns, roundabouts, and more
13
 L3 technology demonstration vs L2+ highway / urban navigation pilot
L4
highway/urban/parking
SAE L3 within driving lane L3 w/ lane change
Levels players in 130km/h
Technology Demonstration

Honda MB BMW MB BMW

L3
Legend L3 S&EQS L3 I7 L3

L2 + Highway pilot L2 + Urban pilot

Under Development

Nomenclature: GAC WEY

NOA: Navigate On Autopilot
NGP NGP NOH Arcfox Changan GAC
NGP: Navigation Guided Pilot
U-ANP: Urban-Apollo Navigation Pilot
NAD: NIO Autonomous Driving Tesla Xpeng NIO Li
NDA: Navigational Driving Assist
NOA: Navigate On Autopilot NOA Xpilot 3.0 NOP NOA
H-ANP: Highway-Apollo Navigation Pilot

Cadillac Tesla Xpeng NIO JIDU

VW L2+ MB L2+ U-ANP
Ultra-Cruise FSD Beta Xpilot3.5/4 NAD

Extended User Experience with More Driving Scenarios

L2
ACC+LC Highway w/o lane change Highway Use Case Urban Use Case
14
Next-generation cars are ~2x as likely to assist and automate
Based on 46 tracked applications from basic ADAS to automated driving use cases

Application growth driven by mandates will impact other regions Average Apps per Vehicle
20 16

18 14
L2-Highway
16 represents a more
12
traditional option
14
growth trajectory
10
12

10 8

8 6
6
4
4

2 2

0 0
EU - AEB NA - AEB CN - AEB EU - AEB NA - AEB CN - AEB EU - DMS NA - DMS CN - DMS EU - L2H NA - L2H CN - L2H EU NA CN
PED PED PED

Note: AEB: Automatic Emergency Braking AEB-PED: AEB Pedestrian 2021 2027 2021 2027
DMS: Driver Facial Monitoring System L2H: Level 2 Highway Automation Source: IHS Markit,
EU: West, Central, East Europe NA: North America CN: Greater China Autonomy Forecasts,
Source: IHS Markit, Autonomy Forecasts, August 2022 © 2022 IHS Markit August 2022 © 2022 IHS Markit

S&P Global Mobility @ 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry 15

Consumer adoption is critically important—but so is proper consumer education

Feature Desirability for Automated Driving Use Cases – Percent of total responses

Fully automated parking (L2)

Highway automated driving (L2)

City automated driving (L2)

Remote automatic parking (L2)

Unsupervised highway automated driving (L3)

Unsupervised city automated driving (L3)

Remote valet automated parking (L4)

Self-driving car (L4)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Very or Somewhat Desirable

Note: N=7,812 (US 1,000; UK 1,003; DE 987; CN 994; JP 933; TH 906; IN 1,010; BR 979)
Source: S&P Global Mobility, Autonomy Consumer Survey 2022 © 2022 IHS Markit

S&P Global Mobility @ 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry 16

Opinions on autonomous vehicles

Percent of Respondents Who Would Ride In and Purchase

Versus Respondents Who Would Not
80 73%

73%

Percent of Respondents
60

42%
38%
40 33% 33%

22%
20 17%

of China based respondents would 8%

ride in and purchase a self-driving 0

vehicle that does not require a driver CHINA U.S. JAPAN GERMANY
or driver supervision I would ride a self- I would not ride a self-
driving vehicle and I driving vehicle and I
Note: 1,000 new vehicle intenders per country
Source: IHS Markit would purchase one would not purchase one

S&P Global Mobility @ 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry 17

Part 3:
Automotive LIDAR Technology and Trends
The numbers of sensors explodes as autonomy level is increasing
Lidar is required from Level 2+ to Level 4 applications

SAE Level 4 SAE Level 4

Industry Benchmarks SAE Level 2 (Industry) Level 2+ SAE Level 3
(Passenger Vehicle) (Robo-taxi)

Eyes-on Extended eyes-on Eyes-off

Hands-off Eyes-off
Hands-on Hands-off Mobility-as-a-
Highway automated Hands-off
Highway assisted Automated driving Service
Feature & driving Minds off
driving
Functionality Passenger vehicle with
ACC + Lane ACC + Lane Without steering
steering wheel
ACC + Lane Centering Centering wheel
L4 Highway/urban
Centering DFM DFM

Toyota Safety Sense GM Super/Hyper

Honda Traffic Jam
2.0 Cruise Cruise Origin
Market Examples (and Pilot
Honda Sensing Ford Active Drive N/A Waymo One Ride-
many more not listed) Mercedes Drive Pilot
Audi Traffic Jam Assist Hailing Service
Volvo Highway Pilot
Assist Nissan ProPILOT 2.0

Radar 1-5 5 5-7 5-9 17

Camera 1-5 5-11 7-12 11-18 18

Lidar 0 Optional 1-5 1-5 5

Map/Positioning SD map SD/HD Map HD Map HD Map HD Map

Total Vehicle
2-10 10-16 13-26 17-32 40
Sensors

S&P Global Mobility @ 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry 19

Sensor outlook driven by ADAS mandates and competition in automated driving

Global Sensor Sales Forecast, millions of units

• Camera sensors lead the way
• Data richness & scalable processing
• Extensive cross-industry experience

• Radar remains capable & cost-effective

• Extensive experience
• Good cost for performance
• Imaging radar improvements

• Lidar growth promising as challenges

are overcome with new products
• OEMs prioritize well-equipped and
high-margin vehicles—within reason
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 • Dependent on OEMs maintaining
Camera Radar Lidar aggressive product plans—both in
Source: IHS Markit, Autonomy Forecasts, August 2022 © 2022 IHS Markit
automated driving and EV platforms

S&P Global Mobility @ 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry 20

Competition for industry-first innovations underpins new aspects of reputation

Lidar / Radar Track

Industry-first 4D imaging radar roll

China-first
4D Radar out in many C-OEMs
Japan-first Lidar
Industry-first Conti ARS540 BMW IX
Lidar in Germany Lidar 2x Livox Lidar in XPENG P5
1x Valeo Scala in Audi A8 5x Valeo Scala in Honda Legend
(no L3 approval) (SAE L3 leasing)

8MP front camera

Industry-first BMW IX
8MP Front Camera
Li Auto One
Industry-first 12 -17 MP
8MP Surround Camera Camera
Camera Track
Zeekr 001

S&P Global Mobility @ 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry 21

LIDAR - Technology Roadmap in China
Middle-long range Lidar as market ice-breaker; Increasing demand on side/corner lidar with extended FOV on autonomy urban use cases

Max Range
Middle-Long range
250m Luminar Iris Innovusion Falcon
SAIC
Lidar as market
@10%Ref. NIO
ice-breaker

Huawei LRL Hesai AT128

200m Changan / GWM / GAC / Lixiang / Jidu / Hiphi /
RoboSense M1
Arcfox / Hozon Lotus / Aiways GWM/ Zeekr / XPENG
@10%Ref.
Mechanical Lidar / Arcfox / SAIC IM /
WM / GAC AION /
widely used in Lucid / FAW / BYD /
Robotaxi industry Lotus
Increasing demand on
DJI Livox HAP/PA solid-state Lidar
150m XPENG / Lixiang e.g. Conti
@10%Ref.

100m
@10%Ref. Increasing demand on side/corner Lidar
with extended FOV on autonomy urban use cases

Scanning
50m type
@10%Ref.

Mechanical Mirror Rotating MEMS Flash OPA

S&P Global Mobility @ 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry 22
China Spotlight – Lidar adoption in domestic OEMS in progress and evolving fast
Selection of lidar supplier relationships with emphasis on multi-sourcing or partnerships

Lidar partnerships

3x Selection of lidar supplier relationships with Besides 1x front long range lidar, more
Supplier
emphasis on multi-sourcing or partnerships “Corner/Side Lidars” fit in the vehicle

Huawei
DJI Livox DJI Livox
GAC x RoboSense Lotus x Hesai
2x Li Auto x Hesai XPENG x RoboSense
RoboSense
supplier GWM WEY x RoboSense GWM Salon x Huawei

WM x RoboSense
NIO x Innovusion
1x SAIC IM x RoboSense Changan AVATR x Huawei
supplier
SAIC R x Luminar BAIC Arcfox x Huawei

Lidar per vehicle

1x Lidar 2x Lidar 3x Lidar 4x Lidar 5x Lidar

S&P Global Mobility @ 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry 23
Market Landscape of Global Automotive Lidar Suppliers
Selection of prominent suppliers

Known OEM Number of Funding Funding Number of Funding Funding

Lidar Company Lidar Company
Brand Contracts Patents (USD $M) round Patents (USD $M) round
RoboSense 18 602 45 Series E LeddarTech 116 264.7 Series D
Huawei 10 87 - Private Oxbotica 2 74.8 Series B
Early Leaders

Continental 8 - - Private Outsight 42 20 Seed Round

Blickfeld 96 41 Series D
Hesai 7 231 602 Series D
Baraja 38 65.2 Series B
Valeo 7 - - Public
Benewake LiDar 20 - Undisclosed
Luminar 6 253 1014.3 Public Sense Photonics 111 47.8 Series A

Fast Followers (27)

Innoviz 6 97 252 Public SiLC Technologies 85 29 Series A
Denso 4 - - Public Lumotive 15 - Undisclosed
DJI Livox 2 - - DJI-owned Xenomatix 63 - Venture
Innovusion 1 70 160 Series B Leishen Intelligent
- 77 Series C
Cepton 1 65 154.5 Public Systems
Near Challengers

AEye 1 95 89.2 Public Surestar - 154.6 Series A

Zvision 16 50 Series C Tanway - - Series A
TetraVue 24 12.2 series A
AEVA 87 368.5 Public
LuminWave - 27.5 Series B
Quanergy 50 155.5 Public
Venture
Ouster - 143 129 Public Seoul Robotics 7 18.1
Funding
Bosch - - Private Newsight Imaging 14 8.2 Series A
Velodyne 354 - Public Fastree3D - - Undisclosed
Mobileye - - Intel-owned … … … …
Source: S&P Global Mobility Autonomy Lidar database and Startup Service

S&P Global Mobility @ 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry 24

 How Lidar Fit into Passenger Vehicle?

Automotive-grade Time to Market

Automotive-grade Performance & Requirement
 Technology maturity
Performance & Req.  Functional performance of Lidar
(MEMS vs Flash vs OPA)
 Vehicle Integration requirement
 Competition with different
(position in grille, headlight,
sensor and sensor types
windshield, side and roof)
(Lidar vs radar vs 4D imaging
 Vehicle verification tests
Mass (fuel consumption impact, reliability,
radar vs 8-17MP cameras)
Production How Lidar fit Time to durability, vibration…etc.)
Capability in passenger Market
vehicle?
Cost Mass Production Capability
 Affordable material price for  Mass production feasibility
OEM (300-1000 USD,
Cost warranty 3-5 years, 200k KM)  On-Time-Delivery (OTD)

 Affordable repair costs for  Conformity of Production (CoP)

consumers

S&P Global Mobility @ 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry 25

Key Takeaway

Autonomy Applications focused on enhancing user experience

• Chinese OEMs followed Tesla NOA (navigation on autopilot) application;
• Similar functions help expand from highway scenario to urban and parking use cases;

Autonomy Sensors:
• Chinese OEMs & suppliers are under fiercely competitive in bring new sensors and bigger numbers to market;
• Lidar is prominent, but also high-resolution 8-17mp cameras and 4D imaging radars;
• Enhanced perception on side/corner Lidar with extended FOV push the limit of performance on autonomy urban use
cases;

S&P Global Mobility @ 2022 Lidar Innovation Technology and Industry 26

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