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A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Continuous impact of solid particles causes severe pipeline wear, and may result in leakage in directional change
Elbow areas such as elbows. Accurate prediction of erosion is essential in the petroleum industry. In this study, a new
Erosion machine learning (ML)-based model for predicting elbow erosion was established. Seven parameters were
Multiphase flow
selected as feature inputs from the fluid characteristics, particle characteristics, and pipe characteristics. The
Swarm intelligence algorithm
Hybrid kernel extreme learning machine
maximum erosion rate was used as the predicted output. Based on the gas–solid flow data, the prediction ac
curacy of different ML models was compared. The kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) model was
considered as the optimal model. For gas–liquid–solid flow, incorporating swarm intelligence (SI) algorithms, the
whale optimization algorithm–hybrid kernel extreme learning machine (WOA–HKELM) erosion prediction model
was proposed; the predictions were compared with the experimental values. The root mean square error (RMSE)
of the prediction was 0.82 × 10− 3, which is consistent with the experimental results. It was also demonstrated
that the model can capture the trend of the influence of mixed dimensionless inputs on the prediction results in
churn and annular flow.
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: zhgwang@xsyu.edu.cn (Z. Wang).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2022.111042
Received 4 June 2022; Received in revised form 23 August 2022; Accepted 4 September 2022
Available online 13 September 2022
0920-4105/© 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Z. Wang et al. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 218 (2022) 111042
other structures by the direction of the liquid–solid flow based on conditions. The model produced moderate errors in stirred flow condi
gravity. tions with high liquid flow rate and high liquid viscosity.
Experiments provide the most reliable and realistic data but labor Tran et al. (2019) proposed the “WearGP” method based on the
and time costs are relatively high. In addition, the method of controlling Gaussian process algorithm and ML method. CFD simulation results
a single variable or multiple variables used in conventional experiments were used as the dataset to compare the numerical accuracy and
cannot accommodate complicated environmental parameters in engi computational efficiency of the “WearGP” and CFD models. The results
neering. Generally, experimental results are only generalizable within a indicated that the ML approach saved time and accurately approximated
limited range and cannot be readily applied to other systems. With the solved CFD values.
development of computer technology, numerical simulation has become Bahrainian et al. (2021) pretreated the dataset using the method of
increasingly popular, gradually becoming an effective low-cost method dimensionality reduction to transform multiple characteristic parame
for erosion prediction (Sheng et al., 2020). ters into functions of dimensionless arrays. Guided by the principle of
Lu and Agrawal (2014) used the Eulerian–Granular method on the Gaussian process regression, a prediction model for standard elbow
basis of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to study erosion with churn flow and annular flow was constructed. The pre
erosion characteristics in oil–gas–water–sand multiphase flow sur diction results were validated using experimental data.
roundings, capturing information on the internal flow conditions and In this study, four elbow erosion prediction models are formulated by
phase distribution in the pipeline. Parsi et al. (2015a) calculated the applying ML methods to the gas–solid flow condition with clear flow
gas–liquid two-phase flow using the multi-fluid VOF model and particle characteristics. The feasibility of ML for elbow erosion prediction is
tracking and erosion prediction models. They obtained an erosion cloud analyzed and the optimal model is obtained. Based on the experimental
map and particle distribution regularity in the churn flow condition. The data in gas–liquid–solid multiphase flow, the model is optimized and an
relationship between the solid particle motion trajectory and the elbow erosion prediction model coupling ML and SI algorithms is established.
erosion distribution was investigated. Yu et al. (2019) conducted CFD The tendency of predicted values with dimensionless mixing parameters
research on wall erosion with polydisperse fluid particle flow in a 90-de is observed in churn flow and annular flow to verify model generaliza
gree standard elbow with a multi-fluid approach. Their modeling results tion performance. The model can be combined with digital twin tech
closely matched the experimental data. Bilal et al. (2021) performed nology to expand the dataset, improving the prediction accuracy and
CFD simulations using elbows with different curvature radii and expanding the application scenarios.
bending angles. The results indicated that erosion rate decreases as
curvature radius increases, and that the erosion rate in 90-degree elbows 2. Modeling approach
was twice that in 45-degree elbows.
With the complexity of the fluid–solid phase interactions and 2.1. Extreme learning machine
multiphase flow interfaces, CFD-based multiphase flow erosion predic
tion is complex; multiphase flow is non-constant, with different flow Huang et al. (2004) presented the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM),
regimes. CFD-based methods are time-consuming and require significant a revolutionary neural network technique. Its network structure is the
computational resources. same as that of the single hidden layer feedforward neural network
Previous erosion prediction research has often been based on offline (SLFN). Its structure is illustrated in Fig. 1 (Jamei et al., 2021).
laboratory data and steady-state CFD simulation results, without a The training phase of ELM is not a gradient-based backward propa
linkage between data interfaces and production sites. To more accu gation algorithm as in traditional neural networks, but an arrangement
rately predict the erosion rate, new methods of studying pipeline erosion that randomly generates input layer weights and hidden layer biases
rates with ML and intelligence algorithms have emerged in recent years (Wang et al., 2011). In this network, only the hidden layer nodes are
(Karimi et al., 2020). These new algorithms provide new approaches for required to be set and training is completed by calculating the output
accurately predicting the degree of pipeline thinning, ensuring pro weights by least squares. The test data uses the derived weights to
duction safety. In the future, with increasing oil and gas pipeline safety calculate the predicted output. ELM is superior in learning rate and
management requirements, pipeline intelligence and digital twins will generalization ability to the support vector regression (SVR) and
be incorporated into the design, construction, and operating processes back-propagation neural network (BPNN), and is primarily used in cases
(W. Wang et al., 2021). With the vast amount of available data and involving instantaneous calculation (Ulas et al., 2020).
advances in algorithms and computing power, ML is advantageous in The neural network model output is represented by the matrix (Ding
terms of time and cost. et al., 2015),
For the last two decades, ML has been used in oil and gas storage and
f (x) = h(x) × β = H × β = L (1)
transportation (Chen et al., 2022). Jones et al. (1997) described the
application of artificial intelligence-based techniques to specific prob
β = H∗ × L (2)
lems encountered during operation of oil and gas transportation facil
ities to highlight the advantages of these approaches. where x is the network input; h(x) and H are the feature mapping matrix;
Shamshirband et al. (2015) constructed an adaptive neuro-fuzzy β is the output weight; L is the desired output, and H* is the generalized
inference system to predict the maximum erosion rate of 90-degree el inverse matrix of H.
bows. The training data was obtained using CFD simulations. The root To achieve a more stable model, a unit matrix I and penalty coeffi
mean square error (RMSE) and determination coefficient were consid cient C are imposed (Ding et al., 2015). The output weights of the least
ered as evaluation indicators for prediction. The results indicated that squares solution are shown in Equation (3).
the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system could improve prediction ( )− 1
accuracy and generalization ability. I
β = H T HH T + L (3)
Pandya et al. (2017) used artificial neural networks (ANN) combined C
with CFD to develop a particle erosion model with 90-degree elbows that
included Bayesian regularization to reduce overfitting. Compared to 2.2. Kernel extreme learning machine
shear stress erosion models, turbulent kinetic energy erosion models,
and Baker–Hughes results, the prediction errors were reduced by Incorporating the concept of kernel function in SVM into ELM, the
approximately 20%. Kernel Extreme Learning Machine (KELM) is produced. With the faster
Zahedi et al. (2018) applied a random forest model to predict erosion learning speed of ELM, the prediction performance is improved by
using experimental data from a standard elbow in multiphase flow mapping the low-dimensional input space to the high-dimensional
2
Z. Wang et al. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 218 (2022) 111042
space. The traditional activation function is substituted with a kernel intelligent groups with self-organizing behavior based on aggregation of
function (Mei et al., 2019). individual swarm members that exhibit independent intelligence (Phan
The kernel matrix of the KELM is expressed in Equation (4). et al., 2020). As an intelligent behavior algorithm, SI is ultimately pro
( ) ( ) duced by the interaction between simple individuals or between com
ΩKELM = h(xi )h xj = K xi , xj (4)
munity and environment. Individuals in a community follow a simple
This matrix is used instead of the random matrix HHT in the ELM. behavioral code, with no uniform central control between communities.
The kernel function is used to map the input features to a high- Individual interactions eventually manifest as intelligence for the whole
dimensional hidden feature space, enabling the KELM model to better population (Argatov, 2019). With their expandability and generality, SI
generalize. The weight and model outputs are expressed as (He et al., algorithms are widely used in fields such as regression prediction and
2018), image recognition (Sun et al., 2020).
Researchers have recently proposed many new SI algorithms
β = (ΩKELM + 1/C)− 1 L (5) including the Butterfly Optimization Algorithm (BOA), Marine Predator
⎡ ⎤T ⎡ ⎤T Optimization Algorithm (MPA), Gray Wolf Optimization Algorithm
K(x, x1 ) (
I
) K(x, x1 ) (GWO), Sooty Tern Optimization Algorithm (STOA), Sine Cosine Opti
⎣
f (x) = ... ⎦ ΩKELM + ⎣
L = ... ⎦ β. (6) mization Algorithm (SCA), Chimpanzee Optimization Algorithm
C
K(x, xN ) K(x, xN ) (ChOA), and Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) (Phan et al., 2020).
As a novel class of stochastic search algorithms, the SI algorithm has
2.3. Hybrid kernel extreme learning machine demonstrated promising performance in optimal solution problems.
Optimization of ML model parameters with SI algorithms is a popular
The kernel function is a key determinant of the performance of KELM research topic (Kicska and Kiss, 2021).
regression, routinely classified into two types (Ding et al., 2016). A local As indicated by the KELM output format, the regulation ability of the
kernel function is represented by a Gaussian kernel, with better learning regularization parameter C is critical. From the form of the hybrid kernel
ability. The other is a global kernel function represented by a polynomial function expression, four kernel parameters, σ, γ, d, η, must be deter
kernel, with strong generalization ability but weak learning ability. The mined. The model involves identifying these five parameters. The
conflict between fitting and generalization is not well-balanced by a traditional method to determine the value of each parameter based on
single kernel function. A hybrid kernel function is created by combining manual selection is inefficient and inaccurate. Thus, the SI algorithm is
both kernel functions, expressed as (Ahuja and Vishwakarma, 2021), used in the parameter search optimization of the HKELM model.
( )
− ‖x − xi ‖2
KRBF (x, xi ) = exp (7) 3. Prediction results
σ
2
3
Z. Wang et al. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 218 (2022) 111042
Table 1
Experimental data parameter range and origin.
Reference Pipe material D R dp VSG VSL μL
mm D um m/s m/s cP
Salama (1998) Carbon Steel 25.4, 50.8 1.5, 5 150, 250 8–30 0.2–5.8 1
Mazumder (2004) Carbon Steel 25.4 1.5 150 9.8–34.3 0.03–0.3 1
Pyboyina (2006) Carbon Steel 25.4 1.5 150 27.4 0.03–0.3 1
Parsi et al. (2015b) SS-316 76.2 1.5 20, 150, 300 9.8–27.3 0.09–0.76 1
Vieira et al. (2017) SS-316 76.2 1.5 150, 300 15.2–48.8 0.01–0.18 1,10
Zahedi et al. (2018) SS-316 101.6 1.5 75, 300 15–36 0.01–0.28 1
4
Z. Wang et al. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 218 (2022) 111042
5
Z. Wang et al. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 218 (2022) 111042
Fig. 6. Comparison of predicted and experimental data distributions for five-fold cross-validation.
6
Z. Wang et al. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 218 (2022) 111042
Fig. 6. (continued).
Table 2
Model parameters.
Model Parameters
the wall and increasing the erosion rate. The WOA–HKELM model ad
dresses the effects of changes in both factors and forecasts their trends
accordingly.
Bahrainian et al. (2021) integrated the VSG and VSL, and proposed a
dimensionless number VSG/VSL for measuring the influence of both on
erosion. Fig. 10 indicates that the erosion rate increases in a near power
series with velocity ratio with particle sizes of 150 μm and 300 μm.
Erosion rate tends to increase the velocity ratio in a near power series.
The increase in the velocity ratio can only be attributed to an in
crease in VSG or a decrease in VSL. Both conditions lead to thinning or Fig. 7. Evaluation index values for each model.
7
Z. Wang et al. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 218 (2022) 111042
The increasing liquid flow velocity reduces the pipeline erosion rate
due to the increase in liquid film thickness. The increase in liquid ve
locity also enables more particles to be trapped in the liquid film area
and impact the wall, leading to increased erosion. These two factors are
interrelated and balance each other.
Fig. 12 shows the effect of VSL on erosion rate in annular flow for two
pipe diameters, 76.2 mm and 101.6 mm. Neither exhibits a single trend
as the fluid flow velocity increases. With a pipe diameter of 76.2 mm,
erosion first decreases and then increases; with a pipe diameter of 101.6
mm, erosion first increases and then decreases. Due to the influence of
pipe diameter, different erosion rates are observed. Bourgoyne (1989)
indicated that the erosion rate decreased with increasing bending
diameter ratio for the same pipe diameter. After reaching a certain ratio,
the bend path lengthens, the flow in the pipeline flattens, and the impact
of solid particles on the wall is weakened. Fig. 13 shows the influence of
VSG on pipe erosion rate in annular flow at 0.1 m/s and 0.01 m/s VSL.
With VSG increasing, the pipe erosion rate generally tends to increase
linearly.
Annular flow occurs with high gas velocity and low liquid velocity.
Erosion is more severe than with other flow patterns owing to high gas
velocity. In this flow pattern, gas flows at high speed in the central zone
of the pipe; the liquid flows slowly in the form of a homogeneous film
Fig. 10. Variation in erosion rate with VSG/VSL with different particle sizes.
close to the pipe wall (Nimwegen et al., 2018), as shown in Fig. 8.
8
Z. Wang et al. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 218 (2022) 111042
5. Conclusion
Remix =
ρVm D
(11) Zhiguo Wang: Conceptualization, Writing – review & editing, Su
μL pervision, Funding acquisition. Haoyu Chen: Methodology, Validation,
Formal analysis, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing,
where Remix is the mixing Reynolds number; Vm is the mixing average
Visualization, Software. Meng Wang: Methodology, Validation. Xu
velocity, and ρ is the gas density. Zhang: Data curation, Investigation. Yihua Dou: Conceptualization,
The erosion measurement is set as Er ρD2 . It is a dimensionless
Writing – review & editing.
number; Er is the erosion rate. Fig. 14 shows the change in elbow erosion
rate with mixing Reynolds number at different pipe diameters in annular
Declaration of competing interest
flow. With higher mixing Reynolds numbers, pipeline erosion is exac
erbated and Er ρD2 exhibits a power growth. The error between the The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
prediction and the experimental value is relatively small. interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
This performance validates the importance of the mixing Reynolds the work reported in this paper.
Fig. 12. Variation in erosion rate with VSL with different pipe diameters.
9
Z. Wang et al. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 218 (2022) 111042
Fig. 13. Variation in erosion rate with VSG with different VSL.
Fig. 14. Variation in erosion rate with Remix with different particle sizes.
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