1) Essays are written individually or in small groups (up to 3 persons).

2) The exact size of group does not influence grading.

3) You may choose one of following topics or propose your own:
a) Forecasting of [some indicators] using [some other indicators]
b) Forecasting of [national currency] exchange rate with respect to [Central Bank /
government / etc. policy]
c) Forecasting of [price indicator] with respect to [Central Bank / government / etc. policy]
d) Forecasting of [some commodity price] with respect to [other commodity prices]
e) Forecasting of [some country’s GDP] with respect to [other commodity or stock market
situation]
f) Forecasting of [some country’s GDP] with respect to [Central Bank / government / etc.
policy]
g) Any other sensible topic about some economic or financial indicator using some othe
indicator(-s)
h) If you want to write about something completely different – please, contact me.
4) The topics are chosen by 1 March 2024
(link to Google Table will be provided in SmartLMS)
5) The essays are to be submitted by 19 March 2024 23:59
Essay are to be submitted auzhegov@hse.ru
Please, name your letter topic as follows: Forecasting in economics and finance Essay
6) Late submissions are penalized: 1 hour late = -2 grade points.
7) Submissions after 20 March 2024 23:59 are not accepted
8) The essay includes:
a) A brief description of data collection and data preparation process (data sources, frequency,
available period, methodology, descriptive statistics: mean, st. dev., min/max value, visual
data representation)
b) Estimation and forecasting performance comparison of several different models / model
specifications
c) Out-of-sample forecasts / scenario forecasts based on estimated models
d) Some discussion of results. Try to use your knowledge in economics.
9) Recommended size: 6-7 pages for small group projects, including graphs and tables. Font size 14.
10) Grading:
All the members of a group get the same grade