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HOUSING

PROJECT
STUDIO
| Public Housing Redevelopment
GHB Society, Chandkheda
PUH21178
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PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT
| Table of Content

List of Tables 5
List of Figures 7

1. Introduction 8
1. Studio Brief 9
2. Site Selection 10
2. City Overview 14
1. Ahmedabad City – Introduction 15
2. Ahmedabad City – Real Estate Market 17
3. Site Assessment 22
1. Site Location 23
2. Regulation Compliance on the Site 24
3. Policy Framework 25
4. Current Scenario 27
5. SWOT Analysis 28
4. Micro Market Study 30
1. Locality Analysis 31
2. Micro Market Analysis 32
5. Iteration 37
1. Case Study | Practice in Sector 38
2. Assumptions from Micro Market 39
3. Tentative Product Mix and Iterations 40
6. Project Brief 42
1. Product Mix 43
2. Conceptual Layout 44
3. Unique Selling Point 45
7. Project Phasing 46
1. Phasing 47
8. Financial Feasibility 50
1. Cash Flow Analysis 51
2. Business Model 52
9. Risk Management 55
1. Risk Identification and Mitigation 56

Conclusion

Abbreviations
Bibliography
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PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT
| List of Tables
1. Table 1 – List of Selected Sites 10
2. Table 2 – Site Score and Preferred Sites 11
3. Table 3 – Upcoming Infrastructure Projects 16
4. Table 4 – Characteristics of Major Markets 17
5. Table 5 – Locations Within Different Markets 18
6. Table 6 – Micro Market Health 20
7. Table 7 – Prevailing Regulations on the Subject Site 24
8. Table 8 – Societies Mapping 27
9. Table 9 – Study Projects for Micro Market Analysis 33
10. Table 10 – Project wise Product Mix 33
11. Table 11 – Plot Area Calculation 41
12. Table 12 – Iterations 41
13. Table 13 – Project Phasing 47
14. Table 14 – Cash Inflow and Out Flow 51
15. Table 15 – Limited Liable Partnership 53
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PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT
| List of Figures
1. Figure 1 – Methodology of Studio 9
2. Figure 2 – Identified Sites across 6 Wards of AMC 10
3. Figure 3 – Understanding of Delphi Method 11
4. Figure 4 – Site #15 : Hanspura 11
5. Figure 5 – Site #11 : Hanspura 11
6. Figure 6 – Site #12 : Muthiya 12
7. Figure 7 – Site #3 : Chandkheda 12
8. Figure 8 – Snapshot of Ahmedabad City 15
9. Figure 9 – Map of Ahmedabad City 15
10. Figure 10 – Ahmedabad City BRTS Map 15
11. Figure 11 –Ahmedabad City – Gandhinagar City Metro Rail Map 16
12. Figure 12 –Economic and Infrastructure Projects in Ahmedabad 16
13. Figure 13 –Development Pattern of Ahmedabad City 17
14. Figure 14 –Distribution of Major Markets of the City 17
15. Figure 15 – Locations Within Different Markets 18
16. Figure 16 – Micro-market Split of New Launches in H1 2021 and H1 2022 18
17. Figure 17 – Micro-market Split of New Sales in H1 2021 and H1 2022 18
18. Figure 18 – Launches and Sales Trends 19
19. Figure 19 – Ticket Size Wise Sales Distribution 19
20. Figure 20 – Typology Wise Sales Distribution 19
21. Figure 21 – Site Location with the Context of the City 23
22. Figure 22 – Position of the Site in the Surrounding 23
23. Figure 23 – Applicable Base Zone and Overlay Zone 24
24. Figure 24 – Development Regulations on Site 24
25. Figure 25 – Understanding of the Policy 25
26. Figure 26 – Process of Redevelopment 25
27. Figure 27 – Role of Stakeholders 26
28. Figure 28 – Current Built vs Open Condition 27
29. Figure 29 – Societies Mapping 27
30. Figure 30 – Aerial View of the Society 27
31. Figure 31 – Non-residential Units 27
32. Figure 32 – Open Spaces 27
33. Figure 33 – Original and Incremented Residential Units 27
34. Figure 34 – Non-Residential Units Mapping 27
35. Figure 35 – Proximity to BRTS Corridor 28
36. Figure 36 – Resistance from Remaining Society 28
37. Figure 37 – Frontage 28
38. Figure 38 – Snapshot of Chandkheda - Motera Ward 31
39. Figure 39 – Ahmedabad City Ward Map 31
40. Figure 40 – Social Infrastructure of the Ward 31
41. Figure 41 – Economy Generator 31
42. Figure 42 – Micro-Market of Chandkheda-Motera Ward 32
43. Figure 43 – Study Projects in Radius of 1 km 32
44. Figure 44 – Market Rate and Jantri Rate of Study Projects 33
45. Figure 45 – Project wise Maximum Permissible FSI and Consumed FSI 34
46. Figure 46 – Project wise Break up of Residential and Commercial BUA 34
47. Figure 47 – Product wise Composition of BUA 34
48. Figure 48 – Unit Typology wise Range of Unit Size 34
49. Figure 49 – Unit Typology Wise Launch and Sale of Units and BUA 35
50. Figure 50 – Absorption Rate in the Study Projects 35
51. Figure 51 – Year wise Sale Price Range per sqmt and YoY Growth 35
52. Figure 52 – Ekta Festival – Public Housing Redevelopment 39
53. Figure 53 – Distribution of Built-Up Area 43
54. Figure 54 – Distribution of Units 43
55. Figure 55 – Distribution of Ground Coverage 43
56. Figure 56 – Site Layout 44
57. Figure 57 – 3D View of Site 45
58. Figure 58 – Site Layout 45
59. Figure 59 – Phasing 47
60. Figure 60 – Year Wise Distribution of BUA and Units 48
61. Figure 61 – Project Wise Distribution of BUA and Units 48
62. Figure 62 – Phase Wise Distribution of BUA and Units 48
63. Figure 63 – Cumulative Cash Out Flow and In Flow 51
64. Figure 64 – Break Even Point 52
65. Figure 65 – Revised Break Even Point 52
66. Figure 66 – Sales Strategy for Residential Units 53
67. Figure 67 – Sales Strategy for Commercial Units 53
1 | INTRODUCTION

PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT


Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

1. Studio Brief
Cities across India are developing, and the developing cities are grappling with varying degrees of housing
unaffordability as per the specifications of local land and labor market. Policy making and planning ensures
access to decent affordable housing for different income groups which requires a multi-pronged approach.
Using applied knowledge about evidence-based policies, and the local real-estate market to formulate
housing project life cycle for range of housing submarkets and supply mechanisms.

The studio focused on developing students’ exposure to the dynamic housing & real-estate
AIM

market and analyzing and proposing optimal development of land parcel (brownfield /
greenfield) considering underlying site context, applicable legal norms, existing macro and
micro real estate market scenario.
OBJECTIVE

To select a potential site for real estate development through various assessment parameters
and carry out macro and micro market to formulate viable proposal.

Developing a complete project proposal with an implementable project cycle through iterative
process of product mix, inflow and outflow assumptions.

2. Identifying land with potential 4. Macro market and micro 6. Financial model and
of real estate project market analysis sensitivity analysis

01 02 03 04 05 06

1. Introduction to dynamic 3. Analysis of land for potential 5. Project formulation,


housing and real estate market through Delphi technique conceptual layout and phasing
Figure 1 – Methodology of Studio
Source. Studio Guideline

Apart from this, throughout the studio, extensive amount of guest lectures on the relevant topic from
professors and professional who are working in and around the sector helped to understand the complexity
a real estate project has and ways to tackle the issues.
Site visits of small-scale project, mid-scale project, and redevelopment project gave hand on experience
about the practice that are performed in the sector and gave a reality check to understand the hurdles and
how to mitigate them.

1. Mr. Anushrav Bhatt


GUEST LECTURES

2. Mr. Abhijit 3. Mrs. Anal Vaishnav 4. Mr. Dhaval Prasanna


Session on Real Estate Talked about the investors point of Case study on master plan Session on Macro and
development in compliance with view/criterion while selecting development and real estate micro analysis on a real
GDCR the site before investing development estate project management
SITE VISIT

1. Mr. Mitesh Bhuva 2. Mr. Malay Patel 3. Mr. Anand Patel


Developer’s journey on a real Market research Case study on Gujarat Housing
estate project - from inception to and feasibility study for a Board – public housing
conclusion of a project real estate development redevelopment

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 INTRODUCTION N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

2. Site Selection
As a part of the Housing Project Studio, land potential analysis was carried out for different 15 sites across
different 6 wards of Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation. With the help of Google Earth Imagery and
surveying these wards to find potential sites who has area of 8 to 10 hector, 15 sites were shortlisted who
has different types of ownership, from public land to private land, and single owner to multiple owners.

1 – Kali_3
2 – Chandkheda Motera_4
3 – Sabarmati_5
6 4 – Ranip_6
4 5 – Sardarnagar_12

5 3 7 6 – Nobalnagar_13

2
2
1
1 14

3 13
9 10 5 12
8
4 6
15
11

Figure 2 – Identified Sites across 6 Wards of AMC


Source. Google Earth Imagery (Retrieved in August 2022)

Sr No Ward Name Site Name Area (Ha)


1 Kali Kaligam 8.6
2 Chandkheda Motera Jantanagar 13.2
3 Chandkheda Motera GHB Housing 15.7
4 Chandkheda Motera GHB Housing 14
5 Chandkheda Motera GHB Housing 16
6 Chandkheda Motera Metronagar 10.9
7 Chandkheda Motera Chandkheda 19.4
8 Sabarmati Dharamnagar 7.95
9 Sardarnagar Hansol 9.18
10 Sardarnagar Hansol 7.43
11 Nobalnagar Hanspura 7
12 Nobalnagar Muthiya 6.5
13 Nobalnagar Naroda 8.8
14 Nobalnagar Muthiya 11.6
15 Nobalnagar Hanspura 5.5
Table 1 – Identified Sites and Area Table
Source. Google Earth Imagery (Retrieved in August 2022)

To understand the potential of these sites, Delphi Method was applied. Parameters related to land were
divided into 5 parts under 1. Spatial, 2. Legal, 3. Financial, 4. Social, 5. Environmental.
Delphi Method
Delphi method is a process used to arrive at a group opinion or decision by surveying a panel of experts. For
each group of parameters, 10 experts were chosen. The experts varied from developer to urban planner to
end user. Each expert gave weightage to the parameters according to the importance, preference, and
relevance. Total of the weightage of all the parameters should be 100.
Spatial Legal Social Environmental Financial
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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 INTRODUCTION N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

After attaining the weightage of each parameter,


scale of 1 to 5 was assigned to each site for each
parameter according to the site condition and
relevance. Final score of the site is calculated by
multiplying the weightage given to each parameter
and scale assigned to each parameter for each site.
As each parameter has 100 weightage and
maximum scale is 5, each parameter has score of
500, totaling it 2500 for all 5 parameters.
Selected sites has various concerns that affected Figure 3 – Understanding of Delphi Method
the score of such sites. Source. Author’s Interpretation

Land Potential Analysis


After applying Delphi method to all the sites, here is the final result for all 15 sites. Highlighted sites have
higher score and preferred.
Sr No Ward Name Site Name Area (Ha) Score (out of 2500,%)
8 Sabarmati Dharamnagar 7.95 2035 (81.4%)
2 Chandkheda Motera Jantanagar 13.29 2020 (80.8%)
15 Nobalnagar Hanspura 5.5 2018 (80.7%)
14 Nobalnagar Muthiya 11.6 2003 (80.1%)
11 Nobalnagar Hanspura 7 1988 (79.5%)
12 Nobalnagar Muthiya 6.5 1968 (78.7%)
3 Chandkheda Motera Chandkheda 15.7 1905 (76.2%)
5 Chandkheda Motera IOC Road 16 1883 (75.3%)
4 Chandkheda Motera IOC Road 14 1875 (75.0%)
6 Chandkheda Motera Metronagar 10.9 1818 (72.7%)
13 Nobalnagar Naroda 8.8 1808 (72.3%)
7 Chandkheda Motera Off New C G Road 19.4 1763 (70.5%)
9 Sardarnagar Hansol 9.18 1648 (65.9%)
1 Kaligam Kaligam 8.6 1623 (64.9%)
10 Sardarnagar Hansol 7.43 1598 (63.9%)
Table 2– Site Score and Preferred Sites
Source. Primary Survey

Location Hanspura
Area 5.5 Ha
Development Greenfield
TP Scheme Muthiya Hanspura 109
Amalgamation Yes
Ownership Private + Public
Land Use R1
Overlay Zone -
Comments Land to be bought
Site Viable
Figure 4 – Site #15 Hanspura
Source. Google Earth Imagery (Retrieved in August 2022); Primary Survey

Location Hanspura
Area 7 Ha
Development Greenfield
TP Scheme Muthiya Hanspura 109
Amalgamation Yes
Ownership Private
Land Use R1
Overlay Zone -
Comments Linear plot
Site Viable
Figure 5 – Site #11 Hanspura
Source. Google Earth Imagery (Retrieved in August 2022); Primary Survey
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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 INTRODUCTION N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment
Location Muthiya
Area 6.5 Ha
Development Greenfield
TP Scheme Muthiya Hanspura 75
Amalgamation Yes
Ownership Private + Public
Land Use R1
Overlay Zone TOD
Comments Land to be bought
Site Viable
Figure 6– Site #12 Muthiya
Source. Google Earth Imagery (Retrieved in August 2022); Primary Survey

Location Chandkheda
Area 15.7 Ha
Development Brownfield
TP Scheme Non-TP Area
Division Yes
Ownership Public
Land Use R1
Overlay Zone TOD
Comments 40% Land Deduction
Site Viable
Figure 7– Site #3 Chandkheda
Source. Google Earth Imagery (Retrieved in August 2022); Primary Survey

After land potential analysis, top 7 sites are shortlisted for development, out of which, 3 sites are
brownfield, and 4 sites are greenfield. Dharamnagar site (#8), which has the highest score, and is a
brownfield development site (co-op society), is not viable, as TP roads are cutting through the site. Same,
Jantanagar (#2) which is a brownfield development site (co-op society), and Muthiya (#14) greenfied
development site has TP roads cutting through, making them un-viable for development as per studio
guidelines. Otherwise, all remaining 4 sites are viable for developments.

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Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

2 | CITY OVERVIEW

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

1. Ahmedabad City – Introduction


Ahmedabad, with a population of 5.8 million in the
municipal area and 6.3 million in the urban
agglomeration region in 2011, is India’s seventh
biggest metropolis and the state's largest city.
Ahmedabad has grown as a key economic and
industrial center in India. It is India's second largest
cotton producer, earning it the nickname
"Manchester of India.“. The eastern and western
halves of the city are separated by the river
Sabarmati. The city is devoid of any significant
physical features other from the river.

Figure 8 – Snapshot of Ahmedabad City Figure 9 – Map of Ahmedabad City


Source. Census 2011 Source. mapsofindia

Ahmedabad Infrastructure
Ahmedabad is served by seven main highways and one expressway. The National Highway No. 8, which
connects Delhi and Mumbai, goes through Ahmedabad. National Expressway 1 connects the city to
Vadodara. State highways link it to Bhavnagar, Nadiad, Mehsana, Surendranagar, Bhuj, Rajkot, and
Gandhinagar. The newly expanded corridor connecting Ahmedabad and Pune via four additional
metropolitan cities (Vadodara, Surat, Mumbai, and Pune) has improved the efficiency of road traffic along
this corridor. All of these elements have contributed to the region's axial expansion. Ahmedabad is also well
connected with major domestic and international cities by airway due to the presence of domestic and
international air terminals
In order to run and operate BRTS buses,
Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation established a
"Special Purpose Vehicle" named Ahmedabad
Janmarg Ltd. Ahmedabad Janmarg Ltd is a 100%
subsidiary of Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation
and is incorporated under the Companies Act of
1956. In order to deliver quicker, more dependable,
environmentally sustainable, and technologically
sophisticated public transportation, Ahmedabad
Janmarg Ltd is devoted to operating and running
BRTS services for Ahmedabad residents. According
to the Memorandum of Agreement, the Municipal
Commissioner is the Chairman of the Ahmedabad
Janmarg Ltd, and the following are the company's
Board of Directors. Ahmedabad Janmarg Ltd is in Figure 10 – Ahmedabad City BRTS Map
charge of operating buses, determining fares, Source. wikimediacommons

maintaining bus lanes, and maintaining bus shelters. Ahmedabad Janmarg Ltd also has advertising rights
along the BRTS route and offers Pay & Park services to the citizens of Ahmedabad City.

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 CITY OVERVIEW N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

The Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar Metro train project is


being marketed with the goal of delivering safe,
rapid, and environmentally friendly transportation
services to the people at cheap costs while also
decreasing traffic congestion. The metro rail project
is enhancing integration with AMTS, BRTS, railways,
and other public transportation systems. The metro
is mostly elevated, with ballast-free tracks, air-
conditioned coaches, GPS-based rail tracking
system, train destination signs, and stations with
support infrastructure such as automated fare
collecting, parking facilities, and so on. North South
Corridor is starting from Motera stadium to APMC
whereas East West Corridor is starting from Thaltej
Gam to Vastral Gam. Phase-I extension, Phase-II,
Phase-III will include connecting Sardar Vallabhbhai
Patel International Airport to the Metro network
through Motera. The services to Gandhinagar, GIFT
City, etc. will be extended from Motera towards
North. Also, other parts of the city that have been
left as of now e.g. Civil Hospital, etc. will be
connected. Most probably, if commissioned, the
proposed Fedara International Airport, Dholera SIR,
etc. will be connected to metro too, which will be Figure 11 –Ahmedabad City – Gandhinagar City Metro Rail Map
Source. Gujaratmetrorail
after 10 years from now.

Ahmedabad, known as the "Manchester of the


East," has historically been a hub for industry. The
city has primarily relied on the textile, chemical,
pharmaceutical, gem, and jewelry sectors for its
economic growth. An emerging automobile hub is
Ahmedabad. GIFT City

Projects Description
Work on the Ahmedabad- Dholera
DMIC stretch, the largest node on the DMIC,
has begun.
Ahmedabad is close to the Mandal-
SIR Behcaraji SIR and Dholera SIR.
Commencing metro rail connecting
GMRCL Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar.
The international financial centre
GIFT City coming up in Gandhinagar is very
close from Ahmedabad
Going forward, Ahmedabad will have
MAHSR bullet train connectivity with Mumbai. BRTS & Metro Network

Table 3 – Upcoming Infrastructure Projects Figure 12 –Economic and Infrastructure Projects in Ahmedabad
Source. Knight Frank report: Gujarat’s shining jewels Source. Development Plan Studio S2022, CEPT University

Apart from this, DMIC – Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor, and DFC – Dedicated Freight Corridor which
connects to Delhi and Mumbai, cross through Ahmedabad, making Ahmedabad a vital city for industrial and
logistic development. These will support the GIDC estates in the city such as Naroda, Odhav, Vatva,
Sanand, Kathwada.

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 CITY OVERVIEW N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

2. Ahmedabad City – Real Estate Market


The western region of Ahmedabad Municipal
Corporation (AMC) is growing faster than the
eastern region. This is due to the city's population
saturation. After the 1980s, regions such as Satellite,
Vastrapur, Jodhpur, Gurukul, and others began to
grow as residential neighborhoods. During this time,
residential construction was mostly comprised of
individual plotting plans, bungalows, and a few
apartment projects. The city's business growth has
not been concentrated in a single region designated
as CBD over the years. Commercial growth has
primarily occurred along major thoroughfares such
as Ashram Road and C.G. Road. Prahaladnagar,
which is ideally placed near the S.G Highway and
renowned residential neighborhoods like as
Bodakdev, Thaltej, Satellite, Chandkheda-Motera,
and forthcoming residential neighborhoods, has
become a new commercial development hotspot.
The construction of the Sardar Patel Outer Ring
Road, the Metro Rail Project, and new town planning
initiatives are transforming the city's residential and Figure 13 –Development Pattern of Ahmedabad City
Source. Google Map, Author’s Interpretation
commercial real estate.

The city can be divided into 7 major micro markets


covering the city and suburbs based on the
characteristics of the area. The eastern central part
of the city has traditional type of settlement and
comprises the walled city area. The belt from
Naroda to Narol is emerging primarily as residential
belt, especially around SP Ring Road. Western part
(CBD) started developing as residential areas for
the middle and higher middle-income groups after
the construction of the bridges across the river
Sabarmati. Typology of residential development in
western part of Ahmedabad is mainly low-rise
residential apartment complexes, independent
bungalows and row houses. The area beyond SP
Ring Road, Western Suburb, has two upcoming
townships. Northern suburb has seen upsurge in
last three to five years' time with Chandkheda and
Motera taking lead. The southern suburb is nascent
market with houses in lower ticket size category. Figure 14 –Distribution of Major Markets of the City
Source. Google Map; Development Plan Studio, S2022, CEPT University; Author’s Interpretation

Markets Major Locations Growth Potential Characteristics


Western CG Road, Ashram Road, Saturated • The most vibrant market as of now.
Central & CBD Naranpura, Prahladnagar, • Residential segment consists of bungalows, row houses,
Bodakdev, Satellite, low-rise and high-rise apartments.
Vastrapur, Vejalpur, Paldi • Retail segment consists of malls and high-street retail.
• Commercial segment consists of government as well as
private offices.
Eastern Central Maninagar, Shahibaug, Saturated • The oldest settlement of the city.
Kalupur, Saraspur, Kankaria, • The real estate development has saturated in this area.
Dudeshwar • New developments are mainly seen WRT the
redevelopment of the old structures only.

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 CITY OVERVIEW N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment
Markets Major Locations Growth Potential Characteristics
Western SBD Ambli, Thaltej, Ognaj Developed • The emerging market of the city wr.t. Residential
and commercial segments.
Western Sub Bopal, Ghuma, Shela, Shilaj, Developing • Majority of the developments are plotting and
Urbans Rakanpur, Santej, Sarkhej- bungalow schemes.
Sanand Road • The suburb has major industrial settlement.
• Out of 5 townships existing in the city, 2 are located
in this suburb.
• High land availability.
Northern Sub Chandkheda, Motera, Emerging • The emerging market of the city in the respective
Urbans Adalaj, Sabarmati, Gota, direction.
Chandoliya, Sughad, New • Primarily is a residential market with the oldest
Ranip settlement being Sabarmati area.
• ONGC – one of the biggest industries is located in
this suburb.
• Out of 5 townships existing in the city, 3 are located
in this suburb.
Eastern Sub Naroda, Nikol, Vastral Emerging • Primarily an industrial settlement.
Urbans • Upcoming residential market along the ring road.
Southern Sub Lamba, Aslali, Sanathal, Emerging • Primarily an industrial and warehousing settlement.
Urbans Narol • Real estate market at nascent stage. Development
is seen more in the terms of low cost housing.
Table 4 – Characteristics of Major Markets
Source. Primary Survey

No Established No Upcoming
1 Old City 1 Gota
2 Shahibaug 2 Shilaj
3 Maninagar 3 Sughad / Koba
4 Naranpura 4 Nava Naroda
5 Sabarmati 5 Narol
6 Paldi 6 New Ranip
7 Jodhpur 7 Vaishnodevi Circle
No Developing No Developing
1 Satellite 6 Thaltej
2 Bodakdev 7 Prahladnagar
3 Vastrapur 8 Chandkheda
4 Bopal 9 Motera
5 Ambli
Table 5 – Locations Within Different Markets Figure 15 – Locations Within Different Markets
Source. Primary Survey Source. Google Map; Development Plan Studio, S2022, CEPT University; Author’s Interpretation

H2 2022 29% 26% 22% 12% 10% H2 2022 29% 26% 23% 13% 10%

H1 2021 22% 34% 14% 11% 18% H1 2021 32% 25% 19% 15% 9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

North West East Central South North West East Central South

Figure 16 – Micro-market Split of New Launches in H1 2021 and H1 2022 Figure 17 – Micro-market Split of New Sales in H1 2021 and H1 2022
Source. Knight Frank Research 2022 Source. Knight Frank Research 2022

While demand has gradually increased, developers have been quick to respond with project launches in
order to profit on the improved mood. In H1 2022, 10,385 units were launched, representing a 67% increase
year over year. Homebuyers were eager to look for residences on the periphery that would provide them
with a major lifestyle change. During H1 2022, planned developments in gated communities remained
popular among homeowners and investors.
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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 CITY OVERVIEW N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

12000 100%

50%
10000
0%

8000 -50%
No. of Units

-100%
6000
-150%

4000 -200%

-250%
2000
-300%

0 -350%
H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1
2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022

Launches Sales Unsold Inventory

Figure 18 – Launches and Sales Trends


Source. Knight Frank Research 2022

The COVID epidemic had a significant impact on the Ahmedabad residential market, with home sales
volumes dropping 69% year on year when the pandemic struck in H1 2020. The market, on the other hand,
has slowly recovered since then, with sales volumes growing in each succeeding month, despite the fact
that the second wave was more severe in terms of infection incidence and mortality rate. Despite the
introduction of the Omicron model earlier this year, this recovery has been accelerated in H1 2022, with
sales quantities approaching pre-pandemic levels. Sales increased by 95% year on year to 8,197 units in H1
2022, driven by low home prices, a renewed need for home ownership, more personal space, and better
amenities. It is noteworthy that this growth occurred despite increased economic growth concerns and a
cumulative 90 basis point repo rate hike in May and June, which impacted homebuyer affordability during
the period.

12% 10% 11%


22%
8%

42% 37%
29% 29%

< INR 25 Lakh INR 25-45 lakh INR 45-75 lakh 1 BHK 2 BHK 3 BHK 4 + BHK
INR 75-100 > INR 1 crore
Figure 19 – Ticket Size Wise Sales Distribution Figure 20 – Typology Wise Sales Distribution
Source. Knight Frank Research 2022 Source. Knight Frank Research 2022

The recent change in demand to the INR 5-10 million ticket size, from 15% in H1 2018 to 28% in H1 2022, has
been considerable. Because of the necessity to upgrade the family's principal dwelling and to fulfil work and
study from home requirements, this trend has been noticed across locales. The > INR 10 mn ticket-size has
also increased its sales share from 8% in H1 2021 to 10% in H1 2022. Since 2018, however, there has been a
gradual reduction in the percentage of sales with ticket sizes of INR 5 million. This category's sales share has
decreased from 76% in H1 2018 to 62% in H1 2022.
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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 CITY OVERVIEW N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

Zone Unsold Inventory (Units) YoY Change in Unsold Inventory Quarters-to-Sell


Central 2,908 43% 7.4
East 2,265 33% 5.0
North 3,670 174% 4.3
South 2,905 5% 11.6
West 6,671 42% 9.6
Table 6 – Micro Market Health
Source. Knight Frank Research 2022

The average age of inventory has continually decreased over the last six years, indicating the growing rate
at which ready inventory is consumed in the market. Inventory age is at 8.6 quarters, compared to 9.4
quarters in H1 2021. Unless it is with experienced developers in highly sought-after areas, the minimal price
savings for under construction property does not justify accepting development execution risks. Unsold
inventory had increased 47% year on year by the end of H1 2022, yet it was still just half of what the market
carried in 2016. While the strengthening demand picture bodes well for the market, growing inflationary
expectations and interest rates may provide a challenge to market momentum in the second half of 2022.

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 CITY OVERVIEW N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

Ahmedabad has always been a price sensitive market, and developers have been careful not to boost prices
despite increases in raw costs such as steel and cement, as well as the cost of land, which has climbed
dramatically in the last year. This market is also the cheapest in terms of per square foot among the eight areas
under consideration, resulting in lower developer margins. In response to growing cost constraints and a healthy
demand climate, the market witnessed average prices rise by 2.8% year on year in H1 2022.
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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

3 | SITE ASSESSMENT

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

1. Site Location
The subject site is in Chandkheda Motera Ward, on the north-western part of the city of Ahmedabad.
Location of the site is pre-eminent part of it, as it abuts State highway, connecting Ahmedabad city to
northern part of the state.

SUBJECT SITE

Figure 21 – Site Location with the Context of the City Figure 22 – Position of the Site in the Surrounding
Source. github Source. Google Map, Author’s Interpretation

As shown in the Figure 22, the subject site is part of the entire Gujarat Housing Board Society. Overall GHB
society spans 47.1 hectares, with the subject site covering 17.3 hectares having the periphery of 1.75 kms.
Ownership of the site is under Gujarat Housing Board, and as data retrieved from land records, the land is
under non-TP area. Under Public Housing Redevelopment Policy of 2016, redevelopment of the subject site
is to be carried out. The subject site has 3 road facing sides, on front longer side (585 mt) abuts 60 mt wide
state highway and at the back the longer side adjoins 12 mt wide GHB society’s internal road, whereas
shorter side (260 mt) has 24 mt wide collector road adjoining it. The site has approximately 820 residential
houses and 30 non-residential houses.

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 SITE ASSESSMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

2. Regulation Compliance on the Site


Subject site falls under Residential Zone -1 with
overlay of Transit Oriented Zone as per
Development Plan (2021) of Ahmedabad city,
according to the Comprehensive General
Development Control Regulation (2021) section 15,
Transit Oriented Zone (TOZ) means the area falling
within Blue Dotted Verge shown in the sanctioned
land use plan and shall be consider as a condition Subject Site
for high density development. All type of building
other than obnoxious industries are allowed in R-1
zone as per section 9.2 of CGDCR (2021). Base FSI
for R-1 zone is 1.8 (Section 9.2) , and maximum
permissible FSI for TOZ is 4 (Section 15.4).
Thereafter, 2.2 FSI is purchasable at 40% of the Figure 23 – Applicable Base Zone and Overlay Zone
jantri rate (Schedule 20). Source. Ahmedabad City Development Plan 2021

The subject site is under non-TP area, meaning,


before any type of development, 40% of the plot
area is to be given back to the local authority. As
adjoining road has width of 60 mt, maximum
building height permissible is 70 mt (Section 13.5.1).
Shorter side of the site has 24 mt adjoining road and
back side has 12 mt wide road, the margin to be left
is 7.5 mt both the side and for longer side it is 9 mt
as it adjoins 60 mt road (Section 13.6.1). As another
shorter side has adjoining plot, therefore margin to
be left on that side is 8 mt (Section 13.6.7). As per
the FSI and ground coverage, 5,60,000 sqmt built
up area (Section 2.66) is permissible approximately,
keeping maximum height of 70mt in mind. 35% of
total utilized FSI for commercial use shall be
required for minimum parking and out of that, 20% Figure 24 – Development Regulations on Site
is to be provided for visitor’s parking Source. Google Map, Author’s Interpretation

(Section 15.10.1). 50% of the required visitors parking shall be provided at the ground level. 50% of all
required parking shall be provided for cars (Section 13.10.1). Basement shall be permitted under common
plot, internal road and internal marginal space for exclusive use of parking only (Section 13.11.1).
Parameter Value Reference
Area 17.3 Ha Google Earth
Area to be deducted 6.94 Ha Section 6.17.4 CGDCR 2021
Plot Area 10.04 Ha Section 6.17.4 CGDCR 2021
Base Zone Residential – 1 Development Plan 2021
Overlay Zone Transit Oriented Zone Development Plan 2021
1.8 Section 9.2, CGDCR 2021
Base FSI
3 Public Housing Redevelopment Policy
Maximum Permissible FSI 4.0 Section 15.4, CGDCR 2021
Max Permissible Height 70 mt Section 13.5.1 CGDCR 2021
Margin (North) 7.5 mt Section 13.6.1, CGDCR 2021
Margin (South) 8 mt Section 13.6.7 CGDCR 2021
Margin (East) 7.5 mt Section 13.6.1, CGDCR 2021
Margin (West) 9 mt Section 13.6.1, CGDCR 2021
Maximum Permissible BUA 4,16,400 sqmt Section 2.66, CGDCR 2021
Table 7 – Prevailing Regulations on the Subject Site
Source. CGDCR 2021; Public Housing Redevelopment Policy 2016

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 SITE ASSESSMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

3. Policy Framework
As the subject site is a public housing society, Public Housing Redevelopment Policy of 2016 is applicable.
According to the stated Scheme, public housing societies that are more than 20 years old or in a poor state
on property held by the Urban Authorities can be redeveloped. According to the Scheme, each flat holder is
entitled to 140% carpet area, and the redeveloper is required to remodel the Scheme at no cost.
Furthermore, the redeveloper must offer transit accommodation/rent and maintain the premises for a
period of seven years. According to the Scheme, the procedure may be launched by the association or the
relevant public authority. Any quarter/association that wishes to redevelop must have the approval of 75%
of its members. As per the policy, there are 3 components : 1. Public Housing Component (Redevelopment);
2. Affordable Housing Component (Additional units to be given to the authority in lieu of premium); 3. Free
Sale Component (To be sold in the market by the developer).

Up to 140% of existing approved carpet area of residential unit


Up to 125% of existing approved carpet area of commercial unit

Redevelopment Remaining FSI


30 sqmt to be used in free sale component
(PHC)
carpet area if existing unit is < 30 sqmt 99 years
40 sqmt Sub-lease can be given on free sale land
carpet area if existing unit is > 30 sqmt GHB
BUA/CA/Units ownership will remain same
Highest provider of AHC wins bid
Affordable
Free Sale
Housing
Component
(AHC)

Figure 25 – Understanding of the Policy


Source. Public Housing Redevelopment Policy,2016

By submitting an application to the relevant public


75% consent from the people within the society
agency, an association or society of owners may
start the process of redeveloping an existing public
housing scheme. The following steps must be taken Application to GHB for redevelopment by society
in order to redevelop a public housing project. A association
resolution must be passed by an existing housing
society or association with the support of at least Floating tender by GHB to invite developers
75% of the membership. A worried governmental
body will choose a private developer through an
Technical and financial bid (CQCCBS)
open process and solicit electronic bidding. For the
goal of cross-subsidization, the project can be
reconstructed in packages by combining different Selection of H1 bidder by technical bid then financial
types of homes. Negative bidding situations must bid
be reported to the state-level screening committee
Positive Premium - Total number of additional
for an appropriate response. The "BUA/Carpet affordable units
Area/Number of DU" bidding criteria will be used to
create more housing stock. For the purpose of
creating extra dwelling stock, the bidder with the Negotiation tripartite agreement
highest "Maximum BUA / Carpet Area / Number of Figure 26 – Process of Redevelopment
DU" shall be chosen. Source. Public Housing Redevelopment Policy,2016

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Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

The existing housing society or association owners, the chosen private developer, and the involved public
agency will enter into a tripartite agreement for redevelopment. The private developer will need the
approval of 75% of the members, including those chosen by a resolution issued by an existing society or
association, in order to implement the redevelopment of the existing housing scheme of the field. The
process will be facilitated by the organization or association and the relevant public agency.

SOCIETY ASSOCIATION
Getting 75% consent
Checking for any outstanding dues
Applying for redevelopment to concerned agency

PUBLIC AGENCY - GHB


Floating tender for bidders
Awarding the work to eligible the developer
Allotting additional affordable housing to the beneficiaries

DEVELOPER
Bearing total Construction Cost
Giving transit accommodation to existing residents
Operation and maintenance of PHC, and AHC for 7 years
Figure 27 – Role of Stakeholders
Source. Public Housing Redevelopment Policy,2016

The developer will pay for any necessary accommodations for the transit system and may also offer rental
housing as a form of transit accommodation. Developers will be responsible for providing O & M for the
first seven years after receiving BU clearance, and then the beneficiary society or organization will get it.
Beneficiaries must make the required contributions to the maintenance fund for O & M. At the time of
possession transfer, a maintenance deposit will be demanded from each beneficiary.

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 SITE ASSESSMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

4. Current Scenario
The society is 37 years old, considering that,
planning of internal roads, open spaces at
different interval is something to appreciate.
Currently there are 5 societies having a range of
32 to 110 sqmt of carpet area (1BHK to 3BHK).
These semi detached and row houses units are
incremented according to the residents’
requirements by the residents.
Legend Society R Units C Units CA(sqmt)
Shraddha Park 68 3 32

Subhashnagar 106 2 85

Vishnunagar 221 4 45

Shivshaktinagar 397 2 32

Karnavati 30 19 110

Figure 28 – Current Built vs Open Condition Table 8 – Societies Mapping Figure 29 – Societies Mapping
Source. Understanding the City Studio M2022 CEPT University; Primary Survey Source. Primary Survey Source. Understanding the City Studio M2022 CEPT University; Primary Survey

Figure 30 – Aerial View of the Society Figure 31 – Non-residential Units


Source. Primary Survey Source. Primary Survey

Figure 32 – Open Spaces Figure 33 – Original and Incremented Residential Units


Source. Primary Survey Source. Primary Survey

Residential that have benefit of the frontage have been converted into non-
residential units to fetch the locational advantages. Residential units facing
60mt wide road are mostly being used us hospitals and showrooms. As there
are no restrictions of going vertical in construction, units which were only 2
story high, have been incremented to 4 stories as seen in figure 30, to make
the best of it. Whereas units facing 12mt wide rare road have simple been
converted to vanilla shops such as grocery or tailoring. Units facing 24mt wide
collector road are getting benefits of proximity to the hospitals and most of the
non-residential units here are being used as pharmacy or clothing shops as
seen in figure 31. Figure 34 – Non-Residential Units Mapping
Source. Understanding the City Studio M2022 CEPT University; Primary Survey

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 SITE ASSESSMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

5. SWOT Analysis

Figure 35 – Proximity to BRTS Corridor


Source. Primary Survey

1. Location of the site attracts commercial component to the project.


2. Frontage of 585 mt supports to go multi-level commercial component.
3. Development regulations work in favour for the site and project.
4. Proximity of employment sectors, and education facilities may attract consumers.

Figure 36 – Resistance from Remaining Society


Source. Primary Survey

1. As the project is 1/3rd part of the entire establishment, it may affect the remaining 2/3rd part of
the establishment negatively.
2. As it is a redevelopment project and has a huge scale to it, arrangement and finance of transit
accommodation can be crucial to design and manage.

Figure 37 – Frontage
Source. Primary Survey

1. As it is a redevelopment site, additional affordable housing unit can be included in the project
brief after assessing the feasibility of the project.
2. If no full FSI is achieved, remaining FSI can be converted into Transferable Development Right
(TDR) to use anywhere else in the city.

1. Negative response from the remaining establishment can be received.


2. As it abuts 60 mt wide state highway and has frontage of 585 mt, noise pollution from the
vehicular movements can disturb the environment.

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 SITE ASSESSMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

As there is a great scope of redevelopment considering stated points, financial feasibility of the project is to be
carried out. For that, the project must be formulated in align with prevailing micro market of the locality.

To study and suggest public housing redevelopment based on the underlying site
AIM

environment, relevant legal standards, and existing macro and micro real estate market
scenarios
OBJECTIVE

To upgrade old dilapidated stock

To built affordable houses for concerned authority

To leverage potential of land at its fullest

To enhance neighborhood

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

4 | MICRO MARKET STUDY

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

1. Locality Analysis
Chandkheda locality is a part of Chandkheda -
Motera ward, which consist Chandkheda, Motera,
New C G Road, TP 44, and some part of Tragad. It is
located in the northern peripheral part of the city at
the border of Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad district.
In 2008 Chandkheda-Motera has been included
into AMC’s jurisdiction from Gandhinagar.
Chandkheda lies on the Sardar Patel (SP) Ring Road
and State Highway 41. Sardar Patel Ring Road
connects Chandkheda to other peripheral areas in
Ahmedabad.

11.47 sqkm 96,260


Area Population

83.9 pph 983


Density Sex Ratio

Figure 38 – Snapshot of Chandkheda - Motera Ward Figure 39 – Ahmedabad City Ward Map
Source. Census 2011 Source. Development Plan Studio, S2022, CEPT University; Author’s Interpretation

A little community previously existed in


Chandkheda. Nevertheless, it has become one of
the most sought-after residential areas. The
community's social infrastructure is one of the
causes of this. Schools like Kendriya Viyalaya and
KV Sabarmati, as well as institutions like
Vishwakarma Government Engineering College, are
located in the area. In the area, there are hospitals
including Kanoria Hospital and Apollo Hospitals.
Post offices, banks, a fire station, a pharmacy, and a
stadium may be found nearby. The area’s
connectivity is further enhanced by the rapid BRTS
and Metro system. Sabarmati Railway Station and
Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airports are in Figure 40 – Social Infrastructure of the Ward
Source. Google Map, Author’s Interpretation
8-10 km radius.

Chandkheda has good amount of economy


generators that brings population to the locality –
supporting and pushing real estate market of the
locality. ONGC, Airport, and Apollo hospital are
major economy generators. As these
establishments are nation wide, people from all
around the country resides here – making the
locality cosmopolitan.

Figure 41 – Economy Generator


Source. Google Map, Author’s Interpretation

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 MICRO MARKET STUDY N
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Public Housing Redevelopment

2. Micro Market Analysis


There are 4 micro markets are observed in
Chandkheda Motera Ward, according to the
characteristics of buildings that are developed.
Chandkheda, New C G Road, Motera, and TP 44.
Motera, and New C G Road caters to MIG and HIG
category, in which Motera has indigenous
population of Gujarati due to proximity of Sabarmati
area, which is the oldest settlement in northern
Ahmedabad, whereas New C G Road is more of a
cosmopolitan locality because of the proximity to
ONGC campus that has employees from all around
the country. Chandkheda and TP 44 caters to LIG
and MIG category, in which Chandkheda has the
indigenous population of Gujarati because of
Chandkheda gam. Figure 42 – Micro-Market of Chandkheda-Motera Ward
Source. Google Map, Author’s Interpretation

As the subject site is at the intersection of Chandkheda, and New C G Road micro market, micro market
study will cover the real estate projects that are came up into these two micro-market in past 5 years.

Figure 43 – Study Projects in Radius of 1 km


Source. Google Earth Imagery; Primary Survey; Author’s Interpretation

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Public Housing Redevelopment
Project Development Micro Market Zone
Pebble Bay Residential + Commercial Chandkheda + New C G Road R1 + TOZ
Ishan Luxuria Residential New C G Road R1
Completed

Omkar Lotus Residential + Commercial New C G Road R2


Shree Sarju Heights Residential + Commercial Chandkheda R1
Shivsai Residency Residential Chandkheda R1
East Ebony Residential l New C G Road R1
Saral Sky Residential + Commercial New C G Road R1
On Going

Vihaan Avenue Residential + Commercial New C G Road R1 + TOZ


Shyaam Sanvi Residential + Commercial Chandkheda R1 + TOZ
Shlok Avenue Residential + Commercial Chandkheda R1
Table 9 – Study Projects for Micro Market Analysis
Source. Primary Survey

Project Product Mix No. of Residential Units No. of Retail Units


Pebble Bay 3BHK, 4BHK, Retail 147 19
Ishan Luxuria 3BHK 88 0
Completed

Omkar Lotus 3BHK, Retail 28 32


Shree Sarju Heights 2BHK, 3BHK, Retail 110 33
Shivsai Residency 1BHK, 2BHK, 3BHK 52 0
East Ebony 3BHK 88 0
Saral Sky 4BHK, Retail 46 15
On Going

Vihaan Avenue 2BHK, Retail 26 3


Shyaam Sanvi 3BHK, Retail 144 48
Shlok Avenue 2BHK, Retail 56 13
Table 10 – Project wise Product Mix
Source. Primary Survey; GujRERA (Retrieve in September 2022)

948 1.1 lakh sqmt 24,200 sqmt 3 years


Total Dwelling Units Total BUA Average Average
Construction per Year Project Cycle

Micro Market : Chandkheda Micro Market : New C G Road


1,20,000 30

1,00,000 25

Market : Jantri Rate Ratio


80,000 20
Rate (/sqmt)

60,000 15

40,000 10

20,000 5

0 Shree Sarju Shiv Sai Shyaam Shlok Vihaan


0
Pebble Bay Ishan Luxuria Omkar Lotus East Ebony Saral Sky
Heights Residency Sanvi Avenue Avenue
Jantri Rate 5500 4000 5500 5500 4000 4500 4000 5000 5000 5500
Market Rate 73000 45,000 73,000 1,05,000 45,000 1,12,500 1,08,500 1,12,500 1,12,500 1,12,500
Ratio 13 11 13 19 11 25 27 23 23 20
Average Ratio 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

Jantri Rate Market Rate Ratio Average Ratio

Figure 44 – Market Rate and Jantri Rate of Study Projects


Source. Primary Survey; GujRERA (Retrieve in September 2022)

It is clear that both the micro market has very distinct market rate and jantri rate ratio. Considering the
subject site on the edge of both the micro market, average ratio can be taken into consideration.
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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 MICRO MARKET STUDY N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

4
3.8
3.5 3.4

3 3
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
2.5 2.5

3.4
2
FSI

1.9
3.2 1.8
2.7
1.5 2.4 2.4
2.7 2.7 2.3
1.3
1 1.9

0.5
0.5 0.4
0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
0
Pebble Bay Ishan Luxuria Omkar Lotus Shree Sarju Shiv Sai East Ebony Saral Sky Vihaan Shyaam Shlok Avenue
Heights Residency Avenue Sanvi
Commercial FSI Residential FSI Used FSI Maximum Permissible FSI

Figure 45 – Project wise Maximum Permissible FSI and Consumed FSI


Source. Primary Survey; GujRERA (Retrieve in September 2022)

3,000 120%

2,500 100%

2,000 80%
BUA (sqmt)

1,500 60%

1,000 40%

500 20%

0 0%
Pebble Bay Ishan Luxuria Omkar Lotus Shree Sarju Shiv Sai East Ebony Saral Sky Vihaan Shyaam Sanvi Shlok Avenue
Heights Residency Avenue

Commercial BUA (sqmt) Residential BUA (sqmt) Commercial % Residential % Total BUA

Figure 46 – Project wise Break up of Residential and Commercial BUA


Source. Primary Survey; GujRERA (Retrieve in September 2022)

Above graph shows distribution of residential component and commercial component in terms of built-up
area and used FSI. Commercial component in the range of study projects varies between 0-30% built up
area wise, with the absorption of 100% in completed projects. Which shows that there is demand for
commercial component and more than 30% can be proposed for the subject site.
160 158
140
13% 14% 126 142
120
121
Unit Size (sqmt)

100
1,00,964 101
80
sqft 63 59
60 77
Total BUA 51
40 43 45
20
73%
0 18
2BHK 3BHK 4BHK Retail 2BHK 3BHK 4BHK
Unit Size Range (sqmt) Average Unite Size (sqmt)
Figure 47 – Product wise Composition of BUA Figure 48 – Unit Typology wise Range of Unit Size
Source. Primary Survey; GujRERA Source. Primary Survey; GujRERA

It is observed that compare to 2BHK and 4BHK, 3BHK is high in demand, that shows rigidity in 2BHK
segment while 3BHK and 4BHK segment has flexibility in terms of unit size.
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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 MICRO MARKET STUDY N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

60,000 600

50,000 500

40,000 400
BUA (sqmt)

No of Units
30,000 300

20,000 200

10,000 100

0 0
Launch Sale Launch Sale Launch Sale Launch Sale
1 BHK 2 BHK 3 BHK 4 BHK
BUA (sqmt) 180 180 9941 9574 51761 49857 9547 6494
No. of Units 4 4 192 185 516 482 73 48

BUA (sqmt) No. of Units


Figure 49 – Unit Typology Wise Launch and Sale of Units and BUA
Source. Primary Survey; GujRERA (Retrieve in September 2022)

It is observed that 96% of 2BHK, and 93% 3BHK typology are being sold in the market. This shows the
demand of 2BHK, and 3BHK is high. 4BHK is recently introduced segment in the micro market thus
absorption is low. Considering this study covers only 4 units of 1BHK typology, that we consider it an outlier.

Completed Project On Going Project


120

100

80
No of Units

60

40

20

0
Ishan Omkar Shree Sarju Shiv Sai Vihaan Shyaam Shlok
Pebble Bay East Ebony Saral Sky
Luxuria Lotus Heights Residency Avenue Sanvi Avenue
Residential 95 91 100 94 100 97 54 88 89 98
Commercial 100 100 94 67 100 67 100

Residential Commercial
Figure 50 – Absorption Rate in the Study Projects
Source. Primary Survey; GujRERA (Retrieve in September 2022)

It is observed that, lowest commercial absorption rate in completed projects is 94%, and 67% for ongoing
projects. Whereas lowest residential absorption rate is noted at 91% in completed projects, and 54% in
ongoing project. This shows that market health is good, and considering these projects are 5 years old, age
of inventory is not to be worried about.
50,000 48,10010%
8%
45,000 7% 8%
40,000
Price / sqmt

6% 6%
35,000 5% 40,400
4%
30,000 4% 3%
3% 2%
25,000

20,000 0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
32,600

Figure 51 – Year wise Sale Price Range per sqmt and YoY Growth Price Range (/sqmt) Average Price (/sqmt) YoY Growth
Source. Primary Survey; GujRERA (Retrieve in September 2022)

YoY growth before COVID is higher compared to current YoY growth in sale price.
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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 MICRO MARKET STUDY N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

90:10 Average Residential vs Commercial Ratio


14:73:13 2BHK vs 3BHK vs 4BHK Composition
40,400 Rs/sqmt average price for current year
24,200 sqmt average construction per year
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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

35% Average Loading Factor


5% Average YoY sale price escalation
91% Lowest absorption in Residential Units
94% Lowest absorption in Commercial Units
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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

5 | ITERATIONS

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

1. Assumptions from Micro Market


As this is a public housing redevelopment project, and the project formulation has to be in line with the
policy, some deviation from micro market is bound to happen. Such as, commercial component might get
higher weightage than micro market to increase the profitability of the project.

100% consent from the residents are achieved.

All the encumbrances till the date, all the dues pending is paid.

The GHB has float the tender and the work order has been awarded.

10,000 18,000 15,000 21,000


Rs/Month Rs/sqmt Rs/sqmt Rs/sqmt
For 48 Months For PHC For AHC For FSC
Transit Accommodation Construction Cost Construction Cost Construction Cost

35%-45% 45-60 75-125 150


sqmt sqmt Rs/sqmt
Loading Factor (Up) For 2BHK FSC For 3BHK FSC For 4BHK FSC
Carpet Area Carpet Area Carpet Area

4 units 6 units 2-4 units 91%


For PHC For AHC For FSC For Residential
Per Floor Units Per Floor Units Per Floor Units Market Absorption

4-7 floors 20 floors 13-18 floors 94%


For PHC For AHC For FSC For Commercial
Per Tower Floor Per Tower Floor Per Tower Floor Market Absorption

7% Construction price escalation (YoY) 40,400 – 48,100 Rs/sqmt


Sale Price for Residential
8% Sale price YoY growth
20% Residential Units in Pre-Launch Sale 1,20,500 – 1,27,500 Rs/sqmt
40% Commercial Units in Pre-Launch Sale Sale Price for Residential

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 ITERATIONS N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

2. Case Study | Practice in Sector


Ekta Festival is the first Public Housing Society to
go under redevelopment as per Redevelopment of
Public Housing Scheme – 2016. It caters to MIG
Category. It had 60 Residential Units and 36 Non-
Residential Units. The society was constructed 32
years ago, and due to fatal accident on the site,
concerned agency – GHB took the initiative for
redevelopment. For tender procedure, GHB used
“Swiss Challenge Mode”, where any developer may
give initial proposal. Based on initial proposal, GHB
floated tender to invite other developer’s proposal. Figure 52 – Ekta Festival – Public Housing Redevelopment
If a new developer comes with a better proposal Source. thefestivegroup

they win the work order, in this case original developer may have opportunity to raise his proposal. The case
study is taken to understand the negotiation done in the project.

Transit Accommodations
The existing residents were paid 15,000 Rs per month and existing shop owners were paid 18,000 Rs per
month with 10% increment every year.

Negotiations
Amenities :
• Swimming pool, clubhouse, mini-theatre, children’s play area, 2 car parking and 2 two-wheel parking
space per unit
• Developer provided clubhouse, children’s play area, 2 car parking and 2 two-wheeler parking per unit
Shops :
• Shops were at ground floor, and shop owners demanded newly constructed shops on ground floor
only
• Developer provided 125% higher carpet area at front main road at first floor, extra parking spaces
Additional Carpet Area:
• Illegal construction of 10-20 sqmt of carpet area without any documents, common passage or
common parking area used illegally
• Owners asked 40% additional carpet area on existing carpet area, but without proper documents and
legality, developer refused
Illegal Construction :
• Many housing units has increased the carpet area illegally with no property documents, without it AMC
doesn’t give permission for demolition
• Owners refused to pay penalty and asked developer to pay to get consent
• This process took extra 3 months

Achievement Conclusions
Ekta apartments is the first public housing society
Old dilapidated structure replaced to go under redevelopment under the
Redevelopment of Public Housing Scheme – 2016.
The new project where developer has been
permitted to build 14 storey building. The new
Optimum utilization of FSI structure is earthquake resistant. Amenities like
gym, landscape area, game room, children’s play
area, car parking, 24x7 security, CCTV
New housing stock added in market surveillance, senior citizen seating area provided in
the new development.
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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 ITERATIONS N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

3. Tentative Product Mix and Iterations


In redevelopment project, according to the policy, are 3 component. Redevelopment component is fixed.
Additional affordable units are decided upon the value of residual land in the market. And remaining FSI will
be consumed in free sale component

PHC No. of existing units (with 40% and 25% extra CA for residential and commercial respectively)
AHC Market value of AHC units equivalent to residual land’s market value
FSC As per micro market supply and demand, and profitability of the project
Parameter Value
Plot Area 17.35 Ha
40% CA added to 822 Residential Units
After Deduction 10.41 Ha
25% CA added to 30 Non-residential Units
Maximum Free FSI 3
Maximum BUA 3,12,300 sqmt 75,200 sqmt total redevelopment BUA
Table 11 – Plot Area Calculation
Source. Primary Survey

Considering 4 units per floor and 5 floors per tower, total 44 towers covering 15,400 sqmt
ground for PHC , keeping built vs open ratio 37:63, 41,640 sqmt plot area for PHC.

To determine additional Affordable Housing Component (AHC), AHC’s market value should be equivalent
to the residual land which is 62,460 sqmt. Total AHC units (40 sqmt CA) are 1,427, with total
BUA of 77,060 sqmt.

PHC BUA AHC BUA FSC BUA Total BUA


75,200 sqmt 77,060 sqmt 1,60,040 sqmt 3,12,300 sqmt

Capital incur cost consist of construction cost, administrative cost, demolition cost, transit
accommodation, and gift money. Whereas revenue is generated by selling free sale BUA at current
prevailing market rate. Difference between these two is developer’s profit and the percentage is counted
on total capital incur cost.

Total Capital Incur Cost Total Revenue Generated


648 Cr 890 Cr

Profit
242 Cr 37% space for the residents.
37:63
In this case, built vs open ratio is , which
is not liveable condition, considering less open

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 ITERATIONS N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

To tackle this situation, iterations are to be carried out. For this, BUA percentage for AHC, floors for AHC,
PHC, and FSC is to be considered, apart from this, percentage of residential, and commercial of FSC are
deciding factor too.

Parameters Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5


AHC % of Residual BUA 32.5% 32.5% 38% 38% 32.5%
FSC R% of Free Sale BUA 80% 80% 90% 85% 90%
FSC C% of Free Sale BUA 20% 20% 10% 15% 10%
Profit 37% 37% 10% 18% 19%
PHC Height (Floor) 5 5 7 7 5
AHC Height (Floor) 10 20 10 15 15
FSC R Height (Floor) 15 20 20 20 15
Built vs Open 37:63 31:69 32:68 30:70 35:65
Population Density (pph) 1,470 1,470 1,594 1,568 1,527
Table 12 – Iterations
Source. Primary Survey

Here in iteration 2, built vs open ratio of 31:69 is achieved, with population density of 1,470 pph is there. For
phasing, activity mapping, and cash outflow – inflow, iteration 2 is to be followed.

Total Capital Incur Cost Total Revenue Generated


648 Cr 890 Cr

Profit
242 Cr 37%

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 ITERATIONS N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

37% profit at today’s price is a good start to start working on the project. Apart from this with financial benefits,
the desired population density and built vs open ratio is achieved.
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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

6 | PROJECT BRIEF

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

1. Product Mix
2 BHK A 45 sqmt 470 17

PHC 2 BHK B 65 sqmt 225 11


15,400 46,340 0.72
3 BHK 120 sqmt 108 5
4 BHK 150 sqmt 49 2

COMPONENT TYPOLOGY CARPET AREA UNITS TOWERS GROUND COVER PLOT AREA FSI

AHC 1 BHK 40 sqmt 1,427 6 3,890 14,330 0.74


COMPONENT TYPOLOGY CARPET AREA UNITS TOWERS GROUND COVER PLOT AREA FSI

2 BHK A 45 sqmt 140 2


3 BHK A 75 sqmt 288 4

2 BHK B 60 sqmt 105 3


3 BHK B 100 sqmt 216 3
FSC 9,600 38,130 1.54
2 BHK B 125 sqmt 173 5
3 BHK B 150 sqmt 84 2

Comm. 43 sqmt 524 4

COMPONENT TYPOLOGY CARPET AREA UNITS TOWERS GROUND COVER PLOT AREA FSI

Here, as the subject site is at the junction of 2 micro market, wide range of unit size and typology are
provided to cover all type of income group and buyers.

14% 8%
24% 22%

3,12,300 3,780 25%


31%
51%
sqmt 26%
units coverage 53%

25%
37% 13%

PHC AHC FSC PHC AHC FSC Commercial PHC AHC FSC Commercial
Figure 53 – Distribution of Built-Up Area Figure 54 – Distribution of Units Figure 55 – Distribution of Ground Coverage
Source. Primary Survey; GujRERA Source. Primary Survey; GujRERA Source. Primary Survey; GujRERA

Here, PHC is to be given back to the residents, AHC is given to GHB as premium. Only FSC is to be sold at
market price to gain profit. Above pie chart is of entire project. Out of which only 1,60,040 sqmt of
BUA, 1,007 residential units, and 524 commercial units will be sold.

51% Saleable BUA 40% Saleable Units


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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PROJECT BRIEF N
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Public Housing Redevelopment

2. Conceptual Layout

2 BHK A

1 BHK
2 BHK B

60 mt
3 BHK
4 BHK
Commercial

2 BHK A
12 mt

3 BHK A

Commercial

2 BHK B
3 BHK B

Commercial

4 BHK
3 BHK C

Commercial

Figure 56 – Site Layout


Source. Author’s Interpretation

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PROJECT BRIEF N
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Public Housing Redevelopment

3. Unique Selling Point


Amenities

Terrace Club Indoor Yoga & Banquet Gaming Mini Steam &
Garden House Games Meditation Hall Zone Theatre Sauna

Unique Selling Point

Proximity to BRTS

Proximity to Job Generator

60 mt
12 mt

Figure 57 – 3D View of Site


Source. Author’s Interpretation

1 Car parking to each unit


2-wheeler parking to each unit

Dedicated vertical common space to each


tower
Only 2-wheeler parking on ground
2 Car parking to each unit

Dedicated vertical common space to each tower


Parking only in basement
2 Car parking to each unit + 1 by sale

Figure 58 – Site Layout


Source. Author’s Interpretation

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PROJECT BRIEF N
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Public Housing Redevelopment

7 | PROJECT PHASING

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

1. Phasing
Phase 1

Phase
PHASING1 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year
The project is divided into
3M 6M 9M 12 M 15 M 18 M 21 M 24 M 27 M 30 M 33 M 36 M 39 M 42 M 45 M 48 M three phases. Phase 1 Will
Project Total BUA Percentage Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Negotiation / Transactions focus on constructing
PHC
FSC Luxurious
75,200
61,465
22%
18%
redevelopment part of the
AHC 77,058 23% project.
FSC Moderate 68,033 20%
FSC Compact 52,950 16%
Sales
170 599 446
Units per Year
5% 17% 12% Phase 1
Construction

22,257 54,932 55,454


Built Up Area per Year
6% 15% 16%
1,216
Units per Phase
34%
1,32,643
Built Up Area per Phase
37%
87 104 255
Units per Year
6% 7% 17%
Sale

446
Units per Phase
29%
Phase 2

Phase
PHASING2 5 Year 6 Year
51 M 54 M 57 M 60 M 63 M 66 M 69 M 72 M Phase 2 is based on getting inflow in the project. This
Project Total BUA Percentage Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Negotiation / Transactions phase if focuses on more construction for fast delivery
PHC
FSC Luxurious
75,200
61,465
22%
18%
of affordable housing component and free sale
AHC 77,058 23% component.
FSC Moderate 68,033 20%
FSC Compact 52,950
Sales
16% Phase 2
607 800
Units per Year
17% 22%
Construction

50,575 71,212
Built Up Area per Year
14% 20%
1,408
Units per Phase
39%
1,21,786
Built Up Area per Phase
34%
364 320
Units per Year
24% 21%
Sale

684
Units per Phase
45%
Phase 3

Phase
PHASING3 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year
Phase 3 is all about making profit out of
75 M 78 M 81 M 84 M 87 M 90 M 93 M 96 M 87 M 90 M 93 M 96 M the project, completion of construction
Project
work and proceeding to exit of the
Total BUA Percentage Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Negotiation / Transactions
PHC
FSC Luxurious
75,200
61,465
22%
18%
project.
AHC 77,058 23%
FSC Moderate 68,033 20%
FSC Compact 52,950
Sales
16%
Phase 3
776 150 26
Units per Year
22% 4% 1%
Construction

73,060 24,010 4,622


Built Up Area per Year
21% 7% 1%
952
Units per Phase
27%
1,01,692
Built Up Area per Phase
29%
226 133 42
Units per Year
15% 9% 3%
Sale

401
Units per Phase
26%
Table 13 – Project Phasing Figure 59 – Phasing
Source. Primary Survey Source. Author’s Interpretation

Average construction per year is 44,500 sqmt, which is almost double than micro market. Here, there is no
land cost involved initially, but to use the benefits of public housing redevelopment, which is free sale
component, redevelopment and affordable housing component must obtain BU permission, then after free
sale component can attain BU permission. Here, negotiation with the residents will take 1 year to start the
project. Apart from this, construction costs, transit accommodations, and gift money majorly sums up to
outflow in initial years.

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Public Housing Redevelopment

80,000 900

70,000 800

700
60,000

600
50,000
BUA (sqmt)

No of Units
500
40,000
400

30,000
300

20,000
200

10,000 100

0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Year BUA Units


Figure 60 – Year Wise Distribution of BUA and Units
Source. Author’s Interpretation

14%
22% 27%
16% 34%
22%
29%
37%
18%

20%
18% 9%
BUA BUA

23% 34%
Units Units

37% 39%
PHC FSC Luxurious AHC FSC Moderate FSC Compact
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

Figure 61 – Project Wise Distribution of BUA and Units Figure 62 – Phase Wise Distribution of BUA and Units
Source. Author’s Interpretation Source. Author’s Interpretation

Maximum BUA is constructed in year 6 and 7, where almost all 5 projects are going simultaneously. Whereas
all three phases have almost equal amount of construction being constructed. In general, free sale
component has the maximum BUA, but as free sale component is divided into three projects, AHC project
has the highest BUA and numbers of units.

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8 | FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT N
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Public Housing Redevelopment

1. Cash Flow Analysis


Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
PHASING 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year
3M 6M 9M 12 M 15 M 18 M 21 M 24 M 27 M 30 M 33 M 36 M 39 M 42 M 45 M 48 M 51 M 54 M 57 M 60 M 63 M 66 M 69 M 72 M 75 M 78 M 81 M 84 M 87 M 90 M 93 M 96 M 87 M 90 M 93 M 96 M
Project Total BUA Percentage Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Negotiation / Transactions
PHC 75,200 22%
FSC Luxurious 61,465 18%
AHC 77,058 23%
FSC Moderate 68,033 20%
FSC Compact 52,950 16%
Sales
170 599 446 607 800 776 150 26
Units per Year
5% 17% 12% 17% 22% 22% 4% 1%
Construction

22,257 54,932 55,454 50,575 71,212 73,060 24,010 4,622


Built Up Area per Year
6% 15% 16% 14% 20% 21% 7% 1%
1,216 1,408 952
Units per Phase
34% 39% 27%
1,32,643 1,21,786 1,01,692
Built Up Area per Phase
37% 34% 29%
87 104 255 364 320 226 133 42
Units per Year
6% 7% 17% 24% 21% 15% 9% 3%
Sale

446 684 401


Units per Phase
29% 45% 26%
Sub Total of Outflow (Cr) 0 1 6 12 12 8 6 7 17 17 10 16 13 12 29 22 29 27 17 17 34 34 24 35 39 32 27 27 18 14 6 6 4 4 0 0
Total Outflow (Cr) 0 1 6 13 13 9 7 8 20 20 12 20 16 16 37 29 38 37 24 24 49 50 36 53 60 50 42 43 29 23 10 10 7 7 0 0
Sub Total of Inflow (Cr) 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 35 23 23 17 20 20 22 67 67 49 49 54 77 74 40 32 44 45 19 17 18 22 18 8 7 6 6 2 2
Total Inflow (Cr) 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 40 27 28 21 26 26 29 90 92 68 69 78 113 111 61 50 69 72 32 28 30 39 31 14 14 12 12 3 3
Net Cashflow 0 -1 -6 -13 -13 -9 32 32 7 7 10 6 10 13 53 63 30 32 54 88 62 12 15 16 13 -18 -14 -13 10 9 4 4 5 5 3 3
Cumulative Outflow ₹ 819 0 1 7 20 33 42 49 57 77 98 109 129 145 161 198 227 265 302 326 351 399 449 485 538 598 648 690 733 762 785 795 804 812 819 819 819
Cumulative Inflow ₹ 1,330 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 80 107 135 156 182 208 237 327 419 487 556 634 747 858 919 969 1039 1111 1143 1171 1201 1241 1272 1286 1299 1312 1324 1327 1330
Cumulative Net Cashflow ₹ 511 0 -1 -7 -20 -33 -42 -10 23 30 37 47 53 63 76 129 192 222 254 308 397 458 470 484 501 514 495 481 469 479 487 491 495 500 505 508 511

Table 14 – Cash Inflow and Out Flow


Source. Primary Survey

Total Capital Incur Cost Total Revenue Generated


₹ 819 Cr ₹ 1330 Cr
IRR Profit Net Profit
36% ₹ 511 Cr 62%

1,400

1,200

1,000

800
INR in Cr

600

400

200

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 84 87 90 93 96 87 90 93 96
3 M 6 M 9 M 12 M 15 M 18 M 21 M 51 M 81 M
M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M
1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year
Cumulative Outflow 0 1 7 20 33 42 49 57 77 98 109 129 145 161 198 227 265 302 326 351 399 449 485 538 598 648 690 733 762 785 795 804 812 819 819 819
Cumulative Inflow 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 80 107 135 156 182 208 237 327 419 487 556 634 747 858 919 969 103 111 114 117 120 124 127 128 129 131 132 132 133

Cumulative Outflow Cumulative Inflow


Figure 63 – Cumulative Cash Out Flow and In Flow
Source. Author’s Interpretation

As seen in the graph, with no initial land cost, the project start to make profit comparatively sooner. Even if
Q1’s earning is spent in Q2, there is still surplice remaining, making the project self-sustainable.

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

2. Business Model
1,400
₹ 49 Cr
1,200

1,000
Y2Q3
Break Even Point
800
INR in Cr

600

400

200

0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

-200 3 M 6 M 9 M 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 87 90 93 96
M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M
1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year

Cumulative Net Cashflow Cumulative Outflow Cumulative Inflow


Figure 64 – Break Even Point
Source. Author’s Interpretation

Break Even Point is a determinant, when net cashflow is in positive number, meaning the project is earning
more than spending. For the project, break even point is coming at Y2Q3. Till Y2Q3, external investment is
needed. After break even point, project’s earnings can be spent in project’s cost. Here, initial investment
needed is 49 Cr INR. If 20% margin is taken, 60 Cr INR is required initial investment. In this case, developer
can run the project as a promoter and developer, where he has 100% share in equity and revenue
generation, assuming the developer has 60 Cr INR retained from previous project’s profits.

Scenario 1 ₹ 49 Cr ₹ 60 Cr ₹ 511 Cr 867%


INITIAL INVESTMENT NET PROFIT RoI

1,400
₹ 49 Cr ₹ 161 Cr
1,200

1,000 Y2Q3 Y4Q2


800 Break Even Point
INR in Cr

600

400

200

0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

-200 3 M 6 M 9 M 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 87 90 93 96
M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M
1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year

Cumulative Net Cashflow Cumulative Outflow Cumulative Inflow

Figure 65 – Revised Break Even Point


Source. Author’s Interpretation

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

There is not much profit gained between Y2Q3 to Y4Q2. Thus, if Y4Q2 is considered as break even point,
initial investment needed is 161 Cr INR. If 20% margin is taken,195 Cr INR is required initial investment. In this
case, developer can form a limited liability partnership with two other developers as partners. Where the
developer will act as promoter and partner 1 with 40% share in equity and revenue, and other two partners
will share 30% equity and revenue each. Limited Liable Partnership is secured business model to do
business with two or more entities. Even if one entity backs off, other partners are financially secured.

Scenario 2 ₹ 161 Cr ₹ 195 Cr ₹ 511 Cr 265%


INITIAL INVESTMENT NET PROFIT RoI

Parameter Promoter + Partner 1 Partner 2 Partner 3


Equity Share 40% 30% 30%
Revenue Share 40% 30% 30%
Table 15 – Limited Liable Partnership
Source. Primary Survey

Sales Strategy

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Construction Period
Sales Period
20% Pre-launch Sale 10% Ready to Move Sale
Figure 66 – Sales Strategy for Residential Units
Source. Author’s Interpretation

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Construction
Sales Period
40% Pre-launch Sale
Figure 67 – Sales Strategy for Commercial Units
Source. Author’s Interpretation

Pre-launch offer is when investors buy in bulk in down payment. This strategy brings inflow in bulk amount,
but it comes with current prevailing rates. Thus, it is important to control selling here to leverage price
escalation. Whereas Ready to move sale has escalated prices, but as the loan payment period here is longer,
minimum 30% booking amount is to be collected.

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY N
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Public Housing Redevelopment

9 | RISK MANAGEMENT

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

1. Risk Identification and Mitigation


Any type of business is prone to get affected by externalities. To know if the project could survive these
externalities, sensitivity analysis is carried out. For this risk identification, 1. Low absorption in market, 2. Dip
in YoY growth in sale price, and 3. Hike in construction price escalation - are taken into consideration.

Low Absorption in the Market 1,400


1,200
91% Absorption in Residential Unit
1,000
Y2Q3
94% Absorption in Commercial Unit

INR in Cr
800

₹ 195 Cr Initial Investment 600


400

33% IRR 200


0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3

204% RoI 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year

Cumulative Outflow Cumulative Inflow

In this scenario, if market absorption is considered, 90 residential and 30 commercial units are left
unsold. To mitigate this situation, these units can be sold in bulk or separately at average sale price or
lowest sale price to exit the project.

Drop in YoY Growth in Sale Price 1,400


1,200
8% 5% 1,000
Y2Q3
INR in Cr

800

₹ 195 Cr Initial Investment 600


400

32% IRR 200


0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3

169% RoI 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year

Cumulative Outflow Cumulative Inflow

In this scenario, if highest sale price is not achieved, sale before achieving average price is controlled,
it would be advisable to sell maximum inventory after average sale price is achieved.

Hike in Construction Price Escalation 1,400


1,200
7% 10% 1,000
Y2Q3
INR in Cr

800

₹ 210 Cr Initial Investment 600


400

34% IRR 200


0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3

180% RoI 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year

Cumulative Outflow Cumulative Inflow

In this scenario, construction of maximum possible inventory should be done before achieving
average escalated sale price, to compensate that, good number of units should be sold later on.
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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 RISK MANAGEMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

In all three cases, the project is little to nothing gets affected, meaning, project is sensitive enough to take a hit
of any externalities. Apart from this, there are other unforeseen externalities such as pandemic, that might affect
unit sale as well as construction rates.
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| CONCLUSION

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

9 years 36% 265%


Project
IRR RoI
Cycle
The project is definitely viable with 36% of IRR and 265% of RoI. Although the project cycle is 9 years long and
there are complexity involved, the project is viable enough to stand against any externalities.

PHC AHC FSC

Upgradation of Provision of Addition of


old stock new stock new stock
of association to the agency to the market
Apart from this, the old dilapidated stock is getting upgraded, concerned authority is getting their old stock
upgraded and new affordable houses constructed free of cost into their inventory. The land is open for more
greenfield development that contributes to the micro market and neighbourhood.
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| Abbreviations
AHC Affordable Housing Component
AMC Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation
AMTS Ahmedabad Municipal Transport Service
AUDA Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority
BHK Bedroom Hall Kitchen
BRTS Bus Rapid Transit System
BUA Built Up Area
BU Building Use
CA Carpet Area
CBD Central Business District
CCTV Closed Circuit Television
CGDCR Comprehensive General Development Control Regulation
CQCCBS Combined Quality Cum Cost Based System
DFC Dedicated Freight Corridor
DMIC Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor
DU Dwelling Unit
FSC Free Sale Component
FSC C Free Sale Component Commercial
FSC R Free Sale Component Residential
FSI Floor Space Index
GHB Gujarat Housing Board
GIDC Gujarat Industrial Development Corporation
GIFT Gujarat Information and Finance Technology
GMRCL Gujarat Metro Rail Corporation Limited
GujRERA Gujarat Real Estate Regulation Authority
INR Indian National Rupee
IRR Internal Rate of Return
MAHSR Mumbai Ahmedabad High Speed Rail
O&M Operations & Maintenance
ONGC Oil and Natural Gas Corporation
PHC Public Housing Component
PPH People Per Hactare
RoI Return on Investment
SBD Sub Business District
SIR Special Investment Region
TOD Transit Oriented Development
TP Town Planning
YoY Year on Year

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| Bibliography
ahmedabadbrts.org. Www.ahmedabadbrts.org. Retrieved September 19, 2022, from http://www.ahmedabadbrts.org/

Annual Report 2020-21. Gujrera.gujarat.gov.in. Retrieved September 18, 2022, from


https://gujrera.gujarat.gov.in/resources/staticpage/Annual_Report_2020-21/Annual_Report_2020-21.html

Chandkheda Emerges One of the Most Preferred Localities in Ahmedabad. Www.commonfloor.com. Retrieved September 19, 2022, from
https://www.commonfloor.com/guide/chandkheda-emerges-one-of-the-most-preferred-localities-in-ahmedabad-41806

GSDP of Gujarat, Economic Growth Presentation and Reports | IBEF. (n.d.). India Brand Equity Foundation. Retrieved September 18, 2022, from
https://www.ibef.org/states/gujarat-presentation

Gujarat Metro Rail Corporation Limited. GMRC. Retrieved September 19, 2022, from https://www.gujaratmetrorail.com/

INDIA REAL ESTATE RESIDENTIAL AND OFFICE MARKET. Www.www.knightfrank.co.in. Retrieved September 19, 2022, from
https://www.knightfrank.co.in/research/india-real-estate-residential-and-office-market-2021-8699.aspx

Why Gujarat Real Estate Market Is Hot. Realty plus Magazine. Retrieved September 18, 2022, from https://www.rprealtyplus.com/design-
const/why-gujarat-real-estate-market-is-hot-106049.html#:~:text=INVESTMENTS%20WORTH%20RS%205%2C005%20CRORE

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

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Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT N
Housing Project Studio UH4001
Public Housing Redevelopment

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67
Khyati Shah | PUH21178 PUBLIC HOUSING REDEVELOPMENT N
Public Housing Redevelopment
GHB Society, Chandkheda
PUH21178

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