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Vežba 9. Analiza Dinamike (I Deo)
Vežba 9. Analiza Dinamike (I Deo)
n 9 yˆt bo b1 x
b0 173.33
b0
y
, b1
xy
.
b1
fja trenda
11.65
y=173,33+11,65x
n x 2
2008 -4
r 0.9971 2009 -3
r^2 0.9943 2010 -2
2011 -1
2012 0
2018 ? x=5 2013 1
y2017 243.23 2014 2
U 2018. godini očekuje se 232 napada. 2015 3
>300? 2016 4
11 2017 5
Broj napada veći od 300 očekuje se u 2023. godini.
𝒚>𝟑𝟎𝟎
𝒃_𝟎+𝒃_𝟏 𝒙>𝟑𝟎𝟎 2023 11
𝒃_𝟏 𝒙>𝟑𝟎𝟎−𝒃_𝟎
𝒙>(𝟑𝟎𝟎−𝒃_𝟎)/𝒃_𝟏
ZADATAK 1.
100 98.00%
97.00%
50
96.00%
95.00%
0 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
entualna odstupanja
103.00%
y/
102.00% yt*100
%
101.00% Trend
100.00%
99.00%
98.00%
97.00%
96.00%
95.00%
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Godina Vreme (x) Broj izvršilaca (y) xy x2 x4 x2y yt
2013 -3.5 24 -84 12.25 150.06 294.00 30.13
2014 -2.5 38 -95 6.25 39.06 237.50 33.53
2015 -1.5 50 -75 2.25 5.06 112.50 39.38
2016 -0.5 42 -21 0.25 0.06 10.50 47.66
2017 0.5 56 28 0.25 0.06 14.00 58.39
2018 1.5 68 102 2.25 5.06 153.00 71.55
2019 2.5 87 217.5 6.25 39.06 543.75 87.16
2020 3.5 108 378 12.25 150.06 1323.00 105.21
Σ 0 473 450.5 42 388.50 2688.25 473
n 8
b0
y b x 2
2
, b1
xy , b2
n x 2
b0 52.72 n x 2
n x
b1 10.73
b2 1.22 yˆt bo b1 x b2 x 2
fja trenda yt = 52,72 + 10,73 x + 1,22 x2
Parabolični trend
Prognoza za 2022. godinu (xp=5,5): 2013 -3.5 120
2019 2.5 20
2020 3.5 0
2021 4.5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1
2022 5.5
Očekivan
Dužina faze Broj faza (fi) i broj (fi-fi')2/fi'
II. Izračunavanje faza (fi')
test-statistike: 1 2 2.08 0.003
2 1 0.73 0.097
3 i više 1 0.18 3.638
χ 2= 3.738
III. Kritična vrednost c 6.898
H0 se prihvata za χ2 ≤ 6,898
IV. Pravilo testa:
H1 se prihvata za χ2 > 6,898
b1 x b2 x 2
Parabolični
120
trend Procentualna odstupanja
130.00%
2023809523809 x²100
+ 10.7261904761905 x + 52.71875 120.00%
6960504445618
80
110.00%
y/
60 yt*100%
100.00%
Trend
40
90.00%
20
80.00%
0
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
70.00%
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
ran na teritoriji jednog grada, u periodu
2 56 68 87 108
n 10 yˆ t bo b1x . -5 -4 -3 -2 -
log b0
log b1
1.78406
0.10696
log yˆ t log bo x log b1
b0 60.822
log b0
log y
, log b1
x log y
.
b1 1.2793
n x 2
Eksponencijalni trend
180.0
f(x) = 60.8224225718034 exp( 0.246288375109447 x )
160.0
R² = 0.992174850836101
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
b1
x log y
.
x 2
2012 -4.5
2013 -3.5
2014 -2.5
2015 -1.5
2016 -0.5
2017 0.5
2018 1.5
2019 2.5
2020 3.5
2021 4.5
2022 5.5
2023 6.5
2024 7.5
2025 8.5
2026 9.5
2027 10.5