Introduction Executive Summary Vision & alignment High-level design Operational improvement CS Transformation KPIs People & culture

le & culture Next Steps Appendix

The tipping points are expected to arrive at varied times in different

regions

Europe

T1 T2 T3

2022 2025-29 2042

U.S.A.

T1 T2 T3

Northeast 2031 2025-29 2039

West Coast 2034 2025-29 2045 Oceania

Midwest 2036 2025-29 2044

T1 T2 T3
ERCOT 2038 2025-29 2045
2021 2025-29 2040
Southeast 2042 2025-29 >2050

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US Northeast: Tipping point 1 arrives first due to a sharp rise in the

retail and T&D price of electricity

Birth of the new energy Electricity and mobility

The digital energy market place Illustrators1
system industry convergence

Northeast Tipping Points Analysis

Tipping point 1 is 13 years
Grid cost parity of non utility T&D parity with Fully delivered away in US Northeast
$800
solar plus storage systems non utility solar + cost of
battery LCOE electricity
$700 Period of EV & ICE parity
(cost + performance)
$600
Tipping point 2 is 7 years
$500 Cost of transmission away in US Northeast
2 and distribution
$/MWh

$400 1
3
$300
Tipping point 3 is 21 years
$200 Non utility solar
away in US Northeast
+ battery LCOE
$100

$0 1
Analysis is based on average profiles. In each geography,
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 there will be segments of the customer base for whom the
economics improve much sooner

Source: Utility impact model Central scenario US Northeast — EY Analysis

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US West Coast: The pace of change will be defined by growing

distributed solar, battery storage and uptake of EVs

Birth of the new energy Electricity and mobility

The digital energy market place Illustrators1
system industry convergence

West Coast Tipping Points Analysis

$800 Tipping point 1 is 16 years
Period of EV & ICE parity Grid cost parity of non away in US West Coast
(cost + performance) utility solar plus storage T&D parity with
$700 non utility solar +
systems
battery LCOE
$600
Tipping point 2 is 7 years
$500
away in US West Coast
Fully delivered
$/MWh

2 cost of
$400
electricity
1
$300
3 Cost of transmission Tipping point 3 is 27 years
$200 and distribution away in US West Coast

$100
Non utility solar
+ battery LCOE
$0 1
Analysis is based on average profiles. In each geography,
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 there will be segments of the customer base for whom the
economics improve much sooner

Source: Utility impact model Central scenario US West Coast— EY Analysis

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 Introduction Executive Summary Vision & alignment High-level design Operational improvement CS Transformation KPIs People & culture Next Steps Appendix

US Midwest: Coal generation will continue to dominate but utility

scale renewables is starting to make inroads

Birth of the new energy Electricity and mobility

The digital energy market place Illustrators1
system industry convergence

Midwest Tipping Points Analysis

Tipping point 1 is 18 years
$800 Grid cost parity of non away in US Midwest
Period of EV & ICE parity utility solar plus storage T&D parity with
(cost + performance) systems
$700 non utility solar +
battery LCOE
$600
Fully delivered
cost of Tipping point 2 is 7 years
$500 electricity away in US Midwest
2
$/MWh

$400
Cost of transmission
1 and distribution
$300
3 Tipping point 3 is 26 years
$200 Non utility solar away in US Midwest
+ battery LCOE
$100

$0 1
Analysis is based on average profiles. In each geography,
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 there will be segments of the customer base for whom the
economics improve much sooner

Source: Utility impact model Central scenario US Midwest— EY Analysis

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 Introduction Executive Summary Vision & alignment High-level design Operational improvement CS Transformation KPIs People & culture Next Steps Appendix

US ERCOT: The pace of change will be defined by modest growth in

solar PV, but gas dominates the generation mix

Birth of the new energy Electricity and mobility

The digital energy market place Illustrators1
system industry convergence

ERCOT Tipping Points Analysis

$700 Tipping point 1 is 20 years
Grid cost parity of non
Period of EV & ICE parity utility solar plus storage away in US ERCOT
(cost + performance) systems T&D parity with
$600 non utility solar +
battery LCOE
$500
Tipping point 2 is 7 years
Fully delivered away in US ERCOT
$400
$/MWh

2 cost of
electricity
$300
1 Cost of transmission
and distribution
$200 3 Tipping point 3 is 27 years
away in US ERCOT
Non utility solar
$100
+ battery LCOE

$0 1
Analysis is based on average profiles. In each geography,
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 there will be segments of the customer base for whom the
economics improve much sooner

Source: Utility impact model Central scenario US ERCOT— EY Analysis

190