Public Opinion in Indonesia

Post-Presidential Election Public Opinion Survey

October 2014
 Key Finding
• Indonesians generally have very positive views on the conduct of the presidential elections, with large majorities giving
good marks for the organization of these elections and expressing satisfaction with the overall election process as well
as specific aspects of the process.
• The majority of Indonesians also believe that the presidential elections were free and fair. There are, however, some
concerns about manipulations of election results at some polling stations in the country which in turn have an effect on
perceptions of integrity of the election process.
• There is a great deal of satisfaction expressed by Indonesians on the performance of electoral institutions, including the
KPU, during the presidential election process.
• Most Indonesians express a strong sentiment that elections of regional and local heads of government should place
directly with the Indonesian voters making this choice rather than members of legislative bodies. Supporters of both
President Jokowi and Prabowo hold these sentiments, as do supporters of their party coalitions in the DPR. The majority
also agrees that even though direct elections are expensive, they should nonetheless be the only vehicle for choosing of
regional and local heads. Furthermore, the majority of Indonesians do not believe that indirect elections would lead to a
reduction of money politics or corruption in the country.
• Indonesians generally have more positive impressions of the direction of the country and the economic situation in the
country than at any time since late 2013. However, the economic situation and corruption are still the two most
prominent issues that Indonesians believe the country still needs to address.
Detailed Methodology
Sample size: • 2,000 respondents representing the voting-age population in Indonesia (17 years+).

Margin of error: • ±2.1 % within a 95% confidence interval.

• All the provinces of Indonesia (34); observations were allocated proportionately at the national level
Sample area coverage: with an over-sample of observations in Aceh, Maluku, Papua, and West Papua.

Fieldwork dates: • October 25 – November 3, 2014

• IFES contracted with the Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) to conduct fieldwork and data processing for
Survey firm: the survey.

• Data was weighted by age, region and gender to bring the realized sample in line with target
Weights: population parameters in order to be nationally representative of the adult (17+) population of
Indonesia.
Views on 2014 Elections
Organization of Parliamentary and Presidential Elections

81% 82%

Very Well Organized

Well Organized
Badly Organized
Very Badly Organized
DK/NR

7% 8% 8% 8%
3% 2%
1% 1%

Parliamentary Presidential

"How would you rate the organization of the [April 9 parliamentary; July 9, 2014 presidential] election?”
Satisfaction with Overall Election Process
for Presidential Election

3% 2% 1%
3%
1% 1%
9%
22%

82%
76%
66%

11% 13%
9%

Indonesia Supporters of Prabowo Subianto Supporters of Joko Widodo

Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Somewhat Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied DK/NR

”How satisfied were you with the overall voting process and procedures of the presidential elections on July 9, 2014?" (n=1,908)
Problems Experienced During Voting
(by region)

79%

94% 91% 92% 93% 95% 95% 96% 100%

96%

21%

5% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4%
Indonesia Maluku / Papua Aceh Bali / NTT / NTB Sulawesi / East Java Central Java / West Java / Sumatra Kalimantan
Gorontalo Yogyakarta Banten / Jakarta
Yes No

"Did you experience any problems while voting during presidential elections?" (n=1,908)
Opinions on Fairness of Elections (Trend)
3% 7%
1%
11% 2%
11%

Completely Free and Fair

66% Somewhat Free and Fair
64%
Not too Free and Fair

Not at all Free and Fair

DK/NR

19% 16%

November 2014 (n=2,000) June 2014 (n=2,009)

November 2014: "In your opinion, how free and fair was the most recent presidential election?“
June 2014: “In your opinion, how free and fair were the most recent parliamentary elections?”
Attitudes on Free and Fair Elections (by Presidential
Candidate Choice)
2%
1% 2%
6%

22%

Completely Free and Fair

71% Somewhat Free and Fair

57% Not too Free and Fair

Not at all Free and Fair

DK/NR

21% 16%

Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto

"In your opinion, how free and fair were the most recent election?"
Attitudes on Specific Aspects of Election

11% 12%
17%
1% 1% 23%
4% 6%
6%
10%

42%
69%
68%
46%

32%
18%
15% 13%
4% 3%
Eligible voters had an equal opportunity to Casting, vote counting, and announcing Manipulating of election results occurred at There was massive manipulation of
participate in the election results were done accurately at the TPS some polling stations election results during the 2014
level presidential election
Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR

"Please tell me whether you agree with the following statements about the Presidential elections on July 9, 2014." (n=2,000)
Attitudes on Manipulation of Election Results
(by Presidential Candidate Choice)
"Manipulating of election results occured at some polling stations" "There was massive manipulation of election results during the
2014 presidential election"

13%
17%
18%
6% 23%
6%
10%
12%
37%

46%
41%

50%

40%
28% 27%

14%
4% 2%
3% 4%
Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto

"Please tell me whether you agree with the following statements about the Presidential elections on July 9, 2014." (n=2,000)
Concerns of Violence on Election Day
(by region)

7% 6% 2% 5% 4% 5% 7%
8% 9%
13%
26% 19% 28%
24% 22% 24% 26% 24%
23%

23% 49%
35% 40%
32% 32% 32% 42%
41% 43%

36%
26% 14%
29% 29% 30% 31% 31% 19%
21%
15%
11% 12% 8% 9%
8% 7% 5% 3% 5% 2%

Indonesia West Java / Maluku / Papua Central Java / East Java Sumatra Kalimantan Aceh Sulawesi / Bali / NTT / NTB
Bantan / Jakarta Yogyakarta Gorontolo
Very Concerned Somewhat Concerned Not Too Concerned Not At All Concerned DK/NR

"How concerned were you about the possibility of violence would break out in your local community if the official election result was not
accepted by one of the contesting sides?" (n=2,000)
Institutions Trusted to Ease Concerns
about Election Violence

Police 91% 4% 5%

Military 90% 5% 4%

Community Leaders 85% 8% 7%

Joko Widodo 73% 15% 14%

Constitutional Court 73% 16% 12%

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono 71% 13% 16%

Jusuf Kalla 70% 14% 16%

Media 69% 14% 17%

Prabowo Subianto 68% 18% 14%

Hatta Rajasa 65% 15% 21%

Very/Somewhat Important DK/NR Somewhat/Very Unimportant

"In your opinion, how important were the following institutions or individuals in easing your concerns of electoral violence after the
election?" (n=2,000)
Attitudes Towards the KPU and other Electoral
Institutions
Satisfaction with Performance of KPU

7% 10% 12%
1% 1% 20%
13% 1%
13%
13% 1% 40%
13%

2%
14%
71% 70% 67%
60%

40%

8% 7% 7% 6% 4%
Informing and educating the public Ensuring the election results are Compiling and establishing the Maintaining independence from Using the internet and social
about the election process in accurate and reflect how people voter's list that is used on Election political pressures in the media like Facebook and Twitter
Indonesia voted Day administration of elections to reach out to voters in Indonesia
Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Somewhat Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied DK/NR

"Please tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the KPU's performance in the following areas:" (n=2,000)
Views on Performance of
Electoral Institutions
Performance of the civilian security officers (HANSIP) in supporting the voting process
93% 5%
at TPS
2%
Impartiality in the counting, tabulation, and announcement of results at the TPS level 89% 5% 6%

Performance of the police and security officials in providing security for the elections 90% 5% 6%

Impartiality of the polling station staff 92% 5%

3%
Adequacy of the facilities and equipment at the polling station 90% 6% 4%

Competency of the polling station commissioners 90% 6% 4%

Information on voting procedures and how to mark the ballots 90% 6% 4%

Information on where and when to vote 93% 4%

3%
Voter registration process 89% 7% 4%

Very/Somewhat Satisfied Very/Somewhat Dissatisfied DK/NR

"Please tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the following aspects of the election:" (n=2,000)
Accessibility of Pre-Election
Voter Education Messages
2% 6%

24%
27%

75%
67%

November 2014 (n=2,000) June 2014 (n=2,009)

Yes No DK/NR

"In the weeks leading up to the election, did you see or hear or read any information messages or activities that provided citizens
information about voting steps and the election process?"
Adequacy of Pre-Election
Voter Education Messages
6% 1%
7%

37%
39%

57% 53%

November 2014 (n=1,497) June 2014 (n=1,343)

DK/NR
Not enough information, and you needed much more information about voting procedures
Satisfactory, but you still needed some more information about voting procedures
Abundant, and helped you fully understand voting procedures

"Did you feel that the information you obtained about voting procedures was...?"
Attitudes on Neutrality of Electoral and Political Institutions

Poll Station Worker 77% 13% 10%

National Army 77% 16% 7%
Village Election Committee 76% 14% 10%
National Police 75% 16% 10%
Field Election Oversight 74% 18% 8%
Election Oversight Committee (District) 70% 20% 10%
National Bawaslu 69% 21% 10%
National KPU 69% 16% 15%
District KPU 68% 18% 14%
Provincial KPU 67% 18% 15%
Election Oversight Committee (Provincial) 67% 23% 10%
Civil Servants 67% 18% 15%
Constitutional Court 66% 25% 9%
Supreme Court 65% 27% 8%
Honorary Council of EMBs 64% 29% 7%

Neutral DK/NR Not Neutral

"Do you think the following groups are able to respond neutrally without political influence in issues related wit the Presidential election
process?" (n=2,000)
Views on Electoral Issues
Preferred Means to Elect Regional/Local Heads
(by Presidential and Party Choice)
3% 3% 2% 2% 3%
4% 3%
7% 10% 8%

84% 89% 78% 90% 81%

10% 8%
6% 4% 5%
Indonesia (n=2,000) Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Great Indonesia Red & White Coalition
Coalition
Voting through DPRD Direct Election Either System DK/NR

“In your opinion, what is the suitable election system to elect governor and/or heads of district in Indonesia?”
Views on Expense of Elections

19% 17% 15% 17%

20%

6% 7% 6%
6% 7%

25%
33% 31%
30%
33%

46%
40% 40% 41%
36%

5% 4% 6% 5% 6%
Indonesia (n=2,000) Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Great Indonesia Red & White Coalition
Coalition
Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR

“Direct elections of governor and district heads or mayors are too expensive”
Views on Expense of Elections versus People Making Choice
of Leader

14% 15% 12% 11% 12%

10% 8% 14% 10% 9%

59% 66%
67% 71% 71%

9% 15% 13%
7% 7%
Indonesia (n=2,000) Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Great Indonesia Red & White Coalition
Coalition

DK/NR

It doesn't matter to people like me whether leaders in this area are chosen by voters or by local parliaments.

No matter the cost, it is important that voters get to choose their leaders and not have others do it for them. Voters in this areas should choose their leaders
through elections.
Elections are too expensive. It would be better for local parliaments to choose governor, district head, and mayor for this area to avoid the cost of holding an
election.

“Please tell me which of these three statements is closest to your opinion.”

Views on Impact of Indirect
Elections on Money Politics

19% 16% 16% 17%

20%

13% 15% 12%

13% 13%

39% 39%
39% 39% 41%

27% 28%
25% 25% 25%

4% 3% 5% 4% 5%
Indonesia (n=2,000) Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Great Indonesia Red & White Coalition
Coalition
Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR

“Switching to a system where local parliaments elect governors and districts heads or mayors will reduce money politics, transactional
politics, and discourage corruption.”
Rethinking Election Choices if Aware of Indirect Elections of
Provincial Head

34% 30% 31%

38% 37%

7% 8%
8%
8% 8%
20% 19%
18%
17% 18%

40% 42% 42%

37% 37%

Indonesia (n=2,000) Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Great Indonesia Red & White Coalition
Coalition
This would not have affected my decision, my choice would stay the same I might have voted for a different candidate or party
I would have chosen a diffent candidate or party DK/NA

“If you were told before casting your vote that the persons or party you choose for the DPR Propinsi would also vote on your behalf for
governor, which of the following best describes your reaction?”
Views on Current Situation in Indonesia
Direction in which Indonesia is Headed

10% 13%
18%

22%
15% 29%

67% 68%
59%

November 2014 (n=2,000) June 2014 (n=2,009) December 2013 (n=1,890)

Right Direction Wrong Direction DK/NR

"Do you believe things in Indonesia are generally going in the right direction or do you believe things are going in the wrong direction?"
Economic Situation in Indonesia (Trend)

5% 5% 5%
4% 5% 5%

39%
44% 48%

51% 44% 40%

1% 1% 2%

November 2014 (n=2,000) June 2014 (n=2,009) December 2013 (n=1,890)

Very Good Somewhat Good Somewhat Bad Very Bad DK/NR

"How would you describe the current economic situation in Indonesia?"

Greatest Issues facing Indonesia (Trend)
38%

33%
31%
29%
28%

21%

13%
12% 12%
8%
7%
6% 6%
5%
4%

Price of basic needs Corruption Jobs/Work Education Law Uncertainty

November 2014 (n=2,000) June 2014 (n=2,009) December 2013 (n=1,890)

"In your opinion, what is currently the greatest problem being faced by Indonesians?”
Views on Corruption in Indonesia
"In your opinion, how prevalent is corruption in Indonesia?" (n=2,000) "Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the nation government's efforts to fight official
corruption?" (n=2,000)

Not Prevalent At
All; 1% Very Dissatisfied;
Very Satisfied; 5%
4%
DK/NR; 11% DK/NR; 8%

Not Too Very Prevalent;

Prevalent; 9% 33%

Somewhat
Satisfied; 44%

Somewhat
Dissatisfied; 39%

Somewhat
Prevalent; 47%
Prevalence of Corruption
People's Representative Council 16% 53% 9% 22%
0%
Political Parties 12% 51% 11% 25%
1%
Government Officials / Civil Servants 9% 52% 16% 22%
1%
Police 11% 48% 19% 21%
1%
Courts 9% 49% 16% 25%
1%
Election Oversight Body 3% 30% 32% 33%
2%
National Election Commission 28% 33% 35%
2% 2%
Non-Governmental Organizations 24% 35% 3% 37%
2%
Military 23% 43% 3% 29%
2%
Universities 21% 40% 4% 34%
2%
Media 20% 38% 3% 37%
2%
Religious Institutions 19% 43% 6% 32%
1%

Pervasive Corruption A Fair Amount of Corruption Not Much Corruption No Corruption At All DK/NR

"Please tell me how much corruption you think there is among each of these groups or organizations." (n=2,000)
Confidence in Institutions and Leaders
4% 5%
1% 1% 12%
14% 15% 15% 16%
13%
15% 4%
3% 3% 3%
6%

29% 29% 29% 33%

36%
55%
56%

47% 47% 47% 45%

37%

27%
23%

7% 6% 6% 7% 4%
President Joko Widodo Vice President Jusuf DPR Kab/Kota DPD DPR Province DPR RI Political Parties
Kalla

Great Deal Fair Amount Not Much None at All DK/NR

”Please tell me how much confidence you have in the following individuals and institutions to address important issues in Indonesia and
your community over the next five years." (n=2,000)
 Public Opinion in Indonesia

Post-Presidential Election Public Opinion Survey

October 2014