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A Spectrum Approach

to Active Risk Budgeting


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Rethinking the barbell.

Andrew Alford, Robert Jones, and Kurt Winkelmann

ere’s a problem most institutional investors

H face. What is the best blend of active and pas-


sive managers in their equity portfolios?
Some investors implement fully passive port-
folios. Others use the passive alternative to dilute the risk
in their active program by barbelling, i.e., hiring a roster
of traditional active managers at one end of the risk spec-
trum, and mixing in index funds at the other, to hit an
active risk target that lies somewhere in the middle.
We believe investors who follow a barbell strategy
are missing a valuable opportunity to put their passive
exposure to work. This lost opportunity is analogous to
ANDREW ALFORD is a vice the opportunity that investors miss when they include
president and research direc- cash in their strategic asset allocations. In our view,
tor, Quantitative Equity Man- investors can improve the expected risk-adjusted perfor-
agement, at Goldman Sachs
mance of their active portfolios by substituting structured
Asset Management in New
York (NY 10005). equity managers for their passive positions.
andrew.alford@gs.com It is now commonplace to categorize active man-
agers by their level of active risk; structured managers usu-
ROBERT JONES is a managing ally take less active risk than traditional managers.1 In our
director and CIO, Quantita- view, most investors should allocate risk across the entire
tive Equity Management, at
Goldman Sachs Asset
active risk spectrum—that is, most equity programs
Management. should entail a blend of passive, structured, and traditional
bob.jones@gs.com equity management. We call this approach the spectrum
strategy.
KURT WINKELMANN is a man- Why are investors better off using a spectrum strat-
aging director and co-head,
egy rather than a barbell? We believe there are four prin-
Global Investment Strategies,
at Goldman Sachs Asset cipal reasons:
Management.
kurt.winkelmann@gs.com

FALL 2003 THE JOURNAL OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT 49


1. On average, the historical risk-adjusted perfor- of 600 bp. Of course, realized tracking error levels can also
mance of structured managers has been better than undershoot targets. Hence, we define traditional managers
the performance of traditional active managers. as those with realized tracking errors in excess of 500 bp,
2. We believe these performance differences are the but below 1,500 bp. (The upper bound is meant to
result of inherent methodological differences. exclude managers who may have significant holdings in
3. To the extent that active management can add other asset classes, such as small-cap equities, interna-
value, investors with significant passive exposures tional equities, or bonds.)
are effectively creating drag on their overall port- We judge it too difficult to classify managers with
folio performance. realized tracking errors between 300 and 500 bp, who are
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4. Because the spectrum strategy diversifies the thus eliminated from further analysis. The results are not
active risk budget, we believe investors can sensitive to exclusion of these managers.
achieve a higher return per unit of active risk by Classification using realized tracking errors is likely
including structured equity products in their to result in misidentification of some managers. A man-
portfolios (i.e., process diversification). ager could intentionally switch between low- and high-
tracking error regimes as part of active decision-making.
We first examine the historical track records of struc- A traditional manager with unusually good perfor-
tured and traditional active equity managers. Then we mance, for example, might decide to lock in this good
explore the methodological differences that drive these per- performance by reducing risk. If the change in risk is con-
formance differences. Finally, we show how investors can siderable, and if the manager spends too little time in the
apply these findings, together with active risk budgeting high-tracking error regime, we could mistakenly classify
techniques, to their large-cap U.S. equity portfolios. the manager as structured. Similarly, a structured manager
with a low target tracking error might just happen to have
EVALUATING STRUCTURED a high realized tracking error if risk increases dramatically.
AND TRADITIONAL MANAGERS In this case we might incorrectly put the manager in the
traditional category.
Many investors implement their long-term asset allo- Unfortunately, we do not have enough information
cations to large-cap U.S. equities by combining passive and to detect regime-switching behavior or to know whether
traditional active management. Because we believe investors a particular manager has underestimated (or overesti-
should also include structured equity in the mix, we start mated risk). Any resulting misclassification of managers
with a review of the historical risk and performance char- adds noise to the analysis, which weakens the power of
acteristics of traditional and structured managers. the tests and makes it more difficult to differentiate struc-
Our sample of structured and traditional managers tured and traditional managers. Our strong results lead us
is taken from the Plan Sponsor Network (PSN) database to believe that misclassification of managers is not a seri-
of institutional manager returns.2 We first construct quar- ous problem, and that our database is sufficiently rich both
terly time series returns for 1,052 large-cap U.S. equity to classify managers and to produce historical differences
managers over the period 1989 through 2001. We then that merit discussion.
drop all managers with fewer than 24 quarters of perfor- Exhibit 1 shows the summary performance and risk
mance history. characteristics for each group of managers, including the
We use historical tracking errors to segregate man- historical average, median, and top-quartile and bottom-
agers, classifying lower-tracking error managers as struc- quartile figures for four performance and risk character-
tured, and higher-tracking error managers as traditional. istics: active return, tracking error, information ratio, and
Market conventions place structured equity managers in a pairwise correlation. We calculate the quartile cutoff
target tracking error range of 100 to 250 basis points (bp). points independently for each risk or performance char-
Given that realized (or historical) tracking errors could acteristic. For example, the structured manager with the
exceed targets, we identify structured managers as those median active return may not be the same as the manager
with realized tracking error levels between 100 and 300 bp. with the median tracking error.
Market convention also suggests traditional managers The performance and risk figures in Exhibit 1 indi-
have tracking error targets—to the extent they are bench- cate why selection among different types of managers is
mark-sensitive and have tracking error targets—in excess such a challenge for institutional investors. Let’s look at

50 A SPECTRUM APPROACH TO ACTIVE RISK BUDGETING FALL 2003


EXHIBIT 1 parison of management styles. To complete the picture,
Performance Relative to S&P 500 1989–2001 we should also look at risk. Given that we intentionally
classify managers using realized tracking errors, one should
Active Return Tracking Error Information Pairwise not be surprised that the tracking errors for structured
(bp) (bp) Ratio Correlation
managers are lower than those for traditional managers.
Structured Managers (64 Managers) For example, the median tracking errors are 221 and
Average 43 209 0.26 0.08 769 bp, respectively, for the structured and traditional
Median 52 221 0.28 0.08 managers. At the extremes, the top-quartile structured
manager has had a historical tracking error of 266 bp, while
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Top Quartile 92 266 0.44 0.27


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the bottom-quartile manager has a realized tracking error


Bottom Quartile -4 147 -0.02 -0.10
of 147 bp. The top-quartile traditional manager has had
Traditional Managers (561 Managers) a tracking error of 971 bp, and the bottom-quartile man-
Average 53 821 0.05 0.13 ager a tracking error of 619 bp. Thus, in keeping with the
Median 53 769 0.07 0.14 way we define our sample, investors were likely to see
Top Quartile 201 971 0.27 0.36
higher realized active risk levels from their traditional
managers than from their structured managers.
Bottom Quartile -120 619 -0.16 -0.10
A useful way to assess the risk/reward trade-off is
Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary. through the information ratio, defined as active return per
Structured managers have a realized tracking error of 1% to 3%, and tradi- unit of active risk (or active return divided by tracking
tional managers have a realized tracking error of 5% to 15%, where tracking error). The information ratios in Exhibit 1 are perhaps the
errors are measured using all data available for each manager.
most interesting, as they suggest significant differences
between these active management approaches. The historical
the performance record first, and then consider differences information ratios for structured managers are higher than those
in risk. for traditional managers at all skill levels. For example, the
Historically, the average active return is quite sim- median structured manager has had an information ratio
ilar for structured and traditional managers. On average, of 0.28, compared to 0.07 for the median traditional
traditional managers have had an active return of 53 bp, manager.3
while the active return for structured managers was slightly The dispersion of information ratios is also more
lower at 43 bp. The median active returns are even closer, pronounced for traditional managers. The top-quartile
at 52 bp for structured managers and 53 bp for traditional information ratio for traditional managers is almost four
managers—despite significantly lower risk for the struc- times the median. For structured managers, the top-quar-
tured managers. Given that traditional managers usually tile information ratio is only 57% higher than the median.
charge higher fees, and our results are gross of fees, it would Taken together, these figures suggest that structured man-
be hard to argue that, on average, traditional managers have agers added more active return per unit of active risk, and,
provided higher risk-adjusted active returns net of fees. further, that manager selection is incredibly important in
More interesting, though, is the dispersion in active developing a portfolio of traditional managers.
returns. The top-quartile structured manager has had an For the most part, the pairwise correlations between
active return of 92 bp, while the bottom-quartile struc- active returns show no difference by active management
tured manager has an active return of –4 bp. Consistent style. The median correlation between structured man-
with the differences in risk-taking, the top-quartile tra- agers is 0.08, while the median correlation between tra-
ditional manager has had an active return of 201 bp, ditional managers is 0.14. These figures are reassuring, as
while the bottom-quartile manager underperformed the they suggest that, within each management style, man-
benchmark by 120 bp. Thus, the historical performance agers are not assuming the same active risks. In other
record seems to indicate that, on average, structured and words, managers seem to be expressing different views or
traditional managers outperformed by roughly the same using different portfolio construction techniques (or both)
amount. Yet, manager selection is much more important in their active decisions.
for traditional managers because the spread in results is The figures in Exhibit 1 provide evidence on the ex
much wider. post performance of individual managers. Given this evi-
Historical returns alone provide an incomplete com- dence, investors may wonder whether it makes sense to

FALL 2003 THE JOURNAL OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT 51


EXHIBIT 2
Performance Relative to S&P 500 1992-2001

Two Managers Four Managers


Active Tracking Active Tracking
Return Error Information Return Error Information
(bp) (bp) Ratio (bp) (bp) Ratio
Structured Managers
Bottom Quartile -54 178 -0.26 -29 141 -0.21
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Median 61 234 0.21 49 176 0.24


Top Quartile 155 297 0.66 123 217 0.63
Traditional Managers
Bottom Quartile -247 430 -0.51 -180 366 -0.46
Median -23 572 -0.09 -14 461 -0.12
Top Quartile 240 784 0.37 170 589 0.28

Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary.


Managers are classified as structured or traditional at the end of each year based on their realized tracking error over the previous 12 quarters, where structured
managers have a realized tracking error of 1% to 3%, and traditional managers have a realized tracking error of 5% to 15%. Managers remain structured or traditional
for the subsequent 12 quarters.

include traditional managers in the mix at all. The rea- ple. For example, the top quartile represents the 25th best
son for including traditional managers is straightforward: portfolio of managers in the sample according to the indi-
Most institutional investors hold portfolios of managers. cated statistic. Thus, we can think of these breakpoints as
Thus, the choice is not between a structured manager and representing an investor’s skill level in developing a port-
a traditional manager, but between alternative portfolios folio of managers.
of managers. What happens if we view the historical The results in Exhibit 2 are consistent with those in
experience in this light? Exhibit 1. Compared to portfolios of traditional man-
To assess the differences between structured and agers, the portfolios of structured managers have higher
traditional strategies at the portfolio level, we create com- median active returns (with less risk), and higher infor-
posites of structured and traditional active managers for mation ratios at all levels. For example, for the results with
the period between 1992 and 2001. As with our earlier four managers, the median information ratio for portfo-
analysis, we distinguish between the different manager lios of structured managers is 0.24 versus –0.12 for
types using realized tracking errors—but this time, to portfolios of traditional managers. Not surprisingly, the
ensure we have an investable strategy, we use the prior portfolios of structured managers also have lower average
three years to classify managers for the next three-year tracking errors and less dispersion in tracking errors and
holding period. We continue to measure performance active returns. Thus, we see again that skilled manager
against the S&P 500. selection is much more important when developing a port-
For each three-year time period, we form two folio of traditional managers.4
groups: structured equity managers (1%–3% tracking The results in Exhibits 1 and 2 raise an interesting
error) and traditional active managers (5%–15% tracking question. Why did structured managers perform so well
error). Within each group, we next create 100 randomly (on a risk-adjusted basis) compared to their traditional
selected composite portfolios of two and four managers counterparts? To answer this question, we must dig more
(equally weighted), and then calculate average buy-and- deeply into the underlying investment methodologies of
hold returns for each subsequent three-year period. structured and traditional managers.
Exhibit 2 shows the active returns, tracking errors,
and information ratios for various cutoff points in the sam-

52 A SPECTRUM APPROACH TO ACTIVE RISK BUDGETING FALL 2003


STRUCTURED AND TRADITIONAL spend a great deal of time and effort managing risk and
APPROACHES TO INVESTING eliminating unintended bets—just as a household on a
tight budget will be more frugal. Traditional managers feel
The primary difference between structured and tra- less constrained by tracking error concerns, and spend
ditional managers lies in their approach to risk and bench- commensurately less time on risk management. As a
marks. Structured managers are highly benchmark- result, unintended and uncompensated risks can creep into
sensitive and tend to target relatively low levels of track- their portfolios.
ing error. Structured managers usually attempt to hit their For example, many traditional managers roughly
lower targets by relying on a relatively large number of small equal-weight the names in their portfolios. This can pro-
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active deviations (i.e., overweights and underweights).


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duce large overweights in small-cap names and smaller


Traditional active managers by contrast usually tar- overweights (or even underweights) in large-cap names.
get high ex ante active returns. Although most do not The resulting small-cap bias adds uncompensated risk to
explicitly target tracking error, their quest for active the portfolio, because the overweight in smaller names is
returns often results in high ex post active risk. This is driven by the manager’s inattention to risk rather than a
because traditional managers usually restrict their active strong belief that small-cap stocks (as a class) will outper-
decision-making to a small number of relatively large form large-cap stocks. By increasing noise in the denom-
positions. The difference in the size of active positions is inator (tracking error) without increasing the numerator
key to understanding the risk and performance differences (active return), this practice reduces the information ratios
between traditional and structured managers. of traditional managers.
One major consequence is that traditional man- We believe the empirical information ratio advan-
agers are less able to achieve symmetry between their tage for structured managers reflects two methodological
bullish and bearish views. Why? Because of the no-short advantages: their relative freedom from the no-short con-
constraint that most institutional investors face. straint (due to smaller intended active deviations), and their
Managers can generally overweight a stock by as greater focus on risk management. If these methodolog-
much as they’d like, but they can underweight a stock only ical advantages persist into the future, we would expect
up to its weight in the benchmark. Since most tradi- the information ratio advantage to persist as well.
tional managers want to implement relatively large active Given the historical information ratio advantage of
deviations, this constraint is often binding. While they can structured managers, investors might conclude from our
theoretically overweight their favorite names by as much discussion that they should allocate little, if any, of their
as they’d like, they can fully underweight their least favorite active risk budgets to traditional active strategies. This is
names in only a few cases (that is, when the benchmark not necessarily the case. There are at least two good rea-
weight is large enough to accommodate the desired under- sons to include traditional managers in the mix.
weighting). As a result, because overweights and under- First, the information ratio advantage for structured
weights must sum to zero, the no-short constraint managers may not persist. Historical information ratios are
effectively hinders a manager’s ability to express bullish poor predictors of future performance, especially for com-
views as well. Consequently, the no-short constraint, and paratively small samples such as ours. Our sample uses quar-
related lack of symmetry, will reduce a traditional man- terly data and has a relatively small number of structured
ager’s potential information ratio. managers. Consequently, we should regard our statistical
Structured managers, by contrast, can take greater results as suggestive rather than definitive.5 Prudent diver-
advantage of both their bullish and bearish views. They sification, then, should include process diversification, and
are able to more fully exploit their views because of their argues for using managers at both ends of the risk spectrum.
relatively low tracking error targets and their propensity Second, at least some traditional managers have
to take a large number of relatively small active deviations. added value historically, and their performance is relatively
Thus, the no-short constraint, while still binding, is less uncorrelated with structured manager performance, sug-
binding because desired underweights exceed benchmark gesting that investors can improve their expected infor-
weights less often. mation ratios by allocating at least some of their active risk
A second difference between structured and tradi- budgets to traditional strategies. Thus, the real issue is the
tional managers is the emphasis on risk management. size of the allocation to each active strategy, both relative
With tight tracking error targets, structured managers to one another and to the passive allocation.

FALL 2003 THE JOURNAL OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT 53


FINDING THE RIGHT MANAGER MIX ing error of 215 bp, while each traditional man-
ager has a tracking error of 800 bp.
How should investors allocate assets between active • We assume each manager is equally weighted
and passive strategies? Should they adopt a barbell approach within its type; i.e., each structured manager
or take risk across the entire active risk spectrum? What- invests 50% of the structured portfolio, and each
ever approach they ultimately adopt, investors should traditional manager invests 25% of the traditional
carefully evaluate the trade-offs that accompany each key portfolio.
decision. We believe the best way to assess these trade-offs
is through an analysis of the active risk budget (see Winkel- In this simple example, risk budgeting means decid-
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mann and Howard [2001]).


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ing how much of the active risk budget to allocate to each


There are three important concepts to clarify about group of managers.
active risk budgeting: 1) the active risk budget; 2) the opti-
mal active risk budget; and 3) the active risk budgeting
Calculate Active Risk Level
process. An active risk budget is simply an attribution of
active risk to its constituent parts. Suppose an investor has To make the allocation decision, we must first cal-
six domestic equity managers with different levels of culate the active risk level for each portfolio. Under our
active risk. Armed with estimates of the correlations assumptions, the tracking error for the portfolio of struc-
among managers, it is quite straightforward to calculate tured managers is around 152 bp, while the tracking error
the tracking error of the portfolio of managers relative to for the portfolio of traditional managers is 400 bp. (These
the combined benchmark, and then attribute the total calculations assume each portfolio of managers has a beta
equity tracking error to each of the six managers. This of 1.0 relative to the benchmark index.)7
decomposition is the active risk budget.
Because the active risk budget identifies the sources
Estimate Active Returns
of active risk, it also provides important information
about the structure of an investor’s active equity portfo- Recall that when there are no constraints, we should
lio. In fact, there is a direct relation between the active risk allocate active risk so that the marginal contribution to
budget and an investor’s views about active returns. active risk equals the marginal contribution to active
In the absence of constraints, the total portfolio return for all investments (or managers). Thus, the next
information ratio is maximized when active risk is allo- step is to estimate active returns for groups of managers.
cated so that the marginal contribution to active perfor- For simplicity, let’s assume structured managers have
mance equals the marginal contribution to active risk for expected information ratios of 0.45, while traditional
all active investments. Constraints can alter this ideal rela- managers have expected information ratios of 0.30. These
tion, but any allocation of active risk that maximizes the assumptions roughly correspond to the first-quartile fig-
information ratio (for a given level of active risk) is called ures in Exhibit 1, and imply the investor is skilled at
an optimal active risk budget. The process of finding this opti- manager selection. By these assumptions, the expected
mal active risk budget is the risk budgeting process.6 information ratio for the group of two structured man-
A simple example may help illustrate these points. agers is 0.64, and the expected information ratio for the
group of four traditional active managers is 0.60. The
• Suppose an investor has two sources of active information ratios for the portfolios of managers are
performance: a portfolio of two structured man- higher than for any individual manager because we’ve
agers, and a portfolio of four traditional managers. assumed the active returns are uncorrelated.8
• To simplify the discussion, we assume active Exhibit 3 summarizes our assumptions.
returns are uncorrelated across all managers, an
assumption we will relax later on. (As Exhibit 1
Blend Strategies
shows, traditional and structured managers are
unlikely to have completely uncorrelated active How should we build a portfolio that combines the
returns.) structured and traditional equity products? A simple way
• Reflecting the results of our historical analysis, we to approach this problem is to vary the proportion invested
also assume each structured manager has a track- with the two equity programs and assess the impact on

54 A SPECTRUM APPROACH TO ACTIVE RISK BUDGETING FALL 2003


EXHIBIT 3 EXHIBIT 4
Risk and Return Assumptions for Portfolios of Allocations to Portfolios of Top-Quartile
Top-Quartile Structured and Traditional Managers Structured and Traditional Managers
Number of Information Active Return Active Risk
Managers Ratio (bp) (bp) Structured Traditional Active Tracking
Allocation Allocation Return Error Information
Structured Equity 2 0.64 97 152 (%) (%) (bp) (bp) Ratio
Traditional Equity 4 0.60 240 400
100 0 97 152 0.64
90 10 111 143 0.78
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the total information ratio and tracking error, as shown 80 20 125 146 0.86
in Exhibit 4. 70 30 140 160 0.87
An interesting pattern emerges in Exhibit 4. The 60 40 154 184 0.84
information ratio hits its maximum when the investor
50 50 168 214 0.79
blends structured and traditional managers. Under our
40 60 183 248 0.74
assumptions, the optimal portfolio allocates 70% to struc-
tured managers and 30% to traditional strategies. Of 30 70 197 284 0.69

course, the optimal proportions will vary depending on 20 80 211 321 0.66
the underlying information ratio assumptions.9 10 90 226 360 0.63
The central point remains the same. As long as the 0 100 240 400 0.60
expected information ratios for each strategy are positive
Assuming zero correlation between structured and traditional managers. The
and not perfectly correlated, investors achieve a higher structured portfolio comprises two uncorrelated managers, and the traditional
information ratio by combining strategies than they do by portfolio comprises four uncorrelated managers.
relying on either strategy exclusively.

Introduce Passive Management agers, the combined tracking error would hit its target of
to the Portfolio 200 bp. Under our assumptions, the expected informa-
tion ratio for the total domestic equity portfolio would
So far, we have focused on the split between struc- be 0.60. This, in essence, is the barbell strategy.
tured and active equity products, without discussing pas-
sive management. The reason is that, in active risk Evaluate Spectrum
budgeting, passive management is both a risk-free and Versus Barbell Approaches
return-free strategy, while we have been focused on the
allocation of active risk between the two active return- With a spectrum strategy, however, investors can do
generating (i.e., risk-taking) strategies. How does passive better. In Exhibit 4, a 70/30 mix of structured and tra-
management fit into the mix? ditional managers achieves the highest information ratio
The risk-free nature of passive management means (0.87). The tracking error of this mix, however, is 160 bp,
that investors can use it to dampen the total active risk of lower than the target of 200 bp.
their equity portfolios. The first step is to decide on an Assuming the investor cannot lever the optimal
appropriate level of total active risk (expressed in track- information ratio portfolio, the next best solution is to pick
ing error terms), and then to blend the optimal portfolio the mix in Exhibit 4 that has a tracking error closest to
of active strategies with passive management to hit this tar- the target. This portfolio has roughly 55% invested in
get (see Winkelmann and Howard [2001] for more details). structured strategies and the remaining 45% invested with
For example, suppose an investor decides that the traditional managers. The new information ratio of 0.81
tracking error target for a U.S. equity program should be is almost 7% lower than the optimal information ratio. This
200 bp. Suppose further the investor estimates that the shortfall amounts to about 12 bp (200 bp ¥ [0.87 – 0.81])
portfolio of traditional managers has a tracking error of in expected active return, which equals the efficiency
400 bp (as shown earlier) and an information ratio of 0.60. cost of the no-leverage constraint.
If the investor allocates 50% of the total portfolio to a pas- Relative to the barbell strategy, however, this new
sive manager and 50% to the portfolio of traditional man- mix represents a 35% improvement in efficiency (i.e.,
FALL 2003 THE JOURNAL OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT 55
EXHIBIT 5
Results for Spectrum and Barbell Approaches at Selected Target Risk Levels
Spectrum Barbell

US Equity Passive Structured Traditional Passive Traditional


Target Risk Allocation Allocation Allocation Information Allocation Allocation Information
(bp) (%) (%) (%) Ratio (%) (%) Ratio

0 100 0 0 0.00 100 0 0.00


50 68 22 10 0.87 88 12 0.60
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100 38 43 19 0.87 75 25 0.60


150 6 66 28 0.87 63 37 0.60
200 0 55 45 0.81 50 50 0.60
250 0 40 60 0.74 38 62 0.60
300 0 24 76 0.68 25 75 0.60
350 0 13 87 0.64 12 88 0.60
400 0 0 100 0.60 0 100 0.60

The spectrum approach combines passive, structured, and traditional strategies, and the barbell approach combines passive and traditional strategies. The structured
portfolio comprises two uncorrelated top-quartile managers, and the traditional portfolio comprises four uncorrelated top-quartile managers.

0.81 versus 0.60), and an improvement in expected active passive portfolio. This portfolio would have an informa-
return of 42 bp. The source of this efficiency gain is tion ratio of 0.60. We can easily see that the structured
moving from passive to structured management. In fact, equity allocation comes almost entirely from the passive
in this example, for any tracking error target above 160 position. By putting more of the passive assets to work in
bp, investors should have no passive exposure, and should a structured equity program, the information ratio for the
instead allocate all their equity assets to the structured and total U.S. equity portfolio increases from 0.60 to 0.87, or
traditional programs. almost 45%.
Next let’s look at an active risk target that is below Exhibit 5 summarizes these two examples, and pro-
160 bp. Suppose the targeted tracking error is 100 bp for vides the strategy split and information ratios for other
the total U.S. equity portfolio. We know from Exhibit 4 tracking error targets. It contrasts these figures with the
that a mix of 70% invested in structured equity and 30% barbell strategy. The information ratio increases as risk is
invested with traditional managers has the highest infor- taken along the active risk spectrum. What is more strik-
mation ratio. This portfolio has a tracking error of 160 bp. ing, though, is that for the most part, funding for the struc-
If we construct a portfolio that has 38% invested pas- tured equity position comes out of the passive allocation.
sively, and 62% invested in the optimal blend portfolio,
the total portfolio will hit the tracking error target of 100 Change the Correlation Assumption
bp. Thus, the passive position effectively diminishes the
active risk in the optimal blend portfolio without reduc- So far, our analysis has assumed active returns are
ing the total portfolio’s information ratio. The total port- uncorrelated across management type and across managers
folio now has an information ratio of 0.87, and an within each management style. This assumption has been
expected active return of 87 bp, with 38% invested pas- roughly consistent with the observed median correla-
sively, 43% invested with structured managers, and 19% tion, as shown in Exhibit 1. What happens to the infor-
invested in traditional strategies. Thus, this portfolio mation ratio if we assume the correlations are higher?
clearly takes risk across the spectrum. Suppose the pairwise correlations are close to the top-
How does this optimal portfolio compare to the bar- quartile level in Exhibit 1, an average active return corre-
bell strategy? To achieve a targeted tracking error of 100 lation among structured managers of 0.25, and an average
bp in the barbell strategy, the investor would need to correlation among traditional managers of 0.35. We will
allocate 25% to the traditional portfolio and 75% to the continue to assume each prospective manager in each strat-

56 A SPECTRUM APPROACH TO ACTIVE RISK BUDGETING FALL 2003


EXHIBIT 6
Results for Selected Correlation Levels at 2% Target Tracking Error
Structured Traditional Number of Number of Structured Traditional
Manager Manager Structured Traditional Allocation Allocation Information
Correlation Correlation Managers Managers (%) (%) Ratio

0.00 0.00 2 4 55 45 0.81


0.25 0.35 2 4 70 30 0.67
0.25 0.35 2 8 70 30 0.71
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egy can generate top-quartile risk-adjusted performance. increases more (and its information ratio falls more).
In the two-manager structured equity program, the Consequently, investors should allocate more assets
tracking error increases by about 12%, going from 152 bp to the structured program in order to neutralize the
to 170 bp. This increase in tracking error reduces the infor- impact of higher active risk in the traditional program. In
mation ratio for the structured portfolio from 0.64 to 0.57. fact, it now takes a 70/30 mix to hit the risk target of 200
For the traditional equity program, the higher correlations bp. The information ratio for the combined program is
increase the overall tracking error by 44%, from 400 bp now 0.67, which amounts to a decline in expected return
(with four managers) to around 575 bp. As with the of 28 bp relative to the zero-correlation case. This high-
structured program, the information ratio declines, going lights the importance of finding managers with indepen-
from 0.60 to 0.42. Thus, the higher increased correlation dent and uncorrelated sources of active return.
among traditional managers produces more significant
deterioration in their total tracking error and information Assume Median Skill Levels
ratios.
Suppose an investor decides to improve the efficiency The expected information ratio for the U.S. equity
of the traditional program by doubling the number of program will also vary with the investor’s views about
managers. The tracking error for the traditional program manager selection skill. By using first-quartile informa-
would fall from 575 bp to 525 bp. Correspondingly, the tion ratios for both structured and traditional managers,
information ratio would increase from 0.42 to 0.46. Thus, our examples implicitly assume skill in manager selection.
the higher correlation of active returns among traditional Suppose we are less confident in our ability to pick man-
managers may produce an incentive to hold more tradi- agers, and instead decide to use median information ratios
tional managers in a portfolio.10 in our analysis. What happens to the mix of passive, struc-
This higher correlation does not mean, however, that tured, and traditional managers?
investors should allocate more assets to traditional man- Clearly, the expected information ratio for the total
agers. In fact, the opposite is true. When the correlations U.S. equity portfolio will decline at all tracking error lev-
among traditional managers increase, investors should els. Exhibit 7 illustrates this point by showing the active
allocate more assets (i.e., more of the active risk budget) return, tracking error, and information ratio for alterna-
to the structured equity program. We can see the impact tive allocations between structured and traditional man-
on the active risk budget in Exhibit 6. agers. As in Exhibit 4, we assume portfolios of two
Suppose an investor has a tracking error target for structured managers and four traditional managers. Con-
the overall active program of 200 bp. When the correla- sistent with the median values in Exhibit 1, we also assume
tion of active returns is zero, we determine that a 55/45 each structured manager has an expected information
blend of structured and traditional managers achieves the ratio of 0.30, and each traditional manager has an expected
target tracking error. This blend has an expected infor- information ratio of 0.10. If we further assume there is no
mation ratio of 0.81. correlation between managers’ active returns, the portfo-
All else equal, higher correlations mean higher lio of two structured managers has an expected informa-
tracking errors and lower information ratios for both tion ratio of 0.42, while the portfolio of four traditional
active programs. Because the correlation increases more managers has an expected information ratio of 0.20.
for the traditional program, however, its tracking error also Notice in Exhibit 7 that the maximum information

FALL 2003 THE JOURNAL OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT 57


EXHIBIT 7 structured equities and 45% to traditional strategies. Now,
Results for Alternative Allocations though, the expected information ratio is much lower at
0.36, versus 0.81 when we assumed greater skill at man-
Structured Traditional Active Tracking ager selection.
Allocation Allocation Return Error Information
(%) (%) (bp) (bp) Ratio
For a more interesting case, suppose the tracking
error target is 100 bp. Since this target is lower than the
100 0 65 152 0.42
tracking error of the optimal blend portfolio, we know
90 10 66 143 0.46 we will need to dilute the active risk with passive man-
80 20 68 146 0.46 agers. Exhibit 8 contrasts the mix among passive, struc-
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70 30 69 160 0.43 tured, and traditional managers at the 100 bp tracking error
60 40 71 184 0.38 target under our two assumptions for manager informa-
tion ratios.
50 50 72 214 0.34
The results in Exhibit 8 are quite interesting. When
40 60 74 248 0.30
investors use the median information ratios (i.e., no par-
30 70 75 284 0.27 ticular skill in manager selection), the allocation to struc-
20 80 77 321 0.24 tured equity increases. Moreover, while the allocation to
10 90 78 360 0.22 structured equity is funded out of both the passive and tra-
0 100 80 400 0.20 ditional strategies, the impact is more pronounced on
the passive program.

ratio is achieved when the portfolio has between 80% and Assume Equal Skill Levels of
90% allocated to structured equities and 10% to 20% Structured and Traditional Managers
allocated to traditional strategies. This portfolio has an
expected information ratio of around 0.46 and a track- The assumptions underlying the analysis of Exhibits
ing error between 143 bp and 146 bp. Compared to 4 and 5 are that there are differences between structured
Exhibit 4, the tracking error for the optimal mix is lower, and traditional managers, and that investors are skilled in
while the allocation to structured equity strategies is manager selection. In Exhibits 7 and 8, we assume that
higher. This result should not be surprising, given the rel- investors are neutral in their abilities to pick managers, but
ative declines in information ratios (from top-quartile to that the differences between structured and traditional
median) for the two strategies. managers are expected to continue.
Now, let’s suppose the target tracking error for the The implication for portfolio strategy in both cases
total U.S. equity program is 200 bp. Since this target is is that investors should move away from a barbell strategy
higher than the tracking error for the optimal portfolio, and take active risk across the active risk spectrum. They
we know risk considerations will determine the optimal should do so by reducing their passive positions and
split between structured and traditional strategies. In par- adding structured active equity programs.
ticular, the allocation to structured strategies will be There is a final possibility that deserves consideration.
exactly the same as when we used first-quartile manager Suppose investors believe there are no long-term perfor-
information ratios. mance differences between structured and traditional man-
As Exhibit 7 suggests, we will still allocate 55% to agers, and that they are not skilled in manager selection.

EXHIBIT 8
Results for Optimal Allocations at 100 bp Tracking Error

Passive Structured Traditional Active Tracking


Manager Allocation Allocation Allocation Return Error Information
Skill (%) (%) (%) (bp) (bp) Ratio

Top Quartile 38 44 18 87 100 0.87


Median 32 54 14 46 100 0.46

58 A SPECTRUM APPROACH TO ACTIVE RISK BUDGETING FALL 2003


An easy way to reflect the assumption of no difference improvements in active returns and information ratios by
between structured and traditional managers is to assume reducing their passive allocations and replacing them with
the median information ratio for all managers is 0.20, allocations to structured equity. We show that by allocat-
approximately halfway between the median information ing risk across the active risk spectrum, investors can sig-
ratios shown in Exhibit 1. Under this assumption, port- nificantly enhance the expected active performance of
folios of two structured managers and four traditional their U.S. equity portfolios.
managers will have information ratios of 0.28 and 0.40, The actual optimal risk allocations will depend on
respectively. The optimal information ratio portfolio has investor assumptions about the ability of active managers
60% allocated to the structured program and 40% allocated to outperform their benchmarks. Using historical sepa-
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to the traditional program, with an overall tracking error rate account data, we have shown that the median and top-
of 184 bp and an overall information ratio of 0.49. quartile information ratios for structured managers have
The dollar allocation to the structured program is exceeded those of traditional managers. This result is not
higher, despite the lower information ratio, because risks, surprising. Given their lower tracking error objectives,
not dollars, are allocated in proportion to the information their focus on reducing unintended risks, and their rela-
ratio. That is, we actually allocate more risk to the tradi- tive freedom from the no-short constraint, we would
tional program despite the lower dollar allocation. expect realized information ratios to be higher for struc-
Suppose the total tracking error target is 200 bp. As tured managers.
in our earlier examples, the allocations to each strategy are Thus, investors should not be alarmed by the rela-
driven by risk rather than information ratio considerations. tive differences in historical information ratios. If these dif-
Consequently, 55% of the portfolio is allocated to the port- ferences persist, the practical implication is that investors
folio of structured strategies, and 45% is allocated to the will continue to need traditional managers on their active
portfolio of traditional strategies. manager rosters—although possibly with somewhat
Now, let’s see what happens at a lower tracking smaller allocations. Our analysis also shows that manager
error target. Suppose the tracking error target is 100 bp. selection is extremely important among traditional man-
In this case, the proper strategy is to make allocations to agers. Investors developing a portfolio of traditional
the optimal information ratio portfolio and the passive managers should balance the benefits of diversification
strategy. The optimal blend is now 46% allocated to pas- against the higher fees and monitoring costs that come
sive, 32% allocated to the structured portfolio, and 22% with manager proliferation.
allocated to traditional strategies. This allocation pro- Our main conclusion is that investors should allo-
duces an expected information ratio of 0.49. cate risks across the entire active risk spectrum. Moreover,
So, even when investors believe there is no infor- when moving from a barbell approach to a spectrum
mation ratio advantage to structured strategies, and they strategy, the allocation to structured managers is more
have no skill at manager selection, it is still optimal to fol- likely to come from the passive side than from the tradi-
low the spectrum strategy, and allocate substantial dollar tional active side.
amounts to structured equities. Finally, this conclusion is reasonably insensitive to dif-
ferent assumptions about manager information ratios and
CONCLUSION correlations. Given reasonable expectations based on his-
torical experience, most investors can benefit from adding
We have reviewed a basic issue most institutional a healthy percentage of structured management to their
investors face: how to allocate assets between active and active equity programs.
passive strategies. Many investors adopt a barbell approach
that achieves their active risk targets by blending traditional, ENDNOTES
high-tracking error, active managers with passive index
funds. By including passive management, however, This article represents the work of its authors, and should
investors are forgoing active returns on what may be a sig- not be taken to reflect any opinion of their employer.
1
nificant portion of their portfolios. Structured refers to low-tracking error managers, who are
We believe most investors would benefit from often called enhanced-index or benchmark-sensitive managers. Tra-
ditional refers to concentrated active managers who usually
putting this capital to work in structured equity pro-
have higher tracking errors and are less benchmark-sensitive.
grams. Most investors can achieve potentially significant

FALL 2003 THE JOURNAL OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT 59


2 8
The returns in the PSN database are gross of fees and sub- These information ratios differ from the top-quartile
ject to both self-selection and survivor bias. Only managers who information ratios in Exhibit 2 because here we are building a
choose to submit are included (presumably those with better portfolio of top-quartile managers, while in Exhibit 2 we were
returns), and managers who fail or merge are dropped. Thus, analyzing a top-quartile portfolio of managers. Thus, here we
our median results may actually be a bit above the median. are assuming considerably more skill at manager selection.
Because these biases affect both manager styles, however, we The median correlation between active returns for the
believe comparisons of structured and traditional managers are structured and traditional portfolios is 0.07.
9
valid. Exhibit 4 assumes the allocation of active risk is consid-
3
These results showing higher information ratios for ered independently from the strategic asset allocation. To put
structured managers vis-à-vis traditional managers are consis- it differently, Exhibit 4 assumes the investor first develops a tar-
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tent with a study of mutual funds by Brown and Harlow get for total active risk in the U.S. equity portfolio, and then
[2002], which shows a clear connection between consistency optimizes the manager structure.
10
of investment style and active risk levels and persistence of per- Of course, the diversification benefit of adding more man-
formance. Generally, a high level of consistency corresponds agers must be balanced against the real cost of potentially higher
to lower active risk levels and more persistent benchmark fees and monitoring costs. Adding more managers with lower
outperformance. allocations per manager makes it less likely that investors will be
4
Untabulated results show that investors can improve able to achieve fee breaks. In addition, selection and monitor-
the expected information ratio of the portfolio of traditional ing costs are likely to rise as the investor adds more managers.
managers by classifying managers by style (growth versus value)
and selecting from each group in equal proportions.
5
REFERENCES
For example, the t-statistic on the difference between
median information ratios for portfolios of four structured and Brown, Keith C., and W.V. Harlow. “Staying the Course: The
traditional managers is 1.72, which is significant at the 11% level. Impact of Investment Style Consistency on Mutual Fund Per-
This result means that we cannot reject the hypothesis of no formance.” Working paper, McCombs School of Business,
difference between manager types at the 95% confidence level, University of Texas at Austin, March 2002.
but we can at the 89% level.
6
Of course, this works only if we assume active risk is Winkelmann, Kurt, and Ron Howard. “Developing an Opti-
uncorrelated with the underlying strategic asset allocation. If the mal Active Risk Budget.” Goldman Sachs Investment Man-
active returns are negatively correlated with the underlying agement Research, July 2001.
assets, then the total portfolio information ratio could be
improved by using a suboptimal active portfolio. In practice,
the correlation between active risk and the strategic asset allo- To order reprints of this article, please contact Ajani Malik at
cation is quite low. amalik@iijournals.com or 212-224-3205.
7
The tracking error of 152 bp for the portfolio of two
structured managers is calculated as the square root of the sum:
(1/2 ¥ 215)2 + 2 ¥ 1/2 ¥ 1/2 ¥ 0 ¥ 215 + (1/2 ¥ 215)2. The
zero in the middle term represents the correlation assumption.
A similar approach applies to the portfolio of the four traditional
managers.

60 A SPECTRUM APPROACH TO ACTIVE RISK BUDGETING FALL 2003

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