Journal of Interactive Advertising

ISSN: (Print) 1525-2019 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/ujia20

Selection of Best Keywords

A Poisson Regression Model

Li Ji, Pan Rui & Wang Hansheng

To cite this article: Li Ji, Pan Rui & Wang Hansheng (2010) Selection of Best Keywords, Journal
of Interactive Advertising, 11:1, 27-35, DOI: 10.1080/15252019.2010.10722175

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/15252019.2010.10722175

Published online: 01 Jul 2013.

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 SELECTION OF BEST KEYWORDS: A POISSON REGRESSION
MODEL

Ji Li, Rui Pan, and Hansheng Wang

ABSTRACT: With the rapid development of the Internet and information technology, consumers have increasingly begun to
acquire information through search engines, thus creating profitable advertising opportunities and advancing the practice of paid
search advertising. For paid search advertising, a key issue is determining which keywords to bid on, because the total number of
possible keywords is huge. To provide theoretical guidance, this study proposes a statistical model that links advertising
effectiveness to keyword characteristics. Through empirical tests with a real data set obtained from the Web site of a service
company in China, this research reveals that parsing features of keywords affects their advertising effectiveness, which can help
advertisers create and select new keywords for paid search advertising campaigns.

Keywords: search engine marketing, paid search advertising, keyword, Poisson regression

The rapid development and popularization of the Internet
have induced profound changes to the philosophies and
related behaviors of consumers. They increasingly search for
product information and make purchases on the Internet,
driving the development of online advertising. By 2011,
according to some estimates, companies will have spent
US$36.5 billion in online advertising, and 40% of that growth
will come from paid search advertising (Agarwal, Hosanagar,
and Smith 2008).
The emergence of paid search advertising relates closely to
search engine technology development and consumer search
behavior. Search engines provide a powerful search technology
that enables consumers to obtain a large amount of
comparatively precise target content in a very short time.
Therefore, search engines offer an important tool for
consumers to access needed information through the Internet.
Usually consumers input a keyword into a search engine,
which then displays relevant information in the list of search
results in a certain order. Top-ranked links appear more likely
to be clicked on than links with lower ranks (Feng, Bhargava,
and Pennock 2007), so earning a top position for a Web site
among the search results can facilitate effective advertising.
Therefore, understanding the ranking policies of a search
engine is crucial.
Typically, a search engine applies two ranking policies,
depending on whether links have been paid for or not. For
unpaid (or unsponsored) links, a search engine ranks them
according to their "relevance," though different search engines
(e.g., Yahoo, Google, Baidu, Bing) have different definitions of
relevance. If a Web site receives the highest relevance score
according to a search engine's algorithm, its link will be placed
on top of the displayed results. Such results typically are
referred to as organic search results (Yang and Ghose 2009), as
differentiated from paid search results.
To fall among the top-ranked entries in an organic search
result is truly beneficial, because it is free. However, to ensure
a Web site appears among the top search results is very
difficult, if not impossible. Therefore, another option is to pay
the search engine to guarantee the Web site will be ranked as
close to the top of the search results as possible. Through the
practice of paid search advertising, an advertiser bids a price
for every click a keyword receives from the search engine.
Usually multiple bids exist for the same keyword. The search
engine then determines their relative order, according to the
bid prices, together with some other search engine-specific
concerns (e.g., Google evaluates the landing page quality).
With the help of paid search advertising, a good ranking can
be obtained simply by bidding a sufficient price. Such paid
search advertising is extremely popular.
To make good use of their paid search advertisements,
marketers also must decide which keywords to select. Search
engines typically allow a single sponsor to bid on tens of
thousands of keywords simultaneously, though most potential
sponsors must consider total possible keywords that run into

Journal of Interactive Advertising, Vol 11 No 1(Fall 2010), pp. 27-35.

© 2010 American Academy of Advertising, All rights reserved
ISSN 1525-2019
28 Journal of Interactive Advertising
the billions. Selecting the right keywords from a huge pool of
possible keyword candidates is challenging; even if the total
number is relatively small, bidding on all of them
simultaneously rarely is preferable. Most keywords do not
generate reliable advertising impact and instead just exhaust
the sponsor's advertising budget. Bidding on the right
keywords is thus the first and very crucial step in optimizing
advertising budget spending.
In addition to the practical importance of keyword selection,
there is a lack of principled theoretical guidance for the actual
practice. Practitioners mainly rely on subjective experience
and/or experiments to select keywords. Because of the vast
number of keywords, this typical practice is ineffective and
time consuming. We therefore construct a statistical model
that links advertising effectiveness to keyword characteristics.
We test our model empirically using a real data set from a
Chinese service Web site. The parsing characteristics of
keywords affect their advertising effectiveness, which can help
advertisers create and select new keywords in paid search
advertising campaigns. Furthermore, the general principles of
our model apply to other, similar online companies.
LITERATURE REVIEW
To facilitate our understanding of keywords in paid search
advertising, as well as gain insights on the clickthrough rates of
paid search advertisements, we systematically reviewed
research into three related aspects: clickthroughs as a key
performance index of paid search advertising, the effect of
keywords, and the effects of keyword location (or ranking) on
clickthrough rates for paid search advertising.
Internet Advertising and Clickthroughs
Prior to the emergence of paid search ads, studies of Internet
advertising focused largely on banner advertising. Researchers
used clickthrough rates (CTR) to measure banner ad
performance (Chatterjee, Hoffman, and Novak 2003), but
these rates began to decline rapidly in the 1990s, from 7% in
1996 to .3% in 2002. Dreze and Hussherr (2003) showed that
these low CTR resulted because consumers generally avoiding
looking at Internet advertising. Cho and Choen (2004) further
found that consumers did so because they perceived that
advertising impeded their goal achievement. They suggested
the adoption of highly customized advertising messages, in
line with the Web context. Moore, Stammerjohan, and Coulter
(2005) also examined the important role of congruity between
the Web site and related advertising, which can increase
Fall 2010
positive attitudes in consumers. Paid search ads can overcome
these shortcomings of banner advertising.
Because paid search advertisements appear in search results
and have a strong correlation with consumer needs,
consumers are more likely to pay attention to ads they believe
are useful, motivating them to click. Thus, CTRs in paid search
advertising are much higher than in banner ads. Furthermore,
advertisers only need to pay for ads clicked on by consumers,
so clickthrough volume offers an important indicator of the
performance of paid search advertising.
Keywords in Paid Search Advertising
To search for information on the Internet, consumers usually
type a keyword or keywords related to the desired information
into a search engine. Because of differences in their focus or
language habits, consumers often use vastly different
keywords. In this sense, the matching probability of keywords
in paid search advertising also varies. The characteristics of
keywords are therefore the first important determinants of
CTR for paid search advertising.
Rutz and Bucklin (2007) study keywords for search engine
advertising using search engine advertising data from a major
hotel chain. They find that keyword features, such as whether
the word "hotel" is included or if they pertain to geographical
information, brand names, and so on, influence the
conversion rate of paid search advertising. They also propose a
conversion rate forecasting model to help advertisers choose
keywords more effectively. Ghose and Yang (2009) study
keyword features, such as length, brand information, and
retailer information. By analyzing data from an online retailer,
they find that consumer CTR for keywords with carried brand
information are higher, and consumers are more likely to
purchase when the keywords contain retailers' information. In
a recent study, Rutz and Bucklin (2010) further analyze the
indirect influence of a general search (no brand information in
the keywords) on branded search (brand information in the
keywords). General keyword search advertisements can reveal
advertiser brand information to consumers, which will affect
their future searches for branded keywords.
Keyword Ranking or Location
Consumers are more likely to click on earlier or higher ranked
links than those listed in the bottom of organic or paid search
list results (Feng, Bhargava, and Pennock 2007). We therefore
expect that the rank of keywords is an important determinant
of the CTR of paid search advertising.
29 Journal of Interactive Advertising
Several researchers focus on empirical analyses of keyword
rankings. Rutz and Bucklin (2007) find that the average
position of keywords affects conversion rates; Agarwal,
Hosanagar, and Smith (2008) reveal that a more prominent
location of a search advertisement is not necessarily better
than a less prominent one. Although the CTR of paid search
advertisements decrease when the location is less prominent,
for long keywords, the conversion rate increases first, then
decreases following the decline in ad location.
Advertisers must bid more for each keyword to compete for a
better rank, location, or position. Several researchers study the
bidding mechanism of paid search advertising (e.g., Edelman
and Ostrovsky 2007; Edelman, Ostrovsky, and Schwarz 2007),
but because this topic is not the focus of this study, we do not
mention their findings here.
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
For keyword selection, previous studies mainly focus on
online businesses, such as online hotel reservations, or e-
commerce. However, more offline companies also make use of
paid search advertising to promote their company Web sites
or raise brand awareness. Moreover, there are no studies on
paid search advertising in the Chinese market. Language
differences ensure that keyword research has a strong cultural
component. Therefore, this study contributes to existing
research on paid search advertising by answering two key
research questions:
RQ1: How do offline companies choose keywords in paid
search advertisements, considering that they focus on
communication and promotion of corporate and brand
image, whereas online companies instead aim to sell
products or services?
RQ2: How can advertisers create and select keywords in
paid search advertising for the Chinese market, in
accordance with the characteristics of Chinese syntax?
METHODOLOGY
For this study, we investigate each keyword's clickthrough
volume, as determined by the parsing characteristics and
ranking of each keyword.
Data Source
The data for this study came from a tutoring agency company
that helps customers find tutors or extracurricular classes to
meet their education needs. The data were collected for 38
days, from October 20, 2009, until November 26, 2009. During
Fall 2010
the 38-day data collection period, users employed 648
keywords to search. The data therefore consisted of searched
keywords, the corresponding clickthrough volume, and the
average rank of the keywords.
Data Recoding
Because the keywords are text messages that are not easy to
incorporate in a quantitative analysis, we decompose them
according to their semantic structure. The general patterns of
keywords in the data set are as follows:
• "北京家教 " (tutoring in Beijing);
• "初三物理家教 " (physics tutoring for students in the
third year of the secondary school); or
• "小学英语辅导班 " (primary school English instructing
class).
Thus, we derive the following general structure for recoding
keywords:
Place + Action + Grade + Subject + Purpose + Classification,
where
• Place means the place where tutors can be found, such as
a province, city, or region name, such as "北京 " (Beijing),
"上海 " (Shanghai), and so on. It allows for a default level.
There are 22 levels (i.e., cities) for this factor.
• Action describes the act of finding tutors, which provides
for a default level. There are two levels, "找 " (searching
for) and the default.
• Grade or the grade level taught by tutors, such as "小学 "
(primary school), "初三 " (third year in secondary school),
or "高三 " (sixth year in the secondary school), with a
default level. Seven levels constitute this factor.
• Subject describes the specific subjects for tutors, such as
"数学 " (mathematics), "语文 " (Chinese), "英语 "
(English), and so on. With the default level, there are six
levels in this factor.
• Purpose, a core component of keywords, indicates the
most basic search purposes, such as "家教 " (tutoring),
"辅导 " (instructing), and so on. To avoid keywords that
lead to nothing, we require no default for this factor,
which consists of five levels.
• Classification describes the kinds of tutoring service
searchers will find, such as "中介 " (agent), "网 " (Web
30 Journal of Interactive Advertising Fall 2010

site), or "班 " (tutoring classes). A default level exists, and To gain some intuitive understanding, we took three keywords
there are a total of six levels. as examples and decomposed their semantic components. We
present the results in Table 1.
Table 1. Examples for Keyword Recoding

Keyword 北京家教 初三物理家教 小学英语辅导班

(Tutoring in (Physics tutoring for students in the third (Primary school English
Beijing) year of secondary school) instructing class)

Place 北京 (Beijing) NA NA

Action NA NA NA

Grade NA 初三 小学
(third year of secondary school) (primary school)

Subject NA 物理 (physics) 英语 (English)

Purpose 家教 (tutoring) 家教 (tutoring) 辅导 (instructing)

Classification NA NA 班 (class)

Furthermore, we added the total clickthrough volume for the
38-day data collection period to derive a final clickthrough
volume. To study the influence of keyword rank, we treated it
as a categorical variable. Specifically, we classified rank into
three categories: Category 1 consists of those keywords with an
average rank between 1 to 1.5, Category 2 comprised those
from 1.5 to 2.5, and Category 3 were keywords with ranks
higher than 2.5. In addition, we obtained the length of each
keyword by taking one Chinese character as two characters in
length; therefore, the words "北京家教 ," "初三物理家教 ,"
and "小学英语辅导班 " are 8, 12, and 14 characters in length,
respectively. In total, the data include 648 samples.
Model Setup
Because the dependent variable (clickthrough volume) is a
form of count data, we introduced Poisson regression to the
analysis. We assume that the probability of clickthrough
volume for the ith keyword is k times:
,
where is the average clickthrough volume for the ith
keyword. Although clickthrough volume is an integer, the
average clickthrough volume is continuous. Because
has a large variance, we carried out a logarithmic
transformation. The Poisson regression model is:
where is the average clickthrough volume for the ith
keyword; rank1 and rank2 refer to the first and second category
of rank, with the third category as a baseline; and lengthi is the
length of the ith keyword. We recoded the keyword as six
factors, so refers to the kth level under the jth (j = 1, ..., 6)
factor of the ith keyword. It is a dummy variable, for
which means the total number of levels under the jth
factor.
RESULTS
Descriptive Analysis
We summarize the descriptive statistics for clickthrough
volume, rank, and length in Table 2.
31 Journal of Interactive Advertising Fall 2010

Table 2. Descriptive Analysis for Clickthrough Volume, Rank, and Keyword Length

Variable Maximum Median Minimum Mean Standard Deviation

Clickthrough volume 3143 3 1 40.89 185.61

Rank 3 1 1 1.46 0.69

Keyword length 18 12 4 12.47 2.46

As Table 2 shows, the largest clickthrough volume for a
keyword is 3,143, and the smallest is just 1 click. The median
clickthrough volume is 3, which means the distribution of this
variable is significantly right-skewed; most of the clickthrough
volume of a keyword is no more than 3 times, but some
keywords were clicked on 3,143 times. The highest rank is 1,
and the lowest is 3, due to the rearrangement of this variable.
The lengths of the keywords range from 4 to 18 characters.
For the basic characteristics of the keywords, we conducted a
descriptive analysis of the six factors. Of the 22 place levels, the
default accounts for 10.34% of total keywords, indicating that
a significant portion of keywords do not include any specific
place information. The keywords containing "北京" (Beijing)
and "天津" (Tianjin) account for 6.64% and 6.17%,
respectively, of total keywords. The action variable mostly is
accounted for by the default (94.91%), followed by "找 "
(searching) at 5.09%. The default level of the grade also
accounts for the largest proportion (50.31%), followed by
"高中" (senior secondary) and "小学" (primary school), with
shares of 13.73% and 11.88%, respectively. Similarly, of its six
levels, the default subject level accounts for 55.56%, followed
by "数学" (mathematics) and "英语" (English), which
represent 14.51% and 13.43%, respectively. For the purpose
variable, we included no default level, and most of the
keyword sample consists of "家教" (tutoring, 69.44%),
followed by "辅导" (instructing, 21.76%). Finally, classification
mainly consists of the default level, at 83.95%, followed by "班"
(classes) at 8.64%.
Regression Results
Judging from the overall fit of the model, the chi-squared
goodness of fit is 22,688, with a p-value of less than .0001, so
the model is significant. The estimated parameters of all
variables, the standard errors, and the p-values are in Tables 3-
9. The first level in each table is the benchmark; for this study,
the default level of each factor, except purpose, provide that
benchmark.

Table 3. Regression Results: Intercept, Rank, and Keyword Length

Variable Parameter Standard Error p-Value

Intercept 7.7400 .1070 <.0001

Rank (Category1) .4437 .0364 <.0001

Rank (Category 2) .4774 .0306 <.0001

Keyword length -.4877 .0091 <.0001

In Table 3, we show that the coefficients of the two categories coefficient is negative, that is, the longer the keyword, the less
of rank are positive, so when the rank of the keyword is 1 or 2, the clickthrough volume.
the clickthrough volume is larger than that of one ranked 3.
Specifically, the coefficient of Category 1 is smaller than that of
Category 2, which indicates that the clickthrough volume is
greater when the rank is 2. Furthermore, the keyword length
32 Journal of Interactive Advertising Fall 2010

Table 4. Regression Result: Place

Level Parameter Standard Error p-Value

NA .0000

Beijing -.3444 .0518 <.0001

Changchun -1.0845 .0675 <.0001

Chengdu -.3456 .0589 <.0001

Dalian -.7806 .0631 <.0001

... ... ... ...

All levels for the place factor are significant and negative. That any geographic information. The average regression
is, the clickthrough volume of keywords that include place coefficient for place is -.7906.
information is significantly less than that of keywords without

Table 5. Regression Result: Action

Level Parameter Standard Error p-Value

NA .0000

找 (searching for) -2.1176 .0496 <.0001

Action is also significant, and the coefficient is negative,

indicating that keywords that do not express any action earn
the largest clickthrough volumes.
Table 6. Regression Result: Grade

Level Parameter Standard Error p-Value

NA .0000

初三 (third year in junior secondary school) -1.8595 .0922 <.0001

初中 (junior secondary school) -1.5624 .0693 <.0001

高中 (senior secondary) -1.2474 .0903 <.0001

... ... ... ...

The regression coefficients for all grade levels are significant lower than those with no grade information. The mean of the
and negative. The clickthrough volumes for keywords regression coefficients for all grade levels is -1.3645.
containing information about grades thus are significantly
33 Journal of Interactive Advertising Fall 2010

Table 7. Regression Result: Subject

Level Parameter Standard Error p-Value

NA .0000

化学 (chemistry) -2.2307 .0987 <.0001

数学 (mathematics) -.7884 .0516 <.0001

物理 (physics) -1.7651 .0784 <.0001

... ... ... ...

Similar to the previous factors, all subject levels are significant, are significantly less than those of keywords without subject-
with negative regression coefficients. The clickthrough related information. The mean of the regression coefficients
volumes of keywords containing information about subjects for the subject factor at all levels is -1.3373.

Table 8. Regression Result: Purpose

Level Parameter Standard Error p-Value

课外辅导 (extracurricular instructing) .0000

辅导 (instructing) -.9870 .0974 <.0001

家教 (tutoring) 2.1932 .0868 <.0001

家教辅导 (instructing by tutor) -1.0928 .1571 <.0001

... ... ... ...

Because there is no default level for the purpose factor, we use others are negative, among which the coefficient of "家教 " is
the level selected by the statistical software SAS as a greatest. Therefore, a keyword that includes "家教 " has a
benchmark. As Table 7 shows, the regression coefficients in all greater clickthrough volume than the others.
levels are significant; in addition, some are positive, whereas

Table 9. Regression Result: Classification

Level Parameter Standard Error p-Value

NA .0000

班 (class) .9556 .0666 <.0001

网 (Web site) 1.0163 .0205 <.0001

信息 (information) -.5376 .0484 <.0001

... ... ... ...

34 Journal of Interactive Advertising
Finally, for the classification factor, all the regression
coefficients for other levels are significant, though in different
directions. For example, the coefficient of "网 " (Web site) is
positive, so the clickthrough volumes of keywords that express
a preference for a tutoring Web site is greater than those of
keywords without any classification preference.
Using all estimated parameters for all levels of the independent
variables, we can create keywords and estimate their
clickthrough volumes. Take "北京数学家教 " (mathematics
tutoring in Beijing) for example: Its six factor levels are as
follows: place = "北京 " (Beijing); action = NA; grade = NA;
subject = "数学 " (mathematics); purpose = "家教 " (tutoring);
and classification = NA. The length of this keyword is 12.
When the assumed rank is 2, the average clickthrough volume
= exp (7.7400 + .4774 - .4877 ´ 12 - .3444 - .7884 + 2.1932) =
30.7349. This computation is an extreme case, because we
assume a rank in Category 2. In reality, the actual clickthrough
volume of the keyword would likely be lesser.
DISCUSSION
Through Poisson regression analysis, we have learned about
the influence of several independent variables and their
respective levels on the clickthrough volumes of keywords.
Rank has a nonlinear effect; the keyword with an average rank
between 1.5 to 2.5 has the highest clickthrough volume,
followed by the keyword with an average rank between 1 to
1.5. The keyword with an average rank greater than 2.5 has the
lowest clickthrough volume. The length of a keyword has
negative effect, which means that the longer the keyword, the
lesser its clickthrough volume. In addition, various factors of
the keywords themselves significantly affect clickthrough
volume. Advertisers can use these results to predict the
clickthrough volume of a specific keyword, then select new
keywords that will yield higher clickthrough volumes to
enhance their marketing performance. For most factors, the
default level achieves the highest clickthrough volume, in
support of the assumption of a negative relationship between
the length and clickthrough volume of the keywords.
Therefore, when constructing new keywords, the advertisers
should start from the default level of all factors (i.e., the
keyword for all default levels is "家教," or tutoring), and then
adjust the various factors in turn to find a clickthrough volume
that meets their standard. When calculating the clickthrough
volume of these keywords, we did not take rank into
consideration, but in practice of course, specific rank
information should be obtained before calculating the
clickthrough volume.
Fall 2010
PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS
As an emerging means of advertising, paid search advertising
has rapidly developed in recent years and been recognized and
accepted by an increasing number of advertisers and
consumers. Paid search advertising challenges traditional
advertising media in terms of cost, accuracy, flexibility, and
controllability. It also influences e-commerce development,
marketing strategies, and consumer behaviors.
Approximately 40 million companies use search engine
ranking and bidding to conduct their marketing activities.
However, a vast majority of companies still fail to recognize
the space for improvement in their paid search advertising
decisions. Keyword construction is an initial step, yet in
China, no products or services provide effective keyword
construction suggestions. A typical suggestion is to find
keywords that relate to the advertiser's products, brands,
competitors, and target customers, then generate a large
number of keywords through permutation and combination.
But which specific keywords induce effective advertising
performance? Among these effective keywords, what kind of
internal relations do they show? What key techniques support
keyword permutations and combinations? Prior to our study,
there has been no effective way to analyze these issues to come
up with effective solutions.
This study reveals some inherent rules for effective keyword
construction through a performance analysis of keywords in a
paid search advertising campaign by a service company. We
thus offer advice about the choice of keywords by a company.
Moreover, this study provides a keyword selection approach to
paid search advertisers. We discover statistical relationships
between the rules and techniques of keyword design;
marketers could increase clickthrough volumes by analyzing
historical data and constructing high-performing keywords
accordingly.
LIMITATIONS AND FURTHER RESEARCH
This exploratory study on the use of keywords in paid search
advertising naturally contains some limitations that should be
addressed in further research. First, we do not take consumer
behaviors into account. The most fundamental reason for the
relationship between keywords and clickthrough volume may
be varying consumer demands. This study therefore provides
only a decision-making tool for advertisers, rather than
granting more insight into the very essence of paid search
advertising. Additional studies should analyze paid search
advertising keywords from a consumer perspective to discover
35 Journal of Interactive Advertising Fall 2010

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Color Effects on Attention and Attitudes," Journal of
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keyword, and also consumes the advertising budget, it is Rutz, Oliver J. and Randolph E. Bucklin (2007), "A Model for
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