Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg Statistics II

Chair of Econometrics
Prof. Dr. Christoph Wunder

Exercise Set 3 - Solutions

Winter Semester 2023/24

1. A sample size of n = 5 is selected from a population. Under what conditions is the sampling
distribution of X̄ normal?

• When sampling is done from a population that follows a normal distribution

with mean µ and standard deviation σ.

2. Suppose a sample is drawn from a uniform distribution. Under what conditions is the sam-
pling distribution of X̄ normal?

As per the central limit theorem - the sampling distribution of the sample mean X̄
will tend to a normal distribution as the sample size n becomes large enouch. As
a rule of thumb n ≥ 30.

3. The weight of each ’32g’ chocolate bar is normally distributed with a mean of 32.2g and a
standard deviation of 0.3g.

a) What is the probability that if a customer buys one chocolate bar , that bar will weigh
less than 32g?
b) Find the probability that, if a customer buys a pack of four bars, that mean weight of
the 4 bars will be more than 32g?

32−32.2
a) P(X < 32) = P(z < 0.3 )

= P(Z < −0.67) = φ(−0.67) = 0.251

b) P(x̄ > 32) = P( x̄−µ

√σ
> 32−32.2
0.3
√
)
n 4

= P(Z > −1.33) = 1 − φ(−1.33) = 1 − 0.092 = 0.908

4. A random sample of n = 30 is obtained from a population with a mean µ = 100 and a variance
σ2 = 900,

a) What is the mean and the variance of the sampling distribution for the sample mean?
b) What is the probability that x̄ > 109 ?
c) What is the probability that 96 ≤ x̄ ≤ 110?

1
 d) What is the probability that x̄ ≤ 107?

a) E(X̄) = µ = 100

σ2
Var(X̄) = n = 30

b) P(x̄ > 109) = P( x̄−µ

√σ
> 109−100
√30
)
n 30

P(Z > 1.64) = 1 − φ(1.64) = 1 − 0.950 = 0.05

X̄−µ
c) P(96 ≤ X̄ ≤ 100) = P( 96−100
√30
≤ √σ
≤ 110−100
√30
)
30 n 30

= P(−0.72 ≤ Z ≤ 1.83) = φ(1.83) − φ(−0.73) = 0.966 − 0.233 = 0.733

d) P(X̄ ≤ 107) = P( X̄−µ

√σ
≤ 107−100
√30
) = P(Z ≤ 1.28) = φ(1.28) = 0.9
n 30

5. A random sample of 16 junior managers in the offices of corporations in a large city centre
was taken to estimate average daily commuting time for all such managers. Suppose that the
population times have a normal distribution with mean 87 minutes and standard deviation 22
minutes,

a) What is the standard error of the sample mean commuting time?

b) What is the probability that the sample mean is less than 100 minutes?
c) What is the probability that the sample mean is more than 80 minutes?
d) What is the probability that the sample mean is outside the range of 85 to 95 minutes?
e) Suppose that a second random sample 50 junior managers is taken. Without doing any
calculations, state whether the probabilities in parts (b), (c), and (d) would be higher,
lower or the same for the second sample.

a) SD(X̄) = √σ = √22 = 5.5

n 16

b) P(x̄ < 100) = P( x̄−µ

√σ
< 100−87
√22
)
n 16

P(Z < 2.36) = φ(2.36) = 0.991

c) P(x̄ > 80) = P( x̄−µ

√σ
> 80−87
√22
)
n 16

P(Z > −1.27) = 1 − φ(−1.27) = 0.898

d) P(x̄ ≤ 85) + P(x̄ ≥ 95)

P(x̄ ≤ 85) = P( x̄−µ

√σ
≤ 85−87
√22
) = P(Z ≤ −0.36) = φ(−0.36) = 0.359
n 16

2
 P(x̄ ≥ 95) = P( x̄−µ
√σ
≥ 95−87
√22
) = P(Z ≥ 1.45) = 1 − φ(1.45) = 1 − 0.926 = 0.074
n 16

0.359 + 0.074 = 0.433

e) b - higher ; c - higher; d - lower

6. Suppose that we have a population with proportion p = 0.60 and a random sample of size
n = 100 drawn from the population.

a) What is the probability that the sample proportion is greater than 0.66?
b) What is the probability that the sample proportion is less than 0.48?
c) What is the probability that the sample proportion is between 0.52 and 0.66?

a) P(P̂ > 0.66) = P( qP̂−p

p(1−p)
> 0.66−0.6
q )
0.6·0.4
n 100

P(Z > 1.22) = 1 − φ(1.22) = 1 − 0.889 = 0.111

b) P(P̂ < 0.48) = P( qP̂−p

p(1−p)
< 0.48−0.6
q )
0.6·0.4
n 100

P(Z < −2.45) = φ(−2.45) = 0.007

c) P(0.52 < P̂ < 0.48) = P( 0.52−0.6

q < qP̂−p < 0.66−0.6
q )
0.6·0.4 p(1−p) 0.6·0.4
100 n 100

P(−1.63Z < 1.22) = φ(1.22) − φ(−1.64) = 0.889 − 0.052 = 0.837

7. A record store owner finds that 20% of customers entering her store make a purchase. One
morning 180 people, who can be regarded as a random sample of all customers, enter the
store.

a) What is the mean of the distribution of the sample proportion of customers making a
purchase?
b) What is the variance of the sample proportion?
c) What is the standard error of the sample proportion?
d) What is the probability that the sample proportion is less than 0.15?

a) E(P̂) = p = 0.2

p(1−p) 0.2·0.8
b) Var(P̂) = n = 180 = 0.0009

q q
p(1−p) 0.2·0.8
c) SD(P̂ = n = 180 ) = 0.03

3
 d) P(P̂ < 0.15) = P( qP̂−p
p(1−p)
< 0.15−0.2
q
0.2·0.8
)
n 180

P(Z < −1.68) = φ(−1.68) = 0.046

8. Suppose that 50% of all adult Americans believe that federal budget deficits at recent levels
cause long-term harm to the nation’s economy. What is the probability that more than 58%
of a random sample of 250 adult Americans would hold this belief?

• P(P̂ > 0.58) = P( qP̂−p

p(1−p)
> 0.58−0.5
q
0.5·0.5
)
n 250

P(Z > 2.53) = 1 − φ(2.53) = 1 − 0.994 = 0.006

4
 PRACTICE QUESTIONS

1. Starbucks regularly introduces new coffee drinks and attempts to evaluate how these drinks
fare by estimating the price its franchise can charge for them ans sell enough cups to justify
marketing the drink. Suppose the following random sample of prices a new drink sells for in
New York (in Dollars) is available: 4.50, 4.25, 4.10, 4.75, 4.80, 3.90, 4.20, 4.55, 4.65, 4.85,
3.85, 4.15, 4.85, 3.95, 4.30 ,4.60, 4.00. Computer the sample estimators of the population
mean and standard deviation.

• mean= 4.37
• s.d = 0.3486

2. A random sample of size n = 35 is obtained from a population with mean µ = 400 and a
variance σ2 = 1600.

1. What is the mean and variance of the sampling distribution for the sampling means?
2. What is the probability that x̄ > 412?
3. What is the probability that 393 ≤ x̄ ≤ 407?
4. What is the probability that x̄ ≤ 389?

σ2
• E(X̄) = µ = 400; Var(X̄) = n = 45.71
• 0.0384
• 0.7016
• 0.0516

3. The weekly income of graduates one year after graduation is normally distributed and with
an average of $600. Suppose the distribution of weekly income has a standard deviation of
$100. What is the probability that 25 randomly selected graduates have an average weekly
income of less than $550?

• 0.0062

4. Suppose that we have a population with a proportion p = 0.40 and a random sample of size
n = 100 drawn from the population.

1. What is the probability that the sample proportion is greater than 0.45?
2. What is the probability that the sample proportion is less than 0.29?
3. What is the probability that the sample proportion is between 0.35 and 0.51?

5
a) 0.1539
b) 0.0122
c) 0.8339