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Let's analyze the problem step by step:
1. Box Information:
○ Box 1: Contains 1 white ball and 999 red balls.
○ Box 2: Contains 1 red ball and 999 white balls.
2. We want to find the probability that the ball came from Box 1 given
that it is red. Let's denote this event as F (for "from Box 1") and the
event of drawing a red ball as R.
3. Using Bayes' Rule, we can express the desired probability as:
[ P(F | R) = \frac{{P(F) \cdot P(R | F)}}{{P(F) \cdot P(R | F) + P(F') \cdot P(R | F')}} ]
● (P(F)): Probability of selecting Box 1 initially (since there are two boxes,
this is 1/2).
● (P(R | F)): Probability of drawing a red ball from Box 1 (since there is
only one red ball in Box 1, this is 1/1000).
● (P(F')): Probability of selecting Box 2 initially (also 1/2).
● (P(R | F')): Probability of drawing a red ball from Box 2 (since there is
only one red ball in Box 2, this is 1/1000).
4. Plugging in the values:
[ P(F | R) = \frac{{\frac{1}{2} \cdot \frac{1}{1000}}}{{\frac{1}{2} \cdot \frac{1}
{1000} + \frac{1}{2} \cdot \frac{999}{1000}}} = \frac{1}{3} ]
Therefore, the probability that the ball came from Box 1 given that it is red is
1/3.
Alternatively, we can reason intuitively:
● Since there is an equal count of balls in each box, each individual ball
has an equal probability of being selected.
● Three out of the five red balls are in Box 1.
Thus, the probability of drawing a red ball from Box 1 is indeed 1/3. 🎱

Source(s)
1. Probability of selecting a red ball from the first box
2. Probability of Getting Two Red Balls From the Chosen Box
3. Pick Two Balls from a Box, What is the Probability Both are Red?
4. Probability of getting two balls of the same colour
5. Finding probability of drawing red and blue balls from two boxes.