Navigating the New World Order: Dr.

Andrew Michta
Talks Geopolitical Shifts and India’s Emerging Role

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has left a profound socio-economic

scar across the globe, with countries scrambling to realign alliances
and devise new bilateral trade agreements to ensure survival. The
war, initiated by Russian forces more than 500 days ago and
described by Russian leader Vladmir Putin as a "special military
operation", has disturbed global dynamics and brought new aspects
of the conflict to light, such as the recent revolt by the Wagner
group against the Putin administration.

Video to be embedded:
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In a recent dialogue with Prassenjit Lahiri, Senior Partner at the

South Asia-based consulting firm SFC Asia, Dr Andrew Michta, Dean
of the College of International and Security Studies at the George C.
Marshall European Centre for Security Studies, dissected the
conflict's complexities, its influence on international relations and
trade, Putin's aspirations, the geopolitical tug-of-war between the
West and the Russia-China alliance, and the worldwide energy
dilemma.

The Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Global Power Structures

Dr. Michta described the ongoing conflict, which has lasted over 16
months, as a game-changer for international politics. In the
conversation with Mr. Lahiri, he noted the war had disrupted a three-
decade-long period of peace and downsizing of defence spending
post-Cold War. The present conflict is the most substantial
conventional war Europe has witnessed since 1945, making
resolution an intricate process. Furthermore, the threat posed by the
Russia-China alliance against the United States and other
democracies exacerbates the situation.

In Dr. Michta's view, Putin's Russia is on a mission to resume what

began during the Cold War, while China aspires to replace the
existing world order with its own mercantile capitalist ideology,
aspiring to become the leading power. He emphasized that the
ongoing scenario compelled countries to reconsider their
dependencies on rivals for crucial commodities, including minerals
and equipment. He also shed light on Russia's increasing
dependency on China for crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG)
sales.

He further highlighted the changing geopolitical dynamics in Eurasia

as a result of this new alignment, as well as the growing domestic
instability in Russia resulting from the war, the attempted Wagner
mutiny, and the emigration of Russian citizens opposed to the
conflict and Putin's actions.

Despite the brief duration of the Wagner group's revolt, it exposed

potential cracks in Russia's military hierarchy. The absence of
immediate military response to the mutiny could indicate a sense of
rebellion within the ranks, suggested Michta. Many analysts argue
that Putin could leverage this incident to consolidate domestic
support, fuelling fear of both external and internal threats.

However, Michta cautioned against overlooking Russia's troubled

military history, citing the potential political and economic
repercussions if Russia fails in Ukraine.

Energy Crisis, China's Role, and Indo-American Relations

The fallout from the war led to an international energy crisis, as

many countries boycotted Russia, the world's second-largest crude
oil producer. Simultaneously, Russia imposed restrictions on oil
purchases, demanding payment in Russian rubles, which deterred
many European nations.

China, however, quickly stepped in to absorb Russia's excess oil

output. Moreover, the availability of cheap labor in China and much
of Asia has drawn industries to relocate their supply chains there,
thus further empowering China and posing an existential threat to
the West.

Dr. Michta also discussed India's recent increase in Russian oil

purchases due to its cost-effectiveness, and the growing Indo-
American relations, spurred by the current geopolitical situation and
the strengthening Russia-China ties. He suggested that the crisis
might present an opportunity for India to accelerate modernization,
although it also introduces risks, particularly in its relationship with
China.
Predicting Future Scenarios and Global Power Dynamics

Michta predicts that India's ties with the US and the West will
strengthen. However, he also cautioned that the partnership could
strain India's relationships with China and Russia. While India has
remained neutral about the conflict publicly, advocating for peace,
Michta argues that the West should recognize India's uniqueness
and potential due to its diversity.

Regarding Russia, he warns against underestimating the nation

despite its diminishing strength, and highlights that China stands to
gain from the conflict, particularly by acquiring advanced Russian
technology.

As nations align themselves in response to the war, their choices

will likely be driven by interests rather than ethical considerations
or justice. The direction of the war remains uncertain, with the
resilient Russians known for their ability to regroup and reorganize.
However, the fallout from the conflict will undeniably continue to
reverberate globally.