SALMAN MOHIDEEN

#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting

Q 1 What is forecast for January 2018 using the mean method?

A- Ft+1=dt
N
year month period actual demand actual
2016 Jan 1 1,700
2016 Feb 2 1,675
2016 Mar 3 1,775
2016 Apr 4 1,800
2016 May 5 1,680
2016 Jun 6 1,850
2016 Jul 7 2,000
2016 Aug 8 2,200
2016 Sep 9 1,950
2016 Oct 10 1,400
2016 Nov 11 1,200
2016 Dec 12 1,000
2017 Jan 13 1,759
2017 Feb 14 1,750
2017 Mar 15 1,850
2017 Apr 16 1,775
2017 May 17 1,750
2017 Jun 18 1,900
2017 Jul 19 2,100
2017 Aug 20 2,300
2017 Sep 21 2,000
2017 Oct 22 1,500
2017 Nov 23 1,000
2017 Dec 24 900
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
40814/24 = 1701 forecast for Jan 2017

Q 2 What is the forecast for January 2017 using the naïve method?

mont
year h period actual demand forecast
2018 Aug 8 2,200
2018 Sep 9 1,950
2018 Oct 10 1,400
2018 Nov 11 1,200
2018 Dec 12 1,000

The forecast for January 1000

Q 3 Mean Method

A- A- Ft+1=dt
N

perio
year month d actual demand forecast
201
6 Jan 1 1,700
201 Feb 2 1,675
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
6
201
6 Mar 3 1,775
201
6 Apr 4 1,800
201
6 May 5 1,680
201
6 Jun 6 1,850
201
6 Jul 7 2,000
201
6 Aug 8 2,200
201
6 Sep 9 1,950
201
6 Oct 10 1,400
201
6 Nov 11 1,200
201
6 Dec 12 1,000
201
7 Jan 13 1,759
201
7 Feb 14 1,750
201
7 Mar 15 1,850
201
7 Apr 16 1,775
201
7 May 17 1,750
201
7 Jun 18 1,900
201
7 Jul 19 2,100
201 Aug 20 2,300
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
7
201
7 Sep 21 2,000
201
7 Oct 22 1,500
201
7 Nov 23 1,000
201
7 Dec 24 900

3.1 – 40814/24 = 1701 forecast for Jan 2018

perio
year month d actual demand forecast
201
6 Jan 1 4,250
201
6 Feb 2 4,188
201
6 Mar 3 4,438
201
6 Apr 4 4,500
201
6 May 5 4,200
201
6 Jun 6 4,625
201
6 Jul 7 5,000
201
6 Aug 8 5,500
201
6 Sep 9 4,875
201
6 Oct 10 3,500
201
6 Nov 11 3,000
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
201
6 Dec 12 2,500
201
7 Jan 13 4,399
201
7 Feb 14 4,375
201
7 Mar 15 4,625
201
7 Apr 16 4,438
201
7 May 17 4,375
201
7 Jun 18 4,750
201
7 Jul 19 5,250
201
7 Aug 20 5,750
201
7 Sep 21 5,000
201
7 Oct 22 3,750
201
7 Nov 23 2,500
201
7 Dec 24 2,250

3.2 – 102038/24 = 4252 forecast for Jan 2018

perio
year month d actual demand forecast
201
6 Jan 1 5,100
201
6 Feb 2 5,025
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
201
6 Mar 3 5,325
201
6 Apr 4 5,400
201
6 May 5 5,040
201
6 Jun 6 5,550
201
6 Jul 7 6,000
201
6 Aug 8 6,600
201
6 Sep 9 5,850
201
6 Oct 10 4,200
201
6 Nov 11 3,600
201
6 Dec 12 3,000
201
7 Jan 13 5,278
201
7 Feb 14 5,250
201
7 Mar 15 5,550
201
7 Apr 16 5,325
201
7 May 17 5,250
201
7 Jun 18 5,700
201
7 Jul 19 6,300
201
7 Aug 20 6,900
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
201
7 Sep 21 6,000
201
7 Oct 22 4,500
201
7 Nov 23 3,000
201
7 Dec 24 2,700

3.3 – 122443/24=5102 forecast for Jan 2018

Q.4 What is forecast for March 2017 using the 4 month moving
average method?
year month period actual demand
201
6 Jan 1 1,700
201
6 Feb 2 1,675
201
6 Mar 3 1,775
201
6 Apr 4 1,800
201
6 May 5 1,680
201
6 Jun 6 1,850
201
6 Jul 7 2,000
201
6 Aug 8 2,200
201
6 Sep 9 1,950
201
6 Oct 10 1,400
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
201
6 Nov 11 1,200
201
6 Dec 12 1,000
201
7 Jan 13 1,759
201
7 Feb 14 1,750

Ft+1 =  Dt
n

Ans 4.1
Ft+1 = forecast of demand for next period
Dt = demand for current periods
N = # of data points in the moving average
F(March 2017)= F(Feb2017)+F(Jan2017)+F(Dec2016)+F(Nov2016)/4
= 1750+1760+1000+1200/4
= 5709/4
The forecast for March 2017 = 1427

year month period actual demand

201
6 Jan 1 4,250
201
6 Feb 2 4,188
201
6 Mar 3 4,438
201 Apr 4 4,500
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
6
201
6 May 5 4,200
201
6 Jun 6 4,625
201
6 Jul 7 5,000
201
6 Aug 8 5,500
201
6 Sep 9 4,875
201
6 Oct 10 3,500
201
6 Nov 11 3,000
201
6 Dec 12 2,500
201
7 Jan 13 4,399
201
7 Feb 14 4,375

A 4.2
F(March 2017)= F(Feb2017)+F(Jan2017)+F(Dec2016)+F(Nov2016)/4
= 4375+4399+2500+3000/4
= 14274/4

The forecast for March 2017 = 3569

SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting

year month period actual demand

201
6 Jan 1 5,100
201
6 Feb 2 5,025
201
6 Mar 3 5,325
201
6 Apr 4 5,400
201
6 May 5 5,040
201
6 Jun 6 5,550
201
6 Jul 7 6,000
201
6 Aug 8 6,600
201
6 Sep 9 5,850
201
6 Oct 10 4,200
201
6 Nov 11 3,600
201
6 Dec 12 3,000
201
7 Jan 13 5,278
201
7 Feb 14 5,250

Q4.3
F(March 2017)= F(Feb2017)+F(Jan2017)+F(Dec2016)+F(Nov2016)/4
= 5250+5278+3000+3600/4
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
= 17128/4

The forecast for March 2017 =4282

5 -Calculate the forecast for March 2017 using a four period moving
average?
The weights of 0.4, 0.3,0.2 and 0.1 are assigned to the most recent, second
most recent, third most recent and fourth most recent periods respectively .

year month period actual demand

201
6 Jan 1 1,700
201
6 Feb 2 1,675
201
6 Mar 3 1,775
201
6 Apr 4 1,800
201
6 May 5 1,680
201
6 Jun 6 1,850
201
6 Jul 7 2,000
201
6 Aug 8 2,200
201
6 Sep 9 1,950
201
6 Oct 10 1,400
201 Nov 11 1,200
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
6
201
6 Dec 12 1,000
201
7 Jan 13 1,759
201
7 Feb 14 1,750

A5.1= The Most recent – 1750*0.4= 700

Second Most Recent – 1759*0.3= 528
The Third Recent – 1000*0.2=200
The Fourth Most Recent = 1200*0.1 = 120
= 700+528+200+120
=1548 is forecast for the month of March 2017
perio
year month d actual demand
2,016 Jan 1 5,950
2,016 Feb 2 5,863
2,016 Mar 3 6,213
2,016 Apr 4 6,300
2,016 May 5 5,880
2,016 Jun 6 6,475
2,016 Jul 7 7,000
2,016 Aug 8 7,700
2,016 Sep 9 6,825
2016 Oct 10 4,900
2016 Nov 11 4,200
2016 Dec 12 3,500
2017 Jan 13 6,158
2017 Feb 14 6,125
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
A 5.2 =The Most recent – 6125/0.4= 15313
=Second Most Recent – 6158/0.3= 20527
=The Third Recent – 3500/0.2=17500
=The Fourth Most Recent = 4200/0.1 = 42000

actua
l
ye mon peri dema
ar th od nd
20
16 Jan 1 1,275
20
16 Feb 2 1,256
20
16 Mar 3 1,331
20
16 Apr 4 1,350
20
16 May 5 1,260
20
16 Jun 6 1,388
20
16 Jul 7 1,500
20
16 Aug 8 1,650
20
16 Sep 9 1,463
20
16 Oct 10 1,050
20
16 Nov 11 900
20
16 Dec 12 750
20 Jan 13 1,320
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
17
20
17 Feb 14 1,313

A 5.3 =The Most recent – 6125/0.4= 15313

=Second Most Recent – 6158/0.3= 20527
=The Third Recent – 3500/0.2=17500
=The Fourth Most Recent = 4200/0.1 = 42000

Q6 Calculate the demand for March 2017 using the exponential

smoothing method?
smoothing constant is 0.35
perio
year month d actual demand forecast
201
6 Aug 8 2,200 2,000
201
6 Sep 9 1,950 1,900
201
6 Oct 10 1,400 1,320
201
6 Nov 11 1,200 990
201
6 Dec 12 1,000 990
201
7 Jan 13 1,760 1,800
201
7 Feb 14 1,750 1,800
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting

Ft+1 = α Dt + (1 - α) Ft
A6.1
Where Ft+1 = forecast of demand for next period
Dt = Actual Value for current period
Ft = forecast for current period
Alpha = smoothing coefficient (between 0 and 1)
F (March 2017)= (0.35) (1,750) + (1 - 0.35) (1,800)
=612.5 + 1,170
= 1,783 Unit
The forecast for march 2017 is 1783.

perio
year month d actual demand forecast
201
6 Aug 8 5,500 5,000
201
6 Sep 9 4,875 4,750
201
6 Oct 10 3,500 3,300
201
6 Nov 11 3,000 2,475
201
6 Dec 12 2,500 2,475
201
7 Jan 13 4,400 4,500
201 Feb 14 4,375 4,500
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
7

Ft+1 = α Dt + (1 - α) Ft

Q6.2
F March = (0.35) * (4375) + (1 - 0.35) * (4500)
=1531.25 + 2925
=4456.25
The forecast for march 2017 is 4456.25.

perio
year month d actual demand forecast
201
6 Aug 8 6,600 6,000
201
6 Sep 9 5,850 5,700
201
6 Oct 10 4,200 3,960
201
6 Nov 11 3,600 2,970
201
6 Dec 12 3,000 2,970
201
7 Jan 13 5,280 5,400
201
7 Feb 14 5,250 5,400
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
Q6.3

Ft+1 = α Dt + (1 - α) Ft
F March = (0.35) (5250) + (1 - 0.35) (5400)
=1837.5 + 3510
=5347.5
The forecast for march 2017 is 5347.5

Q7.Assuming four three month periods in a year; what would the

2018 monthly forecast look like using seasonality factors?

year month period actual demand forecast

201
6 Jan 1 1,700
201
6 Feb 2 1,675
201
6 Mar 3 1,775
201
6 Apr 4 1,800
201
6 May 5 1,680
201
6 Jun 6 1,850
201 Jul 7 2,000
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting

6
201
6 Aug 8 2,200
201
6 Sep 9 1,950
201
6 Oct 10 1,400
201
6 Nov 11 1,200
201
6 Dec 12 1,000
201
7 Jan 13 1,759
201
7 Feb 14 1,750
201
7 Mar 15 1,850
201
7 Apr 16 1,775
201
7 May 17 1,750
201
7 Jun 18 1,900
201
7 Jul 19 2,100
201
7 Aug 20 2,300
201 Sep 21 2,000
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting

7
201
7 Oct 22 1,500
201
7 Nov 23 1,000
201
7 Dec 24 900
Ans 7.1

Year 1 Year 2

Fall 5150 5359

Winter 5330 5425
Spring 6150 6400
Summer 3600 3400

Total 20230 20584

1.Demand for each season

Actual Demand y1(2016) = 20230/4=5058
Actual demand y2 (2017) = 20584/4=5146

Step 2:
Year 1 Year 2 Year1 & Year 2 (÷2)
Fall 5150÷5058 =1.01 5359÷5146= 1.04 1.02
Winter 5330÷5058=1.05 5425÷5146=1.05 1.05
Spring 6150÷5058=1.21 6400÷5146=1.24 1.22
Summer 3600÷5058= 0.71 3400÷5146=0.66 0.68
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
7.2
year month period actual demand forecast
2016 Jan 1 6,800
2016 Feb 2 6,700
2016 Mar 3 7,100
2016 Apr 4 7,200
2016 May 5 6,720
2016 Jun 6 7,400
2016 Jul 7 8,000
2016 Aug 8 8,800
2016 Sep 9 7,800
2016 Oct 10 5,600
2016 Nov 11 4,800
2016 Dec 12 4,000
2017 Jan 13 7,038
2017 Feb 14 7,000
2017 Mar 15 7,400
2017 Apr 16 7,100
2017 May 17 7,000
2017 Jun 18 7,600
2017 Jul 19 8,400
2017 Aug 20 9,200
2017 Sep 21 8,000
2017 Oct 22 6,000
2017 Nov 23 4,000
2017 Dec 24 3,600
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
Ans 7.2

Year 1 Year 2

Fall 20600 21438

Winter 21320 21700
Spring 24600 25600
Summer 14400 13600

Total 80920 82338

1.Demand for each season

Actual Demand y1(2016) = 80920/4=20230
Actual demand y2 (2017) = 82338/4=20584.5

Step 2:
Year 1 Year 2 Year1 & Year 2 (÷2)
Fall 20600÷20230 =1.018 21438÷20584.5= 1.04 1.041
Winter 21320÷20230=1.053 21700÷20584.5=1.05 1.05
Spring 24600÷20230=1.21 25600÷20584.5=1.24 1.24
Summer 14400÷20230= 0.71 13600÷20584.5=0.66 0.66
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
perio
year month d actual demand forecast
2016 Jan 1 1,360
2016 Feb 2 1,340
2016 Mar 3 1,420
2,016 Apr 4 1,440
2,016 May 5 1,344
2,016 Jun 6 1,480
2,016 Jul 7 1,600
2,016 Aug 8 1,760
2,016 Sep 9 1,560
2,016 Oct 10 1,120
2,016 Nov 11 960
2,016 Dec 12 800
2,017 Jan 13 1,408
2,017 Feb 14 1,400
2,017 Mar 15 1,480
2,017 Apr 16 1,420
2,017 May 17 1,400
2,017 Jun 18 1,520
2,017 Jul 19 1,680
2,017 Aug 20 1,840
2,017 Sep 21 1,600
2017 Oct 22 1,200
2017 Nov 23 800
2017 Dec 24 720
SALMAN MOHIDEEN
#10311990
Assignment 1: Forecasting
Ans 7.3

Year 1 Year 2

Fall 20600 21438

Winter 21320 21700
Spring 24600 25600
Summer 14400 13600

Total 80920 82338

1.Demand for each season

Actual Demand y1(2016) = 80920/4=20230
Actual demand y2 (2017) = 82338/4=20584.5

Step 2:
Year 1 Year 2 Year1 & Year 2 (÷2)
Fall 20600÷20230 =1.018 21438÷20584.5= 1.04 1.041
Winter 21320÷20230=1.053 21700÷20584.5=1.05 1.05
Spring 24600÷20230=1.21 25600÷20584.5=1.24 1.24
Summer 14400÷20230= 0.71 13600÷20584.5=0.66 0.66