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 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 (2018) 034018 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaac07

LETTER

How did the urban land in floodplains distribute and

OPEN ACCESS
expand in China from 1992–2015?
RECEIVED
4 September 2017
Shiqiang Du1 , Chunyang He2,3 , Qingxu Huang2 and Peijun Shi2
REVISED 1 Geography Department, Shanghai Normal University, 100 Guilinlu Road, Shanghai 200234, People’s Republic of China
24 January 2018 2 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing
ACCEPTED FOR PUBLICATION
100875, People’s Republic of China
31 January 2018 3 Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.
PUBLISHED
23 February 2018 E-mail: shiqiangdu@shnu.edu.cn, hcy@bnu.edu.cn, qxhuang@bnu.edu.cn and spj@bnu.edu.cn

Keywords: floodplain, urbanization, flood exposure, urban planning, China

Original content from
this work may be used Supplementary material for this article is available online
under the terms of the
Creative Commons
Attribution 3.0 licence.
Abstract
Any further distribution
of this work must Urban land in floodplains (ULF) is a vital component of flood exposure and its variations can cause
maintain attribution to
the author(s) and the
changes in flood risk. In the context of rapid urbanization, ULF is expanding rapidly in China and
title of the work, journal imperiling societal sustainability. However, a national-scale analysis of ULF patterns and dynamics
citation and DOI.
has yet to be conducted. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal changes in
China’s ULF at different spatial scales (the country, region, basin, and sub-basin scales) from
1992–2015. We found that ULF accounted for 44.41% of the total urban land in China in 2015, which
was 3.68 times greater than the proportion of floodplains relative to the total land area in China
(12.06%). From 1992–2015, the ULF area increased by 26.43 × 103 km2 , or 542.21%. Moreover, the
ULF area is expected to grow by 16.89 × 103 km2 (53.38%) between 2015 and 2050. ULF growth was
strongly associated with the flood occurrence in China, and continued growth will pose a
considerable challenge to urban sustainability, particularly in basins with poor flood defenses. Greater
attention should thus be paid to ULF dynamics in China.

1. Introduction rapid ULF expansion are likely interrelated (Yu 2012,

Floodplains are prone to riverine floods due to their
low-lying topography and location adjoining a river,
stream, lake, or other inland water bodies (White
1945). Improper floodplain development increases
flood exposure and aggravates flood risk (White 1945,
Mileti 1999). Urban land in floodplains (ULF) is a vital
component of flood exposure, and changes in this com-
ponent can lead to variations in flood risk (de Moel
et al 2011, Jongman et al 2012, Güneralp et al 2015, Di
Baldassarre et al 2013).
China is amongst the most flood-prone and rapidly
urbanizing countries worldwide. During 1992–2015,
China experienced 157 riverine floods, which inflicted
21,660 deaths, affected 1.48 billion victims, and caused
an economic damage of 182.18 billion dollars (Guha-
Sapir et al 2016). In the same period, urban land
expanded by nearly five times (Xu et al 2016). Pre-
vious studies argued that the exacerbated floods and
Cheng and Li 2015).
Many studies have examined China’s ULF at
regional scales. For example, using Landsat TM/ETM
images, Yuan and Jiang (2005) found that the ULF in
the Jingzhou flood retention area of the Yangtze River
Basin increased by 111% during 1986–2002. Also on the
basis of Landsat TM/ETM images, Xu (2012) revealed
that ULF encroached upon 4.76% of water bodies and
34.87% of paddy fields in the Yangtze River Delta dur-
ing 1991–2006. Based on multiyear topography data,
Zhou et al (2011) found that ULF occupied 17% (or
a total length of 355.4 km) of the rivers in Shenzhen
during 1980–2005.
Because of a lack of sufficient data, a national-scale
analysis of the ULF patterns and dynamics remains
to be elucidated. First, extracting large-scale and
long-term datasets of urban land is a costly and time-
consuming endeavor (Liu et al 2012). Previous studies
mostly examined China’s ULF at regional scales using

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd

Environ. Res. Lett. 13 (2018) 034018

Figure 1. The urban lands of 1992 and 2015 (a) and flood extents of different return periods (b). Basin abbreviations: HLJ (Heilongjiang
River), LH (Liaohe River), IM (Inner Mongolia Rivers), XJ (Xinjiang Rivers), HH (Haihe), LYL (Lower Yellow River), MYL (Middle
Yellow River), UYL (Upper Yellow River), SYL (Source of Yellow River), TB (Tibetan Rivers), SDC (Shandong Coastal Rivers), HHR
(Huaihe River), LYZ (Lower Yangtze River), MYZ (Middle Yangtze River), UYZ (Upper Yangtze River), SYZ (Source of Yangtze
River), SW (Southwest Rivers), SEC (Southeast Coastal Rivers), LP (Lower Pearl River), UP (Upper Pearl River), and SC (South
Coastal Rivers).

Landsat TM/ETM images (Yuan and Jiang 2005, Xu
2012). Second, a national floodplain map is still lack-
ing because flood inundation modeling has not been
conducted at a national scale (Yin et al 2015). In pre-
vious studies, floodplains were approximated by flood
retention areas (Yuan and Jiang 2005) or water bodies
(Xu 2012, Zhou et al 2011).
Recent progress in remote sensing techniques and
flood inundation modeling has provided the neces-
sary data for a national-scale ULF analysis. First, based
on the nighttime light data of the DMSP-OLS and
the NPP-VIIRS, researchers have derived urban lands
in China over the past two decades (Liu et al 2012,
Xu et al 2016). Second, flood hazard maps are now
a practical reality for large scales (Trigg et al 2016,
Rudari et al 2015) due to improvements in numer-
ical algorithms, global datasets, computing capacity,
and modeling frameworks. The resulting flood maps
have played essential roles in consistently quantifying
floodplains and reliably assessing flood risk (UNISDR
2015).
Against this background, our objective was to sys-
tematically assess the patterns and dynamics of ULF in
China during 1992–2015. We first investigated the spa-
tiotemporal changes in ULF at four scales ranging from
country, region, basin, to sub-basin. We then discussed
the reliability, consequences, causes, and implications
of the ULF patterns and dynamics. Such an investiga-
tion is essential for a comprehensive understanding of
the flood risk dynamics in China.
2. Method
2.1. Study area and data
Four scales (the sub-basin, basin, region, and coun-
try scales) were used to analyze the ULF in China
(figure 1(a)). The study area contained 529 sub-basins
and 21 basins. The delineations of these sub-basins and
basins were first derived from the Food and Agricul-
ture Organization (FAO) and then rectified based on
datasets of rivers and elevation, which were obtained
from the National Geomatics Center of China. The 21
basins were aggregated into four regions according to
the climate zonation of China (Zheng et al 2010), i.e.
southwest, northwest, northeast, and southeast China.
Two major datasets were employed to derive the
floodplain and ULF areas. First, a flood depth dataset
from the CIMA Foundation (Rudari et al 2015) was
used to define the extent of floodplains. This dataset was
produced based on hydrological and hydraulic models
at a resolution of 1 km, which were validated against
historical floods. The dataset contains floods with dif-
ferent return periods, e.g. 100 year and 1000 year return
periods (figure 1(b)).
Second, we employed the urban expansion dataset
of China for 1992–2015 (Liu et al 2012, Xu et al 2016)
to derive the ULF and its changes over time. This
dataset was produced based on the DMSP-OLS and
NPP-VIIRS nighttime light, vegetation index, and land
surface temperature data (figure 1(a)). This dataset
has a resolution of 1 km. Based on a comparison
to the urban land estimates extracted from Land-
sat TM/ETM+ images, this dataset reliably represents
urban expansion in China from 1992–2015, with an
average overall accuracy of 92.62%.
2.2. Defining floodplain and ULF extents
We defined the floodplain as the maximum extent
of the 100 year return period flood (UNISDR 2015,
Rudari et al 2015). This definition is consistent with
the flood risk assessment by Shi et al (2015) and the
flood exposure analysis by Jongman et al (2012). Then,

2
Environ. Res. Lett. 13 (2018) 034018
Table 1. The floodplain, ULF, and urban land outside floodplains (ULOF) areas (103 km2 ) in China and in the climate regions in 2015.
Floodplain and its ratio to the total land area
China 1140.35 (12.06%)
Southeast 413.42 (18.27%)
Northeast 340.20 (15.40%)
Northwest 242.00 (10.50%)
Southwest 144.74 (5.42%)
we extracted the ULF. To validate the reliability of the
floodplain definition, we further compared the defined
ULF and the ULF of the 1000 year return period flood-
plain.
2.3. Analyzing the ULF pattern and dynamics
We used equation (1) to calculate the ULF ratio
(ULFR), which is defined as the ULF divided by the
floodplain area (FP) for zone i (supplementary figure S1
available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/13/034018/mmedia).
𝑈 𝐿𝐹 (𝑖)
𝑈 𝐿𝐹 𝑅(𝑖) = × 100%.
𝐹 𝑃 (𝑖)
In addition, the change rate (CR) and average
annual change rate (AACR) were calculated for ULF
during 1992–2015 following equations (2) and (3).
𝑥𝑡2 − 𝑥𝑡1
𝐶𝑅 = × 100%
𝑥𝑡1
√ basins in eastern China, such as the middle Yangtze
𝑥𝑡2
𝐴𝐴𝐶𝑅 = (𝑡2−𝑡1)
× 100% − 100%
𝑥𝑡1
where 𝑥𝑡1 and 𝑥𝑡2 refer to the area of ULF in years t1
and t2, respectively.
3. Results
3.1. Features of floodplains in China
The total area of floodplains in China is
1140.35 × 103 km2 , accounting for 12.06% of China’s
total land area. A large proportion of the floodplains
(36.25%, or 413.42 × 103 km2 ) is located in south-
east China. Northeast, northwest, and southwest China
contain 29.83%, 21.22%, and 12.69% of the flood-
plains, respectively (figure 1(b)).
3.2. The ULF pattern in 2015
In 2015, ULF encompassed a total area of
31.32 × 103 km2 . It accounted for 44.41% of the total
urban land in China, which was 3.68 times greater than
the ratio of floodplains to total land in China. The ULFR
was 2.74% while urban land ratio outside floodplains
was only 0.48% (table 1). Urban land in China was thus
disproportionally skewed toward ULF.
An overwhelming majority of China’s ULF
(96.76%) was located in eastern China—southeast and
northeast China contained 73.43% (23.00 × 103 km2 )
and 23.33% (7.31 × 103 km2 ) of the national total ULF,
respectively. Southeast China featured the largest ULFR
3
ULF and ULFR ULOF and its ratio to the total area outside floodplains
31.32 (2.74%) 39.66 (0.48)
23.00 (5.56%) 19.07 (1.03)
7.31 (2.14%) 16.57 (0.89)
0.44 (0.18%) 2.30 (0.11)
0.58 (0.39%) 1.72 (0.07)
(5.56%), which was twice as large as the national aver-
age (2.74%). Additionally, northeast China featured an
ULFR of 2.15%. In contrast, only a small proportion
of China’s ULF (3.24%) was located in western China.
The ULF in northwest and southwest China had an area
of 0.44 × 103 km2 and 0.58 × 103 km2 , respectively, and
the ULFRs in these two regions were quite low (0.44%
and 0.58%, respectively).
At the basin and sub-basin scales, the ULF was
clustered in the eastern coastal areas (figure 2). A large
portion of China’s ULF (68.93%) was concentrated
(1) in the eight coastal basins (figure 2), which together
account for only 13.27% of China’s total land area.
In these coastal basins, 17 sub-basins of the Beijing-
Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River
Delta—China’s three primary urban agglomerations,
had a combined ULF of 14.24 × 103 km2 . These sub-
basins accounted for 45.48% of China’s total ULF area
(2)
but only 1.79% of China’s total land area. In addition to
the coastal basins, the ULF was also clustered in other
(3) River (MYZ) basin.
3.3. The changes in ULF during 1992–2015
The ULF increased from 4.88 × 103 km2 in 1992 to
31.32 × 103 km2 in 2015, corresponding to a change
rate of 542.21%. The average annual change rate
(AACR) was 8.42%, which was higher than the AACR
of urban land outside floodplains (8.22%) and 5.33
times greater than the AACR of global urban land
(1.58%) during 1990–2014 (Martino et al 2016).
Most of the growth in China’s ULF (96.37%)
occurred in eastern China. Southeast and north-
east China experienced an increase in ULF of
19.47 × 103 km2 and 6.01 × 103 km2 , respectively, with
corresponding AACRs of 8.50% and 7.80% (table 2). In
contrast, western China had a combined ULF increase
of 0.95 × 103 km2 , accounting for only 3.63% of the
national total increase. However, the combined AACR
for ULF in western China was 13.42%, which was much
higher than the national average (8.42%). Therefore,
this change likely aggravated the flood risk in western
China because the flood defense systems are relatively
poor in the region (Yu 2012, Cheng and Li 2015).
At the basin and sub-basin scales, a large portion of
China’s ULF growth was clustered in the eight coastal
basins (figure 3). The ULF growth in these eight coastal
basins reached 18.04 × 103 km2 , or 68.22% of China’s
total increase in ULF. The AACR of ULF was 8.17% in
these basins but averaged 9.05% in other basins. The
coastal basins thus exhibited the greatest increases in
Environ. Res. Lett. 13 (2018) 034018

Figure 2. The ULF ratio to floodplains (ULFR) in 2015. Note: refer to figure 1 for the basin abbreviations.

Table 2. Temporal changes in ULF during 1992–2015 for China and its climate regions (103 km2 ).

1992−1995 1995−2000 2000−2005 2005−2010 2010−2015 1992−2015

China 3.19 (18.26) 3.94 (8.28) 8.25 (11.03) 4.03 (3.70) 7.02 (5.21) 26.44 (8.42)
Southeast 2.37 (18.70) 2.93 (8.41) 6.44 (11.58) 2.75 (3.37) 4.99 (5.01) 19.47 (8.50)
Northeast 0.78 (17.06) 0.88 (7.32) 1.63 (9.16) 1.13 (4.48) 1.59 (5.01) 6.01 (7.80)
Northwest 0.01 (15.98) 0.06 (21.44) 0.07 (10.67) 0.05 (5.36) 0.22 (14.61) 0.41 (13.27)
Southwest 0.02 (19.57) 0.06 (16.76) 0.12 (15.27) 0.11 (8.01) 0.23 (10.82) 0.54 (13.54)
Note: the numbers in the brackets are the average annual change rates (%).

Figure 3. Average annual change rates of ULF during 1992–2015. Note: refer to figure 1 for the basin abbreviations.

ULF in China, whereas inland basins exhibited faster 2005–2010 in China (table 2), in the four climate
growth rates. regions, and in the 21 basins (table 2 and supplementary
Both the absolute increase and the AACR of figure S2). This phenomenon was more significant for
ULF were much larger during 2010–2015 than during basins in western China, which experienced 32.82%

4
Environ. Res. Lett. 13 (2018) 034018
Figure 4. The changes in ULF at different flood depths during 1992–2015.
to 80.00% of their entire ULF growth (from 1992–
2015) during 2010–2015. These growth rates were
considerably higher than those during the period of
2005–2010. The results indicate that the increase in
ULF has accelerated during the past few years, partic-
ularly for the basins in western China (supplementary
text).
4. Discussion
4.1 The reliability of the floodplain data in China
Correlation analyses indicate that the 100 year return
period flood used in this study is reliable for defin-
ing floodplain and ULF. First, the defined floodplain
and the 1000 year return period flood floodplain were
significantly correlated across sub-basins (p < 0.001,
R = 0.99). Second, the defined ULF was signifi-
cantly correlated with the ULF associated with the
1000 year return period floodplain at the sub-basin
scale (p < 0.001, R = 0.99). Additionally, the temporal
trends of ULF were similar among different flood
depths (figure 4). All of the Pearson correlation coeffi-
cients among the time series of ULF at different flood
depths were greater than 0.99 and significant at the
level of 0.001 (supplementary table S1). The defined
ULF (ULF with a flood depth greater than 0.00 m)
was also significantly correlated with the ULF values at
different flood depths (p < 0.001, R > 0.83).
However, we did not consider the dynamics of the
floodplain itself in the context of climate change for
two reasons. First, our study period is relatively short
(23 years, from 1992–2015) and the effects of climate
change on floodplain dynamics may not be significant
in this period. Second, a national-scale dataset of flood-
plain dynamics in the context of climate change is not
available. Nevertheless, the ULF results in this study
have much wider implications—they present not only
the ULF in the 100 year return period floodplain but
also reflect the ULF characteristics in different flood
depths of the 100 year return period as well as in the
1000 year return period floodplain.
5
4.2. Changes in ULF are significantly related to the
flood occurrence in China
To assess the possible influence of ULF changes on the
flood occurrence, we employed two flood datasets: his-
torical flood extent data from the Dartmouth Flood
Observatory (DFO) (Brakenridge 2017) and annual
flood frequency data from the EM-DAT (Guha-Sapir
et al 2016), both of which span from 1992 to 2015.
From the DFO flood extents, we derived the cumula-
tive flood area (CFA) during 1992–2015 for sub-basins,
which revealed the spatial variations in flood areas in
the study period.
Sub-basins with larger ULF increases were found to
have higher CFAs. At the national scale, the changes in
ULF were significantly correlated with the CFAs across
sub-basins (R = 0.22, p < 0.01). In the four climate
regions, the correlations were all positive between the
changes in ULF and the CFAs across sub-basins. At the
basin scale, the correlation was found to be positive in
19 of the 21 basins and significantly positive in 11 of
the basins (p < 0.1) (figure 5). The changes in ULF are
thus highly associated with CFAs.
The national ULF time series and the EM-DAT
flood frequency dataset during 1992–2015 were also
significantly correlated (P < 0.01, R = 0.62), implying
that the increase in flood frequency was attributable to
the increase in ULF. Following the relative contribution
analysis of Johnson (2000), the results further revealed
that changes in ULF may have driven 92.62% of the
variation in the flood frequency; thus, the ULF contri-
bution was dramatically higher than the contribution of
annual storm rainfall (6.38%). Consequently, the ULF
expansion was one of the major causes of the increases
in flood frequencies.
Our findings are also consistent with those of pre-
vious studies. For instance, previous studies found
that even with strengthened flood protection, improper
ULF expansion was responsible for the increasing flood
frequencies and losses in the United States (White 1945,
Mileti 1999). Several studies have also confirmed the
roles of ULF growth in increasing flood losses (Ceola
et al 2014, de Moel et al 2011).
Environ. Res. Lett. 13 (2018) 034018
Figure 5. The correlation coefficients (a) and their significance levels (b) between sub-basin scale CFAs and changes in ULF during
1992–2015. Note: refer to figure 1 for the basin abbreviations.
Figure 6. Relationship between ULF and the urban population during 1992–2015 (a) and future trends of ULF and ULF ratio to
floodplains (ULFR) in China through 2050 (b).
4.3. Policy implications
China is urbanizing at an unprecedented rate, which is
typically seen as an opportunity for realizing a national
dream of socioeconomic rejuvenation (Bai et al
2014). However, such a dream is also impeded by
many challenges, among which an aggravated flood
risk stands out (Cheng and Li 2015, Yu 2012). At the
national scale, we revealed that ULF accounted for a
disproportional ratio (44.41%) of China’s total urban
lands in 2015 and grew by more than five times dur-
ing 1992–2015. The disproportional distribution and
the rapid increase of ULF may imperil the capacity to
cope with flood damage (de Moel et al 2011). At the
regional scale, most of the ULF (96.76% of China’s
total ULF) was clustered in eastern China in 2015.
Meanwhile, the ULF in eastern China is home to a
population of more than 300 million people (about
a quarter of China’s total population) (Martino et al
2016). The concentration of ULF and population in this
flood-prone region may augment the risk, especially in
light of land subsidence and sea level rise in coastal cities
(Yu et al 2016). Moreover, the ULF growth in western
China has accelerated, although the amount of ULF
is small in this region. The accelerating ULF increase
6
should be given significant attention because the flood
defense systems in western China are relatively poor
(Cheng and Li 2015).
China’s ULF is likely to continue increasing rapidly
through 2050. The ULF was linearly related to the
urban population during 1992–2015 (p < 0.001,
R = 0.99, figure 6(a)), when the urban population
increased from 338 million to 779 million (or pro-
portionally from 27.46% to 55.60% of the total
population). According to the National New-type
Urbanization Plan (2014–2020) published by the cen-
tral government, China’s urban population fraction is
expected to rise by 1% a year and reach 60% by 2020
(Bai et al 2014). By 2050, China’s urban population is
expected to reach more than 1 billion people (United
Nations 2014). If the linear relationship between ULF
and the urban population holds, the ULF could increase
to 48.20 × 103 km2 by 2050, corresponding to a growth
rate of 53.58% during 2015–2050 (figure 6(b)).
ULF expansion is typically a result of multiple
causes. First, ULF can facilitate the water supply,
transportation, and military defense because of the
proximity to water bodies (Ceola et al 2014, Kummu
et al 2011, Gu 1997). Second, even after disastrous
Environ. Res. Lett. 13 (2018) 034018

Table 3. Major policies related to ULF in China from the 1980s to 2010s.

Year Policy/decree Main content Administrations

1989 Urban Planning Law of China Flood prevention measures should be implemented in areas that are MHURD
prone to catastrophic floods.
1998 China’s National Disaster Hydraulic projects should be constructed for comprehensive disaster MHURD, MWR, MCA
Reduction Plan (1998−2010) reduction; core cities should construct flood protection works and
implement comprehensive urban disaster reduction plans.
2007 China’s National Plan of Disaster reduction should be considered in land use, urban planning, and MHURD, MWR, MCA
Integrated Disaster Reduction post-disaster reconstruction plans; a national integrated disaster risk map
(2006−2010) should be created.
2007 Urban and Rural Planning Disaster prevention and reduction should be mandated in the MHURD
Law of China comprehensive plans of cities and towns.
2011 China’s National Plan of Hydraulic projects should be constructed and reinforced for flood MHURD, MWR, MCA
Integrated Disaster Prevention prevention, particularly for middle- and small-sized rivers; disaster
and Reduction (2011−2015) prevention and reduction should be integrated with regional development
plans; integrated risk maps of different scales should be produced.

floods, ULF is usually restored in its original location
(Ma et al 2016, Kocornik-Mina et al 2015). Third, ULF
expansion can be accelerated by the ‘levee effect’—a
false sense of development safety associated with engi-
neering protection (Cheng and Li 2015, Kates et al
2006).
The unprecedentedly rapid ULF expansion in
China also reflects policy shortcomings in urban
planning and risk management (table 3). First, the
urban (and rural) planning laws and disaster reduction
plans have only limited power to control the growth
of ULF because they cannot forbid ULF expansion
in specific regions (Yu 2012). Second, the enforce-
ment of relevant policies can be hampered by the
fragmented and overlapping structure of flood risk
governance in China. Currently, ULF expansion is rel-
evant to several agencies: the Ministry of Housing and
Urban-Rural Development (MHURD), the Ministry
of Water Resources (MWR) and the Ministry of Civil
Affairs (MCA). These three agencies are responsible for
urban planning, flood protection investment, and post-
disaster relief, respectively. In this multi-jurisdiction
setting, a new administrative structure is needed to
coordinate urban planning, risk management, ULF
expansion, and floodplain sustainability (Cheng and Li
2015). Finally, a reliable national-scale flood map is cur-
rently unavailable (Yin et al 2015), severely hampering
the control of ULF expansion.
To control the rapid increase in ULF, China
should optimize the governance system and effec-
tively strengthen relevant policies. We recommend
that policies related to urban planning and flood risk
management impose stringent restrictions on ULF
development and specify the responsibilities of local
agencies and governments in the implementation of
these policies. Furthermore, flood maps at different
scales should be developed to ensure location-based
risk reductions and ULF control. ULF control should
be integrated it into the United Nation Sustainable
Development Goals (Abel et al 2016). We also believe
that financial instruments, such as flood insurance,
could play important roles in controlling rapid ULF
expansion (Brody and Highfield 2013).
4.4. Future perspectives
This study has several limitations, which need further
analyses. First, the flood map can be further improved
by incorporating flood defense data into analyses
and reinforcing flood models (Rudari et al 2015,
Ward et al 2017). Second, the influences of both
climate change and urban expansion on ULF can
be considered in future studies (Ward et al 2017).
Third, the impacts of ULF expansion on other land
use/cover types (e.g. wetlands, farmlands, and water-
bodies) can be included for a comprehensive analysis
of ULF dynamics and landscape sustainability (Wu
2013). Fourth, the ULF expansion and related land
use/cover changes may also drive regional climate
change (Cao et al 2016), which needs further inves-
tigation. Finally, based on the ULF analysis, a flood risk
assessment can be implemented by integrating asset
density and vulnerability metrics into ULF estimates
(Jongman et al 2012, Jurgilevich et al 2017).
5. Conclusion
ULF represents a large proportion of China’s urban
land. In 2015, ULF occupied an area of 31.32 × 103 km2 ,
accounting for 44.41% of China’s total urban land,
while floodplains accounted for only a relatively small
proportion (12.06%) of China’s total land area. In other
words, the ratio of ULF to urban land was 3.68 times
greater than the ratio of floodplains to total land in
China in 2015. Moreover, the spatial distribution of
ULF in China is highly uneven. The majority of ULF
(68.93% of total ULF) is concentrated in eight coastal
basins, which account for only 13.27% of China’s total
land area.
ULF grew rapidly during 1992–2015. During
these 23 years, ULF increased by 26.43 × 103 km2 , or
542.21%, with an average annual growth rate of 8.42%.
This growth rate is 5.33 times the average annual growth
rate of global urban land (1.58%). The majority of the
ULF increase (96.37%) was concentrated in eastern
China, but the ULF expanded much more rapidly in
the west. Moreover, an accelerated increase in ULF

7
Environ. Res. Lett. 13 (2018) 034018
occurred across China during the last few years of the
study period, particularly in the western basins.
The increases in ULF were strongly associated with
changes in the flood occurrence in China. Sub-basins
with larger increases in ULF were consistently found to
have larger CFAs at the national, regional, and basin
scales. In addition, the variations in flood frequency
were overwhelmingly controlled by the changes in ULF
(92.62%) and relatively little by the changes in annual
rainfall (6.38%). Following the current trend, the ULF
area will grow by 16.89 × 103 km2 between 2015 and
2050 at a growth rate of 53.38%. This growth will
pose a challenge to flood risk management in China,
particularly in basins with poor flood defenses. China
should therefore optimize the governance system and
strengthen relevant policies to effectively control the
rapid growth of ULF.
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the National Natural
Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41621061,
41501092, and 41401603) and the 111 Project ‘Hazard
and Risk Science Base at Beijing Normal University’
under Grant No. B08008 (Ministry of Education and
State Administration of Foreign Expert Affairs, PRC).
We are grateful to Dr. Roberto Rudari from the CIMA
Foundation for providing the flood maps. We are also
grateful to the anonymous reviewers and editors for
their valuable comments and suggestions.
ORCID iDs
Shiqiang Du https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9787-
186X
Chuyang He https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8440-5536
Qingxu Huang https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4902-
716X
Peijun Shi https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2968-7331
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