DEPARTMENT OF CI VI L ENGI N EERI N G

PRECIPITATION
Second Semester | 2023-2024 | aristontalosig@gmail.com
 Today's
Outline
Topic Highlights
Presentation of Rainfall Data
Frequency of Point Rainfall
Plotting Position
 MASS CURVE
It is a plot of the
accumulated precipitation
against time, plotted in
chronological order.

RAINFALL PLOT
 HYETOGRAPH
It is a plot of the intensity of
rainfall against the time
interval. The hyetograph is
derived from the mass curve
and is usually represented as
a bar chart. The area under a
hyetograph represents the
total precipitation received
in the period.

RAINFALL PLOT
The mass curve of rainfall in a storm of total duration 270 minutes is given below. Draw the
hyetograph of the storm at 30-minute time step.
Cumulative Rainfall Rainfall
Time
Rainfall Increment Intensity
(min)
(mm) (mm) (mm/hr)
0 0 0 0
30 6 6 12
60 18 12 24
90 21 3 6
120 36 15 30
150 43 7 14
180 49 6 12
210 52 3 6
240 53 1 2
270 54 1 2
 DEPTH-AREA-
DURATION CURVE
It describes the maximum
amount of rainfall of various
durations occurring
over various sizes of areas.

RAINFALL PLOT
 In many hydraulic engineering
applications such as those concerned
with floods, the probability of
occurrence of a particular extreme
rainfall will be of importance.

Frequency
The probability of occurrence of an
event of a random variable whose
magnitude is equal to or in excess of a

of Point specified magnitude 𝑿 is denoted by 𝒑.

The recurrence interval or return

Rainfall period is defined as the average

interval between the occurrence of a
rainfall of magnitude equal to or
how frequent does greater than 𝑿.
it happen?
𝟏
𝑻=
𝒑
 The binomial distribution can be used
to find the probability of occurrence 𝑷
of the event 𝒓 times in 𝒏 successive
years.

𝒏! 𝒓 𝒏−𝒓
Frequency
𝑷= 𝒑 𝒒
𝒓! 𝒏 − 𝒓 !

of Point
where 𝒑 = probability of the event
occurring, 𝒒 = 𝟏 − 𝒑 or the probability
of event not occurring.

Rainfall
how frequent does
it happen?
Analysis of data on maximum one-day rainfall depth at the Cagayan River Basin indicated that
a depth of 250 mm had a return period of 25 years. Determine the probability of a one-day
rainfall depth equal to or greater than 250 mm (a) occurring once in 30 successive years, (b)
occurring thrice in 30 successive years, and (c) not occurring at all in 30 successive years.
1 1 1
𝑇= 𝑝= = = 0.04 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 1 − 0.04 = 0.96
𝑝 𝑇 25

(a) 𝑟 = 1, 𝑛 = 30
𝑛! 𝑟 𝑛−𝑟
30!
𝑃= 𝑝 𝑞 = (0.04)1 (0.96)30−1 𝑷 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟔𝟕𝟑
𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 ! 1! 30 − 1 !

(b) 𝑟 = 3, 𝑛 = 30
𝑛! 𝑟 𝑛−𝑟
30!
𝑃= 𝑝 𝑞 = (0.04)3 (0.96)30−3 𝑷 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟖𝟔𝟑
𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 ! 3! 30 − 3 !
(c) 𝑟 = 0, 𝑛 = 30
𝑛! 𝑟 𝑛−𝑟
30!
𝑃= 𝑝 𝑞 = (0.04)0 (0.96)30−0 𝑷 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟗𝟑𝟗
𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 ! 0! 30 − 0 !
Analysis of data on maximum one-day rainfall depth at the Cagayan River Basin indicated that
a depth of 250 mm had a return period of 25 years. Determine the probability of a one-day
rainfall depth equal to or greater than 250 mm (d) occurring at least once in 30 successive
years, and (e) at least twice in 30 successive years.

(d) 𝑟 = 0, 𝑛 = 30
𝑛! 𝑟 𝑛−𝑟
30!
𝑃= 𝑝 𝑞 = (0.04)0 (0.96)30−0 = 0.2939
𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 ! 0! 30 − 0 !
𝑃 = 1 − 0.2939 𝑷 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟎𝟔𝟏
(e) 𝑟 = 0,1; 𝑛 = 30
𝑛! 𝑟 𝑛−𝑟
30!
𝑃= 𝑝 𝑞 = (0.04)1 (0.96)30−1 = 0.3673
𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 ! 1! 30 − 1 !
𝑃 = 1 − 0.2939 − 0.3673 𝑷 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟑𝟖𝟖
 The purpose of the frequency
analysis of an annual series is to
obtain a relation between the
magnitude of the event and its
probability of exceedance.

Plotting
Position
empirical methods
A graph is plotted between the
annual rainfall magnitude as the
ordinate (on arithmetic scale) and the
return period 𝑻 as the abscissa (on
logarithmic scale).
The record of annual rainfall at Station A covering a period of 22 years is given. (a) Estimate the
annual rainfall with return periods of 10 years and 50 years. (b) What would be the probability of
an annual rainfall of magnitude equal to or exceeding 100 cm occurring at Station A? (c) What
is the 75% dependable annual rainfall at station A? Use Weibull’s Formula.

Year Rainfall (cm) Year Rainfall (cm)

1960 130 1971 90
1961 84 1972 102
1962 76 1973 108
1963 89 1974 60
1964 112 1975 75
1965 96 1976 120
1966 80 1977 160
1967 125 1978 85
1968 143 1979 106
1969 89 1980 83
1970 78 1981 95
Year Rainfall (cm) 𝑚 𝑝 = 𝑚/(𝑁 + 1) 𝑇 = 1/𝑝
1977 160 1 0.0435 23.0000 (a) Estimate the annual rainfall with
1968 143 2 0.0870 11.5000 return periods of 10 years and 50 years.
1960 130 3 0.1304 7.6667
1967 125 4 0.1739 5.7500 Rainfall (cm) 𝑇
1976 120 5 0.2174 4.6000 143 11.5000
1964 112 6 0.2609 3.8333 𝑷 10
1973 108 7 0.3043 3.2857 130 7.6667
1979 106 8 0.3478 2.8750 log 11.5 − log 10 log 11.5 − log 7.6667
1972 102 9 0.3913 2.5556 =
143 − 𝑃 143 − 130
1965 96 10 0.4348 2.3000
1981 95 11 0.4783 2.0909 𝑷 = 𝟏𝟑𝟖. 𝟓𝟐 𝒄𝒎
1971 90 12 0.5217 1.9167
1969 89 13 0.5652
1963 89 14 0.6087 1.6429
1978 85 15 0.6522 1.5333
1961 84 16 0.6957 1.4375
1980 83 17 0.7391 1.3529
1966 80 18 0.7826 1.2778
1970 78 19 0.8261 1.2105
1962 76 20 0.8696 1.1500
1975 75 21 0.9130 1.0952
1974 60 22 0.9565 1.0455
𝑃 = 28.374 ln 10 + 73.625
𝑷 = 𝟏𝟑𝟖. 𝟗𝟓 𝒄𝒎

𝑃 = 28.374 ln 50 + 73.625
𝑷 = 𝟏𝟖𝟒. 𝟔𝟐 𝒄𝒎
Year Rainfall (cm) 𝑚 𝑝 = 𝑚/(𝑁 + 1) 𝑇 = 1/𝑝
1977 160 1 0.0435 23.0000 (b) What would be the probability of
1968 143 2 0.0870 11.5000 an annual rainfall of magnitude equal
1960 130 3 0.1304 7.6667 to or exceeding 100 cm occurring at
1967 125 4 0.1739 5.7500 Station A?
1976 120 5 0.2174 4.6000
1964 112 6 0.2609 3.8333 Rainfall (cm) 𝑇
1973 108 7 0.3043 3.2857 102 2.5556
1979 106 8 0.3478 2.8750 𝟏𝟎𝟎 𝑻
1972 102 9 0.3913 2.5556 96 2.3000
1965 96 10 0.4348 2.3000 log 2.5556 − log 𝑇 log 2.5556 − log 2.3
1981 95 11 0.4783 2.0909 =
102 − 100 102 − 96
1971 90 12 0.5217 1.9167
1969 89 13 0.5652 𝑇 = 2.4674
1963 89 14 0.6087 1.6429 𝑃 = 28.374 ln 𝑇 + 73.625
1978 85 15 0.6522 1.5333 100 = 28.374 ln 𝑇 + 73.625
1961 84 16 0.6957 1.4375
𝑇 = 2.5333
1980 83 17 0.7391 1.3529
1966 80 18 0.7826 1.2778 1
𝑝=
1970 78 19 0.8261 1.2105 𝑇
1962 76 20 0.8696 1.1500 1 1
1975 75 21 0.9130 1.0952 𝑝= = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟎𝟓𝟑 𝑝 = = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟗𝟒𝟕
2.4674 2.5333
1974 60 22 0.9565 1.0455
Year Rainfall (cm) 𝑚 𝑝 = 𝑚/(𝑁 + 1) 𝑇 = 1/𝑝
1977 160 1 0.0435 23.0000 (c) What is the 75% dependable
1968 143 2 0.0870 11.5000 annual rainfall at station A?
1960 130 3 0.1304 7.6667 1 1
1967 125 4 0.1739 5.7500 𝑇= = = 1.3333
𝑝 0.75
1976 120 5 0.2174 4.6000
1964 112 6 0.2609 3.8333 Rainfall (cm) 𝑇
1973 108 7 0.3043 3.2857 83 1.3529
1979 106 8 0.3478 2.8750 𝑷 𝟏. 𝟑𝟑𝟑𝟑
1972 102 9 0.3913 2.5556 80 1.2778
1965 96 10 0.4348 2.3000 log 1.3529 − log 1.3333 log 1.3529 − log 1.2778
1981 95 11 0.4783 2.0909 =
83 − 𝑃 83 − 80
1971 90 12 0.5217 1.9167
1969 89 13 0.5652 𝑷 = 𝟖𝟐. 𝟐𝟑 𝒄𝒎
1963 89 14 0.6087 1.6429
𝑃 = 28.374 ln 𝑇 + 73.625
1978 85 15 0.6522 1.5333
1961 84 16 0.6957 1.4375 𝑃 = 28.374 ln 1.3333 + 73.625
1980 83 17 0.7391 1.3529 𝑷 = 𝟖𝟏. 𝟕𝟗 𝒄𝒎
1966 80 18 0.7826 1.2778
1970 78 19 0.8261 1.2105
1962 76 20 0.8696 1.1500
1975 75 21 0.9130 1.0952
1974 60 22 0.9565 1.0455
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