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Topic Subject
CHAP 2: INTRODUCTION
SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
TO SCM
Essential Questions:
1. Components of demand
Average for the period: This is the sum of the demand values
divided by the sample size
A trend: This is a straight line fitted to the data. A trend exists
when there is a long-term increase or decrease in the data.
Sometimes we will refer to a trend as “changing direction”,
when it might go from an increasing trend to a decreasing trend
Sesonal element: This is period-by-period variations in demand.
Occurs when a time series is affected by seasonal factors such
as the time of the year or the day of the week. Seasonality is
always of a fixed and known frequency
Cyclical: These are more difficult to determine because the time
span may be unknown or the cause of the cycle may not be
considered. A cycle occurs when the data exhibit rises and falls
I. PART 1: DEMAND
that are not of a fixed frequency. These fluctuations are usually
FORCASTING
due to economic conditions, and are often related to the
“business cycle”
Random Variation: These are caused by chance events.
Autocorrelation: This denotes the persistence of occurrence. It
measures the linear relationship between lagged values of a
time series
2. The role of forecasting
Forecasting provides an estimate of future demand, the basis
for planning and sound business
Having accurate demand forecasts allows the purchasing
department to order the right amount of parts and
materials, the operations department to produce the right
quantity of products, and the logistics department to
deliver a correctly sized order
SCM
Logistics
Managing flow of items, Managing a network consisting
information, cash and ideas of suppliers, manufacturers,
distributors and customers
Global operations
Summary