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411 Chapter03 64
411 Chapter03 64
1. Introduction
2. Time value of money
3. Comparison methods – Part 1
4. Comparison methods – Part 2
5. Depreciation
6. Taxes
7. Retirement and replacement
8. Inflation & Sensitivity
9. Cost estimation
10. Analysis of Project cash flows
3. Comparison methods –
equivalent
Part I
value
{ Puni form .
cash flow / year
L f
§ Comparison methods
§ Present worth or net present value minion onytaiiniñw
§
§
Annual worth
Future worth g
§ Comparing worths when lives of alternatives
are unequal
At the end, you should be able to
§ evaluate a project(s) whether it/they should be
invested.
view.
rinrfwi noroioi wvsiuufolsini dwnumndmnnt.cn
§ rank alternatives based on an economic point of
>
n'onion 'iñvÑ→ñovYp
inn ,
.
No
Recognition of a problem
Specify criteria
Set of alternatives
w.nl wir É ,
inion moriññir n
,
Implement
A Unit
(e.g., Reactor)
W.visnutnhhnhrwimurro.FI
f.
,
A Unit
(e.g., Reactor)
Oil Alternative 1
Gas Alternative 2
Which one is economically best ? - darn
]
inuu cashflow diagram
i
0 1 2 .... j .... N
Oil Alternative 1
intrusion oaqvnrwioalriv-d.hn
rrwwñ project Droll
i
Gas 0 1 2 .... j .... N
Alternative 2
i
0 1 2 .... j .... N
Bio mass Alternative 3
Which investment alternatives or
projects do you prefer Plan I or Plan II?
Plan I Plan II
INWONT
5. Taxes are not applicable. iitaiñnnn
↳
itcoivdnwvnibnt ln zn ufokilntbnwu.ae
1. Independent alternatives –
Two (or more) projects are independent if the
expected costs and expected benefits of each of
the projects do not depend on whether or not the
other one is chosen.
e.g. To upgrade computer we could acquire
monitor, ram, cards or external disk drive.
Simplest relation between projects.
We consider each alternative one at a time and
decides (accept or reject) it on its own merits.
None, one or more than one project can be
selected.
Comparison methods (cont.)
o-uinhkivohiowiu.no/w an%1adonidwhI
If one project is accepted, all other projects can not
be accepted.
It is impossible or does not make sense to accept
more than one alternative.
e.g. To upgrade computer printer we could acquire
an ink-jet printer or a laser printer.
,
Comparison methods (cont.)
mnñonoiurioñwnoinir oiosfiod.nu
3. Financially mutually exclusive alternatives –
These are independence alternatives, but with
limited available fund. Ilium.no: in
e.g. we could acquire monitor, printer or external
disk drive, but the budget is limited. Then selected
independence alternatives are possible only when
the sum of the cost is less than the budget.
This types of alternations is important since we
need to decide if we could acquire only one
alternation or the combinations of alternations or
select to do nothing. which appears to be
economically preferred.
Comparison methods (cont.)
nil ninth iton in o oh , u 8 ,
hyun
Comparison methods (cont.)
Comparison methods – methods of evaluating
and comparing projects.
1) Ranking of alternatives by
iii.i
increasing/decreasing equivalent worth
measures. HUNS cashflow Iiñionnindooriu
miss if i. Present worth (Net present value)
ii. Annual worth (Annual cost) HUUM rino uniform
iñoonir
iii. Future worth
un 4 2) Ranking of alternatives by marginal
(incremental) analysis and other methods–
Next Chapter, e.g.
§ Internal rate of return (IRR)
§ Payback period
Comparison methods (cont.)
Criteria for evaluating and comparing
projects.
C B
Cost-Benefit analysis: Basically, an alternative
is acceptable if B – C ³ 0 or B/C ³ 1.
We select the alternative that yields the highest
equivalent worth of profit or the lowest cost
(when no benefit incurs). < o ñ v
'
o on n n
i n nn ,
,
j =0
é i (1 + i ) ù
-j
N
PW = å A j ê ú
j =1 êë ln(1 + i ) úû
PW = 0
i
0 1 2 .... j .... N
A0 = -P
Ø The alternatives having present worth greater than
zero can be undertaken (of course, we select the
alternative having highest NPV).
4 > I 7372 > 0 Present worth (cont.)
End of I Alternatives
flirt ftp.qq
go
4
'
iz
g. to ' ' ' '
I ' Ii #
f
.
. .
period -
I
1000
II III IV -
1000
-
1100
-
10001-4000 ( PIF , 20% , 10 ) = -
354
tooo , ,
20% , 101 =
291
-
11001-320 ( PIA ,
-
zoootsso IPIA , 201,101 =
305
In ? -0
Present worth (cont.)
cashflow lñnndriosionnroiwann )
Capitalized cost
Ø In case of perpetual investment, it may be necessary
to determine the present value of an infinite series
of cash flows. Known as “capitalized cost (CC)”.
Ø Capitalized cost is the amount of money that must be
invested today to yield a return of A at the end of
each and every period forever.
! ! !
'
!
f→
gapitalized
cost .
.
é ù ìï é (1 + i )N - 1ù üï
CC = Aêlim (P / A, i, N )ú = Aílim ê N úý
ë N ®¥ û ïî N ®¥ ë i (1 + i ) û ïþ
æ 1ö
CC = Aç ÷ PW
èiø
Present worth (cont.)
§ Ex 3-2: An investment of $30,000 now will require
additional costs of $600 at the end of each year and every
year, perpetually. What is the total present worth of costs.
Given i = 12%. ↳ N →
no
cc = A / it /
NPV = 30000 1- A /÷ ) =
soooo +600 ( %) =
$35000
I
present worth ( PW )
Thinkin
0 1 2 .... j .... N recovery
flow riot
P
CR In'ñÑñ, cash
J
CR = P( A / P, i, N ) - S ( A / F , i, N ) pinna
'
f) A) V07
CR = ( P - S )( A / P, i, N ) + iS 11mL fly
-
)
occurring at the end of each year over 6 years and a
residual (salvage) value of $3,000 at the end of 6 years.
Given i = 12%.
(a) Calculate the cost of capital recovery of this
equipment. Tahiti
(b) Calculate AW of this project riv capital cost
P =/ 2000
A = 6000
N = 6
s = 3000
i =
0.1
Present worth (cont.)
(a) cost of capital recovery of this equipment
72000 3000
1
1
CR =
PIA /P , 12% 6) -
s / Alf 12^1 6)
, ,
,
,
$2549
However,
annual worth
if time value of money
→ 2849
is 1- 6000
not used, we have
ñmw
120001 A IP , 12% 61
,
- 6000 1- 3000
AI , ,
=ÉÑooÑoz -
6000+5000-10-152317
-
-
8549
-
b
-
CR
§ Ex 3-4: Redo Ex 3-1 using annual worth.
Ex 3-1: All four mutually exclusive alternatives
with equal lives of 10 periods have cash flows
as shown in table below:
End of Alternatives
period I II III IV
0 -$1,000 -$1,000 -$1,100 -$2,000
1-10 0 300 320 550
10 4,000 0 0 0
Net cash $3,000 $2,000 $2,100 $3,500
flow
Rank all possible alternatives based on NPV.
Given i = 20%.
Annual worth (cont.)
FW (I) = -$2,192
FW (II) = $1,596
FW (III) = $1,496
FW (IV) = $1,893
u
PW 101
-
5--1813=6
Comparing worths when lives of alternatives are unequal
(cont.)
Let assume i = 0, pw _-
AW
}
= FWC " AW FW
pwlhli to PW
L > g
pwcs )
= 18 = Fwlsl
piano ✓ MYTH
niginooiy
}
AWCLI
=
¥ =
S
J > L
Awol
=
1,1=6
Something wrong !!
Comparing worths when lives of alternatives are unequal
oryronlvtahnhñv Cariou end of period )(cont.)
1. Repeatability – (identical replication)
This approach rests on two assumptions:
nin.r.vn 'i9iÑvou
initial ñoiqriiriiiu Repent →
iwdohiyñruvn
Comparing worths when lives of alternatives are unequal
(cont.)
Repeat the previous problem.
End of period Alternative L Alternative S
0 -$100 -$120
1 30 50
2 30 50
3 30 38
4 30
(assume i = 0%) Total cash flow $20 $18
$30 $30 $30
Alternative L
0 1 2 3 4 8 12
1st 2nd 3rd
-$100 -$100
$50 $50 $38 $50 $50 $38 $50 $50 $38 $50 $50 $38
Alternative S 0 1 2 3 s
st
1 2nd 3rd 4th
-$120 -$120 -$120 -$120
Planning horizon = 3´4 = 12 yr.
Comparing worths when lives of alternatives are unequal
(cont.)
Assume i = 0,
00/12=5
AWCL / 12g ) =
PWLL ) < Awls )
T.EE
Comparing worths when lives of alternatives are unequal
(cont.)
If we compare Alt. P @ 6 yr. vs. Alt. Q @ 12 yr. directly using NPV
NPV(P/6 yr.) =12000
-12,000 - 1,600 1- 30001
(P/A,12%,6) 12%161(P/F,12%,6)
PIF ,
+ 3,000
-17058
=
NPVIPlbyr.li -
-
= - $ 17,058
P / F 12% 12 )
12% 121 t 2000 (
NPV(Q/12 yr.)
NPV ( Q / 12 yr )
= -20,000
20000
=
-
- 900
900 ( (P/A,12%,12)
PIA -
+ 2,000, (P/F,12%,12)
,
,
,
= - $ 25,061
.
=
>
using AW 4149
= -
/ 121 = -20,000
AW(Q/12) (A/P,12%,12) - 900 + 2,000 (A/F,12%,12)
-
AWCQ zoooo
=
-
= -$ 4,046
= -4046
repeatability ,
,
=
-
pw (
(12 yr.) by doing Alt. P twice and Alt. Q once, we have
Q>p
-25061
PWIQ / my /
=
1 / A / P, 12% / 21=-4749
AWCP / thy = -25700 ,
qf
) =
www.nprojeutriittriynunuii rnhi
in
2. study period
Ø A study period is the a time period that is given for
the analysis. The company will set the study period
taking into account the time of required service.
I Ø This approach needs an additional estimation of
un
SN“salvage value” whenever the life of the alternatives
exceed that of the study period.
Ø It have only one assumption – a finite time interval
beyond which the economic consequences of the
ioJwuu÷iw
" competing alternatives are no longer significant.
'
ri >
Nhi ↳ iinui.im n' www.
salvage
•
biannual
..
ÑN
'
→ In'ivb9n
Alternative P Alternative Q
Initial cost $12,000 $20,000
Salvage value $3,000 $2,000
Annual $1,600 2nd
$900
operating costs
Service life 6 yr. ④
+ 12 yr.
ñosf So
Comparing worths when lives of alternatives are unequal
(cont.)
What are S4(P) and S10(Q) ? $5,000 '
uniforms
Alternative P $3,000
un 5 v71 03
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-$1,600/yr. -$1,600/yr.
-$12,0000• -$12,0000
1 st 2 nd
Alternative Q
$4,500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
✗
11 12
-$900/yr.
-$20,0000
Comparing worths when lives of alternatives are unequal
(cont.)
Study period of 10 yr.
pwlplloyl
PWIQKG
<
p CQ
nwnf Yen
,wÑ
30 N
a) 20
=
-
Nsw . Nilo any
g.
pw( 11
= 15000
-
lsooolplf ,
9T '
,
101 -
15000 ( PIF
, 94,201
( P / A / 9% )
-
(33001-4001-24001-300) ,
30 = -89800
② > ①
-25000
-
2500011° / F
,
9% 1st
pw 121
=
,
-89600
IP / A
,9% 301 =
-114501-6001-3021 1- soot ,
b)
'
l
①
y
:#
10
②
¥
-15000 133001-4001-24001-300 ) ( PIA ,q% so ) =
-
56073
pw (1)
=
-
(1300+4001-24001-300) / P / A ,9% ,
lol
121 zsooo
-
pw
-
=
+ 5000 We
/ Plfhave same results
, 94,107
-58989now. =
① > ②
Comparing worths when lives of alternatives are unequal
(cont.)
cc $16,666,666.67
=
=
PW =
25,000,000 1-16,666,666.69 =
41,666,666.67
CC = ?
Tutorial
§ T 3-2*: Which of the following alternatives is superior over
30-year period if the effective annual interest rate is 7%
,jPwlB1>tw#
AWlB17AW
A
¥ : : : .
. .
I ,
f f , f
B
of it ! . .
.
I , ,
I 29 30
, ,
12.409
1800 SIP / A 7^1 ; 301 -
$1862.005
PWIAI =
-
- =
,
10 594
.
PWLB ) =
-
450
-
201nA , ?
-1-1307 =
0.0806
( AIP ,7% 30 ) S = -
$150.08
AWIAI
-
= -
1800 ,
0 -
0806
Aw (B) =
-
802.36 / A / P 7% 30 )
= -
$64.67
, ,
Tutorial
§ T 3-3*: Break-Even Analysis
How many kilometers must a car be driven per year for leasing
and buying to cost the same? Use I = 10% and year-end cost.
Case 1 - Leasing: $0.15 per kilometer.
Case 2 - Buying: $5000 purchase cost, 3-year life, salvage
$1200, $0.04/ km for maintenance, $500 per year for insurance.
AW (leasing)
case 2 = $0.15x, where x is kilometers driven 2.487
0.7513
AW (buying)
PW (2) =
= $0.04x
5000
-
1- 1200+ /$500
PIF + ($5k)(A/P,10%,3)
not 3) 0.04 ✗
,
-
500 ( P / A 10% 3)
-
-
, ,
,
– ($1.2k)(A/F,10%,3)
5341.94 0.04/1
PWLZ )
- -
Pwll ) =
= $0.04x + $2148
/ SX
0 {
341.94-0.04×1-0 .
PWIZ ) Pwll )
= -
✗
0 S 341.941-0.11
$0.15x = $0.04x + $2148
-