Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Nayan Jaiswal
Time value
of money
and multiple cash flows
14 Future value
of angle
and multiple cash flow
24 Present value
of shingle
period for
34 Annuity :
Equal cashflow every
limited number of periods
PV analysis
-
FV analysis
for
44 Perpetuity Equal cashflow every period
-
54
Growing annuity and growing perpetuity
Future Value
of single cashflow
-
'
i
↳I =
Invest
PV ( Itm )
Pv is invested
@ time T
u
Jou
FV = 100 ( 1+0.175
No
compounding periods in a
year
n =
of
For annual compounding ,
A- I
semi -
annually ,
A- 2
n -12
monthly
-
n = 52
weekly
,
4
guateuly in =
lt ( nm)
Fit =
n→ co
pv
( pg)
I +
= py.e.PT
A-
After weekly compounding the increase is
below that
negligible
Future Value Multiple cashflow.sn
*
of
Burn value of
individual cashflowa
of future
-
↑
Beg of year
9
I 1 I 1
0 I 2 3
11 2L 3L
Maturity
.¥
3
1 ( lo 1)
Total FV =
100000 ( to 1)
3
+ 20000011132+300000
I
( 1. 1)
* Present value
ay shingle cashflow in
amount required
-
discount the Fu
To
find PV we
-
FV = PV ( Itm)T
Discount
P" =
, ¥ux= factor
i i
that will
Er : Suppose you want to buy a
flat
What to invest @ 8%
50 lakh
now
cost Rs .
50L 5 years
to
get after
.
=%;%
-
PV =
3402916
;÷÷→
=
i i i i
4 C2 CT
{
Total
→
¥ñ '
PV g÷g .
Deem
¥ix
=
Er : Suppose bank ask you to deposit some
to
lllmpaum value and promises pay 50,000 ,
i i i i
100000
50000 70000
< {:
{
v
A
'
(1+0.1)
AUM <
B tooooo
<
( 1+0.133
C
PY = A + Btc
= 1784373
&
70000 14628.1 55371.5 90909.09
of period .
i i i i - - - - - - -
PV
of =
¥ +
4%2 ¥µp+ +
- - - - -
¥µj
annuity
It is a sequence of geometric progression
a = first term = C-
It M
M = Common ratio =
¥
teams T
no
of
=
n =
.
Sum =
a¥R
÷"
=
Fml
11 ¥7]
Pv
of annuity =
G-
-
Also
100000
M 12 % C =
=
T = 10
(÷ ) ]
"
Loan
10%0-1 ' -
=
,
C = 10000
T 10 10×12=120 months
=
years =
Loan PV
of call ¥µi]
-
= =
annuity
10%-11 ¥0,120]
-
= 697005
loan =
G- (1-1%7)
µ:÷
c- -
calculator
* How to calculate a
using
-
Method of eirteupolation
e-
8% it ? 9%
v.
I 1 I
= 824214
19%-8%3
" = • % +
Y;;;;;;?% ×
the
Case 2 :
If cashflow are in
beginning of
each period .
0 I 2 T -
l 7
I
-
,
- -
1
-
1
-
,
- -
- - -
C C C
C
C
↓
¥u)T
{
-1
Sum = C +
¥ +
¥ig2
- - - -
[ Empt -1
Geometric progression
a = C
u =
¥
n = T
%I¥÷
pit
of =
annuity
CHI / ¥
'
Pv
of
-
annuity
start sometime in
case 3 :
If cashflows from
future .
C C C
I 1 I 1 I 1 -
I
4 5
- -
3 t
-
2
-
- - -
0 I
¥ñ Fai
"
¥5
a=
¥µ M
¥
=
a
,
T 3
n
-
pug annuity
¥x!Y¥¥!-
=
PV
of annuity
=
µ¥µp ( (1%5-3)
I -
Session 3
* Future value
of annuity at the end each
case the cash flows are of
1 :
If
period
i
°
%
2
, i ,
-
-
- - - - - - - -
C C C C
Fu ?
get ¥ñ]
=
* = -
Hid
↓
1=11 =
G- (
I
-¥µp)(
Consider it as a
CF and
Atingle
compound if Joe
@ u%
T period
/ CHUY if
of annuity %
-
FV
=
the cash flows
Case 2 :
If
are in the
beginning of
each period .
til
of annuity =
¥341 + a)
'
-1
] .
2=1000
Example Suppose 1 deposit
: every
instalments ] @ 8% what
160
.
month
for 5 years interest is
will be the maturity value if
compounded monthly .
1000
-
Instalment ,
C =
month
9=8%112 per
60 months
years
=
F- 5
Maturity value =
F. V
of annuity .
¥1M (
) CHM )' -
if
10004,1%3-11 1)
"
%)
=
, + -
=
rate is
Same but interest
Example :
-
example
compounded quateuly
.
( = 1000
rate
q%_ greater
M
per
=
nt
→ Thine in graters
FY = C
( g) I +
rate
↳
Quarterly
* Perpetuity number
Equal cashflow every period for
infinite
of periods
bonds
Ex : Perpetual
the end each
Case 1 :
Y cushy lows are at
of
period
i i i - - -
- - - -
is
C
C
C
of geometric prog
.
=
Infinite aeguenee
So =
IR
a =
¥µ ,
R =
+¥
s. =
µ,
PV
of perpetuity
=
G-
Er : -
10%
cashflow every period Jael forever If
.
a-
bond
what will be the price of
i. Price
g
band = Pv
of perpetuity
100 £
=
& =
%% =
each
Case 2 : in the beginning of
Y cashflow
- are
period .
LHM)
Pu
of perpetuity =
§
2=10 is ein the
Er :
-
Dame example , but cashflow of
each period
beginning of
.
Pu =
•4¥ =
%
= 110 I
'
◦
! k 's
Rs "↓¥@ ↓
2=10 10%
2--10
and 2=100@
invested
10%
* Growing Perpetuity
based dividend
-
rate forever
growth
.
at constant
glows
i i i i - - - - - - - - - - -
%
2
C CG ) cat g)
-1g
ñE=_
* =
÷ ,
+
Y.it?-.+Y,::?-i
Infinite sequence of geometric progression
a- -
¥ , u=%
PV
of growing Cee 9
=
te >
'
↓
perpetuity g
-
Discount growth
hate
rate
RV all
by taking of dividend
discount model the
Under dividend
,
to at constant rate
g for
is expected grow
forever .
¥g
u >
of equity
Value
=
, g
Er : what can be of equity
the
fair value
2=100
Value
of equity
=
10%
5-
-
5%
=
% .
=
*
Growing Annuity
at constant growth rate for
Cashflow a
grow
limited number
of periods
.
i i i i - - - - - -
- -
I
C catg)
C G + g)
2
C
(1+9)-1-1
÷' ÷ :÷:
{#
" .
a.
PV =
a- -
¥, r=Y¥ñ
Sn =
a¥pR)_
Pv
og growing =
÷g / ' -
4,4%4
annuity
Session 4
based dividend
of equity
on
* Valuation
discount model
-
m this case we assume
that the life of
is divided into 2 phases
foin dividend is
phase : In this phase ,
14 growth at
higher
expected to guow
rate Er : g
growth
.
,
took to investment in
Nate -
we keep our
till the end
the
equity of the join of
growth phase
.
growth
.
Er :
92 "
D D 8D DG -1925
1
¥
,
!
,
0 I 2 3 T I ¥2
grow !ETmuity (
×
grow ?÷pEpdaily
Terminal value
Value at which look to exit at the end of
we
-
growth phase .
TV PH
of growing perpetuity
=
711
Ceeg
=
-
=
D
(1+9,7-14+92)
a-
g,
Alem Pil
Value of equity
=
of
¥!÷+
'
E.
- -
+
-
-
-
-
÷÷:"+:÷ ,
value
of
¥11 %÷F)+¥ñ
-
equity .
the mixed
Er : -
period dividend
ay
the join
to at the rate of
dividend is expected grow 2--100 at
stock will be add for
b- % and the
what is the fair
do
the end of years
5
is 15%
.
cast of equity
value of equity if
D= 2=5 5% et 15%
g.
=
, ,
TV = 2=100 ,
7=5 years
"
ang
equity
=
5-
115%-5%1
f- I;;÷ %a:÷i
=
2=67.99
Bondttnalyais
Bond : It is a
fixed security
tricorne .
It means
bond are certain
with
.
Website : CCIL
Emi .
8% GS 2027
↓
Year
Coupon Maturity
rate
Variablesassociatedwitband
Mate know the
14 It helps us to
-
Coupon
periodic cashflow
that we get from
bond till maturity .
is estimated as
Coupon cashflow
band
rate ✗ Face value of .
coupon
It us to know coupon
24 Face Value -
helps
bond is aver pays
payment and at maturity
)
the band holder ( if 1--4--2=100
value to
face
.
i i
2
i is
3
, ,
8 8 8 8 8 -1 100
8
1¥ ,
will mature .
annual
It is the average
44 Yeild to maturity -
the
as discount mate led to tend
price of bond .
54 Credit Rating
-
AAA
AA
A
B. BB
} Investment grade bands
BB
}
B.
bands
Speculative grade
Ccg
CC ( Junk band ]
Default
*
Solvency and Insolvency
their
Firms which can
pay
dotcom :
liabilities
liabilities
bond
64 Price Present value
of future cashflow
:
of
the band
of
.
8% as 2027 If yield
6- maturity
Suppose
.
Er :
bond
What is the price of
.
is 7% .
É 15C -1 FV
8+100
{
¥
Arm ¥ ,
,
c+
a + MY
Price
of
band =
÷ ,÷µp + -
-
- - -
+
{÷a
FI
annuity
P =
G- I
' _
¥-1 I¥ñ
(
+
%÷ l ⇐ it É÷%
' -
+
is
=
%,
= 104 I .
Note
YTM Price bond > FV
rate >
of
If coupon
,
FV
bond
Price of
=
YTM
rate
If
= ,
If coupon
linear , it
a
gives
Session 5
interest rate
* Duration
of a Bond :
Change in ,
bond
how it will be impacting value
of
^
→ Non linear portion is
Thieve of captured by convexity
bond
↳
Duration captures
> linear
relationship
bond
YTM beth YTM and
police
¥
:::::;::-
=
-
is the % in
*
Modified Duration : It change
in KTM
band piece w.at unit
change
D
modified
=
d¥x Ida
=
ftp.xpt/--p- %-)
as
dance , price of
bond is
given
÷ ¥2
-1 -
P
-
+
- -
-
w.at '
Differentiating
'
M
%,
Dmac =
Volatility of
Dmod ¥
•
=
band price
violates duration decreases
If coupon rate ,
4. 32125 years
Dmae =
= 4.04416%
D. mod
bond will
1% price of
If YTM changes by
Dmod
approximately change by
* How to convert nominal
rates to real Mates ?
interest that
• Nominal rates -
rate)
rate ( interest
Real rate :
Inflation adjusted
-
inflation
are
nominal rate and
# Case 1 :
Tf
Mates
aiinpte Nominal Mate
Ru
tµ ± inflation
-
=
rate .
# Case 2 :
Y
nominal hate and
inflation rate
rates
continuously compounding
.
are
Ree = Rn -
M
YTM 8% however
Example :
If bond promises of
be real YTM of
a
is 6% What will
inflation
.
bond ?
1.8882%
Case 1
Rn
; I
= =
:
-
6%
2%
8%
=
Case 2 Ree
-
=
:
Return
continuously compounded
*
T-uialqg.ua?nitialPriee-
Daily
Pᵗp
return =
eat
log ( p
FV = Pv
Rt
.
= ,
1- = I
eat
8¥ =
log / %¥ )
= •
return Return of
Ri + Rs is
given
For auinpte
-
Geometric Aum
( It Ri ) ( ↳ R2 )
-
*
Geometric average
=
"
tÉ+RÉG+Rn) -
*
Average of compounded return
ten
Mi t Mz Ms
- -
+
-
-
- -
-
=
-
Rt =
log (pP÷)
it
pP÷,
eʳᵗ l
Pᵗp¥ Rt
-
=
→ =
=
Session 6 :
Risk
✓ →
Nan
ayatematic
Systematic Risk
Risk
-
we can
diversify away
market like this risk by making
of factors
change win interest rate , portfolio
rate,
change
in exchange
in
macroeconomic
change
for
any
variable
rate
example iiflation ,
unemployment
rate , production
wider etc on the prices
securities in market
of
a .
we cannot reduce
risk
the systematic
ply by making
Min a
portfolio .
Cov ( 1 2)
,
= 512
=
?§ ,
(Rit-(R2t-R
Covariance can be -1-1 - .
An the
If covariance is positive →
average
in shame
two aeries are
moving
direction .
on the
If covariance is
negative average
7,2 couth 2)
%ˢ
= =
can =
=
Both aeries move in same
correlation
-
If Cole =
-
I
Perfect negative
=
Both aeries move in opposite
direction with shame % change
association between the aeries
If core 0 No
-
-
Series are moving randomly
to 0
-
Weak cowlelation -
Value near
Value to +1 I
correlation near or -
Strong
-
* Risk Premium
by investing
in
expect to earn
that we
instrument / security
risky
.
Risk El Ri ) Rt
premium
-
in atati slid
Expected means the average
the historical
E- Cri) Take average of
return
Rf
Benchmark market wider
)
leg Nifty 50 , BSE Reuven
* Marko units Portfolio
securities
It is a
portfolio of risky
-
Two asset
◦
portfolio
of annuity
1
E- (a) =
Expected ekturn
Ellen =
Expected of aeeuiutg
return 2
a = standard deviation of
returns of aeuiuty 1
standard deviation of
returns
of annuity 2
I =
between eeeturns of
COV G , 2) = 8,2 = covariance
and 2
security
1
cool G. 2) =
correlation between return of
1 and
security 2
712 =
TI % =
8120102
tire
investment in security 2
We =
Proportion of
Wz = l -
Wi
Expected return WIECM ) KKE Gz)
of = , +
Portfolio
Variance Crispr )
of
a portfolio is
CA ) (B) + 2 COVCA B)
var ( ATB ) = van + van ,
Vwe(WiAtWqB) =
With + W2Ñ + 2WiWzTAB
A- 100%
n
Efficient try ' B.= 0%
Elm)
☐
Frontier ÷ •
g-
- -
- -
- - - -
graphical uepuesentation •
minimum
raiuiance Portfolio
.
relationship
of .
yÉ
.
_ . . .
i. ,
between expected A-
? ?%i=o%
_ . _
*
Efficient frontier
frontier from
minimum
It is the upper part of
variance portfolio that provides higher expected
risk
level
.
risk
Fear
of
-
to more risk
less risk
Prefer
-
Do not care
◦
Risk seeking return
-
[YIon)
Proportion of
µ
weight reckon w =
,
=
investment in
different
nx , securities
n
-
-
-
'
[ §
e
ri "
=
i Covariances
"
l
"
" '
n on , '
Fi → variance
of
aeaviitas
different
36 Expected return vector
of
E- be ) =
( Eon ) EW - - -
-
- - - - - - - -
Eben )]
of portfolio
i.
Expected return
E- Lnp) = E- ( M) .IN =
IN , Ecu )t With]
,
-
- - - - -
+ Wn Ellen]
return
1<4 Variance
of of portfolio
Tpd =
IN É IN
Iww;) 1%9:)
t.nl ni ≤
g
:
=
-
,
Tel
tf = W
'
E W =
Wifi + KHE +2 Wink TE
Session 8
risk
*
Capital Market Line : It is a
portfolio of
free
asset (
govt bond )
and risky aeuaities
Can risk portfolios)
variables
we need
following
portfolio
-
E
crispy]
=
Expected return
of risky
( ) of risk thee
-
fleet) Expected
=
uetueen
yield
asset
asset -
O
risk free
-
standard deviation of
%
=
-
Mt )
luisky
= 0
-
Cov ,
ref )
Cuisky
-
= 0
con ,
portfolio
assessment in risk free
-
Kint = proportion of
asset
CCMD
of capital
return market line
*
Expected
E-
www.pyotluispyj-kluf
×
Cut )
Flu lamb) =
returns CML
* Variance
of of
var CC ML) =
laihrisky Frisky
•
laluisky Feisty
.
*
Equity Analysis
line It is the relationship
de market
wiety
=
and accepted
(beta] risk
between systematic the sneakily
return ) of
return ( Required
-
What is beta ?
security return
It represents the sensitivity of
to market return
with respect
.
^ undervalued security
Elki) →
¥;
- -
-
-
Properly
◦
valued security
↳
°
•
'
• →
overvalued sneaeeittg
i
>B
*
Regression
Ri=d+BRmtEt
we can estimate
B. =
Cov Cri Rm ) , '
-
l month beta
vaulrm) 3 month beta
6 month beta
1 beta
year
3 beta
yet
Lifetime
Question : How to estimate costof equity 2
cost of equity Creguoied rate
Answer : To estimate
of equity )
we can use
return
of ,
Model ( CAPM )
Capital Asset
Pricing
CAPM cost is
given as
According ,
to ,
Re = E- ( ri ) =
Rft Bi IE LRM ) -
Rf ]
rate return
required of
of equity
or
Rc = Coat
Mate)
Rf = 10 years ( Govt band
(mainly take 1
ya)
'
based on the
El Rm ) market return
=
Expected
data
market return
longest period
# Nate
:
lather 13-1 ,
stock is risky as
as market .
than market
When p >1 stock is more risky
,
than market
when 13<1 ,
stock is less risky
*
Holding Period Return
historical data CHPR )
Average return you given
HPR Rc Undervalued stock
If >
valued
HPR = Rc Properly
HPR < Rc overvalued stock
the debt
En ! Bond = 8% 452027
Price = I 102
FV = 100
MY =
9 (7.51 %)
kind bonds
If tuim has issued different of or
cost
cost of debt will be weighted sum of
debt / loans
of
With + klzllz + kits Ms -
- - - - - -
+ Khun
all -
*
Weighted Average Coat
of capital
IN Aoc =
Weighted arm
of
coat
of equity
and cost debt
of
The interest debt is text deductible
◦
payment on
IN ACC = D- Md (l -
)
T
D -1 E
E- shares
Marketplace
No
✗ of