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ALFREDO VACCARO
ANTONIO PEPICIELLO
Elsevier
Radarweg 29, PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam, Netherlands
The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, United Kingdom
50 Hampshire Street, 5th Floor, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States
Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
ISBN: 978-0-323-90502-2
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xiii
vii
viii Contents
Index 145
In memory of my Father (Alfredo Vaccaro)
To my family (Antonio Pepiciello)
Preface
Alfredo Vaccaro
Acknowledgments
The Authors wish to thank Prof. Claudio A. Canizares who inspired our
research work. Special thanks go to Prof. Kankar Bhattacharya and Dr.
Juan Carlos Munoz for their valuable contributions in applying Affine
Arithmetic-based computing in voltage stability analysis, and Prof. Alberto
Berizzi for his useful insights about the relations between affine arithmetic
and robust optimization.
xiii
CHAPTER 1
Uncertainty management in
power systems
State of the art and enabling methodologies
respect to the problem solution. Robust design theory can also be used to
approximate OPF solutions in the presence of multiple uncertainty sources
[26].
Finally, approximate methods have their shortcomings as well. For ex-
ample two-point estimate methods are not feasible for analyzing large scale
systems, especially in the presence of a large number of random variables.
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CHAPTER 2
• Product:
X1 · X2 = [ min(x1,inf x2,inf , x1,inf x2,sup , x1,sup x2,inf , x1,sup x2,sup ),
(2.3)
max(x1,inf x2,inf , x1,inf x2,sup , x1,sup x2,inf , x1,sup x2,sup )]
• Division:
X1 /X2 = x1,inf , x1,sup · 1
x2,sup , x
1
2,inf
0 ∈/ x2,inf , x2,sup (2.4)
The resulting interval is much wider than the true range, and long com-
putation chains may lead to aberrant solutions. This phenomenon requires
adopting special computing techniques [10].
Finally, the “dependency problem” is another limiting aspect of interval
computation, which is a consequence of the definition of the difference
operator (2.2):
approach originates from IA, but it keeps track of correlations between the
uncertain variables. For this reason, the resulting bounds are much tighter
and the divergence of the solution intervals observed in IA can be avoided
or mitigated [11].
In AA, an uncertain variable x is represented by an affine form, which
is a first degree polynomial:
x̂ = x0 + x1 ε1 + x2 ε2 + ... + xp εp (2.7)
where x0 and xk are known real coefficients representing the central value
and the partial deviations of the affine form x̂, respectively.
The variables εk , called the noise symbols, are defined over the interval
[−1, 1]. The noise symbols represent independent uncertainty sources af-
fecting the problem variables, which can be induced by computation errors
or exogenous uncertain sources.
12 Affine Arithmetic-Based Methods for Uncertain Power System Analysis
p
rad(x̂) := |xk | (2.8)
k=1
p
x := x0 + |xk | (2.9)
k=1
p
x := x0 − |xk | (2.10)
k=1
|X | := [x, x] (2.11)
Operations on affine forms require the replacement of real operators
with their associated AA-based version. An affine operator (x̂, ŷ) can be
defined to map a generic function (x, y) to the affine domain. This allows
computing an affine form for ζ = (x, y), which is coherent with the input
affine forms (x̂, ŷ).
An useful feature of linear functions of affine forms, is that their affine
representation can be obtained by rearranging all the original noise symbols
into an affine form, as in the following equations:
λx̂ = (λx0 ) + (λx1 )ε1 + (λx2 )ε2 + ... + (λxp )εp (2.13)
this non-affine operator approximates the function (x̂, ŷ) reasonably well
over its domain:
n
n
n
x̂ ∗ ŷ = x0 y0 + (x0 yh + y0 xh )εh + (xh yj )εh εj (2.21)
h=1 h=1 j=1
n
n
n
n
(xh yj )εh εj ≤ |xh | |yj | = R(x̂)R(ŷ) (2.22)
h=1 j=1 h=1 j=1
where the R(.) is the radius of the affine form. Starting from this result,
a new noise symbol describing the approximation error can be defined as
follows:
n
x̂ ∗ ŷ = x0 y0 + (x0 yh + y0 xh )εh + R(x̂)R(ŷ)εk (2.23)
h=1
The solution of this equation requires computing the central value x0 and
the partial deviations x1 and x2 of the affine form x̂, which shares the same
primitive noise symbols of the known term ẑF , such that:
This problem can be solved by using the similarity operator between affine
forms defined in [13], as follows:
⎧
⎪
⎨ x0 = 4
2
This affine form represents the solution of the uncertain problem. By ap-
plying the multiplication operator between affine forms, it follows that:
where the term U is the affine approximation error, which can be consid-
ered as the equivalent of the rounding error derived by using floating-point
numbers to approximate real numbers. The same paradigm can be general-
ized to solve uncertain programming problems as described in [13].
These results can be applied to solve non-linear system of uncertain
equations and constrained uncertain optimization problems, where the un-
certain equations are represented by the multiplication of affine forms. The
solution of this class of problems is extremely useful in robust power system
analysis, since the power flow equations, the system constraints, and the
cost functions can be properly expressed by products. A more effective so-
lution of this problem can be obtained by considering the following robust
definition:
n
n
x̂ ∗ ŷ = x0 y0 + x0 yh + y0 xh + (xh yj )εj εh (2.29)
h=1 j=1
n
x̂ŷ = ẑF = zF0 + zFh εh (2.30)
h=1
where ẑF is a fixed affine form, while x̂ and ŷ are the unknown terms.
To solve this problem the original uncertain equation is recast by explicitly
considering the effect of the ‘second order’ noise symbols introduced by
the product operator, as follows:
n
n
x̂ ∗ ŷ = x0 y0 + x0 yh + y0 xh + xh yj εj εh = ẑF (2.31)
h=1 j=1
Hence, by matching the central values and the partial deviations of the two
affine forms, we obtain the following system of equations:
x0 y0 = zF0
(2.32)
x0 yh + y0 xh + nj=1 xh yj εj = zFh ∀h ∈ [1, n]
where the term nj=1 xh yj εj allows to explicitly quantify the effect of the
approximation error on each partial deviation.
This is a fundamental result since it allows quantifying a priori the effect
of the approximation error on the solution sets, demonstrating that, for this
class of problems, each partial deviation is not a number but an uncertain
variable, and more precisely it is an affine form sharing the same primitive
noise symbols of the fixed affine form. A further, and more useful, result
deriving by this mathematical formulation is that it is possible to reliably
satisfy the uncertain equations (2.32), by considering the worst case bounds
Elements of reliable computing 17
n
Uh = ± xh yj ∀h ∈ [1, n] (2.33)
j=1
To assess the benefits of the proposed formalization let’s consider again the
problem formalized in (2.24), which can be recast as follows:
⎧
⎪
⎨ x0 = 4
2
In order to assess the robustness of this solution, let’s compute the corre-
sponding bounds:
which, as expected, match the bounds of the fixed affine form ẑF . On the
contrary, if we compute the bounds of the solution (2.27), we obtain:
where yr are the real numbers describing the deterministic control vari-
ables, which can be fixed independently from the input data uncertainties
(e.g. the voltage magnitude of a generator equipped with an Automatic
Voltage Regulator), and x̂s are the affine forms describing the uncertain
state variables, which become uncertain due to the effects of the input data
uncertainties (e.g. the voltage magnitude at the load buses).
A robust solution of this problem can be found by minimizing the affine
cost function, satisfying both the equality and inequality constraints for all
the possible instances of the exogenous uncertainties and for the worst case
of the endogenous uncertainties. The overall problem can be formalized by
Elements of reliable computing 19
where the worst case bounds of the affine approximation errors Ufc , Ugmh ,
and Uhl , which are introduced by the non-linear function fˆc , ĝm , and ĥl ,
respectively, can be computed by using (2.33). The total number of γ is
nF, the total number of affine forms is nX, the number of equality and
inequality constraints is nE and nI, respectively.
The multiobjective nature of this deterministic programming problem
directly derives by the need of identifying a proper trade-off between the
minimization of the ‘nominal’ value and the maximization of the robust-
ness to parameter variations, here described by the central value and the
radius of the affine cost function, respectively. This result is consistent with
the definition of the minimization operator for affine forms proposed in
[13], but, in addition, it allows considering the effects of endogenous un-
certainties, providing rigorous enclosures of the solution sets, which can be
considered as a relevant result in the AA-based computing literature.
Moreover, the problem formalized in (2.42) can be considered as a
generalization of the conventional robust formulations, which solve the
uncertain optimization problem by means of multi-scenario analyses [14],
or by identifying the worst case instance of the exogenous variables by solv-
ing a min/max optimization problem [15]. In particular, it is expected that
the solution sets computed by multi-scenario-based methods are included
in the affine hulls computed by the AA-based method, and the relative
distance depends by the number of the analyzed scenario, while the worst
case solution obtained by solving the min-max optimization problem can
be reliably approximated by considering the upper bounds of the computed
affine forms.
In addition, the representation of the solution sets by affine forms in-
volves other important benefits, which mainly derive from the possibility
20 Affine Arithmetic-Based Methods for Uncertain Power System Analysis
To assess the robustness of the computed solution, the problem (2.43) has
been solved by a Monte Carlo-based algorithm, which repetitively solved
the optimization problem by sampling the input uncertainties in their al-
lowable domain, and by a max/min optimization problem, which identifies
the instances of the input uncertainty giving the worst/best cases, hence
obtaining the following solution bounds:
hence, it can be argued that the cost function deviates from its nominal
value to ±56.9853 and ±113.9684 due to the effects of the first and second
uncertainty source, respectively. To check the consistency of these results
we solved the problem by a Monte Carlo-based algorithm, which solved
the optimization problem by separately sampling each input uncertainty, by
keeping the other to zero. The obtained results are:
where fc1 and fc2 are the minimum/maximum cost function varia-
tions observed by separately sampling the first, and the second uncertainty
source, respectively. The comparison with the corresponding partial de-
viations confirmed the effectiveness of the AA-based method in reliably
describing the input data uncertainty propagation.
22 Affine Arithmetic-Based Methods for Uncertain Power System Analysis
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CHAPTER 3
N
PiSP = Vi Vj Yij cos δi − δj − θij ∀ i ∈ NP
j=1
(3.1)
N
QjSP = Vj Vk Yjk sin δj − δk − θjk ∀j ∈ NQ
k=1
[PhSP
,min , Ph,max ] ∀h ∈ NP and [Qk,min , Qk,max ] ∀k ∈ NQ , respectively. Hence,
SP SP SP
In Eq. (3.3) Vj,0 , δi,0 are the central values related to the voltage phasor
of the i-th bus, whereas VjP,h , δjP,h and VjQ,h , δjQ,h are the partial deviations of
the j-th voltage phasor due to uncertain active and reactive power injections
at the h-th bus, respectively.
Q̂j = Qj,0 + QjP,h εhP + QjQ,k εkQ + Qj,a εa ∀j ∈ NQ
h∈NP k∈NQ a∈Na
(3.5)
P̂i = Pi,0 + PiP,h εhP + PiQ,k εkQ + P i ,a ε a ∀ i ∈ NP
h∈NP k∈NQ a∈Na
where P̂i and Q̂j are the affine forms of the calculated active and reactive
power injections in the i-th and j-th bus, respectively. Due to the pres-
ence of non-affine operations, additional noise symbols are required, which
are defined as εa . The coefficients of each noise symbols are expressed as
QjP,h (PiP,h ), and QjQ,k (PiQ,k ), together with Qj,a and Pi,a which depend on
the approximation error introduced by the non-affine operations. The val-
ues Qj,0 (Pi,0 ) are the central values, corresponding to the deterministic
case.
The AA operators defined in (2.12)–(2.14) and the affine approxima-
tions of the sinusoidal functions described in [3] are used to obtain QjP,h ,
QjQ,k , Qj,a , PiP,h , PiQ,k , and Pi,a . The obtained affine forms (3.5) can then be
arranged in the following matrix form:
⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤
Q̂1 Q1,0
⎢ ... ⎥ ⎢ ... ⎥
⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢Q̂NQ ⎥ ⎢QNQ ,0 ⎥
⎢ ⎥ =⎢ ⎥+
⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢ P̂1 ⎥ ⎢ P1,0 ⎥
⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎣ ... ⎦ ⎣ ... ⎦
P̂NP PNP ,0
Uncertain power flow analysis 27
⎡ ⎤⎡ ⎤
Q1P,1 ... Q1P,NP Q1Q,1 Q
... Q1,NQ εP
⎢ ⎥⎢ 1 ⎥
⎢ ... ... ... ... ... ... ⎥ ⎢ ... ⎥
⎢ P ⎥⎢ P ⎥
⎢Q Q
... QNQ ,NQ ⎥
Q
⎥⎢ ε ⎥
P
... QN QN
⎢ N ,1 Q ,NP Q ,1 ⎢ NP ⎥ +
+⎢ Q ⎥ ⎢ εQ ⎥
⎢ PP P1Q,1 ... P1,NQ ⎥
Q
⎢ 1,1 ... P1P,NP ⎥⎢⎢ 1 ⎥
⎥
⎢ ... ⎥ ⎣ ... ⎦
⎣ ... ... ... ... ... ⎦
Q
PNP P ,1 ... PNP P ,NP PNQP ,1 Q
... PN ,N P Q
εNQ
⎡ ⎤⎡ ⎤
Q1,1 ... Q1,NN ε1
⎢ ... ... ⎥
⎢ ... ⎥⎢ ... ⎥
⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥
⎢QNQ ,1 ... QNQ ,NN ⎥ ⎢ ... ⎥
+⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥ (3.6)
⎢ P1,1 ... P1,NN ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢ ...
⎢ ⎥ ⎣ ... ⎥⎦
⎣ ... ... ... ⎦
PNP ,1 ... PNP ,NN εNa
F(X) = AX + B (3.7)
where
⎡ ⎤
Q1P,1 ... Q1P,NP Q1Q,1 Q
... Q1,NQ
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ... ... ... ... ... ... ⎥
⎢ P ⎥
⎢Q P
... QN
Q
QN ... QNQ ,NQ ⎥
Q
⎢ N ,1 Q ,NP Q ,1 ⎥
A = ⎢ PQ ⎥ (3.8)
⎢ P ... P1P,NP P1Q,1 ... P1,NQ ⎥
Q
⎢ 1, 1 ⎥
⎢ ... ... ⎥
⎣ ... ... ... ... ⎦
PNP P ,1 ... PNP P ,NP PNQP ,1 Q
... PNP ,NQ
⎤⎡
ε1P
⎢ ... ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ εP ⎥
⎢ NP ⎥
X=⎢
⎢ εQ ⎥
⎥ (3.9)
⎢ 1 ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎣ ... ⎦
Q
εNQ
28 Affine Arithmetic-Based Methods for Uncertain Power System Analysis
⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤⎡ ⎤
Q1,0 Q1,1 ... Q1,Na ε1
⎢ ... ⎥ ⎢ ... ... ⎥
⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ... ⎥⎢ ... ⎥
⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥
⎢QNQ ,0 ⎥ ⎢QNQ ,1 ... QNQ ,Na ⎥ ⎢ ... ⎥
⎢
⎢
B=⎢ ⎥+⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥
⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ... ⎥ (3.10)
⎢ P1,0 ⎥ ⎢ P1,1 ... P1,Na ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥
⎣ ... ⎦ ⎣ ... ... ... ⎦ ⎣ ... ⎦
PNP ,0 PNP ,1 ... PNP ,Na εNa
AX + B = FSP (3.11)
where FSP is the following interval vector defining the interval of active
and reactive powers:
⎡ ⎤
[Q1SP,min , Q1SP,max ]
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ... ⎥
⎢ SP ⎥
⎢[QNQ ,min , QNQ ,max ]⎥
SP
F =⎢
SP ⎢ ⎥ (3.12)
⎥
⎢ [P1SP , P SP
] ⎥
⎢ ,min 1,max ⎥
⎣ ... ⎦
[PNP ,min , PNP ,max ]
SP SP
AX = C (3.13)
Q
min (εk , εhP ) ∀ k ∈ NQ , ∀ h ∈ NP
Q
s.t. −1 ≤ ε k ≤ 1, −1 ≤ εhP ≤ 1 (3.14)
inf (C) ≤ AX ≤ sup(C)
Uncertain power flow analysis 29
Q
max (εk , εhP ) ∀ k ∈ NQ , ∀ h ∈ NP
Q
s.t. −1 ≤ ε k ≤ 1, −1 ≤ εhP ≤ 1 (3.15)
inf (C) ≤ AX ≤ sup(C)
The corresponding PF solution can then be obtained by using conven-
tional linear programming problem solvers [4]:
V j = Vj , 0 + VjP,h [εhP,min , εhP,max ] + VjQ,k [εkQ,min , εkQ,max ] ∀j ∈ NQ
h∈NP k∈NQ
Q Q Q
δi = δi,0 + δiP,h [εhP,min , εhP,max ] + δi,k [εk,min , εk,max ] ∀ i ∈ NP
h∈NP k∈NQ
(3.16)
This solution scheme is an improved alternative to the conventional
linearization-based technique used when solving uncertain non-linear
equations by IA:
modeling the central values and the partial deviations by vector compo-
nents.
For the examples presented, an uncertainty of ±20% (40%) was assumed
on fixed active and reactive powers. This interval may represent the uncer-
tainty introduced by variable renewable energy sources, such as wind and
solar. The solution was found by applying the AA-based PF, previously de-
scribed. Simulations were conducted on an Intel Core Duo CPU @ 3 GHz
with 3 GB RAM and the obtained results are presented and discussed in
the following sections for each considered case study.
Figure 3.1 Interval active power for each bus of the 30-bus network.
Figure 3.2 Interval reactive power for each bus of the 30-bus network.
32 Affine Arithmetic-Based Methods for Uncertain Power System Analysis
Figure 3.3 Interval voltage magnitude for each bus of the 30-bus network.
Figure 3.4 Interval voltage phase angle for each bus of the 30-bus network.
Uncertain power flow analysis 33
Figure 3.6 Interval active power for each bus of the 57-bus network.
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— Millainen hän sitten on? — kysyi Aljoša. — Onko hän kantelija?
Poika odotti ääneti ja uhmailevana vain sitä, että Aljoša nyt toki
välttämättömästi hyökkäisi hänen kimppuunsa. Kun hän näki että
tämä nytkään ei aio sitä tehdä, niin hän vimmastui kuin peto: hän
syöksyi paikaltaan ja hyökkäsi Aljošan kimppuun, eikä tämä
ennättänyt liikahtaakaan, kun ilkeä poika taivuttaen päänsä alas ja
tarttuen molemmin käsin hänen vasempaan käteensä puraisi
kipeästi hänen keskisormeaan. Poika pureutui siihen hampaineen
eikä noin kymmeneen sekuntiin päästänyt sitä irti. Aljoša huudahti
kivusta ja nyki kaikin voimin sormeaan. Poika päästi sen viimein irti
ja juoksi pois entisen välimatkan päähän. Sormea hän oli purrut
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— No, hyvä, — sanoi hän, — näette, kuinka kipeästi olette minua
purrut, kai se jo riittää? Sanokaa nyt, mitä minä olen teille tehnyt?
4.
Hohlakovien luona
— Sain kyllä.
Mutta heti kun Lise näki raosta Aljošan sormen, hän avasi oven
selko selälleen.
— Minä tuon heti kaikki, Lise, älä vain huuda äläkä ole levoton.
Näetkö, kuinka lujana Aleksei Fjodorovitš kantaa onnettomuutensa.
Missä te olettekaan voinut niin kamalasti haavoittua, Aleksei
Fjodorovitš?
— Se jäi sinne.
— Minkä tähden?
— Te loukkaatte minua!
— Enhän minä voinut tietää, että hän tulee tänne sormi purtuna,
muutenhan tosiaankin olisin voinut tehdä sen tahallani. Enkelini,
äitikulta, te alatte puhua tavattoman teräväjärkisesti.
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puhumaan hullusta pojasta ja sinä teit jo omat johtopäätöksesi. Heti
kun Katerina Ivanovna sai kuulla teidän tulleen, Aleksei Fjodorovitš,
hän syöksyi luokseni, hänellä on hirveä, hirveä halu nähdä teitä.
— Ah, äiti! Menkää sinne yksin, hän ei voi nyt heti lähteä, hän
kärsii kovin.
— Ah, Lise, tuo on vain leikkiä sinun puoleltasi, vaan mitäpä, jos
tosiaankin nukkuisit! — huudahti rouva Hohlakov.
— Minä en tiedä, millä olen… Minä jään vielä noin kolmeksi tai, jos
niin tahdotte, viideksi minuutiksi, — mutisi Aljoša.
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