Memorial University

ENGI 9121 (Winter 2024)

Assignment 3
Due Date: March 27, Thursday

Important points: You can make appropriate assumptions for the data you believe missing. However,
state your assumptions clearly.
Question 1 (20 marks)
Figure 1 shows a schematic of a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) with associated
protection layers. A coolant stream and a heat exchanger are used to cool the reactor, as
shown in Figure 1. The objective is to maintain the temperature inside the reactor at the
desired value when subjected to changes in inlet concentration and temperature. When the
CSTR is in operation, the conversion and the temperature may undergo large variations in
response to disturbances in one or more input parameters. Loss of coolant, for example, and
temperature deviation above the target reaction temperature results in highly exothermic
conditions and this situation might be characterized as runaway. The reactor might be
uncontrolled at this condition due to autocatalytic decomposition of the reaction and this
could result in an explosion. The released material would be toxic, corrosive, and flammable.
If the temperature drops below the target reaction temperature, the system experiences
quality loss due to off- specification of the final product. This situation can eventually result
in reactor shutdown if the temperature drops below the onset temperature of the reaction.
Table 1 shows the frequency of the initiating event (loss of coolant and temperature deviation) and
the probability of failure on demand (PFD) of different safety barriers. Use this information to (a)
draw an event tree for this problem, show different safety barriers, and predict different outcomes
of temperature deviation in the CSTR; (b) calculate the frequency of each identified outcome.

Table 1. Probability of failure on demand values for different safety barriers in the CSTR

Symbol Description of Description Frequency

Symbol (Event/Year)
IE Initiating Event Initiating Event 1
SB1 Safety Barrier 1 Control System 0.01
SB2 Safety Barrier 2 High temperature alarm 0.05
SB3 Safety Barrier 3 Operator action 0.2
SB4 Safety Barrier 4 Hi-Hi temperature alarm 0.05
SB5 Safety Barrier 5 Automatic Emergency Shutdown (ESD) 0.01
System
SB6 Safety Barrier 5 Manual ESD 0.4

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 Figure 1. Exothermic CSTR and associated protection layers

Question 2 (20 marks)

𝒊)
(𝒂)
Compare required input information, outcomes, and objectives of fault tree analysis (FTA)
and event tree analysis (ETA) techniques (maximum 200 words).
(𝒃)
Briefly differentiate between Bayesian networks and fault trees.
(𝒊𝒊)
Determine the probability, reliability, failure rate and MTBF for the top event in the system
shown in Figure 2. Also identify the minimal cut sets.

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 Figure 2. Fault tree for question 2

Question 3 (20 Marks)

Using the Bayes Fusion Software (Genie) for Academia downloadable from the link
(BayesFusion Downloads), conduct a Bayesian modeling using the failure probability data
and system components relationships provided in Figure 2. Use your experience or make
realistic assumptions to construct the conditional probability table (CPT) required in the
Bayesian network model to replace the gates in the fault tree provided in the Figure 2.
Perform the following tasks with the Bayesian network model:
a) Structure (Structural) learning.
b) Parameter (Parametric) earning.
c) Posterior (Updated) probability distribution estimation.

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Question 4 (40 marks)
A vapor cloud explosion in a chemical plant was caused due to the leakage of 6000 kg of propane.
The plant was spread over an area with a radius of 200 m with highly congested equipment and
storage tanks. The population density in the plant was approximately 0.1 person per square meter.
It can be assumed that everyone was in a standing position in a free space without any immediate
surrounding surface. The total number of death due to lung damage caused by the explosion was
500.
Use the three methods for overpressure calculation to check which method produces a result
nearest to the actual death count due to lung damage.
Note: get all necessary data and information from the textbook materials posted.

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