Journal of Energy Storage 59 (2023) 106504

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Journal of Energy Storage

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Research papers

Thermal reliability assessment and sensitivity analysis of 18,650 cylindrical

lithium-ion battery
Zhou Yang a, *, Yu Yan a, Unsong Pak a, b
a
School of Mechanical Engineering & Automation, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China
b
Pyongyang Transportation University, Pyongyang 999093, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: In order to solve the problems of thermal safety and thermal reliability of the battery, a method of thermal
Lithium-ion battery reliability assessment and reliability sensitivity analysis for an 18,650 cylindrical lithium-ion battery is proposed.
P2D model The finite element analysis (FEA) software is used to establish an electrochemical-thermal coupling model of the
Thermal model
lithium-ion battery. By comparing the expected and experimental results, the accuracy of the proposed model is
Experiment
verified, and the model is subsequently used to analyze the thermal reliability. The adaptive Kriging method is
Reliability
used to establish the thermal reliability performance function model and assess the thermal reliability of the
lithium-ion battery. Additionally, in order to study the influence of the material parameters on the thermal
reliability of the battery, gradual reliability and reliability sensitivity analyses are conducted. The results show
that when the density is 3150 kg/m3, the reliability reaches 0.993, which is 14.4 % higher than that of the
existing battery, while the sensitivity value decreases. When the specific heat capacity is 1310 J/kg⋅K, the
reliability of the battery reaches 0.986, which is 13.6 % higher than that of the existing battery, while the
sensitivity value decreases. Lastly, the thermal conductivity has little influence on the thermal reliability of the
battery.

1. Introduction
With the increasing risk of environmental pollution and the deep­
ening of the global energy crisis, the transition from traditional energy
vehicles to electric vehicles has become increasingly imperative.
Lithium-ion batteries have been widely used in electric vehicles due to
their properties of high voltage, low self-discharge rate, large specific
energy and relatively long life [1,2].
Lithium-ion battery is an important part of electric vehicle. A failure
of the battery directly affects the safety of vehicles [3]. With the wide­
spread use of lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles, the reliability and
safety of batteries have become an important factor in the performance
evaluation of electric vehicles [4]. Chen et al. [5] proposed a novel
electro-thermal coupling model for temperature prediction and safety
analysis under external short circuit fault. Li et al. [6] conducted a
reliability analysis of primary battery packs using the universal gener­
ating function method. Ran et al. [7] proposed a strategy to enhance the
reliability of lithium-ion batteries based on a statistical analysis and
study of the macro-mechanism of product failures. Based on the
degradation of the battery pack, Liu et al. [8] research the trade-off
problem between the number of redundant battery cells and their reli­
ability. Xia et al. [1] proposed a reliability design method considering
the thermal disequilibrium based on cell redundancy. For the problem of
predicting and evaluating remaining useful life and reliability, Wang
et al. [9] established a reliability model considering the dependency
among cells, Zhu et al. [10,11] realized the real-time reliability evalu­
ation of the battery using the based-performance degradation Wiener
process model. Based on a response surface methodology and a multi-
physics coupling simulation, Xia et al. [12] proposed a novel reli­
ability optimization method for a battery pack. From the above research,
it can be seen that the safety and reliability of the lithium-ion batteries
are crucial and urgent for the development of electric vehicles.
Thermal runaway is the key scientific problem in battery thermal
safety research, which has been widely investigated by multiple scholars
in recent years. Thermal runaway is related to a temperature rise orig­
inating from external or internal heat generation during abnormal abuse
[13]. Possible abuse conditions of lithium-ion batteries include electrical
abuse [14–16], thermal abuse [17–20] and mechanical abuse [21,22]. A
thermal runaway event can occur when the temperature of the cell
reaches a certain degree which triggers the breakdown of the solid-

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: yangzhou@mail.neu.edu.cn (Z. Yang).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.est.2022.106504
Received 27 July 2022; Received in revised form 18 December 2022; Accepted 20 December 2022
Available online 27 December 2022
2352-152X/© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Z. Yang et al.
Table 1
Key details of the 18,650 lithium-ion battery.
Parameter Value
Cathode material LiNixCoyMnzO2
Anode material Graphite
Nominal capacity 2500mAh
Rated voltage 3.6 V
Charging cut-off voltage 4.2 V
Discharging cut-off voltage 3.0 V
Dimensions 18 mm diameter × 65 mm height
Mass of cell 48 g
electrolyte interface (SEI) layer [23]. When the temperature reaches
90–120 ◦ C, the SEI film starts exothermic decomposition [19,24,25];
When the temperature exceeds 120 ◦ C, the negative electrode will lose
protection from the SEI layer [26]; When the temperature exceeds
130 ◦ C, the separator will melt [27,28]; When the temperature reaches
150–310 ◦ C, the positive material starts to decompose [19]; When
temperature exceeds 200 ◦ C, the electrolyte will decompose and pro­
duce combustible gases [29]. Feng et al. [30,31] summarized the abuse
conditions that may lead to thermal runaway from typical accidents and
comprehensively reviewed the thermal runaway mechanism of com­
mercial electric vehicle lithium-ion batteries. Ren et al. [32] researched
the relationship between an internal short circuit and thermal runaway
of lithium-ion batteries under thermal abuse conditions, and provided
new insights into the battery thermal runaway mechanism. In addition
to the above studies, there is much additional related research on
thermal runaway of lithium-ion batteries [33–39].
The above research provides significant guidance and reference
value for the thermal runaway mechanism and thermal safety problem
of the lithium-ion battery. At present, while there is much research on
the thermal runaway mechanism and the reliability of the lithium-ion
battery, there is relatively little research on the effect of the battery
material on thermal reliability. Improving the thermal properties of the
battery materials is one of the most effective ways to solve the problems
of the thermal safety and the thermal reliability [40]. Therefore, this
Fig. 1. Experiment platform.
2
Journal of Energy Storage 59 (2023) 106504
paper researches the influence of material parameters on the thermal
reliability of lithium-ion batteries through the thermal reliability
sensitivity analysis of the lithium-ion battery. The electrochemical-
thermal coupling model of an 18,650 lithium-ion battery is estab­
lished using the FEA software. The temperature distribution of the
battery is obtained by FEA at a discharge rate of 3C. A comparison be­
tween the FEA results and the experimental results verifies the accuracy
of the established model. According to reliability theory, the adaptive
Kriging surrogate model method is used to establish the battery thermal
reliability performance function model. Adaptive Kriging Monte-Carlo
simulation (AK-MCS) method is used to evaluate the thermal reli­
ability at a high charge-discharge rate. In order to further study the
influence of material parameters on the thermal reliability, gradual
reliability analysis and reliability sensitivity analyses are conducted.
This paper is organized as follows: the experiment of lithium-ion battery
is presented in Section 2; the model development is presented in Section
3; the reliability and the reliability sensitivity analysis are presented in
Section 4; Finally, the conclusions of this research are given in Section 5.
2. Experiment
The reliability assessment and sensitivity analysis of a lithium-ion
battery require a lot of experimental data. In order to reduce cost and
computation time, we use the FEA method to replace the battery
experiment. The 18,650 cylindrical lithium-ion battery is used for the
experiment and subsequent model validation, with the relevant details
of the 18,650 lithium-ion battery provided in Table 1.
The established battery experiment platform is shown in Fig. 1. It
includes the data acquisition system, the control system, the thermal
chamber and the battery test system. The experiment is set in a normal
environment, and the battery test system is connected to the control
system. In order to study the charge and discharge characteristics of the
battery, several sensors are used to carry out the information collection
in the experiment. The information collection includes voltage, current,
and battery temperature of the charge and discharge process. The data
collection device is used to process and transfer the signals collected by
Z. Yang et al. Journal of Energy Storage 59 (2023) 106504

the chamber. The battery charge and discharge process are controlled by
the battery test system. The battery is charged at a constant current of
1.2A to the cut-off voltage of 4.2 V, and then charged at a constant
voltage of 4.2 V to the cut-off current of 0.048A, and then stood for 2 h.
After the charging is complete, the battery is left disconnected for 2 h, so
that the internal balance of the battery is restored. The battery is then
discharged at a discharge rate of 3C to the cut-off voltage of 3 V,
disconnected from the load, and left for 10 min. Throughout the
experiment, the current, voltage and temperature changes of the battery
are recorded.

3. Model development

3.1. P2D model

Newman's Pseudo two-dimensional (P2D) model of lithium-ion

Fig. 2. P2D model.
the sensor. To ensure the safety and normal operation of the sensor
during the experiment, two temperature sensors are fixed on the surface
of the battery with insulating tape. Two iterations of this experiment are
performed: the first at a thermal chamber temperature of 20 ◦ C and the
second at a thermal chamber temperature of 25 ◦ C. After setting the
thermal chamber to the test temperature, the lithium battery is placed in
battery is one of the most widely used models in battery research
[41,42]. The P2D model is shown as Fig. 2. In this model, the solution
phase diffusion is described by the diffusion and migration of lithium
ions along the thickness x-direction of the battery; the solid phase
diffusion is described by the diffusion process of lithium ions along the
active particle radius r. The governing equations and boundary condi­
tions of the P2D model are shown in Table 2, and the related parameters
are listed in Table 3.
3.2. Thermal model
During the discharge process of a lithium-ion battery, heat is
generated and the surface temperature of the lithium-ion battery in

Table 2
Governing equations and boundary condition of the P2D model.
Description Governing equation Boundary condition

⎧ ⃒
∂ce,n ⃒⃒
Negative electrode solution phase diffusion ∂c ∂2 ce,n ⎪
⎪ =0 (1)
εe,n e,n = Deff
e,n + an (1 − t+ )jn ⎨ ∂l ⃒
⎪
l=0
∂t ∂l2 ⃒ ⃒
⎪
⎪ ∂ce,n ⃒⃒ ∂ce,n ⃒⃒
⎩ Deff
⎪
e,n = Deff
e,sep
∂l l=l−n
⃒ ∂Il ⃒l=l+n
⎧ ∂c ⃒⃒
e,p ⃒
∂ce,p ∂2 ce,p ⎪
⎪ =0
Positive electrode solution phase diffusion εe,p = Deff + ap (1 − t+ )jp
⎪
⎨ ∂l ⃒l=ln +ls +lp (2)
e,p
∂t ∂l 2 ⃒ ⃒
⎪
⎪ ∂ce,p ⃒⃒ ∂ce,p ⃒⃒
⎩ − Deff
⎪
e,p = − Deff e,sep
∂l ⃒l=(ln +ls )− ∂l ⃒l=(ln +ls )+
⎧ ⃒ ⃒
⎪ ∂ce,sep ⃒⃒ ∂ce,p ⃒⃒
2
⎪
⎪ Deff = Deff
Separator area solution phase diffusion ∂ce,sep eff ∂ ce,sep
⎪
⎪
⎪
e,sep
∂l l=(ln +ls )
⃒ e,p
∂l ⃒l=(ln +ls )+ (3)
= De,sep
−
εe,sep ⎪
⎨
∂t ∂l 2 ⃒ ⃒
⎪ ce,n l=l− = ce,sep l=l+
⃒ ⃒
⎪ n n
⎪
⎪ ⃒
⎪
⎪ ⃒ ⃒
⎩ ce,p ⃒l=(ln +ls )+ = ce,sep ⃒
⎪
⃒ l=(ln +ls )−
( ) ⎧ ∂cs,n ⃒
Negative electrode solid phase diffusion ∂cs,n 1 ∂ 2 ∂cs,n ⎪
⎪
⎨ ∂r ⃒r=0
⃒ = 0 (4)
= Ds,n 2 r
∂t r ∂r ∂r ⃒
⎩ ∂cs,n ⃒ jn
⎪
⎪ ⃒
=−
( ) ∂r ⃒r=Rn Ds,n
Positive electrode solid phase diffusion ∂cs,p 1 ∂ 2 ∂cs,p (5)
= Ds,p 2 r
∂t r ∂r ∂r

⎧ ⃒
∂ϕohm ⃒
s,n ⃒ I
∂2 ϕohm ⎪ eff
Negative electrode solid phase Ohm's Law
⎪
⎪ − σ n ⃒ = (6)
σeff
n
s,n
= an Fjn ⎪
⎨ ∂l ⃒ A0
l=0
∂l 2 ⃒
⎪
⎪ ∂ϕohm ⃒
⎪ s,n ⃒⃒
⎪
⎩ =0
∂l ⃒ (7)
l=ln

⎧ ⃒
2 ohm ⎪
⎪ eff
∂ϕohm ⃒
s,p ⃒ I
Positive electrode solid phase Ohm's Law eff ∂ ϕs,p
⎪ − σ p ⃒ =
σp = a p Fj
⎪
⎪
⎨ ∂ l ⃒ A0
p l=l
∂l 2 n +ls +l p

⎪ ∂ϕohm ⃒⃒
⎪
⎪
⎪ s,p ⃒⃒
⎪
⎩ ∂l ⃒ =0
( )0.5 ( )0.5 [ ((1 − β )F ) ( l=ln +l)s ]
Butler-Volmer equation ji = ki cs,i
surf
cmax
surf
ce 0.5 exp i β F
ηi − exp i ηi , i = n, p (8)
s,i − cs,i
RT RT

3
Z. Yang et al. Journal of Energy Storage 59 (2023) 106504

creases to different levels. The temperature of a lithium-ion battery in­ There are three forms of heat transfer, namely heat transfer, heat
creases faster as the discharge current increases. The high battery tem­ convection and heat radiation. In the heat transfer process of lithium-ion
perature can affect the battery operation and even cause permanent battery, thermal radiation usually has a little influence on the battery, so
damage to the battery itself. The lithium-ion battery model contains it is usually ignored in the electrochemical heat generation model of
multiple sources of heat, as follows [43–45] lithium-ion battery. In the simulation process, the FEA software is used
to establish the three-dimensional thermal model of lithium-ion battery
Q = Qer + Qp + Qohm + Qsr (9)
[47].
where Qer is the heat of the electrochemical reaction, Qp is the polari­ ∂T ∂2 T ∂2 T ∂2 T
zation heat, Qohm is the ohmic heating, Qsr is the heat of secondary ρC P = λx 2 + λy 2 + λz 2 + q (11)
∂t ∂x ∂y ∂z
reaction.
When the lithium-ion battery is discharged normally, the tempera­ where λx, λy, λz are the anisotropic thermal conductivity, and q is the
ture of the battery will be below 90 ◦ C. In this case, the polarization heat battery heat generation rate.
generation, electrochemical heat generation and ohmic heating gener­
ation reactions are mainly in operation. With the gradual increase in
time and battery temperature, a lithium-ion battery will undergo SEI 3.3. Validation model and sample data
film decomposition reaction, negative electrode and electrolyte reac­
tion, positive electrode and electrolyte reaction and electrolyte decom­ Based on the theory discussed above, COMSOL Multi-physics soft­
position reaction in sequence until the end of discharge or failure of the ware is used to calculate the battery terminal voltage, open circuit
lithium-ion battery. voltage and other battery performance parameters at every moment of
Bernardi et al. proposed a model of cell heat production with uniform lithium-ion battery operation. These parameters are set in the heat
internal heating [46]. The model has two assumptions: First, the battery generation model of the lithium-ion battery, while the temperature field
can be treated as a mass point with uniform heat generation; Second, the distribution of the battery is calculated by using the model.
heat generation of the battery mainly comes from the entropy change Due to the complex internal structure of an 18,650 battery, the mesh
heat generated by the chemical reaction of the battery itself and the quantity will be very large, therefore FEA is difficult to converge. In
ohmic heating generated by the polarization of the battery, ignoring order to reduce the computational complexity of the FEA, the finite
other heat generation factors inside the battery. This model reduces the element model is simplified while ensuring the accuracy of the model,
computational complexity of heat generation temperature prediction for and the battery is assumed to be the overall heat source. The selection of
Lithium-ion batteries, as described below mesh scale is very important for FEA. In order to select the optimal
[ ( )] convergent mesh, the lithium-ion battery surface temperature is used as
∂T dE the convergent parameter to conduct the mesh sensitivity analysis. Fig. 3
ρVCP = I (E − U) + T − hA (T − Tamb ) (10)
∂t dT shows that after the number of mesh elements exceeds 2 × 104, further
increase of mesh elements has little impact on the calculation results.
where ρ is the battery density, V is the battery volume, Cp is the specific Therefore, 2 × 104 elements are used as the baseline for the number of
heat capacity, E is the open circuit battery voltage, U is the terminal mesh elements in the subsequent calculation process.
voltage, I is the battery operating current, T is the battery temperature, Fig. 4 shows the comparison between the experiment and FEA tem­
hA is the coefficient of heat convection, Tamb is the ambient temperature. perature distributions at the 3C discharge rates, where the highest
temperatures of the experiment and FEA are respectively: (a) 28.70 ◦ C
Table 3
and 28.51 ◦ C; (b) 29.35 ◦ C and 29.15 ◦ C; (c) 33.76 ◦ C and 33.52 ◦ C; (d)
P2D model parameters. 34.35 ◦ C and 34.09 ◦ C. In order to facilitate comparison with the
experimental data, the ambient temperature of FEA is set as the exper­
Parameters Description Value Unit
imental temperature. According to the comparative analysis, the results
ce, n Negative electrode electrolyte concentration 2000 mol/m3 of the two methods are essentially the same, and the average relative
ce, Positive electrode electrolyte concentration 2000 mol/m3
p
errors between the two methods are 0.62 %, 0.68 %, 0.49 % and 0.43 %
ce, sep Separator electrolyte concentration 2000 mol/m3
Max concentration of negative electrode respectively, which are all within the acceptable range. Therefore, the
cmax 26,390 mol/m3
s, n
solid phase accuracy of the model is verified and the model can be used for subse­
cmax
Max concentration of positive electrode solid
22,860 mol/m3
quent battery reliability analysis.
s, p
phase Currently, battery thermal runaway problem is a research hotspot in
cs, n Negative electrode solid phase concentration 14,870 mol/m3
cs, p Positive electrode solid phase concentration 3886 mol/m3
industry. Thermal runaway is a chain reaction caused by various factors,
3.9e- where a significant amount of heat and harmful gases emitted by the
Ds, Solid-phase Li diffusivity, negative electrode m2/s
n
14 reaction cause the battery to catch fire and explode. The solution to the
1.0e- thermal runaway problem is to improve the external protection (cooling
Ds, p Solid-phase Li diffusivity, positive electrode m2/s
13
mode) and internal improvement (material structure inside the cell), so
7.5e-
Deff
e, p Electrolyte Li diffusivity, positive electrode m2/s that the battery has better heat resistance and heat dissipation perfor­
11
7.5e- mance. In order to show the influence of battery materials on thermal
Deff Electrolyte Li diffusivity, negative electrode m2/s
runaway more directly, the thermal analysis of batteries with different
e, n
11
7.5e- materials is carried out at 10C discharge rates (determined by experi­
Deff
e, sep Electrolyte Li diffusivity, separator m2/s
11
ln Negative electrode thickness 79 μm
ment), and the FEA results are given in Fig. 5. For the convenience of
lp Positive electrode thickness 67 μm comparison, only the cell density was changed in the material parame­
ls Separator thickness 25 μm ters, while the initial and boundary conditions of FEA are left
R Universal gas constant 8.314
J/ unchanged.
(mol•K)
Fig. 5(f) shows that maximum temperature of the battery varies with
εe, n Negative electrode porosity 0.357
the density: When the density is 2500 kg/m3, the maximum temperature
–
εe, sep Separator porosity 1 –
εe, p Positive electrode porosity 0.444 – is 161.73 ◦ C; When the density is 3300 kg/m3, the maximum tempera­
σeff
n Solid phase conductivity, negative electrode 100 S/m ture is 132.22 ◦ C; When the density changes from 2500 kg/m3 to 3300
σeff
p Solid phase conductivity, positive electrode 3.8 S/m kg/m3, the temperature curve shows nonlinear characteristics. The re­
Symmetry factor 0.5
sults show that when the density is larger, the battery temperature is
βi –

4
Z. Yang et al. Journal of Energy Storage 59 (2023) 106504

Fig. 3. Optimal number of elements for FEA.

Fig. 4. Comparison of experiment and FEA. (a) 20 ◦ C-Sensor 1; (b) 20 ◦ C-Sensor 2; (c) 25 ◦ C-Sensor 1; (d) 25 ◦ C-Sensor 2.

Fig. 5. Thermal analysis results of the battery with different densities. (a) ρ = 2500 kg/m3; (b) ρ = 2700 kg/m3; (c) ρ = 2900 kg/m3; (d) ρ = 3100 kg/m3; (e) ρ =
3300 kg/m3; (f)Maximum temperature curve with density.

5
Z. Yang et al. Journal of Energy Storage 59 (2023) 106504

smaller. Although the thermal characteristic of a battery improves with ⎧

increasing density, the relationship between production cost, processing ⎨ E[Q(X) ] = 0
Var[Q(X) ] = σ 2 (13)
difficulty and the thermal characteristics of the battery should be ⎩ ′ ′
Cov[Q(c) , Q(c ) ] = σ2 [R(θ; c, c ) ]
considered in the design process. This example shows the importance of
the material improvement on the research of the thermal runaway
where R is the correlation function between Q(c) and Q(c′ ), and is
problem. Therefore, this subsection will research the influence of more
commonly used as an anisotropic Gaussian function.
material parameters on the temperature field distribution of the battery,
The calculation steps of structural reliability sensitivity based on the
and establish a sample data set for the subsequent reliability analysis.
AK-MCS method are as follows:
In the reliability problem of engineering structure, there are gener­
ally two assumptions about the design parameters: The first is about the
Step 1. The MCS sample data set S is generated according to the joint
correlation between the design parameters; The second is about the
probability density function of the design parameters.
distribution of design parameters. In the first hypothesis, if there is a
Step 2. The initial training sample data set SI is established. Initial
correlation between design parameters, the reliability analysis requires
training samples of the NI group are randomly selected from S, and
a large amount of data, which is difficult to obtain in engineering
the performance function values are calculated.
practice. If the design parameters are independent of each other, the
Step 3. The initial Kriging surrogate model GK(X) is built by SI.
possible correlation between the design parameters can be ignored,
Step 4. The convergence condition of the self-learning process is
which can reduce the computational complexity and cost to some extent.
determined. When minU(X) ≥ 2, the adaptive learning process is
The second hypothesis generally adopts the assumption that design
stopped and Step 5 is performed. Otherwise, an updated sample
parameters either obey or do not obey a probability distribution. In
point in the S is selected by the U learning function and the perfor­
engineering problems, the normal distribution is the most commonly
mance function value is calculated. Then, the new sample point is
used probability distribution. Therefore, this paper assumes that the
added to the SI, and Step 3 is returned.
design parameters obey a normal distribution and are independent of
Step 5. The indicator function value IR(X) of the S is calculated by the
each other. The battery density, specific heat capacity, and thermal
Kriging surrogate model, where the indicator function value can be
conductivity are selected as independent variables, whose mean is ρ =
expressed as:
2903 kg/m3, Cp = 1217 J/kg⋅K, λx = λy = 52.7 W/m3, λz = 0.96 W/m3, {
and the variation coefficient of all parameters is 0.05 [48]. The design of 0 if GK (X) ≤ 0
IR (X) = (14)
experiment module of the ‘Six Sigma Analysis’ in Workbench software is 1 if GK (X) > 0
used to generate 300 groups samples. The FEA results are shown as
Table 4.
Step 6. The reliability and reliability sensitivity are calculated, and
their estimated values can be respectively expressed as
4. Reliability and reliability sensitivity analysis
⎧
⎪
⎪ 1 ∑ N
( )
4.1. Reliability and reliability sensitivity analysis method using the AK- ⎪
⎪ PR ∧ = IR Xj
⎪
⎪ N
⎪
MCS method
j=1
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪ [ ]
⎪
⎨∂P ∧ 1 ∑ N
xji − μxi ( )
(15)
R
In most engineering structural reliability problems, the reliability ⎪ ∂μxi
=
N j=1 σ 2xi
I x
R j
⎪
performance function is generally nonlinear or implicit, therefore a lot ⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪ [(( )2 ) ]
of experiment data are required for the reliability analysis. In order to ⎪
⎪
⎪ ∂ PR ∧ 1 ∑ N
xji − μxi 1 ( )
⎪
solve the problem, many surrogate model methods have been widely ⎪
⎩ ∂σ
xi
=
N σ3
−
xiσ
I x
R j

used for reliability problems in recent years. Among these surrogate

j=1 xi

methods, the adaptive Kriging surrogate model has been widely used
because of its characteristics of unbiased estimation with the smallest
estimated variance. The Kriging surrogate model can be expressed as
follows [49]
GK (X) = FT (X)⋅β + Q(X)
Step 7. The convergence of AK-MCS method is determined. If the
convergence condition is not satisfied, the size of the sample set
should be increased and Steps 3–6 repeated until the convergence
criterion is satisfied.
(12)

where F(X) = [f1(X), f2(X), ⋅⋅⋅, fn(X)]T is the basis function of a random 4.2. Battery reliability assessment and reliability sensitivity analysis
vector X, and provides a global approximate model within the design
space; β = [β1, β2, ⋅⋅⋅, βn]T is the vector of regression coefficients, and is According to the reliability theory, the thermal reliability perfor­
obtained to estimate the known response value; Q(X) is the Gaussian mance function model is expressed as [50]
stochastic process, and the statistical characteristics are expressed as
[49] G(X) = T * − T(X) (16)

where X = [ρ, Cp, λx, λz]T is the material parameters of the lithium-ion
battery, T(X) is the maximum temperature of the battery, and T * is
the maximum temperature threshold of the battery.
Table 4
300 groups samples between material parameters and maximum temperature. The battery reliability is calculated based on Eq. (15) of subsection
4.1, and the result is compared with the result of MCS. The results ob­
Number ρ(kg/ Cp(J/ λx(W/ λz(W/ Maximum temperature
tained from the two methods are RAK = 0.8704 and RMCS = 0.8685,
m3) kg⋅K) m3) m3) (◦ C)
respectively, with a relative error of 0.2188 %. In order to better reflect
1 2512 1400 54.19 0.92 145.93
the influence of battery design parameters on its reliability, the AK-MCS
2 2653 1320 53.38 1.06 146.29
3 3101 1088 55.93 1.08 150.56 method is used to conduct the gradual reliability analysis and the
⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ sensitivity analysis when the mean value of each design parameter
298 3068 1108 48.71 0.82 150.02 change within a given range. The gradual reliability and reliability
299 2967 1124 52.73 1.08 151.93 analysis results are shown in Figs. 6-8.
300 2886 1203 50.2 1.07 147.20
The conclusion from Fig. 6 is as follow: The reliability increases as

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Z. Yang et al. Journal of Energy Storage 59 (2023) 106504

Fig. 6. The gradual reliability curve of lithium-ion battery. (a)density; (b) specific heat capacity; (c) thermal conductivity in x-direction; (d) thermal conductivity in
z-direction.

Fig. 7. The mean sensitivity curve as the parameter change. (a)density; (b) specific heat capacity; (c) thermal conductivity in x-direction; (d) thermal conductivity in
z-direction.

the density increases. When the density reaches 3150 kg/m3, the reli­
ability is stable above 0.99; With the specific heat capacity increasing,
the reliability increases. When the specific heat capacity reaches 1310 J/
kg⋅K, the reliability is stable above 0.98; The thermal conductivity has
little influence on the reliability, and the reliability is generally between
0.86 and 0.87.
Fig. 7 shows the results of the mean value sensitivity analysis. It can
be seen from Fig. 7 that the sensitivity values of the density and the
specific heat capacity are larger, while the sensitivity values of the
thermal conductivity are smaller. The greater the density and the spe­
cific heat capacity, the smaller the sensitivity values of all material pa­
rameters. When the density reaches 3150 kg/m3, the sensitivity value is
0.039 and starts to stabilize. When the specific heat capacity reaches
1310 J/kg⋅K, the sensitivity value is 0.041 and starts to stabilize. The

7
Z. Yang et al.
Fig. 8. The standard deviation sensitivity curve as the design parameter mean
change. (a)density; (b) specific heat capacity; (c) thermal conductivity in x-
direction; (d) thermal conductivity in z-direction.
mean value of the thermal conductivity has little influence on the reli­
ability, and the sensitivity value is generally between 3.99e-5 and 2.5e-
3.
Fig. 8 shows the results of the standard deviation sensitivity analysis.
It can be seen from Fig. 8 that the sensitivity values of the specific heat
capacity, the thermal conductivity in x-direction and the density are
larger, and the sensitivity value of the thermal conductivity in z-direc­
tion is smaller. When the density reaches 3150 kg/m3, the absolute value
of the sensitivity is 2.6e-4 and starts to stabilize. When the specific heat
capacity reaches 1310 J/kg⋅K, the absolute value of the sensitivity is
9.9e-4 and starts to stabilize. The standard deviation of the thermal
conductivity has little influence on the reliability, and the sensitivity
value is generally between 2.99e-9 and 5.1e-4.
5. Conclusion
One of the most effective ways to solve the problems of battery
thermal safety and thermal reliability is to improve the thermal prop­
erties of the battery materials. Taking the 18,650 cylindrical lithium-ion
battery as an example, the AK-MCS method is used to conduct gradient
reliability analysis and sensitivity analysis under a high charge-
discharge rate of the battery, and the following conclusions are drawn:
The density and specific heat capacity have the greatest influence on
battery reliability, followed by thermal conductivity in the x-direction,
while thermal conductivity in the z-direction has the least influence.
When the density is 3150 kg/m3, the reliability reaches 0.993, the mean
sensitivity value is 0.039, and the standard deviation sensitivity value is
2.6e-4. When the specific heat capacity is 1310 J/kg⋅K, the reliability
reaches 0.986, the mean sensitivity value is 0.041, and the standard
deviation sensitivity value is 9.9e-4. It is worth noting that when the
battery density is between 3150 kg/m3 and 3350 kg/m3 and the specific
heat capacity is between 1310 J/kg⋅K and 1430 J/kg⋅K, the changes of
the reliability and reliability sensitivity are not obvious. Therefore, the
battery designer can select the battery materials considering the cost and
processing difficulty. This research provides theoretical guidance and
quantitative basis for understanding of thermal reliability and thermal
safety of lithium-ion batteries. Due to time constraints, this research
only considers the influence of the material parameters on thermal
reliability. In future research, the influence of material parameters on
the reliability of other battery properties will be comprehensively
considered.
8
Journal of Energy Storage 59 (2023) 106504
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Z. Yang, Y. Yan and U. S. Pak conceptualized the study; U. S. Pak and
Y. Yan performed experiment and FEA; Z. Yang performed reliability
analysis and reliability sensitivity analysis; Z. Yang, U. S. Pak, and Y. Yan
reviewed and edited the article. All authors have read and agreed to the
published version of the manuscript.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
No data was used for the research described in the article.
Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful for the support from the National Natural
Science Foundation of China (52172401), and the Fundamental
Research Funds for the Central Universities (N2003022).
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