Rand Rra2662-1

Cultural and technological
change in the future

information environment
Linda Slapakova, Abby Fraser, Megan Hughes,
Maria Chiara Aquilino, Kristin Thue
This research was commissioned by the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) through
the Analysis for Science & Technology Research in Defence (ASTRID) framework. It was supported by
RAND Europe’s Centre for Futures and Foresight Studies (CFFS).
For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA2662-1
About RAND Europe

RAND Europe is a not-for-profit research organisation that helps improve policy and
decision making through research and analysis. To learn more about RAND Europe, visit
www.randeurope.org.
Research Integrity
Our mission to help improve policy and decision making through research and analysis is enabled
through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level
of integrity and ethical behaviour. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective,
and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance
process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through
staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our
research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and
recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure
intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/principles.
RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.
Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif., and Cambridge, UK

© 2024 RAND Corporation
R® is a registered trademark.
Cover: Adobe Stock
Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights

This publication and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of
RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorised posting of this
publication online is prohibited; linking directly to its webpage on rand.org is encouraged.
Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research
products for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit
www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
i
Executive summary
Research context, objectives Key findings

and scope Understanding technological change in
The information environment is an increasingly the GAN information environment
central element of UK Defence activity,1 First, the research team examined existing
anticipated to undergo significant changes that literature and insights from emerging science
present multiple Defence opportunities and and technology (S&T) horizon-scanning to
challenges. These trends include technological capture the technological developments
change and sociocultural developments that anticipated to shape the GAN information
shape how current and emerging technologies environment and assess which will likely have
are developed, adopted and used in society. the most significant impact.
To support UK Defence in contextualising Impactful change is likely in ten technological
the future impact of new and emerging areas: artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology,
technologies, RAND Europe and Frazer Nash extended reality, human-machine interfaces,
Consulting conducted a study examining how information and communication technologies
technological developments in the information (ICTs), advanced materials, sensors, space
environment may shape culture in the technology, quantum technology and
Generation After Next (GAN) timeframe, i.e. encryption, and security, validation and
2035–2050.2 Rather than precisely forecasting privacy-enhancing technologies. Incremental
technological trajectories and their cultural advances in these areas will likely continue
impacts, the study aimed to characterise impacting the information environment
the landscape of technological change in alongside emerging new technologies not yet
the GAN information environment, develop in use (e.g. quantum computing).
a conceptual framework for understanding
the links between technological change and This study identified six technological systems
culture, and apply this framework to an initial worthy of further analysis to help understand
assessment of the cultural implications of the dynamic and interaction between
selected technological developments. technologies in different aspects of the
information environment. These systems
1 The information environment was defined as ‘all informational processes, services, and entities, thus including
informational agents [comprising individuals and organisations] as well as their properties, interactions, and mutual
relations’ (Floridi, 2005).
2 Culture was defined as a ‘shared set of (implicit and explicit) values, ideas, concepts, and rules of behaviour that allow
a social group to function and perpetuate itself. Rather than simply the presence or absence of a particular attribute,
culture is understood as the dynamic and evolving socially constructed reality that exists in the minds of social group
members.’ (Hudelson, 2004).
ii Cultural and technological change in the future information environment
capture six areas of significant technological the cultural impacts of the six technological
change in the GAN information environment: systems identified in the study’s first phase.
automated information systems, virtual
metaverses, augmented and mixed reality, Assessing the cultural impacts of
advanced connectivity, human augmentation technological developments on the future
and information security. information environment
In the study’s third phase, we conducted deep
Conceptualising the impact of technology dives to characterise future trends in the
on culture development and use of the six technological
The study’s second phase focused on systems, and interviewed relevant experts to
conceptualising technology’s impact on culture understand these trends’ cultural implications.
by reviewing existing cultural anthropology and The results showed that each technological
Science and Technology Studies (STS). This system had distinct cultural implications, with
phase drew on existing work in Actor-Network several cross-cutting themes emerging in the
Theory (ANT), determining technology as an analysis:
‘actant’ in cultural change and recognising
• Technological developments are expected
that characterising this role depends on
to drive a changing landscape of cultural
understanding a technology’s intended use,
identities, potentially diminishing the
the intentions behind its development and its
significance of demographic and
user applications and regulatory frameworks.
geographic delineations and elevating
The study conceptualised cultural change
transnational and subnational cultural
as changes in shared societal ideas, values
identities formed through virtual
and behaviours that shape people’s ways of
interactions. Technology may also
being in the world,3 including cultural identities,
increasingly integrate into cultural
behavioural norms and values and perceptual
identities, e.g. hybridising human identity
lenses through which people and communities
through technological enablement and
determine facts about themselves, others
the increased importance of how cultures
and their culture. We identified four
define norms and values relating to
interaction levels between these cultural and
technology use.
technological elements, ranging from an
individual’s understanding of ‘self’ to societal • Technological change is associated with
institutions and domains: individual, micro, shifts in defining and understanding
meso and macro. three cultural concepts: privacy, equity
and accountability. These factors will
To capture these interactions as a coherent
likely come under increasing pressure
narrative, we developed a framework for
in the future information environment
understanding future technologies’ impact on
due to increasing data exploitation for
culture. This comprises four stages (Figure
technological applications, new inequities
0.1), each addressing a different component
in accessing technological tools and
for comprehensively understanding future
obfuscating end-user identity, and thus
technologies’ impact on culture. We applied
responsibility for risks and harms emerging
the framework to an initial exploration of
from technology use. However, some
developments, such as privacy-enhancing
3 Aranzadi (2018).
iii
Figure 0.1 A framework for understanding future technologies’ impact on culture
• Assessment of technology to interrogate its role as an actant in the future information

Technology environment;
as actant • Identify the origins of technology (e.g. who develops the technology), the impact of its use (e.g.
who uses the technology) and the scope of its use (e.g. when and where is the technology used).
• Cultural topography as understanding the cultural landscape of the population of interest;

Cultural
topology • To identify and explore the cultural influences which impact the thinking and behaviour of the
population of interest.
Ecological • Ecological interactions as the loci of interaction between the environment and the technology;
interaction • Identification of points of interaction at the individual, micro, meso and macro-social levels.
Influence or • Amalgamation of all the outputs of the previous stage to consider whether the technologies in
integration question are likely to be integrated into culture, or mediate cultural change.
Source: Frazer Nash Consulting.
technologies, also provide opportunities for to engender sociocultural transformation (e.g.

more effective safeguarding of such norms through digitally-enabled activism), political
and values. regimes or other actors might weaponise
other technologies against social movements,
• New technologies will likely continue
constraining their facilitation of cultural change.
amplifying cognitive biases, affecting
how individuals engage with information As significant uncertainty surrounds the
and exacerbating people’s difficulties in nature and adoption of new and emerging
identifying and understanding facts. In technologies in the 2035–2050 timeframe, it
particular, personalisation of information- is challenging to determine whether advances
related services and content may in the six technological systems will engender
significantly challenge communities’ ability cultural change or whether new technological
to establish common cultural touchpoints realities will integrate into existing cultural
and develop and reproduce them into frameworks. However, several potential areas
collective cultural identities. of considerable cultural change are evident
at different levels of ecological interaction
Finally, across these interactions, new and
between culture and technological systems:
emerging technologies will likely continue
empowering and constraining social • At the personal level (i.e. the ‘self’),
movements contributing to sociocultural technological advances (such as human
change (e.g. through advocacy). While social augmentation) may raise questions about
movements might leverage new technologies human identity and how we understand
iv Cultural and technological change in the future information environment
the biological foundations of human To achieve this, UK Defence should build on

experience. this study’s outputs via:
• At the micro level (e.g. interpersonal • Holistic application of the study’s
and human-machine sociality), tensions conceptual framework through a
between personalising human experiences more in-depth examination of selected
or information flows and defining common technologies;
cultural touchpoints may yield substantial
• Recurrent application of the framework
cultural change. While these will likely
to build a coherent research base on the
benefit human prosperity, they may also
cultural impact of new and emerging
challenge people’s ability to collectively
technologies; and
identify and agree on the nature of physical,
societal, political and economic realities • Framework testing and iteration,
and, thus, culture. incorporating lessons from multiple
studies.
• At the meso level (e.g. urban areas,
humans and the state), technologies Additionally, UK Defence should:
are likely to transfer more interpersonal • Deepen understanding of the cultural
interaction from the physical to the virtual impact of emerging technologies
environment, mediating individuals’ by developing cultural topographies,
interactions with physical spaces and advancing application- or capability-
infrastructure. This shift may challenge centred analysis, and examining historical
the perceived cultural value of physical examples of the cultural impact of
artefacts (e.g. architecture) while technological change.
also changing the culture of physical
• Stay abreast of emerging research on
environments such as cities through
technology-enabled social manipulation
technological integration.
threats and audiences’ (diminishing) ability
• At the macro level (e.g. societal domains to identify and understand facts, enabling
such as education and healthcare), UK Defence to operate effectively in a
substantial cultural effects will more likely changing information environment. UK
be due to the rapid innovative pace than Defence should also track the impact of
specific technological developments. technological change on the formation
Cultural integration of technology may of cultural identities, particularly in public
become more difficult because of societal associations with a national cultural
and institutional limits to absorbing and identity.
adapting to technological change, thereby
• Continue exploring and monitoring cultural
yielding technology-mediated cultural
norms and values around using key
change instead.
emerging technologies and how these
may impact perceptions of acceptable
Implications for UK Defence use within Defence. UK Defence may also
Inherent uncertainty about cultural and benefit from a greater understanding of the
technological developments in the 2035–2050 future dynamics of technology access and
information environment means UK Defence potential inequities and patterns of digital
will require a more refined understanding of the exclusion.
relevant dynamics to navigate them effectively.
v
Table of contents
Executive summary i
Tablesvi
Figuresvii
Abbreviations & Definitions viii
Chapter 1. Introduction 1
1.1. Context 1
1.2. Research objectives and scope 1
1.3. Research approach 2
1.4. Report structure 6
Chapter 2. Technological change and the information environment 8
2.1. Evolving nature of the information environment 8
2.2. Technological developments in the GAN information environment 13
Chapter 3. Understanding the cultural impacts of technological change 19
3.1. Conceptual outline 19
3.2. The framework 20
Chapter 4. Assessing the cultural impacts of technological developments on the
future information environment 28
4.1. Automated information systems 28
4.2. A virtual metaverse 36
4.3. Augmented and mixed reality 44
4.4. Advanced connectivity 49
4.5. Human augmentation 56
4.6. Information security 63
Chapter 5. Conclusions and implications for UK Defence 71
5.1. Summary and discussion of research findings 71
5.2. Implications for UK Defence 74
References 79
vi Cultural and technological change in the future information environment
Tables
Table 1.1 Study research questions 2

Table 2.1 Summary of current trends characterising the information environment 9
Table 2.2 Summary of the selected technological systems 18
Table 4.1 Ecological interactions in automated information systems 35
Table 4.2 Ecological interactions in virtual metaverses 43
Table 4.3 Ecological interactions in augmented and mixed reality 49
Table 4.4 Ecological interactions in advanced connectivity 55
Table 4.5 Ecological interactions in human augmentation 62
Table 4.6 Ecological interactions in information security 70
Table 5.1 Summary of implications of the study findings for UK Defence 74
vii
Figures
Figure 0.1 A framework for understanding future technologies’ impact on culture iii
Figure 1.1 Overview of the research approach 3
Figure 2.1 Conceptual overview of the information environment 9
Figure 3.1 A framework for understanding the impact of future technologies on culture 21
Figure 3.2 Technology as an actant 22
Figure 3.3 A framework for generating a cultural topography 24
Figure 3.4 A framework for identifying ecological interactions 26
Figure 3.5 Determining the influence or integration of technology into culture 27
viii Cultural and technological change in the future information environment
Abbreviations & Definitions
AI Artificial Intelligence
ANT Actor-Network Theory
AR Augmented Reality
ASTRID Analysis for Science and Technology Research in Defence
DSTL Defence Science And Technology Laboratory
GAN Generation After Next
ICT Information and Communication Technology
IoT Internet of Things
MR Mixed Reality
NLP Natural Language Processing
RQ Research Question
S&T Science and Technology
SME Subject matter expert
STS Science and Technology Studies
UK United Kingdom
US United States
VR Virtual Reality
WP Work Package
1
Chapter 1. Introduction
1.1. Context technological advances will likely continue

this trend, with potential shifts in societal
Navigating the information environment is engagement with communication devices
an increasingly central element of Defence and virtual environments and changes in
activity. For example, a recent iteration information threats and other developments.
of Global Strategic Trends highlights that
However, understanding the future information
‘information will become ever more central to
environment requires more than examining
humanity, and conflict’, making information-
technology’s advancing capabilities in isolation.
related activity critical for Defence’s ability
Understanding how individuals, communities
to achieve its strategic and operational
and societies are likely to use and apply future
objectives.4 The information environment
technologies and how this may impact the
will likely change significantly between now
cultural factors shaping human behaviour and
and 2050, presenting multiple opportunities
broader societal dynamics is critical. Thus,
and challenges for Defence. Such changes
Defence must understand how technological
include an anticipated transformation of the
and cultural developments interact to navigate
media landscape with the greater role of
the future information environment effectively.
social media, the diminishing importance of
facts in public discourse, the development of
immersive virtual spaces, increasing digital 1.2. Research objectives and
communication and interaction, and increasing scope
connectivity between devices, objects and
human beings.5 In this context, RAND Europe and Frazer Nash
Consulting conducted a study investigating
Technological innovation plays a critical role how technological developments in the
in this changing context. Digital technologies information environment might shape culture
have already significantly impacted how people in the Generation-After-Next (GAN) timeframe,
consume and engage with information and i.e. 2035–2050. Table 1.1 outlines the study’s
how communication occurs at interpersonal research questions (RQs).
and broader societal levels.6 Future
4 UK Ministry of Defence (2018).

5 OPEN Publications (2023), Kavanagh & Rich (2018).
6 For example, see Rottger & Vedres (2020).
2 Cultural and technological change in the future information environment
Table 1.1 Study research questions
Work package RQs
WP1 RQ1: Which technological developments will likely shape the GAN information
environment?
RQ2: Which technological developments will likely have the most significant impact on
the GAN information environment?
WP2 RQ3: How is culture shaped through the information environment?
WP3 RQ4: How might the identified technological developments shape culture through the
information environment?
RQ5: What overarching implications, threats and opportunities does the analysis
suggest for UK Defence?
Several key definitions shaped this study’s relating to the information environment,
research scope: i.e. developments in how individuals and
• ‘Information environment’: Based on organisations produce, access or consume
existing political and communication- information;
science literature, we defined this as ‘all • ‘Culture’: Based on anthropological
informational processes, services, and research, we defined culture as the
entities, thus including informational dynamic and evolving socially constructed
agents [comprising individuals and reality shared across social group
organisations] as well as their properties, members and mirrored in artefacts in the
interactions, and mutual relations’7; thus, physical environment.9
the ‘information environment’ refers to
the processes through which individuals
are exposed to and engage/interact with 1.3. Research approach
information8; We used a structured multi-method research
• ‘Technological development’: We approach to answer the above RQs, using the
defined this as technological advances three work packages (WPs) shown in Figure 1.1.
7 Floridi (2005).
8 Rottger & Vedres (2020).
9 Hudelson (2004).
3
Figure 1.1 Overview of the research approach
WP2 Culture and the information

WP1 Technology identification (RQ1-2)
environment (RQ3)
Literature review Conceptual framework
Review of RAND's Horizon Scanning database
Literature review
Technology prioritisation
Short-list of technological systems Framework for technology assessment
WP3 Technology assessment and implications for Defence (RQ4-5)
Technology deep dives SME interviews Implications for Defence
Final report
Source: RAND Europe.
1.3.1. WP1 – technology identification via Google Scholar searches using Boolean
search strings (based on keywords linked
We orientated the study’s first phase towards
to the RQs) and snowball searching (i.e.
identifying the technological developments
identifying sources through the selected
most likely to shape the GAN information
sources’ references). We applied inclusion
environment. This phase comprised two
and exclusion criteria to all search results
research activities:
to identify the most relevant studies based
1. Literature review: We reviewed publicly on the source’s relevance, literature type,
available open-source academic and non- source language and publication date.
academic literature to a) characterise We excluded those with limited relevance
trends and developments associated with to the RQs, published in languages other
the GAN information environment and b) than English or before 2012. We reviewed
identify the emerging technologies likely included sources using a structured Excel-
to shape it. We identified relevant literature based data-extraction matrix.
2. Horizon-scanning: We also reviewed 4. Advanced connectivity

the RAND Europe Centre for Futures
5. Human augmentation
and Foresight Studies (CFFS)10 science
and technology (S&T) horizon-scanning 6. Information security.
database to identify additional emerging These systems captured interactions
technological developments. This between the most potentially impactful
horizon-scanning database comprises technological developments for the GAN
the ongoing collection and analysis of information environment. We conceptualised
multifarious sources tracking advances in them as clusters of interconnected
S&T disciplines. To identify developments technologies relevant to various aspects of
relevant to the information environment, we the information environment (e.g. information
reviewed the horizon scanning database access, interpersonal communication and
for the 2020–2023 timeframe and filtered information security).
data by each technological development’s
We selected technological systems rather
relevance to the information environment.
than individual technological developments as
We extracted 258 items and clustered
the unit of analysis for subsequent research
them according to technology type.
phases for several reasons:
We synthesised data from the literature review
1. Analysing technology interactions relative
and horizon-scanning results, developing a
to particular aspects of the information
longlist of 53 technological developments
environment supported a more precise
within ten technology categories (described
analysis of likely cultural impacts.
in Chapter 2). To identify developments with
the most significant potential impact on the 2. Focusing on technological systems
GAN information environment, research team allowed us to consider the emergence of
members and two RAND experts scored each new technologies alongside advances in
technological development on the following each system’s existing technologies.
parameters: a) its likely impact level on the
3. Using technological systems allowed us to
information environment and b) the likelihood
capture specific aspects of the information
its impact materialises within the GAN
environment, enabling the identification
timeframe (2035–2050). This assessment
of different technologies’ potential future
also helped refine the longlist of technological
uses and applications (and thus their
developments and identify the best options
potential impact).
for analysing cultural impacts on the GAN
information environment.
1.3.2. WP2 - culture and the information
Based on the scoring results, we identified six environment
technological systems for further analysis:
The study’s second phase aimed to develop
1. Automated information systems a conceptual framework for assessing
the cultural implications of emerging
2. Virtual metaverses
technologies. This phase was underpinned
3. Mixed and augmented reality by a stock-take of relevant cultural and
societal components and their interactions
10 See https://www.rand.org/randeurope/research/futures-and-foresight-studies.html (as of 6 March 2024)

5
with a future information environment, thus class-based experiences, through concepts

addressing RQ3. We developed the conceptual such as habitus, critical race theory and
framework in two parts: intersectionality. The final conceptual
framework (presented in Chapter 3)
• First, we reviewed academic literature
captured key interactional loci and points
on interactions between the information
of influence between technological change
environment and culture, undertaking
and culture.
a non-systematic review of literature
from social anthropology and Science
and Technology Studies (STS). The
1.3.3. WP3 - technology assessment
review focused on literature, theories The study’s third phase aimed to understand
and ethnographies predicated on the potential cultural impacts of technological
the interaction between technology changes in the GAN information environment
development, knowledge production and (RQ4), applying the assessment framework
sociocultural context. We also examined developed in WP2 to the six selected
the directionality of relationships technological systems identified in WP1.
between technology and culture based
We first undertook deep dives for each of
on Actor-Network Theory (ANT).11 The
the six technological systems using targeted
ANT approach considers knowledge
desk research to review existing research
and technology as actants in knowledge
and information on each system’s key
production, helping conceptualise
characteristics. Guided by the assessment
the relationship between information
framework, the deep dives examined the
environments and culture as symbiotic
following for each technological system:
and bidirectional.
• Its component technologies and their
• Second, based on the literature review,
characteristics;
we identified cultural aspects at different
societal levels (e.g. macro, meso, • Its likely development trends, including
and micro). This process included future priorities and key developers;
disaggregating cultural elements • Its key end users, applications and
associated with a) macro-level institutions, information-environment impacts;
such as global systems, knowledge
• Its regulation landscape, including existing
assemblages and nation-states, b) meso-
regulations, future regulatory directions
level institutions, such as local authorities,
and potential barriers.
workplaces and residences, and c) micro-
level institutions, such as family, social To better characterise relevant technological
networks and individuals. By utilising trends and selected technology clusters’
several focus levels, our conceptual impact, we conducted ten subject-matter-
framework development drew out cultural expert (SME) interviews to validate and
phenomena operating within and between refine the deep-dive insights. We identified
each level. This multi-level approach also interviewees using purposive sampling based
helped examine additional intersections on their expertise and its alignment with the
of interest, such as gender, race and study topic. Interviews lasted 60–90 minutes
11 Lezaun (2017) and Sayes (2014).

and followed a semi-structured format based peer-reviewed studies and non-academic

on an interview protocol structured according sources in our literature review, e.g.
to the assessment framework. Interviewees expert opinion, government reports and
included two experts from non-governmental news articles. Readers should consider
and international organisations, five from these methodological limitations when
academia, and three from non-academic interpreting the study’s findings. Chapter
research institutes. We analysed interviews 5 discusses research avenues for building
using an inductive thematic approach. on, refining and validating this report’s
findings.
We conducted a final internal analysis to
identify and structure the study’s conclusions • A focus on conceptual insights relating
and implications for UK Defence. This analysis to the cultural impact of emerging
informed this final technical report, subject to technologies: We undertook this study as
technical Quality Assurance from RAND, Frazer a preliminary exploration of the potential
Nash and the ASTRID Technical Lead. cultural implications of technological
change in the information environment.
1.3.4. Caveats and limitations We maintained a conceptual approach
to analysing the cultural implications of
This study’s activities and findings are
different technological systems to enable a
subject to several caveats, limitations and
broad overview of potential impacts. Thus,
assumptions:
our analysis focused on the conceptual
• Future uncertainty: This study aimed elements of culture (e.g. norms and values)
to identify potential developments in rather than technological systems’ impact
technological innovation and their impacts on a specific culture (e.g. the UK’s culture).
on the information environment and While this approach provides a preliminary
culture up to 2050. Given the pace of insight into the relationship between
technological change and the inherent technological change in the information
uncertainty surrounding new technologies’ environment and culture, future research
future use and performance, this study’s might benefit from a targeted approach to
findings are not specific predictions of specific cultures informed by developing
future technology advances and scenarios. cultural topographies. Chapter 5 discusses
Instead, they offer insights into key trends this recommendation for further research
and potential futures associated with the in more detail.
cultural impacts of technological change.
• Literature review and interview 1.4. Report structure
constraints: This study predominantly
relied on consolidating insights from Beyond this introductory chapter, this report
existing literature and SMEs’ informed comprises four additional chapters:
opinions. However, the study’s budgetary • Chapter 2 discusses findings relating to
and timeline constraints limited the RQs 1 and 2, beginning with a contextual
scope of these activities; we could only description of the current information
review a limited amount of literature and environment and trends and then outlining
interview a limited number of SMEs. To the technological change areas expected to
expand the potential future trends and shape it from 2035 to 2050;
scenarios we could explore, we included
7
• Chapter 3 presents findings relating to

RQ3, discussing the relationship between
technological change and culture and
outlining the framework for assessing
the cultural impact of technological
developments in the GAN information
environment;
• Chapter 4 focuses on RQ4, describing the
likely implications of the six technological
systems for the GAN information
environment and culture;
• Chapter 5 concludes the report by
summarising the research findings and
outlining the key implications for UK
Defence (RQ5).
Chapter 2. Technological change and the

information environment
This chapter gives an overview of the broader physical and virtual manifestations shaped by
ecosystem of technological change in the human cognitive abilities.12 Research typically
GAN information environment, presenting the conceptualises the information environment
research findings relating to RQ1 and RQ2: according to three dimensions:
• RQ1: Which technological developments • The physical dimension refers to the
will likely shape the GAN information information environment’s material
environment? characteristics, e.g. the infrastructure
facilitating connectivity and information
• RQ2: Which technological developments
processing and the technological tools/
will likely impact the GAN information
machines facilitating communication;
environment the most?
• The virtual dimension encompasses how
The chapter begins with a contextual
information is communicated virtually
discussion of the different elements and
and exchanged interpersonally or across
dynamics of the information environment. It
society;
then presents the project’s findings on the areas
of technological change most likely to shape • The cognitive dimension refers to human
this in the future. Finally, the chapter reflects cognitive abilities and factors that impact
on the cross-cutting dynamics of technological how humans perceive information and
change in the GAN information environment, translate it into behaviour, including social,
drawing chiefly on the literature review and cultural, linguistic and psychological
horizon scanning conducted in WP1. elements of human cognition and
behaviour.
2.1. Evolving nature of the These dimensions influence five critical
information environment processes in the information environment (see
Figure 2.1 below): a) how individuals, groups
The information environment consists of the and broader society are exposed to information
processes through which individuals, groups (including via the internet), b) how they
and society are exposed to, store and consume consume it, c) how they process and use it for
information and use it for decision-making decision-making, d) how they communicate it
and communication. These processes yield with others and d) how they collect and store it.
12 Government Accountability Office (2023), OPEN Publications (2023).

9
Figure 2.1 Conceptual overview of the information environment
Physical
dimension
Information exposure
(incl. connectivity)
Information consumption
(e.g. news)
Virtual The information Human cognition and

dimension
environment decision-making
Inter-personal and human-

machine communication
Data and information

Cognitive collection and storage
dimension
Source: RAND Europe literature analysis.
Various trends define the present-day information environment across these dimensions,
summarised in Table 2.1 and described below.
Table 2.1 Summary of current trends characterising the information environment
Dimension Key trends
Physical • Increased numbers of interconnected devices, driven by growing demand for

connectivity, data and related services;
• A shift in the device types used for communication and information consumption
from fixed devices (e.g. desktop computers) to highly mobile sensors and devices
(e.g. smartphones);
• The increasing importance of space technology, space-based and space-enabled
services in the information environment;
• Increasing geographic and demographic divides in information exposure and
consumption patterns via access to connectivity and other services.
Virtual • Increases in the scale, speed and access of information diffusion via internet-enabled
platforms and services;
• The expansion of the information environment’s virtual dimension as augmented,
mixed and virtual reality (AR, MR and VR) technologies mature;
• Increasing primacy of social media over traditional news as the leading news and
information source;
• Amplification of ‘truth decay’, i.e. the declining role of facts and systematic analysis
in public discourse.
Dimension Key trends
Cognitive • Exacerbation of the cognitive biases shaping people’s interpretation of information,

e.g. technological characteristics that amplify echo chambers and information-filter
bubbles;
• Increasing informational accessibility through digital and social media – raising the
risk of information overload;
• Increasing polarisation in public discourse, particularly about political issues.
2.1.1. Physical dimension phone, smartphones are also becoming the

Technological innovation has significantly primary avenue for reading news.17 This trend
evolved the information environment’s physical correlates with a global trend towards social
dimension in recent decades. One key trend media and messaging applications as the
is the increasing number of interconnected preferred source of news and information,
devices, driven by a growing demand for which is expected to continue growing.18
connectivity, data and related services.13 Moreover, technological innovation has
The rising number of devices embedded with extended the information infrastructure
sensing capabilities and connected with other into the space domain, increasing the role
devices via the internet is commonly known as of space-based or space-enabled services
the Internet of Things (IoT), whose exponential in the information environment.19 Satellite
growth was described as ‘potentially amongst systems now play a critical role in enabling
the most significant disruptive technologies of global telecommunications via satellite
the 21st century’.14 Object connectivity will likely communications, positioning-navigation-
continue increasing exponentially, alongside timing and other services.20 This infrastructure
IoT’s pervasiveness in home, work and social complements other connectivity technologies,
environments and the rapid expansion of including undersea infrastructure, mobile
internet traffic.15 telephony and land-based copper and fibre
The device types used for communication are cabling. As Section 2.2 explores, the space
also changing, moving away from fixed devices domain’s future importance for providing
(e.g. desktop computers) to highly mobile services such as connectivity will likely
sensors and devices such as smartphones.16 increase, facilitated by growing demand and
With an increasing proportion of internet users supply-side enablers. These include particularly
exclusively accessing the internet via a mobile the decreasing cost of access to space, which
13 Alavi et al. (2018), Chin et al. (2019).

14 Chin et al. (2019:46).
15 OPEN Publications (2023).
17 Newman et al. (2019), GSMA (2019).
18 Newman et al. (2019), Rottger & Vedres (2020).
19 Black et al. (2022).
20 Black et al. (2022).
11
has reduced cost-related barriers to access for improved and expanded internet coverage
many space-enabled services. has facilitated information diffusion ‘at an
unprecedented scale’, broadening any single
Alongside these cross-cutting trends are
person’s information dissemination reach and
several emerging divides in how populations
drastically increasing the speed of information
engage with such physical infrastructure
exchange across geographic boundaries.24 The
and associated information exposure. Firstly,
proliferation of mobile communication devices
research suggests increasing geographic
has subsequently facilitated the rapid growth of
divides in global information exposure and
online social platforms such as Facebook and
consumption patterns. These divides are
Twitter, generating a social media landscape
chiefly significant differences in internet
that continues rapidly evolving and developing,
access between the Global North and Global
e.g. with the recent rise of TikTok.25
South, but also cultural differences in patterns
of media consumption (e.g. observable In tandem, social media has steadily replaced
differences in what media consumers most traditional news media as the primary
rely on in different countries).21 Secondly, source of news and information, changing
differences in digital technology engagement how individuals engage with print, digital
have also driven demographic divides, and social media.26 This development is
particularly intergenerational differences in strongly linked to greater reliance on digital
how people access and consume information. technologies, as discussed above, but also
Younger generations rely more on digital and reflects the media ecosystem’s shift towards
social media for news consumption, while a 24-hour news cycle and the increased
older generations rely on TV, radio and print.22 number and diversity of news organisations
Moreover, research suggests that younger competing for consumers’ attention.27 The
people are less identified with and loyal to emergence of new social media platforms
news brands than older generations.23 (e.g. TikTok), the changing role of established
ones (e.g. Facebook), and the rapid evolution
2.1.2. Virtual dimension of the overall social media landscape have
also shaped information consumption and
The information infrastructure’s evolving
communication behaviours.28
nature has yielded several trends in the
information environment’s virtual dimension, Increasing reliance on social media for news
primarily affecting information diffusion consumption and changes in the role of
and consumption patterns through virtual traditional media have also driven changes
communication channels. By enabling in public discourse and the information types
multiple virtual communication types, individuals consume. Previous RAND research

22 Newman et al. (2019), Newman et al. (2022).
23 Newman et al. (2019).
24 Rottger & Vedres (2020, p. 21).
25 Rottger & Vedres (2020), Ofcom (2023).
27 Kavanagh & Rich (2018).
highlighted how the changing commercial • Growing difficulties in identifying

pressures on news organisations led to disinformation as actors utilise difficult-
prioritising commentary over investigative to-verify content blurring the line between
journalism, contributing to a trend known truth and fiction.34
as ‘truth decay’, a term describing the rising
Alongside the proliferation and sophistication
disagreement about facts and data analysis,
of information and communication
an increasingly blurred line between opinion
technologies (ICTs), the information
and fact in public discourse, the growing
environment’s virtual dimension is rapidly
volume and influence of opinion over facts,
evolving as augmented, mixed and virtual
and declining trust in traditional media and
reality (AR, MR and VR) technologies mature.
information sources.29
The advent of AR, MR and VR communication
The evolving nature of public discourse is is typically discussed relative to the emergence
closely linked with changes in information of what is referred to as the ‘metaverse’: virtual
threats, particularly mis-and-disinformation. realities facilitating real-time interaction in
Research has drawn mixed conclusions on a fully immersive virtual world. Though the
how significantly mis-and-disinformation development of a fully-fledged metaverse is
threats have grown and impacted public nascent, immersive games and platforms
attitudes and behaviours in recent years, facilitating social interaction within a virtual
particularly with the rise of social media.30 setting have already begun entering the
Though some researchers suggest concerns market.35 The trend towards using AR, MR
about the scale and impact of misinformation and VR technologies to augment and enhance
have been overstated,31 others have social interaction is expected to continue,
documented mis-and-disinformation’s growing with the technology growing in variety and
threats, particularly on social media. Examples importance across sectors.36 Chapter 4
include: explores this trend further.
• The amplifying effect of social media
channels and social media platforms’
2.1.3. Cognitive dimension
algorithmic design on the diffusion of false In addition to the changing media landscape,
information32; broader sociocultural developments have
exacerbated the cognitive biases shaping
• The significant discourse generated by
people’s interpretations of information. Such
social media bots around significant
biases relate to cognitive processes known as
political events, such as the 2016 US
motivated reasoning, whereby a person’s desire
Presidential Elections33; and
for a particular conclusion affects how they

32 Vosoughi et al. (2018), Garcia-Camargo & Bradshaw (2021).
33 Bessi and Ferrara (2016).
34 Garcia-Camargo & Bradshaw (2021).
35 Dwivedi et al. (2022).
36 NATO Science and Technology Organization (2023).
13
process information. Examples of motivated exacerbates the information environment’s

reasoning include people avoiding or engaging cognitive dimension.40
in a biased manner with information likely to
At the interpersonal and societal
challenge them or selectively engaging with
level, increasing cognitive biases and
information to enable a (perceived) normatively
technologically-driven changes in digital
correct conclusion or satisfy social goals.37 For
and social media (particularly social media
example, individuals may interpret information
algorithms) generate increasing polarisation
to match their beliefs by seeking information
and social discord, potentially raising the
conforming to their attitudes, beliefs and
potency of mis-and-disinformation. For
behaviours. Based on the media landscape’s
example, research on the dynamics of online
changing, selective exposure suggests
discourse around the 2016 US Presidential
that individuals’ information environments
Election showed that information is primarily
are inherently biased towards information
exchanged online between individuals
consistent with their existing opinions and
already sharing similar political beliefs,
beliefs.38 Two concepts frequently associated
tending to polarise political discourse.41
with these biases and the current information
While this does not necessarily extend to
environment include a) echo chambers, i.e.
other areas of discourse, it reflects concerns
the tendency in social media networks for
about how cognitive biases enable mis-and-
people to expose one another to information
disinformation. The behavioural impacts of
reinforcing the networks’ prevailing attitudes,
mis-and-disinformation are understudied,
and b) filter bubbles, i.e. selective informational
but there are indications that disinformation
exposure based on social media algorithms.
is ‘alarmingly more likely to be noticed and
From a technological viewpoint, the shared’ in today’s information environment.42
increasing number of interconnected data-
generating devices and greater informational 2.2. Technological developments
accessibility via digital and social media also
drive a greater risk of information overload,
in the GAN information
potentially increasing the effect of cognitive environment
biases shaping how individuals access and Emerging technologies can impact information
process information.39 Social and political access, consumption, storage, communication
polarisation and increased competing and other information-related processes.
demands on the education system – which Those of particular concern in the current
is consequently struggling to train individuals context include ICTs, technologies facilitating
in understanding and evaluating the quality connectivity between and among objects and
of the information they interact with – also humans, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and space
technology. Incremental advances in these

41 Barbera et al. (2015).
42 Vosoughi et al (2018) and White (2018) in OPEN Publications (2023:20).
technologies will likely continue impacting the • Biotechnology: Though less often
information environment alongside emergent associated with the future information
technologies not yet in use. environment, several anticipated
biotechnology advances relate to how
Characterising the technological features of
individuals store, process and analyse
the GAN information environment, the research
information. Applying biotechnology to
team identified ten categories of technological
data storage raises the possibility of data
advances, each comprising an array of new
stored as DNA sequences, facilitating the
and maturing technological developments.
high-density storage of large quantities
These ten categories are:
of information and removing the need for
• AI: AI technologies already provide physically large and costly data-storage
significant risks and opportunities in facilities in the future.48 There has also
the current information environment,43 been a growing interest in cognitive
featuring several future high-impact biotechnology, i.e. technology aiming
development areas. AI development will to enhance human physiology through
likely progress from narrow to broad biophysical, biochemical or bioengineered
capabilities, e.g. expansive AI knowledge means, optimising human abilities to think,
and the ability to navigate diverse sense, coordinate and act upon external
scenarios in uncertain conditions.44 This stimuli.49 Biotechnology also intersects
trajectory mirrors the development of with advances in human-machine teaming,
Artificial General Intelligence from current discussed further below.
technologies considered Artificial Narrow
• Extended reality: As noted earlier, AR,
Intelligence, though this is unlikely to
MR and VR technologies will likely
occur in the GAN timeframe.45 More
significantly extend the information
incremental, continuous advances are
environment’s virtual dimension by
likely in AI techniques such as artificial
facilitating more immersive digital
neural networks, natural language
interactions, conceptualised as ‘extended
processing, computer vision, unsupervised
reality’; this encompasses a spectrum
machine learning and deep reinforcement
of digitally-augmented AR experiences
learning.46 Advances in generative AI (i.e.
that blend digital content with physical
AI technologies able to generate text,
realities to create fully immersive virtual
images and other media content) are
environments. Critical future extended-
particularly relevant to the information
reality technological advances include real-
environment, alongside applications such
time holography (i.e. digital representations
as autonomous cyber defence.47
of humans or physical objects in a virtual
43 Rottger & Vedres (2020), OPEN Publications (2023), GAO (2023).

44 Martinez-Plumed et al. (2021).
45 McLean et al. (2023).
47 Marr (2023a), Lohn et al. (2023).
48 Trafton (2021).
49 Johns Hopkins University & Imperial College London (2021).
15
environment)50 and neural rendering (i.e. iterations of 5G and 6G), cloud computing,
realistic digital rendering of humans in antennae technologies, IoT expansion,
place of computer-generated avatars),51 next-generation semiconductors and
interactive AR applications (e.g. AR blockchain application for information
embedded into wearable devices such as processing systems.55 Advances in
contact lenses, mirrors and windshields),52 neuromorphic computing intersect ICTs
and fully-immersive environments and AI, i.e. computers with brain-like
facilitating real-time virtual interaction. architectures and advanced properties
compared to von Neumann computers,
• Human-machine interfaces: As AI
thus more suitable for AI and machine
advances expand and increase autonomy
learning applications.56 Among more
levels, developments in human-machine
disruptive concepts, experts suggest
interfaces are expected to facilitate
the potential for developing a human
communication and information transfer
application programming interface (API),
between humans and machines. The
i.e. a programme to ‘store and enforce the
latter includes brain-machine interfaces,
rules people set about what is allowed to
wearable devices facilitating machine
come into their awareness, what takes
interaction through movement or virtual
up their time and what information is
assistance to the user, and haptic and
shared about their activities.’57 In addition,
social-touch technology (i.e. social
new data-storage concepts will likely
touch between humans and artificial
materialise from exploring new materials
technology-mediated social agents).53
and techniques to enhance data-storage
Research suggests that advances in
capacity and density, e.g. nanophotonics
human-machine teaming may translate
and 5D optics.58
to technologies facilitating new modes
of technology-assisted interpersonal • Advanced materials: Like biotechnology,
communication and interaction, such as advanced materials have few but
brain-to-brain communication.54 relevant applications in the future
information environment. Anticipated GAN
• ICTs: Future advances in ICTs include
developments include next-generation
progress in contemporary technologies
electronics that leverage materials like
facilitating connectivity and more disruptive
silicon and graphene to provide high-
novel ICT concepts. The former includes
performance, high-speed and higher-
advanced wireless networks (e.g. future
capacity data storage and information
50 Andrews (2020).
51 World Economic Forum (2022).
52 Future Business Tech (2023).
53 Ofcom (2021), Day (2021).
54 Binnendijk et al. (2020).
55 McKinsey & Company (2022), Duncan (2022).
56 Schuman et al. (2022).
57 Pew Research Center (2022a).
58 See, for example, Stokel-Walker (2021), Gu et al. (2014).
processing.59 There is also growing interest technological sophistication of satellite

in stretchable electronics and smart technologies.63 Future advances may
fabrics, i.e. materials enabling advanced include the sophistication of small
wearable technologies facilitating data satellite technologies, mega-constellations
collection, particularly about human (large constellations of small satellites
behaviour and physiology.60 facilitating global connectivity), and deep-
space communication technologies.64
• Sensors: Advances in sensor technologies
These and other space technologies
are a vital area enabling innovation in a
will likely support global connectivity
broad range of technological capabilities.
provision, including rural and remote
For example, advances in sensor
locations, and provide high-quality data
technologies enable innovation in mobile
to multiple data-driven sectors (e.g.
devices and AR technologies and the IoT’s
transport) through Earth Observation.65
anticipated expansion. Such innovation
includes advances in Light Detection • Quantum technology and encryption:
and Ranging (LiDAR) technologies that There is considerable debate about the
improve object recognition by enhancing future impact of quantum computing,
the quality and range of sensor-captured quantum communication and other
data for devices such as augmented reality quantum technologies, despite the
headsets.61 The potential proliferation uncertain development timeline
of advanced sensors also links to surrounding quantum technology
the emergence of persistent sensing applications. Quantum technology
through wireless sensor networks, i.e. the applications promise significant potential
continuous surveillance and monitoring of impacts on the information environment,
defined geographic areas.62 including novel communication
infrastructures (i.e. a quantum internet),
• Space technology: Products and services
advanced data storage capabilities (i.e.
provided through space technology
a quantum memory), and quantum
(particularly satellites) already play
computers’ possible disruption of current
an essential role in connectivity and
encryption systems.66
communication. Space-enabled services
are likely to significantly expand during • Security, validation and privacy-
the GAN timeframe due to increasing enhancing technologies: The future
demand for high-bandwidth, low-latency information environment is associated
persistent connectivity, decreasing with increased concern about privacy
space-access costs, and the increasing risks and security threats, i.e. due to the
59 See, for example, University of Cambridge (2021a), Mircea (2021).

60 See, for example, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale De Lausanne (2020), Loke et al. (2021).
61 See, for example, Pohang University of Science & Technology (2022), University of Cambridge (2021b).
62 Matin & Islam (2012).
63 Ofcom (2021).
64 Ofcom (2021), Black et al. (2022), Macquarie University (2020).
65 Ofcom (2021), Black et al. (2022).
66 Beshaj et al. (2022).
17
increased numbers of and connectivity information environment’s future evolution

between devices with limited cybersecurity depends on considering broader trends
safeguards.67 These concerns are in continuous technology development
expected to drive technological innovation rather than focusing on new technological
towards improved information security, developments in isolation.
end-user privacy and communication
• Second, it is likely that some technologies
validation, e.g. data-removal devices and
relevant to the information environment
advanced encryption methods such as
will enable advances across multiple areas.
post-quantum encryption.68 In addition,
For example, AI advances will likely enable
cybersecurity AI applications might
the development of advanced information
include reliable methods for detecting
security solutions and drive progress in
AI-manipulated content in the future (e.g.
extended reality in conjunction with other
‘deep fake’ images and videos).69
enabling technologies. Understanding
Our analysis of the above technological these technologies’ applications and
developments indicates several cross-cutting interactions with other technologies is
trends in technological change dynamics in the therefore critical, as their impacts may
GAN information environment: vary across different dimensions of the
information environment.
• First, future change will likely include a
combination of incremental advances in Based on these considerations, the research
key technological areas already shaping team identified six technological systems to
today’s information environment (e.g. AI explore the cultural impacts of technological
techniques) alongside novel and potentially innovation further, as summarised in Table 2.2
more disruptive concepts (e.g. quantum and detailed in Chapter 4.
computing). Therefore, understanding the

68 See, for example, Hemsworth (2020), Choi (2021).
69 See, for example, Ruhr-University Bochum (2020).
Table 2.2 Summary of the selected technological systems
Technological
Description
system
Automated Automated information systems refer to the automation of information-related

information processes, particularly content-generation and decision-making. They are chiefly
systems enabled by advanced AI technologies, e.g. generative AI.
Virtual A virtual metaverse comprises digital environments and applications that

metaverses provide end users with a fully-immersive or simulated reality. This includes, for
example, applications facilitating immersive digital interpersonal communication
through digital twins (e.g. virtual models that accurately reflect physical objects
or individuals).
Mixed and Mixed and augmented realities are technology-enabled experiences that blend
augmented physical and digital realities by imposing computer-generated elements onto end
reality users’ physical experiences. They include advanced AR and MR software and
new hardware applications, such as AR/MR-enabled glasses, contact lenses or
windshields.
Advanced Advanced connectivity encompasses developments facilitating the internet’s

connectivity continued expansion as a ‘global connector’ and growing human and object
connectivity, creating an increasingly interconnected communication network
embedded into the physical world. Advanced connectivity includes, for example,
developing low-power/wide-area networks, next-generation WiFi and next-
generation cellular protocols.
Human Human augmentation refers to technologically-enabled improvements in

augmentation humans’ physical, mental and cognitive capabilities, particularly capabilities
impacting how individuals perceive, access and process information. This
involves technologies such as wearables devices and stretchable electronics,
allowing people to access, process or interpret larger quantities of information
more quickly and effectively.
Information Information security encompasses technological applications to protect and

security safeguard information, including encrypting communications and detecting
harmful or malign information. Information security includes new technological
solutions for detecting advanced information threats, encryption and privacy
safeguards.
19
Chapter 3. Understanding the cultural impacts

of technological change
This chapter presents a framework for to fellow members of the same population.71
understanding future technologies’ cultural Therefore, culture guides an individual through
impacts, drawing on existing literature on the vast breadth of the living world so that
the relationship between technology and their experience of its social and natural
culture (RQ3). We developed the framework particularities is similar to others sharing
to facilitate an analysis of potential impacts the same culture.72 This shared experience
of technological systems (see Chapter 2) on promotes congruence between people’s lived
culture, and to support future UK Defence work experiences. However, culture is not just
on understanding the cultural implications of reproduced socially but embedded in larger
technological developments. The first section population-based institutions, which owe
introduces the framework’s underpinning their creation to the shared ideas, values and
concepts, while the second section details the behaviours that led to their development.73
framework and its constituent elements. Importantly, culture does not just exist
homogeneously at the nation-state and
3.1. Conceptual outline population level. Instead, cultures exist across
all types of human groupings.74 Therefore,
Several concepts must be defined to generate approaches to understanding culture must
a framework for understanding the impact consider the vast spectrum and variation in
of future technologies on culture. First, we beliefs, practices and identities across human
establish what culture means, how it shapes populations.75
human behaviours, and how humans and
technologies shape it. Secondly, we consider the 3.1.2. Technology
concept of technology relative to human culture.
From an anthropological perspective,
technology can be understood as the tool
3.1.1. Culture
society uses to support a particular functional
Culture comprises a shared set of ideas, values role.76 Anthropological approaches to
and behaviours that shape people’s ways of technology range from investigations into
being,70 defining how humans interpret and the role of tools during hominin evolution to
organise the living world in a way common social anthropological studies of technology’s
70 Aranzadi (2018).
71 Aranzadi (2018).
72 Banwell et al. (2013), Vanderburg (1985).
73 Vanderburg (1985).
74 Aranzadi (2018).
75 Aranzadi (2018).
impact on lived experiences. However, all Regarding technology change, ANT posits
such approaches understand technologies that technological developments result from
through their role of supporting the practices humans’ changing value judgements about
underpinning society’s functioning.77 Technology what each society considers necessary for
includes hardware (e.g. tools, machines and its continued functioning.84 For example, the
infrastructure) and software (e.g. concepts, telephone’s development fulfilled a need for
theories and models)78 and performs the actions verbal communication across large distances
human societies depend on to function. Thus, in a society where writing was the only long-
development of a technology is inextricably distance communication available.85 Given the
bound to its intended role. Since technologies telephone’s functional importance to human
mediate the relationships between humans and societies, it can also be understood as a vital
their societal characteristics, their existence societal technique, becoming a fundamental
depends on their intended function as an component of human social ecology.
intermediary.79 Thus, telephones became a technological
cornerstone for subsequent developments
Recognition of this role underpins the
(e.g. smartphones, video conferencing and
theoretical approaches to technology that
social media). All such developments and their
Science and Technology Studies (STS) pursue,
current use depend on telephones facilitating
in which Actor-Network Theory (ANT) is a
long-distance verbal communication.
dominant theory for understanding the societal
role of technology.80 ANT holds that non-human
elements (including technologies) are required 3.2. The framework
for human society’s formation and functioning,
We integrated the above concepts into
working alongside culture to stabilise the
a framework to guide our exploration of
collective human experience.81 ANT refers to
culture and technology’s roles in the future
such non-human entities as ‘actants’. Since
information environment (Figure 3.1). This
technologies are designed to perform functions
framework comprises four stages, each
deemed valuable by those who develop them,82
representing a different component necessary
they always exist to serve a purpose, one that
for comprehensively understanding the impact
is repeated with each use of the technology. As
of future technologies on culture. We outline
such, technologies can be understood as the
the rationale for each stage and describe its
locus of all decisions about their creation and
practical application.
intended use.83
77 Lezaun (2017).
80 Lezaun (2017), Sayes (2014).
81 Sayes (2014).
82 Sayes (2014).
83 Sayes (2014).
84 Sayes (2014).
21
Figure 3.1 A framework for understanding the impact of future technologies on culture
• Assessment of technology to interrogate its role as an actant in the future information

Technology environment;
as actant • Identify the origins of technology (e.g. who develops the technology), the impact of its use (e.g.
who uses the technology) and the scope of its use (e.g. when and where is the technology used).
• Cultural topography as understanding the cultural landscape of the population of interest;

Cultural
topology • To identify and explore the cultural influences which impact the thinking and behaviour of the
population of interest.
Ecological • Ecological interactions as the loci of interaction between the environment and the technology;
interaction • Identification of points of interaction at the individual, micro, meso and macro-social levels.
Influence or • Amalgamation of all the outputs of the previous stage to consider whether the technologies in
integration question are likely to be integrated into culture, or mediate cultural change.
3.2.1. Stage 1: Understanding technology technology’s intended use. ANT asserts the
as an actant need to explore the technological components
most salient to understanding a technology’s
The first stage of this framework seeks
role as an actant. We can broadly divide these
to understand a particular technology by
components into who developed it, who uses it
contextualising its origins, scope and potential
and who regulates it (see Figure 3.2 below).
impact, enabling a better inference of the
Figure 3.2 Technology as an actant
What (technologies/ideas) is it based upon?
Who develops it What do they intend for its use?
How do they diffuse the information?
How do users learn it?
What is the
technology? Who uses it How do users use it?
How does it shape users' actions?
Is its use commensurate with legal

regulations?
Who regulates it Is its use commensurate with ethics?
Does the technology accommodate

the current legislative environment?
ANT’s principle that actants fulfil the role development process, with the physical tools
of ‘gathering actors from other times and and technical theories utilised essentially
spaces’ helps us understand a technology’s co-producing technological development.87
development,86 viewing it as a product of Therefore, we should consider the following
the developers’ past actions and decision- questions to understand developers’ roles in
making. Thus, understanding a technology’s shaping technology:
intended use depends on identifying the
• What technologies/ideas is the technology
intentions behind its development. However,
based on?
decisions and value judgements made during
development are not always explicit and • What is the developer’s intended use for
conscious. Indeed, the social construction of the technology?
technological development and knowledge • How do the developers diffuse information
production significantly shapes the for its use?
86 Sayes (2014).
87 Sovacool and Hess (2017).
23
The second component to understanding technologies, their proprietary nature

technology as an actant concerns how a person may confuse understanding of who the
uses it. Understanding technology use can help developers are and their agency to control
better understand how technologies mediate their technology’s distribution and use. Thus,
relationships between humans and other social it is best to understand developers as the
or structural societal components.88 Even when individuals who created the technology.
developers intend particular uses for technology, Indeed, the nuances around privatised
the realities may vary considerably.89 As such, technological development pose interesting
the following questions are posed to generate ecological questions relevant to the future
a more comprehensive understanding of information environment.
technology’s use in action:
A comprehensive evaluation of likely
• How do users learn to use the technology? technologies in the future information
environment offers a deeper understanding
• How do users use the technology?
of the theories and practices they derive from,
• In what ways does the technology shape how they translate into everyday use, and how
the users’ actions? they fit into a nation-state’s broader regulatory
The final component to consider when landscape.
exploring technology as an actant is how it
and its use are regulated, i.e. its legitimisation 3.2.2. Stage 2: Generating a cultural
at the macro-social level. Regulations topography
and standards around a technology’s use The second stage of this framework focused
also influence its development.90 Most on understanding the culture of interest.
development occurs per these standards, but While cultures tend to be considered at the
there is no guarantee. We asked the following nation-state level, culture can be present at
questions to understand how technologies fit any level of human interaction. Therefore, it is
into the regulatory landscape: essential that any studies into cultural impact
• Is the technology’s use commensurate with precisely define the culture of focus.91 This
legal recommendations? stage is informed by the Cultural Topography
Analytical Framework, developed to assess
• Is the technology’s use commensurate with the sociocultural influences that shape
ethical usage? policy decision-making, informs this stage.92
• Does the technology accommodate the The stage aims to identify and explore the
current legislative environment? cultural influences impacting the population
of interest’s thinking and behaviour, focusing
Notably, the above questions take a high-
specifically on the role of identity, norms,
level approach to defining a user versus
values and perceptual lens93 (Figure 3.3).
a developer. For many contemporary
89 Maxigas (2017).
90 Sovacool and Hess (2017).
91 Crossley (2015).
92 Johnson and Maines (2018).
Figure 3.3 A framework for generating a cultural topography
Population of interest
Who are you wanting to understand?
What is the cultural identity?
How does this population Is this identity based on How does this shape role
identify itself? demographic characteristics? and status?
What norms does this culture hold?
What are the accepted, expected or Are these norms explicit, implicit,
customary behaviours? prescriptive or proscriptive?
What does this culture value?
What does this culture consider Can material Are these sacred or
desirable, proper and good? possessions be valued? secular?
Perceptual lens
How do individuals and society determine

'facts' about themselves and others? Is this constant and ubiquitous?
‘Cultural identity’ refers to how a population also operate hierarchically, with some more
determines the character traits distinguishing valued than others.
its members from those outside the
‘Norms’ refer to a group’s accepted, expected
population. These identities can derive from the
or customary behaviours95 and can influence
population’s demographic characteristics or
behaviours within a population. Non-
other experiential facets it considers valuable
adherence to norms often results in negative
for self-identification.94 Identity metrics can

25
social consequences, supporting their with technology, when they occur and
importance in mediating behaviours. Thus, how they might impact the individual. The
it is vital to understand culturally mediated framework proposes four interaction levels
behaviours for which non-adherence may be for identifying these parameters: self, micro,
socially sanctioned. meso and macro (see Figure 3.4 below). The
ecological framework outlines these interactive
‘Values’ are culturally transmitted beliefs
possibilities. However, it is not exhaustive,
about what a population considers desirable,
and not all levels require consideration if not
proper and good.96 Adhering to values can
relevant to the technology in question.
yield individuals positive social consequences.
What is considered valuable can include the The level of the self refers to the specific
material and immaterial, e.g. ranging from interaction between the user and the
an individual’s possessions or capital to their technology. Most anthropological literature
behaviours, morals or ethics. on individual-level technology use concerns
its potential reconfiguration of an individual’s
The final cultural topography metric refers to
sense of self,98 including how technologies
a culture’s ‘perceptual lens’, describing how
might shape their identity or alter how they
a population establishes facts about itself
determine facts about themselves.
and others,97 determining what it knows and
guiding its members’ understanding of the Micro-level ecological interactions refer to
nature of their collective reality. an individual’s direct interactions, such as
daily household, workplace or social ones,
Considering the role of identity, norms,
primarily informed by anthropological literature
values and perceptual lenses present
on technology’s role in mediating sociality
within cultures will help identify specific loci
between individuals, i.e. how technologies
where technology use might be consistent
shape interpersonal interactions that might not
or inconsistent with culture. Mapping a
otherwise be possible.99
population’s cultural topography will also help
establish a bound context. In contrast, meso and macro-level ecological
interactions between individuals and
3.2.3. Stage 3: Understanding ecological technology are often less tangible. However,
interactions they can still shape people’s lived experiences
of technology use and generate continued
The framework’s third stage focuses on
cultural impact. Meso-level structures include
generating a roadmap outlining a technology’s
technological interactions within local
specific contexts of use and its potential
infrastructure or intermediaries between
interactions with culture. ‘Ecological
individuals and higher organisational levels
interactions’ refer to people’s interaction with
like the state or global markets.100 The macro
their lived environment. Applied to technology,
level focuses more on the technology’s impact
it means an individual’s specific interactions

98 Boellstorff (2015).
99 Crossley (2015).
100 Crossley (2015).
Figure 3.4 A framework for identifying ecological interactions
• Institutions e.g. scientific, technological, economic, social, political,

legal, moral, religious...
Macro-level • Domains, e.g. production, transportation, education, entertainment,
law enforcement, defence, healthcare, economy...
• Traditions, techniques, laws, morals, religion, custons, belief
• Physical environment and infrastructure

» Urban/rural
» Transport
Meso-level » Smart cities
• Intermediaries between:
» The market and the standard setting bodies
» The individual and the state
• Locations e.g. household, workplace, leisure

• Interpersonal sociality
Micro-level » Human-human interaction
» Human-machine interaction
» Technical mediation of sociality
• The person as a producer or consumer

• Demographic metrics of variation
Self
• Time, space, personality, social self, values, thoughts, feelings,
actions...
on social and state institutions and broader 3.2.4. Stage 4: Influence or integration of
cultural phenomena such as traditions, laws technologies
and beliefs.101
Stage 4 amalgamates all the outputs of the
A more comprehensive understanding of previous stages to consider whether the
the presence of technologies is possible technologies in question will likely integrate
by covering the different analysis levels into culture or mediate cultural change (see
presented here. This approach optimises Figure 3.5). As a blueprint for how people
the identification of the interactional loci operate in the world, culture is not a fixed
between humans and technology to increase entity; instead, it constantly evolves in response
the specificity of insights into the likely future to novel contexts.102 While culture can guide
information environment. humans’ behaviour and actions, it may not

102 Aranzadi (2018).
27
Figure 3.5 Determining the influence or integration of technology into culture
Technology use in the cultural context
Technology integrated into culture? Culture change mediated by technology?
offer appropriate guidance when confronted around when to use it (e.g. time of day and
with novel technology; this is where cultural discussion types) and how (e.g. phone location
transformation can occur. and answering etiquette). Therefore, the
telephone’s development required the cultural
This framework stage aims to assess all
adoption of ideas, values and behaviours
previously generated outputs to assess
around its use alongside structural and
whether a particular population’s use of a
institutional changes facilitating its spread
new technology and its pre-existing cultural
(e.g. the establishment of telecom companies,
topography are aligned. If congruent, the new
regulations and legislation). However,
technology may integrate into the population’s
subsequent telephone-based technological
culture without prompting major changes.
developments – such as mobile phones,
However, if it clashes with elements of the
video calling and smartphones – required
cultural topography, then it may be abandoned.
less cultural adaptation due to pre-established
Alternatively, a technology incompatible with
norms and expectations. Such technologies
the population’s pre-existing culture may
could also rely upon the pre-established
stimulate cultural changes to accommodate
institutions supporting telecommunications,
it – the scenario by which future environments
illustrating cases where cultures can more
may undergo cultural change.
readily accept technological development.
For example, the development of the telephone
necessitated culturally mediated behaviour
Chapter 4. Assessing the cultural impacts

of technological developments on
the future information environment
This chapter presents study findings relating the technology might become culturally
to RQ4: How might the identified technological integrated or contribute to cultural change
developments shape culture through the (Framework Step 4).
information environment?
This chapter’s insights stem from a targeted 4.1. Automated information
analysis of six technological systems identified systems
to capture areas of significant technological
impact in the GAN information environment 4.1.1. Key characteristics and future trends
(see Section 2.2). The conceptual framework Automated information systems are computer-
presented in the previous chapter informed this based systems that collect, process, store,
analysis, conducted after reviewing existing distribute and/or produce information
literature and interviewing SMEs. autonomously. These systems are designed
Due to the study’s resource and timeline to streamline data management, enhance
constraints, we applied the framework efficiency and support decision-making
as an analytical tool guiding the research processes. However, they also autonomously
process and narrative. However, it was generate information and content, which may
impossible to comprehensively answer all feed into autonomous behaviours such as
framework questions for all systems. For each negotiation and communication with humans
technological system, we report the research or other machines.103 The latter typically
findings in four parts: relies on specialised AI-enabled software
applications supporting data processing,
1. Its key characteristics and future trends as storage, retrieval and production.
an actant (Framework Step 1).
Automated information systems comprise
2. Its key applications, relevant technological a wide range of capabilities. This study
developments and regulatory dynamics focused particularly on systems facilitating
(Framework Step 1). automated decision-making and information
3. Its implications for cultural identities, generation. Therefore, from a technological
norms, values and idea generation through point of view, advances in generative AI
perceptual lenses (Framework Step 2). and specific AI techniques, such as natural
language processing (NLP), are of particular
4. Its primary ecological interactions with
interest. Generative AI refers to systems that
culture (Framework Step 3) and whether
generate new content, such as text, images or
103 Avignone (2021).

29
videos, based on patterns and training data.104 range of tasks, generate information
Such systems are typically based on deep- across various domains and deal with
learning architectures, such as recurrent neural different (and changing) interaction and
networks, convolutional neural networks or query types.108 Models must also perform
transformer models. equally well with large datasets and small,
personalised ones.109
The current AI-development landscape is
characterised by rapid advances in several key • Reasoning capabilities and temporal
areas, including NLP.105 Based on advances in sensitivity: Research to augment AI
deep-learning techniques, relevant computer models with better reasoning capabilities is
hardware, large natural-language models and ongoing. Such research has, for example,
Generative Adversarial Networks, generative incentivised logical AI reasoning by
AI has rapidly developed into complex and verifying the entire reasoning chain models
sophisticated generative models in recent go through when making deductions rather
years.106 As a result, generative systems can than focusing solely on their output.110
produce increasingly human-like output levels Research has also been concerned with AI
in terms of the quality and authenticity of models’ temporal reasoning and sensitivity,
information. Building on these recent advances, ensuring they can be more easily updated
automated information systems will likely for better temporal awareness.111
evolve significantly in the period 2035 to 2050,
• AI models’ transparency and
particularly in the following areas:
explainability: Many AI models, including
• The ability of systems to deal with large generative AI and natural language
uncertainty and partial knowledge and models, are characterised as a ‘black
performance in complex human-machine box’, whereby it is difficult to distil what
environments: Despite significant progress, logic models adopt between receiving
current systems’ capabilities for dealing a data input and providing an output.112
with uncertainty, partial knowledge or Enhancing transparency and explainability
incomplete data remain limited. The is a significant step for addressing two
development of many AI techniques is corresponding challenges. First, there
thus concerned with improving these are known bias challenges in AI models,
capabilities.107 For example, future research particularly regarding the reproduction
towards virtual assistants will likely aim and amplification of data biases. Second,
to develop proactive rather than reactive explainability links to addressing the
systems that can perform a more diverse ‘hallucination’ challenge in current natural
104 McKinsey & Company (2023).

105 Research interview, 3 July 2023a.
106 Retinraj (2023).
110 Lightman et al. (2023).
language models, whereby models Adoption of automated systems such as the

generate false information with an unclear virtual assistant ChatGPT is already growing
reasoning chain.113 fast, with the ChatGPT system recorded as
‘the fastest growing consumer application in
4.1.2. Applications and implications for history’.116 While the system’s rapid adoption
the information environment stems partly from the significant public
interest shown by individual end users,
Applications of automated information
many businesses and industries have begun
systems are numerous and diverse in type and
exploring more systematic ChatGPT adoption
autonomy level. While some applications in the
due to perceived productivity-enhancing
GAN information environment may be oriented
opportunities in sectors such as banking,
towards full automation of information-related
hospitality and tourism.117
tasks, others may provide lower levels of
autonomy by providing recommendations, Future applications of automated information
automating routine tasks, and thus enabling systems will likely cross multiple economic
humans to focus on higher-level decision- sectors, including infrastructure and transport
making and problem-solving. As mentioned management, education, healthcare and
above, there are two application areas of defence. Due to the low end-user costs and
particular concern for the future information minimal technological know-how required
environment and culture: for many models, such as ChatGPT, the
technology will likely be available to a wide
• Automated decision-making, i.e.
range of end users, including non-technically-
delegating decision-making to autonomous
minded individuals and organisations–thus
agents. Examples range from using AI
democratising access to artificial decision-
models to assess and make decisions
making and content generation. Existing
about the quality of argumentative essays
technology adoption patterns suggest many
and debates to AI-enabled detection and
businesses may adopt technologies such as
evaluation of crime ‘hot spots’ for policing
ChatGPT due to cost-saving incentives despite
and using autonomous systems to provide
its uncertain limitations and risks.118
decisions in legal contexts.114
The implications of technology development
• Automated content generation, i.e. using
and adoption for the future information
generative language models to produce
environment depend significantly on the
written or audio-visual content. Such
application type and sector. However, they may
content can range from news articles to
include the following:
essays, letters, contracts, computer code
and cultural artefacts such as poetry,
screenplays and visual art.115
113 Lightman et al. (2023).

114 Green (2013), Chohlas-Wood (2020).
115 Metz (2022).
116 Hu (2023).
31
• Autonomous information agents’ extends to difficulties distinguishing

increasing agency in the information artificially generated versus human-
environment and larger information generated content, potentially increasing
yields from generative models: Language distrust in information sources and
models’ ability to generate natural amplifying cognitive biases such as
language may increase the proportion motivated reasoning (see Section 2.1.3).
of artificially generated versus human- Moreover, this issue has raised concerns
generated content in a person’s information about recognising content authorship in
environment. This may include malign academic research and education.122
information, such as propaganda, with
• Increasing privacy and cybersecurity
generative models enabling actors
concerns: Adopting natural language
to generate larger quantities at lower
models like ChatGPT has raised significant
costs.119 Therefore, autonomous agents’
concerns about privacy and data-protection
increasing role in information generation
challenges. Such concerns stem from the
has implications for the environment’s
considerable data end users enter into
overall nature and dynamics while raising
a system with high data-leakage risks
questions about the role of technology in
and without sufficiently robust privacy
information and knowledge production.
and data protection safeguards. From a
For example, debates are already emerging
cybersecurity perspective, the technology
in scientific contexts about whether
also raises concerns about end users’
technological systems can or should be
increased exposure to social engineering
recognised as co-authors if their role in
attacks, malware threats, phishing attacks
producing scientific knowledge continues
and identity theft.123
to increase.120
The regulatory landscape is under significant
• Difficulties detecting artificially generated
pressure due to the rapid evolution of
content and false information: There have
automated information systems. As AI and
been significant efforts towards developing
similar technologies can be used for various
evaluation frameworks and detection
benign and harmful purposes, existing
methods to identify artificially generated
developments highlight the challenge of AI
and/or false information. However,
regulation from a technology-driven approach.
concerns remain about the challenges
Regulating AI, including automated information
of detecting mis- and disinformation
systems, would likely require an application-
generated by language models, potentially
driven approach focused on AI applications
making malign information campaigns (e.g.
presenting a risk of harm to individuals or
propaganda) less discoverable.121 From
contravening existing legal safeguards (e.g. AI
an end-user perspective, the challenge
used for criminal purposes).124
119 Goldstein et al. (2023).

121 Goldstein et al. (2023).
123 Sebastian (2023).
124 Research interview, 30 June 2023.
In the future, AI system regulation will likely increasing sophistication and adoption raise
involve national regulatory bodies and questions about what we understand as
international or supranational organisations, human versus artificial intelligence, identity
such as the European Union. In the UK, the use and personhood. While traits such as creativity
of automated information systems is governed and logical reasoning may commonly be
by the Data Protection Act (DPA) of 2018 and associated with human intelligence, advances
the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act of 1988 in generative models’ reasoning capabilities
which governs intellectual property rights. The may challenge these notions while also
latter grants legal protection to creators and posing questions about the defining features
owners of original works, including software of ‘artificial’ intelligence. Scholarly debate
and databases. It is unclear how these has already considered whether (and to what
regulatory frameworks might be impacted extent) artificial intelligence truly represents
by the expanded use of automated systems ‘intelligence’ and the hierarchy of human versus
independently generating original content artificial intelligence.127
(albeit based on existing open-source data).
As cultural identities are reproduced, in
Future regulatory action faces additional part, through cultural artefacts,128 adopting
challenges, particularly given the slow pace generative models in sectors such as creative
of policy and regulation compared to the writing and visual arts also raises questions
technology’s rapid development and adoption about the role autonomous information
(driven by the demand for productivity and systems may play in reproducing culture.
other perceived benefits).125 Technology For example, societies will likely need to
governance is also likely to face barriers at the consider whether to embed artificially-
international level due to national technology- generated art and creative writing in cultural
development interests. For example, countries reproduction or safeguard human-generated
with developing technology markets are historical artefacts as centrepieces of cultural
unlikely to support governance arrangements identity, potentially challenging established
and regulatory action that may constrain their assumptions that culture is an inherently
technological development efforts.126 human artefact.
The proliferation of artificially generated
4.1.3. Cultural implications content in the information environment may
The cultural impacts of automated information also affect how knowledge about cultural
systems depend heavily on the level of artefacts is reproduced and its role in forming
autonomy that a technological system is cultural identity. On the one hand, increasing
enabled to have as well as the context in which artificially-generated content may mean that
it is being applied, and for what purpose. human-generated cultural artefacts become
less visible, limiting their participation in
Regarding a society or community’s cultural
processes reproducing cultural identities.
identity, automated information systems’
On the other, automating processes such as

128 Heersmink (2021).
33
archiving and documenting cultural artefacts current debate over the ethical and normative
may help preserve and transmit cultural boundaries of using AI in military operations.132
heritage, potentially making cultural content
Design advances also raise ethical, moral and
more accessible to different audiences.129
legal questions in designing autonomous
Like human augmentation technologies (see models, including which moral and ethical
Section 4.5), automated information systems codes should be embedded in informational
raise questions about the nature of human agents’ designs and the circumstances under
agency versus machine agency. Existing which one may ascribe moral agency to
research reports that the increasing adoption computational agents. From a legal perspective,
of AI-enabled tools supporting human activity adopting automated information agents will
presents ‘a turning point that will determine a also impact how existing legal frameworks and
great deal about the authority, autonomy and norms apply to autonomous technologies.133 A
agency of humans’, requiring debate around more general question is how future technology
the desired and necessary boundaries.130 development can or should align with social
norms and human goals and how technology
This question also relates to the normative
can embody human social realities and
aspects of culture. Debates about acceptable
experiences.134 This question also relates to the
levels of automation and appropriate
cultural values a society might wish to embed in
normative reference points to balance the
technological design.
societal costs and benefits of adopting
automated systems will likely accompany In the context of generative models, diversity
future technological developments in this and inclusion are the values of greatest
area.131 New behavioural norms will likely concern. As previously mentioned, generative
emerge within societies and communities to models face challenges reproducing and
guide such systems’ development and use in amplifying the biases embedded in data
different contexts. For example, new norms on which models are trained. Such biases
may emerge about the automation level include racial or gendered biases that have
acceptable in educational or creative workplace individual and societal costs if subsequently
settings, reflecting a society’s value of creativity reproduced.135 As this reflects the tendency
and critical thinking. New normative taboos of generative models to amplify the majority
may also emerge regarding automation use opinion, improvements in model design would
in specific contexts, such as automated be needed to ensure that models can recognise
decision-making in military and national societal norms and values such as protection
security environments. This issue concerns the of minority characteristics, social
129 Caramiaux (2020).

130 Pew Research Center (2023).
132 Depp (2023).
133 Hales & Gayle (2013).
justice and multi-culturalism.136 Conversely, to challenge the processes by which people

adopting autonomous information systems determine facts and derive ideas about
that reproduce biases may pressure existing themselves, others and their environments.
cultural norms and values relating to diversity In combination with the pace at which
and inclusion by influencing public debate with information can be produced by artificial
biased, misaligned perspectives. models, and the authenticity of artificial
information and challenges in distinguishing
The value of human labour and the right to
it from content developed by humans, end-
work may also come under pressure from
users may experience increasing difficulties
automating decision-making and information
recognising false information.140 Audio-visual
generation. Adopting generative models has
information is seen to carry particular risks;
already raised concerns about automation’s
as humans tend to place significant trust in
potential to cause rapid, widespread
audio-visual formats, difficulties distinguishing
displacement of human labour.137 For example,
artificial from human-generated content may
the United States has seen a series of labour
substantially increase the former’s influence on
strikes in creative industries based on fears
people’s attitudes and behaviours.141
that generative AI adoption will threaten actors’,
writers’ and other professionals’ roles, job Without reliable and effective detection
security and compensation.138 and evaluation frameworks to help people
distinguish artificial from human-generated
Since automating decision-making and
information or disinformation, some experts
generative processes is primarily motivated
anticipate a ‘truth crisis’. In this scenario, the
by economic factors (i.e. productivity gains
inability to distinguish between true and false
and cost-efficiencies), automating processes
information radically decreases the perceived
that currently rely on human labour will likely
value of objective facts, such that individuals
have significant social and cultural impacts.
only engage with and absorb information
Historical automation cases offer parallels
aligned with their existing attitudes and
with current and future automation-triggered
beliefs.142 The declining trust in institutions
changes to peoples’ work. However, the pace of
such as the government amplifies this
AI innovation is significantly faster, challenging
challenge. For this reason, there is increasing
society’s ability to develop normative, ethical
emphasis on developing explainable evaluation
and governance frameworks for responsible
frameworks to help individuals identify
and beneficial exploitation of the technology.139
information as true or false, thereby building
Lastly, as mentioned in the previous section, critical thinking skills and trust in reliable
artificial information generation is expected information sources.143

138 Sankaran (2023).
139 Research interview, 3 July 2023b.
140 Research interview, 30 June 2023, 3 July 2023a. Goldstein et al. (2023).
141 Helmus (2022).
35
4.1.4. Summary and ecological pressure, particularly as communities

interactions explore assumptions about the value of
human labour and the nature of human
Table 4.1 below summarises the potential
versus artificial intelligence.
interactions between technology and culture
across four ecological loci. • Secondly, artificially generated content
is associated with significant changes in
As society has already begun adapting to AI
how individuals and communities generate
adoption across various industries and areas of
ideas and determine facts about each
everyday life, most applications of automated
other and the environment. Although
information systems will likely integrate into
developing detection, verification and
existing cultural frameworks. However, two
content moderation frameworks may
particular interactions may engender more
mitigate the scale of this impact, social
significant sociocultural changes:
structures will come under significant
• Firstly, rapid and large-scale automation pressure as artificial content generation
of decision-making and information- challenges people’s ability to distinguish
generation functions might cause facts and make sense of their information
sociocultural disruption as human roles environment.
alter substantially within short periods.
Norms and values may thus come under
Table 4.1 Ecological interactions in automated information systems
Level Key interactions
Macro • Increasing role of AI in producing cultural artefacts and reproducing culture;

• Sociocultural disruption due to the potentially rapid, widespread automation and
displacement of human labour, including changes in professional cultures and domains
(e.g. education);
• Increasing cultural debate about acceptable automation levels and the ethical and moral
norms guiding automation in different domains.
Meso • Increased difficulty distinguishing artificial and human-produced content and

establishing facts about one’s physical, socioeconomic and political environment;
• Potential constraints on self-representation and equity due to bias reproduction in
autonomous models.
Micro • Increasing interaction and knowledge exchange between autonomous systems,

humans and machines, including in the workplace.
Self • Changes in people’s sense of self and perception of personhood and agency due to
increasing automation of decision-making and content-production.
4.2. A virtual metaverse interacted with and affected nearly every

part of human existence’.148 Though less
extensive, the development of immersive
4.2.1. Key characteristics and future
environments progressed significantly in
trends
the 2000s and 2010s, particularly in gaming
Various definitions of the term ‘metaverse’ and entertainment contexts.149 Recent
associate it with different capabilities and technological advances and socioeconomic
characteristics.144 However, it is typically developments (e.g. increased remote working
understood as a persistent and virtual during the COVID-19 pandemic) prompted
environment comprising applications that significant investment in developing more
allow end users to have agency in real-time extensive and immersive virtual environments
and fully immersive or simulated realities,145 beyond gaming to various socially interactive
including facilitating immersive digital elements.150 Commercial enterprises from
interpersonal communication through digital companies such as Meta, Apple, Google
twins (virtual models representing a physical and Microsoft have spearheaded this effort,
object, updated using real-time data). Though with Meta alone investing around £7.9bn in
entirely virtual, metaverses are informed by researching and developing its metaverse.151
real-world data, using sensors to capture
The metaverse’s considerable commercial
real-world information about end users and
potential will likely continue driving
their environments. This information enables
technological advancements,152 with Meta
individuals to ‘enter, assume a persona (or
aiming for the metaverse to reach a billion
multiple personas), interact with others, have
people globally by 2035.153 However, virtual
affordances and agency, perhaps modify
metaverses’ future evolution and adoption rely
the environment itself, and then leave’.146
on technological advances in several areas,
Such experiences are possible in an open-
including advanced connectivity to address
access metaverse environment or a closed
limited bandwidth, latency and data-transfer
commercial enterprise.147
limitations currently restricting metaverse
The term ‘metaverse’ first appeared in a 1992 applications.154 Advances in virtual reality
science-fiction novel by Neal Stephenson, hardware (e.g. headsets, gloves, glasses and
describing a persistent virtual world accessed contact lenses) and AI techniques for creating
through wearable goggles that ‘reached, immersive and responsive environments are
144 Chowdhury & Marler (2022).

145 Chowdhury & Marler (2022).
146 Marler et al. (2023).
148 Ball (2022, 3).
149 Ball (2022).
150 Moynihan et al. (2022).
152 Pew Research Center (2022b).
153 Meta (2023).
37
also required, including developing digital twins impaired motor functions or psychological
and technologies to facilitate interactions conditions160;
between people, objects and their digital
• Personalised learning and training in
counterparts and environments.155
simulated environments.161
4.2.2. Applications and implications for Predictions about the scale of future
the information environment metaverse activity vary. Some experts forecast
extensive metaverse use for all aspects of
It is unlikely that there will be one metaverse.
human activity and a revolutionary change
Instead, experts predict that multiple, parallel
in how societies and businesses function.162
and interrelated virtual environments will
Others predict more targeted metaverse use,
exist that end users can utilise for different
limiting applications to key sectors such as
purposes.156 Each virtual environment may
entertainment, healthcare and education.163
have specific characteristics, varying end-
According to recent expert surveys conducted
user autonomy/agency levels and focusing
by the Pew Research Center and Elon
on different services (e.g. entertainment,
University’s Imagining the Internet Center,
commerce and education). While the potential
54% of 624 expert participants predicted the
applications are wide-ranging, key uses include:
metaverse to be a refined, fully immersive, well-
• Immersive gaming and entertainment functioning aspect of daily life for over half a
– extending to immersive cultural billion people globally by 2040.164 In contrast,
experiences such as film screenings and 46% of experts held that the metaverse would
gallery viewings157; not be a well-functioning aspect of daily life in
2040 due to the technology’s perceived limited
• Social networking and interpersonal
benefits and potential harms.165
communication, with interactions in
immersive virtual environments replacing The cost of the interfaces end users use to
or extending current social media engage with virtual environments is a crucial
platforms158; factor expected to shape the scope and scale
of virtual environments’ adoption. Alongside
• Novel forms of business and commerce,
increasing cross-sector interest in virtual
e.g. immersive virtual commerce159;
environments, significantly decreased costs
• Preventative healthcare and advanced may prompt a rapid proliferation of metaverse
therapeutic methods, e.g. for patients with
155 AWS (2023).

156 Chowdhury & Marler (2022), Research interview, 3 July 2023b.
157 Sohail (2023).
158 Sohail (2023).
162 See, for example, Ball (2022), Marr (2023b).
163 Pew Research Center (2022b), Research interview, 3 July 2023b.
technology – even among end users with • Changed or amplified patterns of digital
no personal interest in the technology’s exclusion: Some experts anticipate that
benefits – due to the increasing number of virtual environments will only reinforce
services a metaverse may be able to provide, existing intergenerational digital divides.166
thus necessitating people to use it to access Others suggest that metaverse-application
services they need. uptake may differ across communities,
dividing communities that access and
The impacts of metaverse technologies on the
utilise immersive virtual environments from
information environment will depend on the
those that do not.167 Connectivity access
scale of their adoption and the diversity and
is thus a critical factor in potential digital
prevalence of their applications. If adoption
divides, as virtual environments depend on
continues increasing without particular use
significantly more advanced connectivity
restrictions, metaverse applications may
than current technologies such as
impact the information environment in the
smartphone-based internet browsers and
following ways:
social media.168
• Expansion of virtual communication
• Exacerbation of cognitive biases
and engagement: Metaverse adoption
through echo chambers and filter
may significantly expand virtual forms
bubbles: Current expert opinion suggests
of communication and engagement.
that virtual environments may amplify
Regarding the information environment’s
current challenges via echo chambers,
physical dimension, metaverse
filter bubbles, and algorithm-driven
development and adoption are likely
polarisation.169 A metaverse enabling
to drive changes in the information
greater personalisation of user experiences
infrastructure due to the significant
may yield more fractured views of reality,
connectivity requirements associated
potentially exacerbating existing echo-
with virtual environments and pervasive
chamber/filter-bubble effects by amplifying
sensing required to capture data about
the cognitive biases discussed in Section
end users and their physical environments.
2.1.3. This dynamic might involve
Additionally, a proliferation of new
communities and societies experiencing
devices (e.g. VR goggles) will accompany
parallel realities, exacerbating societal
metaverse adoption, replacing existing
polarisation and distrust in established
technological interfaces such as
information sources.170
smartphones. For end users, increasing
proportions of daily social interaction, • Amplification of information threats and
information consumption and service digital harms: The emergence of more
access (e.g. commerce) may operate potent forms of social manipulation and
within a metaverse. threats such as mis- and disinformation
is a significant concern about virtual

170 Canales (2021).
39
environments,171 reflecting the suggestion developments in augmented and virtual reality

that immersive virtual environments are technologies, with insufficient government
more influential than less immersive expertise available to ensure timely, effective
communication forms (e.g. current and efficient regulatory provision.176 As well as
social media). Virtual reality can also be addressing potential societal risks and harms
continuously and dynamically manipulated, within a metaverse, regulatory action will also
potentially amplifying manipulation risks, need to address accountability issues: adopting
increasing distrust and blurring the lines virtual identities may obfuscate end users’ real
between virtual and physical realities and identities, complicating the identification of
truth and fiction in either environment.172 perpetrators of harm in virtual environments.
• Increasing privacy and data-security Some experts have argued for formatively
challenges: Like automated information managing VR technologies as an alternative to
systems, virtual reality technologies are reactively regulating immersive environments
associated with significant privacy and to limit their exploitation. Formative
data-security challenges.173 Driven by management would limit applications to
the emphasis on personalising virtual specific sectors, such as training, education
experiences, virtual environments will or healthcare support in treating people with
likely require considerable personal (e.g. disabilities.177 This argument is motivated
biometric) data from end users and by the perceived risk that the widespread
continuous updates of such data to mirror application of immersive environments to day-
end users’ physical movements in a virtual to-day communication and social interactions
space.174 If developers aim to facilitate would yield significant social challenges
seamless end-user transitions between and risks (e.g. declining social cohesion and
virtual environments, transferring personal growing disconnect between physical and
data between metaverses will present virtual experiences) too challenging to manage
additional challenges.175 retrospectively.178
Experts anticipate significant challenges in However, any potential metaverse governance
developing governance mechanisms for virtual frameworks would likely be shaped by private-
environments, particularly from a regulatory sector actors with significant commercial
perspective. As regulation already lags behind interests in an unlimited application range.179
technological advances in areas such as The development of virtual environments and
AI, regulatory and policy-making bodies are enabling technologies is already dominated
expected to be under additional pressure from by a relatively small number of private-sector
171 Waltzman (2022).

176 Research interviews, 30 June 2023, 3 July 2023a.
actors driven by profit maximisation and the identities and change how societies define
technology’s commercial potential rather and shape their cultural identities.183
than end-user demand.180 This dynamic may
At an individual level, interactions in virtual
increase the future concentration of wealth
environments will likely impact an individual’s
and power in the ‘metaverse economy’ and
on-and-offline identity in various ways. Existing
technology industry.181
research on the effect of virtual engagements
on individuals’ self-perceptions highlights
4.2.3. Cultural implications the so-called Proteus effect, whereby ‘an
The development and adoption of virtual individual’s avatar or digital representation
environments will likely have widespread [influences] an individual’s sense of self’.184
societal and cultural impacts across cultural Translated effects from digital environments
identities, norms, values and individuals’ and to physical experiences can have powerful
wider communities’ perceptual lenses. therapeutic effects, driving interest in virtual
reality in the medical sector. However, studies
Regarding the formation of cultural identities
have already shown digital immersions’
at a societal level, the emergence of elaborate
broader impacts on end-user attitudes and
virtual environments may change existing
behaviours, such as gender and racial bias,
cultural identities’ importance while enabling
empathy, negotiation confidence, financial
new ones to emerge at the sub-national,
planning and commitment to physical
national or trans-national level. Expert
exercise.185 Such findings indicate that virtual
opinion indicates that future metaverses
experiences may spark changes or long-term
may reach such a sophistication level that
transformations in self-perception and identity,
they ‘come to function almost like new
including personal and societal roles.
countries in our society, countries that exist
in cyberspace rather than physical locations A related perspective relates to human agency
but have complex economic and political and the conceptualisation of digital human
systems that interact with the physical rights, i.e. how human rights paradigms might
world’.182 The emergence of these new virtual evolve in a virtual environment. Some experts
environments may correspond with new warn of significant threats to human agency
cultural configurations that complement or via the increased risk of malign actors, such
diminish existing cultural delineations. Some as authoritarian regimes, exploiting virtual
experts who anticipate a more interconnected environments for surveillance and societal
global society emerging via virtual reality manipulation.186 In scenarios where virtual
suggest that such a development may reduce environments lack privacy safeguards, selected
the importance of national and individual private sector or governmental actors could
use direct control to limit an individual’s

182 Coehn-Peckham (2020).
184 Jerome & Greenberg (2021).
41
agency in digital interactions. The changing norms around digital interactions. One key
relationships between individual end users and characteristic of a metaverse is that it is
those controlling virtual environments have ‘defined by people involved in its development
led some to argue that ‘our sense of physical and use’,191 potentially enabling a dynamic
identity, time and agency will become subject whereby digital-space governance is fully
to entirely new paradigms where the gateways democratised regarding the underpinning
to these experiences might be controlled by behavioural norms. Like existing norms relating
interests other than citizens’.187 to political participation, virtual environments
may incentivise the emergence of norms
Such possibilities contradict the expectation
around participation in the governance of
of decentralised and democratised
virtual spaces. Since multiple metaverses
digital governance and conflict with the
may co-exist, each virtual environment might
expectation that blockchain technologies,
have specific characteristics, including cultural
considered by many to be a prerequisite
identities and behavioural norms. Thus,
for a metaverse’s architecture,188 will
conflicting and polarised virtual worlds could
facilitate such decentralisation.189 While
emerge, each shaping identities and cultural
blockchain’s commercial and technological
norms differently.192
value and effectiveness are contested, its
adoption is commonly associated with a Self-representation and privacy might evolve
‘cultural change around user and developer alongside pervasive virtual environments.
rights, interoperability in virtual worlds, and Given privacy-protection concerns in virtual
compensation for those who support open- environments, metaverses will likely feature
source software’.190 Thus, current predictions ‘realistic, life-like avatars or entirely novel forms
and assessments of virtual environments’ of self-representation’.193 As well as providing
governance dynamics indicate that metaverse extra privacy, adopting these technologies
applications may amplify end-user agency may be motivated by a desire to achieve
in digital spaces through decentralised and ‘more nuanced self-representation [that is]
democratised control while also risking the better mapped to user identity, attributes and
fundamental diminishment of this agency if preferences’, increasing the quality of one’s
the actors developing and operating virtual experience in a metaverse.194 However, such
environments exploit the associated data self-representation may also challenge end
collection for malicious purposes. users’ trust in others they encounter in an
immersive space or virtual environment. For
The emergence of virtual environments
example, involuntary changes to one’s avatar
may also change current behavioural

188 Ball (2022).
189 Marr (2023b).
190 Ball (2022, 231).
191 Marler et al. (2023).
might undermine trust, presenting a new form self-representation (e.g. avatars) could support
of online harm.195 inclusivity, concerns have also been raised
about how easily virtual environments might
Such new self-representation and interpersonal
facilitate harassment and other harmful
communication methods also have broader
behaviours towards those with different
implications for interpersonal trust and the
characteristics.201 Consequently, there is a risk
importance of honesty in a society’s cultural
that virtual environments embed and promote
identity. As some cultures place significant
behaviours discouraging end users from
value on honesty and trust, such values
expressing their identity.202
could be undermined by technologies such
as virtual avatars which may be exploited or Finally, as discussed in the previous section,
manipulated.196 Expert opinion suggests that virtual environments are associated with
the expanding forms of self-representation and significant changes in people’s physical and
virtual connection will necessitate a wholesale virtual perceptual lenses and their ability to
reconfiguration of how individuals establish recognise and understand facts. Two dynamics
and maintain trust in themselves, others and are at play in this context:
information sources (e.g. institutions).197
• Firstly, due to the Proteus effect and other
Freedom of expression is another value cognitive processes, virtual environments
that may be affected by adopting immersive may change end users’ abilities to
environments. Immersive environments distinguish physical from virtual realities,
could enable new forms of self-expression, affecting their perception of physical
potentially facilitating new types of democratic reality through virtual interactions and
participation and reinforcing the importance experiences. Some commentators see
different cultures currently place on creativity the potential of increasingly blurred lines
and individual expression.198 However, freedom between physical and virtual realities as
of expression in virtual environments must a challenge, stressing that manipulating
also be balanced against the need to maintain virtual realities may negatively affect
inclusive and safe virtual environments.199 individual psychology in the virtual and
physical space. Therefore, manipulations
Some commentators are concerned about the
experienced in a digital environment may
lack of diversity in virtual reality technology
influence an individual’s physical or ‘real-
development and how virtual environments
world’ behaviours, potentially challenging
might diminish societal values of diversity
established sociocultural institutions such
and inclusivity.200 While new forms of
as democratic political systems.203 Others

198 Research interview, 3 July 2023b,
200 Veloz (2022).
201 Veloz (2022), Lu (2022).
202 Lu (2022).
203 Research interview, 30 June 2023, Waltzman (2022).
43
suggest that, though possible, increasingly sectors such as entertainment and gaming or
blurred perceptions of physical and virtual emerge as the next iteration of the internet (an
realities do not present an immediate ‘internet in 3D’), as some experts predict.
societal risk.204
Discussions with experts indicated that
• Secondly, several virtual reality shifting significant parts of human activity and
characteristics challenge people’s ability interaction into metaverse environments may
to distinguish fact from fiction.205 The amplify existing cultural norms and values
potential for virtual environments to be (e.g. honesty in interpersonal communication,
dynamically manipulated risks people privacy, inclusivity and equity). However, the
increasingly struggling to distinguish reality increased risk of social manipulation inherent
from fictional or manipulated experiences. in virtual environments may generate cultural
At a societal level, virtual environments’ disruptions, particularly without robust content
potential for generating more pervasive moderation and governance mechanisms.
echo chambers also presents a risk that Other significant impacts may stem from
communities struggle to achieve factual extending self-representation to virtual
consensus. identities and the need to consider the risks
(e.g. difficulties establishing accountability)
4.2.4. Summary and ecological and benefits (e.g. safeguarding privacy) of
interactions anonymity that virtual environments offer.
Expanding virtual communication and Table 4.2 below summarises the key
engagement through interoperable metaverses ecological interactions between metaverse
may significantly affect culture. However, the technologies and culture.
extent of this impact depends on whether
metaverse applications remain limited to
Table 4.2 Ecological interactions in virtual metaverses
Macro • Changing delineations of cultural identities, potentially decreasing the importance of

geographically and nationally defined identities and the emergence of new ones through
virtual sociality;
• The changing importance of cultural norms and values such as honesty, creativity,
inclusivity and privacy through immersive virtual environments.
Meso • A re-definition of the relationship between individuals, private-sector actors and the
state due to the potential exploitation of immersive environments for persistent
surveillance and societal manipulation;
• The emergence of new modes of political and democratic participation through virtual
environments;
• Increasingly blurred lines between virtual and physical realities and individuals’ changing
relationship with their physical environment.

Micro • The potential amplification of harms and distrust in interpersonal sociality due to
challenges enforcing accountability in virtual environments;
• Extension of the virtual dimension of interpersonal sociality and its potential for
diminishing the value of physical sociality.
Self • Extending self-representation to virtual identities and increasing the importance placed
on digital self-representation;
• A changing understanding of physical identity, time and agency in one’s physical
environment;
• Increased agency and self-expression through anonymisation and decentralised
governance of virtual environments.
4.3. Augmented and mixed reality AR systems’ overarching objective has been
described as supplementing and improving
4.3.1. Key characteristics and future a user’s view of a real environment. As such,
trends AR systems are not limited to augmenting a
user’s visual perception of the world but can
Augmented Reality (AR) describes technology-
also augment their hearing, smell and touch.208
enabled experiences that blend physical
AR applications link closely with mixed-reality
and digital realities by imposing computer-
(MR) systems that provide more interactive
generated elements onto end users’ physical
experiences for end users, enabling digital
experiences. Unlike purely virtual experiences,
content to interact with and respond to non-
AR experiences feature computer-generated
digital objects/content in real time rather than
content interdependent and integrated with the
overlaid on a physical environment.209
real world, facilitating augmented perceptions
of one’s real-world environment.206 While some The future development of AR applications links
researchers defined AR as relying on head- closely with the advances in VR technologies
mounted displays, others conceptualise it more discussed in the previous section. They are
broadly based on three characteristics: embedded in AI technique development
(particularly computer vision) and other
1. It combines virtual content with real-world
technologies (e.g. sensors) that facilitate
characteristics.
recognition and mapping of a user’s physical
2. It generates real-time interactive environment and telecommunication and
experiences. connectivity technologies providing the baseline
3. It renders systems in 3D.207 computing infrastructure for AR and MR
experiences.210 However, a key objective in AR/
206 Mekni & Lemieux (2014).

207 Ismail & Noh (2013).
208 Ismail & Noh (2013).
45
MR innovation is developing interfaces such as information about their environment

‘smart glasses’ and digital eyewear that facilitate qualitatively and quantitatively. A
the overlay of digital content onto end users’ physical environment augmented with
perceptions of their physical environment.211 AR/ computer-generated content will expose
MR interfaces’ cost and accessibility will likely end users to more information about
be critical in shaping their scope and uptake their physical surroundings, potentially
among the general public. increasing cognitive loads.216 From a
qualitative perspective, AR is understood
4.3.2. Applications and implications for to produce a qualitative shift in information
the information environment representation, enabling individuals to
build knowledge about their physical
Like VR, AR system applications will likely
environments via directly superimposed
focus on gaming and entertainment, though
digital content. While the quantity
educational and training applications have
of AR-generated information might
received increasing attention.212 While
increase end users’ cognitive loads, the
AR and MR gaming and entertainment
interpretation of information in AR may be
applications are largely driven by the appetite
facilitated through detailed guides provided
for more immersive (and thus richer) end-
by AR systems on how to apply pieces
user experiences, the education sector has
of information without extensive critical
attracted more interest due to AR and MR’s
thinking needed from the end-user.217
reported benefits in understanding and
retaining educational content, motivation • Amplification of cognitive information-
and collaboration in educational settings.213 processing biases: Like VR, AR and MR
Other domains where AR applications will will likely amplify key cognitive biases
likely proliferate include cultural heritage shaping how individuals engage with their
and tourism,214 manufacturing, healthcare, information environment. AR-and-MR-
visualisation and engineering (e.g. robotic enabled services predominantly provide
design and development).215 highly personalised content, reinforcing
selective information consumption and
Across these domains, AR and MR use
amplifying information filter bubbles.218
presents several implications for the
information environment: • Amplification of malign information
threats: The relationship between
• Qualitative and quantitative changes
augmented experiences and end users’
in information processing: AR use will
perceptions of physical reality presents
likely affect how individuals interact with
social-manipulation risks for targeted end

212 Savela et al. (2020).
213 Thomas et al. (2019).
214 Jung et al. (2018).
215 Mekni & Lemieux (2014).
216 Buchner et al. (2021).
217 Ariso (2017).
218 Ariso (2017).
user AR and MR experiences. For example, landscape and reinforcing social echo
end users exposed to manipulated AR and chambers.222
MR content might experience distrust or
other emotional reactions likely to have 4.3.3. Cultural implications
broader effects on their behaviour in their
While many VR-associated cultural
physical environment. At a societal level,
considerations may also apply to AR and
this raises the risk of broader societal
MR, unique dynamics are at play for AR and
manipulation. Additionally, research
MR. These dynamics result from end users’
suggests that AR and MR technologies
different engagement levels in a virtual
may challenge end users’ abilities to
metaverse versus an AR/MR application: while
distinguish fact from fiction in both an
virtual environments immerse individuals in a
‘augmented’ environment and a physical
fully-virtual environment distinct from physical
one, presenting another risk factor for
reality, AR/MR applications overlay and thus
malign exploitation.219
integrate digital information into an individual’s
• Changing media landscape: AR will actual physical environment. Research
likely become increasingly bound up suggests this difference may significantly
with social media as immersive 3D impact social networking and interpersonal
content increasingly replaces 2D media connectedness, both positively and negatively:
while affecting how the broader media
• On the one hand, emerging research
ecosystem produces and distributes
indicates that AR applications can
information.220 Thus, expanded AR use
enhance social communication
by social media platforms might amplify
and interaction, positively affecting
social media’s increasing domination of the
socialisation and collaborative behaviour.223
media landscape over traditional editorial
For example, research into AR games and
media while simultaneously enabling news
entertainment reports that AR games
organisations to reach a wider readership
can incorporate social and collaborative
through more immersive journalism.221 AR
aspects that incentivise sociability.224
may also change how individuals consume
These positive effects relate particularly to
and interact with news due to AR’s potential
the interconnectedness between end users
to trigger more emotional reactions than
of the same AR and MR application, such
traditional news formats. For example,
as AR game players.
the media might exploit AR’s enhanced
potential for eliciting emotional effects to • On the other hand, experimental research
reach larger audiences and influence public has indicated that using AR applications
opinion, potentially fragmenting the media can detrimentally impact social
connectedness, with AR users reporting
219 Ariso (2017).

220 Bullock (2018).
221 European Commission (2016).
222 Department of Homeland Security (2022).
223 Savela et al. (2020).
224 Serino et al. (2016).
47
less social connection when interacting augmented simulations, i.e. that feelings and
with others.225 These effects are particularly attitudes formed in ‘augmented’ situations
evident in the physical (dis)connectedness carry over to non-augmented ones.227
of AR or MR application users: for example, As with the Proteus effect, AR use may
because AR and MR applications allow significantly affect individuals’ connections
users to interact with virtual content only and understanding of physical spaces based
visible to them and not others, those in an on AR experiences. Thus, it may affect how
end users’ immediate physical environment individuals navigate their physical environment,
may feel uncomfortable and disconnected with various implications for individuals’
from an end user engaging with AR and cultural identity. Thus, AR-enabled experiences
MR content. Similarly, future AR and MR will likely shape interpersonal connections
applications may display virtual content or cultural identities inside and outside an
relating to individuals in an end user’s ‘augmented’ environment.
environment, potentially violating social
Though presenting a risk of malign social
norms such as privacy or engendering
manipulation, such dynamics also offer
distrust between individuals.226
opportunities for cultural change through
In summary, research indicates that while AR advocacy. Recent work documented an
and MR use may foster social connectedness increasing interest in AR-enabled activism,
between end users of the same applications, underpinned by the activist community’s
negative implications are also possible due perspective of AR as a technology with the
to the disconnect between an end user’s ‘potential for contributing to broad cultural
‘augmented’ experiences and their physical shifts’.228 The underlying belief is that the
environment. This dynamic may affect the immersive quality of AR experiences may
formation of cultural identities, as new cultural enable activists to ‘tell stories in more
communities could form around specific AR expressive ways, transporting audiences
and MR application use (e.g. within the gaming into a new reality defined by the creator’.229 In
community). Conversely, immersion in AR and essence, AR and MR present an opportunity
MR experiences may amplify the disconnect to connect audiences more closely with the
between end users and their existing phenomena activism is concerned with (e.g.
cultural environment by reducing physical climate change) by incorporating it into an
interconnectedness. audience’s real-life physical environment. As
well as enabling positive cultural change, this
AR and MR applications have also been
opportunity could facilitate malign purposes,
associated with changes in people’s
such as regimes and non-state actors
relationships with physical spaces. Recent
intimidating individuals or communities.
social experiments indicated that AR
experiences might change how end users Like VR applications, AR and MR
feel and interact with physical spaces outside may significantly affect privacy and
225 Miller et al. (2019).

226 Miller et al. (2019).
227 Oulette (2019).
228 Silva et al. (2022, 3).
229 Silva et al. (2022, 3).
data-protection norms and social values. new rules and behavioural norms. This effect
At a societal level, AR applications will likely may be particularly strong in communities
continue the trend by which the IoT has where honesty and privacy are important
challenged traditional ‘data minimisation’ aspects of the cultural topography.
norms, presenting ‘an even more visible and
potentially sensitive confluence of sensors 4.3.4. Summary and ecological
and connectivity’.230 This likelihood stems interactions
from how much data progressively advanced
While some AR and MR effects on the
iterations of AR applications will need to
information environment and culture mirror
collect on their users and their users’ physical
those of VR technology, several unique
environments and its necessary persistence to
dynamics are summarised relative to the
seamlessly embed digital content into a user’s
ecological loci in Table 4.3 below. The critical
physical environment. Large-scale uptake of
aspect differentiating AR/MR’s impact from
AR and MR applications, particularly for day-
other technologies is the merging of virtual and
to-day activities such as social networking,
physical reality and the implications of this for:
may thus engender significant changes in
social norms and attitudes towards privacy • An individual’s perception of their physical
and data protection. environment through qualitative and
quantitative shifts in the presentation of
At a personal level, adopting AR and MR
information about physical spaces;
technologies may also challenge attitudes
and behaviours linked to protecting privacy • Amplifying cognitive biases, such as
and personal data, potentially affecting selected reasoning through content
interpersonal connections and the importance personalisation, with potentially greater
of social values such as honesty. As noted effects on individuals’ abilities to establish
above, AR and MR applications may enable and maintain a factual understanding of
the overlay of digital information onto an end their physical environment.
user’s perception of other individuals in their Across the four cultural elements, AR and MR
physical environment in the future. If used may thus present the most significant impacts
without the consent of individuals in an end on perceptual lenses, i.e. processes through
user’s environment, such applications may which cultures generate collective ideas.
significantly challenge social norms around
privacy and honest communication or generate

49
Table 4.3 Ecological interactions in augmented and mixed reality
Macro • Development of new cultural norms for augmented interactions, e.g. acceptable AR/MR
use in interpersonal interaction.
Meso • People’s changing relationship with their physical environment through augmented
perceptions of physical spaces;
• New forms of AR/MR-enabled activism and technology-enabled amplification of social
movements facilitating cultural change.
Micro • Potential challenges in maintaining honesty in interpersonal interactions as individuals

adopt AR/MR lenses in engaging with others without their consent;
• Increases in virtual connectedness and collaboration within communities connected
through AR/MR applications, alongside corresponding decreases in physical social
connectedness.
Self • A disconnect between individuals’ physical and AR/MR-facilitated experiences, changing

their respective importance for personal enjoyment, self-expression and everyday activity.
4.4. Advanced connectivity • 5G/6G cellular networks: Currently, 5G

networks are being globally deployed
4.4.1. Key characteristics and future to improve speed and reduce latency
trends in cellular network technology. These
networks will continue evolving, with
The future information environment will likely
the next generation of wireless cellular
include continued expansion of the internet
connectivity (i.e. 6G) aiming to enhance
as a ‘global connector’ and increasing
connectivity speed, reduce latency and
human and object connectivity levels,
enable more reliable, cost-and-energy-
creating an increasingly interconnected
efficient connectivity solutions.232 6G is
communication network embedded into the
expected to be introduced in 2030 and
physical world.231 In this context, advanced
is considered a requirement for various
connectivity comprises technological
consumer applications, including AR, MR,
concepts aiming to enhance human-object
VR, holographic communication, terahertz
connection and interconnectedness in the
frequencies and advanced AI-driven
information environment. Examples of the
applications.233 Moreover, 6G networks
numerous technological enablers of advanced
will enable connectivity to progress
connectivity include:
from personalised communication to
more seamless real-time connections

232 Johnson (2020).
233 Sinha & Sengupta (2023).
between devices, sensors and computing computing is a distributed computing

systems.234 paradigm that positions data processing
and storage closer to the network’s
• Space-enabled connectivity: Space
edge, near the data-generation source.
technologies have attracted increasing
Edge computing aims to overcome the
interest as enablers for advanced
limitations of traditional centralised cloud
connectivity, potentially providing
computing by locating data processing
global signal coverage, extended
and analysis closer to data production
broadband access, connectivity for
rather than relying solely on remote cloud
mobile communications and the IoT and
servers.238
broadcasting and other telecommunication
services.235 Future space-based These technological advances are expected
technologies used for connectivity will likely to increase the geographic scope of
include low-earth orbit satellites and mega- connectivity, facilitating more persistent
constellations (i.e. sizeable constellations and resilient internet access and internet-
of small satellites facilitating persistent enabled applications. Other objectives driving
global internet coverage). Increasing connectivity innovation include reducing
utilisation of space-based technologies for latency and associated energy consumption
connectivity is largely driven by decreasing and increasing data throughput and spectrum
space-access costs and space markets’ efficiency.239
commercialisation, positively influencing
technological innovation in the space 4.4.2. Applications and implications for
economy.236 the information environment
• Mesh networking and edge computing: Advanced connectivity may take
Technological advances in connectivity different forms due to the increasing
also aim to provide more decentralised interconnectedness of the information
network architectures, e.g. through mesh environment’s various elements. Examples
networking and edge computing. The include:
former refers to decentralised network
• Improved connectivity and personalisation
architectures in which interconnections
of end-user services and industrial
between multiple devices (known as
applications: The IoT ecosystem will
‘nodes’) create a mesh-like structure. Each
continue growing, seeing a proliferation
node in this network can communicate
of connected devices across different
directly with neighbouring nodes, forming
industries and sectors that will likely
multiple paths for data transmission to
generate more sophisticated IoT
facilitate more seamless and resilient
applications, greater device interoperability
connectivity.237 Conversely, edge
234 Sinha & Sengupta (2023), Giordani (2020).

235 Black et al. (2022).
236 Black et al. (2022).
237 Science Direct (2023).
238 Gold & Shaw (2022).
51
and more personalised services for end communication and enable access to
users. An example of the latter is the online data networks.244 Section 4.5 on
development of ‘smart homes’ facilitated human augmentation discusses this
via increased object connectivity in a development in more detail.
person’s home environment.240
These developments’ implications for the
• New industrial products and services and information environment vary. First and
the continued development of ‘smart’ foremost, connectivity is a critical enabler
cities and infrastructures: Enhanced for other applications expected to shape
connectivity – particularly an expanded the information environment in 2035-2050,
IoT – also has varied applications at including automated information systems,
the industrial or sectoral level. Like the AR, MR and VR applications and wearable
emergence of ‘smart homes’, advanced technologies discussed in other parts of this
connectivity is expected to progress chapter. Therefore, the impact of advanced
‘smart city’ initiatives, leveraging connectivity on the information environment
advanced connectivity to improve urban will primarily be through access to and
infrastructure, sustainability and quality of availability of these advanced technologies,
life, particularly for people in urban areas. which will likely require higher bandwidths and
Examples include advancements in ‘smart’ low latency.
transportation, energy management, waste
By itself, advanced connectivity promises better
management and preventive infrastructure
and more reliable access to data, information
maintenance.241
and digital communication channels for
• The emergence of an ‘internet of bodies’: end users, organisations and broader
Advances in object connectivity may sectors. This promise implies expanding the
eventually extend to human bodies. information environment’s virtual dimension
Researchers refer to the potential for interpersonal communication in domestic,
development of an internet-linked network social or professional environments. For
of human-connected devices collecting example, advanced connectivity has been
end users’ biometric data as an ‘internet linked to the growth of remote working,
of bodies’.242 While mainly discussed in particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic.
the context of advanced, personalised Building on this, organisations and employers
medicine, the concept may expand to may transfer more activities and services to
other personalised services, such as home the digital domain for the enabling effects of
management.243 An ‘internet of bodies’ advanced connectivity, including telemedicine
may also ultimately lead to an ‘internet of and tele-education.245 However, increased
brains’, i.e. human brains connected to the connectivity also expands the scope of
internet to facilitate direct brain-to-brain information individual end users receive from
240 Austin (2019).

242 Lee et al. (2020).
243 Lee et al. (2020).
244 Boran (2019).
245 Hamingson (2023), Deloitte (2023), ITU & UNICEF (2021).
various devices, sometimes in real-time. by broadening its attack surface, i.e.

This development may increase end users’ increasing the number and ubiquity
cognitive load and raise the importance of of interacting devices and inter-device
critical thinking skills and information literacy connections that may be compromised.249
to ensure they can effectively navigate
and leverage the benefits of advanced 4.4.3. Cultural implications
connectivity.246
Advanced connectivity will likely raise questions
The key challenges stemming from advanced about the value and importance of connectivity
connectivity in the information environment itself, and the norms and values embedded
relate primarily to data protection, privacy and in the governance of a more thoroughly and
security in cyberspace: persistently interconnected world.
• Regarding data protection and privacy, Existing work on future trends in the internet’s
increased connectivity between objects, design and governance already frames
devices and human bodies presents connectivity as a fundamental norm and
cybersecurity risks due to the increased value in a world where society increasingly
quantity and diversity of the data collected relies on digital spaces. According to one
and shared across devices.247 Significant expert surveyed by the Pew Research Center
privacy and data safety concerns have on future internet visions, ‘the fundamental
already been raised in light of the IoT’s norms and values of a data-driven global
expansion due to end users’ limited network society [are] connectivity, the free flow
control over the collection, retention and of information, communication, participation,
distribution of their data.248 An added flexibility and transparency. These values are
privacy challenge is the potential to the norms guiding digital life and practice as
triangulate an individual’s data from they underlie the construction of networks in
multiple sources that might otherwise only business, education, health care, science and
capture it anonymously. politics’.250 This sentiment is reflected in recent
moves to recognise connectivity and internet
• Poor cybersecurity standards also
access as a fundamental human right, e.g.
increase the risk of data leakages from
the United Nations officially recognised it as
interconnected devices, amplifying
one in 2016.251 Such developments embed the
data protection and privacy challenges
idea that a lack of connectivity may inhibit a
associated with connectivity. Given the
person’s access to services reflecting other
increase in internet-connected devices,
fundamental human rights, such as education,
networks such as the IoT also increase
healthcare and safety information.252
the information environment’s vulnerability
246 ITU (2021).

247 Maras (2015).
248 Maras (2015).
250 Pew Research Center (2022a, 46).
251 OHCHR (2023).
252 OHCHR (2023).
53
A human rights perspective on connectivity • At the societal level, experts consider

and its future sociocultural value is reinforced connectivity an enabler for new modes
by the challenges that denied connectivity of learning, self-discovery and mobility
presents from a human rights perspective. that may impact identity formation.
For example, internet shutdowns are already As connectivity enables access to
highlighted as human rights challenges in new data and services that deepen
the digital age, as they infringe on the right to insights into human life, society and the
freedom of opinion, expression, association, physical environment, it may embed in
peaceful assembly, and participation in public the processes through which societies
and political life.253 As connectivity becomes formulate common cultural touchpoints.256
more persistent and ubiquitous, its absence Like the impact of virtual environments
(e.g. via internet shutdowns) may affect people and augmented realities, connectivity may
more significantly, gaining greater importance challenge existing cultural delineations
as a human rights violation. while enabling new cultures and sub-
cultures to form through digital interactions
Regarding cultural identities and their
or connectivity-enabled physical mobility.
formation, connectivity has implications at
For example, experts suggest that the
individual and societal levels:
enabling effect of connectivity on remote
• At the individual level, research suggests working may make isolated, sparsely
that increasing connectivity between populated areas more attractive places to
humans, including the potential emergence live.257 The changing demographic makeup
of an ‘internet of brains’, may produce of urban and rural areas may translate into
conflicting dynamics for human local communities’ cultural identities.
interaction and agency in the information
Regarding cultural norms and values,
environment. While it may ‘[open] the
technological advances in connectivity require
doors to extraordinary new means of
considering how connectivity supports
human collaboration’, it may also ‘[blur]
diversity and inclusivity, particularly how
fundamental notions about individual
connectivity may amplify or reduce existing
identity and autonomy in disconcerting
societal inequities. Increasing connectivity
ways’.254 The latter relates particularly
levels may help narrow access gaps,
to concerns that a future network of
addressing current digital divides. For example,
direct brain-to-brain connectivity may
developing space-enabled telecommunications
reduce the barriers limiting one individual
connectivity promises a space-based
from coercing another or extracting
infrastructure for global internet coverage that
their thoughts or data without consent,
offers persistent, ubiquitous and high-quality
thus compromising their agency and
personhood.255
253 Bellasio et al. (2021).

254 Martone (2019).
255 Martone (2019).
256 Research interview, 5 July 2023.
257 Pew Research Center (2022a, 75).
connectivity (including remote rural areas some communities may remain or become
where connectivity is currently poor).258 digitally excluded, democratic institutions
must consider how to enable their political
While advances such as space-based
participation via alternative means.262 There
telecommunications infrastructure may
is a risk that certain communities’ digital
address current connectivity shortfalls, there
exclusion could be exploited to reinforce
is also a risk that future advances amplify
their marginalisation in political life. Thus,
existing digital-access divides and engender
discrepancies in access to advanced
new patterns of digital exclusion.259 For
connectivity technologies might challenge
example, connectivity divides might emerge
democratic norms and values, particularly
between the Global North and Global South
concerning individuals’ abilities to participate in
if the uptake of advanced connectivity
democratic processes.
technologies is uneven across countries
and regions with differing technological and Among less technologically and economically
economic development.260 An estimated developed countries, the cultural implications
one-third of the global population currently of advanced connectivity may be associated
lacks access to high-speed broadband, with increasing environmental value
reinforcing the economic, political and social attachments. In many ways, advanced
disadvantages of limited technology access connectivity involves environmental issues
and use.261 Greater disparities in connectivity such as energy consumption, e-waste
service costs or infrastructure costs may management, and the carbon footprint263
amplify such divides in the future, leading to –particularly in societies more affected
increasingly severe consequences as more by changes in the global climate or where
services and day-to-day interactions depend environmental degradation and energy
on connectivity. Such discrepancies may consumption are particularly challenging.264 As
reinforce or result in new social hierarchies these and other societies navigate potential
with sociocultural implications. future energy crises, the evolving cultural
positions on environmental issues may affect
Connectivity advances also link to societal
societal perceptions of advanced connectivity
norms and values around democratic
technologies and their socioeconomic value.
participation, stemming from its significance to
human rights such as freedom of expression Lastly, adopting advanced connectivity
and peaceful assembly. Research on the future technologies may challenge privacy norms
dynamics of online spaces suggests that that feature strongly in many cultures.265
connectivity advances may increase reliance While the challenges to individual privacy are
on technology for political participation. Since already debated today, advanced connectivity
258 Black et al. (2022).

261 Signe (2023).
262 Pew Research Center (2022c).
263 Malmodin & Lunden (2018).
55
and increased cross-device user-data 4.4.4. Summary and ecological

collection will likely amplify these challenges. interactions
Indeed, the potential triangulation of data
Advanced connectivity encompasses a range
across devices and datasets may make it
of different concepts that, together, present
increasingly difficult for individuals to maintain
a more interconnected future network of
anonymity and fully protect their data. From a
physical spaces, objects and human bodies.
cultural perspective, this may trigger debates
While device-related connectivity may extend
about the normative importance of privacy
rather than shift current sociocultural debates,
relative to personalisation of services and
more substantial cultural shifts might emerge
other benefits that stem from connectivity.
in applying connectivity to human bodies.
Traditionally marginalised communities
Therefore, emerging forms of connectivity,
for whom privacy has added significance
including an ‘Internet of Bodies’ or ‘Internet of
as a safeguard against harassment and
Brains’, may be more likely to mediate cultural
discrimination may be particularly affected
change, particularly concerning individuals’
by privacy-related concerns. Therefore,
sense of agency, personhood and values such
challenges may also arise for related
as anonymity. Table 4.4 summarises these
dimensions of culture, such as equity and
and other ecological interactions between
non-discrimination, if advanced connectivity
advanced connectivity and culture.
challenges current privacy norms.266
Table 4.4 Ecological interactions in advanced connectivity
Macro • Reinforcing connectivity as a cultural value and fundamental human

right;
• Reducing or amplifying existing societal connectivity inequities;
• Potential clashes between the cultural importance and value of
connectivity versus privacy.
Meso • Increasing interconnectivity between humans and their physical

environment;
• Expanding opportunities and challenges for democratic participation,
i.e. the potential for digital citizenry on the one hand versus
connectivity weaponisation on the other (e.g. internet shutdowns).
Micro • Enabling human-to-human collaboration through direct and more

persistent connectivity;
• Personalising home and workplace services by integrating devices and
personal physiological data.

Self • Potentially compromised agency and personhood via privacy

infringements, particularly in the event of data triangulation between
interconnected devices;
• New connectivity-enabled modes of learning, self-discovery and
mobility, providing new opportunities for self-development and self-
actualisation.
4.5. Human augmentation prosthetics are a related category, including

exoskeletons, i.e. whole-body robotic
4.5.1. Key characteristics and future suits that enhance end users’ physical
trends capabilities and improve their mobility,
strength, endurance and other abilities.270
Human augmentation technologies
refer to technologies that enhance • Brain-computer or brain-brain interfaces
human capabilities, either physically or that establish direct communications
cognitively. The human augmentation field between human brains and/or computer
is interdisciplinary, relying on advances in devices.271
various technological areas, including sensing, While the technological systems discussed
actuation, neuroscience and AI techniques.267 earlier in this chapter relate to human
The technological applications most augmentation, this section discusses
associated with human augmentation include: technologies that go beyond improving
• Wearable devices and implants for human experiences (e.g. through automation
tracking and analysing physiological and and immersion), focusing instead on directly
environmental data (e.g. biochips and improving human cognitive or physical
implantable sensors). These technologies functions.
aim to achieve real-time continuous Significant advancements are likely in human
monitoring of physiological data to augmentation technologies in the 2035–2050
understand human health conditions and timeframe. Examples include developing more
performance.268 sophisticated but less invasive technologies,
• Sensory augmentation technologies such such as brain-computer interfaces enabling
as hearing and retinal implants designed seamless human-machine interaction,
to improve or augment sensory activities, cognitive teaming and communication.272
particularly vision and hearing.269 Smart Current technological development priorities
267 Raisamo et al. (2019).

268 Perkovic (2022).
269 Sienko et al. (2018).
270 Paturel (2014).
271 Chandler et al. (2022).
57
include developing safeguards to reduce development will need extensive testing to

associated risks (and perceptions thereof), demonstrate their safety and low risk across
particularly in invasive technologies; ensuring a large heterogeneous population of end
the long-term stability and resilience of users. Achieving this will require significant
technology performance; and developing a public involvement in technology development,
more holistic understanding of human brain particularly as testing will require extensive and
activity to advance neurotechnology.273 diverse end-user samples to test technologies
over increasing periods to collect sufficiently
Assessments of the extent and scope of
rich technology-performance data.276
technological applications for enhancing
human cognitive and physical capabilities Such considerations may be reflected in
in the GAN timeframe vary significantly. future regulatory frameworks. Regulations
While some experts predict the tactical will likely evolve at the national level in line
improvement of human capabilities, others with ethical and legal norms and standards,
have explored the potential emergence including those relating to privacy and data
of ‘trans-humanism’ within the 2050 protection, consumer safety and related issues
timeframe. This concept describes ‘a new such as labour rights. A critical regulatory
form of human (a trans-human) […] where consideration is ensuring the safety of
information and communication technologies human augmentation technologies while
and biomedicine will fundamentally improve balancing robust safety mechanisms with
the human condition and greatly enhance sufficient regulatory flexibility and agility to
human intellectual, physical and psychological enable responsible innovation.277 There are
capacities’.274 Trans-humanism implies also concerns about the impact of human
the adoption of considerably advanced augmentation technologies on legal and
technologies by 2050, including brain-to-brain moral responsibility and accountability.
communication and genetic enhancement, People may perceive human augmentation as
and thus depends on resolving the various constraining human control over cognitive and
scientific and engineering barriers currently physical functions via embedded technology,
characterising the field.275 thus posing questions about accountability
for detrimental consequences resulting from
Unlike other technological areas, adopting
‘augmented’ human actions.278
human augmentation technologies will
likely depend more heavily on societal Due to the highly interdisciplinary nature
understanding of risk, safety and the of human augmentation, expertise across
comparative benefits of these technologies. multiple related fields will be needed in
The invasive nature of some human relevant legislative and regulatory bodies to
augmentation technologies challenges public ensure regulation remains fully up-to-date with
trust in them, meaning future technology
273 Research interview, 23 June 2023b.

278 Burwell et al. (2017).
technological development while facilitating • Improving the quality and accessibility

continued innovation.279 of services: Many human augmentation
technologies connect to work-related
4.5.2. Applications and implications for applications to enhance workplace
the information environment productivity or educational inclusivity
via assistive technologies.282 From an
The technological advances described above
inclusivity perspective, similar use cases
translate into three categories of human
may emerge to improve the accessibility of
augmentation applications:
public infrastructure.283
1. Augmented senses, i.e. augmenting human
• Improvements in human-machine
sensory capabilities such as vision and
connectivity via brain-computer interfaces
hearing.
– particularly in increasing the amount
2. Augmented action, i.e. improving the and quality of data transfer – may provide
physical aspects of human activity. benefits such as enhanced prosthetic-limb
3. Augmented cognition, i.e. monitoring control and improved neurorehabilitation
and analysing human cognition and techniques. A related application is
developing corresponding technological understanding human physical and
enablement.280 psychological processes to improve
human-machine connectivity applications
These categories map onto several broad types
and facilitate AI system training.284
of use:
Human augmentation raises three main
• Improving physical and psychological
implications for the information environment:
attributes to optimise performance
a) improving human capabilities in absorbing,
and quality of life: Existing research
processing and analysing information, b)
on societal perceptions of human
mitigating barriers to and introducing new
augmentation technologies indicates that
modes of interpersonal communication,
most individuals associate their benefits
and c) generating new forms of social
with physical health improvements (e.g.
manipulation. First, human augmentation may
general health and strength) and sensory
improve human capabilities in absorbing,
capabilities (e.g. eyesight).281 Though
processing and analysing information. For
less commonly associated with human
example, brain-computer interfaces are
augmentation, applying the above-
anticipated to assist in decision-making and
described technologies may also augment
problem-solving, enabling the human mind to
psychological and mental functions such
consume and process greater quantities and
as brainpower, memory and information
varieties of information more efficiently and
capacity.
effectively. Embedded computing through

281 Kaspersky (2020).
282 Pataranutaporn (2020), Frackiewicz (2023), Binnendijk et al. (2020).
283 Frackiewicz (2023).
59
brain-computer interface technology may 4.5.3. Cultural implications

also support learning activities, enabling
Though ethical, technological and regulatory
technology-assisted accelerated learning.285
barriers may constrain the degree of human
Second, human augmentation may mitigate augmentation achievable in the future,
barriers to and introduce new modes of significant levels of human augmentation
interpersonal communication. Regarding may raise questions about underlying notions
communication inclusivity, assistive human of personhood and culture as a human
augmentation technologies may facilitate or interpersonal construct. This stems
communication for individuals with hearing or from the challenge human augmentation
speech impediments.286 At the higher end of the presents to understanding human identity
technology development spectrum, advances and personhood in a world of increasingly
in brain-computer interfaces may translate technology-enabled human functioning.290
into developing brain-to-brain communication Given the direct embedding of technology into
technologies, leading to entirely new modes of human cognitive, physical and psychological
interpersonal communication.287 functions, substantial levels of human
A third implication is the potential for augmentation may ‘[blur] the notions of identity
new forms of social manipulation in and of what it means to be human’, introducing
the information environment. Sensing new normative lenses on humanity and
technologies (e.g. hearing implants), in producing new stigma for those not seen as
particular, carry a risk of interference, whereby attaining those norms.291 Discussions of how
devices could be manipulated to provide human identity may evolve have, for example,
erroneous information to the end user.288 posited that technology-enablement enables
Such manipulation of sensory inputs would a ‘hybridisation of human identity’, extending
substantially amplify current threats from human personhood via artificial elements.292
artificially creating or manipulating visual For example:
and auditory information (e.g. images and • At an individual level, human augmentation
videos).289 Therefore, human augmentation technologies such as brain-computer
could undermine end users’ cognitive safety interfaces may provide opportunities
and influence their ability to assess the for individuals with pre-existing
credibility of information they receive while communication impairments to gain or
using human augmentation technologies. re-gain modes of self-expression.293 This
development may provide opportunities
for individuals’ abilities to express their

286 Cinel et al. (2019).
289 Maras & Alexandrou (2018).
290 Research interview, 23 June 2023a.
292 Babushkina & Votsis (2021).
293 Sample et al. (2019).
identity through un-inhibited expression Societal divides in human augmentation levels

and interactions. However, researchers may also emerge from divergent ethical
have raised concerns about the same and cultural views on and, thus, acceptance
technologies’ potential effects on a user’s of human augmentation technologies. For
sense of self, particularly if the technology example, some communities may plausibly
becomes deeply embedded into an have ethical and cultural reservations against
individual’s bodily schema and affects their human augmentation,297 potentially extending
self-understanding and perceived bodily cultural divides between communities due to
autonomy.294 the differential uptake of human augmentation
technologies. Technological enablement that
• At a broader societal level, existing
changes society’s understanding of human
literature reflects on whether technological
personhood and identity raises the question of
augmentation fundamentally changes
whether the concept of ‘universal human rights’
the contemporary understanding of
could remain valid or whether human rights
‘humanity’ and whether society will evolve
paradigms will inherently become divided
into ‘Homo sapiens technologicus’ through
between ‘augmented’ and ‘non-augmented’
technological enhancement.295 If human
communities.
augmentation levels vary across different
communities, this question may increase Adopting human augmentation presents
cultural polarisation between ‘augmented’ various issues for social norms and equity
and ‘non-augmented’ communities. values:
In addition, human augmentation raises • Firstly, the social dynamics of human
various issues for existing human rights augmentation adoption may include
paradigms. Augmentation as an increasingly disparities in access to relevant
accepted and inherent part of human identity technologies, thus introducing new
and personhood raises the question of whether forms of digital exclusion whereby the
to recognise human augmentation should as economically disadvantaged cannot
a human right emerges,296 extending current access the same enhancement level
debates about recognising connectivity and as other societal segments.298 Although
internet access as a fundamental human right decreased disparities in health outcomes
and the nature of the human condition. Such are a perceived benefit of human
debates may vary across national and regional augmentation technologies and related
contexts in line with existing cultural and developments such as the ‘Internet of
ethical perspectives on issues such as human Bodies’, it is unclear whether such benefits
advancement, the importance of technological would materialise. Indeed, historical
innovation versus privacy, and innovation’s role examples of healthcare innovations
in national socioeconomic development. show that technological advances may
increase healthcare costs and exacerbate

61
disparities due to pre-existing access risks rapid and widespread displacement of

barriers.299 The socioeconomic and human labour if ‘augmented humans’ can
cultural impacts of increased disparities increasingly perform essential functions
stemming from human augmentation and professions more efficiently than ‘non-
may extend inequalities, with ‘augmented’ augmented’ humans.
humans enjoying greater prosperity, social
Regarding perceptual lenses, human
status and access to services than ‘non-
augmentation may introduce two
augmented’ humans.300
contradictory dynamics in people’s ability
• Secondly, existing research draws to determine facts. By enhancing people’s
attention to human augmentation cognitive capabilities, human augmentation
technologies’ impact on disability-related technologies may improve their capacity to
perceptions, social stigmas and, perhaps, absorb more information and evaluate its
‘non-augmentation’.301 The increasing quality better, limiting the scope and impact
availability of assistive technology and of cognitive biases (e.g. confirmation biases
applications that can restore cognitive and echo chambers). This effect may apply to
and physical capabilities may amplify absorbing cultural knowledge and information
the stigma attached to disability as relevant to reproducing cultural identities (e.g.
societal expectations of what constitutes cultural history). However, as already noted,
‘normal’ human capabilities will rise.302 this opportunity must be balanced against
This may undermine norms and values the risks of malign manipulation that directly
related to equity and non-discrimination challenges people’s ability to assess the
while challenging existing commitments information they receive.304
to inclusivity in different cultures. More
widely, however, if human augmentation 4.5.4. Summary and ecological
technologies become more ubiquitous, interactions
sociocultural attitudes towards them may
Human augmentation technologies may
result in societal, physical or psychological
significantly alter people’s future ability to
pressures on people to use them. As such,
navigate and engage with information, shifting
individuals with personal reservations
many process dynamics in the information
about technological augmentation may
environment. Across the ecological interactions
experience new forms of social stigma.303
captured in Table 4.5 below, two factors
Adopting human augmentation technologies emerge as potential enablers of technology-
also raises issues about social values linked mediated cultural change:
to labour protection and the nature of work.
• Firstly, substantial human augmentation
This mirrors the automation issues discussed
levels (e.g. capabilities approaching
in Section 4.1, whereby human augmentation
299 Lee et al. (2020).

303 Lee et al. (2020).
trans-humanism) may be socioculturally hierarchies and divisions between the

disruptive by changing notions of ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’. Such hierarchies
personhood and human identity. A more may exert extensive sociocultural effects,
intrinsic association of technological particularly if technology generates
enablement with human personhood may substantial differences between
challenge the assumptions underpinning ‘augmented’ and ‘non-augmented’ humans.
the current understanding of cultural
However, these scenarios are highly uncertain
norms and paradigms, such as universal
and may not materialise in the GAN timeframe.
human rights.
Alongside possible technological limits, ethical
• Secondly, advanced human augmentation and normative considerations may constrain
may challenge existing interpersonal the human augmentation levels available to
sociality forms and yield new social society in the GAN information environment.
Table 4.5 Ecological interactions in human augmentation
Macro • A changing cultural understanding of labour protection and work resulting from the
rapid displacement of labour generated by human augmentation;
• Societal polarisation stemming from divergent ethical and cultural acceptance of
human augmentation.
Meso • The emergence of new social hierarchies and disparities in technology access, with
implications for societal structures and relationships between communities and the
state as a technology regulator;
• The potential amplification of disability-related social stigma.
Micro • The emergence of new forms of interpersonal sociality through human augmentation,
including direct brain-to-brain communication;
• The potential breakdown of sociality between ‘augmented’ and ‘non-augmented’
humans.
Self • The potential hybridisation of human identity, with people’s sense of self increasingly
connected with technological enablement;
• Reduced barriers to self-expression among those with communication impairments and
other conditions.
63
4.6. Information security malign information, including artificially-

manipulated, highly authentic audio-visual
content (known as ‘deep-fakes’).306 The
4.6.1. Key characteristics and future trends
development of such methods has already
While emerging technologies are frequently begun, although there are persistent
considered enablers of disorder or risk challenges with the robustness, reliability
in the information environment (e.g. via across different data environments,
technological exploration to facilitate more scalability and portability of existing
authentic mis- and disinformation), the GAN detection models.307 Similarly, research
information environment will likely be shaped has already begun to explore applying AI to
by technologies providing information security. cyber defence to provide solutions towards
This technological system is concerned with autonomous, real-time identification and
technologically safeguarding three principles of mitigation of the expanding array of cyber
information security305 across all processes in threats. This promises to help address the
the information environment: continuing sophistication of cyber threats,
1. Confidentiality: ensuring information is only e.g. intelligent malware, automated cyber-
accessible to authorised users. attack operations, phishing attacks and
social engineering underpinned by malign
2. Integrity: ensuring information is accurate, AI exploitation.308
complete, trustworthy and only alterable by
authorised users. • Technological advances in cryptography:
Civilian and military sectors widely use
3. Availability: ensuring information remains encryption mechanisms to protect
accessible to authorised users and information transfer. Future encryption will
protected from intentional denial or likely involve sophisticated cryptographic
disruption. techniques and mathematical algorithms
Several technological advances play a role in that provide high data storage and
this technological system, including: communications security. Such encryption
methods go beyond conventional
• Applying AI techniques to information
techniques to protect against increasingly
security: Advances in AI capabilities have
advanced information threats. Of particular
driven increasing interest in its application
interest is the development of encryption
for information security, including
based on the principles of quantum
detecting malign information and other
mechanics (i.e. quantum encryption) or
cyber threats. In the future, AI techniques
securing communication networks against
such as machine learning and computer
advances in quantum computing (i.e. post-
vision may provide reliable detection of
quantum cryptography).309
305 Kim & Solomon (2013).

306 See, for example, Blue & Traynor (2022), U.S. Army DEVCOM Army Research Laboratory Public Affairs (2021), Ruhr-
University Bochum (2020).
307 U.S. Army DEVCOM Army Research Laboratory Public Affairs (2021).
308 Burke (2020).
309 Princeton University CITP (2019).
• Blockchain and distributed ledger interface) has been proposed to allow internet
applications: Distributed ledger users to design and enforce their own rules
technology, including the blockchain, is about the information shared about their
commonly associated with decentralised activities in digital spaces.314
data governance, as data is recorded
These and other future advances in data
and verified in a more transparent
protection and privacy safeguards are
and distributed way via peer-to-peer
considered key features of a future web
mechanisms.310 Since distributed ledger
architecture known as Web 3.0 (Web3), i.e. the
technologies are still developing, their
evolution of the World Wide Web. Though Web
future capabilities and applications
3.0 is still being developed and has different
remain uncertain. However, the potential
technological features, one of its central
for blockchain technology to improve
elements is the expanded use of the blockchain
information security is already being
for a more decentralised web architecture.
explored due to features that can help
Such decentralisation and development of a
‘verify the legitimacy and provenance of
peer-to-peer network hope to grant individuals
digital content in a highly trusted, secured
more control over data, activities and content
and decentralised manner’.311 Among
interactions on the web, thus limiting the level
other uses, the technologies are thus
of data collection and centralisation from
associated with simplifying and increasing
large private sector actors who are the core
transparency in business interactions,
providers of Web 2.0 services (e.g. Amazon,
improving privacy and security in big-
Google and Meta).315
data processing, disintermediating data
management and record keeping (e.g.
4.6.2. Applications and implications for
in governmental management of citizen
the information environment
records), and facilitating secure data
exchange across the IoT.312 As each security-focused information
technology has a distinct objective and
There are also developments aiming to grant
use, applications will also be varied in how
users of internet-enabled services greater
individual end users utilise them and how they
control over their personal data. For example,
are incorporated into wider organisational and
context-aware personal data management
sectoral solutions (e.g. detecting and verifying
(PDM) or advances in personal information
information shared on social media). In the
management systems (PIMS) could give
future, the technologies may be combined
people greater autonomy in determining,
with or integrated into other solutions to
maintaining and developing their identity
provide improved, holistic solutions for
in online spaces in the future.313 Similarly,
information security:
a ‘human API’ (application programming
310 Casino et al. (2019).

311 Rana et al. (2022).
312 Casino et al. (2019).
315 Digital Regulation Cooperation Forum (2023).
65
• From an end user’s perspective, advanced of other technological advances on the

information security may take on new safety of the information environment for
formats to help them understand their individual end users. As this environment
information environments and distinguish will likely feature a wider variety of more
between real and manipulated content. sophisticated mis-and-disinformation
For example, researchers developing threats, solutions for their detection limit
AI-enabled ‘deep-fake’ detection their negative effects on individuals and
methods suggest the techniques could wider communities. Similarly, post-quantum
be embedded into vision-based devices cryptography will safeguard against the
(similar to AR interfaces such as goggles) risks of developing quantum computing for
to provide continuous end-user support in communication and information-sharing
their specific environment.316 processes. These scenarios see information
security as a key intermediary factor in how
• At the sectoral level, experts have
the information environment may look in the
discussed the potential development
2035–2050 period.
of advanced, consolidated warning
systems to help safeguard physical Secondly, as mentioned regarding Web 3.0,
and digital communities by identifying developing information security, validation
emerging information risks and harms.317 and privacy-enhancing technologies will
Such systems would see information likely support the redistribution of power in
security applications integrated with internet governance and the information
new models of citizen participation to environment. While the information-services
provide decentralised, participatory market is currently heavily concentrated in
community safeguarding approaches. a few online platforms, the development
Wider organisational and societal changes of Web 3.0 and related applications seeks
are associated with this new form of to move away from market centralisation
community governance in offline and and redistribute power and data control to
online spaces, including the emergence individual end users.319 This shift could benefit
of a ‘new class of professionals – coders, information consumers while presenting
information curators, literacy advisors potential challenges by removing trusted
– [to] help digital platforms encourage intermediaries in service provision (e.g.
democratic behaviours [and] enable a reducing service quality and increasing the
culture of accountability in parts of the complexity of accountability structures).320
internet that is deeply trusted’.318 Moreover, technical decentralisation of the
web architecture may not necessarily translate
Two key implications of these applications
into the political redistribution of power to end
and the technologies discussed above exist
users because implementing Web 3.0 may still
for the information environment. Firstly, they
centralise market power, e.g. due to the nature
mitigate the potential negative implications
316 U.S. Army DEVCOM Army Research Laboratory Public Affairs (2021).
318 Pew Research Center (2022b, 6).
of consensus-based validation mechanisms mistakenly flag information as false). The

embedded in Web 3.0 architecture.321 greater risk of false positives and negatives
means that using AI may have negative
Emerging technologies offer potentially
implications for the freedom of expression
significant benefits for information security and
in digital spaces. For example, models may
information environment governance. However,
reproduce biases in understanding the
several factors may hinder their impact or
language of minority cultural communities
increase uncertainty about it:
and be systematically more likely to detect
• Firstly, there are uncertainties about and remove content produced by a specific
long lead times in developing solutions community.
such as encryption algorithms that can
• Thirdly, applications aiming to improve
withstand emerging threats for rapidly
information’s confidentiality, integrity and
advancing computing technologies. For
availability may not always effectively
example, existing work on the transition
uphold all information security principles.
to post-quantum cryptography shows that
For example, while blockchain technologies
phasing out and replacing compromised
are considered to benefit data integrity
encryption methods can take ‘a decade or
through decentralised information
more’, suggesting that public and private-
architectures, such benefits depend on
sector organisations will need to invest a
how a blockchain solution is designed and
significant amount of time and resources
implemented. As such, some blockchain
in protecting sensitive data.322 Therefore,
solutions may suffer from ‘poor use of
a critical consideration regarding the
cryptography, or poor implementation,
impact of information security solutions
[thus compromising] the security of a
on the information environment is how
distributed ledger’.324 Blockchain-based
quickly they can be developed and keep
applications may also be susceptible to
up with technological advances that
hacking and privacy risks, as data saved on
may be exploited for malign purposes or
a blockchain is visible to all that blockchain
undermine information security.
network’s users.325
• Secondly, concerns have already
been raised about the unintended 4.6.3. Cultural implications
consequences of AI applications in
The primary cultural implications of future
areas such as mis- and disinformation
information security systems relate to
detection.323 In particular, using AI models
people’s agency, their trust in the information
that lack explainability and risk reproducing
environment and the evolution of data-privacy-
gendered, racial or other biases may
and-protection norms.
challenge detection by flagging false
positives (i.e. situations when models

322 Princeton University CITP (2019).
323 Woodley (2020).
324 National Security Cyber Centre (2021).
67
The implications for end-user agency feature the utility of tools providing better security
heavily in debates about the future character safeguards.330 Secondly, there may be
of digital spaces.326 In this context, advances increasing pressures to limit encryption under
in information security solutions, particularly the control of individual citizens, with state
encryption, potentially grant individuals more and private-sector actors constraining end
agency and autonomy in the information users’ access to advanced information security
environment. 327 As emerging technologies technologies.331 As such, people’s autonomy
such as AR, MR, VR and the IoT put increasing and agency in digital spaces may ultimately be
pressure on data protection and privacy constrained by commercial interests, sectoral
safeguards, the development of Web 3.0 competition or political/regulatory action.
and associated tools (such as advanced Lastly, as explained above, a technologically-
encryption, mesh networks, digital passports enabled decentralisation of internet governance
and human APIs) will likely increase people’s may not necessarily empower individuals
control over their data and digital identities.328 because of the potentially contradictory
Such developments may positively impact dynamics in implementing Web 3.0.
the cultural character of digital environments
Information security incidents and the
by translating end-user empowerment
availability or absence of technological tools
into democratised, participatory internet-
to protect against them may also impact
governance structures.329 They may also
how societies understand democratic
alter the balance of power in the information
norms and their manifestation in the virtual
environment between individuals, private
information environment. While advances in
sector actors and governments – a dynamic
some technological areas (such as AR, MR,
closely linked to individualism in many
VR and AI applications) are associated with
national cultures.
digital spaces’ increasing vulnerability to state-
However, several factors may mitigate these sponsored surveillance and other malign uses,
developments’ impact. Firstly, the digital the development and widespread adoption of
literacy people can develop to effectively use information security tools may counterbalance
privacy-enhancing and data-protection tools such advances’ effect to uphold democratic
and participate in effective internet governance values in digital spaces.332
is uncertain. While some anticipate that
Advances in information security also have
digital literacy will gradually improve, allowing
important implications for how society
individuals to navigate different technologies’
understands and attaches normative
risks and opportunities effectively, others
importance to privacy and data protection.
expect end users to struggle to keep pace
The parallel development of technologies
with technological innovation, undermining
capable of threatening and safeguarding

information, communication and data will likely online discourse due to AI-bias challenges
extend the current public debate on the value and the opaque, black-box nature of
of privacy and data protection – particularly many of the models online platforms
whether extensively collecting personal leverage to detect and remove mis- and
data without sufficient privacy safeguards disinformation.333 While advancing AI
outweighs the benefits end users gain from explainability and mitigating its biases will
the providers and platforms collecting such be vital in improving these applications’
data. Without advanced information security reliability, an inherent element of societal
solutions, large-scale data and security trust shapes how effective AI-enabled
breaches may significantly increase a culture’s models are in increasing end users’ trust
normative privacy and data-protection values. in the online content they engage with.
Related equity questions also stem from the If perceptions of AI bias persist, using AI
importance of privacy for populations with techniques to moderate digital content
protected characteristics, given potential may have unintended consequences
equity implications for populations facing more by undermining end users’ trust in the
significant barriers to accessing information- information deemed factual by AI content-
security solutions – further compromising moderation models. It may also lead to
already-vulnerable communities’ privacy and perceived disadvantages or inequities by
data protection. different communities, if they perceive AI
models to reproduce bias against them
Regarding perceptual lenses, applications
through content moderation, potentially
such as AI-enabled mis- and disinformation
amplifying polarisation in digital spaces.
detection have clear beneficial implications
for end users’ ability to understand and • Secondly, though many platforms may
categorise facts – particularly for their implement tools such as AI-enabled
ability to identify manipulated content and detection across their networks, detecting
distinguish facts from fiction in digital spaces. mis- and disinformation also relies on
If technological solutions such as AI-enabled gatekeepers such as journalists and
detection become sufficiently reliable and content creators. Gatekeepers’ lack of
widely scaled across social media platforms, familiarity with advanced technological
they could facilitate a broad cultural shift in the tools may ultimately limit their benefits for
information environment’s virtual dimension, those consuming information. It may also
significantly improving end users’ trust in the yield unintended consequences, such as if
online content they interact, helping establish gatekeepers misuse technology-enabled
credibility of trustworthy institutions while tools and lose credibility among critical
restricting the reach of malign actors. audiences.
However, several drawbacks of AI-enabled and • Thirdly, research on the implications of
other technological solutions may limit these using AI in media and journalism indicates
benefits or have unintended sociocultural that adopting AI in these content-oriented
consequences: professions may produce significant
structural shifts in media markets,
• Firstly, as noted above, there are concerns
potentially introducing disparities and
about the use of AI in the moderation of
333 Woodley (2020).

69
power shifts between different market increasing use of and reliance on AI techniques
actors depending on who has access in supporting functions such as detection and
to advanced technologies and who verification may also have a role in defining
does not.334 Notably, adopting more the division of human and machine labour
technologically advanced (and thus across professions, thus shaping the public
costly) solutions to enable functions such debate around the cultural appropriateness and
as information verification may create acceptability of AI uses.
new market barriers for smaller market
actors such as local news media. From a 4.6.4. Summary and ecological
cultural perspective, this may limit such interactions
actors’ role and influence in public debate
Information security is a crucial dimension
while increasing that of large media
of the GAN information environment that
organisations that may be inherently more
may amplify or mitigate privacy, information
disconnected from local communities.
integrity and reliability challenges from other
The second-order consequences of these
technological advances. Current discourse
dynamics may be increased competition
suggests that with greater emphasis on
between a few significant actors in the
individual data control and decentralised
media landscape, already identified as a
internet governance, developing Web 3.0 may
trend contributing to the so-called ‘Truth
significantly change online-space cultures.
Decay’ effect (i.e. the decreasing role of
However, it is unclear whether Web 3.0’s
facts and analysis in public life as media
conceptual basis and other information
organisations focus more on opinionated
security solutions could be effectively
content aligned with their audiences’
implemented or whether it may lead to
existing attitudes and beliefs).335
unintended consequences.
The increasing use of AI and other
While such impacts are uncertain, the speed
technologies for detecting mis- and
of information security advances could be
disinformation may also have implications for
a key consideration regarding the cultural
the character of content-oriented professions
impact of emerging technologies as a whole.
such as journalism. Existing work notes that
Notably, many technologies may have more
adopting AI-driven tools in journalism may lead
disruptive effects if the development of
to ‘potentially far-reaching structural changes in
information security solutions lags. Table 4.6
internal routines and divisions of responsibility
(below) summarises the remaining ecological
between humans and machines’.336 While
interactions between information security and
these changes will likely be chiefly driven by
culture.
advances in generative AI (see Section 4.1), the
334 Helberger et al. (2019).

336 Helberger et al. (2019).
Table 4.6 Ecological interactions in information security
Macro • Extending public debate over the value of privacy and data protection, potentially
embedding privacy as a normative imperative in internet governance;
• Developing ethical and regulatory safeguards to mitigate the negative implications of
content moderation for freedom of expression.
Meso • The changing cultural character of digital environments towards democratised and
participatory modes of internet governance;
• The changing power balance between individuals, private sector actors and
governments in the information environment;
• Potential structural shifts in media markets due to greater use of technology-enabled
verification in the media.
Micro • Increased trust in interpersonal sociality stemming from improved detection and
verification tools.
Self • Greater certainty in one’s data and information integrity and a sense of safety in the
information environment;
• A greater sense of individual agency in the information environment due to personal
control over one’s data and digital identity.
71
Chapter 5. Conclusions and implications

for UK Defence
This chapter discusses this study’s conclusions, societal understanding of culture. While some
drawing on the evidence collection and analysis impacts are unique to each technological
described in the report and our reflections on system, several cross-cutting themes emerge:
the major themes. The first section summarises
• Cultural identities: Our results indicate
and discusses the primary cross-cutting
that cultural changes may result from
research findings, while the second discusses
changing delineations of cultural identities,
implications for UK Defence.
particularly those based on demographic
and geographic characteristics. As
5.1. Summary and discussion of technological change facilitates greater
research findings information consumption and interpersonal
communication in the virtual world,
In the 2035–2050 period, the information experiences in those environments
environment will likely be shaped by may acquire greater significance for an
multifarious technological advances across individual’s perceived cultural identity than
multiple S&T research disciplines, from cultural elements bound to their immediate
developing new technologies to incrementally demographic environment (e.g. the local
advancing existing ones. Technological community or the nation-state). Cultural
advances in AI, VR, MR and AR technologies, identities formed at the transnational or
bio- and neurotechnology, sensing and sub-national level around shared interests,
computing are expected to impact how we attitudes and beliefs may become
consume, share and interact with information, increasingly prominent. The increasing
particularly through interactions with other integration of technology into cultural
technologies. This study aimed to explore identity may generate additional significant
the relationship between such changes in effects, including the potential hybridisation
the information environments’ technological of human identity through technological
landscape and potential future cultural change. enablement (discussed in Section 4.5) and
This study explored the potential cultural the formation of cultural identities based
impacts of six technological systems capturing on norms and values relating to technology
technological innovation in different aspects use (e.g. some communities may
of the information environment: automated become normatively opposed to certain
information systems (particularly decision- technologies while others champion it).
making and content-generation systems), • Assessing emerging technologies’ impact
virtual environments, augmented and mixed on cultural norms and values consistently
reality, advanced connectivity, human highlighted three issues:
augmentation and information security.
Each technological system presents multiple » Privacy-associated norms and values:
implications for cultural identities, norms, Maintaining privacy was consistently
values and the perceptual lenses informing reiterated as a challenge across most
technological systems discussed due technologies reflect accountability

to the quantity and diversity of data that concerns and the general difficulty
advanced technology requires from of establishing and maintaining
end users. Advances in AI, AR, MR, VR, democratic principles and positive
connectivity and human augmentation behaviours in the information
are all associated with increased environment, particularly its virtual
pressures on the right to privacy, partly dimension. The potentially increased
due to the increasingly seamless anonymisation of online interactions
integration of physical and virtual reality through virtual reality and increased
that blurs the boundaries between automation of some information-
physical and virtual personhood. related functions raise multiple
However, advances in information challenges for establishing who is
security and web architecture accountable for harmful outcomes in
decentralisation through concepts such and outside virtual spaces. A related
as Web 3.0 also promise a fundamental issue is the evolving role of commercial
shift in end users’ data control, online companies in governing the
activity and content interaction. These information environment, particularly
advances reflect the accumulation online platforms such as social media,
and decentralisation of information future virtual environments and other
governance power between end users, spaces. While some technological
public-sector organisations and private- advances promise to elevate end
sector actors, yielding contradictory users’ agency and autonomy, others
enablers and barriers for privacy appear to constrain it, enabling leading
safeguards. commercial actors to consolidate
greater control over information
» Equity-based norms and values: Future
spaces and raising questions about
technological advances frequently raise
keeping them accountable for future
questions about access equality and
commercial strategies that may clash
technological adoption and enablement
with cultural norms and principles, such
patterns and how they might vary
as the right to privacy.
across and within populations. Though
some technologies are considered • Concerning perceptual lenses, our
beneficial for reducing socioeconomic analysis of the six technological systems
inequities, there are concerns they indicates that current trends in amplifying
may exacerbate them or generate cognitive biases and exacerbating
new patterns of technological difficulties distinguishing facts from fiction
exclusion. Further identified challenges will likely persist. The impact of greater
include how diversity, equity and personalisation of information-related
inclusion value are incorporated into services through technologies such as
technological development to mitigate AR, MR, VR and human augmentation is
the reproduction or amplification of a significant concern. While promising a
existing gender, racial or other biases in better overall experience for end users,
technological solutions. it may undermine the collective ability to
identify common experiences based on
» Thirdly, anticipated regulatory
objective facts and analysis. This possibility
challenges relating to many emerging
73
also applies to communities’ ability to fundamental questions about human

establish common cultural touchpoints identity, particularly the implications
and how they develop and reproduce of technologically-enabled human
collective cultural identities. Additional augmentation for what we understand
concerns stem from the possibility that as the biological foundations of human
personalisation and other technological experiences. The technology-led
features may amplify inherent cognitive hybridisation of human identity raises the
biases in people’s engagement with possibility of a future scenario overhauling
information and increase social perceptions of the ‘self’ and increasingly
manipulation risks by enabling access to embedding them within technological
more immersive and, thus, more believable enablement, leading to disruptive
and influential content. sociocultural effects.
It is also essential to consider how new and • At the micro level, tensions between
emerging technologies may affect societal personalised human experiences and
stakeholders’ ability to navigate or engender the relationality by which communities
cultural change. The six technological and societies define common cultural
systems discussed in this study illustrate, touchpoints may generate substantial
on the one hand, how social movements cultural change. Many technological
might leverage technologies to bring about advances this study considered aim to
sociocultural transformation (e.g. by using better support individuals in everyday
AR and MR in advocacy). On the other, they life by tailoring services, augmenting an
show how governments and political regimes individual’s capabilities and individualising
might exploit such technologies for social information flows. While these seek
manipulation (e.g. via internet shutdowns or to benefit human prosperity, they may
persistent virtual-space surveillance). As social challenge people’s ability to collectively
movements provide a crucial cultural change identify and agree on the nature of physical,
mechanism via advocacy and other means, societal, political and economic realities
cultural change dynamics may themselves and, consequently, culture.
become more closely interlinked with using
• At the micro level, many technologies
new and emerging technologies.
associated with the GAN information
Because of the significant uncertainties environment shift interpersonal
surrounding the nature and adoption of new interaction from the physical to the virtual
and emerging technologies in the 2035–2050 environment. In particular, the potential for
period, it was challenging for this study to widespread adoption of AR, MR and VR
characterise whether advances in the six technologies indicates more significant
technological systems will lead to cultural technological mediation of many or all
change or whether new technological realities aspects of interpersonal sociality, affecting
will integrate into existing cultural frameworks. individuals’ interactions and relationships,
However, several areas of possible cultural physical spaces and infrastructure. This
change were evident across technological increasing relocation of human activity into
systems at different ecological-framework virtual spaces may erode the cultural value
levels: of physical artefacts (e.g. architecture)
while also changing the make-up of
• At the personal level, elements of
physical environments such as cities
anticipated technological change raise
through technological integration and 5.2. Implications for UK Defence

connectivity.
The future information environment is
• At the macro level, substantial cultural
inherently uncertain, as are the associated
effects are anticipated from the rapid
cultural and technological developments likely
innovative pace characterising many
shaping it in the 2035–2050 period. As the
areas of S&T innovation. Discussions with
information landscape evolves, UK Defence will
SMEs in the study highlighted historical
require a more refined understanding of these
technological advancement examples with
dynamics and their direct and indirect impacts.
potential lessons for navigating societal
and cultural adaptation to emerging This study identified three sets of implications
technologies. However, the innovative pace for UK Defence. These concern UK Defence’s
will likely be far more rapid in the future ability to:
technology landscape – a key difference 1. Understand future trends in the cultural
from these past examples. As the rapid impact of emerging technologies.
pace of technological advancement puts
pressure on the societal and institutional 2. Effectively operate in a changing
ability to absorb and adapt to it, culturally information environment.
integrating technology may become more 3. Navigate a changing sociocultural context
challenging, yielding technology-mediated for the development and exploitation of
cultural change. emerging technologies.
These implications are summarised in Table 5.1
and described in the remainder of this section.
Table 5.1 Summary of implications of the study findings for UK Defence
Category Implications and recommendations for Defence
Understanding the • UK Defence should invest in developing cultural topographies to ground

cultural impacts of future analyses of the sociocultural context of technological development in
emerging technologies the UK and among key allies and adversaries.
• Future analyses of the cultural implications of emerging technologies
should focus on technological capabilities and applications as a starting
point.
• Defence may benefit from complementing future and foresight studies
with historical research to understand recurrent dynamics and trends in the
cultural impact of technological innovation.
75
Category Implications and recommendations for Defence
Operating in a • Defence should continue monitoring emerging research on the implications

changing information of AR, MR and VR technologies, human augmentation on social
environment manipulation, and relevant mitigations (e.g. detection and verification tools).
• Defence will require a thorough understanding of the evolving nature of
perceptual lenses and its audiences’ and personnel’s (diminishing) ability
to identify and understand facts. It should also invest in understanding
strategies and approaches for communicating with audiences in such an
environment, such as emphasising the explainability of evidence in counter-
misinformation efforts.
• Defence should remain cognisant of the impact of technological change
on the formation of cultural identities, particularly future trends in public
associations with a national cultural identity.
Navigating a changing • Defence should explore and monitor the cultural norms and values around
sociocultural context using key emerging technologies and how these may impact perceptions of
for developing and what constitutes ‘acceptable use’ in a Defence context.
exploiting emerging • Defence may benefit from a more in-depth understanding of the future
technologies dynamics of technology access, related inequities and digital exclusion
patterns.
5.2.1. Understanding the cultural impacts change at a more granular level and establish
of emerging technologies the likelihood of different scenarios and
how these may affect Defence strategically,
This study’s themes emphasise the inextricable
operationally and tactically. To support this,
connections between technological innovation
Defence should extend the study’s conceptual
and culture; future studies investigating
framework for understanding the impact of
technological advances and their implications
future technologies on culture, including:
for Defence should remain contextualised
in sociocultural trends. While this study was • Holistically applying the complete
premised on the theoretical assumption that framework through more comprehensive
technologies are actants in cultural change, it is studies, perhaps targeting fewer
evident that cultural and technological changes technologies in greater depth;
should be viewed through a co-productive lens
• Repeatedly applying the framework to build
rather than as linear and unidirectional impacts.
a comprehensive, coherent research base
Therefore, understanding the sociocultural
on the cultural impact of new and emerging
context of technological innovation (e.g. societal
technologies; and
perceptions of technology and the norms
and values informing them) is necessary to • Testing and refining the framework,
understand whether and how technology may incorporating lessons from different
ultimately enact cultural change or become studies.
culturally embedded in its existing form. We propose three related recommendations
This study provides an initial conceptual for this work:
exploration of these dynamics. UK Defence • Firstly, we recommend that Defence
should build on this baseline to understand the invest in developing cultural topographies
interactions between cultural and technological
for understanding the most pertinent or may vary. Lastly, regulating emerging
important cultural environments. This technologies may increasingly follow an
is likely to include topographies of key application-oriented approach rather than
national cultures, such as those of the UK, a technology-driven perspective, better
and critical allies and adversaries to enable captured through an applications-focused
Defence to understand the sociocultural lens.
context shaping technological impact in
• Lastly, Defence may benefit from
the UK and how this may differ between
complementing future and foresight-
the UK and its allies and adversaries.
focused studies with historical research to
Exploring these differences using a
understand recurrent dynamics and trends
cultural topography would provide a more
in the cultural impact of technological
grounded perspective on how adopting and
innovation. For example, this study
using emerging technologies may differ
highlighted recurring cases of ‘technology
between the UK, its allies and adversaries
hype’ around emerging technologies and
in the future. Developing topographies
concerns about sociocultural impacts
for national or geographically-bounded
that sometimes do and sometimes do
cultures could be complemented by
not materialise. Comparative analysis of
exploring transnational or subnational
these cases may help Defence clarify the
cultural formations, such as delineated
conditions in which technologies may
online communities or ideological
integrate into culture versus those where
movements (e.g. conservative and liberal
they become actants of cultural change. A
political communities).
second area of interest for Defence may be
• Secondly, we recommend that future exploring historical case studies where war
analyses of the cultural implications or armed conflict catalysed technological
of emerging technologies focus innovation.337 These cases may provide
more on technological capabilities valuable lessons in understanding the
and applications. As many relevant conditions in which organisations can
technologies (e.g. AI) have a broad and rapidly adapt to new technologies and how
diverse range of uses, understanding their they are socioculturally perceived.
cultural implications requires clarity about
their possible use and application. As 5.2.2. Operating in a changing information
such, analysing capabilities or applications environment
may better indicate the opportunities,
The technological and sociocultural trends
risks and cultural implications associated
described in this report have various
with technological change. It may also
implications for Defence’s ability to navigate the
help clarify a technology’s precise role
information environment. Three implications
as an actant, as different developers and
Defence should explore further are as follows:
market dynamics may operate in different
technological applications and end users’ • Firstly, one of the most significant
motivations, attitudes and behaviours impacts of emerging technologies on
337 A selection of historical technological-change cases were recently examined for the Dstl High-Level Decision Support
programme as part of research on new and emerging technologies’ impact on operational and strategic advantage.
This research could be built upon to identify the sociocultural aspects of high-impact technological innovations.
77
the information threat landscape will • Thirdly, Defence should remain cognisant
likely stem from manipulative uses of of the impact of technological change
augmented and virtual reality spaces on the formation of cultural identities,
and human augmentation. As discussed particularly in the UK. Given Defence’s
in Chapter 4, these concerns stem from strong association with the nation-state,
the combination of two factors, namely the UK population’s increasing dissociation
that a) emerging research indicates more from a nation-state cultural identity and
immersive digital experiences may be the emergence of new cultural identities
more likely to influence an individual’s may significantly affect UK Defence’s
attitudes, thoughts and feelings, and b) relationship with the public, including public
there is significant uncertainty about how perceptions of Defence and the perceived
to detect and mitigate manipulation, such value of UK Defence to national prosperity.
as spreading of mis-and-disinformation, Further potential implications include
in an augmented or virtual reality setting. issues such as military recruitment and
As malign actors may exploit these the Defence budget. Similar trends may be
characteristics with direct implications evident in other countries, which Defence
for UK Defence, Defence should continue should monitor to anticipate potential
monitoring emerging research on changes in Defence policies among allies
the implications of AR, MR and VR and partners with possible implications for
technologies and human augmentation the UK.
on social manipulation and relevant
mitigations (e.g. detection and verification 5.2.3. Navigating a changing sociocultural
tools). context for developing and exploiting
emerging technologies
• Secondly, the evolving nature of perceptual
lenses and the (diminishing) ability of The third set of implications relates to
Defence’s audiences and personnel sociocultural trends affecting how different
to identify and understand facts may actors, including UK Defence, can utilise
directly impact UK Defence. Since some emerging technologies in the information
technological systems may increase environment. These are as follows:
people’s difficulty distinguishing truth from
• Firstly, Defence should explore and
fiction, Defence will need to understand
continuously monitor the cultural norms
the implications of a future scenario
and values around using key emerging
where discourse and audience attitudes
technologies and how these may impact
and opinions are less informed by
perceptions of acceptable use within
objective facts and evidence or where
the Defence context. An example is the
audiences are less likely to agree on
evolving perceptions of automation and AI
them. Moreover, Defence should seek to
applications that shape acceptance levels
understand strategies and approaches
of military uses of autonomous systems.
for communicating with audiences in this
Proactively exploring the normative context
environment, such as those emerging
of technological innovation may also
from current mis- and disinformation
help Defence understand relevant ethical
evaluation frameworks that emphasise the
and normative standards to incorporate
explainability of evidence in the context of
into technological development. Besides
counter-misinformation efforts.
helping Defence position itself as a
responsible end user aligned with societal

perceptions of acceptable technology
uses, this exploration may help establish
and maintain Defence personnel’s trust
in the technologies they may be using or
enabling.
• Secondly, Defence may benefit from a
more in-depth understanding of the
technology access’s future dynamics,
potential inequities and digital exclusion
patterns. As digital exclusion may
materialise without different audiences
from online spaces, Defence should
understand how to reach and interact
with these audiences and how access
inequities for different technologies may
inform different audiences’ attitudes and
behaviours.
79
References
Alavi, Amir H., Pengcheng Jiao, William G. Babushkina, Dina & Athanasios Votsis. 2022.
Buttlar & Nizar Lajnef. 2018. ‘Internet of Things- ‘Disruption, technology and the question of
enabled smart cities: State-of-the-art and (artificial) identity’. AI Ethics (2), 611–622. As of
future trends’. Measurement 129 (December 20 December 2023:
2018):589-606. As of 20 December 2023: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ s43681-021-00110-y
article/pii/S0263224118306912
Ball, Matthew. 2022. The Metaverse, And How
Andrews, Edmund L. 2020. ‘Using AI to it will Revolutionize Everything. New York:
Revolutionize Real-Time Holography’. Stanford Liveright.
University Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence,
Banwell, Cathy, Stanley Ulijaszek & Jane
17 August 2020. As of 20 December 2023:
Dixon. 2013. When culture impacts health:
https://hai.stanford.edu/news/
global lessons for effective health research.
using-ai-revolutionize-real-time-holography
Cambridge, MA: Academic Press.
Aranzadi, Javier. 2018. ‘The Socio-Cultural
Barbera, Pablo, John T. Jost, Jonathan
Framework of Individual Action’. In Human
Nagler, Josha A. Tucker & Richard Bonneau.
Action, Economics, and Ethics. SpringerBriefs in
2015. ‘Tweeting From Left to Right: Is Online
Economics. As of 20 December 2023:
Political Communication More Than an Echo
https://link.springer.com/
Chamber?’. Psychological Science 26(10):
chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-73912-0_5
1531-1542. As 20 December 2023:
Ariso, Jose Maria. 2017. ‘Augmented Reality’. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/
CORE. As of 20 December 2023: full/10.1177/0956797615594620
https://library.oapen.org/viewer/web/viewer.
Bellasio, Jacopo, Linda Slapakova, Fiona
html?file=/bitstream/handle/20.500.12657/314
Quimbre, Sam Stockwell & Erik Silfversten.
07/628401.pdf
2021. Human Rights in the Digital Age. Santa
Austin, Patrick Lucas. 2019. ‘What Will Smart Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation. RR-A1152-1.
Homes Look Like 10 Years From Now?’. Time. As of December 20, 2023:
com, 25 July 2019. As of 20 December 2023: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/
https://time.com/5634791/ RRA1152-1.html
smart-homes-future/
Beshaj, Lubjana, Samuel Crislip & Travis Russel.
Avignone, Ron. 2021. ‘Automated Information 2022. ‘The Quantum Internet: How DOD Can
Systems (AIS) – All You Need to Know’. Giva, Prepare’. JFQ 105, 2nd Quarter. As of 20
21 September, 2021. As of 20 December 2023: December 2023:
https://www.givainc.com/blog/index. https://ndupress.ndu.edu/
cfm/2021/9/13/automated-information- Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-105/
systems-ais-fully-explained jfq-105_6-13_Beshaj-Crislip-Russell.
pdf?ver=X_8u1dKGgAITYHtePtEykg%3d%3d
AWS. 2023. ‘What is Digital Twin Technology’.
Amazon.com. As of 20 Decemeber 2023:
https://aws.amazon.com/what-is/digital-twin/
Bessi, Alessandro & Emilio Ferrara. 2016. Buchner, Josef, Katja Butnins & Michael Kerres.
‘Social bots distort the 2016 US Presidential 2021. ‘The impact of augmented reality on
election online discussion’. First Monday cognitive load and performance: A systematic
21(11):1-14. As of 20 December 2023: review’. Journal of Computer Assisted Learning
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers. 2022(38):285-303. As of 20 December 2023:
cfm?abstract_id=2982233 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/
pdf/10.1111/jcal.12617
Binnendijk, Anika, Timothy Marler & Elizabeth
M. Bartels. 2020. Brain-Computer Interfaces: Bullock, Lilach. 2018. ‘AR And Social Media:
U.S. Military Applications and Implications, An Is Augmented Reality The Future of Social
Initial Assessment. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Media?’. Forbes, 16 November 2018. As of 20
Corporation. RR-2996-RC. As of 20 December December 2023:
2023: https://www.forbes.com/sites/
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/ lilachbullock/2018/11/16/ar-and-social-media-
RR2996.html is-augmented-reality-the-future-of-social-media/
Black, James, Linda Slapakova & Kevin Martin. Burke, Anthony. 2020. ‘Robust artificial
2022. Future Uses of Space Out to 2050: intelligence for active cyber defence’. The
Emerging threats and opportunities for the Alan Turing Institute, March 2020. As of 20
UK National Space Strategy. Santa Monica, December 2023:
Calif.:RAND Corporation. RR-A609-1. As of 19 https://www.turing.ac.uk/sites/default/
December 2023: files/2020-08/public_ai_acd_techreport_final.pdf
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/
Burwell, Sasha, Matthew Sample & Eric Racine.
RRA609-1.html
2017. ‘Ethical aspects of brain computer
Blue, Logan and Patrick Traynor. 2022. interfaces: a scoping review’. BMC Med Ethics,
‘Deepfake audio has a tell – researchers use 18(60):1-12. As of 20 December 2023:
fluid dynamics to spot artificial imposter https://bmcmedethics.biomedcentral.com/
voices’. The Conversation, 20 September 2022. articles/10.1186/s12910-017-0220-y
As of 20 December 2023:
Canales, Katie. 2021. ‘Mark Zuckerberg’s
https://theconversation.com/deepfake-audio-
metaverse could fracture the world as we know
has-a-tell-researchers-use-fluid-dynamics-to-
it — letting people ‘reality block’ things they
spot-artificial-imposter-voices-189104
disagree with and making polarization even
Boellstorff, Tom. 2015. Coming of age in worse’. Business Insider, 20 November 2021.
Second Life: an anthropologist explores the As of 20 December 2023:
virtually human. Princeton: Princeton University https://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-
Press. meta-metaverse-splinter-reality-more-2021-
11?r=US&IR=T
Boran, Marie. 2019. ‘Nanotech breakthrough
may lead to an ‘Internet of Brains’’. The Irish Caramiaux, Baptiste. ‘Research for CULT
Times, 18 April 2019. As of 20 December 2023: Committee - The Use of Artificial Intelligence
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/ in the Cultural and Creative Sectors’. Policy
technology/nanotech-breakthrough-may-lead- Department for Structural and Cohesion
to-an-internet-of-brains-1.3862178 Policies, May 2020. As of 20 December 2023:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/
RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/629220/
IPOL_BRI(2020)629220_EN.pdf
81
Casino, Fran, Thomas Dasaklis & Constantinos Cinel, Caterina, Davide Valeriani & Riccardo Poli.
Patsakis. 2019. ‘A systematic literature 2019. ‘Neurotechnologies for Human Cognitive
review of blockchain-based applications: Augmentation: Current State of the Art and
Current status, classification and open Future Prospects’. Front Hum Neurosci 13
issues’. Telematics and Informatics 36 (March (January 2019):1-24. As of 20 December 2023:
2019):55-81. As of 20 December 2023: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ PMC6365771/
article/pii/S0736585318306324
Cohen-Peckham, Eric. 2020. ‘A multiverse, not
Chandler, Jennifer, Kiah Van der Loos, Susan the metaverse’. TechCrunch, 25 February 2020
Boehnke, Jonas Beaudry, Daniel Buchman & As of 20 December 2023:
Judy Illes. 2022. ‘Brain Computer Interfaces https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/25/
and Communication Disabilities: Ethical, Legal, virtual-worlds-intro/
and Social Aspects of Decoding Speech From
Crossley, Nick. 2015. ‘Relational sociology and
the Brain’. Front. Hum. Neurosci 16 (April
culture: a preliminary framework’. International
2022):1-9. As of 20 December 2023:
Review of Sociology 25(1):65-85. As of 20
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/
December 2023:
fnhum.2022.841035/full
https://doi.org/10.1080/03906701.2014.997965
Chin, Jeannette, Vic Callaghan & Somaya
Day, Lewin. 2021. ‘Bone vibration brings typing
Ben Allouch. 2019. ‘The Internet-of-Things:
into VR’. Hackaday, 16 March 2021. As of 20
Reflections on the past, present and future
December 2023:
from a user-centered and smart environment
https://hackaday.com/2021/03/16/
perspective’. Journal of Ambient Intelligence
bone-vibration-brings-typing-into-vr/
and Smart Environments 11(1):45-69. As of 20
December 2023: Deloitte. 2023. ‘How connectivity is advancing
https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of- health care’. Deloitte.com, June 2023. As of 20
ambient-intelligence-and-smart-environments/ December 2023:
ais180506 https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/
Deloitte/us/Documents/technology-media-
Chohlas-Wood, Alex. 2020. ‘Understanding risk
telecommunications/user-friendly-connectivity-
assessment instruments in criminal justice’.
in-healthcare.pdf
Brookings, 19 June 2020, . As of 20 December
2023: Department of Homeland Security. 2022.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ Countering Foreign Malign Social Network
understanding-risk-assessment-instruments-in- Manipulation in the Homeland - Emerging
criminal-justice/ Trends: Technologies, Tactics and Techniques.
Department for Homeland Security. As of 20
Choi, Charles Q. 2021. ‘RISC-V Chip Delivers
December 2023:
Quantum-Resistant Encryption’. IEEE Spectrum,
https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2022-
17 August. As of 20 December 2023:
09/KIQ%205%20-%20Emerging%20Trends%20
https://spectrum.ieee.org/risc-v-chip-delivers-
Technologies.pdf
quantum-resistant-encryption
Depp, Michael. 2023. ‘Making Unilateral Norms
Chowdhury, Swaptik & Timothy Marler. 2022.
for Military AI Multilateral’. Lawfare, 6 April
‘The Metaverse: What It Is and Is Not’. The RAND
2023. As of 20 December 2023:
Blog, 20 June 2022. As of 20 December 2023:
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/
https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/06/the-
making-unilateral-norms-military-ai-multilateral
metaverse-what-it-is-and-is-not.html
Digital Regulation Cooperation Forum (DRCF). Frackiewicz, Marcin. 2023. ‘The Role of
2023. Insight Paper on Web3. Gov.uk, January Human Augmentation in Disability Rights and
2023. As of 20 December 2023: Accessibility’. TS2 Space, 6 March 2023. As of
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/ 20 December 2023:
government/uploads/system/uploads/ https://ts2.space/en/the-role-of-human-
attachment_data/file/1135634/DRCF_Insights_ augmentation-in-disability-rights-and-
Paper_on_Web3_-_Publication_copy_Updated.pdf accessibility/
Duncan, S Heather. 2022. ‘Researchers use Future Business Tech. 2023. ‘Augmented
blockchain to increase electric grid resiliency’. Reality in 2040: Top 9 Future Technologies’.
TechXplore, 23 November 2022. As of 20 Future Business Tech, 18 February 2023. As of
December 2023: 20 December 2023:
https://techxplore.com/news/2022-11- https://www.futurebusinesstech.com/blog/
blockchain-electric-grid-resiliency.html augmented-reality-in-2040-top-9-future-
technologies
Dwivedi, Yogesh K., et al. 2022. ‘Metaverse
beyond the hype: Multidisciplinary perspectives Garcia-Camargo, Isabella & Samantha
on emerging challenges, opportunities, Bradshaw. 2021. ‘Disinformation 2.0: Trends for
and agenda for research, practice and 2021 and beyond’. Hybrid CoE Working Paper
policy’. International Journal of Information 11. As of 20 December 2023:
Management 66 (October 2022):1-55. As of 20 https://www.hybridcoe.fi/wp-content/
December 2023: uploads/2021/07/20210716_Hybrid_CoE_
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ Working_Paper_11_Disinfo_2_0_WEB.pdf
article/pii/S0268401222000767
Giordani, Marco, Michele Polese, Marco
Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale De Lausanne, Mezzavilla, Sundeep Rangan & Michele Zorzi.
2020. ‘Smart textiles made possible by flexible 2020. ‘Toward 6G Networks: Use Cases
transmission lines’. Eurekalert, 1 June 2020. As and Technologies’. IEEE Communications
of 20 December 2023: Magazine, March 2020:55-61: As of 20
https://www.eurekalert.org/ December 2023:
news-releases/587311 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/
document/9040264
European Commission. 2016. Digital Futures:
Final Report – A Journey Into 2050 Visions and Gold, Jon & Keith Shaw. 2022. ‘What is
Policy Challenges. As of 20 December 2023: edge computing and why does it matter?’.
https://ec.europa.eu/futurium/en/content/ Networkworld.com, 1 June 2022.
digital-futures-final-report-journey-2050- https://www.networkworld.com/
visions-and-policy-challenges.html article/3224893/what-is-edge-computing-and-
how-it-s-changing-the-network.html
Floridi, Luciano. 2005. ‘Semantic conceptions
of information’. Stanford Encyclopedia of Goldstein, Josh A., Girish Sastry, Micah Musser,
Philosophy. Stanford.edu, 5 October 2005. As Renée DiResta, Matthew Gentzel & Katerina
of 20 December 2023: Sedova. ‘Generative Language Models and
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/ Automated Influence Operations: Emerging
information-semantic/ Threats and Potential Mitigations’. OpenAI.
com, January 2023. As of 20 December 2023:
https://cdn.openai.com/papers/forecasting-
misuse.pdf
83
Green, Nancy L. 2013. ‘Towards Automated Helmus, Todd C. 2022. Artificial Intelligence,
Analysis of Student Arguments’. International Deepfakes, and Disinformation: A Primer. Santa
Conference on Artificial Intelligence in Monica, Calif.:RAND Corporation. PE-A1043-1.
Education, 591-594. As of 20 December 2023: As of December 7, 2023:
https://link.springer.com/ https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/
chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-39112-5_66 PEA1043-1.html
GSMA. 2019. The State of Mobile Internet Hemsworth, Michael. 2020. ‘The ‘Shred Cube’
Connectivity 2019. GSM Association, 2019. As Permanently Deletes Files and Leaves No
of 20 December 2023: Trace’. TrendHunter, 6 March 2020. As of 20
https://www.gsma.com/mobilefordevelopment/ December 2023:
wp-content/uploads/2019/07/GSMA-State-of- https://www.trendhunter.com/trends/
Mobile-Internet-Connectivity-Report-2019.pdf shred-cube
Gu, Min, Xiangping Li & Yaoyu Cao. 2014. Hu, Krystal. 2023. ‘ChatGPT sets record for
‘Optical storage arrays: a perspective for future fastest-growing user base - analyst note’.
big data storage’. Light: Science & Applications Reuters, 2 February 2023. As of 20 December
3(2014):1-11. As of 20 December 2023: 2023:
https://www.nature.com/articles/lsa201458 https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-
sets-record-fastest-growing-user-base-analyst-
Hales, David & Rhett Gayle. 2013. ‘Agency in
note-2023-02-01/
complex information agents – Future research
directions’. Davidhales.name, 15 December Hudelson, Patricia M. 2004. ‘Culture and
2013. As of 20 December 2023: quality: an anthropological perspective’.
https://davidhales.name/msiis/2015/papers/ International Journal for Quality in Health Care
agency-ness-draft-v0.4.pdf 16 (5): 345–346. As of 20 December 2023:
https://doi.org/10.1093/intqhc/mzh076
Hamingson, Natalie. 2023. ‘Communication
Technology and Inclusion Will Shape the Future Ismail and Noh, 2013. ‘Augmented Reality
of Remote Work’. Business News Daily, 24 Theory and Applications’. CORE. As of 20
October 2023. As of 20 December 2023: December 2023:
https://www.businessnewsdaily.com/8156- https://www.researchgate.net/
future-of-remote-work.html profile/Mohd-Shahrizal-Sunar/
publication/280722116_Advances_in_
Heersmink, Richard. 2021. ‘Materialised
Computer_Graphics_and_Virtual_Environment_
Identities: Cultural Identity, Collective Memory,
Vol_2/links/55c2cd0c08aebc967defe5ba/
and Artifacts’. Review of Philosophy and
Advances-in-Computer-Graphics-and-Virtual-
Psychology, 12 July 2021. As of 20 December
Environment-Vol-2.pdf
2023:
https://philarchive.org/archive/HEEMIC-4 ITU & UNICEF. 2021. Connectivity in education:
Status and recent developments in nine non-
Helberger, Natali, Sarah Eskens, Max van
European Union countries. Geneva: ITU. As of
Drunen, Mariella Bastian & Judith Moeller.
20 December 2023:
2019. ‘Implications of AI-driven tools in the
https://www.unicef.org/eca/media/18241/
media for freedom of expression’. Institute
file/Connectivity%20in%20education:%20
for Information Law, March 2019. As of 20
Status%20and%20recent%20
December 2023:
developments%20in%20nine%20non-
https://rm.coe.int/
European%20Union%20countries.pdf
coe-ai-report-final/168094ce8f
ITU. 2021. Achieving universal and meaningful Jung, Timothy, Hyunae Lee, Namho Chung
digital connectivity: Setting a baseline and & Claudia tom Diek. 2018. ‘Cross-cultural
targets for 2030. Geneva: ITU. As of 20 differences in adopting mobile augmented
December 2023: reality at cultural heritage tourism sites’.
https://www.itu.int/itu-d/meetings/statistics/ International Journal of Contemporary
wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2022/04/ Hospitality Management,19 March 2018. As of
UniversalMeaningfulDigitalConnectivity 20 December 2023:
Targets2030_BackgroundPaper.pdf https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/
doi/10.1108/IJCHM-02-2017-0084/full/html
Jerome, Joseph & Jeremy Greenberg. 2021.
‘Augmented Reality + Virtual Reality: Privacy Kaspersky. 2020. The Future of Human
& Autonomy Considerations in Emerging, Augmentation 2020: Opportunity or Dangerous
Immersive Digital Worlds’. Future of Privacy Dream? Kapersky, As of 20 December 2023:
Forum, April 2021. As of 20 December 2023: https://media.kasperskydaily.com/wp-content/
https://fpf.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ uploads/sites/86/2020/09/17130024/
FPF-ARVR-Report-4.16.21-Digital.pdf Kaspersky-The-Future-of-Human-
Augmentation-Report.pdf
Johns Hopkins University & Imperial College
London. 2021. ‘Cognitive Biotechnology: Kavanagh, Jennifer & Michael D. Rich. 2018.
Opportunities and considerations for the NATO Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the
Alliance’. NATO Review, 26 February 2021. As of Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in
20 December 2023: American Public Life. Santa Monica, Calif.:
https://www.nato.int/docu/review/ RAND Corporation. RR-2314-RC. As of
articles/2021/02/26/cognitive-biotechnology- December 20, 2023:
opportunities-and-considerations-for-the-nato- https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/
alliance/index.html RR2314.html
Johnson, Dexter. 2020. ‘With 5G Rollout Kim, David and Michael Solomon. 2013.
Lagging, Research Looks Ahead to 6G’. IEEE Fundamentals of information systems security.
Spectrum, 29 July 2020. As of 20 December Burlington, Mass.: Jones and Barlett Learning.
2023:
Lee, Mary, Benjamin Boudreaux, Ritika
https://spectrum.ieee.org/with-5g-rollout-
Chaturvedi, Sasha Romanosky & Bryce
lagging-research-looks-ahead-to-6g
Downing. 2020. The Internet of Bodies:
Johnson, Jeannie L. & Marilyn J. Maines. Opportunities, Risks, and Governance. Santa
2018. ‘The Cultural Topography Analytic Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation. RR-3226-RC.
Framework’. In: Crossing Nuclear Thresholds: As of December 20, 2023:
Leveraging Sociocultural Insights into Nuclear https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/
Decisionmaking, edited by Jeannie L. Johnson, RR3226.html
Kerry M. Kartchner & Marilyn J. Maines.
Lezaun, Javier. 2017. ‘Actor-network theory’. In
Cham:Springer.
Social Theory Now, edited by Claudio Benzecry,
Monika Krause & Isaac Ariail Reed. Chicago:
The University of Chicago Press. As of 20
December 2023:
https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/
uuid:2b73676c-ef0f-4de7-a7fa-131ac74e10e2
85
Lightman, Hunter, Vineet Kosaraju, Yura Burda, Malmodin, Jens & Dag Lunden. 2018. ‘The
Harri Edwards, Bowen Baker, Teddy Lee, Jan Energy and Carbon Footprint of the Global ICT
Leike, John Schulman, Ilya Sutskever & Karl and E&M Sectors 2010–2015’. Sustainability
Cobbe. 2023. ‘Let’s Verify Step by Step’. Cornell 10(9):1-31. As of 20 December 2023:
University, 13 May 2023. As of 20 December https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/9/3027
2023: https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.20050
Maras, Marie-Helen & Alex Alexandrou. 2018.
Lohn, Andrew, Anna Knack, Ant Burke, Krystal ‘Determining authenticity of video evidence in
Jackson. 2023. ‘Autonomous Cyber Defence: the age of artificial intelligence and in the wake
A roadmap from labs to ops’. Centre for of Deepfake videos’. The International Journal
Emerging Technology and Security, June 2023. of Evidence & Proof 23(3): 255–262. As of 20
As of 20 December 2023: December 2023:
https://cetas.turing.ac.uk/sites/default/ https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/
files/2023-06/autonomous_cyber_defence_ full/10.1177/1365712718807226
final_report.pdf
Maras, Marie-Helen. 2015. ‘Internet of Things:
Loke, Gabriel, Tural Khudiyev, Brian Wang, security and privacy implications’. International
Stephanie Fu, Syamantak Payra, Yorai Shaoul, Data Privacy Law 5(2):99-104. As of 20
Johnny Fung, Ioannis Chatziveroglou, Pin-Wen December 2023:
Chou, Itamar Chinn, Wei Yan, Anna Gitelson- https://academic.oup.com/idpl/
Kahn, John Joannopoulos & Yoel Fink. 2021. article/5/2/99/645234
‘Digital electronics in fibres enable fabric-
Marler, Timothy, Zara Fatima Abdurahaman,
based machine-learning inference’. Nature
Benjamin Boudreaux & Timothy R. Gulden.
Communications 12(2021):1-9. As of 20
2023. The Metaverse and Homeland Security:
December 2023:
Opportunities and Risks of Persistent Virtual
https://www.nature.com/articles/
Environments. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND
s41467-021-23628-5
Corporation. PE-A2217-2. As of 7 December
Lu, Jane. 2022. ‘Metaverse platforms face 2023:
diversity, equity and inclusion challenges. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/
Here’s how to address them’. World Economic PEA2217-2.html
Forum, 14 June 2022. As of 20 December
Marr, Bernard. 2023a. ‘The Future of Generative
2023:
AI Beyond ChatGPT’. Forbes, 31 May 2023. As
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/06/
of 20 December 2023:
metaverse-platforms-face-diversity-equity-and-
https://www.forbes.com/sites/
inclusion-challenges-heres-how-to-address-
bernardmarr/2023/05/31/
them/
the-future-of-generative-ai-beyond-chatgpt/
Macquarie University. 2020. ‘Improved laser
__________. 2023b. The Future Internet: How
system will help large optical telescopes gather
the Metaverse, Web 3.0 and Blockchain will
more accurate data’. Phys.org, 3 April 2020. As
Transform Business and Society. Hoboken, N.J.:
Wiley.
https://phys.org/news/2020-04-laser-large-
optical-telescopes-accurate.html
Martinez-Plumed, Fernando, Emilia Gomez McLeana, Scott, Gemma J.M. Read, Jason
& Jose Hernandez-Orallo. 2021. ‘Futures Thompson, Chris Baberc, Neville A. Stanton,
of artificial intelligence through technology Paul M. Salmon. 2023. ‘The risks associated
readiness levels’. Telematics and Informatics with Artificial General Intelligence: A systematic
58 (May 2021):1-37. As of 20 December 2023: review’. Journal of Experimental & Theroetical
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ Artificial Intelligence 35(5):649–663. As of 20
article/pii/S0736585320301842 December 2023:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/
Martone, Robert. 2019. ‘Scientists Demonstrate
epdf/10.1080/0952813X.2021.1964003
Direct Brain-to-Brain Communication in
Humans’. Scientific American, 29 October Mekni, Mehdi & Andre Lemieux. 2014.
2019. As of 20 December 2023: ‘Augmented Reality: Applications, Challenges
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ and Future Trends’. Applied Computational
scientists-demonstrate-direct-brain-to-brain- Science. As of 20 December 2023:
communication-in-humans/ http://www.cs.ucf.edu/courses/cap6121/
spr2020/readings/Mekni2014.pdf
Matin, Mohammad. A. & M. Manjurul Islam.
2012. ‘Overview of Wireless Sensor Network’. Meta. 2023. What is the Metaverse? Meta.com.
InTech, 9 May 2012. As of 20 December 2023: As of 20 December 2023:
https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/38793 https://about.meta.com/uk/
what-is-the-metaverse/
Maxigas. 2017. ‘Hackers against technology:
Critique and recuperation in technological Metz, Alex. 2022. ‘6 exciting ways to use
cycles’. Social Studies of Science 47(6):841- ChatGPT – from coding to poetry’. TechRadar,
860. As of 20 December 2023: 29 December 2022. As of 20 December 2023:
https://doi.org/10.1177/0306312717736387 https://www.techradar.com/features/6-
exciting-ways-to-use-chatgpt-from-coding-to-
McKinsey & Company. 2022. ‘What is the
poetry
Metaverse?’ Mckinsey.com, 17 August 2022.
As of 20 December 2023: Miller Mark Roman, Hanseul Jun, Fernanda
https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/ Herrera, Jacob Yu Villa, Greg Welch & Jeremy
mckinsey-explainers/what-is-the-metaverse#/ N. Bailenson. 2019. ‘Social interaction in
augmented reality’. PloS one 14(5). As of 20
___________. 2022. McKinsey Technology Trends
December 2023:
Outlook 2022. McKinsey.com, August 2022. As
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31086381/
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/ Mircea, Cristina. 2021. ‘Weird Form of Silicon
business%20functions/mckinsey%20digital/ Could Be Used for Next-Gen Electronics and
our%20insights/the%20top%20trends%20in%20 Energy Devices’. Autoevolution, 7 June 2021.
tech%202022/mckinsey-tech-trends-outlook- As of 20 December 2023:
2022-full-report.pdf https://www.autoevolution.com/news/weird-
form-of-silicon-could-be-used-for-next-gen-
___________. 2023. ‘What is generative AI?’.
electronics-and-energy-devices-162722.html
McKinsey.com, 19 January 2023. As of 20
December 2023:
https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/
mckinsey-explainers/what-is-generative-ai
87
Moynihan, Harriet, Marjorie Buchser & Jon Ofcom. 2021.Technology Futures: Spotlight on
Wallace. 2022. ‘What is the Metaverse?’. the Technologies Shaping Communications for
Chatham House, 25 April 2022. As of 20 the Future. Ofcom, 14 January 2021. As of 20
December 2023: December 2023:
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/04/ https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/
what-metaverse pdf_file/0011/211115/report-emerging-
technologies.pdf
National Cyber Security Centre. 2021. Distributed
ledger technology: The nature and applications ______. 2023. Adults’ Media Use and Attitudes
of distributed ledger technology. Ncsc.gov.uk, 30 Report 2023. Ofcom, 29 March 2023. As of 20
April 2021. As of 20 December 2023: December 2023:
https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/whitepaper/ https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/
distributed-ledger-technology pdf_file/0028/255844/adults-media-use-and-
attitudes-report-2023.pdf
NATO Allied Command Transformation. 2023.
‘21st Century Information Environment Trends United Nations Human Rights Office of the
out to 2040: The Challenges and Opportunities High Commissioner (OHCHR). 2023. ‘It May
in the Integration of its Physical, Cognitive and be Time to Reinforce Universal Access to the
Virtual Dimensions’. OPEN Publications 8(1). As Internet as a Human Right, Not Just a Privilege,
of 20 December 2023: High Commissioner tells Human Rights
https://issuu.com/spp_plp/docs/21st_century_ Council’. Ohchr.org, 10 March 2023. As of 20
information_environment_trends_out_to December 2023:
https://www.ohchr.org/en/news/2023/03/
NATO Science and Technology Organization.
it-may-be-time-reinforce-universal-access-
2023. Science & Technology Trends 2023–
internet-human-right-not-just-privilege-high
2043: Across the Physical, Biological and
Informational Domains. Brussels: NATO Oulette, Jennifer. 2019. ‘Augmented
Science & Technology Organization. As of 20 reality changes how people interact and
December 2023: communicate, study finds’. Ars Technica, 29
https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/ May 2019. As of 20 December 2023:
assets/pdf/2023/3/pdf/stt23-vol1.pdf https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/05/
augmented-reality-changes-how-people-
Newman, Nic, Richard Fletcher, Antonis
interact-and-communicate-study-finds/
Kalogeropoulos & Rasmus Kleis Nielsen.
2019. Reuters Institute Digital News Report Pataranutaporn, Pat. 2020. ‘UN AI for Good
2019. Oxford: Reuters Institute for the Study of Talk : Wearable AI and the future of human
Journalism. As 20 December 2023: augmentation by Pat Pataranutaporn’. MIT
https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/ Media Lab, 13 November 2020. As of 20
default/files/2019-06/DNR_2019_FINAL_0.pdf December 2023:
https://www.media.mit.edu/events/
Newman, Nic, Richard Fletcher, Craig T.
un-ai-for-good-talk-by-pat-pataranutaporn/
Robertson, Kirsten Eddy & Rasmus Kleis
Nielsen. 2022. Reuters Institute Digital News Paturel, Amy. 2016. ‘“Smart” Prosthetics Treat
Report 2022. Oxford: Reuters Institute for the Neurological Conditions Like Never Before’.
Study of Journalism. As of 20 December 2023: USC Today, 10 March 2016. As of 20 December
https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/ 2023:
sites/default/files/2022-06/Digital_News- https://news.usc.edu/trojan-family/brain-trust/
Report_2022.pdf
Perkovic, Mirjana. 2022. ‘How Smart Wearables Princeton University CITP. 2019. ‘Implications
Are Shaping Our Future’. Forbes, 29 September of Quantum Computing for Encryption Policy’.
2022. As of 20 December 2023: Carnegie Endowment, 25 April 2019. As of 20
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ December 2023:
forbesbusinesscouncil/2022/09/29/ https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/04/25/
how-smart-wearables-are-shaping-our-future/ implications-of-quantum-computing-for-
encryption-policy-pub-78985
Pew Research Center. 2021. The Future of
Digital Spaces and Their Role in Democracy. Raisamo, Roope, Ismo Rakkolainen, Paivi
Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Centre. As of Majaranta, Katri Salminen, Jussi Rantala &
20 December 2023: Ahmed Faroow. 2019. ‘Human augmentation:
https://www.pewresearch.org/ Past, present and future’. International Journal
internet/2021/11/22/the-future-of-digital- of Human-Computer Studies 131 (November
spaces-and-their-role-in-democracy/ 2019):131-143. As of 20 December 2023:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/
__________. 2022a. Visions of the Internet in
article/pii/S1071581919300576#bib0103
2035. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Centre.
As of 20 December 2023: Rana, MD Shohel, Mohammad Nur Nobi,
https://www.pewresearch. Beddhu Murali & Andrew Sung. 2022.
org/internet/2022/02/07/ ‘Deepfake Detection: A Systematic Literature
visions-of-the-internet-in-2035/ Review’. IEEE Access 10 (2022):1-20. As of 20
December 2023:
__________. 2022b. ‘The Metaverse in 2040’.
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.
Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Centre. As of
jsp?arnumber=9721302
20 December 2023:
https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/ Retinraj, Paul Deepakraj. 2023. ‘Generative
wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2022/06/ AI: Recent Developments, Applications,
PI_2022.06.30_Metaverse-Predictions_FINAL.pdf Limitations, and Future Direction’. Medium, 12
March 2023. As of 20 December 2023:
__________. 2023. The Future of Human Agency.
https://pauldeepakraj-r.medium.com/
Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Centre. As of
generative-ai-recent-developments-
20 December 2023:
applications-limitations-and-future-direction-
https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/
423823c27c01
wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2023/02/
PI_2023.02.24_The-Future-of-Human-Agency_ Röttger, Paul & Balasz Vedres. 2020. The
FINAL.pdf Information Environment and its Effects on
Individuals and Groups: An Interdisciplinary
Pohang University of Science & Technology.
Literature Review. Oxford: University of Oxford.
2022. ‘All solid-state LiDAR sensor that sees
As of 20 December 2023:
360°’. ScienceDaily, 26 October 2022. As of 20
https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/
December 2023:
projects/online-information-environment/oie-
https://www.sciencedaily.com/
the-information-environment.PDF
releases/2022/10/221026103209.htm
Ruhr-University Bochum. 2020. ‘Recognizing fake
images using frequency analysis’. ScienceDaily,
16 July 2020. As of 20 December 2023:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/
releases/2020/07/200716101532.htm
89
Sample, Matthew, Dennis McFarland, Sebastian, Glorin. 2023. ‘Do ChatGPT and
Andreas Wolkenstein & Eric Racine. 2019. Other AI Chatbots Pose a Cybersecurity Risk?
‘Brain–computer interfaces and personhood: An Exploratory Study’. International Journal of
interdisciplinary deliberations on neural Security and Privacy in Pervasive Computing
technology’. J. Neural Eng. 16 (2019):1-7. As of 15(1):1-11. As of 20 December 2023:
20 December 2023: https://www.igi-global.com/viewtitle.
https://iopscience.iop.org/ aspx?titleid=320225
article/10.1088/1741-2552/ab39cd/meta
Serino, Maeve, Kyla Cordrey, Laura McLaughlin
Sankaran, Vishwam. 2023. ‘Hollywood AI & Ruth L. Milanaik. 2016. ‘Pokémon Go and
backlash: What striking writers and actors fear augmented virtual reality games: a cautionary
about tech replacing roles’. The Independent, commentary for parents and pediatricians’.
17 July 2023. As of 20 December 2023: Curr Opin Pediatr 28(5):673-7. As of 20
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts- December 2023:
entertainment/films/news/hollywood-ai-strike- https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27479151/
writers-actors-b2375141.html
Sienko, Kathleen, Rachael Seidler, Wendy
Savela, Nina, Atte Oksanen, Markus Carender, Adam Goodworth, Susan Whitney &
Kaakinen, Marius Noreikis & Yu Xiao. 2020. Robert Peterka. 2018. ‘Potential Mechanisms
‘Does Augmented Reality Affect Sociability, of Sensory Augmentation Systems on Human
Entertainment, and Learning? A Field Balance Control’. Front. Neurol 9 (2018). As of
Experiment’. App. Sci. As of 20 December 2023: 20 December 2023:
https://text2fa.ir/wp-content/uploads/Text2fa. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/
ir-Does-Augmented-Reality.pdf fneur.2018.00944/full
Sayes, Edwin. 2014. ‘Actor-Network Theory and Signe, Landry. 2023. ‘Fixing the Global Digital
methodology: Just what does it mean to say Divide and Digital Access Gap’. Brookings, 5
that nonhumans have agency?’ Social Studies July 2023. As of 20 December 2023:
of Science 44(1): 134–149. As of 20 December https://www.brookings.edu/articles/fixing-the-
2023: global-digital-divide-and-digital-access-gap/
https://doi.org/10.1177/0306312713511867
Silva, Rafael, Erica Principe Cruz, Daniela
Schuman, Catherine D., Shruti R. Kulkarni, K. Rosner, Dauton Kelly, Andres Monroy-
Maryam Parsa, J. Parker Mitchell, Prasanna Hernandez & Fanny Liu. 2022. ‘Understanding
Date & Bill Kay. ‘Opportunities for neuromorphic AR Activism: An Interview Study with Creators
computing algorithms and applications’. Nature of Augmented Reality Experiences for Social
Computational Science 2 (2022):10-19. As of Change’. CHI Conference on Human Factors in
20 December 2023: Computing Systems. As of 20 December 2023:
https://www.nature.com/articles/ https://dl.acm.org/doi/
s43588-021-00184-y fullHtml/10.1145/3491102.3517605
Science Direct, 2023. ‘Mesh Typology’.
Sciencedirect.com. As of 20 December 2023:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/
computer-science/mesh-topology
Sinha, Saurabh & Kaushik Sengupta. U.S. Army DEVCOM Army Research Laboratory
2023. ‘Examining the Impact of 6G Public Affairs. 2021. ‘Breakthrough Army
Telecommunications on Society What to technology is a game changer for deepfake
consider before the next generation of detection’. Army.mil, 29 April 2021. As of 20
connectivity’. IEEE Spectrum, 10 January 2023. December 2023:
As of 20 December 2023: https://www.army.mil/article/245728/
https://spectrum.ieee.org/examining-the- breakthrough_army_technology_is_a_game_
impact-of-6g-telecommunications-on-society changer_for_deepfake_detection
Sohail, Aamir. 2023. ‘Social Interaction in the UK Ministry of Defence. 2018. Global Strategic
Metaverse: What It Means for the Future of Trends: The Future Starts Today. Ministry of
Social Networking’. Medium, 26 April 2023. As Defence. As 20 December 2023:
of 20 December 2023: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/
https://medium.com/blockchain-smart- government/uploads/system/uploads/
solutions/social-interaction-in-the-metaverse- attachment_data/file/1075981/GST_the_
what-it-means-for-the-future-of-social- future_starts_today.pdf
networking-f678e3c1a777
United States Government Accountability
Sovacool, Benjamin K & David J Hess. 2017. Office (GAO). 2023. Contested Information
‘Ordering theories: Typologies and conceptual Environment: Actions Needed to Strengthen
frameworks for sociotechnical change’. Social Education and Training for DOD Leaders. GAO,
Studies of Science 47(5):703-750. As of 20 January 2023. As of 20 December 2023:
December 2023: https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-23-105608.
https://doi.org/10.1177/0306312717709363 pdf
Stokel-Walker, Chris. 2021. ‘‘5D’ storage could University of Cambridge. 2021a. ‘Ultra-high-
hold 10,000 times more data than a Blu-ray density hard drives made with graphene store
disc’. New Scientist, 28 October 2021. As of 20 ten times more data’. Cam.ac.uk, 4 June 2021.
December 2023: As of 20 December 2023:
https://www.newscientist.com/ https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/ultra-
article/2295134-5d-storage-could-hold-10000- high-density-hard-drives-made-with-graphene-
times-more-data-than-a-blu-ray-disc/ store-ten-times-more-data
Thomas, Rebecca, Kathryn E. Linder, Nick _________. 2021b. ‘3D holographic head-up
Harper, Warren Blyth & Victor Lee. 2019. display could improve road safety’. Phys.org, 26
‘Current and Future Uses of Augmented Reality April 2021. As of December 2023:
in Higher Education’. IDEA Paper #81, October https://phys.org/news/2021-04-3d-
2019. As of 20 December 2023: holographic-head-up-road-safety.html
https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED598952.pdf
Vanderburg, Willem H. 1985. ‘Technology,
Trafton, Anne. 2021. ‘Could all your digital society, and culture: A framework for
photos be stored as DNA?’ MIT News, 10 June understanding’. Technology in Society 7(4):411-
2021. As of 20 December 2023: 422. As of 20 December 2023:
https://news.mit.edu/2021/ https://www.sciencedirect.
dna-data-storage-0610 com/science/article/abs/
pii/0160791X85900089?via%3Dihub
91
Veloz, Julie. 2022. ‘Getting DEI Right In The White, Sarah P. 2018. ‘Information Warfare
Metaverse (And Why It Matters)’. Forbes, 15 in the Digital Age: A Study of #SyriaHoax’.
September 2022. As of 20 December 2023: Technology Science, 12 November 2018. As of
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ 20 December 2023:
forbesagencycouncil/2022/09/15/getting- https://techscience.org/a/2018111302/
dei-right-in-the-metaverse-and-why-it-
Woodley, Samuel. 2020. ‘We’re fighting fake
matters/?sh=38b24ec1303f
news AI bots by using more AI. That’s a
Vosoughi, Soroush, Deb Roy & Sinan Aral. mistake.’ MIT Technology Review, 8 January
2018. ‘The spread of true and false news 2020. As of 20 December 2023:
online’. Science 359(6380):1146-1151. As of 20 https://www.technologyreview.
December 2023: com/2020/01/08/130983/were-fighting-fake-
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science. news-ai-bots-by-using-more-ai-thats-a-mistake/
aap9559
World Economic Forum (WEF). 2022.
Waltzman, Rand. 2022. ‘Facebook Immersive Media Technologies: The
Misinformation Is Bad Enough. The Metaverse Acceleration of Augmented and Virtual Reality
Will Be Worse’. The RAND blog, 22 August in the Wake of COVID-19. World Economic
2022. As of 20 December 2023: Forum White Paper, February 2022. As of 20
https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/08/facebook- December 2023:
misinformation-is-bad-enough-the-metaverse. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_
html Immersive_Media_Technologies_2022.pdf

Rand Rra2662-1

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Rand Rra2662-1

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Cultural and technological

change in the future

For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA2662-1

About RAND Europe

Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif., and Cambridge, UK

Cover: Adobe Stock

Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights

Research context, objectives Key findings

Figure 0.1 A framework for understanding future technologies’ impact on culture

• Assessment of technology to interrogate its role as an actant in the future information

• Cultural topography as understanding the cultural landscape of the population of interest;

Source: Frazer Nash Consulting.

technologies, also provide opportunities for to engender sociocultural transformation (e.g.

the biological foundations of human To achieve this, UK Defence should build on

Table 1.1 Study research questions 2

Abbreviations & Definitions

1.1. Context technological advances will likely continue

4 UK Ministry of Defence (2018).

Table 1.1 Study research questions

Work package RQs

WP2 RQ3: How is culture shaped through the information environment?

Figure 1.1 Overview of the research approach

WP2 Culture and the information

Literature review Conceptual framework

Review of RAND's Horizon Scanning database

Short-list of technological systems Framework for technology assessment

WP3 Technology assessment and implications for Defence (RQ4-5)

Technology deep dives SME interviews Implications for Defence

Source: RAND Europe.

2. Horizon-scanning: We also reviewed 4. Advanced connectivity

10 See https://www.rand.org/randeurope/research/futures-and-foresight-studies.html (as of 6 March 2024)

with a future information environment, thus class-based experiences, through concepts

11 Lezaun (2017) and Sayes (2014).

and followed a semi-structured format based peer-reviewed studies and non-academic

• Chapter 3 presents findings relating to

Chapter 2. Technological change and the

12 Government Accountability Office (2023), OPEN Publications (2023).

Figure 2.1 Conceptual overview of the information environment

Virtual The information Human cognition and

Inter-personal and human-

Data and information

Source: RAND Europe literature analysis.

Table 2.1 Summary of current trends characterising the information environment

Dimension Key trends

Physical • Increased numbers of interconnected devices, driven by growing demand for

Dimension Key trends

Cognitive • Exacerbation of the cognitive biases shaping people’s interpretation of information,

2.1.1. Physical dimension phone, smartphones are also becoming the

13 Alavi et al. (2018), Chin et al. (2019).

21 Rottger & Vedres (2020).

highlighted how the changing commercial • Growing difficulties in identifying

29 Kavanagh & Rich (2018).

process information. Examples of motivated exacerbates the information environment’s

37 Rottger & Vedres (2020).

43 Rottger & Vedres (2020), OPEN Publications (2023), GAO (2023).

processing.59 There is also growing interest technological sophistication of satellite

59 See, for example, University of Cambridge (2021a), Mircea (2021).

increased numbers of and connectivity information environment’s future evolution

67 OPEN Publications (2023).

Table 2.2 Summary of the selected technological systems

Automated Automated information systems refer to the automation of information-related

Virtual A virtual metaverse comprises digital environments and applications that

Advanced Advanced connectivity encompasses developments facilitating the internet’s

Table 1.1 Study research questions 2