BQA1014 Quantitative Analysis Models for Business TRI 2 2022/2023

Tutorial 2: Basic Probability

1. An interview has been done among a group of students from Faculty of Business
and Law in Multimedia University Malacca. It is found that 10% have hot
breakfast, 20% have hot lunch and 25% have a hot breakfast or a hot lunch. Find
the probability that a student chosen at random from this group,
(i) has a hot breakfast and a hot lunch,
(ii) has a hot lunch, given that the student had a hot breakfast.

2. Six hundred accidents that occurred on a Saturday night were analyzed. Two
items noted were the number of vehicles involved and whether alcohol played a
role in the accident. The numbers are shown below:

Number of Vehicles Involved

Did alcohol play a role? 1 2 3 Totals
Yes 75 125 50 250
No 50 225 75 350
Totals 125 350 125 600

i) What proportion of accidents involved alcohol or a single vehicle?

ii) If multiple vehicles were involved, what proportion of accidents involved

alcohol?
3. A major electronics manufacturer has determined that when one of its televisions is
sold there is 0.08 chance that the set will need service before the warranty period
expires. It has also assessed a 0.05 chance that a DVD player will need service prior
to the expiration of the warranty.

(i) Suppose a customer purchases one of the company’s televisions and one
of the DVD players, what is the probability that at least one of the
products will require service prior to the warranty expiring?
(ii) Suppose a retailer sells four televisions on a particular day, what is the
probability that none of the four will need service prior to the warranty
expiring?

4. A seed packaging company purchases 30% of their vegetable seeds from supplier
KZ and 70% from supplier MP. The vegetable seeds from supplier KZ have an
85% germination rate and those from supplier MP have a 95% germination rate.

(i) Find the probability that a seed selected at random will germinate.
(ii) Given that the seed germinated, find the probability that the seed was
purchased from supplier KZ.
(iii) Are the supplier and the germination rate statistically independent?
Explain.

1
BQA1014 Quantitative Analysis Models for Business TRI 2 2022/2023

5. A distributor of Christmas tree lights has four suppliers from which she purchases
lights. This past season she purchased 40% of the lights from Franklin Lighting,
30% from Wilson & Sons, 20% from Evergreen Supply, and the rest from A.L.
Scott. In prior years, 3% of Franklin’s lights were defective, 6% of the Wilson’s
lights were defective, 2% of Evergreen’s were defective, and 8% of the Scott
lights were defective. When the lights arrive at the distributor, she puts them in
inventory without identifying the supplier. Suppose that a light string has been
pulled from inventory and found that it is defective; what is the probability that it
was supplied by Franklin Lighting?

6. ABC Construction Company is determining whether it should submit a bid for a

new shopping center. In the past, ABC's main competitor, XYZ Construction
Company, has submitted bids 70% of the time. If XYZ Construction Company
does not bid on a job, the probability that ABC Construction Company will get
the job is 0.50. If XYZ Construction Company does bid on a job, the probability
that ABC Construction Company will get the job is 0.25.

(a) If ABC Construction Company gets the job, what is the probability that
XYZ Construction Company did not bid?
(b) What is the probability that ABC Construction Company will get the job?