AR Jan-Feb 2024

VOL 51 / NO 1 / JANUARY-FEBRUARY 2024 PUBLISHED BY THE CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY
THE TECH IN
OUR CARS
2023 CAS
Annual
Meeting
Highlights
Inflation
and Loss
Reserves:
Analysis
Across the
Decades
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January-February 2024
on the cover
departments The Tech in Our Cars
VOL 51 / NO 1 / JANUARY-FEBRUARY 2024
THE TECH IN
PUBLISHED BY THE CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY
4 OUR CARS
EDITOR’S NOTE By ANNMARIE GEDDES BARIBEAU
● By Members and For Members
Technology makes
6 PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE
● A Glimpse at the Past, a Look Toward the Future cars safer and more
convenient to drive but 2023 CAS
Annual
7
Meeting
Highlights
READER RESPONSE
also introduces higher Inflation
and Loss
Reserves:
Analysis
8
Across the
repair costs and new

Decades
MEMBER NEWS
● Comings and Goings risks.
● Calendar of Events 28
● In Memoriam
● In Remembrance
● CE Requirements and Compliance 2023 CAS Annual Meeting 34
● CAS Staff Spotlight
● Employers Ramp Up Exam Support for Latin
Highlights
American Students
● CAS Hosts Second Annual China Summit AI, impacts of earthquakes, floods and wildfire,
● 2023 CAS Annual Meeting Photo Highlights and California’s unique risks and insurance market
● New FCAS and ACAS
dynamics were just some of the hot topics covered
34 PROFESSIONAL INSIGHT in Professional Insight.
● The AI Cheat Code: How ChatGPT (and AI Tools)
Will (and Won’t)
● Dream or Nightmare? California’s Earthquakes,
Floods and Wildfire Inflation and Loss Reserves: 42
● Professionalizing Artificial Intelligence: Lessons from Analysis Across the Decades
Actuarial Science
● Ethical Issues
By JIM LYNCH
42 ACTUARIAL EXPERTISE
● Inflation and Loss Reserves: When inflation hits, management wants to know:
Analysis Across the Decades How much inflation is baked into reserves; and
how much could future inflation cost us? Actuaries
46 VIEWPOINT
● Random Sampler — The Future of the CAS — A across the decades respond.
Confident Expectation of Success
● Random Sampler — To Thrive, Embrace Your
Strengths Actuarial Review (ISSN 10465081) is published bimonthly by the Casualty Actuarial Society, 4350 North Fairfax
● In My Opinion Drive, Suite 250, Arlington, VA 22203. Telephone: (703) 276-3100; Fax: (703) 276-3108; Email: ar@casact.
org. Presorted standard postage is paid in Lutherville, MD. Publications Mail Agreement No. 40035891. Return
52 SOLVE THIS FSC Undeliverable Canadian Addresses to PO Box 503, RPO West Beaver Creek, Richmond Hill, ON L4B 4R6.
● It’s a Puzzlement LOGO The amount of dues applied toward each subscription of Actuarial Review is $10. Subscriptions to nonmembers
are $50 per year. Postmaster: Send address changes to Actuarial Review, 4350 North Fairfax Drive, Suite 250,
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CASACT.ORG JANUARY-FEBRUARY 2024 ACTUARIAL REVIEW 3

editor’sNOTE By JIM WEISS, AR EDITOR IN CHIEF
The magazine of the
Casualty Actuarial Society
Editor in Chief
By Members and For Members
L
Jim Weiss
AR Managing Editor and

CAS Director of Publications
ast month I accepted the Actuarial most biting take.
Elizabeth A. Smith Review editor-in-chief baton from Our magazine is a way for us to get
CAS Editorial/Production Manager my predecessor, Grover Edie, after to know our 10,000 plus and growing
Sarah Sapp
many years of volunteering as a member base (See an upcoming article
CAS Managing Editor/Contributor copyeditor and occasional author. on Bob Conger) and our professional
Donna Royston
This transition motivated me to reflect a staff sidekicks (Ashley Givens in Staff
CAS Graphic Designer
Sonja Uyenco
bit on the story of our magazine. I refer Spotlight). It takes us to places in the ac-
to as “our magazine” because — with its tuarial world we may not see every day
Copy Editors
Colleen Arbogast Julie Lederer member newsletter origin and its evolu- (like CE audits or Latin American exam
Rebecca Armon David Levy tion into a respected trade publication sittings). It celebrates our successes (like
Daryl Atkinson Shamira Sharlyne Tan Liao
Karen Ayres Stuart Montgomery — AR is a powerful voice for CAS mem- awards for CAS research) and lays bare
Sean Bailey Erin Olson
bers to communicate with each other our challenges (see cover story, “The
Glenn Balling Shama S. Sabade
Robert Blanco Michael Schenk and the world beyond our profession. Tech in Our Cars”). It is a reflection on
Sara Chen Robert Share
Meng-Fang Chung Craig Sloss
In the age of a 24-hour news cycle, our past (features on inflation across
Todd Dashoff Rebecca Sze the recession of print media and the the decades), present (our volunteers’
Charles Grilliot Takunda Taimu
Stephanie Groharing James Weiss explosion of citizen journalism, AR has extensive coverage of the Annual Meet-
Julie Hagerstrand Radost Wenman been consistently ahead of its time. AR ing) and future (outgoing CAS President
Kenneth S. Hsu Ian Winograd
Fahim Hussain Nick Witras delivers a beautiful glossy magazine Roosevelt Mosley’s poignant reflections
Wesley Jenq Gerald Yeung (with specifically commissioned cover in Random Sampler about his confi-
Rob Kahn Xuan You
Rebecca Knackstedt Yuhan Zhao art) to members’ mailboxes and has dence in the actuaries of tomorrow).
Opinions Editor developed a snappy website. Produced When I was young, I would often
Richard B. Moncher by volunteer authors and editors in wait by the mailbox for the latest Sports
Explorations partnership with top-flight CAS staff, it Illustrated or Rolling Stone, or skulk
Glenn G. Meyers
James C. Guszcza
draws upon the most effective aspects around Borders paging through Time
Stephen Mildenhall of citizen and conventional journalism. and Popular Science. Our world looks
Puzzle Its bi-monthly news cycle allows time very different today, but I never lost that
Jon Evans
John P. Robertson
for our actuaries to dissect the complex excitement to get lost in a good maga-
issues of our industry and time — accen- zine. Our committed volunteer working
Advertising
Al Rickard, 703-402-9713 tuating magazines’ structural preference group, professional staff, and I will strive
arickard@assocvision.com (compared to more real-time media) for to deliver you that exhilaration one issue
having the decisive say over the first or at a time. ●
Actuarial Review welcomes story ideas from our readers. Please specify which
department you intend for your item: Member News, Solve This, Professional
Insight, Actuarial Expertise, etc.
The Casualty Actuarial Society is not
responsible for statements or opinions
expressed in the articles, discussions Send your comments and suggestions to:
or letters printed in Actuarial Review. Actuarial Review
For permission to reprint material from Actuarial Review, please write to Casualty Actuarial Society
the editor in chief. Letters to the editor can be sent to AR@casact.org
or the CAS Office. To opt out of the print subscription, send a request to 4350 North Fairfax Drive, Suite 250 Follow the CAS
AR@casact.org.
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© 2024 Casualty Actuarial Society. Or email us at AR@casact.org
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4 ACTUARIAL REVIEW JANUARY-FEBRUARY 2024 CASACT.ORG

Obtain Your Credentials in
Predictive Analytics and
Catastrophe Risk Management
From The CAS Institute
Certified Catastrophe Risk Certified

Management Professional (CCRMP) Specialist in
and Certified Specialist in Predictive Analytics
Catastrophe Risk (CSCR) (CSPA)
The International Society of Catastrophe Managers The CAS Institute’s Certified Specialist in Predictive
(ISCM) and The CAS Institute (iCAS) have joined Analytics (CSPA) credential offers analytics
together to offer two credentials in catastrophe professionals and their employers the opportunity
risk management. The Certified Catastrophe Risk to certify the analytics skills specifically as applied
Management Professional (CCRMP) credential is to property-casualty insurance. The program focuses
available to experienced practitioners in the field on insurance as well as technical knowledge and
through an Experienced Industry Professional (EIP) includes a hands-on modeling project that challenges
pathway. The Certified Specialist in Catastrophe Risk candidates to apply what they have learned
(CSCR) credential is available both through an EIP throughout their studies to address a real-world
pathway and an examination path. scenario.
Required assessments and courses for earning the Required assessments and courses for earning the
CSCR include: CSPA include:
Property Insurance Fundamentals Property-Casualty Insurance Fundamentals
Catastrophe Risk in the Insurance Industry Data Concepts and Visualization
Introduction to Catastrophe Modeling Predictive Modeling — Methods and Techniques
Methodologies
Case Study Project
The Cat Modeling Process
Online Course on Ethics and Professionalism
Online Course on Ethics and Professionalism
Some exam waivers are available for specific prior
Some exam waivers are available for specific prior courses and exams.
courses and exams.
For more information, For more information,
visit CatRiskCredentials.org. visit TheCASInstitute.org.
president’sMESSAGE By FRANK CHANG
A Glimpse at the Past, a Look Toward the Future
L
ast year, we accomplished a lot and The PCPA is a win, however, we In addition, we’ll be able to leverage
hit a lot of milestones. I’d like to have faced some challenges. We’ve member input from the Quinquennial
thank Roosevelt Mosley, Kathy An- seen efforts falter because input was Survey, as well as feedback that we’ve
tonello and Victor Carter-Bey for not broadly sought; those who were received during the years our Strategic
their leadership as well as the vol- involved collaborated but did not have Plan has been active.
unteers, staff and leaders who contribut- the benefit of critical feedback from im- Second, we need to ensure a
ed to these accomplishments. We ended portant and diverse stakeholders. But we smooth launch for the PCPA and begin
the year with a very memorable Annual learn from our past and carry on striving planning the next set of admissions and
Meeting in Los Angeles: celebrating to improve. educational initiatives. To help guide
milestones (#CAS10k), welcoming new Two of the key themes of the com- our planning, we’ll be undertaking an
Associates and Fellows, engaging future ing year for me are collaboration and Actuarial Professional Analysis (APA).
actuaries (#CASStudentCentral) and diversity. Both must be present for us to The APA seeks to describe our profession
gathering as friends and colleagues. continue to succeed. through essential standards and require-
Discussions at the Annual Meeting were
some of the most enriching, involved
Two of the key themes of the coming year for me are
and polite debates spanning differing
views, such as how consumers, regula- collaboration and diversity. Both must be present for us
tors or insurers viewed California risk or
to continue to succeed.
whether exams today are more difficult
than years past. The meeting ended with
a panel of California industry leaders The accomplishments in 2023 give ments for practice that can be translated
sharing very different perspectives — us great momentum to move closer to into a weighted set of content areas for
punctuated by hearty applause from the our envisioned future where “CAS mem- assessment and can incorporate skills
crowd. bers are sought after globally for their needed for future actuaries. This ambi-
Take the Property Casualty Predic- insights and ability to apply analytics to tious undertaking will be led by staff and
tive Analytics (PCPA) requirement, for solve insurance and risk management volunteer actuaries, including a panel of
example. For years, there was interest problems.” actuarial subject matter experts and will
in putting together a basic education Here are a few of my priorities as we incorporate feedback from a wide range
requirement that would address, in a move into 2024. of stakeholders, including candidates,
hands-on way, what modern actuaries First, we need to update the CAS practicing actuaries, employers (current
need to know. However, the number of Strategic Plan. The current plan consists and prospective) and regulators. This
diverse views on requirements mul- of three pillars: feedback will be useful, in particular, as
tiplied by the number of discussions • Pillar 1. Building Skills for the Fu- we think about training an actuary who
needed to move forward stymied any ture. is prepared for the future.
significant progress. It took conscious • Pillar 2: Diversifying the Pipeline. Third, we need to implement the
collaboration — including teamwork, • Pillar 3. Expanding Globally. recommendations made by our Gov-
trust and mutual respect — to get a These pillars helped guide the CAS ernance Task Force with input from a
working group to focus on the core prod- for the three years from 2021 through governance consultant. In addition to
uct and critical issues, like the candidate 2023, inspiring multi-year efforts like the advising on governance best practices,
experience and value to employers, and Admissions Transformation Plan. We’ve this task force has been hard at work
to enable the working group to move extended the Strategic Plan through researching current processes, policies
forward faster and announce the PCPA 2024, giving us time to thoughtfully and procedures, and identifying op-
requirement. update the plan for 2025 through 2027. portunities to improve, document and

readerRESPONSE
communicate them. Some best practice An Expanding Line of Business implies that the insurer could grow sub-
improvements are already in flight, and stantially (in fact, it would be infinitely
executing the task force recommenda-
tions will be a priority for the CAS Board, I
enjoyed Michael Walters In My Opinion
column on individual health insurance.
Succinct, with many interesting ideas!
scalable) without having to hire any
additional employees to service those
leadership and Executive Council. policies, buildings to host those addi-
Finally, there are three other tactical On his comment “individual health poli- tional employees, or having to spend any
areas that we need to work on in the cies will not have the catastrophe or tort advertising money to attract those new
coming year. First, we have to strengthen system problems that homeowners and policies in the first place. While there
sourcing actuarial students — our early auto insurers have,” there are innovative may be some rare and unique cases
pipeline. Second, we should continue treatments that are very expensive at where this assumption would hold, in
to focus on volunteer satisfaction and first; there are possible mass tort claims; most cases it would not be true, and this
member engagement. The culture and and there is innovative gene research would invalidate the examples provided
existence of the CAS relies on volun- that has the possibility to diagnose in the article.
teers, and our community is formed medical conditions before they occur. Josh Taub, FCAS
by engaged members — who else, for There is a cost of developing new treat- Director of CAS Exams
example, will ask hard questions at our ments, which may be vitally important Instructor for CAS Exams 5 & 8
Town Halls with CAS Leaders? Finally, but affect only a handful of people. I am
we need to connect with our members grateful he wrote this article, and I hope Author Rob Kahn, FCAS, responds:
working internationally as well as peer the CAS will take up the challenge of set-
actuarial organizations. There’s much ting up a task force! Thanks for the feedback! You are abso-
we can learn about actuaries abroad, Arthur Schwartz , FCAS lutely correct that an insurer cannot grow
including how our profession should infinitely without incurring additional
be involved in issues like climate and The Insurance New Business fixed expenses. However, an insurer could
banking. Paradox certainly grow modestly, and any ad-

ditional fixed expenses incurred would,
I
There’s plenty to do. However, we
recently reviewed the Back of the Enve- in most cases, not invalidate any of the
have great momentum and a group of
lope article (AR, November-December arguments. In the examples provided,
dedicated leaders, volunteers and staff.
2023), and much like the author's the new business was less than 10% of the
In addition, we are all teaming up for the
account of first hearing of this “new total book. Growing a book of business by
benefit of the CAS, our members and
business paradox,” I too found it to be ~10% will probably not necessitate addi-
our community. If any of the work above
“borderline outlandish.” However, I did tional headcount, but to your point — it
resonates with you, there are many ways
not come to the same conclusion as the might. As with anything, it will depend
to get involved. I’m optimistic that, in a
author upon reviewing the calculations on a myriad of factors. As you correctly
year, we’ll look back and once again be
provided in the article. In particular, point out, the very existence of addi-
proud of the milestones we’ve achieved.
the calculations assume that there are tional new business may increase fixed
Finally, I’m grateful for the opportu-
no additional fixed expenses associ- expenses. With that in mind, it would be
nity to serve as your president and look
ated with writing new business policies. more precise to state that: “New busi-
forward to our many accomplishments
Fixed expenses are typically associated ness adds value when the new business
together. Go CAS! ●
with things like employee salaries, office premium covers the cost of all loss and
buildings and maintenance on those expenses specifically attributable to the
E-Forum Volunteers Wanted buildings, technology costs, and some new business, so it can then pitch in and
Volunteers are needed as copy editors for
portion of policy acquisition costs like help shoulder the burden of the larger
upcoming CAS research call papers/essays and
independent and sponsored research. Please TV advertising. By allocating $0 fixed fixed expense pool.” (Or something to that
email esmith@casact.org to volunteer and to expenses to new business, the article effect.) Thanks for keeping me honest.
learn more.

memberNEWS
COMINGS AND GOINGS CALENDAR OF EVENTS
Phil Brodeur, FCAS, has been promoted Scott Jean, FCAS, president and
to vice president, risk services at RLI, CEO at EMC Insurance Cos. in Des March 17–20, 2024
assuming leadership and oversight for Moines, received the Distinguished Ratemaking, Product and
RLI’s pricing, reservations, risk manage- Alumni Award from Iowa State’s depart- Modeling Seminar and Workshops
ment, reinsurance and due diligence ment of mathematics during a ceremony New Orleans, Louisiana
functions. Brodeur joined RLI in 2007 earlier this month in Ames. The award
as an intern and last served as associate recognizes distinguished alumni and
May 5–8, 2024
vice president of risk services. friends from the department. Jean
Temar Richards, ACAS, has been began his career with EMC Insurance
CAS Spring Meeting
appointed vice president, actuary at as an intern in 1991 and joined full time Atlanta, Georgia
Bermudian-based Relm Insurance. after graduating college. He became
Richards will contribute to the execution president and CEO in March 2020. Jean June 3–4, 2024
of Relm's strategic vision as well as opti- serves as the chairman and CEO of EMC Seminar on Reinsurance
mizing the company's pricing, reserving, National Life, an EMC affiliate that offers Boston, Massachusetts
product development and risk manage- life insurance products.
ment strategies. He was previously lead Peter Ott, FCAS, MAAA; Monica
September 9–11, 2024
actuary at Nayms, the island-based Shokrai, FCAS, MAAA; and Samuel J.Y.
crypto native reinsurance marketplace. Tashima, FCAS,MAAA, were recently
Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar
Logan Jaklin, FCAS, has been recognized by the American Academy San Francisco, California
promoted to vice president–actuarial of Actuaries as part of the organization’s
services at SECURA Insurance. Jaklin Rising Actuary Awards. The awards November 3–6, 2024
joined SECURA in 2013 as an actuarial recognize young actuarial leaders — CAS Annual Meeting
analyst. He became the director of actu- Phoenix, Arizona
arial services in 2020. Comings and Goings, page 9
Visit casact.org for updates on meeting locations.
ACTUARIAL REVIEW LETTERS POLICY

Letters shall not contain personal attacks or statements directly or implicitly denigrating
the characters of individuals or particular groups; false or unsubstantiated claims; or po-
litical rhetoric. Letters should be no more than 250 words and must include the author’s
name and phone number or email address, so the editorial staff can confirm the author.
Anonymous letters will not be published. There shall be no recurrence of topics; issues
previously addressed will not be the subject of continued letters to the editor, unless new
and pertinent information is provided. No more than one letter from an individual can
IN MEMORIAM
appear in every other issue. Letters should address content covered in AR. Content regard-
ing the CAS Board of Directors or individual departmental policies should be directed
to the appropriate staff and volunteer groups (e.g., board, working groups, committees,
John K. Knapstein (ACAS 2007)
task forces or councils) instead of AR. No letter that attempts to use AR as a platform for 1969-2023
an ulterior purpose will be published. Letters are subject to space limitations and are not
guaranteed to be published. The AR editorial volunteer and staff team reserves the right
to edit any submitted letter so that it conforms to this policy. Decisions to publish letters
and make changes to submissions shall be made at the discretion of the AR Working
Group and CAS staff.
For more information on AR editorial policies, visit https://ar.casact.org/wp-content/
uploads/2023/06/AR_Statement_of_Purpose.pdf

Comings and Goings Lisa Slotznick, FCAS, began a one- nancial Reporting, and as vice chairper-
from page 8 year term as president of the American son of the Committee on Qualifications.
Academy of Actuaries in November She is currently retired with 43 years as a
35 years and younger or credentialed 2023. Slotznick has been a member practicing actuary. ●
10 years or less — who are making an of the CAS since 1987 and has served
impact in the actuarial profession. Ott on both the Syllabus and Examination EMAIL “COMINGS AND GOINGS”
ITEMS TO AR@CASACT.ORG.
is a senior pricing officer for property at Committee and the Financial Reporting
Swiss Re, Shokrai is the head of actuari- and Analysis Committee. Slotznick has
al, analytics and systems in business risk served in many volunteer roles at the See real-time news
and insurance at Google, and Tashima is Academy, including as vice president of on our social media
the director and actuary, head of cyber casualty, as chairperson of the Climate channels. Follow us on
risk consulting and analytics for Aon, Change Joint Committee and of the Facebook, Instagram
North America. Committee on Property and Liability Fi- and LinkedIn.
IN REMEMBRANCE
In Remembrance is an occasional column featuring short obituaries of CAS members who have recently passed away. These obitu-
aries and sometimes longer versions are posted on the CAS website; search for “Obituaries.”
Mentor and Musician with a Love Seminary in Mt. Calvary, Wisconsin, Insurance in Hartford, Connecticut, and
for Jokes where he entered the 7th grade to study for JC Penney Property and Casualty
Robert George Eyers (FCAS 1973) for priesthood. Despite not continuing Insurance in Westerville, Ohio, where he
1937-2022 to become a priest, he remained very also served as senior vice president. He
Robert George Eyers passed away in active in the Catholic Church all his life finished his actuarial career with KPMG
October 2022, in Venice, Florida. Born through music ministry, parish council, Peat Marwick and Rector & Assoc. Eyers
in Oshkosh, Wisconsin, to George and teaching, small church community, loved music and played the guitar, piano
Helen (Faust) Eyers, he was a man who Knights of Columbus and monetary and violin. Later in life, he composed his
loved God and put that love into action support. He was known for his sharp own songs, which he was able to record
every day. Eyers was deeply devoted to mind and warm folksy humor. He was in a studio. After moving to Florida,
his wife Barbara (Blodgett), with whom a trusted advisor to many. Eyers earned Eyers loved to go to the beach, play golf
he celebrated 59 years of marriage until a bachelor’s degree in mathematics at and observe the alligators and birds
her passing four years before Eyers. Wisconsin State College and a master’s living on the golf course right behind
Together they were a shining example of in business at The Ohio State University. his home. He always had a joke in hand
love and faith to their four children, 16 He started his career as a data analyst and could always find some way to bring
grandchildren and 10 great-grandchil- at Sentry Insurance in Stevens Point, light to any situation.●
dren. Eyers graduated from St. Lawrence Wisconsin, was an actuary for Aetna

memberNEWS
CE Requirements and Compliance: What You Need to Know
I
By MICHAEL SPEEDLING ON BEHALF OF THE PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION AND CE COMPLIANCE WORKING GROUPS
t is that time of year again. You just Who is eligible? Some actuaries are maintain anonymity.
attested that you are in compliance automatically chosen for review: 1) CAS 4. The reviewers will discuss with the
with the U.S. Qualification Standards Board members in their first term, and other CEC members any questions
(USQS) or some other standards on 2) any member reviewed the prior year or issues for which they request
the CAS website. It’s time to start ac- who was recommended for a follow- input. Reviewers will post ques-
cumulating Continuing Education (CE) up review. Every other CAS member is tions or issues to the reviewee
credits for the new year. But wait! You fair game, although members who sign through the software application
have heard that some CAS members had NAIC statements of actuarial opinion do in an attempt to resolve unclear or
their CE credits from last year reviewed have a greater chance of being selected incomplete documentation.
to ensure that they were in compliance for review. 5. After all reviews are complete,
with the USQS as they attested. What happens in the CE compli- the CEC finalizes their pass/fail
Let’s assume that you’ve already ance review process? recommendations. Any outstanding
met your Basic Education (the exam 1. Members selected for review (re- issues or concerns stemming from
process) and Experience requirements. viewees) are notified that they have the requests for additonal informa-
What do you need to know about CE? been selected for the review and tion are discussed in an attempt to
The USQS requires 30 total hours of are requested to provide supporting resolve, and anything that cannot
“relevant CE” per calendar year. At least documentation through a software be resolved by the committee is
three of these hours must be profession- application within four weeks of the sent to the Executive Committee
alism related, and at least six hours need notification date. Each reviewee is (EC) for their next meeting.
to be from organized activities. Also, one assigned a unique number and any 6. The EC Meeting Chair presents any
hour must be bias related, and no more identifying information is redacted records still in question to the EC
than three hours of CE can be related from the submitted documentation. for their input and response. The
to general business instruction, like 2. Reminders are sent to the member CEC then debriefs the results and
management training, communication two weeks prior to the documenta- feedback from the EC meeting and
or business writing sessions. What if you tion due date. Reviewees who do decides on the action to take.
are selected for review? not respond or fail to provide sup- 7. Once all additional documentation
What is the CE review process? porting documents are contacted has been submitted and accepted
Like most things, there is a beginning by CAS staff. If the reviewee still by the CEC, the CAS Volunteer &
and an end. The review process starts in fails to submit the required docu- Committee Coordinator contacts
February when all members of the CAS mentation, a registered letter shall the reviewees with their results and
who are subject to CE requirements are be sent indicating that the member thanks them for their cooperation
notified of the review process and are is not in complicance with the CE in the review. This ends the CE
informed that they may be selected for a requirements and their status on review process. Members who have
review of their CE activities. the CAS website will be changed to questions regarding the review pro-
Who is reviewed? The CAS picks a “Has not complied.” cess may contact the CAS Volunteer
semi-random sample of 1% of certifying 3. After all submitted documenta- & Working Group Coordinator or
members each year. tion is received and sanitized, the Chairperson of the CEC.
Who is exempt? Only credentialed members of the CE Compliance Reviewers note common problems,
actuaries who either did not certify at Working Group (CEC) (reviewers) good and bad examples of logs, etc., to
year-end or did not pay CAS dues (i.e., begin their review. Each reviewer provide feedback to the reviewees and to
nonmembers) are exempt. is assigned a unique number to add to the knowledge base of the CEC.

Here are some examples of common 5. Lack of information on how to of carryover CE units.
problems with submitted CE documen- determine if specific events should 8. Insufficient hours in one or more
tation. be considered relevant and/or “or- subcategories. This past year, there
1. Lack of adequate description of ganized.” Events like internal-meet- were a number of instances where
the CE. For example, an “internal ings, company-required training there was no CE specified as bias
actuarial meeting” does not provide could be either organized, partially training. When the reviewee was
sufficient information on what organized or not organized depend- asked if they had completed bias
topics were covered or the time ing on who is presenting or in training but not recorded it, some
devoted to a topic. Was the entire attendance. For example, the entry said they were unaware of the
meeting relevant CE? Was there “Training session by analytics de- requirement. It also helps reviewers
time devoted to nonrelevant topics partment on deploying non-linear if you show totals for each category
like upcoming rate plans that would modelling techniques into model and overall so they can quickly
be considered part of the job? validations” clearly defines CE determine if the submitted log is
2. Lack of documentation support- relevance but “Pricing presentation complete.
ing CE. Documentation should at on upcoming rate change” doesn’t The best way to keep adequate
a minimum include date of CE, distinguish a business meeting from documentation is to keep a log for each
who sponsored the CE (e.g., CAS, CE relevance. Also, some sessions calendar year, updating new CEs as you
Regional Affiliate), how many CE of an internal event may qualify as earn them. The USQS provides a sample
hours are credited (50 minutes = “organized” because they are both format in Appendix 5. (https://www.
1 CE hour), the subject of the CE relevant and include parties outside actuary.org/sites/default/files/2021-11/
(e.g., reserving with AI), and area of of your company. CAS webinars, for USQS_2021.pdf )
practice, if relevant (e.g., reserving, example, are an organized activity There is also an application called
pricing). The CE should also be if attended “live,” but they are not TRACE on the Academy’s website if you
associated with any category that an organized activity if you view the don’t want to build your own. (https://
applies: Specific Qualification Stan- recording. www.actuary.org/trace).
dard, Organized Activity, Profes- 6. Counting CAS Town Hall meetings, You can’t avoid having your CE
sionalism, Bias Topic and Business a company’s quarterly earnings reviewed for compliance if you are
Skills. call, or vaguely described CE (e.g., selected, but you can be adequately
3. Bulk coding of multi-session “I read the WSJ every day”) without prepared.
events. Going to the CAS An- describing how it is relevant and 1. Keep good documentation of CE
nual Meeting and booking 12 CE the CE time devoted to the relevant units you are claiming.
hours under that description is not topic(s). It is your responsibility to 2. Be prepared to show relevance of
acceptable. Each session within determine and justify how a ses- the CE units.
a meeting should be recorded sion is relevant to you. 3. Have adequate hours in all catego-
separately with all the pertinent 7. Relying on the prior year’s CE units ries.
information. to support this year's attestation 4. Exceed minimum requirements, if
4. Duplicate entries with the same but not documenting the calcula- possible, in case some of your CE is
description. For example, an inter- tion and which prior year’s units viewed as not qualifying.
nal pricing seminar listed for three are being carried forward. If prior 5. Refer to the USQS and USQS FAQs if
separate sessions does not indicate year’s units are being used, then you have questions.
if this was repeated in error or if a worksheet of the prior year’s CE As always, please feel free to send
there were three distinct sessions highlighting which excess credits any questions or comments to ar@
during the seminar that qualified are being used should also be pro- casact.org. ●
for CE. vided. The USQS allows for one year

memberNEWS
CAS STAFF SPOTLIGHT
Meet Ashley Givens, ACS Representative
W
elcome to the CAS Staff of our families and important life
Spotlight, a column featur- events. I look forward for this cul-
ing members of the CAS staff. ture to continue and cannot wait to
For this spotlight, we are see what the years bring.
proud to introduce you to • Describe your educational and
Ashley Givens. professional background. What do
• What do you do at the CAS? you bring to the organization?
Ashley Givens
I am one of the Administrative and I have been working since I was
Customer Support (ACS) represen- 14 years old, starting my first job
her name in gold as a memorial
tatives here at the CAS. I am most as a camp counselor. After high
to her at the National Harbor in
likely one of the first people that school, my career path led me to
the Oxon Hill/Fort Washington,
members and candidates will talk full-time positions at a law firm,
Maryland. This makes her the first
to when they contact us. First im- a travel agency and Maryland’s
and only African American to be
pressions are important, so I want Prince Georges County. Customer
honored at National Harbor. She
to make sure that people know they service was the first skill that I ever
came up with the idea for develop-
are in good hands and that the CAS learned, and I believe it is a very
ing the National Harbor and worked
has their best interests at heart. ACS important one. You learn to have
with Prince Georges County council
supports not only candidates and patience with others and empathize
members and the landowner, Milt
members — we support the entire with different situations whether
Peterson. National Harbor is home
staff with whatever they need. they be good or bad. I feel that I
to the MGM Hotel and Casino, the
• What inspires you in your job, and bring a kind of positivity to the CAS
Capital Wheel, Gaylord Resort and
what do you most love about it? that is unbiased and accepting. I’m
other fine establishments. I am
The people I work with — the CAS grateful that as a child, I was able to
proud to be a part of that legacy.
is the best work environment I meet and interact with people of all
Also, CAS Graphic Designer Sonja
have ever had. When I first started, different backgrounds and walks of
Uyenco and I graduated together
everyone on the team was super life. This taught me to accept people
from Oxon Hill High.
helpful and patient with me. There for who they are. I always want to
• How would your friends and fam-
are endless possibilities with the treat people how I would want to
ily describe you?
training offered that gives my posi- be treated. That is one of my life’s
They would describe me as a crazy
tion more depth and allows me to mottos.
ball of loving energy who is always
gain more skills in my position. You • What is your favorite hobby?
honest, takes her relationships very
should be fully comfortable in the I love to spend time with my friends
seriously and who absolutely loves
position you are in and the organi- and family. I also like to bake and
love! I want everyone to be happy
zation that you work for. I love that make resin art. It is therapy for me.
and know that they are important
our team gets together monthly for • What would your colleagues find
and they matter. My friends and
social events, giving us the opportu- surprising about you?
family know I will always have their
nity to catch up on what is going on I am proud to say that my grand-
backs and treat them with respect. ●
with each other and share stories mother, Nannie Mae Hawkins, has

Employers Ramp Up Exam Support for Latin American Students
W
By RAFAEL COSTA, FCAS, CHAIR OF THE LATIN AMERICA REGIONAL WORKING GROUP
e all know that taking and Latin America there was a program for
passing actuarial exams is reinsurance actuaries taking Society of
difficult, requiring im- Actuaries (SOA) exams. She identified
mense discipline and effort the gap and supported the expansion of
by candidates. In the U.S., the program to P&C actuaries interested
employers commonly provide valuable in taking CAS exams. Moreno saw an
support to their actuarial staff, includ- opportunity to enhance the skill set of
ing study hours, reimbursement of actuaries, to ensure that there is a strong
exam fees and materials, and financial talent pipeline that is prepared for future
rewards for achieving designations. leadership roles. Alejandra Zaparolli
Even with strong support and incen- With these programs being nascent
tives, going through all the exams is a in the region, I would have imagined
long and challenging process. that any support would be limited when
Now imagine going through the compared to what employers have been
exams without any support from your offering to actuarial candidates in the
employer. That was the reality through- U.S. for decades. However, I was pleas-
out Latin America — until recently when antly surprised when Zaparolli told me
some employers created CAS exam sup- that the program in Latin America mir-
port programs for their actuarial staff. I rors the benefits offered in other regions
interviewed two actuarial leaders who — including study hours and financial
Juan Moreno
championed the creation of programs in support for study material and exam
insurance carriers in Brazil and Colom- fees. Financial rewards upon attainment
Moreno said that his team recently de-
bia, to learn about their motivations and of Associate and Fellow designations are
veloped a risk transfer model for surety,
the early results of their initiatives. offered as well, varying by region.
where they had the opportunity to apply
Alejandra Zaparolli, ACAS, is vice Moreno added that he is also a propo-
concepts that they learned in initial ac-
president and senior pricing actuary at nent of strong mentorship to help stu-
tuarial exams. The model went through
Swiss Re Corporate Solutions. Zaparolli dents set clear goals with regular check-
a smooth approval with their regula-
is based in New York and leads a grow- ins to overcome difficulties together
tor. Zaparolli mentioned that the study
ing team of actuaries based in Brazil. — especially as Moreno is also currently
program has helped attract talent and
Juan Moreno is head of reserving at taking exams. That enables the team to
is also the key to developing actuarial
Seguros Confianza, which is majority- create mutual accountability and peer
leaders, which is beneficial not only to
owned by Swiss Re Corporate Solutions. support, both in terms of learning syl-
the Latin American region, but to their
Moreno is based in Bogotá, Colombia, labus material and in helping each other
global operations.
and leads a team of reserving actuaries. through the day-to-day responsibilities
Zaparolli’s and Moreno’s efforts
I was curious to understand what of their team.
are extremely valuable, as they helped
motivated Zaparolli and Moreno to Despite the expectation that these
remove major obstacles that students in
champion the creation of CAS exam investments in talent will come to
Latin America currently face when they
study programs within their organiza- fruition in the long-term, when candi-
consider pursuing their designations.
tions. Zaparolli mentioned that her dates achieve their CAS designations,
We look forward to welcoming their co-
employer already had study programs both Zaparolli and Moreno said that
workers in the region as CAS members
for actuaries in other regions, and in the benefits are already emerging.
soon! ●

memberNEWS
CAS Hosts Second Annual China Summit By SHARON BURNS
T
he Casualty Actuarial Society The Summit agenda featured a dy- that are to be implemented by January
(CAS) held a successful, day-long namic lineup of speakers that covered a 2026.
China Summit on November diverse range of topics, including the lat- The morning session commenced
17, 2023, in Beijing, China, with est trends in electric vehicle insurance, with welcome remarks and a message
virtual attendance also available. autonomous driving and its impact to from CAS President-Elect David Cum-
The summit addressed a wide range of P&C insurance, how P&C insurers are mings, who emphasized the growing
topics relevant to actuaries practicing coping with a government-sponsored importance of actuaries in an increas-
in China, attracting participants from health program, climate-related sce- ingly dynamic marketplace. The pro-
across the insurance industry in China narios and cyber insurance. The Summit gram included four hours of continuing
and abroad, including CAS members,
candidates, academics and other insur- This event, tailored for a Chinese audience and
ance professionals.
conducted primarily in Mandarin, marks the second time
This event, tailored for a Chinese
audience and conducted primarily in the CAS has hosted the China event.
Mandarin, marks the second time the
CAS has hosted the event. Despite being featured an IFRS 17 panel discussion education credits for CAS members.
at capacity for in-person attendees, the with partners from PwC, Deloitte, KPMG In addition to informative speakers,
summit drew a substantial virtual audi- and EY, who considered how to prepare the event also included a celebration of
ence. for the adoption of new accounting rules new members, recognizing the 10 new
Ran Guo, FCAS, China Country Manager for the CAS, speaks passionately to the group about the CAS's Envisioned Future.

Delvin Cai, FCAS (partner at PwC) and Bin Yuan, FCAS (chief actuary Kelly Peng, FCAS, a host of the Summit, checks in for the event.
at Yellow River Insurance) look over the names of all past FCAS and
ACAS designees from China.
Left to right, Delvin Cai, FCAS (PwC), Winnie Sun, Ph.D. (Deloitte), Jeff Yao, FIA (EY), and Holly Ou (FIAA) in a panel discussion on IFRS 17.
Moderator Ran Guo is at the podium on the right.
Associates and 13 new Fellows who country manager for the CAS. “The Zero Recordings of the China Summit
earned their CAS credentials in 2023. COVID Policy, quick rise of the electric sessions will be available in UCAS in
"The gross written premium of the vehicle on the road, extreme weather, January 2024. For any inquiries regard-
China Property and Casualty insurance as well as adaptation of IFRS 17, are all ing this event, please contact the CAS
market was CNY 1,487.6 billion ($209.1 new challenges faced by P&C insurers,” International staff. ●
billion) in 2022 and is expected to said Guo. “The CAS is excited to host
achieve a CAGR of more than 7% during our first-ever, in-person event to address Sharon Burns is an independent consul-
2021-2026,” said Ran Guo, FCAS, China some of these issues.” tant and writer living in Oakton, VA.

ANNUAL
MEETING
1
h e T o p
e y t o t
Jo u r n
2

5 6
8
1. CAS President Roosevelt Mosley bestows the presidential
medal upon incoming CAS President Frank Chang.
2. Outgoing CAS VP-International Kendra Felisky (left) accepts
a gift presented by CAS Chief Business Officer Joyce Warner
on behalf of the CAS International Council.
3. Attendees enjoy the welcome reception in L.A.
4. The Annual Meeting Exhibit Hall always draws a crowd.
5. New Associate Natalie Marie Jacobsen strikes a pose at the
CAS step and repeat.
6. President Mosley (right) Poses with new Fellow Simone
Renee Beauford-Walker and her children, from left to right,
Xander, Soleil and Xavier Walker.
7. From left to right, President Mosley, Dalesa Bady, President-
Elect Chang, Zoe Rico and CAS President-Elect Dave
Cummings make up the panel for the session “Town Hall
9 with CAS Leaders: The Actuary of the Future.”
8. A group of friends celebrate earning their designations. Left
to right are Ilya Silik, ACAS; Rebecca Tardif, FCAS; Justine
Cantin, ACAS; and Marie Vermette-Laforme.
9. Roosevelt Mosley stands with some of the recipients of the
2023 CAS Trust Scholarship. From left to right are Kevin
Konop (University of Wisconsin-Madison), Daniel Polites
(University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign), President
Mosley and Aimee Xu (UCLA).

memberNEWS
NEW FELLOWS ADMITTED OR RECOGNIZED IN NOVEMBER 2023
Row 1, left to right: Colin Closson, Patrick Desjardins, Erica Wong, Amanda M. Wolfgang, CAS President Roosevelt Mosley, Lily Faye Cook,
Kate Richards, Madison Bemis, Joshua B. Young.
Row 2, left to right: Rohan Ajay Bhale, Erik Millstine, Jie Xiao You, Stephanie Xi, Jacob Burns, Amanda Gao, Ningyuan Xu, Unidentified Fellow,
Stephen Kane.
Row 3, left to right: Michael Olczyk, Rabi Ibrahim, Puneet Varier, Carter Burns, Jessica Hendricks, Daniel Muckenhirn, Mark C. Woods, Vincent
Edward Anderson, Ryne Logan Dolney.
Row 1, left to right: Hannah Kramlik, Courtney Brooke Cote, Courtney Ward, Matthew James Imoehl, CAS President Roosevelt Mosley, Zachary
Kevin Poole, Brian Patrick O’Connor, Molly Rachel Rozran, Kayleigh Donnelly.
Row 2, left to right: Mitchell Jeffrey Seeman, Jack Pipa, Ziwei Jiang, Xiaowen Feng, Puxuan Wang, Kevin Jacob Perlitsh, Rebecca Tardif, Jiande Li,
Yeshaya Rosner.
Row 3, left to right: Sean Michael Murray, Alessandro Markovic, Robert Ryan Riesenberg, Joshua Meyers, Emmanuel Davis, Justin Kwok, Marie-
Christine Beliveau, James Martin Ang Uy, Benjamin Paul Bradley.

Row 1, left to right: Jean-Philippe Bergeron, Jennifer Jung, Meredyth Gwynn Hurlbert, Rachel Mallory Merrill, CAS President Roosevelt Mosley,
Shira E. Stolarsky, Lei Huang, Veronica Chan, Clara Yam.
Row 2, left to right: Matthew Mark Moser, Daniela Paykin, Danielle Nantais, Joel Christopher Moseman, Erik Douglas Carlson, Kevin Boren Zhu,
Jonathan Lim, Ke Zhang, Andrew Sena.
Row 3, left to right: Bradley Charles Koenen, Alvin Liu, Nicholas Edward Graves, Rhys P. Leonard, Sampson Lanier Eason, Daniel Gong, Xu
(Howard) Han, Dalton Cowan, Bradley Hazelwood.
Row 1, left to right: Kelsey McGowan, Celeste Helene Bremen, Juhyun Shin, Brittany LaRocque, CAS President Roosevelt Mosley, Julia Caitlin
Stella, Joseph Eichorn, Alexandra Walker, Jennifer Lynn Shah.
Row 2, left to right: Ernest Lin, Nitai Jagdip Patel, Jessica Rebischke, Erin M. Sharkey, Karla L. Jeggle, Tova Baharlias, Ildiko Ban, Laura Ann
Saucier.
Row 3, left to right: Fan Feng, Nicholas E. Vogl, Kenneth G. Smart, Grant Armstrong, Jeffrey Reed, Ronald Wai-Hin Tsang, Arnav Vashishth,
Andrew Michael Lear, Jeffrey Spahl.

memberNEWS
NEW FELLOWS ADMITTED OR RECOGNIZED IN NOVEMBER 2023
Row 1, left to right: Nicholas Andrew Anderson, Jiajing (Jean) Ni, Joyce Wang, Vaishnavi Chandhiramouli, CAS President Roosevelt Mosley,
Viviane Huynh, Xuan Chen, Catherine Chen, Matthew Arthur Garfield.
Row 2, left to right: Ryne Yamada, Taylor Williams Marrs, Thomas Michael Duncan, Megan Lynn Brown, Salvatore John Neglia, Otto Sung, Ying
He, Kasey Ka-Chuen Ng.
Row 3, left to right: Erik Brandon Yost, Russell James Harmening, Simone Renee Beauford-Walker, Nicole Diana Harrington, David Allen Savoia,
Luke Dale Merchant, Chingun Ganbold.
Row 1, left to right: Katherine Ann Curran, Lauren Caputo, Jennifert Nettnay, Olivia Anne Raymond, CAS President Roosevelt Mosley, Julia
Giefer, Yiqun Liu, Weisi Si, Amber Munderville.
Row 2, left to right: Philip Warner, Arena Glenn Govier, Alison Wilkman, Jimmy Yu, Hsuan Wei Chang, Etienne-Olivier Dubord, Neli Tomova,
Shuang Zhao, Frederick Andrew Bucher.
Row 3, left to right: Anthony Dery, Seth Shively, Sungwon Yeo, Francis Proulx, Matthew Kulczak, Colin N. Finch, Benjamin Carani.

Row 1, left to right: Cameron Zaisser Salter, Bryanna Seefeldt, Chun Wai Tsang, Roberto J. Perez, CAS President Roosevelt Mosley, Sarah L.
Burns, Brittney Sheldon, Kaitlyn Cantrell, Catharine Grace Wadkins.
Row 2, left to right: Bruno M. Blanchette, Michael D. Brahm, Erik Allen Hostetter, Brent Anthony Hanson, Matthew D. Miles, Taylor Quinn
Mitchell, Jessica N. Dumont.
Row 3, left to right: Saul Reuben Warhaft, Seong Won Jang, Andrew Justus, Patrick Alan Underhill, Frank George Desmond, Braeden Hamm,
Kyle Casalla, Skylar Nicol.
Row 1, left to right: Lyndon Paul Wong, Allan Ouyang, Tianqi Yu, Joseph Anthony Sveda, CAS President Roosevelt Mosley, Joseph Drennan,
Tommy Maltais-Lemelin, Elizabeth Mary Johnson, Zhuoxi Li, Catherine Budish.
Row 2, left to right: David Hu, Timothy Cheng, Chaofan Xu, James Matthew Carraher, Spencer D. Adams, Kristen Flens, Chipo Runesu, Lisa
McSharry Lueling, Shayla Marie Carey, Raleigh Rebecca Miller.
Row 3, left to right: Joseph Tyler Krug, Jordan Ronald Paszek, Matthew Shockley, Paul Richard Davis, Kevin Morrison, Eric Brian Zange,
Zachary Paul Westermeyer, Timothy David Benham, Nicholas Iwan, Rocco Joseph Bavuso.
New Fellows not shown: Nicholas Araujo, Talal I. Arimah, John Thomas Baier, Gregory Joseph Breda, James Vincent Chun-yen Chan, Wei Chen,
Sen Vun Chin, Desmond Chong, Christian Costa, Onesime David Deha, Matthew Eliseo, Zhe Han, Andrew Hancock, Si Yuan He, James A. Henry,
Jun Hu, Gen Bi Jin, Huiying Kang, John J. Klodnicki, Man Ho Lai, Jennifer Bishoff Leach, Dong Gil Lee, G. Ping Lee, Jake Ruben Levinson, Chen
Li, Jianhua Liang, Lester Jongha Lim, Yun Ling, Dongdong Liu, Xiaoxia Liu, Ronni Luftig, Jing Jing Ma, Eric Matych, Cole William Meixner, Esti
Hauptfleisch Melville, WIlliam George Melville, Nigel L. Millick, Varun Mulavineth, Jovana Thy Nguyen, Andrew R. Orlando, Robert Anthony
Patronaggio, Vijay T. Persaud, Christopher A. Petty, Justine Power, Kethan Reddy, Quinn Bradley Saner, Megan Schlosser, Yanjun Shen, John
Michael Soltys, Wei Sun, Khai Swen Tan, Wee Yen Kevin Tan, Shu Lei Tenh, Heather Renee Thompson, Erich Tjiawi, David I. Towne, Julie Tse,
Jianqi Wang, Victor Wen Qi Wang, Mitchell Owen Wiemer, Qi Wu, Yue Xi, Weilan Xue, Mingyu Yang, Xiaoxi Yang, Jikai Yao, Man Fun Daniel
Yeung, Woosuk Yoo, Fengzhu Zhang.

memberNEWS
NEW ASSOCIATES ADMITTED OR RECOGNIZED IN NOVEMBER 2023
Row 1, left to right: Molly M. Ruhlman, Melanie McFaul, Jeremy Hirsch, John Ethan Galebach, CAS President Roosevelt Mosley, Melissa
Epstein, Leah D’Astolfo, Lisa Marie Cannizzaro, Julie Cornett.
Row 2, left to right: Kord Campbell, Kwang Woo Kim, Tanner Downs, Joseph Burke, Justin R. Wood, Jean-Philippe Bergeron, Austin Bettle,
Joshua Allen, Mallory Beard.
Row 3, left to right: Joshua Harrington, Brett Russell Howe, Daniel Burgess, Matthew Anderson, Jacob Alexander Arndt, Timothy Doyle,
Benjamin T. Fisher, Isabel Block, Mason LaRock.
Row 1, left to right: Rohan Ajay Bhale, Evelyn Monica Leonardi, Michelle Lau, Yokey Zhiying Li, CAS President Roosevelt Mosley, Vincent Mark
Yavorek, Briana Lynn Reed, Lauren Frick, Jeremy McGroder.
Row 2, left to right: Kashif Khalid, Tyler Mosher, Jeremie Lafortune, James Zixin Weng, Katrina Tanasovich Sonka, Weitao You, Sonil Gurbaksh
Tappia, Danielle E. H. Dust, Keshav Pawan Mittoo.
Row 3, left to right: Montgomery Stenroos, Michael Schwab, Vincent Romero, Matthew A. McKenney, Keren Chheang, Vinson Chen, Mitchell
Wasowski, John (Jack) Schmidt, Pujan Shah.

Row 1, left to right: Jeffrey Tam, Steven Willke, Bradley Arthur Waller, Megan Towne, CAS President Roosevelt Mosley, Esther Huah Wang,
Juliette Isabelle Fraser, Alexander Peterson, Natalie Marie Jacobsen.
Row 2, left to right: Joshua Birck, Bradley Kent Wolfenbarger, Rebecca Roberts, Lei Guo, Gregory Aaron Dreyfus, Thomas Spankroy, Joseph Robert
Michels, Alyssa Grove, Kathryn O’Connell.
Row 3, left to right: Matthew Beine, Ryan Todd Meade, Jaewoo Kim, Mark Ariel Karmiy, Roman Bryan Miller, Derek Howard Bock, Eric John Lee,
Mark J. Larson, Paul Winslow Henning.
Row 1, left to right: Lawrence Toh, Adam Brudowski, Samya Rkieh, Ru Wang, CAS President Roosevelt Mosley, Esther Law, Di Wu, Andrew
Kegel, Manushi Dhiren Patadia.
Row 2, left to right: Anthony Mele, Anna M. Schmidt, Jonathan Chen, William Paul-Bryant Harvey, Riley Jones, Tamara Beecroft, Charles
Robinson, Tyler Jenkins, Daniel Joel Bloom.
Row 3, left to right: Keenan Allen, Douglas Hung, Daniel Knight, Atharv Ranjit Gupte, Benjamin Phelon, Ziqing Zhang, Jacob James Prasch,
Chad Hoke, Grant Randall Steffen, Kevin Hoang Nguyen.

memberNEWS
Row 1, left to right: Xiaoli Wang, Abby Marsh, Jessie Huang, Carolyn Amber Schwartz, CAS President Roosevelt Mosley, Nathaniel Luke, Nick
Inkrais Witras, Huilin Chen, Harry II Suk Hong.
Row 2, left to right: Jeremy Thomas Gensel, Maazuddin Ahmed, Raza Pervaiz, Katherine (Katie) O'Donnell, Honglin Li, Gina Ferolito, Qianqian
Wang, Nechama Florans, Jamila Jones.
Row 3, left to right: Dylan Robert Blake, Jesse Marass, Andrew Craig, Lexi Rosengrant, Daniel Polhamus, Justin Young, Ryan Lebens, Lukas
Button, Saleh Cheema.
Row 1, left to right: Sarah Saulcy, Rismika Malhotra-Dhir, Erin Williams, Sharon Eileen Repine Sakorafos, CAS President Roosevelt Mosley,
Paige Bailey, Yifan Zhang, Christina L. Cuff, Emily Kyler.
Row 2, left to right: Justin Choi, Christine Hovermale, Frankie Tang Logan, James Kroll, Alex DiVerde, Preston Kavanagh, Andrew Hayes, Joseph
David Van Engen.
Row 3, left to right: Austin Souza, Jonathan Harwood, Brent Garrett Weaver, Terrance Timothy Chang, Justine Cantin, Ilya Silik, Tyler Eugene
Ruger, Kaelan M. McPeek, Samuel Jules.

Row 1, left to right: Miaoqi Liu, Jing Shi, Amanda Ruth Bruder, Julie Araniyasundaran, CAS President Roosevelt Mosley, Thuy Nguyen,
Shuangjia You, Munhee Kim, Humberto Viana.
Row 2, left to right: Thomas Lavoie, Camille Simard, Alexander Gia An Phung, Taylor Deacon, Cheng-Yen Lu, Dara Lakin, Justin DeLuzio,
Francis Richard Baccare, Anhtuan Tran, Julia Kosta.
Row 3, left to right: Jacob Shea, Luke Robert Musgrave, Navin Haresh Vigneswaren, Nathaniel Leo DeRousse, Deng Pan, Calloway Henry
Skwerski, Jose Joaquin Camara, Jianzhen Jenny Wang, Lauren Morell.
Row 1, left to right: Mital Sivananthan, Enyan Joann Yu, Nan Wang, Xiang Li, CAS President Roosevelt Mosley, Ruolin Cai, Jenna Shea, Norah
Diane Bacho, Zuqin Chen.
Row 2, left to right: Arpita Shah, Elizabeth Greco, Chloe Cheung, Hailey Young, Maria Tsyrkin, Diego Alejandro Rodriguez, Cullen Zimmer, Eli
Aberbach.
Row 3, left to right: Andrew Han, Mark Khaimov, Simon Geist, Jack Richards, Nathan Engelhardt, Brandon Florizone, Nils Drew Mollenkamp,
Paul Song.

memberNEWS
Left to right: Joshua Anderson, Ellie Nicole Greiber, Emilie Anderson,

CAS President Roosevelt Mosley, Suya Wu, Jacopo Marchesan, Nadeem Shivsi.
Left to right: Alan Joseph Tatro, Eva Shinikova, Benjamin Lawyer,

CAS President Roosevelt Mosley, Evan Dean Resuali, Morgan Twardowski Frisch.

Left to right: Valeriya Konovalov, CAS President Roosevelt Mosley, Sabrina Chalab, Yun Ya Xiao.
New Associates not shown: Robert E. Allen, Meenu Arora, Joycelyn Aryeetey, Ahmed Bin Asad, Jan Milan Bakaj, Eric Joseph Bayer, Kwabena
Boateng, Zachary Boaz, Tim Bonner, Nan Bottolfsen, Nicholas Bragman, Naomi Brehm, Cullen Joseph Brownson, Xu Chen, Nigel Cheung,
William Conover, Le Deng, Samantha DeQuarto, Meiting Du, John Filippini, Jason Friedlaender, Kyle Genteman, Yong Sen Goh, Kongpot
Hannirunkoor, Angelina Marguerite Harm, Steven Heinichen, Harrison Hott, Mengxuan Hou, Junfei Hu, Yinran Huang, Muhammad Humza,
Daniel Michael Imperato, Ayesha Khan, Dung Nguyen Hanh Kieu, Brandon Kleinmann, Eric Larson, Thien Quang Le, Daniel Lee, Geyijie Li,
Patrick J. Linn, Binjie Liu, Hon Ho Liu, Pak Ho Alex Lun, Thomas Lorenzo Lydston, Jenna Markovic, Katie Elizabeth Mason, Jarrod Mikolajczyk,
Robert Daniel Moser, Andrew Muelleman, Martin Munoz, Evelyn Vanessa Mutagaywa, Sier R. Nie, Shannon Osterfeld, Chirag Patel, Neel Patel,
Lanlan Peng, Yik Shen Pui, John W. Richards, Gavin Roswarski, Shariq Sadiq, Adiel Sanchez, Myung Won Seo, Zachary Shapiro, Alexander
Shepard, Tristan Shute, Zhangzhida Song, Wee Yen Kevin Tan, Emma Taylor, Ashley Lauren Thompson, Jason Wang, Kan Wang, Chaunse Athaus
Willis, Po-Hung Wu, Soo Gin Yap, Hayeon Park Young, Lingxiang Yuan, Li Zhang, Chunhua Zhi, Misbah Zuberi.

THE TECH IN
OUR CARS
By ANNMARIE GEDDES BARIBEAU

Technology makes cars safer and more convenient to drive but also
introduces higher repair costs and new risks.
O
h, the promise of technology! Car solve for future claims cost drivers.”
enthusiasts and consumers alike ap- This article is part two of a two-part series examining the
preciate technology's shiny attributes. conditions impacting the personal auto insurance industry.
Whether offering better safety, conve- The first article explored how the line moved from healthy to
unprofitable (AR November/December 2023). Here, Actuarial
nience or just plain fun, car technology
Review takes a deeper dive into the potential impact of auto-
can also introduce unintended conse-
mobile technology along with insurance affordability.
quences, tipping the risk equation for better or worse.
For years, auto manufacturers have continually tran-
Repair ramifications
sitioned cars from mechanical machines to computers on
Experts agree that car repair expenses are significantly pres-
wheels. The smarter the vehicles, the more expensive they can
suring losses. Car repair costs rose by more than 5% from
be to fix.
calendar year 2019 to 2020, escalating to double digits during
Auto repair costs were already climbing before the CO-
2021 and 2022, according to CCC Intelligence Solutions (CCC).
VID-19 pandemic. Early in the pandemic, the lockdowns sig-
There is also a glimmer of relief. Although the average
nificantly reduced frequency, but claim severity escalated for
cost of repairing a car during the first half of 2023 is the highest
many reasons (AR November/December 2023). As Americans
ever at about $4,400, the rate of change from 2022 to the first
log more miles on the roads, claims frequency will likely climb,
half of 2023 declined by 4.8%. (See Figure 1.)
and along with continuing high severity costs, will pressure
However, the contributors to higher repair costs, espe-
losses.
cially for technology, are expected to pressure premiums,
Such developments are not promising when the personal
experts agree. “Greater vehicle complexity plays a significant
auto line’s direct incurred loss ratio continues to climb. For
factor in the rising cost of repairs,” said Kyle Krumlauf, direc-
2022 and 2023, the dominant trend indicator of industry losses
tor of industry analytics at CCC. “The average vehicle today
was in the 1970s, according to A.M. Best. Double-digit rate
is equipped with 1,400 semiconductors and dozens, if not
increases have helped tame the combined ratio. Still, more
hundreds, of sensors and cameras,” he explained. Costs are
consumers are reducing coverage or dropping it altogether,
also associated with the level of sophistication of parts, such as
increasing the population of underinsured and uninsured
headlamps, and the integration of ADAS technologies.
motorists.
Generally, cars with the most tech — whether they oper-
While addressing this currently unpredictable line,
ate with internal combustion engines (ICE), electric motors
actuaries must also look ahead as technology moves forward
(EVs) or have many advanced driver assistance systems
faster than ever. “We know tech has been improving, but we do
(ADAS) features — tend to be luxury models that are more
not know where and how it is going to change,” said Jonathan
expensive to repair, said Xiaohui Lu, vice president of global
Charak, vice president and emerging solutions director of
business development for LexisNexis Risk Solutions.
sustainability underwriting at Zurich North America.
The next 10 years will be like no other in auto insurance
ADAS to the rescue?
history, Martin Ellingsworth, president of Salt Creek Analyt-
According to studies by the Insurance Institute on Highway
ics, predicted. “New vehicles are more expensive and have
Safety (IIHS), ADAS parts that the organization calls “collision
materials and technologies that will require additional people,
avoidance technologies” can significantly reduce accidents
processes and technology to service, maintain and repair.
and claims.
That will keep the pressure higher on the insurance markets to
Despite promising results, there is not enough ADAS

on the road to significantly reduce The quest for auto is contributing to different results than
accidents, said Matt Moore, senior what was promised about 10 years ago.
vice president at Highway Loss Data autonomy is contributing Back then, public policymakers and
Institute (HLDI), IIHS’s sister organiza- the general public were often told that
tion. “The Advanced Driver Assistance to different results than 90% to 93% of accidents were due to hu-
Systems currently deployed in the fleet, man error and that automated vehicles
what was promised about
while shown to reduce insurance losses, would reduce auto accidents. (AR
are not enough to compensate for the 10 years ago. Driverless Utopia, May/June 2018) The
factors putting upward pressure on Casualty Actuaries Society’s autono-
claim frequency when looking at all crashes (and) claims,” he mous vehicle task force refuted aspects of the claim in 2014.
added. Depending on the ADAS, it will take nearly a decade to Some cars feature automated ADAS, which the Society of
a generation before the safety systems reach 95% of registered Automotive Engineers categorizes as Level 2 for vehicles that
vehicles in the United States, according to HLDI research. can simultaneously control steering, acceleration and decel-
While recognizing the value of ADAS for reducing ac- eration. Adaptive cruise control and lane centering features
cidents and frequency, Roosevelt C. Mosley, principal for create a partially automated driving experience.
Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, said actuaries and insurers are So far, there is little if any evidence that these Level 2
asking the same question: “Does the decrease in accidents systems improve safety, but they can introduce new risks.
offset claims severity when a claim does happen?” “The problem is the better that the systems get, the more likely
Everyone acknowledges the safety benefit for humanity, people will rely on the system, and the overreliance will lead to
he said. “However, if ADAS costs insurers more, then you can additional crashes,” said Greg Brannon, director of automotive
argue it will not meet consumers’ expectations that as vehicle research at AAA. “The challenge for insurers is to think about
safety increases, insurance premiums should decrease. If how to deal with this,” he added.
ADAS costs insurers more, consumers will pay for it.” The more cars become automated, the more difficult it
Unfortunately, Mosley said, “safety devices were not is to determine who — or what — is driving. “This uncovers
designed with ease of repairability in mind.” However, there a whole new set of issues,” Brannon said. Lane-keeping as-
are some preliminary discussions with auto manufacturers to sistance, for example, introduces risk, he observed, because
change that, he added, but it
will take years before those Figure 1.
changes will be in new cars.
Calibration also is
necessary to ensure ADAS
CCC National Industry, Average Total Cost of Repairs - All Loss Categories
is working to its potential. Repairable Appraisal Statistics
$5,000 14.0%
Based on the higher inci-
12.4%
dence of post-repair issues, $4,500 12.0%

10.2%
auto repair workers struggle $4,000 10.0%
with calibration, according

Avg TCOR
$3,500 8.0%
to an IIHS study. About half 5.9%
$3,000 5.5% 6.0%
of the vehicle owners with 4.3%
4.6%
4.9%
$2,500 4.0%
at least one of their ADAS 2.5%
2.3%
applications repaired indi- $2,000 2.0%
cated system issues after job $1,500 0.0%

CY2019
CY2020
CY2021
CY2015
CY2016
CY2017
CY2018
CY2022
Thru July
completion.
'23
Autonomous ADAS 1
Source CCC Intelligent Solutions Inc updated through October 2023
©2023 CCC Intelligent Solutions Inc. All rights reserved.
The quest for auto autonomy

it can fight drivers for vehicle control and confuse who has option. After several mishaps, the pilot program was canceled
responsibility for driving. in October after a Cruiser hit a female pedestrian and dragged
Partial automation encourages motorists to drive faster her 20 feet across the road.
and engage in more distracting behaviors, David Harkey,
president of IIHS and HLDI, told members of Congress on EVs charging forward
March 2023. Promising to improve the environment, electric vehicles (EVs)
Meanwhile, there is concern that some manufacturers are growing in popularity. Besides attracting the interest of
may have oversold the capabilities of their automated systems, environmentally conscious consumers, public policymakers
misleading drivers to believe that the car can drive indepen- are encouraging automakers to put more EVs on the market.
dently without assistance. Two specific examples are Tesla’s As of second quarter 2023, there are about 3.7 million EVs
“Autopilot” feature and General Motors’ “Supercruise.” In in the United States, according to the Alliance for Automotive
response, IIHS is developing a rating system that measures the Innovation. More than half of EVs are luxury cars with more
effectiveness of safeguards to ensure drivers are keeping their safety-enhancing ADAS features, said Lu of LexisNexis Risk
eyes on the road and their hands are either on the wheel or Solutions. In contrast, China has 16 million EVs. The majority
ready to grab it. of them would be considered economy cars in the U.S. market.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration More affordable EVs could be coming into the U.S. market
(NHTSA) is also tracking the safety of automated systems, within the next couple of years from both domestic and inter-
Brannon said. The federal agency published a new stand- national automakers. NIO is just one Chinese auto manufac-
ing general order in 2023 that calls on specific automakers to turer that plans to sell their vehicles in the United States.
report crashes if Level 2 ADAS was used within 30 seconds EVs introduce new unknown factors and risks. The pow-
of a collision under circumstances such as accidents causing erful torque instantly delivered by EV motors, for example,
fatalities or requiring medical treatment. makes the cars accelerate faster when starting and could lead
Because the driver must intervene with automated sys- to parking lot accidents and speeding, Lu said. Drivers new to
tems, manufacturers urge customers to keep their hands on EVs need to retrain their muscle memory and become more
the steering wheel and pay attention. Before the introduction accustomed to the different handling of the cars, due to factors
of partial autonomy in vehicles, it probably would not have oc- that include regenerative braking, higher weight, and more
curred to drivers to let go of the wheel in the first place. powerful torque, he added.
“We do not believe in the promise of technology to In China, EVs have much higher risk than new ICE ve-
replace drivers completely and for the vehicle to assume all hicles, and it takes about three years for the risk gap between
responsibility for vehicle operations,” Harkey told Congress EVs and ICE vehicles to narrow out gradually, he added. The
because the cars cannot and might not be able to handle every latest research by LexisNexis shows a 31% higher paid claims
situation that arises. cost for new EVs in the U.S. market.
Cars closer to being fully autonomous may not be ready Economy EVs in China have less powerful torque and
for prime time either. Last summer, a fleet of Chevy Cruisers shorter ranges, resulting in fewer accidents and less expensive
was introduced in San Francisco as a public transportation repairs, Lu said. EVs are also vulnerable to battery damage

because the batteries are bulky and make up much of the bot-
tom of the vehicles, Lu added. Even a scratch of the packaging Affordability concerns
could allow water to get inside the battery packs and short Realizing more safety ADAS and transitioning to EVs
them. into the U.S. fleet largely depends on the willingness
Then there are the fire hazards. A National Transporta- and ability of consumers to purchase vehicles with more
tion Safety Board study reported that firefighters risk electric technology.
shock when putting out blazes caused by lithium-ion batter- However, Americans are holding on to their cars
ies. Besides being a concern for auto insurance, EV batteries nearly four years longer than they did a generation ago.
are also a property risk, Charak of Zurich said. “There is also a In 2023, the average car age was 13.6 years, up from 9.9
(fire) risk of charging stations at office buildings and homes,” years in 2003, according to S&P Global Mobility.
he added, asking, “How does it change the risks of those loca- Experts offer several macro trends to explain why
tions?” Americans hold on to their cars, but one rarely men-
What is known about electric vehicles is that they gener- tioned explanation is personal finance. Car ownership is
ally cost more to fix than conventional, or ICE, vehicles. Mos- becoming increasingly expensive and unaffordable for
ley said that most of the auto insurance industry's knowledge many Americans.
about EVs stems from Tesla data. He added that there are not According to a study by AAA, the average annual
enough electric vehicles from other manufacturers to provide cost to own and operate a new car in 2023 is $12,182 —
the best price coverage for EVs. compared to $9,666 in 2021. Consider that in 2022, the
Even Telsa, which offers insurance in five states, “realizes median household income declined by 2.3% to $74,580,
that insurers were not crazy when they were not discounting and the average cost of a used car was $26,213, accord-
insurance premium for Tesla cars as much as the auto manu- ing to Kelley Blue Book. New economy cars can range
facturer thought it should be,” Mosley said. anywhere from $40,000 and up, and the price tag for
Electric parts of EVs are likely integrated into high-level luxury vehicles is at least $60,000.
assembly, Lu explained, making it difficult to fix individual Meanwhile, consumers feel the pinch of rising pre-
parts and more likely that parts will be replaced as a whole, miums for personal auto coverage and repairing cars.
leading to expensive repairs. On the other hand, EVs in the During the first half of 2023, 12 states reported a 30% or
Chinese market have similar claim severity as ICE vehicles, more increase in the share of uninsured drivers com-
suggesting that design differences matter in repair costs and pared with the second half of 2022, J.D. Power reported
physical damage/property damage liability severity. in September. However, in five states, uninsured drivers
How quickly Americans will switch to electric cars decreased by more than 30%.
remains to be seen. “Manufacturers are reducing or delaying According to a survey by Jerry released in August,
production of EVs due to lack of demand,” said Louise Francis, 23% of respondents indicated they settled for less cover-
president of Francis Analytics. age than they thought needed. About one in five chose
Despite subsidization, many Americans consider EVs to a higher deductible in the past 12 months. Repairing
be unaffordable (see sidebar). “Moreover, the efficiency of and maintaining cars is also getting more difficult for
charging electric vehicles is far below that of gas powered or consumers. Respondents in a survey by FinanceBuzz
hybrid vehicles. Even at fast-charging stations, a full charge said the median availability of money to fix their cars
takes at least half an hour and can take a lot longer depending was $765.
on the type of charger, how fast the car is capable of charging
and the length of the wait at the charging station,” she added. continual technological evolution in vehicles and other factors
pressuring insurance costs. ●
Conclusion
Although insurers can deploy cost containment measures, Annmarie Geddes Baribeau wrote this article as an insurance
the reality is that barring an unforeseen disruption, insurers consultant. She is now the research manager at the CAS.
and consumers will likely continue to bear much of the cost of

CAS University
Recognition Program
Introducing the CAS University Recognition Program
The CAS University Recognition Program recognizes

academic institutions that are committed to preparing
future P&C actuaries through their educational offerings.
Recognized universities receive a robust set
of benefits and valuable opportunities for “We are thrilled to honor universities
exposure across the P&C industry and among through the CAS University Recognition
students considering actuarial careers. Program. We encourage all universities
committed to preparing property and
The program offers three levels of recognition, casualty actuaries to apply for the level
Bronze, Silver and Gold, displayed on a new that aligns with their programs.”
CAS website listing.
—Victor Carter-Bey DM, CEO of the
The CAS commends 16 of its past University Casualty Actuarial Society
Award winners for achieving recognition
within the new program. These universities
include:
Arizona State University Temple University
Brigham Young University University of California — Santa Barbara
Bryant University University of Connecticut
Georgia State University University of Illinois — Urbana-Champaign
Illinois State University University of New South Wales Sydney
McMaster University University of Texas at Austin
Middle Tennessee State University University of Toronto
Sri Sathya Sai Institute of Higher Learning University of Wisconsin — Eau Claire
Applications are now open on a rolling basis.

For more on the new CAS University Recognition Program, visit
casact.org/university-programs/university-recognition-program.
professionalINSIGHT
The AI Cheat Code: How ChatGPT (and AI Tools) Will (and Won’t)
Forever Alter Human Work By NICK WITRAS
A
lex Salkever — co-author of volume of data available for machine minded us of the risks and limitations of
the books Your Happiness Was learning has soared. AI systems. Just like any other algorithm,
Hacked: Why Tech is Winning He noted the increasing number of AI is only as good as the data it is given.
the Battle to Control Your Brain jobs in which AI performs better than Any bias in the output reflects the bias
— And How to Fight Back and do humans. However, we do not need already present in the input. He said, “AI
The Driver in the Driverless Car: How to worry just yet. Salkever presented the does not understand people, gender and
Our Technology Choices Can Change the three stages of human work that AI at- physics” and can sometimes produce
Future — was the featured speaker at the tempts to perform: nonsensical results.
CAS 2023 Annual Meeting. • Basic work entails writing emails, AI misuse is also rampant, and
In these books and in dozens of blogs, basic research, creating Excel Salkever pointed to the example of Cigna
articles published online, he explores formulas, writing computer code using AI to deny hundreds of thousands
exponentially advancing technologies and creating images, videos and of claims without any second-level
such as robotics, genomics, renewable text. human review. Further, he emphasized
energy, quantum computing, artificial • Medium work involves creating that AI does not understand the concept
intelligence, open-source software, business plans, performing detailed of truth, and therefore does not filter lies.
drones and driverless cars. research, writing simple computer Salkever cautioned against over-
Salkever served as a technology edi- programs and building websites. reliance on AI — it is dangerous and can
tor at BusinessWeek.com and as a guest • Advanced work includes nego- lead to the loss of repositories of public
researcher at the Duke University Pratt tiating among multiple parties, knowledge. He used navigation as an
School of Engineering. writing entire computer programs, example: When was the last time you
He opened his remarks by present- autonomously creating businesses, drove anywhere without the GPS?
ing the background behind the rapid navigating complicated systems He closed by sharing several ways
growth of artificial intelligence (AI). and conducting original research. AI is already in use today, such as:
Throughout history, technological Despite news of AI doing hard math • Transcribing meetings.
growth has always been exponential. optimization and passing difficult tests • Analyzing long documents.
He presented examples starting with such as bar exams and medical licens- • Conducting initial business re-
the invention of electricity, followed by ing exams, Salkever asserted that AI search.
the radio and mobile phones. The latest technology today can only do basic work • Business writing.
technology is AI, the most familiar ex- and has a long way to go before it can • Infrared inspecting of vegetation
ample of which, ChatGPT, amassed 200 perform more complicated tasks. through satellite scan when power
million users in just three months. He used the calculator as an ex- lines are knocked down.
He attributed this rapid growth ample. Did it replace accountants? Actu- • Creating better risk models (e.g.,
to four factors that are all constantly aries? Of course not. On the contrary, he Kettle).
being improved every year: computing shared two illustrative use cases for how At the end of the session, there was
power, networks, sensors and data. Over AI would help us at our work: a Q&A that has been paraphrased below
time, technologies that were once cost- • With more free time, we can do for brevity.
prohibitive are now affordable. Salkever more work.
cited gyrometers as an example; once • AI helps less-experienced workers Q: What insurance problems do you
bulky and expensive, now anyone can to learn their jobs. think AI will solve?
buy one for a few dollars. As a result, the Despite these benefits, Salkever re- A: Mitigating climate risk, health insur-

ance assessment and microinsurance. Q: What are your thoughts on data a battle royale for data. Many of the
protection with respect to using AI existing problems with AI are caused
Q: Are AI training sets mostly in for personal versus business use? by it being trained on social media — a
English? If yes, would bias exist? A: I am skeptical of disclaimers. While sub-optimal training source.
A: Yes, this is a known problem. Most of it is hard to pull private data, AI could,
the dataset is from the West. An example given the right prompts, theoretically Q: Are there intellectual property
of how this bias is addressed is in China, still do it. For now, be cautious with issues related to the use of AI,
where Chinese citizens are portrayed as private data, and definitely do not enter such as copyright/trademark
equals without a class system. Another it in public AI systems. infringement?
approach is textbook learning with A: There are. However, the providers of
smaller large language models, such as Q: Would over reliance on AI make AI such as Microsoft, Adobe, etc. have
the one Microsoft is using. our skills weaker? clauses that will indemnify you in the
A: Definitely. There are studies that show event you are sued for using their AI. The
Q: What are your thoughts about how the section of the brain responsible question now is: What constitutes fair
adding quantum computing to AI? for geospatial navigation gets atrophied use? ●
A: It is too early; the applications are because everyone uses the GPS even
limited for now. When it happens, it for driving short distances nowadays. Nick Witras, ACAS, MAAA, is a member
will turbocharge AI. We will have much Therefore, outsourcing swaths of our of the Actuarial Review Working Group.
faster problem solving, leading to new core knowledge is bad. Witras is a senior actuarial analyst for
problems we have not even thought Chubb. Witras is a radar expert, crypto
about. The problems of the future are Q: Has there been an increase in enthusiast and automation innovator.
going to be some version of, “What ques- gatekeeping information from AI?
tions should I ask?” instead of, “How can A: 100%. Big organizations are getting
I solve this?” their data scraped by GPT, and it is now

professionalINSIGHT
Dream or Nightmare? California’s Earthquakes, Floods and

Wildfire By DALE PORFILIO
T
aking a cue from its Los Angeles California Earthquake Authority (CEA); Figure 1.) Note that fire losses following
location, the CAS 2023 Annual Andy Neal from Aon; and Sheri Scott, an earthquake are covered by traditional
Meeting included two general FCAS, CSPA, from Milliman, Inc. Each all-perils homeowners policies, and
sessions focused on California’s speaker focused on one of the perils. tsunami losses are covered by flood
market. The Tuesday morning’s Ackerman led off with a deep dive policies.
session, “California Dreaming: Earth- on earthquakes. The NRI includes EAL She concluded her presentation by
quakes, Wildfire and Floods,” focused modeled using Hazus 6.0. Two-thirds of recounting the public policy and insur-
on the three highest-profile perils in the the U.S. earthquake EAL occurs in Cali- ance industry responses after major
state: earthquakes, floods and wildfire. fornia, and 78% in the combined Pacific California quakes, which are of particu-
California is the largest insurance mar- Rim states of California, Washington and lar interest for students of history. The
ket in the U.S., and these three perils are Oregon. She highlighted the notorious timeline started from the great 1906 San
all low-frequency, high-severity events. San Andreas fault running east of L.A. Francisco earthquake, which spawned
This contributes to the challenges of and a network of over 100 other faults the state’s first monitoring program, and
adequately pricing and underwriting across the region. Based on return peri- ran through the 1994 Northridge event,
insurance to cover these risks. ods from prior events, Southern Califor- which led to an availability crisis and
The Federal Emergency Manage- nia is overdue for a major earthquake. creation of the CEA as a public-private
ment Agency (FEMA) designed and With that background, Ackerman partnership. Today, the CEA provides
built the National Risk Index (NRI) for 18 then segued into the insurance as- two-thirds of the residential earthquake
natural hazards. Per the FEMA website, pects of this unique peril. Most impor- insurance policies sold in California.
“The NRI is an easy-to-use, interactive tantly, mortgage lenders do not require Neal then shifted the conversation
tool that shows which communities homeowners to purchase earthquake to flood risk, given his experience at
are most at risk to natural hazards. It coverage. So, the “take-up rate” on FEMA and involvement in the creation
includes data about the expected annual earthquake insurance, which primar- of the NRI. In contrast to earthquake and
losses to individual natural hazards, ily covers losses caused by shaking, has wildfire perils, riverine flood EAL in the
social vulnerability and community hovered between 10%-15% from 2002- NRI is based on historical data instead of
resilience, available at county- and 2022 after peaking above 30% following a prospective risk model, which can lead
Census-tract levels.” In short, FEMA has the Northridge earthquake in 1994. (See to an understated view of risk in areas
created a powerful resource for anyone
Figure 1.
involved in any aspect of catastrophe
management.
The general session moderator and
speakers used the NRI as the frame-
work for their presentations. Session
Moderator Carl Ashenbrenner, FCAS, of
Milliman, Inc., opened with an overview
of the NRI that included several maps
highlighting the significant amount of
exposure value and expected annual
losses (EAL) in California for all hazards.
He then introduced the three speak-
ers: Shawna Ackerman, FCAS, from the

Insurance Coverage
where the historical record lacks repre- Figure 2.
sentation of larger, less frequent flood-
National Flood Insurance Program Private
ing. That said, the recently implemented
5,200,000 700,000
Risk Rating 2.0 was FEMA’s attempt to
bring actuarially sound risk-based pric- 5,100,000 600,000
ing to the National Flood Insurance Pro-

5,000,000 500,000
gram (NFIP) using prospective private
#s of policies
sector and public sector risk models. 4,900,000 400,000
His brief history of flood risk em-

4,800,000 300,000
phasized key events following severe
river floods or major hurricanes. For 4,700,000 200,000
example, an 1862 river flooding led to

4,600,000 100,000
the nation investing in significant levees
around major waterways. Flood risk in 4,500,000 -
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2017 2018
California derives most prominently
Watermark NFIP PIF Data Call
from its many rivers, most notably in Residential Stan
the central valley, so levees were built
surance Coverage Source: NFIP Watermark Source: NAIC Private Flood Insurance
Source: NFIPStatements https://www.fema.gov/flood-insurance/work-with-
Watermark Statements https://www.fema.gov/flood-
around much of the state with mixed nfip/watermark-financial-statements and NFIP Policies in Force
insurance/work-with-nfip/watermark-financial-statements (PIF)
and NFIP Rolling
Policies in History as ofhttps://content.naic.org/industry_pri
from Policies In Force end of CY from
9/30/2023 Force Force (PIF) Rolling History as of 9/30/2023 Force
https://nfipservices.floodsmart.gov/reports-flood-insurance-data. from Policies in Force end of CY Data C
results. After the 1927 Great Mississippi https://nfipservices.floodsmart.gov/reports-flood-insurance-data
Call
River flood, the nation began to adopt Figure 3.
National
a more Flood
holistic Insuranceincluding
approach, Program Private Flood Policies in Force
000 700,000
floodplain management and structural
000
retrofitting for mitigation. 600,000
After major southern hurricanes
000 in 1962 and 1963 led to an insurance 500,000
#s of policies
availability crisis, the Federal Flood

000 400,000
Insurance Act of 1968 led to the cre-
000 ation of the NFIP. For the next 50 years, 300,000
the NFIP was the primary U.S. insurer

000 200,000
of flood risk, although take-up rates
000 nationally were very low. Homeowners 100,000
in designated flood zones were required

000 -
to purchase
2017 2018 the coverage,
2019 but the take-
2020 2021 2022 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Data Call Financial Annual Statement
up rate even inWatermark
these zones was still not NFIP PIF
Residential Stand-Alone Endorsement Commercial

universal. As captured in Figures 2 and
Source: NAIC Private Flood Insurance Data Call
Source: NFIP Watermark Statements https://www.fema.gov/flood-
3, the private market for flood coverage
insurance/work-with-nfip/watermark-financial-statements and NFIP Policies in
https://content.naic.org/industry_private_flood_data_call.htm 2020 through 2022
from Policies In Force end of CY from Financial Annual Statement Data, 2018-2019
Force (PIF) Rolling History as of 9/30/2023 Force
has grown in the last five years, while the Source: NAIC Private Flood Insurance Data Call https://content.naic.org/industry_private_
from Policies in Force end of CY Data Call, 2017 from Policies in Force end of PY Data
https://nfipservices.floodsmart.gov/reports-flood-insurance-data flood_data_call.htm 2020 through 2022 from Policies In Force end of CY from Financial Annual
Call
NFIP’s market share has declined. The Statement Data, 2018-2019 from Policies in Force end of CY Data Call, 2017 from Policies in
Force end of PY Data Call
growth of the private market may ac-
count for some of the NFIP’s decline. residences being built in the wildland of individual structures, depending on
Scott then delved into the com- urban interface (WUI) and increases in whether or not they have been in the
plexities of wildfire risk. California the replacement costs of homes. Relying footprint of prior events.
has the highest wildfire EAL of any on historical data solely will underesti- Unlike earthquake and flood,
state. The number of severe wildfires is mate the statewide prospective risk and wildfire is covered by standard all-peril
increasing with climate change, more over- or understate the prospective risk homeowners’ insurance policies. This

professionalINSIGHT
requires every insurer writing this cover- following earthquake rates, but not tion measures to receive a reduction
age to invest in the expertise to appro- wildfire rates, to be developed using in rate on their insurance. However,
priately price and underwrite wildfire catastrophe models and to consider more education is required for property
risk along with other, largely unrelated reinsurance costs.3 owners to understand that the cost to
perils. Wildfire risk contributors include: Scott suggested updating these mitigate damages to a property, whether
• Territorial considerations, including outdated Regulations as part of the solu- it be from wildfire, earthquake or flood,
location and proximity to wildlands. tion to the California property insurance will always be greater than the annual
• Property-specific characteristics, in- availability crisis, which was created as a insurance discount, which represents
cluding slope, fuel, access, precipi- result of insurers not being able to keep the reduction in average annual expect-
tation and winds. up with the cost of providing wildfire ed insured loss cost per property. While
• Structural considerations, including insurance. However, the outdated a wildfire may not impact a property for
roofing, eaves, vents and windows. Regulations are only part of the problem. many years, if ever, the mitigation may
Scott described how the current
state of California’s insurance market
Even with updated Regulations that allow insurers to use
has been impacted by the following catastrophe models to recognize the wildfire exposure
public policy events:
• The 1968 establishment of the
more accurately and give insurers the ability to include
California FAIR1 Plan to address the net cost of reinsurance in wildfire rates, there is little
availability challenges after a series
of fires in Southern California.
relief to insurers being able to charge adequate rates if
• Passage of Proposition 1032 in 1988, they can’t get the rates approved.
which required admitted property
insurance rates to go through a Even with updated Regulations that al- only nominally reduce the expected loss
prior approval process with the low insurers to use catastrophe models cost each year. The benefit of mitigation,
California Department of Insur- to recognize the wildfire exposure more however, is not just insurance discounts
ance, with provisions deeming the accurately and give insurers the ability that make a marginal contribution to
rates approved after 60 or 180 days, to include the net cost of reinsurance offset the cost, but more importantly
depending on details laid out in the in wildfire rates, there is little relief to that chances increase for the property to
legislation. insurers being able to charge adequate survive a catastrophe and more than just
• California Code of Regulations rates if they can’t get the rates approved. possessions — memories and loved ones
(Regulations) which required catas- It has taken over a year, on average, to — may be spared. There is an impact to
trophe rates to be developed using get a rate filing approved, making it dif- consumers and society that goes beyond
20 years of an insurance company’s ficult to keep up with the double-digit reduction in insurance premiums.
historical catastrophe losses and annual increase in cost to rebuild over Regulation 2644.9 is a step in the
which did not allow the insurer to the past three years. right direction, but not without in-
recover the net cost of reinsurance The recent implementation of creased costs to insurers. These costs
in catastrophe rates. These Regula- Regulation 2644.9 gives property owners can include implementing new con-
tions allow earthquake and fire incentives to implement wildfire mitiga- sumer notifications and keeping up with
1
Fair Access to Insurance Requirements
2
https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displayText.xhtml?lawCode=INS&division=1.&title=&part=2.&chapter=9.&article=10.
3
California Code of Regulations, Title 10, Section 2644.5 – Catastrophe Adjustment, “the catastrophic losses for any one accident year in the recorded period are
replaced by a loading based on a multi-year, long term average of catastrophe claims. The number of years over which the average shall be calculated shall be at
least 20 years for homeowners multiple peril fire.” In summary, Regulation 2644. 5 requires the use of 20 years of historical catastrophe data for admitted insurance
property ratemaking and Regulation 2644.4(e) provides an exception that allows earthquake and fire following earthquake ratemaking to use catastrophe models
and more modern methods recommended by Actuarial Standards of Practice. Regulation 2644.25 allows admitted earthquake insurance rates to include net cost
of reinsurance, but not wildfire.

inspections, such as through licensing consider wildfires in a similar manner as strong building codes, the development
arial imagery to confirm that mitiga- it considers hurricanes and earthquakes. of a risk-mitigation culture and the avail-
tion measures have been met and are The new, more robust RBC model is ability of advanced risk-management
being maintained. For some insurers required to be submitted as information tools. Wildfire and flood insurance mar-
struggling to maintain adequate rate only with the 2023 year-end financial kets should stabilize if and when these
level, implementing wildfire mitigation statement RBC model submission so same benefits are embraced for these
discounts without the ability to increase that the regulators can understand the perils. In particular, a culture of mitiga-
their rates to account for these addi- impact before they finalize the changes tion to help reduce losses and reliance
tional costs wasn’t an option, further to the RBC model. on actuarial ratemaking techniques have
contributing to the availability crisis. Moderator Ashenbrenner closed worked towards improving insurance
Another regulatory update to this general session by identifying some availability. ●
recognize wildfires is the risk-based themes that cut across the three major
capital (RBC) model that the National perils in California. He attributed the Dale Porfilio, FCAS, MAAA, is the chief
Association of Insurance Commission- stability of the state’s earthquake market insurance officer for the Insurance Infor-
ers (NAIC) task force has updated to to a high level of consumer awareness, mation Institute.
Professionalizing Artificial Intelligence: Lessons from Actuarial

Science By ERIN OLSON
J
ames Guszcza became an actuary 3. AI is an ideology, meaning the can lead to “artificial stupidity.” Guszcza
because he wanted to do data application of machine learning proposes that we break artificial stupid-
science work, even though that can advance a wider goal to benefit ity into two problems:
field didn’t exactly exist. Data humanity. 1. The first mile problem: Training
science was evolving, so it didn’t The third perspective is rooted in data isn’t given; it must be de-
have a name yet. In this Annual Meeting the history of AI. The founding fathers of signed. Train an algorithm on only
session, “Professionalizing Artificial AI first gathered at the 1956 Dartmouth one type of risk and it won’t recog-
Intelligence: Lessons from Actuarial Sci- Conference. They thought they could nize others. Additionally, some-
ence,” Guszcza looks at the diverse skills
and perspectives that actuaries apply to Effective and ethical AI needs human-centered design.
a wide variety of business problems and
presents us with a framework for what solve intelligence by 2001. This timeline times there are not enough edge
he proposes is another new job category: assumed that human intelligence was cases in the data to allow the algo-
hybrid intelligence. doing calculations and drawing logical rithm to adequately predict these
Artificial intelligence (AI) can be conclusions. This is what is considered possibilities. Next, you must create
viewed from three perspectives, which today to be First Wave AI. Second Wave a proxy variable for the outcome
are not as diametrically opposed as they AI is based on machine learning, statisti- being predicted. But certain social
may at first appear: cal pattern recognition in large data sets constructions do not have objective
1. AI is the new electricity, meaning it and especially deep learning. definitions — race, gender, “healthy
is a general-purpose technology. We often hear concerns that AI will patient,” “good employee,” etc. What
2. AI is an “intellectual wildcard,” evolve into something beyond human one person considers to be a “good
meaning an all-encompassing term control — perhaps the type of fears employee” may be very different
for any kind of emerging technolo- portrayed in a science fiction movie. This from another person’s definition.
gy, beyond the boundaries of scope is often driven by the sloppy language 2. The last mile problem: We care
and consequences. that we wrap around the technology and about outcomes, not algorithmic

professionalINSIGHT
outputs. A model can perform very can’t replace experts. The first mile tion of human behavior, change
well and accurately segment good problem tells us that humans must make management, and organizational
risks from bad risks, but one must the decision about what data should be design.
recognize the human element of used to train the model because only Guszcza does not consider actuarial
implementation. If underwriters are humans can tell the difference between science to be “applied math,” just as he
only discounting the good risks but appearance and reality. The second mile would not call hybrid intelligence de-
not surcharging the risks that the problem tells us that the implementa- velopment “applied computer science.”
model identifies as bad risks, the tion of any modeling solution will rely But rather, he says, each can be viewed
modeling effort has not achieved on an interaction with a human element. as “computational social sciences.” This
its goal. The key is to build good Humans working together with AI cre- field, comprised of learned profession-
models and integrate them into ates something Guszcza refers to as a als, can optimize how humans interact
smart workflows, recognizing the “diversity bonus” or a “collective intelli- with algorithms to achieve optimal soci-
importance of both the algorithmic gence” in which the outcome is superior etal outcomes that cannot be achieved
output as well as the human ele- to that which would be produced by through regulation alone. Designing the
ment. either on their own. human-machine interaction processes is
Effective and ethical AI needs Hybrid intelligence development is an essential component. ●
human-centered design. Guszcza the intersection of the following fields:
recalled a quote from Richard Nesbett • Statistics and machine learning Erin Olson, FCAS, is a member of the
and Lee Ross, psychologists at Stanford: — grounded in computation and Actuarial Review Working Group and the
“Human judges are not merely worse statistics. new CAS VP-Marketing Communications.
than optimal regression equations. They • Participatory design — multiple With 21 years in the actuarial field, Olson
are worse than almost any regression stakeholders and domain experts currently leads a group of decision science
equation.” The places most susceptible providing important context and analysts, supporting property claims at
to human bias are where algorithms can facilitating ethical deliberations. USAA.
reduce bias. And yet, today’s algorithms • Behavioral sciences — recogni-

ETHICAL ISSUES
The American Academy of Actuaries’ Applicability Guidelines

Puzzle Solution
By KENNETH HSU, FCAS, AND MIKE SPEEDLING, FCAS, MEMBERS OF THE CAS PROFESSIONALISM EDUCATION WORKING GROUP
The CAS Professionalism Education Product Development / Ratemaking / 1, 7, 11, 12, 13, 20, 23, 25, 29, 30, 38, 39,
Working Group designed a puzzle for the Pricing. Published in AR November/De- 41, 53, and 56. Following is the puzzle
Casualty practice area, and specifically cember 2023, the puzzle includes ASOPs solution. ●
M E A S U R E
U E C O N O M I C E
T R E N D I N G B X
E J P
R H O M O G E N E I T Y E
F I N D I N G C N
V C A T A S T R O P H E S
A S I R E
T U V M O D E L S
I F E P
V F L R A T E
C R E D I B I L I T Y I
C E
C O N T A G I O N T
O E L E V E R A G E
D O C U M E N T R
E T Y

actuarialEXPERTISE
Inflation and Loss Reserves: Analysis Across the Decades By JIM LYNCH
W
hen inflation hits, manage- reserve values at various inflation rates. • A medical claim. Payment depends
ment wants to know: How He compares the actual reserve to the on what is charged for treatment.
much inflation is baked values in that table and determines the Inflation affects the benefit until
into reserves; and how current reserves have baked-in inflation payment date.
much could future inflation between 7% and 8%. And the values in In theory, the author’s model
cost us? Actuaries across the decades the table show how future inflation will should handle each type of claim dif-
respond. change those reserves. ferently. The medical claims should be
Sir Issac Newton once said that he One nice result: The method devel- handled as Richards does. The death
saw further because he stood on the ops a single inflation rate across all years benefits should remain untouched. The
shoulders of giants.1 in the portfolio. That is easier to explain indemnity claims should be handled in
Here is an actuaries-on-shoulders to management than a table of numbers some manner in between.
story with professionals across three de- that might vary considerably from year Richards acknowledges both issues.
cades addressing a topic that again has to year. For Devil No. 1 (an inflation index), he
the profession’s attention: inflation. Two devils lie in the details, though: suggests figuring out the share of loss
Whenever inflation arises, actuaries Devil No. 1: How do you create an costs attributable to factors such as
hear two questions: inflation index appropriate for an insur- medical costs, legal fees, wages and so
• How much inflation is baked into ance portfolio? on. Then finding an inflation index that
current reserves? Devil No. 2: Over what period tracks each factor. Weight the indexes
• How much will future inflation does inflation act on a claim? Work- appropriately, and you have an index
increase reserves? ers’ compensation shows some of the that lets you credibly discount the
William F. Richards sought an- possibilities: 2
reserves.
swers in the late 1970s, when inflation
regularly topped 6% a year. The result: Here is an actuaries-on-shoulders story with
“Evaluating the Impact of Inflation on
professionals across three decades addressing a topic
Loss Reserves,” published as a discus-
sion paper in 1981. that again has the profession’s attention: inflation.
His approach was simple:
• Create a payout pattern of each ac- • A death benefit. In most U.S. states, Richards uses an index for auto
cident year’s losses. (“Squaring the the heirs of a worker killed on the bodily injury claims that is 60% from
triangle”) job receive a fixed death benefit, the Consumer Price Index for medical
• Discount those losses back to pres- set by law. Inflation has no direct care and 40% from the CPI for hourly
ent value. effect on the benefit. It only rises earnings of private non-farm production
• Project the losses back to their fu- if lawmakers or regulators decide it workers.
ture values at the projected inflation should. As far as I could tell, Richards was
rate. • An indemnity claim. Compensation silent on how to address Devil No. 2
Richards works an example with depends on the worker’s weekly (does inflation affect claims through ac-
a hypothetical book of auto bodily wage, which rises with inflation cident date, closed date or in between).
injury losses. He discounts reserves, until the date the worker is injured. His work can be remembered as the
then inflates them by between 5% and Inflation affects the benefit until shoulders that actuaries Richard G. Woll,
15% annually. He is left with a table of the accident date. Michelle Morrow and Timothy Conrad
1
Wikipedia tells me Newton’s famous statement itself stood on the shoulders of Bernard of Chartres, a 12th Century philosopher. So noted.
2
Robert Butsic grappled with this topic in a paper I discussed in an earlier Actuarial Review.

Auto Bodily Injury Losses
In his paper, “Evaluating the Impact of Inflation on Loss Re- Table 3.
serves,” author William F. Richards looks at auto bodily injury Development Period
losses from accident year 1972 to 1979 as of the end of 1979 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
(See Table 1). He projects losses through 1986. Some simple 1972 37 103 135 152 159 163 165 166
math shows the total reserve is 459. 1973 39 101 136 151 157 161 163 164
1974 37 106 137 151 159 164 166 167
Accident Year
Table 1. 1975 44 112 141 157 166 170 172 173
Development Period 1976 39 95 123 137 145 148 150 151
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1977 38 96 128 143 151 154 156 157
1972 37 107 143 164 175 181 183 185 1978 33 92 120 134 141 145 147 147
1973 41 112 157 177 186 192 195 197 1979 36 95 124 139 146 150 151 152
1974 42 130 172 193 207 215 219 221
Accident Year
1975 56 149 193 219 234 242 246 248

1976 53 137 183 208 221 229 232 235
Table 4.
1977 56 150 207 235 251 259 263 265
Development Period
1978 53 157 211 240 255 264 268 270
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1979 63 175 236 268 285 294 299 302
1972 37 107 143 164 175 181 183 185
1973 41 112 157 177 186 192 195 197
He expresses all payments in 1972 dollars by discount- 1974 42 130 172 193 207 215 219 222
Accident Year
ing with this table. Data through 1979 come from a weighted 1975 56 149 193 219 234 242 247 249
index: 60% Consumer Price Index for medical care and 40%
1976 53 137 183 208 222 230 234 236
Index of hourly earnings of produc-
Table 2. 1977 56 150 207 236 252 261 266 269
tion workers — Total Private Non-farm
Year Index 1978 53 157 212 242 258 267 272 275
(See Table 2).
1972 100 1979 63 177 240 274 293 303 309 312
Table 3 contains the discounted
1973 105
values.
1974 114
In his final step, Richards inflates Table 5.
1975 126
projected values by 10 percent annu- Future Rate
ally. He states the projections along 1976 137 Reserve
of Inflation
with the actual losses from the original 1977 149
5% 440
triangle. Under this scenario, the total 1978 161
6% 448
reserve grows to 481 (See Table 4). 1979 176
7% 456
His ultimate exhibit shows the ac-
Current Reserve 459
tual reserve in a simple table of infla-
8% 464
tion scenarios (See Table 5). Current reserves have inflation of
9% 472
7% to 8% baked in. Changes in the inflation rate would change
the reserve as indicated. 10% 481
11% 490
12% 499
13% 508
14% 517
15% 526
1
All amounts are in millions of dollars.

actuarialEXPERTISE
stood upon. claims at certain percentages. Accident Timothy Conrad attacked the matter
Woll was a contemporary of Rich- Year X+1 would weight them differently. in “Practical Considerations in Assess-
ards. Morrow and Conrad arrived nearly Iterate through all the calendar ing the Impact of Inflation on Carried
three decades later, when inflation years, and you end up with an Accident Reserves.”. It was published in the CAS
seemed ready to surge. Year by Calendar Year matrix. Woll cre- Forum in 2010.
Woll’s commentary accompanied ated such a matrix from actual workers’ Inflation then was certainly lower
Richards’ piece. He noticed different compensation data. than today, but there were real inflation
types of claims settle at different rates. But on Devil No. 2 – does inflation fears. In 2009, federal officials pumped
Using the workers’ compensation affect claims through accident date, money into the economy in response to
example, in any given accident year, closed date or in between – Woll kicks the beginning of the Great Recession.
the medical bills will likely be paid first;
indemnity settlements will follow. A
Woll’s commentary accompanied Richards’ piece. He
proper index would need more weight noticed different types of claims settle at different rates.
on a medical index early and more
weight on indemnity payments late. the can. He suggests populating another Fear of inflation ran high. Econo-
That means to properly deflate loss- Accident Year-Calendar Year matrix mist Arthur Laffer wrote in the Wall
es, every accident year within a calendar “judgmentally or through research.” Street Journal: “We can expect rapidly
year would need its own weighting. For How to judge or what to research is left rising prices and much, much higher
a given calendar year, Accident Year X to the reader. interest rates over the next four or five
would weight medical and indemnity CAS Fellows Michelle Morrow and years, and a concomitant deleterious

impact on output and employment not They struggled to find indices that did a rise in inflation/loss trend would in-
unlike the late 1970s.”3 good job of tracking the severity trends crease industry reserves by $41.7 billion
That didn’t happen, of course, but for a line of business. The failure that – or 7.2% of stated reserves.6
insurance management, like executives distressed them most: auto liability. I also allocated the losses by line of
everywhere, worried it might. The two Their suggestion: Deflate the business. Workers’ compensation was
most vulnerable, homeowners least.
They found that claim severity organized by the year My answer wasn’t the most sophis-
ticated. But it made an important point:
a claim closed correlated most highly with a host of
Insurers can’t neglect rising loss trends.
inflation indices. Not all managers will accept my
offer of just one answer. To deal with
questions – how much inflation is baked triangles “using a selection of indices those, actuaries should find firm footing
into our reserves, and how would rising with good ‘fits’ and evaluate the range of on the shoulders of Richards, Woll,
inflation grow them – returned. That ex- expected reserves needed under differ- Morrow and Conrad. ●
plains the timing of the Morrow-Conrad ent inflation assumptions.” They show
paper, in which they slew Devil No. 2. the result: a table of 19 columns (one for
They demonstrated empirically each inflation index) and 50 rows (five
that inflation affected claims as long as future inflation scenarios for 10 lines of
they were open. Actuaries didn’t have to business). That is a 950-cell table.
worry that inflation might not affect cer- The table reflects uncertainty in the
tain claims or that inflation only affected estimate, but it’s a bit busy. In my career,
a claim till the day it occurred. You could I found management gained little from
model all claims as if inflation operated a report so rich in fine-print data. This
on them continuously until the day they is particularly true because the best-
were closed. fitting indices – various permutations
They found that claim severity of the Consumer Price Index – don’t
organized by the year a claim closed change the results much. Borrowing
correlated most highly with a host of in- from Morrow and Conrad’s calculations,
flation indices. It was a better predictor
4
10% inflation will blow up commercial
than claims organized by Accident Year property reserves by 12% if you use CPI-
or Report Year. Housing index to deflate those reserves.
For almost every line of business If you use the CPI-All Items Less Food,
they studied, inflation appeared to affect that percentage only changes to … 15%.
claims from the moment they opened to When I modeled inflation, I focused
the moment they closed. They suggest
5
on management’s second inflation ques-
claims less affected by inflation might tion: the future. I estimated how much a
settle quickly, so they constitute a small change in the inflation rate would force
share of year-end reserves. In any event, reserves.
“this concern [Devil No. 2] was laid to For example, a 2015 presentation I
rest as regards our data.” gave at the Southwest Actuarial Forum
They had less luck with Devil No. 1. projected that a two percentage point
3
Arthur B. Laffer, “Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates — WSJ,” Wall Street Journal, June 11, 2009.
4
Morrow and Conrad focused on claim severity, rather than overall losses. Their research found that frequency confounded the analysis.
5
The exception was auto physical damage.
6
Jim Lynch, “Inflation from All Angles,” presentation to Southwest Actuarial Forum, San Antonio, TX, December 4, 2015.

viewPOINT
RANDOM SAMPLER
The Future of the CAS — A Confident Expectation of Success

By ROOSEVELT MOSLEY JR.
The following is the Presidential Address prayer. My father held on until I had newspaper published at the time. “There
given by Roosevelt Mosley at the 2023 An- been named valedictorian of my high is no reason why this society (known as
nual Business Session at the CAS Annual school graduating class. And while he the Casualty Actuarial and Statistical
W
Meeting in Los Angeles. didn’t get to experience any of the future Society) should not be as valuable to the
hen I was growing up, my successes with me here on earth, he had casualty business as the Actuarial Soci-
father told me that his seen enough to know that I was going to ety of America (now the SOA) has been
prayer was that God would be successful. to that of life insurance.” It was clear that
let him live long enough The CAS was founded in 1914, and while they may not have been thinking
to see me be successful. there have been a number of successes specifically about 10,000 members, the
Because my dad was a pastor of a Baptist that we have achieved as an organiza- foundation had been laid to achieve
church, my young mind assumed that tion over our 109-year history. One this milestone based on the value that
he must have special status with God, of those successes, as you have heard had been recognized by the insurance
and therefore I could expect my dad to about and will continue to hear about industry. Just like my father, even though
be around for a long time. In the fall of during this meeting, was reaching 10,000 I. M. Rubinow did not see results, maybe
my senior year of high school, however, members this year. As I have reflected on he knew that the foundation laid would
my father suffered a massive stroke. this milestone over the past few months, ensure the society would be successful.
While he survived the stroke, he was it got me thinking. I wonder if the origi- As I stand here today, reflecting on
never the same. He was moved from the nal 97 founding members even could the last two years of leadership of my
hospital to a nursing home, and it was in
this nursing home that he passed away As I stand here today, reflecting on the last two years of
– one week before my high school gradu-
ation. The funeral was two days before
leadership of my leadership journey, the last 30 years of
I graduated. As valedictorian, I had to my career and the 109 years of our Society’s existence,
give the valedictory address.
As a teenager who lost his hero, this
I can’t help but wonder what heights the CAS will reach
was a difficult time. As I processed his that we can’t really conceive of yet.
death, one of my initial reactions was
that God had not answered my father’s have envisioned achieving a milestone leadership journey, the last 30 years of
prayer. He didn’t get a chance to see like this. So I went back and did a little my career and the 109 years of our soci-
me graduate from college. He wasn’t digging. I actually read through the first ety’s existence, I can’t help but wonder
able to see me get married. He didn’t presidential address in 1915 by I. M. what heights the CAS will reach that
see his grandchildren. He didn’t get to Rubinow. While a lot of the address was we can’t really conceive of yet. Maybe
see my career grow or me become CAS about setting up the society and all that it is a numerical height – crossing some
president. But it wasn’t until many years had taken place in the first few months, new member threshold. Maybe it is an
later, once I had children of my own I did find a telling quote in Rubinow’s industry height – there could come a day
and watched them grow and develop, speech. It was from a publication called when the property and casualty insur-
that I realized God had answered his the Weekly Underwriter, an insurance ance industry is not the predominant

industry we serve. Maybe it is a global on great ideas or
height – could there come a day when because of great
the majority of CAS members are not leaders: They are
located in the U.S.? built on endur-
The truth is, I don’t know what ing processes
greater heights the CAS will achieve. that will last
Just like my father did not know exactly long after those
what heights I would achieve. Just like who built the
I.M. Rubinow did not know what greater processes. The
heights the CAS would achieve. But what CAS will reach
I am confident of is that as a society we new heights
will achieve new heights. My confidence because we have
comes from reflection on the past two and are build-
years of leadership, and I believe that ing processes
CAS President Roosevelt Mosley Jr. (2022-2023)
we have the right people focused on the that will endure.
right areas that will get us to the right You can see this, has never been membership growth. The
place. for example, in the Admissions Trans- goal has been to achieve our envisioned
The progression of our Society from formations Plan. The outcome of this future, which is that actuaries should
where we are now to where we will go plan will not just be a transformed basic be sought after for their ability to apply
reminded me of a book that was written education pathway, but a process that analytics to solve insurance and risk
almost 30 years ago by Jim Collins called will ensure that our basic education re- management problems. As we succeed
Built to Last. It is a companion to his mains the gold standard in the realm of in achieving this, membership growth
book, Good to Great, where he talked property and casualty actuarial. Another will continue.
about the characteristics of companies example of this is our current effort to The CAS Board went through a stra-
that turned good results to great results. modernize the way we govern ourselves. tegic planning process in 2019–2020 that
In Built to Last, he talks about turning One key outcome is a process by which did just this, and it laid the foundation
great results into enduring great com- our governance processes will continu- for us to begin going through this pro-
panies. I would argue that our history ally be evaluated against best practices. cess again, as the Board has discussed
has demonstrated a progression of good As we build clocks, it will ensure that we the strategic plan over the past year. This
on the way to great, and I believe that maintain our leading position as P&C effort starts with the key important first
greatness can endure. In Built, Collins actuaries. step — understanding our “core pur-
describes nine characteristics of great Second, enduring great companies pose,” understanding our “why.” While
companies that endure. In the interest are about more than profits. They find our “why” will not change every time
of time, I will only highlight four and use their organization’s purpose and build we review the plan, the tactics on how
those to illustrate with examples from the core ideology. As a professional we fulfill our purpose may. The process
the past year that demonstrate why I association, our focus is not profits. You is established and is being solidified to
believe the CAS is on the way to new could point to other metrics, such as continue even after all of us are gone.
heights. number of members or surplus ratio. Re- And I can tell you that your volunteer
First, enduring great companies gardless of the KPI, the point is still ap- leaders are fierce about remaining true
don’t tell time, they build clocks. When plicable. The goal is not to maximize the to our core ideology.
you tell time, that is valuable at the mo- KPI; the goal is to be the best at fulfilling Third, great enduring companies
ment. When you build a clock, it ensures our organization’s purpose. If we do have cult-like cultures and a cult-like
that those who come after you will be that well, the results will come. We have adherence to the culture. Every time I
able to tell time after you are gone. been celebrating the 10,000-member get a chance to speak to students, can-
Enduring great companies are not built milestone, but we realize that the goal didates and new members, I talk about

viewPOINT
the culture of the CAS as being one of its students. organization is built to identify, analyze
primary key attributes. I brag with pride • Members pushing us into develop- and react to trends as they develop, then
every chance I get about the fact that ing areas such as climate risk and we can be confident that the CAS will
30% of our members volunteer in some bias in rating. be built to last, and reach milestones we
capacity with the CAS. Other organiza- I.M. Rubinow likely had no idea can’t even envision yet.
tions only dream of that kind of partici- what we would be facing in 2023. Thirty Before I conclude, I have some
pation. And this level of engagement years ago, I couldn’t have predicted the personal thanks. Being able to fulfill the
means that the research we produce, things we would be facing now. The duties of this role does not happen with-
the continuing education events we host explosion of data, machine learning and out the help of a ton of people.
and the quality of our operations are AI, automated vehicles, the internet of First to my family: Yashica, Bria,
second to none. things, climate change, cyber liability Michael and Brooklyn. To those at Pin-
I have seen numerous examples of — the list goes on and on. In 1915 when nacle: the partners, team and Michelle
this engagement from our members over Rubinow talked about the need to apply Jones. To those at the CAS: Board,
the past two years, and I truly thank you actuarial science to the emerging area Executive Council, Victor Carter-Bey,
for that engagement. Examples include: of automobile liability, I don’t think he staff and Laura Stout. Lastly, to each
• Feedback regarding what you liked contemplated a time when the car would member. It has truly been an honor and
and didn’t like so much. not require a person to drive it. Similarly, a privilege to serve you this past year,
• Passion around DE&I. there are things that, sitting here today, and I truly do hope that I left things a
• Faithful observers of our board are not even on the radar. But that’s little better than I found them. ●
meetings. OK. We don’t need to know what those
• Volunteers engaging with university things are. Because if we ensure that our
RANDOM SAMPLER
To Thrive, Embrace Your Strengths By ROGER HAYNE

The following is the Address to New those tools to tease out patterns hidden money (their earnings) where their
Members that Roger Hayne gave at the in vast quantities of data. You can say mouth is when it comes to concerns
2023 Annual Business Session at the CAS our members have been instrumental about AI.
W
Annual Meeting in Los Angeles. in applying “artificial intelligence” to A few years ago, an Oxford Universi-
elcome to all new members insurance problems. But will we be the ty/NPR study estimated that “47% of U.S.
of the CAS, an organization victims of our own success? workers have a high probability of seeing
now with more than 10,000 If you listened to local Los Angeles their jobs automated over the next 20
members. Wow! To put that television news over the past five or years.” In addition, they estimated that
in a bit of perspective, when six months, you would have heard just in that time there’s about a 21% chance
I joined, I was one of less than 900. No, how serious some see AI as a threat. The that a machine will be able to do an
that wasn’t the size of my ACAS class but Writers Guild of America went on strike actuary’s job.
of the entire CAS. for 148 days with AI being a significant In comparison they put that chance
We have come a long way. Along bargaining point. The actors in SAG- at about 98% for bookkeepers, 89% taxi
the way, the CAS and our members have AFTRA have also been on strike since drivers, and 96% for restaurant cooks.
been instrumental in applying data sci- July, again with AI being a significant On the other hand, head chefs stood
ence to solve insurance problems, using concern. These groups literally put their only about a 10% chance, college profes-

sors (something I used to do part time) own shoes during
3%, while it’s 0.3% for mental health and the receptions. All
substance abuse social workers. right, maybe a bit
Compared to some of these, our of an exaggeration,
jobs seem pretty secure, but we still but in all honesty,
have something like one chance in five only a bit, and I was
of being replaced by machines. Maybe a probably one of
more optimistic view is that about 20% those most closely
of what we are doing now can be done examining my own
better by a machine in the future. Other polish. She knew
similar studies done since this one offers how important it
different percentages, but not necessar- was to be able to
ily radically different results. work with people.
We should look at this as an op- Relationships I built
CAS Past President Roger Hayne (2009–2010).
portunity. Calculators were once seen at those meetings
as a threat to actuaries. Very early in my and working in the method or type of analysis to work in all
career I can recall hearing old timers say CAS have lasted my entire career and the situations we face. As such we deal
that when programmable calculators helped me on both a professional, and with new problems quite often.
were first introduced, some consultants more importantly, a personal level. Part of problem solving is under-
worried they would reduce the billable We should embrace human interac- standing the underlying nature of what
time from their staff. We now see that tion. we are estimating. Data science can
automation simply freed up time to do Teamwork or collaboration is a give us insight into patterns that may
things humans could do better. hallmark of a truly strong actuary. The exist and may give “accurate” forecasts
What are those things? What sepa- reserving actuary needs to understand as long as things do not change. Unless
rates those jobs that have a high chance company operations and collaborate we can provide not only estimates, but
of being replaced by machines and those with financial and claims people to bet- also understanding what affects those
with a low one? Generally, those jobs ter interpret reserving analysis. The rate- estimates, we have really not solved the
with a low chance of being replaced by making actuary needs to understand not problem.
machines require creativity, collabora-
tion, negotiation, problem solving, and
We should not fall prey to the idea that there is “one
human interaction in some combina-
tion. These are things that we humans right way” to solve a problem.
can do well and that seem to be difficult
to automate (at least in the foreseeable only the data but the market in which We should embrace problem solv-
future). the company operates, but also work ing.
So, to help assure our contin- with underwriting and sales profession- Creativity often works hand in
ued future, we might want to think of als. The valuation actuary works as part hand with problem solving. When faced
embracing problem solving, creativity, of a team, as does the actuary working in with a problem that normal techniques
collaboration, negotiation and, the hard- risk management. cannot address, we are forced to think
est for the stereotypical actuary, human In short, we should embrace team- creatively to find new approaches. Our
interaction. No more looking at the other work and collaboration. syllabus is quite good at exposing us to
person’s shoes! We P&C actuaries are at home with a wide range of methods to deal with a
My wife loves telling stories of early problem-solving. The wide range of large portion of the hazard risks we will
CAS meetings we both attended. To hazard risks that we deal with makes it face. Our exams test whether we select
hear her tell it, we all were looking at our very difficult (impossible?) for a single

viewPOINT
the most appropriate one to deal with a photo editing software have automated ing into too many details, the opposing
particular problem. However, we should a significant portion of the mechanical expert was a Ph.D. in econometrics from
not fall prey to the idea that there is “one part of a photographer’s job. Now a lot Princeton and came up with a rather
right way” to solve a problem. Histori- more folks can take technically correct convoluted (and creative) methodology
cally our exams tended to promote that photos and rely on Photoshop to hide to come up with his own inference. I was
idea, though current steps toward more their mistakes. Just look at social media able to show in court, using marbles and
integrative questions help recognize sites. In short, it is now much easier to buckets, that he could get any result he
creativity more in our exams. be a mediocre photographer. wanted with his methodology.
Our oldest son has a BFA in photog- Truly accomplished photographers The judge ended up ruling that his
raphy, a creative craft based on rather will still rise above the crowd. Just as methodology was essentially “junk sci-
technical science. I too dabble in pho- automation makes it easier to take tech- ence” and not admissible as evidence.
tography and have learned quite a bit nically correct photos, it will mean it will As a result, I have it in writing, from
from him. Photography is almost natural be easier for non-actuaries to do actu- a Federal judge, that “[the opposing
for an actuary. The interaction of light arial calculations. As the true photogra- expert] was not able to show Hayne has
reflected off a subject and film speed (I pher, the true actuary must understand lost his marbles.” I cannot believe that a
use the old term though film is nearly not only the mechanics and fundamen- Ph.D. in econometrics from Princeton
impossible to find), shutter speed, lens tals but be able to apply them to create was not aware that what he was suggest-
opening or f-stop, and lens focal length, their final product. This understanding is ing had no basis in statistical theory, yet
appeals to the quantitative bent of an a value we bring to our principals. he went forward with this “junk science”
actuary. In addition, these “parameters” We should embrace creativity and with the result that his client essentially
can be manipulated to achieve certain understanding. had the crux of his case thrown out of
effects in the final image. All this is a This leaves the last characteristic of court. I could never have done the same
science and appeals to the actuary’s a future-proof job – negotiation. thing, because as an actuary I have
mathematical talents. We all know that actuarial esti- to abide by our Code of Professional
The art comes in with seeing the mates are just that – estimates. As such, Conduct.
image you want to capture. A good way there is usually a “range of reasonable We should embrace negotiation
to expand your creativity is to challenge estimates” and a range of methods for and professionalism.
yourself to capture interesting images, obtaining estimates, making negotia- In summary, I have long seen
with minimal use of Photoshop. I take tion a key feature of an actuary’s job. Just technology taking over portions of the
advantage of my son’s experience and about all of us have had or will have to actuary’s job. Rather than eliminating
knowledge to challenge me. If you don’t engage in negotiation at some point or the job, technology has freed me to be
have access to a built-in mentor, photog- another. more creative in my problem solving,
raphy classes in local colleges or adult What sets us apart though, is the allowed me more time to collaborate
education facilities might be good places fact that we are professionals and not and interact with others, granted me
to look. These classes first deal with just practitioners. We have the code of more time to delve into the data to give
photography mechanics, fundamentals professional conduct, a duty to our pro- my principal a better insight into what
and techniques. Once that foundation is fession and our principals, essentially is happening in the company, and given
set, there are various exercises to expand putting limits on our ability to negotiate. me the ability to understand the limits of
the photographer’s creative eye. This also is a significant asset for us. Our my negotiation.
A word of caution, though. The principals can trust we will abide by our With care and foresight, you too can
NPR/Oxford calculator gives a 2.1% code of conduct. survive and thrive with technological
chance of the job of photographer being I had a direct experience of this dif- change — embrace the future.
replaced by machine. However, that is ference not too long ago. I was hired as Thank you and congratulations on a
not to say automation is not a threat. an expert witness in a case involving sta- fantastic accomplishment. ●
Current feature-rich digital cameras and tistical sampling and inference. Not go-

IN MY OPINION By GROVER EDIE
Reboot
“D
id you reboot?” has been series of unavoidable events occurred, case before PCs and the internet allowed
the staple question of IT filled my weekend, prevented me from us to bring work home.
support staff for so long working on the project. Since I couldn’t One of my fond memories hap-
that many of us reboot work on it, my mind was eventually pened when I worked in New York
before even calling. I have freed from thinking about the project for City, before personal computers and
found that when my PC acts erratically, a full two days. When I returned to work the internet. I would take the Staten
I reboot, and that usually clears things on Monday morning, I was able to finish Island Ferry from Manhattan, where I
up. This can also happen with your the next step quickly — and without the worked, to Staten Island, where I lived.
smartphone. gloomy aura. I would sit on the back of the ferry and
It seems that things get “stuck” in a It was as if that non-work weekend watch the Lower NYC skyline fade into
computer’s register, or some part of the caused my brain to reboot. the background. I was able to mentally
software, or an application gets stuck Perhaps the reason for the fourth of leave work while I watched it physically
in some mode or setting. Restarting the the 10 Commandments, “Keep holy the disappear.
device or unit sometimes does the trick. sabbath,” is not just about obedience but Now, people who work from home
This also works on a washing machine. for our own refreshing (rebooting): “Six don’t have such a commute. Work life
Mine got stuck in a cycle, rinsing and days you shall do your work, and on the and home life are blurred. Their com-
rinsing and rinsing and never getting out seventh day you shall rest, that your ox mute might be to walk to the spare
of the cycle. I looked up the problem on- and your donkey may rest, and the son bedroom after stopping for coffee in
line and found that the machine needed of your female servant and the stranger the kitchen — a far cry from driving or
to reboot, accomplished by unplugging may be refreshed.” 1
taking public transportation to work and
it for 10 minutes and then plugging it I used to have one day a week that I stopping at a coffee shop before riding
back in. would not use my PC. Usually a Saturday an elevator to your floor. There is no
I think of rebooting as “flushing out or Sunday, but it kept me from doing longer a time nor a spatial separation
the system.” Like cleaning the exhaust work and was, I admit, refreshing. between work and personal life. The old
vent for your clothes dryer; it runs We need to refresh ourselves peri- method of rebooting daily is gone, and a
smoother once that is done. odically, weekly works pretty well. new one needs to be created.
You may have experienced a project We need to reboot on a daily basis In my opinion, we all need a means
that totally occupies and preoccupies as well. Call it a “mini reboot.” I read of rebooting our brains on both a weekly
your mind. My wife Diane says that a about work/life balance, but I find this and a daily basis. What’s yours? ●
project “consumes me.” I work on the hard to do unless I separate my work
project constantly: I wake up thinking from my home life, both spatially and Grover M. Edie, FCAS, CERA, CPCU,
about it, think about it all day, go to bed mentally. The mental separation is the MAAA, ARM, is the former Actuarial
thinking about it and even wake up in most difficult. Review editor in chief, and continues his
the middle of the night thinking about it. Back when we went into the office, service as a member of the AR Working
Not too long ago, I had a major and we rebooted daily as we went home to Group. After his weekend reboot, he is a
complex project consuming me. a different environment — a different consulting actuary for Huggins Actuarial
But while working on the project, a atmosphere. This was even more the Services, Inc.
1
New King James Version of the Bible.

solveTHIS
IT’S A PUZZLEMENT By JON EVANS
Infinitely Many Equal Pieces
G
iven any finite positive real Desire For Dessert Among answered, “No.” If one of them does not
number A, can you define a set Logicians want dessert then it is not true that all of
S, in the two-dimensional plane, In this puzzle, a group of N logicians them want dessert. So, the Nth logician
with area A and a partition of S are having dinner at the same table at will answer, “Yes” if he wants a dessert,
into infinitely many sequentially a restaurant where they can all talk to since all of the other N-1 logicians must
numbered subsets S1, S2,…. such that each other. They have finished the main have wanted dessert in order to answer,
any two of these subsets are isometric? course, but none of them has any idea “I don’t know.” However, if the Nth
Show it or prove it impossible. Isometric which of the others want to have dessert. logician does not want a dessert, he will
in this case will specifically mean two The waiter stops by their table and asks answer, “No”.
subsets related by a one-to-one map- them, “Do you all want to have dessert?” Solutions were also submitted by
ping that only involves translation and/ N – 1 of the logicians each answer in Shyam Bihari Agarwal, Sean Bailey, John
or rotation in the plane. Partition means succession, “I don’t know.” The puzzle Berglund, Jordan Bonner, Roger Bovard,
that the subsets are pairwise disjoint question was: “How might the Nth logi- Samuel James Chilson, Bob Conger, Jon
and that their union equals S. Can you cian then answer?” Constable, Stephanie Dobbs, Jacob Fli-
generalize your answer to a higher If any one of the logicians had not sakowski, Kristen Fox, Kacey L. Gilman,
dimensions? wanted dessert, that logician would have Josh Grode, Othon Hamill, Shira Jacob-
son, Rich Kollmar, Adina Landesman,
Jerry Miccolis, Travis Murnan, Dave
Oakden, Greg Ostergren, Sean Porreca,
Alexander Rosteck, Michael Schwalen,
Kwong Koon Shing, David Spiegler, Rick
Sutherland, Scott Swanay, Rob Thomas,
David Uhland and David Vogt. ●
Know the answer?

Send your solution to
ar@casact.org.

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dence of post-repair issues, $4,500 12.0%

with calibration, according

applications repaired indi- $2,000 2.0%

cated system issues after job $1,500 0.0%

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