Afon - The Dynamics of Crime Opportunities Evidences From Weather Conditions and Spatial Pattern

Papers in Applied Geography
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The Dynamics of Crime Opportunities: Evidences

from Weather Conditions and Spatial Pattern of
Residential Neighborhood in Ibadan, Nigeria
Abel O. Afon & Adewumi I. Badiora
To cite this article: Abel O. Afon & Adewumi I. Badiora (2017): The Dynamics of
Crime Opportunities: Evidences from Weather Conditions and Spatial Pattern of
Residential Neighborhood in Ibadan, Nigeria, Papers in Applied Geography, DOI:
10.1080/23754931.2017.1346520
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23754931.2017.1346520
Published online: 10 Aug 2017.
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Download by: [Australian Catholic University] Date: 21 August 2017, At: 13:44
PAPERS IN APPLIED GEOGRAPHY
https://doi.org/10.1080/23754931.2017.1346520
RESEARCH ARTICLE
The Dynamics of Crime Opportunities: Evidences from Weather

Conditions and Spatial Pattern of Residential Neighborhood in
Ibadan, Nigeria
Abel O. Afon and Adewumi I. Badiora
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria
Downloaded by [Australian Catholic University] at 13:44 21 August 2017
ABSTRACT KEYWORDS
Not much is known about spatial-temporal variations of crime in Nigeria. The Climate; crime opportunities;
gap is addressed by this study, having examined the pattern of assaults, routine activities; social
break-ins, and robberies in the city of Ibadan, Nigeria. Multinomial logistic disorganization; spatial-
regression was used to estimate the odds that each crime will occur under temporal analysis;
temperature aggression
the effects of weather conditions and spatial characteristics of residential
neighborhood. Findings reveal that assaults and robberies are intense in the
high-density areas, whereas the risk of break-ins is stronger in the low-
density neighborhoods. Results show that the risk of assaults and break-ins is
strong in the dry season, whereas, in the rainy season, robberies are more
frequent. Similar to previous international research, findings in this study are
largely in line with the frameworks of routine activities, social disorganization,
and temperature aggression, which emphasizes that crime will always display
an uneven distribution and that this variation is the result of the
interrelationship between environment and a wide range of socioeconomic
characteristics summarized in urban development patterns.
Debate on crime opportunities has attracted different ideas. Earlier explanations have been grounded
in routine activities, social disorganization (SD) theory, and temperature aggression theory. It has been
argued that crime is not absolute, but rather relative and can vary with time and space (Badiora 2016).
This is factual, as a number of studies have found that crime occurrences change rapidly in response to
the structure of daily life. For instance, whereas major shifts have been found in robbery locations
from afternoon to early morning, and weekdays to weekends within the vicinity of schools, parks, and
nighttime trade (Adams, Herrmann, and Felson 2015), others have found high crime risk in certain
entertainment areas in the early evening, and still other entertainment areas experience more crime
problems after midnight (Newton and Hirschfield 2009; Grubesic and Pridemore 2011). Crime on
transit systems has been shown to be highly dynamic and related to surrounding environments with
distinct patterns in both space and time (Ceccato and Uittenbogaard 2014; Newton, Partridge, and Gill
2014; Badiora, Ojewale, and Okunola 2015).
Shaw and McKay (1942) and Liu, Song, and Xiu (2016) found that different microscale spatiotem-
poral crime patterns were evident for different types of crime within high-crime areas in Chicago. Par-
ticularly, drug dealing, robbery, burglary, and motor vehicle theft all had their own unique spatial-
temporal patterns. Afon (2001), Brantingham and Brantingham (2003), Phillip (2008), Adigun (2012),
and Badiora (2012) concluded that crime is influenced and compounded by a wide range of socioeco-
nomic characteristics that are summarized in urban residential patterns. Afon (2001) found that all
CONTACT Adewumi I. Badiora wumi_zion@yahoo.com Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Obafemi Awolowo
University, 12A Mission Road, Lagere, Ile-Ife, Nigeria.
Color versions of one or more of the figures in the article can be found online at www.tandfonline.com/rpag.
© 2017 Applied Geography Conferences
2 A. O. AFON AND A. I. BADIORA
categories of crime investigated occurred in the high-density area of Ilorin, Nigeria. Nonetheless, some
crime is peculiar to certain densities. Badiora (2012) observed that crime rates were unevenly distrib-
uted throughout the city of Ile-Ife, Nigeria, in a nonrandom manner and that neighborhoods in the
city center were those with the highest rates.
Some investigations have reported that property crime increases in the summer (see Andresen and
Malleson 2013; Linning, Andresen, and Brantingham 2016), whereas other investigations have
reported winter peaks (see Yan 2004). Results of studies of crimes against the person are also contradic-
tory. Yan (2000) found no particular season for homicides in the United States, nonetheless Hakko
(2000) observed a statistically significant seasonal pattern for homicides in Finland. Hird and Ruparel
(2007) found summer peaks for assaults in the United Kingdom, whereas other studies have failed to
find any consistent seasonal trends for these types of crimes (see Hipp et al. 2004). Breetzke and Cohn
(2012) found that the summer season was the highest in all assault categories except that of indecent
assault, whereas the lowest incidences of assault were evident in the autumn and winter months.
Although the previous research and many other studies have enhanced our understanding of
dynamics of crime opportunities, there still exist many more unanswered questions in Africa, particu-
larly in Nigeria. Even though much is known on spatial patterns of crime, very little is known about
the effects of weather conditions on crime in Africa and Nigeria specifically. As dynamics of crime
opportunities particularly, the effect of weather conditions is becoming more prominent in the litera-
ture but consists primarily of research conducted in Western countries (e.g., Hipp et al. 2004; Uittenbo-
gaard and Ceccato 2012; Andresen and Malleson 2013; Linning, Andresen, and Brantingham 2016)
and South Africa (e.g., Breetzke and Cohn 2012; Breetzke 2016), so it would benefit through this study
from further investigation into the Nigerian context.
Nigeria is undergoing a tremendous transformation, becoming more diverse and multifaceted every
day. Urban centers are now far more diverse and differentiated: Neighborhoods vary along social and
economic dimensions, residential mobility is increasing, and the urban population is more heteroge-
neous. All of these developments could suggest increasing risk of crimes and changing crime patterns
in Nigerian cities. One cannot understand the development of crime in Nigerian cities without empiri-
cal research that examines the underlying macro- and microlevel processes. Exploring and analyzing
patterns of urban crimes can provide crucial information about crimes and form indispensable bases
in the development of theoretical explanations and effective policing practices. This study believed that
a better understanding of crime dynamics can lead to more efficient policy implementations. More spe-
cifically, this research can assist any government in knowing when and where to implement crime pre-
vention initiatives as well as when and how to evaluate them.
This study therefore, seeks to explore the distribution of crime in a Nigerian city. The study esti-
mates the odds that crime will occur under the effects of weather conditions and spatial characteristics
of residential districts in urban areas of Nigeria using Ibadan as a case study regarding the following
research questions: What crime patterns are generated? Are these patterns driven by socioeconomic
characteristics of residents? How is this influenced by the weather condition and the spatial environ-
ment within which these crimes occur? Based on these research questions, this study contributes to the
existing body of literature in an attempt to provide empirical facts about weather conditions and spatial
pattern of residential neighborhoods in understanding crime opportunities in a Nigerian environment.
This empirical study contributes to our understanding of how some key theories can be used to explain
urban crimes in Nigeria. It offers an important verification and replication of previous research based
on key theoretical and practical approaches.
Theoretical framework and literature review

As mentioned earlier, debate on the dynamics of crime opportunities is grounded in SD theory (Shaw
and McKay 1942), routine activities (Cohen and Felson 1979), and temperature aggression theory
(Anderson and Anderson 1984).
Between 1920 and 1960, Shaw and McKay examined patterns of juvenile delinquency within the city
of Chicago. Their findings led to SD theory. They found that juvenile delinquency rates conformed to
PAPERS IN APPLIED GEOGRAPHY 3
regular spatial patterns that decreased with increasing distance from the city center. Shaw and McKay
argued that areas characterized by such factors as low socioeconomic status, ethnic heterogeneity, and
residential mobility tend to have higher rates of victimization of residents than other areas. They
believed these factors cause the disorganization that leads to the weakening of social control and the
development of delinquent subcultures, and prevents residents from coming together to solve neigh-
borhood crime problems (Shaw and McKay 1942).
SD theory is a meso theory, as it examines the social dimension and distribution of crime across
neighborhoods. Because SD theory analyzes groups of people in a fixed objective space, environmental
criminology moves to the analysis of subjective space. Subjective space takes into consideration the
space as perceived by an individual. This is based on the premise that behavior is influenced by the
environment; that is, physical, social, psychological, and legal, as well as cultural settings all influence
behavior (Brantingham and Brantingham 1984). This move toward subjective space led to the develop-
ment of routine activity (RA) theory.
Cohen and Felson (1979) developed RA theory to explain why crimes occur. It focuses on opportu-
nities and risk, rather than on offender motivation, and is based on the idea that for an understanding
of criminal behavior, one needs to understand how individuals routinely use their time (Breetzke and
Cohn 2012). This theory postulates that individuals generally follow strict daily, weekly, and even
monthly routines, which affect opportunities for crime and risk of victimization (Brunsdon et al.
2009). Some of these routine activities are obligatory, with a reasonably fixed duration, and are difficult
to change, such as work, whereas other activities are discretionary, such as socializing, and individuals
have a greater amount of choice as to whether they will engage in these activities and when they will
occur (LeBeau and Corcoran 1990; Breetzke and Cohn 2012). RA theory also states that for a crime to
occur, three elements must converge in time and space. These elements are a motivated offender, a
suitable target, and the absence of a capable guardian against criminal behavior (Cohen and Felson
1979; Brantingham 2013; Newton and Felson 2015). The guardian here was not usually a police officer
or security agent, but rather anybody whose presence or proximity would either prevent or discourage
a crime from happening. Guardianship is often unintentional and might not be prepared for, yet still
has a powerful impact against crime (Badiora 2012).
Both SD and RA theories attempt to explain crime by examining socioeconomic and demographic
aspects. These variables change slowly over time, however, and might not be able to effectively explain
short-term variations in crime rates. Furthermore, most of the assumptions of these theories focus on
long periods of time, considering units of analysis such as daytime, weekdays, months, and years. They
ignore the large range of variation in crime incidences within each daytime, weekday, month, and year
that is seen when smaller units of analysis are examined. With all these inadequacies, scholars believe
that one aspect of the physical environment that, in addition to socioeconomic and demographic
aspects, might provide a better explanation of crime occurrences and have a major impact on social
behavior is weather conditions. This led to the emergence of temperature aggression theory.
Temperature aggression (TA) theory contends that because higher temperatures act as psychological
causal mechanisms in persons, increased temperatures lead to greater aggression, increasing crime
rates (Anderson and Anderson 1984). This theory suggests that hot temperatures lead to increased dis-
comfort in individuals, and thus increase the likelihood of aggression. Essentially, the relationship
between an aversive event (e.g., a hot day) and aggression is mediated by the negative effect generated
by these types of emotions (Quetelet [1842] 1969). There are several versions of TA theories. These dif-
fer mainly as to their views of the shape of the relationship between temperature and aggression. The
first is the negative effect escape (NAE) model developed by Baron (1978), Baron and Bell (1976), and
Bell (1992). These researchers concluded that negative effects (feelings of irritation, annoyance, or dis-
comfort) and violent acts increase as temperature increases up to a certain inflection point. On exceed-
ing this inflection point, the model predicts a decrease in violence as temperature increases because a
person’s escape motives (avoiding the heat) will override their aggressive motives.
In contrast, Anderson and Anderson (1998) developed the general affective aggression model
(GAM). This complex model takes many factors including temperature into account. This model asserts
that there are input factors, such as personal and situational variables, that determine a person’s arousal,
state of affect, and cognitions. Contrary to the NAE model, this model predicts a steady linear relation-
ship between temperature and violence with no inflection point (Rotton and Cohn 2000). Social Escape/
Avoidance (SEA) Theory is closely related to Routine Activity Theory and the NAE Model. It suggests
that people will attempt to avoid conditions that could lead to negative affect. Therefore, days with
extreme temperatures (both hot and cold) should lead to less social interaction, which leads to lesser
amounts of violent crime (Rotton and Cohn 2000). According to Cohn and Rotton, social escape and
avoidance (SEA) theory was developed in an attempt to integrate psychological theories of aggression,
such as the GAM and NAE models, with criminological models such as the RA theory.
Using the assumptions of the theories just discussed, studies around the world have evaluated
dynamics of crime opportunities. The first evidence is that crime will always display an uneven geo-
graphical distribution and that this variation is the result of the interrelationship between humans (or
groups of humans) and their surroundings. Shaw and McKay (1942), using Chicago as a case study,
observed that crime rates were unevenly distributed throughout the city in a nonrandom manner and
those communities closest to the city center were those with the highest rates of crime. These neighbor-
hoods were found to be areas in transition, with residents having low socioeconomic status, high num-
bers of ethnic and racial minorities, and high residential mobility (Wilcox, Land, and Hunt 2003).
Shaw and McKay (1942) concluded that the high levels of crime were not a function of the personal
attributes of the groups living in the neighborhoods, but rather argued that “the structural factors of
poverty, high heterogeneity, and high mobility created ‘social disorganization,’ and it was community-
level social disorganization that was presumed to cause crime” (Wilcox, Land, and Hunt 2003).
Agbola (1997) explored the impact of increasing urban violence in Nigerian cities in terms of
physical planning, urban design, and building construction practices. Among cases reviewed, the
incidence of burglary and other crimes such as armed robbery, loitering, street fighting, hooligan-
ism, prostitution, drug dealing, and gambling were found to be greater in the high-density resi-
dential areas and decreased through the medium- to low-density residential areas. The number
of victims of urban violence is greater in the high residential density areas. The highest propor-
tion of lives lost to urban violence is recorded in low-density residential areas. Similarly, Abo-
dunrin (2004) reported a similar pattern of crime distribution in Ogbomosho, Nigeria. The high-
density residential areas had the highest crime incidence. Furthermore, Badiora (2012) reported
high levels of burglary and house break-ins in the medium- and low-density residential areas,
whereas store break-ins were at the highest rate in traditional town centers, and drug offenses
were found to be predominant in the postcrisis residential area of Ile-Ife, Nigeria. Other geo-
graphic studies supported and further ascertained the spatial dynamics of crime within a town or
city (Ackerman 2000; Grubesic 2006; Weisburd, Morris, and Groff 2009; Tompson and Townsely
2010; Charron 2012; Badiora 2016). All these studies conclusively demonstrate that first, there
are notable geographical variations in the patterning of crime locations, and second, these varia-
tions differ in regard to type of crime.
Based on the principles of TA theory, earlier studies were only able to account for violent crime (see
Hipp et al. 2004). Nevertheless, recent researchers have found that seasonal variations exist for other
crime types (see Andresen and Malleson 2013) and that RA theory can account for these seasonal
dynamics. Earlier studies have consistently found statistically significant peaks for assault in the sum-
mer months (Michael and Zumpe 1983; Harries, Stadler, and Zdorkowski 1984; Cohn 1990). Research-
ers often attribute these trends to both heightened aggression levels, as a consequence of high
temperatures, and increased engagement in recreational activities outside of the home (Breetzke and
Cohn 2012; Uittenbogaard and Ceccato 2012). In essence, increased occurrence of criminal and subse-
quent victimization occurs when large groups of exasperated or aggressive people gather in specific pla-
ces during these times. With respect to sexual assault, some studies have found significant peaks for
rapes in the summer months (Michael and Zumpe 1983; Perry and Simpson 1987), whereas others
have not found statistically significant relationships between rape and higher temperatures (DeFronzo
1984). These inconsistencies are said to be due to offenders’ preferred selection of victim, whether
criminals choose to offend against strangers or acquaintances, and whether or not they assault the
same victims on multiple occasions (Leclerc et al. 2010; Maguire and Brookman 2009).
A number of results have provided further support for RA theory as well as evidence for the
existence of crime seasonality for property crimes. Hipp et al. (2004) found statistically significant
oscillations for property crimes. In addition, studies have found burglaries to peak during the
summer months (Cohn and Rotton 2000; McDowall, Loftin, and Pate 2012; Linning et al. 2015).
This could be attributed to the fact that in summertime, relaxation activities of people make
them to stay away from their homes, thus removing capable guardianship of their property. This
provides suitable target selection for motivated offenders (Chimbos 1973; Hamilton-Smith and
Kent 2009). Nonetheless, other research has indicated that residential burglary drops to its lowest
annual levels in the summer months and is instead at its highest in February and March (Farrell
and Pease 1994).
Whereas Cohn and Rotton (2000) found that robberies peaked, McDowall, Loftin, and Pate
(2012) found that all crimes except robbery peaked in the summer months. More explicitly,
McDowall, Loftin, and Pate (2012) observed that robberies were highest in December but were
also at a peak in the summer. Michael and Zumpe (1983) found that only five of their sixteen
U.S. locations had statistically significant trends for robbery and that they peaked in November
and December. Landau and Fridman (1993) found that in Israel, robberies peaked in the winter
months. They attributed these findings to monetary drives based on increased unemployment
and necessities. Besides, they explained that the cold weather present in winter months reduced
the number of people in the streets (i.e., capable guardians), thus increasing the suitability of
targets who were present. They also believed that shortened daylight hours put potential victims
at an increased likelihood of victimization (Landau and Fridman 1993). Some contradictory
results, however, have argued that the winter months provide increased opportunities due to
peak shopping times for the Christmas holidays (Andresen and Malleson 2013). Therefore, rob-
beries might also be largely attributed to the concentration of activity on the street (Loukaitou-
Sideris 1999).
From this literature review, it is evident that the typologies of crime in towns and cities are
diverse; the explanatory factors are complex and interrelated. It can be deduced that much of the
research on spatiality and seasonality of crime has not come to a firm consensus on the temporal
trends of various crime types. These facts from the literature thus provide the background infor-
mation for this study. Based on the preceding literature, there is still need for further research
on crime patterns. As such, this study seeks to explore the relationship between crime incidence
and weather conditions using residents’ perception data in the different residential neighborhoods
of Ibadan, Nigeria.
The study area

The study covered the Ibadan metropolitan area. Ibadan is located in the southwest of Nigeria (see
Figure 1). It is one of the Nigerian traditional urban centers whose urbanization predates colonialism.
Located approximately on latitude 7 220 and 7 400 north of the Equator and 3 530 and 4 100 east of the
Greenwich Meridian, Ibadan is largely populated by the Yoruba ethnic group. There is also a great
influx of migrants from other parts of the country such as the Hausas and Igbos, among others. Ibadan
also experiences influx of people from other countries. Ibadan’s people are well known for their toler-
ance and peaceful coexistence with other ethnicities and local and foreign immigrants. People with dif-
ferent ethnic backgrounds, race, varied levels of education, occupations, different socioeconomic
status, and different religious beliefs can be found in this city. Unlike other towns in Nigeria, Ibadan is
an accurate reflection of the cultural and ethnic diversity of the people of Nigeria. Furthermore, Ibadan
is by far the most urbanized area of its size in sub-Saharan Africa (NISER 1997).
Administratively, the city of Ibadan comprises eleven local government areas (LGAs) shared
between the metropolitan core of the city and the periurban or rural settlements (see Figure 1). The
Ibadan metropolis consists of five LGAs. These are also referred to as the urban LGAs: Ibadan North,
Ibadan North East, Ibadan North West, Ibadan South East, and Ibadan South West, with respective
headquarters at Bodija, Iwo Road, Onireke, Mapo, and Oluyole (see Figure 1). The peculiarity of these
five areas is that they come together at Mapo. The remaining six LGAs constitute the suburbs or peri-
urban LGAs: Akinyele, Egbeda, Ido, Lagelu, Oluyole, and Ona-Ara (see Figure 1). As the crow flies,
Ibadan is 128 km northeast of Lagos and 345 km southwest of Abuja. Spatially, Ibadan sprawls over a
radius of 12 to 15 km.
Over the years, several social, physical, and economic developments have sprung up in Ibadan
that have made the city a point of attraction for people, investment, and development locally
and internationally. The city became more accessible when the railway to the north reached Iba-
dan in 1901 and all road traffic from Lagos to the north converged in Ibadan. Thus, Ibadan
became a major center of bulk trade. Its central location and accessibility from the capital city of
Lagos were major considerations in the choice of Ibadan as the headquarters of the Western
Provinces (1939), which became the Western Region of Nigeria in 1952. This change involved a
substantial transfer of political power from the British to the nationals of the country. Thus the
process of ministerial appointments and the rapid expansion in the number of government work-
ers and buildings in the city began. The importance of Ibadan to the Nigerian economy was fur-
ther enhanced in 1948 by the founding of the University College, which later became the
University of Ibadan. Ibadan also had a well-equipped teaching hospital, which at the time was
the only one in the country. This brought about the concentration of qualified people and
increased purchasing power in the city and stimulated rapid growth in industrialization, com-
merce, and employment opportunities. As a major town in Nigeria, Ibadan is presently the capi-
tal city of Oyo State, as well as the largest urban center in Nigeria (see Figure 1).
There has been an incremental growth in the density and population of Ibadan. The city grew
from a population of 20,000 in 1890 to 175,000 in 1911, 238,075 in 1921, 459,196 in 1952, and
Figure 1. Map of Nigeria and Oyo State, indicating the five local government areas (LGAs) in the Ibadan metropolis. Source: Adelekan
et al. (2014).
1,783,962 in 1981 (Mabogunje 1968; Ayeni 1994) to 2,550,593 in 2006 (National Population Com-
mission 2006) and 3,298,907 in 2015 (Badiora 2016) With the rapid population growth and physi-
cal and political expansion, development possibilities as well as urban problems of various forms
and in varied complexities started. The national economic crisis and the decrease of public funds
radically changed the landscape of the city. A general decay of urban facilities (roads, railway,
water, and electricity supply) and of social services (education and health) affected Ibadan like
other Nigerian towns with several social consequences. One of these consequences is crime. With
the accelerating urbanization in Nigeria, urban crime has increasingly become one of the major
challenges facing Nigerian cities. Because Ibadan is rapidly becoming more and more urban and
industrialized, most of its traditional structures have been undermined. Consequently, crime types
recorded in the more industrialized Western societies are now characteristic of the city. Reported
criminal activities in Ibadan reveal that crimes in township vicinities are gradually becoming simi-
lar to those seen in Lagos and some Western cities like Chicago and New York. All these make the
study of crime and responses to crime as it relates to seasons and physical patterns of Ibadan
inevitable.
Weather conditions in Ibadan, Nigeria

Nigeria lies within the tropical zone and enjoys a truly tropical humid climate, which is dominated by
the West African monsoon system. Nigeria experiences two broad seasons, the wet and dry seasons.
The wet season starts from April through October and a dry season extends from November through
March. In the wet season, moisture-laden southeasterly winds from the Atlantic bring cloudy and rainy
weather, whereas in the dry season, the dry northeasterly wind from the Sahara (harmattan) brings
dusty and fair weather. The prevalence of these alternating winds over the country is linked to the
movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) north and south of the equator. There are,
however, wide variations in climate in different regions of the country, with topographic relief being a
major factor. Seasonal mean temperatures throughout Nigeria are consistently over 20 C with diurnal
variations more pronounced than seasonal ones. In general, temperatures are lower in the wet season
than in the dry season, and they vary little from the coast to inland areas. The wettest month in Nigeria
is June in the south and the wettest area is the east coast, parts of which receive more than 4,000 mm of
rainfall annually. Regions along the coast in southern Nigeria receive about 1,800 mm rainfall annually,
which decreases to about 500 to 1,000 mm in northern Nigeria (Nigerian Meteorological Agency 2016).
Ibadan has an estimated land area of 500 km2, with an estimated mean annual rainfall of over
2,000 mm and average temperature of 26 C (Nigerian Meteorological Agency 2016). Ibadan experien-
ces two major seasons per year: rainy (wet) and dry seasons. First, the long rainy season starts in March
and lasts until the end of July, with a peak period in June. Second, there is a short dry season in August
for three to four weeks. The real dry period, though, known as August break, is generally observed dur-
ing the last two weeks of August. Third is the short rainy season (the ending of the rainy season), which
is the brief wet period that follows the August break from early September to mid-October, with a peak
period at the end of September. Fourth is the long dry season, which starts in late October and lasts
until early March, with peak dry conditions between early December and late February. This period
witnesses the prevailing influences of the dry and dusty northeast winds, as well as the harmattan con-
ditions. Vegetation growth is generally hampered, grasses dry, and leaves fall from deciduous trees due
to reduced moisture.
Spatial pattern of residential neighborhoods in Ibadan

The work of Onibokun and Kumuyi (2004) shows that Ibadan can be classified into seven morphologi-
cal regions based on housing and population densities, types and levels of infrastructure, and environ-
mental and sanitary characteristics. These are the core, the older suburban, the newer eastern
suburban, the newer western suburban, the post-1956 suburban, the government reservation areas
(GRAs), and the government and privately owned planned residential areas. Onibokun and Kumuyi
(2004) submitted that the combination of these regions revealed three contrasting zones linked to three
historical periods: the precolonial development, the zone between precolonial and postindependence
residential development, and the postindependence development. These zones are associated with the
core, the transition, and the suburban (Onibokun and Kumuyi 2004).
Each of these zones is observed to be internally homogeneous in terms of physical layout, socioeco-
nomic status, and environmental amenities available, among other features (see Figure 2). These subdi-
visions had been observed by previous studies to be the characteristics of Nigerian towns and cities.
Towns and cities in Nigeria where these zones are identifiable include, among others, Benin City (Ono-
kerhoraye 1978), Ilorin (Akorede 1974), Lagos (Agbola 1997; Oduwaye 2013), Ogbomosho (Afon
2005), and Ile-Ife (Badiora 2012). In addition to these are newly developed GRAs, and the government
and privately owned planned residential areas. These zones, newly developed GRAs and the govern-
ment and privately owned planned residential areas are associated with low-, medium-, and high-den-
sity/quality residential areas.
Figure 2. Map of Ibadan metropolis indicating the spatial structure.

Low-quality or high-density residential areas are usually located in the central area of precolonial
neighborhoods. These areas are often occupied by the first group of immigrants, usually with a density
of more than 300 persons per hectare (Coker et al. 2007). Such districts are found in Yemetu, Oke
Aremo, Oje, Itu Taba Agbeni/Agbaje, Idikan, and Abebi in Ibadan. Others include Foko, Gege, Bode,
Popoyemoja, Elekuro, Odinjo, Idi Arere, Ode Aje, Beyerunka, and Ita Bale Labo (see Figure 2). The
most distinguished physical features of these areas are that they are largely unplanned, lacking good
access roads. Building and population densities in these areas are very high with over 50 percent of
plots built up (Oduwaye 2013). The houses in this zone are closely built together and connected to one
another with footpaths. The local streets inside the area have a nondistributed structure with few possi-
bilities for through traffic. This means a majority of the buildings lack accessibility to road infrastruc-
ture. Houses in this zone are mainly traditional, made from indigenous materials. Residents engage in
primary and traditional occupations such as farming and petty trading activities. Most of the areas
in this place did not enjoy modern physical planning regulations. The physical environment is low in
standard as depicted in housing construction techniques and materials as well as layout and the facili-
ties available. These areas are therefore predominantly of high-density population and high plot cover-
age; a majority of the people here belong to the low-income groups.
Medium-quality or medium-density residential areas were usually planned and laid out after estab-
lishment of British rule. They were developed to satisfy the need of the middle-income households in
the formal sector. Medium-density residential districts usually have a population density of 100 to 300
persons per hectare (Coker et al. 2007; Efe and Eyefia 2014). Such districts are found in Ibadan at
Mokola, Total Garden, Iwo Road, Basorun, Challenge, and parts of Yejide. Others include Odo-Ona,
Oke-Bola, and Eleyele (see Figure 2). Dominant housing types here are bungalows and semidetached
two-story buildings of concrete block wall with comparatively low population density. The most
important physical feature is that these new areas were developed through a planning scheme. They
can therefore be referred to as areas with a layout or developmental plan and modern-day planning
regulations. The local streets inside the area have a distributed structure with few possibilities for
through traffic. Status and ethnic compositions are mixed, as this area is being occupied majorly by
indigenes and nonindigenes employed in the formal sector of the town. Building density in these areas
is moderate, so they are classified as medium-density areas.
High-quality or low-density residential areas are high-quality districts that are usually well laid out.
They are not common in the old growing precolonial towns, except those that were once provisional
headquarters. Low-density residential districts with fewer than 100 persons per hectare (Coker 2007;
Efe and Eyefia 2014) encompass such wards as New Bodija, Agodi, part of Felele, Oluyole Estate, and
Onireke GRA, which are high-grade, low-density residential areas in Ibadan (see Figure 2). These areas
were developed through a well-designed layout plan. The ethnic composition is heterogeneous and so
are the building types. The majority of residents in this area are engaged in white-collar jobs such as
professionals, businessmen, and top civil service and government functionaries. The supply of urban
environmental services is favorably biased toward this area. It high-quality landscape architecture and
a street layout with planned distributed structure and possibilities for through traffic. It features house
types such as flats and duplexes. In general, it is a quiet residential area. The area consists of row
houses, some with a small front garden, and most of the homes have a small, private open space. Fur-
thermore, various facilities can be found in these areas. There is a local supermarket and variety shop.
Moreover, snack bars, restaurants, hairdressing salons, meat shops, travel agencies, medical services,
hotels, garages, and several other services are scattered around in the area.
Methods and data

This study used data from residents’ perception of crime occurrence in different residential neighbor-
hoods and during different seasons of the year. Data were obtained through the stratification of Ibadan
into high-, medium-, and low-density areas to reveal the relationship between seasonal levels and spa-
tial pattern of crime in the different residential neighborhoods. Investigation revealed that there were
142, 291, and 109 streets in the high-, medium-, and low-density areas, respectively, in Ibadan
metropolis. One of every five streets (20 percent) in each residential area was selected using systematic
sampling. Hence, a total of 108 streets were selected. There were 1,424, 1,747, and 651 buildings in the
high-, medium-, and low-density areas, respectively. Every tenth building (10 percent) was selected
using systematic sampling after the first building was chosen randomly. A questionnaire was adminis-
tered to a household head on each floor of the selected buildings. A total of 491 copies of the question-
naire were administered, and 321 were retrieved (approximately 65 percent) and analyzed.
Information elicited included socioeconomic characteristics and residents’ perception of crime inciden-
ces. The use of perception survey findings in this study is typical because of the unavailability of up-to-
date and accurate official crime statistics.
To determine rate of crime occurrence in Ibadan, Nigeria, residents were provided with a list of
crime identified in the literature. They were further instructed to indicate the rate of occurrence of
each of the identified crime type. Residents were to express their opinion using a Likert scale with
responses of 5 (very frequent), 4 (frequent), 3 (just frequent), 2 (not frequent), and 1 (not at all frequent)
in occurrence. The analyses of the ratings indicated by the residents from the Likert scales evolved into
an index called the mean. The index for each type of crime was arrived at by dividing the summation
of rating value (SRV) by the total number of responses. The SRV for each type was obtained through
the addition of the product of the number of responses to each type and the respective weight value
attached to each rating. This is mathematically expressed as:
X5
SRV D xy
iD1 i i
(1)
where xi is the number of respondents to rating i; yi is the weight assigned to a value (i D 1, 2, 3, 4, 5).
The index for each identified crime type thus takes a value of between 5 and 1. The nearer the value to
5, the higher is the occurrence that residents attached to such crime type under consideration.
SRV
CRI D X5 (2)
x
1 i
where CRI is the crime rate index.

Data obtained for the independent variables consisted of socioeconomic attributes of residents in
the study area. For data analysis, frequency tabulation, chi-square tests, and analysis of variance
(ANOVA) were used to examine socioeconomic variables in relation to the spatial pattern in the study
area. The ANOVA was used to determine significant variations in continuous data such as age and
average monthly income, whereas chi-square tests were used for the categorical data such as house
type, occupation, and highest level of education attained. Findings are discussed in the next section.
To identify seasonal and spatial factors in crime opportunities in Ibadan, multinomial logistic
regression (MLR) was used. The MLR model is a simple extension of the binomial logistic regression
model and multiple regressions. This technique was developed as a result of the nature of binomial
logistic and multiple regression models, which depends on strict statistical assumptions such as nor-
mality of independent variables, linearity of relationships, multicollinearity among independent varia-
bles, and equal dispersion matrices for discriminant analysis. Introduction of MLR was an alternative
regression analysis to cater for conditions that do not necessarily obey the assumptions just listed, with
the exception of multicollinearity (Hosmer and Lemeshow 2000). The statistics exist to handle the case
when the independent variables are a mixture of continuous and categorical (Tabachnick, Fidell, and
Osterlind 2001; Hedeker 2014).
According to Tabachnick, Fidell, and Osterlind (2001), the MLR technique has number of major
advantages. First, it is more robust to violations of assumptions of multivariate normality and equal
variance–covariance matrices across groups; second, it is similar to linear regression, but provides
more easily interpretable statistics. Furthermore, and most important, MLR does assume a linear rela-
tionship between the dependent and independent variables. In MLR, independent variables need not
be intervals, the independents need not be unbounded, and normally distributed error terms are not
assumed.
MLR is used in this study to estimate the probability that each of the identified crime types
will occur under the effects of weather condition and spatial characteristics of residential districts
in Ibadan. In this regard, each of the identified crime types was selected as the dependent vari-
able: assaults (including grievous wounding and sexual harassment), break-ins (commercial nd
residential), and robberies (armed and unarmed). These aspects of crime are selected because
they are the three most frequently occurring crimes in the Ibadan metropolitan area of based on
residents’ perceptions. Five sets of variables were selected to be the predictors of these crime
types; that is, the independent variable: weather conditions (seasonal variables), residential zones
and densities (spatial variable), income, type of house occupied, and occupation (residents’ socio-
economic attributes).
There were twenty-five categories in total from these sets of predictors. Three categories of variables
were derived from weather condition: rain (cold), dry (hot), and moderate seasons; three categories of
variables were derived from residential zone and densities: high, medium, and low; and occupation
produced five: civil service, trading, farming, artisans, and professional practice. Similarly, type of
house occupied was categorized into five groups: bungalow, duplex, room’s apartment, flat, and others.
Income was grouped into four categories: below poverty line, low-income, medium-income, and high-
income groups. The building use was separated into four cateogries: residential, commercial, educa-
tional, and recreational.
Four major statistics relevant from the regression model were used to show the dynamics of crime
opportunities in Ibadan. First is the Model2 (–2log-likelihood), which measures the degree of linearity
(relationship) between the dependent variable and the set of predictors. It is a test of the overall model.
A well-fitting model is significant at the 0.05 level or better. It is a test confirming that the sets of inde-
pendent variables are appropriate to explain the dependent variable. Second is the odds ratio, denoted
as Exp(b). This is a measure of the effect of each category of the independent variable’s size, except the
reference category. Third is the reference category (r), which usually has an odds ratio of 1. In this way,
it is the basis of comparison with the odds ratios of other categories in the independent variable. In
this study, the reference category is the last for each independent variable because this is the norm of
the statistical package used (SPSS) in the analysis.
The confidence interval of the odds ratios is the fourth component of the MLR used in this study.
SPSS usually prints low and high confidence levels at the 95 percent confidence interval. When the 95
percent confidence interval around the odds ratios includes the value of 1, indicating that a change in
value of the independent variable is not associated with a change in the odds of the dependent variable,
then the category of the independent variable is not considered a useful predictor in the logistic model.
In other words, no statistically significant effect existed. Findings are discussed in the sections that fol-
low. Unless where otherwise stated, tables presented in this study are the outcomes of the authors’ field
survey conducted in the last quarter of 2015.
Findings
From the ranking of the crimes generated from residents’ perception, the three most frequently
occurring crimes in Ibadan were assaults, break-ins, and robberies. Their indexes were 3.20, 3.09,
and 3.06, respectively. Other important crimes were stealing and pilfering, unlawful possession,
breach of public peace, and vehicle theft. The CRI values for these crimes were 3.04, 2.91, 2.82,
and 2.81, respectively. It was revealed through the findings that not all categories of crime inves-
tigated were important in Ibadan. Some crime types were peculiar to certain residential densities
(high, medium, and low densities), however. For instance, whereas crimes against a person (e.g.,
assaults) were problems in the high-density area of Ibadan, property-related crimes (break-ins)
were problems in the medium- and low-density areas (see Appendix for more details on resi-
dents’ perception of crime incidence in Ibadan). This variation could be in connection with vary-
ing socioeconomic attributes of the respondents in Ibadan.
Table 1. Socioeconomic distribution of respondents in Ibadan.
Spatial pattern of residential neighborhoods
Variable High density Medium density Low density Ibadan
Income
Below poverty line 26 25 00 51
(21.7) (16.8) (0.0) (15.9)
Low income 69 31 07 107
(57.5) (20.8) (13.4) (33.3)
Middle income 20 74 16 110
(16.6) (49.6) (30.7) (34.3)
High income 05 19 29 53
(4.2) (12.8) (55.8) (16.5)
Total 120 149 52 321
(100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)
House type
Bungalow 61 51 12 124
(50.0) (34.2) (23.1) (38.4)
Duplex 3 13 15 31
(2.5) (8.7) (28.8) (9.6)
Rooms apartment 50 27 3 80
(41.0) (18.1) (5.8) (24.8)
Flat 7 57 22 86
(5.7) (38.3) (42.3) (26.6)
Others 1 1 00 2
(0.8) (0.7) (0.0) (0.6)
Total 120 149 52 321
(100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)
Occupation
Civil servant 15 60 22 97
(12.3) (40.3) (42.3) (30.0)
Trading 29 35 15 79
(23.8) (23.5) (28.8) (24.5)
Farming 22 10 2 34
(18.0) (6.7) (3.8) (10.5)
Artisans 53 35 4 92
(43.4) (23.5) (7.7) (28.5)
Professional practice 3 9 9 21
(2.5) (6.0) (17.3) (6.5)
Total 120 149 52 321
(100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)
Use of buildings
Residential 63 89 43 195
(51.6) (59.7) (82.7) (60.4)
Commercial 43 41 4 88
(35.2) (27.5) (7.7) (27.2)
Educational 9 10 2 21
(7.4) (6.7) (3.8) (6.5)
Recreational 7 9 3 19
(5.7) (6.0) (5.8) (5.9)
Total 120 149 52 321
(100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)
Note: Income was grouped using the Nigerian civil service income grade level as follows: below poverty line/the national minimum
wage (< N18,000), low-income group (Grade Level 01 to 06 or N18,000–N60,000), middle-income group (Grade Level 07 to 12 or
N61,000–N150,000), and high-income group (Grade Level 13 to 17 or above N150,000). US$1 D N489.
Presented in Table 1 are the socioeconomic characteristics of respondents. Findings showed that the
average monthly income of respondents was N66,900. The average monthly income in the high-,
medium-, and low-density areas was N44,400, N63,100, and N98,500, respectively. Findings showed
that 15.9 percent of the respondents were living below the poverty line by earning less than N18,000
monthly (below the national minimum wage). Whereas 57.5 percent of the residents in the high-den-
sity area were low-income earners, the proportion of residents in this group was 20.8 percent in the
medium-density area and 13.4 percent in the low-density area. Findings showed that income status
varies inversely with the residential densities. In other words, respondents’ income increased as dis-
tance increased from the high- to low-density areas. The result of the ANOVA, F D 56.701 (p D
0.000), confirmed that differences in the monthly income of residents in the different areas of residen-
tial density of Ibadan were significant.
Findings showed that bungalows were concentrated in the high-density areas (50.0 percent of
all the house types in these areas), whereas the most important house type in the medium-den-
sity neighborhoods was the flat (38.3 percent). The proportion of residents living in flats was
42.3 percent in the low-density residential area. Furthermore, findings showed that 2.5 percent,
8.7 percent, and 28.8 percent of residents in the types of neighborhoods of Ibadan live in
duplexes. Whereas the proportion of residents residing in bungalows varied inversely with resi-
dential densities, the proportions of residents residing in duplexes varied directly with residential
densities in Ibadan. This pattern of house type is a reflection of income distribution, as discussed
earlier. Whereas the low-cost house types (e.g., bungalows and apartments) clustered in the high-
density areas where low-income earners were concentrated, the high-cost house types (e.g.,
duplexes) were concentrated in low-density residential areas where high-income group earners
lived. Differences in the house types were found to be statistically significant. The results of the
chi-square test (x2 D 90.762, p D 0.000) confirmed this.
Civil service, artisanship, and trading accounted for 30.0 percent, 28.5 percent, and 24.5 percent,
respectively, of the residents’ occupations (see Table 1). The artisans were concentrated in the high-
density areas (43.4 percent of all occupants), whereas the most important occupation of the residents
in the medium-density areas was in civil service (40.3 percent). Similarly, civil service accounted was
the most important occupation in the low-density residential area, at 42.3 percent. Findings further
showed that 2.5 percent, 6.0 percent, and 17.3 percent of residents in the neighborhoods of Ibadan,
respectively, engaged in professional practices. Included in this occupational class are legal, medical,
security, technology, construction, and engineering professionals in private practice. Residents who
were artisans were on the decrease as distance increased from high-density to low-density residential
areas. This was because the proportion of residents who were civil servants or professionals was on the
increase from the high-density toward the low-density residential areas. Differences in occupation
within the city were statistically significant. The chi-square test (x2 D 63.110, p D 0.000) confirmed
this assertion.
Of the total buildings surveyed, the proportion used for residential purposes was 60.4 percent. This
made it the most important use of buildings in Ibadan. Findings showed that the most important use
of buildings in the high-density neighborhoods of Ibadan was residential, accounting for 51.6 percent.
This use also accounted for 59.7 percent and 82.7 percent of the buildings in the medium- and low-
density areas. The use of buildings for commercial purposes accounted for 35.2 percent of the buildings
in the high-density areas, 27.5 percent in the medium-density areas, and 7.7 percent in the low-density
areas. Residential use of buildings varied inversely with increase in distance from high to low densities.
On the other hand, commercial use of buildings varied inversely with that of the residential land use.
Differences in the use of the building were found to be statistically significant. The chi-square test com-
puted (x2 D 16.739, p D 0.010) confirmed this.
Presented in Table 2 is the summary of the MLR model of perceived crime opportunities in Ibadan.
Based on the Model2 (–2log-likelihood), crime incidences can be categorized into two. The first set are
those with significant Model2 (–2log-likelihood) at the 0.05 level. These are crime incidences for which
the identified predictors were appropriate in explaining their opportunities. In other words, there is a
linear relationship between the perceived crime types (dependent variables) and predictors or indepen-
dent variable. Break-ins (commercial and residential) were in this category. This is with a –2log-likeli-
hood chi-square value of 78.46 (significant at 0.05).
The second category is made up of those with Model2 (–2log-likelihood) that are not significant.
These are perceived crime incidences for which the identified predictors were not totally appropriate
in explaining their opportunities. Two crime incidences were in this category: assaults and robberies.
Nonetheless, it was revealed that certain categories of the independent variables are strong explanatory
predictors of perceived assaults and robberies in the study area. Findings revealed that two categories
Table 2. Multinomial logistic regression model of crime opportunities in Ibadan.
Assaults Break-ins Robberies

95% confidence 95% confidence 95% confidence
interval for Exp(b) interval for Exp(b) interval for Exp(b)
Parameters N Exp(b) Lower Upper N Exp(b) Lower Upper N Exp(b) Lower Upper
Residential densities
High 58 0.55* 4.11 9.01 15 2.55 0.11 3.01 78 1.89** 1.11 4.91
Low 32 0.80 3.21 8.46 18 4.80** 0.21 4.46 42 0.66 1.21 3.46
Medium (r) 10 1.00 — — 20 1.00 — — 24 1.00 — —
Type of house occupied
Bungalow 22 0.17 0.61 2.11 11 0.71* 1.61 2.11 21 0.31 0.61 2.91
Duplex 12 0.65 0.45 1.23 8 2.11 1.45 7.23 78 1.41 0.45 1.44
Rooms apartment 33 2.33 0.11 2.45 10 7.11* 3.11 6.45 29 5.12 0.82 2.22
Flat 10 0.29 0.21 3.56 12 0.21 1.21 3.56 51 0.21** 1.56 2.06
Others (r) 12 1.00 — — 11 1.00 — — 31 1.00 — —
Weather condition
Rainy season 22 1.41 0.44 3.46 8 3.21 0.94 3.46 13 0.44** 1.34 3.48
Dry season 13 0.91* 1.45 2.46 10 4.01** 1.21 2.46 20 0.01 0.46 1.66
Moderate (r) 8 1.00 — — 6 1.00 — — 43 1.00 — —
Occupation
Civil servant 13 0.77 0.44 3.46 12 4.11 0.21 7.46 45 0.77* 1.94 3.56
Trading 28 1.67** 1.35 6.16 10 0.80** 1.56 5.99 23 1.67 0.67 3.16
Professional practice 22 0.43 0.34 4.67 8 3.11 0.77 8.41 21 0.43* 1.59 3.67
Artisanship 21 0.56** 1.22 2.11 6 0.47 0.42 6.01 31 0.56 0.66 3.11
Farming (r) 11 1.00 — — 11 1.00 — — 53 1.00 — —
Income group
High 33 3.41 0.22 7.11 10 0.86** 0.22 6.11 20 0.76** 1.22 4.67
Medium 21 1.34 0.23 5.21 12 1.56 0.99 4.21 22 0.56 1.99 3.34
Low 15 0.65** 0.19 4.01 11 2.67 1.59 4.01 41 0.67 0.59 3.62
Below poverty line (r) 10 1.00 — — 8 1.00 — — 73 1.00 — —
Dominant use of building
Residential 23 0.81 0.34 5.33 12 3.23** 1.66 3.43 42 0.89** 1.86 2.33
Commercial 18 3.76* 1.46 4.21 15 0.96** 1.87 5.11 51 1.76** 1.77 3.11
Educational 12 0.53 0.33 3.25 8 2.11** 1.43 5.01 34 0.59 0.72 1.67
Recreational (r) 12 1.00 — — 6 1.00 — — 23 1.00 — —
Model2 (–2log-likelihood) 23.45 78.46* 46.11

Significant at 0.05.

Significant at 0.01.
of the residents’ occupations (artisanship and trading) were good explanatory variables of assaults at
0.01. The lower limit of the 95 percent confidence interval for the odds ratio of each category was above
1. This indicates that assaults occurred more among artisans and traders when compared with other
occupation types. Findings further revealed that assaults occurred more in the high-density residential
areas than in other residential areas.
Similarly, findings from residents’ perception showed that assaults occurred more during the dry
season than in the rainy seasons. That the odd ratios are significant at 0.05 and the lower limit of the
95 percent confidence interval was above 1 confirmed this. Furthermore, findings showed that low-
income earners experienced assaults more than those in other income groups. This was statistically sig-
nificant at 0.01. Furthermore, the lower limit of the 95 percent confidence interval for Exp(b) was not
below 1. It was revealed through the findings that a significant number of assaults occurred in commer-
cial buildings. This was statistically significant at 0.01.
Buildings occupied by traders, businessmen, and high-income earners were perceived to experience
more break-ins than the others. That the odd ratios are significant at 0.05 and the lower limit of the 95
percent confidence interval is above 1 confirmed this. It was also observed that bungalows and apart-
ment buildings were usually burglarized more often than the others. The odd ratios are significant at
0.01 and the lower limit of the 95 percent confidence interval above 1 confirmed this. Similarly, find-
ings showed that break-ins were perceived to occur more during the dry season than the rainy season.
Break-ins were also perceived to happen more in low-density neighborhoods than other residential
neighborhoods. These were statistically significant at 0.01 and the lower limit of the 95 percent confi-
dence interval for Exp(b) was not below 1. Findings revealed that all categories of building use were
good explanatory variables of break-in rate at 0.05. The lower limit of the 95 percent confidence inter-
val for the odds ratio of each type of occupation category was above 1.
Robberies were perceived to happen more in the high-density neighborhood than in the medium-
and low-density residential areas. It was also evident that more robberies are experienced by the resi-
dents of Ibadan during the rainy seasons than during the dry seasons. These were significant at 0.01.
The lower limit of the 95 percent confidence interval for the odds ratio of each of this predictors’ cate-
gory was above 1. Findings revealed that two categories of the residents’ occupation (civil service and
professional practice) were good explanatory variables of robberies at 0.01. The lower limit of the 95
percent confidence interval for the odds ratio of each type of occupation category was above 1. This
indicates that robbers target civil servants and professional consultants more than residents in other
occupations. Findings further revealed that high-income earners experience more robberies than any
other income groups. The lower limit of the 95 percent confidence interval for the odds ratio was above
1. This was significant at 0.01. Findings revealed that two categories of building use (residential and
commercial) were good explanatory variables of assaults at 0.05. This indicates that robberies occurred
more in residential and commercial buildings when compared with other types of buildings.
Discussion
This study focuses on possible crime opportunities that might surface as a result of weather condition
and spatial distribution of residential neighborhoods. There are observable crime patterns for assaults,
break-ins, and robberies. The results of the study support seasonal and spatial effects for crime inciden-
ces as predicted by RA, TA, and SD theories. Findings are also consistent with previous research that
has found clear seasonal and spatial trends in crime occurrence (Tellez et al. 2006; Hird and Ruparel
2007; Breetzke and Cohn 2012; Uittenbogaard and Ceccato 2012; Shannon et al. 2016).
Findings showed that artisans and traders are more likely to experience most of the assaults in the
study area. Likewise, low-income earners are more likely to be assaulted than those in other income
groups. It was also revealed that buildings occupied by traders, businessmen, and high-income earners
are burgled more often. Findings showed that muggers target civil servants and professional consul-
tants, whereas high-income earners experience more robberies than those in any other income groups.
These findings, at least in a Nigerian context, suggest that people from varying socioeconomic groups
are not equally prone to the same level of crime surge. The results presented here are generally in
accord with the prevailing global evidence. For instance, according to the 2009 General Social Survey
in Canada, young people between fifteen and twenty-four years old experienced the highest rates of
violent and property crimes. The survey also found that rates of personal victimization were highest
among those living in households with low incomes (below $30,000 annually). With respect to certain
property crimes such as break-ins, studies have shown that rates of victimization are greater for house-
holds with higher incomes (Sacco and Kennedy 2002). Other studies suggesting that crime is influ-
enced and compounded by a wide range of socioeconomic characteristics include work by
Brantingham and Brantingham (2003), Phillip (2008), Adigun (2012), and Badiora (2012).
Findings show that assaults and robberies were significant in the high-density residential areas and
decreased with increasing distance from this area. The result was the reverse for break-ins, as it was
highest in the low-density areas and decreased as one moves away from this area. These findings show
that there are observable spatial patterns for assaults, break-ins, and robberies in Ibadan, Nigeria. Adi-
gun (2012) also found that crime in Ibadan is concentrated in the high-density core of the city and
decreases toward the outer parts of the city. This finding supports Shaw and McKay’s (1942) SD theory,
which observed that crime rates were unevenly distributed throughout the city in a nonrandom man-
ner and those communities closest to the city center were those with the highest rates. These neighbor-
hoods were found to be areas in transition, having low socioeconomic status, high numbers of ethnic
and racial minorities, and high residential density capacities. Findings in this study are also in agree-
ment with many studies that have found crime to be spatially distributed; it does not spread randomly,
but tends to concentrate in particular places, which has been empirically supported by adequate
research (Adigun 2012; Badiora 2012).
Findings showed that the levels of assaults and break-ins were highest during the dry seasons (hot
weather conditions). A number of factors could account for this seasonal trend, with the most obvious
being the increase in temperature during the long dry season months in Nigeria. According to RA the-
ory, individuals are at a higher risk of personal victimization when they are outdoors than when they
are at home (Cohen and Felson 1979; Rotton and Cohn 2004). On a hot dry season day in Nigeria, peo-
ple are more likely to be outdoors for recreational activities (Dibiagu, Kure, and Haruna 2003; Idachaba
2004), thus might likely spend more time among strangers. This increases the likelihood that victims
and offenders will come into contact with each other in a situation in which capable guidance is not
present, thus facilitating assault. Similarly, TA theory states that higher temperatures in the long dry
season will lead to increased frustration and consequent aggressive behavior. The fact that aggressive
crimes (assaults) increase in hot weather conditions is certainly not new (Breetzke and Cohn 2012;
Uittenbogaard and Ceccato 2012). The results presented here, however, meaningfully extend and con-
firm the earlier works on this topic, particularly in the Nigerian context.
In the case of break-ins, it should be noted that changing weather conditions can play an important
role in changing the routine activities of individuals (particularly discretionary schedules) and can affect
the likelihood of the convergence of motivated offender, suitable target, and the absence of a capable
guardian against criminal behavior. For instance, when the weather conditions are hotter in Nigeria, resi-
dents are more likely to embark on journeys to public recreational places (Ojo 1978). Consequently,
homes are left without capable guardians because their occupants are outdoors. This make homes more
suitable targets. Felson and Clarke (1998), using this thinking and a variety of data, concluded that the
RA approach still offers the best explanation for a rise in criminal activities. The risk of personal and
property victimization rises as people spend more time among strangers and away from their own homes.
Unlike assaults and break-ins, robberies were perceived to be most frequent during the rainy sea-
sons. There could be many explanations for this. First, the results of the study support a seasonal effect
as predicted by RA ideas. On a cold rainy season day in Nigeria, people are more likely to be indoors.
The very few people on the streets increase the likelihood that victims and offenders will come into
contact with each other in a situation I which capable guidance is not present, thus facilitating robbery.
The results supported te work of Landau and Fridman (1993), who explained that the colder weather
limited capable guardians as a result of decrease in the number of people in the streets. Second, it has
been established that there is always an increase in cost of living in cold months and an increased rate
of unemployment due to a drop in seasonal jobs such as construction, transportation, and recreation,
among others (Cohn 1990; Landau and Fridman 1993). The need to meet needs and acquire extra
goods to survive might motivate individuals (particularly unemployed people) to engage in robbery.
The results supported the work of Cohn (1990) and Landau and Fridman (1993), who found that rob-
beries usually peaked in the cold months and attributed these findings to poverty based on increased
unemployment and necessities.
To this end, the analytical results of this study demonstrate that crime will always display an uneven
geographical distribution and neighborhood socioeconomic environment. Land use characteristics are
especially effective in accounting for the spatial variation in the distribution of violent crimes across
the city of Ibadan. The fact that crimes vary with neighborhood socioeconomic and environment con-
ditions is certainly not new. The results presented here, however, meaningfully extend and confirm the
earlier work on this topic.
Conclusion
This research presents an exploratory analysis of the spatial patterns of crime in Ibadan, Nigeria, as
well as its relationships with contextual socioeconomic characteristics and weather conditions of the
city’s neighborhoods. In Ibadan, as in many cities, assaults tend to be significantly higher in high-den-
sity areas, as compared with the city’s low-density areas. This is likely because the clustering of lively
economic activities and population makes suitable targets; motivated offenders and the lack of capable
guardians readily converge in space, leading to higher risk of assault, primarily in high-density residen-
tial areas. Analyses further reveal that spatial variations in the risk of crime are socially and economi-
cally structured. In other words, population characteristics related to SD features are essential to
understand the risk of crimes in Nigerian cities. As is typical in previous studies around the world, our
analysis with measures from various theories and approaches proves that the crime profile of an urban
neighborhood is indeed influenced by sets of characteristics suggested by RA theory, SD, and TA.
These factors work together in shaping the spatial pattern of crimes in Nigerian cities. The fact that we
find support for these theories in Nigerian cities provides further evidence of their generalizability. The
study therefore suggests that enhanced social control and social organizations, associated with better
residential conditions, as well as favorable climates, help lower the risk of crime in safeguarded urban
areas.
The study, however, is not without limitations. Although this study has used survey data to inves-
tigate the effects of weather conditions on crime rates, there is a call for further studies where per-
ceived crime can be compared with police-reported crime data. Furthermore, compared to other
data gathering tools, and depending on the methodological approach, perception surveys could dem-
onstrate some important limitations, such as false information and people’s understanding of the
state of crime and biases, among others. All these will be minimized if police-reported crime data
are used.
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20
Appendix Perceived rate of crime occurrence in different residential density of Ibadan.
High density Medium density Low density Ibadan
Crime type CRI Crime type CRI Crime type CRI Crime type CRI
Assaults 3.06 Break-ins 3.17 Break-ins 3.71 Assaults 3.20

Break-ins 3.05 Robbery 3.05 Assaults 3.33 Break-ins 3.09
Stealing and pilfering 3.02 Assaults 3.01 Robberies 3.29 Robberies 3.06
Robberies 3.02 Stealing and pilfering 3.00 Pick pocketing 3.21 Stealing and pilfering 3.04
A. O. AFON AND A. I. BADIORA
Drug offenses 2.89 Breach of public peace 2.87 Stealing and pilfering 3.19 Unlawful possession 2.91
Pick-pocketing 2.80 Pick pocketing 2.84 Unlawful possession 2.96 Breach of public peace 2.82
Vehicle theft 2.80 Vehicle theft 2.81 Receiving stolen property 2.88 Vehicle theft 2.81
Unlawful possession 2.78 Unlawful possession 2.77 Breach of public peace 2.83 Pick pocketing 2.79
Breach of public peace 2.78 Drug offenses 2.77 Vehicle theft 2.83 Drug offenses 2.79
Receiving stolen property 2.73 Receiving stolen property 2.73 Child abandonment 2.62 Receiving stolen property 2.76
Child abandonment 2.63 Child abandonment 2.58 Drug offenses 2.56 Child abandonment 2.61
Sexual harassment 2.25 Sexual harassment 2.23 Vehicle hijacking/snatching 2.19 Sexual harassment 2.22
Grievous harm/wounding 2.24 Grievous harm/wounding 2.19 Grievous harm/wounding 2.15 Grievous harm/wounding 2.20
Attempted rape 2.18 Child stealing 2.14 Sexual harassment 2.13 Child stealing 2.12
Child stealing 2.18 Attempted rape 2.12 Cultism and related harms 2.12 Vehicle hijacking 2.11
Vehicle hijacking 2.10 Vehicle hijacking/snatching 2.09 Child stealing 2.12 Attempted rape 2.09
Cultism and related harms 2.06 Cultism and related harms 2.03 Burglary (store/shops) 1.94 Cultism and related harms 2.06
False pretenses/cheating 1.93 Child stealing 1.97 Child stealing 1.90 Child stealing 1.97
Child stealing 1.90 False pretenses/cheating 1.89 Attempted rape 1.79 False pretenses/cheating 1.86
Rape 1.84 Rape 1.85 Rape 1.77 Rape 1.83
Burglary (store/shops) 1.76 Burglary (store/shops) 1.81 Internet scam 1.69 Burglary (store/shops) 1.81
Kidnapping/abduction 1.71 Kidnapping/abduction 1.71 False pretenses/cheating 1.60 Kidnapping/abduction 1.69
Manslaughter 1.48 Manslaughter 1.50 Kidnapping/abduction 1.58 Internet scam/cybercrime 1.51
Murder 1.47 Internet scam/cybercrime 1.48 Manslaughter 1.56 Manslaughter 1.50
Internet scam 1.46 Murder 1.47 Attempted murder 1.56 Murder 1.47
Attempted murder 1.45 Attempted murder 1.44 Murder 1.48 Attempted murder 1.46
Assassination 1.37 Assassination 1.34 Assassination 1.46 Assassination 1.37
Attempted suicide 1.30 Attempted suicide 1.25 Attempted suicide 1.12 Attempted suicide 1.24
Note: CRI D Crime Rate Index.

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ISSN: 2375-4931 (Print) 2375-494X (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rpag20

The Dynamics of Crime Opportunities: Evidences

Abel O. Afon & Adewumi I. Badiora

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The Dynamics of Crime Opportunities: Evidences from Weather

Theoretical framework and literature review

The study area

Weather conditions in Ibadan, Nigeria

Spatial pattern of residential neighborhoods in Ibadan

Figure 2. Map of Ibadan metropolis indicating the spatial structure.

Methods and data

where CRI is the crime rate index.

Table 1. Socioeconomic distribution of respondents in Ibadan.

Spatial pattern of residential neighborhoods

Variable High density Medium density Low density Ibadan

Table 2. Multinomial logistic regression model of crime opportunities in Ibadan.

Assaults Break-ins Robberies

Appendix Perceived rate of crime occurrence in different residential density of Ibadan.

High density Medium density Low density Ibadan

Assaults 3.06 Break-ins 3.17 Break-ins 3.71 Assaults 3.20

Note: CRI D Crime Rate Index.

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