From: Mike Kulisheck, PhD

Managing Director

The 2024 Election Is A Toss-up and Third-Party Voters Will Decide the Winner

Donald Trump currently holds a razor-thin 42% to 40% lead over Joe Biden, with 11% supporting
third-party candidates. If third-party voters stay where they are now, they will swing the election to
Donald Trump.

A Trump victory is preordained. In an election cycle defined by hyper partisanship, support for third-
party candidates is uniquely soft and up for grabs. Only one-fifth of third-party voters are very
certain they will end up voting for their candidate, compared to seven out of 10 Biden and Trump
voters.

While third-party voters are not fans of Biden or Trump, they would rather have Biden in the White
House than Trump. When ask to choose between the two leading candidates, third-party voters opt
narrowly for Biden over Trump 32% to 23%, with 45% undecided or possibly not voting. But, fully
67% of third-party voters believe Biden is the lesser of two evils compared to Trump, and 67% worry
that third-parties will actually end up helping re-elect Trump. Compared to Biden, third-party voters
describe Trump as more authoritarian (79%), dangerous (76%) and corrupt (69%).

In the end, leaning toward Biden is not the same as voting for him. To swing the election in his favor,
Biden must earn the support of third-party voters by taking them seriously and using their worries
about Trump’s extremism to raise the stakes for 2024. To win, Biden must convince third-party
voters that defeating Trump requires voting for Biden.
Survey Questions
Next, if the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were:

All
Voters
Democrat Joe Biden 40
Republican Donald Trump 42
Independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 9
Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1
Independent Cornel West 1
Unsure 7

How certain are you will end up voting for [PIPE ANSWER] when you vote in November?

Biden Trump 3rd Party

Voters Voters Voters
Very certain 73 70 22
Fairly certain 18 18 40
Somewhat certain 5 8 23
Not certain at all 4 4 15

ASK 3rd PARTY VOTERS: For whom would you vote if the choice were between

3rd Party
Voters
Democrat Joe Biden 32
Republican Donald Trump 23
Unsure 29
Would not vote 16

ASK 3rd PARTY VOTERS: When it comes to this year’s election for president, if you had to say, who is the
lesser of the two evils?
3rd Party
Voters
Biden is definitely the lesser of two evils 22
Biden is probably the lesser of two evils 45
Trump is probably the lesser of two evils 25

Trump is definitely the lesser of two evils 8

How much do you worry that third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West will
help re-elect Donald Trump?

3rd Party
Voters
WORRY 67

Worry a lot 10
Worry some 25
Worry a little 32
Do not worry at all 33

Do the following descriptions and attributes better describe Joe Biden or Donald Trump?

Definitely Probably Probably Definitely Describes Describes

Trump Trump Biden Biden TRUMP BIDEN
better better better better better better

Is authoritarian 41 38 11 9 79 20

Is dangerous 45 31 12 12 76 24

Is corrupt 36 33 18 13 69 31
 Wobbly Republicans Threaten Trump on Election Day

Trump’s hold on Republican voters in a general election is looser than conventional wisdom
suggests, undermining his standing in a tight race against Joe Biden.

The 62% of Republicans who identify as Trump or MAGA Republicans are solidly in Trump’s corner.
Fully 94% of these Republicans are favorable toward Trump, 96% approve of the job he did as
President, and 98% say they are voting for him in 2024.

The 38% of Republicans who do not identify with Donald Trump or MAGA are a warning sign for
Republicans and a beacon of hope for Joe Biden and the Democrats. To be clear, these are
‘questioning’ Republicans, not ‘never-Trumpers.’ In fact, 71% of these Republicans currently say
they will vote for Trump. However, they have lukewarm feelings about the former president. Just
58% are favorable toward Trump, and half say they are voting against Biden rather than for Trump.
Only a narrow majority of these Republicans say that they are very certain that they will end up
voting for Trump in November.

For Trump, even a small dip with his base could have an exponential e_ect on the final outcome.
The 2024 election is defined by hyper-partisanship and razor-thin margins. In 2020, Trump lost just
6% of Republicans according to exit polls. In 2024, if he holds onto 98% of Trump/MAGA wing of the
party and keeps 71% of ‘questioning’ Republicans, he will have lost 11% of Republicans, a scenario
that make his re-election nearly impossible.

Six months before Election Day, Republican voters and the Republican party are di_erent beasts.
Donald Trump has fully tamed the party, but a bloc of Republican voters remains wild enough to
threaten his chances of victory.
Survey Questions
Above, you answered that you currently consider yourself a Republican. Which of the following best
describes the kind of Republican you are? Which is second best?
First Second First +
Choice Choice Second
A Trump Republican 35 20 55
A MAGA Republican 12 11 23
A moderate Republican 23 18 41
A socially Conservative Republican 15 11 46
A fiscally Conservative Republican 9 14 23
A Nikki Haley Republican 6 5 11
Do not identify with any other part of
23
the Republican party

Trump / MAGA Republicans 62

Not Trump / MAGA Republicans 38

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump?

Trump Not Trump

All / MAGA / MAGA
Voters Republicans Republicans
FAVORABLE 44 94 58
UNFAVORABLE 52 5 38

Very favorable 28 82 31
Somewhat favorable 16 12 27
Somewhat unfavorable 10 2 18
Very unfavorable 43 3 20
Unsure 3 2 3

Next, thinking back, do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump did when he was President?

Trump Not Trump

All / MAGA / MAGA
Voters Republicans Republicans
APPROVE 52 96 78
DISAPPROVE 48 4 22

Strongly approve 29 75 36
Somewhat approve 23 21 42
Somewhat disapprove 12 2 10
Strongly disapprove 36 2 12
Next, if the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were:

Trump Not Trump

All / MAGA / MAGA
Voters Republicans Republicans
Democrat Joe Biden 40 2 15
Republican Donald Trump 42 98 71
Independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 9 0 7
Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1 0 2
Independent Cornel West 1 0 1
Unsure 7 0 4

In the previous question, you said that you would vote for Donald Trump if the election were today. Which of
the following statements is closer to how you feel?

Trump Not Trump

/ MAGA / MAGA
Republicans Republicans
I'm voting more FOR Donald Trump 92 49
I'm vote more AGAINST Joe Biden 8 51

How certain are you will end up voting for Donald Trump when you vote in November?

Trump Not Trump

/ MAGA / MAGA
Republicans Republicans
Very certain 85 54
Fairly certain 9 24
Somewhat certain 4 12
Not certain at all 2 10
 Rose-Colored Lenses Are Trump’s Secret Weapon in 2024

Heading into the election, voters’ memories of the Trump administration have recovered and are
increasingly upbeat. Trump wins by presenting voters with a choice between rose-colored
memories of the Trump years and the gloomy conventional wisdom about Joe Biden.

Three years after the January 6th insurrection and a second Trump impeachment, 52% of voters say
they approve of the job Trump did as president. At the same time, for comparison, just 44% of
voters approve of the job Biden is doing now. This is a marked improvement from when Trump was
president and his job approval never cracked 50% and averaged in the low-40s.

Voters are now looking back on the Trump years as pretty good compared to life under Biden. They
feel the world was safer (+10%) and America was stronger (+11%) when Trump was president.
When Trump was in the White House, voters say they were more positive about the future (+5%),
prouder to be an American (+4%), and that the economy was better (+19%).

Biden will lose if voters choose between faded memories of Trump and their current thoughts about
Biden. Voters acknowledge that the Trump administration was more corrupt (+9%) and chaotic
(+9%) than the Biden administration, and that America was more divided when Trump was
president (+10%). But head-to-head, voters will put up with chaos and division if it means a strong
America and growing economy.

To win, Biden must flip the 2024 narrative so that it is about what Trump actually did in o_ice – not
rose-colored memories. He needs to call out the e_ects of Trump’s actions on the lives of everyday
Americans and the ongoing dangers Trump poses to America. For Biden, 2024 must be a
referendum, not a choice.
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as President?

APPROVE 44
DISAPPROVE 56

Strongly approve 18
Somewhat approve 26
Somewhat disapprove 15
Strongly disapprove 41

Next, thinking back, do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump did when he was President?

APPROVE 52
DISAPPROVE 48

Strongly approve 29
Somewhat approve 23
Somewhat disapprove 12
Strongly disapprove 36

For each of the following, compare America during the Biden and Trump presidencies.

During the During the Biden -

Trump Biden No diff / Trump
presidency presidency the same Diff'l

POSITIVE ITEMS
When were you more positive about the
43 38 18 -5
future? (n=1001)
When were you more proud to be an
42 38 20 -4
American? (n=1001)
When was the world safer? 43 33 24 -10

When was America stronger? 46 35 19 -11

When was the economy better? 51 32 18 -19

NEGATIVE ITEMS
When was there more corruption around the
46 37 17 -9
president?
When was government and politics more
45 36 19 -9
chaotic?
When was America more divided? 45 35 20 -10
Methodology

BSG conducted a survey of n=1,001 voters nationally. The poll fielded online from March 9-13,
2024. The sample was weighted to ensure it was proportionately representative of voters
nationwide. The overall margin of sampling error is ±3.1% at the 95% confidence level.