Professional Documents
Culture Documents
WESTERN JIHADISM
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In the teeming field of Al Qaeda studies Jytte Klausen’s book is a real gem;
a full history of AQ that really explains why it has, and will continue to have,
such staying power.
Its analysis is based on a 15-year terrorism data programme that is simply
the best I have seen. Though it may be uncomfortable reading for those
who prefer to believe that western society itself creates Al Qaeda terrorism,
Klausen’s conclusions are impossible to dodge.
Michael Clarke, Professor of Defence Studies,
University of Exeter, and Chairman,
Countering Jihadism in the UK, 2016-20
WESTERN
JIHADISM
a thirty-year history
JYTTE KLAUSEN
1
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1
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Preface
viii P re fac e
Acknowledgments
This book has been a decade in the writing. The Western Jihadism Project,
the online archive from which all the data used in this book derives, took
even longer to build. Many students, colleagues and collaborators helped
me to set up and maintain the data archive, and to prepare the book for
publication. Over the years, generations of Brandeis University students
have worked with me on research that in one way or another is the foun-
dation for this book. This book is dedicated to them.
My deep thanks go to Rosanne Libretti, a dedicated collaborator and a
skilled and tireless research assistant, who is responsible for the graphic of
the global organization of Western jihadism that graces the cover of this
book. Two of my students, Joseph Coles and Nick Yanco, helped push me
over the goal line by mastering the reference management software used
here to keep track of the many references and generate the bibliography.
Special thanks are due to Annalyn Bachmann, Alexandra Johnson,
Priyanka R. Renugopalakrishnan, Eliane Tschaen Barbieri, and Aaron Y. Zelin,
who became collaborators and co- authors. Haliana Burhans, Selene
Campion, Sam Chestna, Katherine Dowling, Zachary Herman, Daniel
Mangoubi, Evan Maloney, and Yujiao Su began as student assistants and
stayed on to work on the research for years, sometimes returning after grad-
uation to do more work. Rima Farah helped with the translation of Bin
Laden’s personal journal from his difficult handwriting in Arabic. Siyi Cao,
Alyssa Goncalves, Michael Nagler and Siting Ren built the online infra-
structure for the data collection in a relational database management system
that made it doable to coordinate qualitative and quantitative data.
Some years ago, Benjamin Hung got in touch with me to ask for permis-
sion to use some of my data. This became the beginning of a fruitful and
intellectually challenging collaboration that features in Chapter 9 of this
book. Benjamin and his colleagues in computer science at Colorado State
University, Anura Jayasumana and Shashika Muramudalige have been
steadfast research collaborators throughout the perilous pandemic.
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x A c k nowle dg m e nts
Contents
1. Introduction 1
2. The Founder 34
1
Introduction
I nt roduc tion 3
are represented in the database. The methods used for collecting the data are
described in the Appendix.
The network map on the cover of this book depicts thirty years of net-
working by Western jihadists and their bosses in the global jihadist move-
ment. The network lines resemble familiar maps stashed in the pockets of
seats on board planes showing the airline’s route net traversing the earth.
Here, they represent communications between Western militants and their
opposite numbers in the network. The map shows the travel from their
hometowns in the pursuit of terrorism-related activities, and it charts their
communications with other actors in terrorist networks. Each dot and line
reflects a data point derived from public information gathered by my teams
of student researchers and manually entered into a digitally-managed data-
base. It took fifteen years and the work of eighty students.
Analytically, the militants and their organizations are treated as a con-
necting point in the network (nodes).The dots pinned on the map mark the
militants’ residencies and the geographical locations in which they engaged
in terrorist activities or the location of their contacts. Each line (edge) between
the nodes in the network represents communications for purposes of con-
spiracy, acts of terrorism, and other actions or communications associated
with terrorism-related crimes revealed in public records.
A total of 44,500 edges representing links between the actors and entities
were used in the generation of the network graphic. The cover graphic
vividly illustrates how Western-based militants integrated with the global
jihadist movement, and connected with its training camps in Afghanistan
and Pakistan, and with jihadist insurgencies from Somalia to Syria.
The dense mass of connected dots linking the nodes in North America,
Western Europe and Australia provides a summary visual representation of
the transnational social organization of Western jihadism uncovered by the
research project. The map shows how widely dispersed the cells, organiza
tions, and individuals are across the Western world from Alaska and the
U.S. West Coast to Asia and on to Australia, and how closely they are inter-
related. It may be assumed that the map captures just the visible tip of the
metaphorical iceberg. Those depicted here are only the publicly-known
networked communications that we have been able to document from the
public records available to us through court documents and media reports.
Whatever lies below, we do not and cannot know.
Al Qaeda in the 1990s was like a start-up. It failed and then failed again.
But it had a formula for starting up once more. Operating both in jihadist
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I nt roduc tion 5
heartlands and in the West, the movement has spread through a process that
I will describe as networked contagion. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, a
cadre of North African and Arab Islamist militants escaped to Europe and
North America following failed attempts at revolution at home. From their
bases in New York, London, Milan, Madrid, and a handful of other cities,
they helped Osama Bin Laden staff Al Qaeda and provided logistical sup-
port and manpower so that Bin Laden could strike at the West. The bold
attack on the United States on September 11, 2001, was a crowning achieve-
ment for Bin Laden’s organization.
Bin Laden was not a theorist of revolution, or a religious scholar. He was
a political entrepreneur. His singular accomplishment was to give extremist
Islamism a new strategic direction by focusing on a war against the “far
enemy,” the United States and its Western allies. Global terrorism was the
tactic, but for that he needed Western adherents who could man clandestine
transnational networks and use their passports to travel far and wide. His
special talent was the ability to translate theory into action. He saw early on
that new communications technologies made it possible for his organiza-
tion to coordinate globally and exploit gaps in surveillance.
For many years, few people in the West understood the true nature of the
extremist Islamist ideology that motivated many jihadist refugees. In any
case, it was assumed that they would do as most exiled expatriates do—
blend in, be grateful for having been granted refuge, and direct their anger
against their home countries.
There were well-trodden pathways of migration from former colonies to
the metropolitan centers of the former colonial powers and to New York
City, a favorite destination for generations of migrants. Generous rules for
granting residency to political refugees and persecuted religious groups
from the Soviet Union and the Eastern bloc countries had been passed in
the 1980s. These opened the doors also to religious dissidents from author-
itarian Muslim countries.
The first generation of jihadist refugees included some men who became
leading figures in the jihad against the West. Omar Abdel- Rahman,
an Egyptian cleric, known as the “Blind Sheikh,” led the cell responsible
for the 1993 World Trade Center from a perch in Brooklyn. Abu Qatada
al-Filistini (meaning “the Palestinian”), whose real name is Omar Mahmoud
Mohammad, lived in London for two decades, where he built up a formi-
dable local network and was a nuisance to British authorities until he was
deported to Jordan in 2013. Abu Dahdah (alias Emad Eddin Barakat Yarkas)
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I nt roduc tion 7
movement grow back, changing the ways in which the terrorist networks
organize their operations and recruit new followers. This time, the rescue
took the form of what became known as “homegrown” terrorism.
Some analysts interpreted the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011 that swept
Arab countries with a demand for reform and democracy as a repudiation
of Al Qaeda’s agenda. Fawaz Gerges, a professor at the London School of
Economics, wrote that, “Only a miracle will resuscitate a transnational jihad
of the al-Qaeda variety [ ...] the Arab Spring represents a fundamental chal-
lenge to the very conditions that fuel extremist ideologies.”4 In 2012, Peter
Bergen, the author of several books on Bin Laden and a commentator on
CNN, declared that Al Qaeda had been “defeated” because of the Arab
Spring. He compared Al Qaeda to Blockbuster, a video rental chain that
went bust when movie watching went online.5
Skeptics countered that the pro-reform Arab Spring movement was frac-
tured, and that in many places it was coming under the control of the better
organized Islamist groups.Two veteran Al Qaeda observers, Bruce Hoffman
and Rohan Gunaratna, were among the skeptics.6 Acknowledging that the
first generation of Al Qaeda, the so-called “Core,” may be in decline, Al
Qaeda has succeeded in expanding its tentacles. Al Qaeda’s tactic, Gunaratna
wrote, was to go along with the democratic movements in the short term
and win over new recruits.They would then try to take over the local resist
ance.This was what happened.When the regimes collapsed in Tunisia, Libya,
Egypt, and Yemen, the extremists found room to recruit new followers. In
Syria and Iraq, civil wars opened doors for a jihadist revival.
Democracy, it turned out, was not the antidote to extremism that it was
supposed to be. Tunisia is an example of a successful transition from an
authoritarian regime to a representative democratic republic after the 2011
Arab Spring revolution. But as Aaron Zelin writes, Tunisians joined the
Islamic State in unprecedented numbers and became one of its largest
sources of foreign fighters.7
By 2012, Syria had become a destination for old and new militants com-
mitted to the jihadist program.The proximity to Europe made this war zone
particularly attractive to a new generation of righteous fighters for the
cause—and their would-be wives. The movement’s European bases sprang
into action again, recruiting and organizing volunteers to fight with Al
Qaeda. Some militants opted rather for Al Qaeda’s deviant offspring, the
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (referred to as Da’esh, ISIL or ISIS).
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I nt roduc tion 9
achieve their goals.”14 Bin Laden had a surprisingly large collection of books
written by American analysts and academics in his house in Abbottabad,
Pakistan. He might have been interested. But would ignoring Al Qaeda
persuade Ayman al-Zawahiri, the Egyptian physician and militant who
became the leader of Al Qaeda after Bin Laden’s death in 2011, to negotiate?
There is no plausible scenario under which that is a likely outcome.
In twenty years, Al Qaeda has not been able to stage another coup on the
scale of the 9/11 attacks. International terrorism could be ignored as a risk
to American domestic security—which among some of the more isolation-
ists thinkers in international relations is all that matters—unless they have
“weapons of mass destruction” (WMD) capable of causing mass civilian
casualties. And it is unlikely that terrorist groups will get their hands on
WMDs without the help of a state sponsor.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the list of candidates for state
sponsors of terrorism narrowed to Iran, Iraq, and North Korea. Rogue
countries like these could—and should—be kept in check by the traditional
means available to the United States as a superpower. Hawks in the Bush
administration trumpeted a Saddam Hussein-Bin Laden “axis of evil” that
justified the 2003 Iraq War. There was no such alliance, although the theo-
retical model insisted it just had to be there. Ironically, the architects of the
2003 invasion of Iraq, Dick Cheney, the Vice-President, Donald Rumsfeld,
the Secretary of Defense, and Paul Wolfowitz, security advisor to
George W. Bush, were all political scientists, and adherents of Realist theory.
They drew the conclusion that, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the
United States was left standing as the “hegemon” in a “unipolar” world.
Now it was up to the United States to set the rules. (There was also the idea
that in a unipolar world spreading democracy by military force was in the
long- term interest of the United States.) Daniel Deudney and John
Ikenberry describe the disagreement between interventionists and advo-
cates of restraint as an inter-mural dispute among Realists.15 This disagree-
ment also does not overlap neatly with partisan political divisions. Democrats
and Republicans alike are split between advocates of restraint, bordering on
isolationism, and humanitarian “interventionists” accused of perpetuating
an “endless” war on global terrorism.
Realists who do not favor military intervention often advocate variants
of what they call “offshore” balancing, foregoing direct military interven-
tions and letting the locals handle local problems. “Onshore” deployment
brings with it the risk that the United States will make itself responsible for
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situations that the country cannot, and need not, control. The wars in
Afghanistan and Iraq are held up as prime examples. However, isolationism
cannot put the genie of globalization back in the bottle. Can the United
States simply turn away when humanitarian concerns demand interven-
tion? From Cambodia’s Pol Pot to Serbian atrocities in Bosnia, and on to
genocide in Rwanda and the Islamic State, the American response has been
inconsistent. When human rights advocates argue for military intervention
to prevent atrocities, Realists are the skeptics at the table.
When it comes to terrorism far away from American shores, Realists of
both camps agree that terrorism is a top-down problem. Modify how the
leaders act, and so reduce the demand for terrorists. If the demand for ter-
rorists goes away, the terrorists will also go away. Rather like Abrahms,
Audrey Cronin argues, in How Terrorism Ends, that states should start nego-
tiating with leaders of terrorist groups, including Al Qaeda. It is a weak and
divided organization, she writes, which has actually been strengthened by
the overreaction of government agencies.16 Similar views may be found in the
works of a number of political scientists: John Muller and Mark G. Stewart,
Marc Sageman, and Charles Kurzman, to mention a few.17 But, as Cronin
acknowledges, Al Qaeda has outlived the statistical life expectancy of ter-
rorist groups—and it has repeatedly made a comeback after predictions of
its demise.
The Realist worldview suffers from an unrealistically narrow conceptu-
alization of rational action. Terrorist groups base their strategies and actions
on their own theories about this world and the next.18 The Realists assume
that the jihadists are either out to get their own patch of land or are proxies
for states seeking to control territory. This misconstrues the aims of the
jihadist movement. The jihadist worldview is anchored in an apocalyptic
vision of an Islamic awakening that will sweep away all borders. With that
comes a theory of history, and there follows, logically enough, a blueprint
for action that relies on divine intervention.
Al Qaeda has failed many times but has a capacity for recovery unparal-
leled among terrorist groups. Bin Laden fatally miscalculated how the
United States would respond to the 9/11 attacks. The retaliation that fol-
lowed caused huge damage to him personally and to his organization. But
the Realist school has consistently underestimated the resilience of Bin
Laden’s organization and of the jihadist networks.The state-centric focus of
the Realists blinds them to the true strengths of the jihadist movement. The
jihadists are capable of adjusting tactics to the facts on the ground.They can
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but close enough to allow the factions their own turf. That is not what
happened. Saddam-era officers ran three of the twenty-three ministries of
government created by the Islamic State: security, military, and finance.
But even so, there were problems. “Within days they took the revolution
away from us,” an ex-Baathist complained to journalists from Reuters in
December 2015.23 He had helped the Islamic State take over Mosul in June
2014, a victory that was critical to the terrorist group’s forward march.
The Islamic State did want a state but not as much as they wanted to
construct a global organization. In September 2014, fresh from significant
conquests in Iraq and Syria, ISIS’s spokesman, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani
al-Shami, instructed “soldiers of the Islamic State” to conduct attacks
against the West. Over the next twelve months, a wave of attacks took place
in Europe and the United States, and against tourist targets in North
Africa. All were credited to ISIS.
In November 2015, a series of coordinated attacks in Paris carried out by
French-Belgian militants who had returned to Europe on the instructions
of Islamic State operatives killed 130 people and injured many hundreds.
A second punch came in Brussels in March 2016, committed by the same
network of Europeans returning from ISIS’s insurgent “state” and managed
by Frenchmen working for the ISIS high command. The attacks and the
networks behind them are described in Chapter 11.
A second school of thought on the roots of terrorism owes more to
sociology than to political science. Sociologists often suggest an affinity
between the Western jihadists and other, more conventional, bottom-up
social movements.24 The term “social movements” connotes loosely organ
ized and diffuse groupings and tendencies that lack formal organization and
are held together by shared identity or by participation in a common cam-
paign. People attracted to such movements are often thought to be driven
by a sense of loss, or by outrage, or by fear. At least when applied to terror-
ism, there is a danger that this will turn into a circular argument: only angry
people use violence; therefore, terrorists must be angry and alienated.
“Terrorism needs a sense of alienation from the status quo and a desire to
change it,” wrote Louise Richardson in the aftermath of the July 2005
attacks on the London Underground.25 Europe’s Muslims were “disenfran-
chised and disillusioned by the failure of integration.”26 There are different
versions of the argument but, broadly, it identifies social disadvantage and
discrimination as the root causes of political violence and protest politics.
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A working group set up by the British government after the 2005 London
Underground bombing sendorsed the alienation thesis declaring, : “the root
causes of terrorism are discrimination, deprivation, and alienation facing
British Muslims.”27
This focus on alienation leads to the idea that “homegrown” terrorism,
violent acts committed in the name of Al Qaeda, are manifestations of a
spontaneous, leaderless, and bottom-up reaction to perceived injustice.
Marc Sageman provocatively argued that Al Qaeda does not exist as a
coherent organization, except in the minds of counterterrorism officials.28
Western militants are a self-sufficient “bunches of guys,” he argued, and
their relationship to Al Qaeda is “aspirational.” They are motivated by anger
and peer solidarity, and their organization has the characteristics of a
“leaderless” social movement.29
In an odd twist, Al Qaeda associates often allude to “leaderless resist
ance.”30 Adam Gadahn, an American who became Al Qaeda’s chief press
officer, exhorted Muslims not to wait for orders in a videotaped message:
“My Muslim brothers, Jihad [ . . . ] is the personal duty of every able-
bodied Muslim on the face of this earth, until the last Muslim captive is
freed and the last piece of occupied Islamic land is recovered and until
Muslims live in safety and security in the benevolent shadow of the
Islamic state.”31
Gadahn’s words would seem to support Sageman’s argument that we are
dealing here with a bottom-up movement. His rhetoric may also lend sup-
port to the idea that grievances motivate action. They may even bolster the
Realist argument that Al Qaeda is at heart a resistance movement seeking
national liberation. However, an obvious problem with that interpretation is
that the concept of “occupied Islamic land” in Gadahn’s speech includes
every Muslim state on the map, and also swathes of Europe and Africa that
were once part of a larger Muslim empire.
Recruitment tactics and religious rhetoric both inform the things that
terrorists say. But what they say should not be confused with the motiva-
tions for their actions. In his “Letter to America” in 2002, Bin Laden pur-
ported to explain why he had attacked the United States on September 11,
2001. He recited a long list of grievances and demands, including the fol-
lowing: “stop your oppression, lies, immorality and debauchery that has
spread among you” and “it is saddening to tell you that you are the worst
civilization witnessed by the history of mankind.”32
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many recent violent incidents did not arise from multicultural coddling of
extremist identity politics.
Another school of thought about the roots of jihadist terrorism takes off
from what is broadly called organization theory. I include under this rubric
network theory, a general approach to understanding how things work that
has broad applications in sociology, economics, and epidemiology.
Organization theory draws on economic sociology, which developed in
reaction to more abstract approaches in economics.Writing in 1937, Ronald
Coase, an economist and a founding member of the organization theory
school, memorably summed up this thinking: “If a workman moves from
department Y to department X, he does not go because of a change in rel-
ative prices but because he is ordered to do so.”43 Organization theory is
focused on how human behavior is shaped by structures and contexts. The
basic axioms are simple: individuals make decisions contingent on what
they know, what works for them, and how they may most efficiently obtain
the result that they desire, at least in the short term.The bosses call the shots.
The employees follow. Herbert Simon, another famous economist in this
school and a Nobel Prize winning economist (1978), called its basic principle
“bounded rationality.”
Modern organization theory has gone through many updates since the
works of the founding fathers. Interesting applications in the study of ter-
rorism include Jacob N. Shapiro’s book The Terrorist’s Dilemma (2013), in
which Shapiro argues that terrorist groups control their members in the
same way as business leaders manage their organizations.44 Terrorist groups
have leaders and followers, and the leaders tell the followers when and how
to fight, and when to die.They are rule-driven organizations because ideol-
ogy determines what is legitimate and what is not, where to hit and where
to refrain from direct attack.
Another example of counterintuitive inferences following from this way
of thinking is Alexander Gutfraind’s theory of a “sink-line” tipping point,
where terrorist groups go into decline.45 To stay in business, a terrorist
organization must grow, replace losses, and if possible expand its ranks, while
preserving core strategic objectives. Leaders face a dilemma. To stay true to
the objectives and to recruit new members, terrorist bosses must order
attacks. Attacks mean members will die or get caught by law enforcement
agencies. In other words, to make the business grow the bosses must sacri-
fice members. If too many members are sacrificed and not enough new
recruits are brought on board, the organization will sink. If the bosses protect
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members by ordering fewer attacks, and if they themselves seek out safe
havens, the business will also suffer. Bruce Hoffman’s evocative comparison
of Al Qaeda to a shark that “must keep moving forward, no matter how
slow or incrementally, or die” serves as an apt metaphor for the logic driving
Al Qaeda’s business model.46
A number of different models have been proposed to describe the man-
agement structures of the transnational networks that linked Western fol-
lowers to terrorist central command abroad. Miles Kahler has argued that Al
Qaeda should be studied in the same way as criminologists study a transna-
tional crime cartel. Like them, Al Qaeda is in the business of transporting
people, money, and contraband across borders.47 Other models range from
control- and-command structures to self- managed “leaderless” cells. The
reality is that both types of cells may be observed. The efficient and consist
ent coordination of complex illegal operations across countries require a
centralized command and control structure. For that purpose, a transna-
tional networked organization can protect the bosses against exposure when
things go wrong and arrests are made by placing operatives and bosses in
different jurisdictions. Mimicking a social movement and spreading the
word through the channels available in free societies, in contrast, better serve
proselytizing and recruitment objectives.
Surprisingly counterintuitive inferences follow. One is that terrorist
organizations that operate in highly competitive markets are likely to be
more violent than those that enjoy something approaching a local monop-
oly. (Empirical evidence suggests this is broadly accurate.)48 However,
weaker organizations may also have to become more violent in order to
attract support and new members. The primary purpose of violence is
control—but it also works as propaganda and to recruit new followers.
Controlling the message and the manpower has historically been impor
tant to the jihadist organizations. Al Qaeda and the Islamic State could be
remarkably bureaucratic. The plans drawn up for Al Qaeda at the organiza
tion’s founding meeting resembled a Third World government bureaucracy,
with directorates for requisition and finances; employment contracts for
foreign fighters stipulating their pay and rest and recreation days off from
combat contingent on status (married, not married); and vouchers in lieu
of monetary rewards, etc. The organization plan had more boxes in the
diagram than there were people present at the meeting and the sparseness
of Bin Laden’s organization was such that it seemed unlikely that enough
officers could be found to fill all the offices.
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jobs through networks.54 They get married through networks. They join
churches and go on pilgrimages through networks. In their book, Connected
(2009), Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler analyzed how networks
determine behaviors and developed what they called the Three Degrees
of Influence Rule, which holds that influence networks work through
your friends (first degree), the friends of friends (second degree), and the
friends’ friends’ friends (third degree).55 Ideas spread through networks.
Innovation does, too. Studying civil rights activists who had risked life and
imprisonment by engaging in civil disobedience in 1964, the sociologist
Douglas McAdam concluded that simply knowing someone who was
already engaged in the movement made recruitment to this high-risk
political activity much more likely.56 Today a person—certainly a young
person—is likely to catch an idea through online social networks. But
terrorism does not stay online. It happens offline, in real-life collabora-
tions and networks.
Network theory suggests a simple hypothesis: to become a terrorist, you
first have to know one. Norms, contacts, and opportunities flow through
networks. Individuals belonging to the same network tend to see them-
selves as socially similar, and they are therefore predisposed to find value in
the same ideas and behaviors. The social contagion mechanisms by means
of which jihadist radicalization is transmitted are not very different from
those that lead people to become anti-federalists or to join cults and other
high-r isk, adversarial belief communities. Empirical studies, some of which
will be discussed in detail later in the book, support an understanding of
radicalization as a psychosocial process that involves reinforcement by peers
and communities.57
Networks are often thought of as a “good thing.” Robert Putnam’s book,
Bowling Alone (2002), presented the decline of inter-personal social net-
works as the cause of social disengagement and decline.The book did much
to represent social networks in a rosy glow. Putnam said networks build
“social capital,” a civic investment in societal investment and growth.
Twenty years later, a tectonic shift brought along by online media has
people thinking differently about the benefits of networking. Social capital
has many guises, and not all are for the good of society, or for the individual
caught up in them. Victor Asal, a political scientist, describes “dark” net-
works as social capital gone wrong and utilized for evil purposes.58 “Thick”
social networks, which rely on family ties, kinship, and peer groups to build
cohesion and control may support investment and progress, and civic and
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economic development; but they can also confine their members in a social
prison, or be mobilized for illicit purpose.
Social contagion models have been used to study the spread of public
health problems such as obesity and smoking, and also to study opinion
formation and the spread of innovations. Social contagion through net-
works, online or offline, whether based on geographical or cultural proxim-
ity, peer groups or self-chosen identities, is a well-established way to describe
and explain the spread of a range of behaviors in public health, economics,
and sociology and political science.59 Herbert Blumer, a sociologist whose
work on social contagion was inspired by the turbulence of the 1930s, regarded
social contagion as central to a broad range of group behaviors that individ-
uals would not undertake under normal circumstances—e.g.“crowds, mobs,
panics, manias, dancing crazes, stampedes, mass behavior, public opinion,
propaganda, fashion, fads, social movements, revolutions, and reforms.”60
Violent extremism fits right in.61
In epidemiology, contagion is the mechanism through which diseases are
spread by direct contact between a sick and a healthy person.This is contact,
or “simple” contagion. The coronavirus pandemic has made this type of
contagion familiar to everybody. Catching an idea or a behavior from
another person is obviously a different matter. It involves volition, opportu-
nity, and access. The individual has to be receptive to the ideas. And to exe-
cute the program of action, there must be an organization of fellow believers
capable of providing direction and reinforcement. It is more accurate to
identify facilitated complex social contagion as the mechanism by which
extremism grows. It is facilitated because savvy operators can manipulate a
recruitment networks to promote contagion. Complex (rather than simple)
contagion is involved because social reinforcement is required. A person is
more likely to join a group holding particular views if he or she has affi rm
ative connections with others who subscribe to the same ideas.
Network theory is a methodology that provides a way of analyzing social
structures. But network structures themselves tend to produce certain out-
comes, simply because of the way in which they are built to work.62 They
are relatively durable and compelling instruments for resource mobilization
and organization. Taking network structures as explanations of social action
is an example of what Robert Merton described as middle-range theories;
theories that can guide empirical inquiry and are “intermediate to general
theories of social systems which are too remote from particular classes of
social behavior, organization, and change.”63
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700
650
600
550
500
Count of Individuals
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
19 0
19 1
19 2
19 3
94
19 5
19 6
97
19 8
20 9
20 0
20 1
20 2
20 3
20 4
20 5
20 6
20 7
20 8
20 9
20 0
20 1
12
20 3
20 4
20 5
20 6
20 7
20 8
19
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
19
19
19
20
Year
Arrest Death Foreign Fighting Attempt
Ilyas Kashmiri, a veteran operative who worked for both Al Qaeda and
Mullah Omar’s Taliban, deputized the operational planning of the plot to
David Coleman Headley, a Pakistani- American, who traveled twice to
Denmark to scout out the targets.70 Headley went so far as to walk into the
newspaper’s building in Copenhagen where he pretended to want to place
an ad.The plot was modeled on the November 2008 assault in Mumbai, for
which Headley also did the pre-attack scouting. (He was sentenced to
thirty-five years in prison in 2013 after a trial in U.S. federal court in
Chicago.)
In 2009, simultaneous attacks in New York City and in Manchester were
foiled.71 The master planner was Adnan Shukrijumah, an American from
Florida, who joined Al Qaeda around the time of the 9/11 attacks. The
coordinated strikes were supposed to be another signature Al Qaeda opera-
tion. It was foiled and forgotten, and is left off the list.72 In 2010, Al Qaeda
took responsibility for a bombing of a German bakery in Mumbai, India.
The civil war in Syria was an interlude, a tactical retreat by Al Qaeda
from its campaign against the “far enemy.” The hiatus ended on December 6,
2019, when a Saudi cadet on a military exchange program, Mohammed
Saeed Alshamrani, shot and killed three U.S. sailors inside a classroom on a
U.S. Naval base in Pensacola, Florida. Four months later, the government
accessed his iPhone and discovered that Alshamrani had been in touch with
handlers from Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) before the attack
and for years before he arrived in the United States.73 It was an “insider
attack” conducted in the signature style of AQAP. Alshamrani had been
radicalized as early as 2015. He was directed by his handlers in AQAP to join
the Royal Saudi Air Force, and with that cover to undertake a terrorist mis-
sion in the United States. The objective of the mission was, as always, to
compel the United States to withdraw from collaboration with the “near
enemy,” Saudi Arabia. Initially, the reaction was the one the terrorists hoped
for. In the aftermath of the shooting, the Pentagon reacted by suspending all
operational training for 900 Saudi military students on American bases.
A stricter vetting program was also announced for an estimated 5,200 Saudi
Arabian students in the United States, making it more difficult for Saudis to
study at American universities.
This book provides little support for the “declinist” thesis that Al Qaeda
is “over.” Nor does it support the notion that crude and badly targeted
counterterrorism policies are counterproductive and end up providing
Al Qaeda and ISIS with newly alienated followers. These arguments
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isconstrue both why and how people living in Western societies end up
m
joining the global jihadist movement. They also tend to understate the
threat the jihadists posed to American interests.
The migration of thousands of foreign fighters to join jihadist groups in
the Syrian civil war mobilized the Western bases and brought many new
recruits to the global struggle. Not only did the movement grow in size, it also
diffused across the map and set up footholds in small and midsized cities across
North America and Western Europe, and further afield. A new cadre of
trained operatives and professional fighters with military training was created.
So, the underlying structural factors that have historically allowed Al Qaeda
and the global jihadist movement to regenerate are still in place. Outposts and
networks are still there, with the potential to support fresh strikes.
Notes
1. Reports from the U.N. The Counter- Terrorism Committee Executive
Directorate and the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team can
be found here https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/un_documents_type/
sanctions-committee-documents/?ctype=Terrorism&cbtype=terrorism; Seth
Jones et al., The Evolution of the Salafi-Jihadist Threat, 7.
2. Jihadism is a composite word made up of the Arabic stem word—jihad—and
the suffix, -ism, which derives from Greek and Latin. Jihad refers to warfare to
protect or expand Islam. The concept has a long and complicated history in
Islamic religious jurisprudence. It is used, in Arabic, also in everyday secular
meanings detached from military conflict and menacing armies.The –ism suffix
makes the word refer to a practice, a belief system. The term is related the
classical Koranic concept of jihad in a similar way to how “social” relates to
socialism. Hardly at all, that is.
3. Giddens, The Consequences of Modernity, 64.
4. Gerges, “Fawaz A. Gerges on How the Arab Spring Beat Al Qaeda.”
5. Bergen, “Time to Declare Victory.”
6. Gunaratna, “Is Al Qaeda on the Wrong Side of History?”; Holbrook, “Al-Qaeda’s
Response to the Arab Spring”; Hoffman, “Al Qaeda’s Uncertain Future.”
7. Zelin, Your Sons Are at Your Service.
8. Comments made by Army Lt. Gen. Michael K. Nagata, director of the National
Counterterrorism Center’s Directorate for Strategic Operational Planning, at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington D.C, April 6, 2017.
9. Crenshaw, Explaining Terrorism, 169.
10. National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, “The 9/11
Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist
Attacks Upon the United States,” 339.
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CHANT XV
[1] Page 2, ligne 3. — C’est ainsi que votre victoire fut digne
d’éloges. — Allusion à la victoire que le cardinal Hippolyte d’Este, à
la tête de trois cents cavaliers et autant de fantassins, remporta sur
les Vénitiens près de Volano.
[2] Page 3, ligne 12. — Roi des îles Fortunées. — Les anciens
nommaient ainsi les îles Canaries.
[3] Page 5, ligne 23. — La Chersonèse d’or. — La presqu’île de
Malacca, ainsi nommée par les anciens à cause de sa prodigieuse
fertilité.
[4] Page 11, ligne 16. — Il chevaucha le long du fleuve Trajan. —
Une carte hollandaise de 1629 indique un fleuve de ce nom comme
un des affluents du Nil. Quelques commentateurs croient que le
poète a voulu désigner par là le canal que l’empereur Trajan fit
creuser du Nil à la mer Rouge.
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CHANT XVII
[7] Page 51, lignes 20 et 21. — Ceux-ci ont appelé des bois
ultramontains d’autres loups plus affamés. — Jules II, après la
défaite de Ravenne, fit appel aux Suisses qui couvrirent de sang et
de ruines les plaines de la Lombardie.
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CHANT XX