Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:20497–20509

DOI 10.1007/s11356-017-0334-2

WATER: FROM POLLUTION TO PURIFICATION

Nutrient loads in the river mouth of the Río Verde basin in Jalisco,
Mexico: how to prevent eutrophication in the future reservoir?
Gonzalo Jayme-Torres 1 & Anne M. Hansen 2

Received: 23 March 2017 / Accepted: 25 September 2017 / Published online: 4 October 2017
# Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2017

Abstract Since nutrients are emitted and mobilized in river
basins, causing eutrophication of water bodies, it is important
to reduce such emissions and subsequent nutrient loads. Due
to processes of attenuation, nutrient loads are reduced during
their mobilization in river basins. At the mouth of the Río
Verde basin in western Mexico, the El Purgatorio dam is being
constructed to supply water to the metropolitan area of the
second most populated city in the country, Guadalajara. To
analyze situations that allow protecting this future dam from
eutrophication, nutrient loads in the mouth of the river basin
were determined and their reduction scenarios evaluated by
using the NEWS2 (Nutrient Export from Watersheds) model.
For this, a nutrient emissions inventory was established and
used to model nutrient loads, and modeling results were com-
pared to an analysis of water quality data from two different
monitoring sites located on the river. The results suggest that
96% of nitrogen and 99% of phosphorus emissions are atten-
uated in the watershed. Nutrient loads reaching the mouth of
the river basin come mainly from wastewater discharges,
followed by livestock activities and different land uses, and
loads are higher as emissions are located closer to the mouth
of the river basin. To achieve and maintain mesotrophic state
of water in the future dam, different nutrient emission reduc-
tion scenarios were evaluated. According to these results, the
Responsible editor: Thomas Hein
* Anne M. Hansen
ahansen@tlaloc.imta.mx
1
Posgrado en Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México,
Campus Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Paseo
Cuauhnáuac 8532, Jiutepec 62550, Mor., Mexico
2
Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Paseo Cuauhnáhuac
8532, Jiutepec 62550, Mor., Mexico
reduction of 90% of the phosphorus loads in wastewater emis-
sions or 75% of the phosphorus loads in wastewater emissions
and at least 50% in emissions from livestock activities in the
river basin are required.
Keywords NEWS2 river modeling . N and P nutrients .
Eutrophication . Protection of water bodies . Scenarios
simulation
Introduction
Nutrient loads of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are the
main causes of eutrophication or enrichment of nutrients in
water bodies (OECD 1982). To protect lakes and reservoirs, it
is therefore necessary to assess the loads of these pollutants
that originate from both point and diffuse sources. Nutrient
loads can be determined by analyzing monitoring data of con-
centrations and water flows, but this does not allow quantify-
ing the relation between emission and loads or Battenuation^,
defined as the physical, chemical, and biological processes
that reduce the mass or mobility of contaminants in water-
sheds (USEPA 1999). The information obtained from moni-
toring data is therefore often limited and does not allow
assessing emission and resulting load reduction scenarios.
On the other hand, nutrient loads to water bodies can be esti-
mated using models that describe emissions of nutrients and
resulting loads (USEPA 2008). To perform modeling of nutri-
ent loads, emission source inventories are required as well as
information on the characteristics of the watershed (IOC
2008). Once implemented, such load modeling methods en-
able the formulation and evaluation of reduction scenarios of
nutrient loads to water bodies under diverse emission situa-
tions and water management conditions (NOAA 2004).
20498
Different nutrient export models serve various purposes. It
is not the scope of this work to evaluate the seasonal variations
in the basin or the processes that will take place within the dam
but rather to describe actual annual loads and to predict loads
occurring under different emission scenarios. The lumped
annual-scale models have been useful in predicting past and
future changes in nutrient exports to the river basin mouths
and can assist in the formulation of policies aimed at reducing
eutrophication, including for data-scarce regions (Kroeze et al.
2012).
Howarth et al. (1996) examined the flux of N from large
watershed regions to the North Atlantic Ocean in the context
of N inputs from human activity. Considered inputs were use
of synthetic N fertilizer, N fixation associated with agricultural
crops, atmospheric deposition of oxidized N, and net move-
ments of N into or out of the region in human food and animal
feeds. The sums of these inputs were the net anthropogenic
nitrogen inputs (NANI). A similar accounting approach has
been applied to phosphorus, resulting in the calculation of net
anthropogenic phosphorus input (NAPI) (Han et al. 2011;
Russell et al. 2008).
Using this approach requires to develop a methodology
capable of evaluating conditions in other watersheds, subject
to varying agronomic practices and substantially different di-
etary preferences (Hong et al. 2012). In the Río Verde basin, N
and P monitoring data are scarce and not consistently refer-
enced in space and time. Therefore, the NEWS2 model
(Nutrient Export from Watersheds) was chosen because it re-
quires less information to estimate the total nutrient loads from
both natural and anthropogenic sources.
The NEWS2 was selected among other nutrient export
models to forecast nutrient exports to the mouth of the
Río Verde basin. The NEWS models were developed by
UNESCO to assess nutrient loads in watersheds, taking
into account the emissions and the effects of the processes
that occur during mobilization and attenuation of nutrients
(Mayorga et al. 2010). These NEWS models are spatially
explicit, quantify annual nutrient loads, identify their
sources, and estimate nutrient exports at river basin
mouths. In total, this approach calculates nutrient exports
as a function of human activities and basin characteristics,
integrating available knowledge in simple regression
models that account for climate, soil characteristics, land
uses, and wastewater discharges, and thereby identifying
risks and dominant causes for eutrophication (Kroeze
et al. 2012). NEWS2 has been used to evaluate nutrient
exports in river basins in several parts of the world, such
as Africa (Yasin et al. 2010), South America (van der
Strujik and Kroeze 2010), and China (Qu and Kroeze
2010, 2012). Furthermore, van der Strujik and Kroeze
(2010) compared the nutrient loads calculated with the
NEWS2 model with measured nutrient and water flow
values from South American river basins, observing that
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:20497–20509
the NEWS2 model performed reasonably well in these
regions, where monitoring data are scarce.
The aim of this study is to apply this approach to the
Río Verde basin (20,632 km2) in order to evaluate nutrient
loads and explore reduction scenarios to protect water
from eutrophication in the mouth of the Río Verde basin,
where the El Purgatorio dam is under construction. The
reservoir will have a volume of 3.49 Mm3 to partially
supply water to the metropolitan area of Mexico’s second
largest city, Guadalajara. The information on nutrient load
scenarios will be essential in the formulation of policies
aimed at reducing eutrophication of water in the El
Purgatorio reservoir, located approximately 10 km north-
east of the metropolitan area of Guadalajara.
Study area
The study area is the Río Verde hydrological basin that par-
tially covers the states of Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, Jalisco,
San Luis Potosí, and Zacatecas, Mexico; its total extension is
approximately 20,632 km2 (Fig. 1), which is slightly over the
lower limit of 20,000 km2, recommended for application of
the NEWS2 model (Mayorga et al. 2010). The length of the
Río Verde exceeds 200 km. Elevated nutrient concentrations
affect water quality in the river basin, causing excessive algae
and water hyacinth growth in already existing dams in the
river basin.
Methods
Nutrient emissions inventory
A nutrient source inventory for the Río Verde basin, which
incorporates nutrient sources from different land uses, live-
stock, industrial, domestic, and municipal wastewater dis-
charges on the river shores, was developed by Corzo-Juaréz
(2009) and completed by Jayme-Torres (2014), by including
all wastewater discharges in the basin and considering average
and not slaughter weights for each category of animal in the
livestock emissions inventory, which include secretions from
production of swine, dairy, and meat cattle, as well as fixation
and deposition of N (Bouwman et al. 2009).
Nutrient emissions in the Río Verde basin are described by
source type (Table 1), where it is observed that the main emis-
sions come from diffuse sources, while point sources account
for only 5.17% of total N emissions and 2.99% of total P
emissions. Additionally, livestock activities represent over
75% of total N emissions and more than 96% of total P emis-
sions in the river basin.
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:20497–20509
Fig. 1 Sub-basins of the Río
Verde basin, positions of dams
under construction, location of
sampling stations, and general
information of the watershed
Description of NEWS2
The Global NEWS models are based on calculations that com-
bine empirical and theoretical equations that describe nutrient
transport and attenuation in river basins. A first generation of
the Global NEWS models consisted in different sub-models
that calculate the various forms of nutrients such as N, P,
silicate, and carbon (Beusen et al. 2005; Dumont et al. 2005;
Harrison et al. 2005a, b; Seitzinger et al. 2005). A second
generation (NEWS2) was developed by Seitzinger et al.
(2010), Mayorga et al. (2010), and Harrison et al. (2010),
who integrated the different sub-models in a framework that
shares the same group of input files and integrates the results
in a single output file.
20499
NEWS2 is composed of independently formulated sub-
models that predict annual exports to river basin mouths for
dissolved organic and inorganic as well as particulate forms of
nutrients. NEWS2 highlights the representation of sources and
sinks on soil and in water, transfers of nutrients from land to
rivers, and ultimately to the basin mouth. NEWS2 distin-
guishes point sources, which include wastewater emissions,
and diffuse sources, such as agricultural land uses and natural
ecosystems. The model uses information on nutrient emis-
sions and export coefficients for each source type, and trans-
formations among different forms are calculated by the model
and integrated in transport equations. The model has been
calibrated for more than 5000 basins worldwide, among
others the Grande de Santiago river basin that contains the
20500 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:20497–20509

Table 1 Nutrient emissions by

source type in the Río Verde basin Source type Source N P

(Mg year−1) Percent (Mg year−1) Percent

Point sources Municipal wastewater 1 5060 5.13 1075 2.99

Industries 2 34 0.03 0 0.00
Sub-total 5094 5.17 1075 2.99
Diffuse sources Urban runoff 2 11 0.01 2 0.01
Agricultural runoff 2 447 0.45 103 0.29
Forest runoff 2 67 0.07 5 0.01
Scrub runoff 2 17 0.02 <1 0.00
Pastureland runoff 2 382 0.39 30 0.08
Livestock activities 1 74,335 75.37 34,750 96.62
N fixation 3 11,917 12.08 0 0.00
N atmospheric deposition 3 6359 6.45 0 0.00
Sub-total 93,535 94.83 34,891 97.01
Total 98,629 100.00 35,966 100.00
1
Jayme-Torres (2014)
2
Corzo-Juaréz (2009)
3
Bouwman et al. (2009)

Río Verde basin. The spatial distributions of the model inputs
are generally resolutions of 0.5° and consequently, the appli-
cation of the model is recommended for river basins with areas
over 20,000 km2. The NEWS2 model requires the following
inputs: physical and geophysical properties, hydrology and
climate, and point and diffuse source emissions (Mayorga
et al. 2010).
Model input data
The delimitation, areas, river mouth locations, centroids,
Strahler orders, and dominant slopes of the sub-basins of the
Río Verde watershed were obtained using a digital elevation
model at the 1:50,000 scale (INEGI 2013) and ArcGis 10
(ESRI, Redlands, CA). The sub-basins were organized from
upstream to downstream in the watershed: El Niágara
(5462 km2), Cuarenta (2327 km2), Ajojucar (816 km2), San
Gaspar (2939 km 2 ), La Cuña (7618 km 2 ), and Verde
(1470 km2) (Fig. 1). The compositions of land and water sur-
faces in these sub-basins varied between 95.8 and 99.4%. The
Strahler orders that indicate river branching, related to the
attenuation of nutrients in the river network (Mayorga et al.
2010) varied between 6 and 7, indicating complexity of trib-
utary branching and expected high nutrient attenuations. The
dominant slopes in the sub-basins were between 5.0 and
18.1 m km−1 (Table 2).
Given the Köppen-Geiger climate classification (Kottek
et al. 2006), no part of the basin is classified as tropical humid.
According to the world map of lithology (Amiotte-Suchet
et al. 2003) and the geological map of Mexico (Instituto de
Geología 2000), the lithological class that dominates in the
watershed is volcanic rock. The runoff discharges of the
sub-basins, from 27.0 to 510.0 Mm3 year−1 (Table 2), were
obtained from hydrometric data published in the Mexican
Data Bank for Surface Water (CONAGUA 2011). Currently,
there are no exports of consumptive water from the Río Verde
basin, and therefore no nutrient extraction due to such water
transfers.
Nutrients and suspended solids retention values were cal-
culated based on the depths and residence times in the differ-
ent water bodies located in each sub-basin; these values vary
from 25 to 34% for N (Dumont et al. 2005), from 90 to 93%
for total suspended solids (Beusen et al. 2005), and a constant
value of 85% for P (Harrison et al. 2005b) (Table 2).
Average daily and annual rainfall data were obtained using
data from a climate information extractor (IMTA 2005) and
considering 80 climatological stations in the Río Verde basin
with complete reports in the period from 1990 to 2002; more
recent information has not yet been published. Analyzing the
average rainfall for each sub-basin in this period and using the
Thiessen polygons method (Aparicio-Mijares 2001), annual
rainfalls between 485.5 and 777.1 mm and daily rainfalls be-
tween 2.9 and 4.8 mm were obtained for the different sub-
basins (Table 2).
Since nutrient emissions from wastewater is not directly
available, the volumes of generated wastewater were estimat-
ed based on the amounts of supplied water, by considering the
coverage of drinking water supply (CEA 2008), the typical
amounts of produced wastewater (CONAGUA 1994), the
population data by localities, and the drainage services for
the different sub-basins (INEGI 2013). Typical nutrient con-
centrations in wastewater were obtained from FAO (1992),
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:20497–20509 20501

Table 2 Modeling input data

Group Input El Niágara El Cuarenta Ajojucar San Gaspar La Cuña Verde

Physical Sub-basin mouth location 102°22′30″ 102°22′30″ W 102°22′30″ 102°29′50″ W 102°49′16″ W 102°49′16″
properties W 21°46′45″ N W 21°17′05″ N 21°00′19″ N W
21°46′45″ N 21°46′45″ N 21°00′19″ N
Total area (km2) 5462 2327 816 2939 7618 1470
Land area (%) 99.4 98.5 99.4 95.8 98.5 98.5
Basin order 6 7 6 7 7 7
Biophysical Tropical humid climate (%) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
properties Lithology class 2 6 6 6 6 6 6
Slope (m km−1) 5.0 7.2 5.0 6.7 9.6 18.1
Hydrology and Water flow value (Mm3 year−1) 3 29.3 ± 5.9 27.0 ± 38.5 45.0 ± 46.9 106.4 ± 117.1 510.0 ± 275.6 142.0 ± 91.9
climate Consumptive water (Mm3 year−1) 0 0 0 0 0 0
N retention value (%) 4 25 34 25 30 34 33
P retention value (%) 5 85 85 85 85 85 85
Suspended solids retention value (%) 6 91 93 91 90 93 92
Annual rainfall (mm year−1) 7 485.5 ± 59.9 523.6 ± 144.3 532.5 ± 62.9 592.8 ± 106.5 592.7 ± 118.1 777.1 ± 81.5
Daily rainfall (mm day−1) 7 2.9 ± 0.4 2.9 ± 0.8 3.3 ± 0.4 3.9 ± 0.7 3.9 ± 0.8 4.8 ± 0.5
Point source Wastewater (kg km−2 year−1) 8, 9, 10, 11 N 566.7 N 49.1 N 123.7 N 196.9 N 102.0 N 268.4
emissions P 120.4 P 10.4 P 26.3 P 41.8 P 21.7 P 57.1
Detergents (kg km−2 year−1) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Diffuse source Agriculture land use (%) 12 41.9 36.6 37.0 30.1 38.8 59.0
emissions Grassland land use (%) 12 31.3 42.0 43.6 51.1 42.4 10.2
Livestock activities (kg km−2 year−1) 13, 14, 15, 16, N 1256.6 N 1201.6 N 2676.7 N 6217.6 N 4524.6 N 6630.6
17, 18, 19, 20
P 670.8 P 659.4 P 1501.7 P 2714.5 P 2076.3 P 3082.0
Agriculture (kg km−2 year−1) 12, 21 N 3.6 N 0.3 N 25.8 N 14.00 N 32.1 N 80.9
P 0.8 P 0.1 P 6.0 P 3.2 P 7.4 P 18.7
N fixation in agricultural areas (kg km−2 yr.−1) 22 445.3 445.3 445.3 445.3 445.3 445.3
N fixation in natural areas (kg km−2 yr.−1) 22 664.0 664.0 664.0 664.0 664.0 664.0
N deposition in agricultural areas 490.8 490.8 490.8 490.8 490.8 490.8
(kg km−2 yr.−1) 22
N deposition in natural areas 188.9 188.9 188.9 188.9 188.9 188.9
(kg km−2 yr.−1) 22

1
Kottek et al. 2006
2
Amiotte-Suchet et al. 2003
3
CONAGUA 2011
4
Dumont et al. 2005
5
Harrison et al. 2005b
6
Beusen et al. 2005
7
IMTA 2005
8
CEA 2008
9
CONAGUA 1994
10
INEGI 2013
11
FAO 1992
1
SEMARNAT 2013
13
INEGI 2008a
14
INEGI 2008b
15
INEGI 2008c
16
INEGI 2008d
17
INEGI 2008e
18
Jones and Sutton 2003
19
Taiganides and Sánchez 1996
20
FMVZ 2009
21
Benaman et al. 1996
22
Bouwman et al. 2009
Inputs presented in italics: estimated data based on information from literature
20502
and resulting nutrient emissions from municipal wastewater in
the different sub-basins were found to vary from 49.1 to
566.7 kg km−2 year−1 for N and from 10.4 to
120.4 kg km−2 year−1 for P (Table 2).
The NEWS2 model requires input data for P emissions
due to use of detergents. In our study, this emission was
considered to be part of the wastewater emissions. In ad-
dition, no nutrient removal was considered in existing
wastewater treatment plants because only a fraction of
wastewater in the basin is treated by secondary processes,
with typical removal efficiencies of 20% N and 30% P
(Brown and Atherton 2009). Besides, there are no reports
on the final destination of the generated sewage sludge
that contain the removed nutrients. These are most likely
deposited within the watershed, becoming once more nu-
trient sources (Wang et al. 2014). Therefore, we consid-
ered zero nutrient removal due to wastewater treatment
(Table 2). Using ArcGis 10 (ESRI, Redlands, CA), land
uses were determined for each sub-basin using informa-
tion published by SEMARNAT (2013), resulting in the
following predominant land uses in the sub-basins: be-
tween 30.1 and 59.0% agriculture and between 10.2 and
51.1% grassland (Table 2).
The nutrient emissions from animal waste were estimated
from the livestock inventories for each state in the Río Verde
basin (INEGI 2008a, b, c, d, e); these were multiplied by
nutrient contents reported for waste from bovine cattle
(Jones and Sutton 2003) and swine (Taiganides and Sánchez
1996). Since these emissions are a function of animal weight,
growth curves were obtained for bovine cattle and swine
(Jones and Sutton 2003; FMVZ 2009), resulting in emissions
from 1201.6 to 6630.6 kg km−2 yr.−1 for N, and from 659.4 to
3082.0 kg km −2 yr.−1 for P in the different sub-basins
(Table 2).
To estimate nutrient emissions from agriculture, concentra-
tions in runoffs reported for tropical climates of 1.56 mg L−1
for N and 0.36 mg L−1 for P (Benaman et al. 1996) were used
and multiplied by runoffs, calculated by Jayme-Torres (2014),
resulting in nutrient emissions that vary from 0.3 to
80.9 kg km−2 year−1 for N and from 0.1 to 18.7 kg km−2 year−1
for P in the different sub-basins (Table 2).
Nitrogen fixation and atmospheric deposition were obtain-
ed from Bouwman et al. (2009), who reported N fixations of
445.3 kg km − 2 year − 1 on agricultural areas and of
664.0 kg km−2 year−1 on Bnatural^ (non-agricultural) areas,
while atmospheric depositions of N were 490.8 kg km−2 year.−1
for agricultural areas and 188.2 kg km−2 year−1 for natural
areas.
Uncertainties of the modeled results were estimated by an-
alyzing averages and standard deviations of rainfall values and
water flow.
To evaluate the resulting nutrient loads and load reduction
scenarios, target Bmaximum allowable loads^ (MAL) were
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:20497–20509
defined as the loads that would allow water in the El
Purgatorio dam to conserve mesotrophic state. These MAL
were obtained by multiplying the concentration limits for me-
sotrophic state of 753 μg L−1 for N (OECD 1982) and
39.6 μg L−1 for P (CEPIS 2001), with the average water flow
value at the mouth of the river basin of 5.67 × 108 m3 year−1,
and nutrients retention values calculated based on the depth
and residence time in the El Purgatorio dam with values of
15% for N (Dumont et al. 2005) and 80% for P (Harrison et al.
2005b). These MAL resulted in 502 Mg year−1 for N and 112
Mg year−1 for P.
Analysis of monitoring data
Water flow values, as obtained by the Mexican National Water
Commission (CONAGUA) and using the velocity-area meth-
od, were evaluated for two hydrometric stations: La Cuña
located upstream from the future dam and El Purgatorio locat-
ed at the mouth of the Río Verde basin and adjacent to the
homonym dam (Fig. 1). Average monthly data from these
stations for the La Cuña hydrometric station were available
from 1947 to 2011 and for the El Purgatorio hydrometric
station, from 1990 to 2003 (CONAGUA 2011). Data were
analyzed separately for rainy seasons (from July to October)
and dry seasons (from November to June), because concen-
trations are directly related to water flows (Table 3).
Calculated fluxes were also provided at an annual scale be-
cause it is not possible to split modeled fluxes into seasons,
NEWS2 model describing annual nutrient loads (Ruiz-Castro
2017).
Water quality data were obtained from a total of 18 sam-
pling events between 2002 and 2011 for both monitoring sites,
with eight sampling events during rainy seasons and ten dur-
ing dry seasons. Concentrations of the different N and P spe-
cies had been measured using standard analytical methods
(APHA 1998) and monitoring data were obtained from the
following reports: AyMA Ingeniería y Consultoría (2006)
Updating and characterization of pollution sources in the
Río Verde basin in the state of Jalisco. Guadalajara, Mexico.
Contract no. CEAS-IHSC-ZC-071/2006 (In Spanish), and
AyMA Ingeniería y Consultoría (2011) Monitoring of algal
blooms in the Río Verde basin and the BPurgatorio^ supply
area in the state of Jalisco. Guadalajara, Mexico. Contract no.
UEAS-SA-SC-CI-032/2011 (In Spanish). Total N and P con-
centrations were determined as the sums of their different
species and averaged to obtain site-specific total nutrient con-
centrations for dry and rainy seasons.
Nutrient loads were estimated based on the water flow
values and average nutrient concentrations (Table 3). Error
propagations were carried out by standard procedures
(Lindberg 2000) and presented in the results for mean nutrient
loads and standard deviations.
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:20497–20509 20503

Table 3 Nutrient loads in the El

Purgatorio and La Cuña sites as El Purgatorio La Cuña
calculated from monitored data
Dry season Rainy season Dry season Rainy season

Water flow values (m3 s−1) 4.32 ± 3.35 44.85 ± 17.58 4.04 ± 4.03 50.40 ± 20.66
(n = 112) (n = 56) (n = 520) (n = 260)
Water flow monitoring period 1990–2003 1947–2011
N concentration (mg L−1) 1.01 ± 0.57 5.13 ± 1.70 1.25 ± 0.83 3.65 ± 0.92
(n = 10) (n = 8) (n = 10) (n = 8)
−1
P concentration (mg L ) 0.49 ± 0.30 1.14 ± 0.46 0.59 ± 0.36 1.30 ± 1.14
(n = 10) (n = 8) (n = 10) (n = 8)
Nutrient concentration monitoring period 2002–2011
N load (Mg season−1) 92 ± 88 2420 ± 1242 106 ± 127 1935 ± 931
N load (Mg year−1) 2512 ± 1245 2041 ± 940
P load (Mg season−1) 45 ± 44 538 ± 303 50 ± 59 689 ± 667
P load (Mg year−1) 583 ± 306 739 ± 670

Simulation of nutrient reduction scenarios
To assess nutrient loads that reach the mouth of the Río Verde
basin under different emission reduction scenarios, simula-
tions of emission reductions necessary to reach MAL, nutrient
attenuation by source type, and source location impact were
carried out. These scenarios allow analyzing the influence of
the different nutrient sources and emission locations on the
final loads of N and P that reach the mouth of the Río Verde
basin.
According to the importance of the different nutrient
emissions and in order to reach MAL, four reduction ra-
tios (25, 50, 75, and 90%) were evaluated for three dif-
ferent emission sources: wastewater, agriculture, and live-
stock activities, resulting in 12 scenarios. Besides, the
combination of reductions of 75% of wastewater emis-
sions and 25, 50, 75, and 90% of emissions from live-
stock activities resulted in additional four scenarios.
Reduction scenarios in these nutrient sources have previ-
ously been evaluated in other basins, where sufficient
progress in mitigating environmental impacts of nutrients
was possible only through a combination of emission re-
duction measures (Passy et al. 2016; Leip et al. 2015).
The two lowest nutrient reduction scenarios (25 and 50%)
were evaluated based on experiences of reducing nutrient
loads, where several decades of implementation of various
actions for control resulted in reductions of approximately
50% in nutrient loads to the coastal zones in Denmark
(Kronvang et al. 2014). The two highest nutrient reduction
scenarios (75 and 90%) were analyzed to evaluate reductions
necessary to reach MAL in the mouth of the river basin, since
this is where the El Purgatorio dam is being constructed to
partially supply water to the metropolitan area of the city of
Guadalajara, Mexico. Although these nutrient reductions may
not be easily obtained, these simulations serve as theoretical
indicators of how much nutrient emissions should be reduced
to assure adequate water quality in the mouth of river basins
(Passy et al. 2016).
Likewise, the influence of the location of the sub-basins on
the nutrient loads at the mouth of the Río Verde basin was
assessed, considering the same emission reductions in each
sub-basin equal to the value for the sub-basin with lowest
emission (La Cuña), resulting in six additional scenarios.
This kind of scenarios was aimed at helping to examine the
relative sensitivity in nutrient loads from emission sources at
varying distances from the basin mouth, and their usefulness
have been described by Basnyat et al. (1999).
Therefore, a total of 22 nutrient loads reduction scenarios
were evaluated and for each scenario, the relations between
load/emission reductions in the mouth of the Río Verde basin
were calculated (Table 4).
Results and discussion
Evaluation of modeling results
The nutrient loads at the mouth of the Río Verde basin
(Table 5) are mainly composed of nutrients from the El
Niágara and the La Cuña sub-basins with 26 and 37% of the
N load and 48 and 25% of the P load, respectively. These
loads are mostly influenced by the extensive areas of these
sub-basins with the El Niágara sub-basin covering 26% and
the La Cuña sub-basin, 40% of the river basin’s total area. To
compare these values, the specific nutrient loads were obtain-
ed by dividing loads by the area of each sub-basin. These
values resulted higher for the Verde sub-basin for N, because
of the higher specific emissions of this nutrient by livestock
20504 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:20497–20509

Table 4 Simulated nutrient reduction scenarios for the Río Verde basin

Scenarios Emission reductions Load reductions Load/emission

(Mg year−1) (Mg year−1) reductions (%)

N P N P N P

Emissions reduction by source type

Source type impact 1 Wastewater emissions 25% 1265 269 409 57 32.3 21.2
2 50% 2530 538 798 115 31.5 21.4
3 75% 3795 807 1197 171 31.5 21.2
4 90% 4554 968 1436 206 31.5 21.3
5 Emissions from agricultural use 25% 112 26 3 0 2.7 0.0
6 50% 223 52 6 0 2.7 0.0
7 75% 335 77 8 0 2.4 0.0
8 90% 402 93 10 0 2.5 0.0
9 Livestock emissions 25% 18,584 8688 365 7 2.0 0.1
10 50% 37,167 17,375 730 14 2.0 0.1
11 75% 55,751 26,063 1095 21 2.0 0.1
12 90% 66,901 31,275 1315 25 2.0 0.1
13 75% wastewater emissions 25% 22,379 9495 1562 178 7.0 1.9
14 and varying livestock emissions 50% 40,962 18,182 1927 185 4.7 1.0
15 75% 59,546 26,870 2292 192 3.8 0.7
16 90% 70,696 32,082 2512 196 3.6 0.6
Fixed amounts of nutrient emissions reduction in each sub-basina
Source location impact 17 El Niágara sub-basin 2286 1247 36 5 1.6 0.4
18 Cuarenta sub-basin 2286 1247 43 5 1.9 0.4
19 Ajojucar sub-basin 2286 1247 86 6 3.8 0.5
20 San Gaspar sub-basin 2286 1247 62 6 2.7 0.5
21 La Cuña sub-basin 2286 1247 80 6 3.5 0.5
22 Verde sub-basin 2286 1247 117 7 5.1 0.6
a
101 Mg year−1 of N and 21 Mg year−1 of P for wastewater emissions and 2185 Mg year−1 of N and 1226 Mg year−1 of P emissions from livestock
activities

activities. For P, the El Niágara sub-basin presented highest
specific loads due to the higher specific emissions of P in
wastewater, followed by the Verde sub-basin, where specific
emissions of P are higher for livestock activities (Table 5).
The modeled nutrient loads were compared to monitoring
data from the El Purgatorio and the La Cuña sites (Figs. 2 and
3). For both monitoring sites, it is observed that modeled N
loads are higher and modeled P loads lower than those obtain-
ed by analysis of monitoring data, suggesting that attenuation
calculated by the model is lower for N and higher for P than
the retentions that actually occur in the watershed. Another
possibility is that denitrification may be underestimated in
the case of N, causing higher modeled N loads compared to
monitoring data. For P, the model does not include

Table 5 Modeled results of the

nutrient loads that reach the Sub-basin N load N load Specific N load P load P load Specific P load
mouth of the Río Verde basin (Mg year−1) (%) (Mg year−1 km−2) (Mg year−1) (%) (Mg year−1 km−2)

El Niagara 1040 26 0.190 142 48 0.026

Cuarenta 78 2 0.034 7 2 0.003
Ajojucar 141 4 0.173 7 2 0.009
San Gaspar 550 14 0.187 35 12 0.012
La Cuña 1475 37 0.193 72 25 0.009
Verde 656 17 0.446 32 11 0.022
Total 3940 100 295 100
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:20497–20509
Fig. 2 Comparison of emitted nutrients, monitored, and modeled
nutrient loads at the El Purgatorio site, Jalisco, Mexico
atmospheric deposition of this nutrient, probably causing the
observed underestimation of the modeled P loads as compared
to monitoring data. However, modeled nutrient loads for both
sampling sites were within the standard deviations of those
obtained from analysis of monitored data (Figs. 2 and 3).
Nitrogen load overestimation by NEWS2 is previously re-
ported by McCrackin et al. (2013), who compared modeled N
loads with those obtained using spatially referenced regres-
sions on watershed attributes (SPARROW), a regional-scale
model developed by the US Geological Survey (USGS 2011),
finding that while NEWS2 allocated more than twice as much
N export from manure than SPARROW for the USA as a
whole, attribution to sewage and population-related sources
was consistently higher by SPARROW than NEWS2. Sutton
et al. (2011) state that exact nutrient inputs to watersheds are
not perfectly known and require pursuing monitoring pro-
grams and data integration. Also, the nutrient retention pro-
cesses are still poorly understood. That is why it is possible to
over- or sub-estimate nutrient loads, and the selection of the
best model for nutrient loads estimations should be made on a
case-by-case basis depending on the conditions of the water-
shed, availability of input data, and the model limitations.
It is observed that modeled nutrient loads in the basin are
presently approximately eight times higher than MAL for N of
502 Mg year−1 and three times higher than MAL for P of 112
Fig. 3 Comparison of monitored and modeled nutrient loads at the La
Cuña site, Jalisco, Mexico
20505
Mg year−1. Therefore, the nutrient load reductions needed to
achieve mesotrophic state of water in the mouth of the Río
Verde basin should be at least 87% for N and 62% for P.
Simulation of nutrient load reduction scenarios
Source-dependent nutrient load reductions
The relations nutrient load/emission reduction vary depending
on the type of emission source, with higher values occurring
for reductions in wastewater emissions and lower values for
reductions in emissions from livestock activities and different
land uses (Table 4). This means that nutrients in wastewater
discharges are transported more efficiently to the mouth of the
river basin than the other emissions.
In this way, although nutrient emissions for wastewater
discharges are much lower than for livestock activities
(Table 5), the nutrient load/emission reduction for N is ap-
proximately 32% of the emission reduction for wastewater
and 2% for livestock activities, and the load reduction for P
is approximately 21% for wastewater and 0.1% for livestock
activities. Leip et al. (2015) also reported in a study in
European countries, that major nutrient sources not necessar-
ily produce larger environmental effects. This can be ex-
plained by the effects of retentions occur depending on the
way nutrients are emitted, mobilized, and attenuated in the
river basin. One of the main causes that explain the higher
attenuation of nutrients from livestock activities compared to
wastewater discharges is that the latter is collected and
discharged directly to the river network and therefore only
attenuated in water, while nutrients emitted by livestock activ-
ities are more frequently discharged on land, being attenuated
by both water and soil. This effect has been mentioned by Leip
et al. (2015), who found that most of the net input of nutrients
is maintained in the soil, where it may be considered a benefit
as long as it contributes to fertilizing land.
The differences between nutrient emissions and loads in
the mouth of the Río Verde basin (Fig. 2) are considered as
the attenuated nutrients. These attenuations in the river basin
resulted in a weighted average of approximately 96% for N
and 99% for P. Analyzing these attenuations by individual
emission sources, attenuations from wastewater emissions re-
sulted in 68.3% for N and 78.7% for P, from agriculture, in
97.4% for N and 100% for P, and from livestock activities, in
98.0% for N and 99.9% for P.
The modeled results of the nutrient reduction scenarios
show that reductions in nutrient emissions from wastewater
(scenarios 1–4) and livestock activities (scenarios 9–12) pres-
ent higher efficiencies in reducing N and P loads at the mouth
of the river basin. Also, independently of the amount of emit-
ted N, the wastewater reduction scenarios present similar re-
duced loads at the mouth of the river basin as compared to the
scenarios in livestock activities (Fig. 4). This is not the case for
20506
Fig. 4 Modeled nitrogen loads in
the mouth of the Río Verde basin
under the different emission
reduction scenarios. MAL
maximum allowable load, PNL
present nutrient load
P for which loads in the mouth of the river basin are about
eight times higher for wastewater emissions (scenarios1–4)
compared to livestock activities (scenarios 9–12, Fig. 5). In
the case of reduction of agricultural emissions (scenarios 5–8),
both N and P load reductions are insignificant (Figs. 4 and 5).
Reduction for combined scenarios
Combinations of nutrient emissions as simulated by reducing
emissions from both wastewater and livestock activities (sce-
narios 13–16) reduced more efficiently nutrient loads at the
mouth of the river basin. For the combination of 75% reduc-
tion of nutrients in wastewater emissions and 50% reduction
of nutrient emissions from livestock activities, the resulting
loads at the mouth of the river basin are 2013 Mg year−1 for
N and 110 Mg year−1 for P for scenario 14, which are not
sufficient to reach MAL of 502 Mg year−1 for N but adequate
to reach MAL of 112 Mg year−1 for P (Figs. 4 and 5).
Sub-basin-dependent nutrient load reductions
It also observed that this relation increases as the distance
between the emission source and the mouth of the river basin
decreases, since nutrients emitted from sources located closer
to the mouth of the river basin are transported more efficiently
that those emitted from more remote sources.
Reducing the same amounts of nutrient emissions in each
sub-basin (Table 4) resulted in more efficient load reductions
when applied to sub-basins located closer to the mouth of the
Río Verde basin than for sub-basins located higher upstream.
The load/emission reduction values range from 1.6 to 5.1%
for N and from 0.4 to 0.6% for P, with the highest values
corresponding to the Verde sub-basin, located closest to the
Fig. 5 Modeled phosphorus
loads in the mouth of the Río
Verde basin under the different
emission reduction scenarios.
MAL maximum allowable load,
PNL present nutrient load
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:20497–20509
river mouth, while the lowest values correspond to the more
remote Niágara sub-basin.
Recommendations for preventing eutrophication
Based on the modeling results, the implementation of nutrient
reductions in the river basin should include 90% of P removal
in wastewater treatment, and the resulting sludge with re-
moved P should be reused, confined, or exported from the
river basin to nutrient-deprived areas. This removal of P
may be reduced to 75% in wastewater when combined with
at least 50% reduction of P emissions from animal waste.
According to reports in the literature (Grizzetti et al. 2012,
Passy et al. 2013, Romero et al. 2013), such reductions in P
emissions from wastewater are feasible. Furthermore, Leip
et al. (2015) recommend two main methods to reduce P emis-
sions due to livestock production: (1) reduction of emissions
intensity through modified livestock diets and/or removal and
reuse of nutrients from manure and (2) lower livestock pro-
duction. The second approach would have important social
and economic implications. Therefore, in order to be able to
continue the meat and dairy industries in the river basin, social
actors, governments, and producers should work together to
implement modifications of livestock diets and removal of
nutrients from manure, particularly of P, to be reused in the
river basin or exported to nutrient-deprived areas.
Other nutrient removal scenarios such as change in soil
uses, implementation of wetlands, or natural barriers do not
seem to significantly influence nutrient loads on the basin
scale (Comisión Estatal del Agua Jalisco-Instituto Mexicano
de Tecnología del Agua (2014) Elaboration of a proposal for
the control of nutrient loads in the area of influence of the dam
and pumping system project Purgatory-Arcediano.
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:20497–20509
Guadalajara, Mexico. Contract no. CEA-IMTA-UEAS-002/
2013, In Spanish).
Land application of treated wastewater could be an effec-
tive way to manage and reduce N and P loadings to the river
and consequently to the future reservoir. However, conse-
quences of this practice must be considered such as possible
nutrient accumulation in the soil, percolation of nutrients to
groundwater, cost of infrastructure for conduction of waste-
water, and management of infiltration zones. Manure manage-
ment also presents a risk of pollution if holding facilities fail or
do not function properly. Intensified animal production may
cause too much manure to be produced within a geographic
area to be applied on nearby land without overloading soils
with nutrients (NRC 2000; Sarpley 2000).
Science and technology to improve the effectiveness of
nutrient source controls, both from diffuse and point sources,
must be a high priority in the preventive and rehabilitative
stage of eutrophication assessment and management. This re-
quires intensive scientific research but also placing this re-
search into a watershed context (Boesch 2002). Efforts to
reduce nutrient over-enrichment of ecosystems must include
environmental modeling and monitoring (NRC 2000), partic-
ularly, if these efforts involve controlling multiple sources
within a watershed (NRC 1999).
Conclusions
Nutrient loads were estimated in the mouth of the Río Verde
basin, Mexico, where a dam is being constructed to supply
water to the metropolitan area of the second most populated
city in the country, Guadalajara. Such modeling approach is
necessary to analyze water quality scenarios and management
needs in areas where monitoring data are infrequent and
scarce. Based on a nutrient sources inventory for the Río
Verde basin and application of the NEWS2 model, nutrient
loads were compared to the few monitoring data from two
sites on the river, resulting in modeled loads within the stan-
dard deviations of observed data. We found that the magnitude
of the nutrient loads in the mouth of the river basin is subject
to various factors, and according to the evaluation of different
nutrient emission reduction scenarios, the following order of
influence of these factors could be established as
Attenuation according to source type
¼ Magnitude of emission > Location of the sub−basin
It is observed that, compared to other sources, higher nu-
trient reductions in the river basin occur when emissions are
reduced in wastewater and livestock activities. Although nu-
trient emissions from wastewater are much lower than those
20507
emitted by livestock activities in the Río Verde basin, the
results of nutrient load reductions are similar for N and higher
for P when emission reductions are implemented in wastewa-
ter discharges than for livestock activities. This is because the
attenuation of nutrients generated by wastewater is lower than
for nutrients generated by other activities due to the more
direct discharge of wastewater to the river network.
It is expected to reach the target load or MAL for P but not
for N at the mouth of the Río Verde basin when emissions
from wastewater are reduced by 90% or when emissions from
wastewater are reduced by 75%, and at least 50% of emissions
from livestock activities are diminished. In order to control
eutrophication in the El Purgatorio dam, it is imperative to
reduce loads of P rather than N. We recommend to reduce
these loads at the source, principally by removal of P in waste-
water treatment plants and reduction of nutrients in animal
waste by modification of livestock diets, removal, and reuse
of nutrients from manure.
Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank the Mexican National
Science Foundation for the scholarship awarded to GJT (CONACYT
343490). Also, thanks to Emilio Mayorga, University of Washington;
Óscar Fuentes-Mariles and Vicente Fuentes-Gea, Mexican National
Autonomous University; Carlos Corzo-Juárez, Abel Ruiz-Castro,
Marco A. Mijangos-Carro, and Luis Bravo-Inclán, Mexican Institute of
Water Technology, for providing information and guidance during the
development of this project.
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