Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Relations:
Breaking Out of the Russian Orbit?
Niklas Swanström
Director
Institute for Security and Development Policy
The Central Asian states have been dependent on Russia since they gained
their independence in 1991, not just in economic and energy terms, but also
militarily and politically. In the years after the Central Asian states gained in-
dependence, the Russians largely ignored them, reflecting not just the financial
realities in Russia at the time but also Russia’s lack of interest in its former colo-
nies. Even so, there has always been a large degree of reliance by these countries
on Moscow due in large part to the lack of alternatives and the long-established 101
linkages. Russia bounced back into the region under Putin’s leadership. However,
since 1991 a relative decline in Russian influence had already become clearly
visible. Some have even argued that Russian foreign policy effectively pushed
the Central Asian states away from the imperial embrace and toward real inde-
pendence.1 To what degree this is true is open to discussion, but it is apparent
that the decline of Russian influence has worked to the advantage of China by
increasing its economic leverage in Central Asia and other areas as well.2 Even
though the Central Asian states have to some extent broken out of the Russian
orbit, their level of dependence on Russia (and, more recently, China) continues
to be unhealthy, much to Central Asia’s anguish.
This article will examine how the Central Asian states are increasingly break-
ing out of the orbit of Russia much to the benefit of China. It will also focus on
economic relations, particularly the important energy relationships that Russia
has been trying to control in an effort to dominate the export of oil and gas to
Niklas Swanström is Director of the Institute for Security and Development Policy. His main areas of
expertise are conflict prevention, conflict management, and regional cooperation; Chinese foreign policy
and security in Northeast Asia; and narcotics trafficking and its effect on regional and national security
and negotiations. His focus is mainly on Northeast Asia, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia.
Background
Russia’s role in Central Asia remains a sensitive issue for the Central Asian states
due to Russia’s prolonged history as a colonizer in the region. Russia first took
control of Central Asia by force in the beginning of the 18th century. Thereafter,
Russia successfully disrupted regional identities and existing political structures.
Today the Russian language and, to a large extent, culture are embedded in each
Central Asian state. This, combined with a great distrust and fear between the
Central Asian states and China that dates back to early conflict between China
and the nomadic tribes, makes Russia the natural powerhouse in the region. The
connections at a cultural and linguistic level cannot be overestimated—even if
both the Chinese and English languages are rapidly gaining ground, their level
of penetration does rival the dominance of the Russian language.4 It is apparent
that the elite in Central Asia have a Russian bias culturally, but more importantly,
the connection goes much deeper and affects society at large in Central Asia
with strong cultural, linguistic, and historical connection among all walks of life.
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Russia’s attempt to regain the military, economic, and political clout in what
Russian foreign minister Andrey Kozyrev termed its “near abroad” (ближнее
зарубежье) in the early 1990s has been partially successful, especially in the
energy sector. To accomplish this, Russia has been trying to regain control of
much of the crucial transport infrastructure used for trade and the oil and gas
industry. Moreover, military cooperation between Russia and the Central Asian
states continues to be high; no other country approaches the level of security
cooperation that Russia has had with the region. In other areas, such as trade in
general, Russia’s position remains secondary to that of China, much to Russia’s
chagrin.5 China has taken a much larger role in the economic sector since 1991
and is since 2010 the largest trading partner with Central Asia (€23 billion)
after the EU (€21 billion) according to European Commission statistics.6 Tak-
ing into account the consumer goods that are not reported the picture is even
more accentuated, the World Bank estimates that China controls some 93–95
percent of the US$7 billion Bazaar trade.7 This is not entirely to the liking of
the Central Asian population at large, which has often clashed with the Chinese
traders whom they considered to have taken control over the economic sector
in their native states.
Moscow’s role in Central Asia is not just a question of trade figures and of-
In the energy field, the success of regional attempts has been limited. Despite
some serious Russian efforts to coordinate energy relations, the Central Asian
states have vigorously resisted, often with the tacit support of China and Iran.
Nevertheless, Russia has been important in the energy sector, largely due to its
earlier monopoly over oil and gas transit routes. However, Russia’s monopoly in
the energy sector has ended and today the situation is much more diverse—in
terms of buyers, sellers, and transport—than it has ever been.
Russian trade with Central Asia has significantly decreased relative to other
actors over time. This has especially been the case since 2007 when the trade
decline accelerated as financial crisis hit the international community.15 China
has been able to offer commodities of equal or better quality at a substantially
lower price compared to those produced in Russia. Today the volume of Chinese
trade—even taking weapons sales and the energy sector into account—is roughly
10 to 15 percent larger than the Russian volume of trade, according to various
and greatly differing estimates.16 The same trend is apparent when considering
loans to the Central Asian states. Foreign governments have promised a great deal
to the Central Asian governments from foreign states, but relatively few loans
108 have been implemented. This is a product of both a lack of engagement and the
failure of the Central Asian governments to fulfill the terms of the agreements.
China has also emerged in this capacity as the primary actor and over time it
has become apparent that Russia simply does not have the economic strength
to back its promises. The reduced level of trade with Russia is due to the simple
fact that many of the potential exports from Russia to Central Asia are similar
and lack complementary goods.
This picture of Russian failure is flawed, however, because Russia is still
crucial in some of the key industries, especially in the energy sector. Russia has
been eager to continue to controlling exports from the Central Asian states—
not because Moscow needs the extra oil and gas imports but rather because it
wants to re-export the petroleum for a profit. The Central Asian energy market
has in fact sustained the Russian market with low-cost energy while sales to
Europe are made at much higher prices. For example, Russia imports gas from
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan at prices as low as $100 per 1,000 cubic meters,
but Russia sells gas of the same quality for as much as $250 per 1,000 cubic
meters in the West.17 This is a trend that has neither benefitted the producers nor
consumers. As a result, Central Asian governments have chaffed at this policy,
as these governments have realized the potential benefit of avoiding Russia as a
Notes
1. Dmitri Trenin, “What Russian Empire?” New York Times, August 23, 2011; Dmitri Trenin, “The
Russian Empire is Gone for Good,” Globalist, May 7, 2012.
2. Niklas Swanström, “Transformation of the Sino–Russian Relationship: From Cold War to the Putin
Era,” in Eurasia’s Ascent in Energy and Geopolitics: Rivalry or Partnership for China, Russia, and Central Asia?,
ed. Robert Bedeski and Niklas Swanström (London: Routledge, 2012).
3. “The Next Stage of Russia’s Resurgence: Central Asia,” Stratfor, February 11, 2012, http://www.
stratfor.com/sample/analysis/next-stage-russias-resurgence-central-asia.
4. Jos Boonstra, “Russia and Central Asia: From Disinterest to Eager Leadership,” FRIEDE, October
2008, http://www.fride.org/publication/519/russia-and-central-asia:-from-disinterest-to-eager-leadership.
5. James Brooke, “China Displaces Russia in Central Asia,” Voice of America, June 15, 2010.
6. The trade statistics are notoriously unreliable and each country has their own figures that differ from
the other statistics. See, Niklas Swanström, China and Greater Central Asia: New Frontiers (Stockholm:
Silk Road Papers, Institute for Security and Development Policy, 2011).
7. Bartlomiej Kaminski and Saumya Mitra, Borderless Bazaars and Regional Integration in Central Asia
(Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 2012).
8. “Russia’s Interests in Central Asia Not to Be Ignored,” RT, April 13, 2011, http://rt.com/politics/
russias-interests-foreign-ministry.
9. Sebastien Peyrouse, The Russian Minority in Central Asia: Migration, Politics, and Language, Ken-
112 nan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Occasional Paper No. 297 (2008), 4.
10. Institute for War and Peace Reporting, Twilight World of Central Asian Migrants, April 27, 2011,
http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/docid/4dbfa43bc.html.
11. “Tajikistan’s Lack of Private Business Unsustainable,” ADB, Eurasianet, April 12, 2012, http://
www.eurasianet.org/node/65261.
12. Konstatin Parshin, “Tajikistan: Moscow Trying to Send Dushanbe into Nosedive,” Eurasianet
November 15, 2011, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64516.
13. Robert Bedeski and Niklas Swanström, eds. Eurasia’s Ascent in Energy and Geopolitics: Rivalry or
Partnership for China, Russia, and Central Asia? (London: Routledge, 2012).
14. Joshua Kucera, “Russia: Moscow Strives to Clarify Vision for Central Asian Alliance,” Eurasianet,
September 30, 2011, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64248.
15. Swanström, China and Greater Central Asia, 45.
16. The figures differ greatly between different statistics, but the trend is evident in all statistical analysis:
Russia is declining in a relative perspective and greatly to the favor of China.
17. Scott Frickenstein, “The Resurgence of Russian Interests in Central Asia,” Air and Space Power
Journal (Air Force Research Institute, Spring 2010): 67–74.
18. Robert Cutler, “Trans-Caspian Pipeline Pact to Energize EU Gas Project,” Asia Times, March 23,
2012, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/NC23Ag02.html; Pepe Escobar, “Russia Rules Pipli-
neistan”, Asia Times, March 23, 2012, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/NC23Ag04.html.
19. Catherine Fitzpatrick, “Turkmenistan Asks for Help in Building East–West Pipeline,” Eurasianet,
November 21, 2011, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64550.
20. Stephen Blank, “The Strategic Importance of Central Asian: An American View,” Parameters 38,
no. 1 (Spring 2008); Frickenstein, “Resurgence of Russian Interests,” 67–74.
21. “The Next Stage of Russia’s Resurgence: Central Asia,” Stratfor, February 11, 2012, http://www.
stratfor.com/sample/analysis/next-stage-russias-resurgence-central-asia.
22. “Tajikistan: Russia Uses Energy to Elicit Security Concessions,” Stratfor, September 14, 2011.
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