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This article covers the many forms of child abuse, how each form impacts
a child's mental and physical well-being, and discusses how childhood
trauma can be treated.
If you are a victim of child abuse or know someone who might be, call
or text the Childhelp National Child Abuse Hotline at 1-800-422-4453
to speak with a professional crisis counselor.
Signs of Neglect
Poor hygiene
Improper clothing during the seasons
Lack of access to medical care
Worsening medical conditions
Poorly-tended wounds
Hair loss
Malnutrition
Low weight
Physical Abuse
This form of abuse refers to the deliberate physical harm of a child by
parents or caregivers. Physical abuse a ects around 18% of maltreated
children, [4] and is a leading cause of child deaths—homicide falling in
second for the loss of infant lives younger than one. [4]
A child is also at a higher risk of physical abuse where they live with a
disability or are under the care of an unmarried mother. [1]
Emotional Abuse
This form of abuse may not always have the immediately apparent signs
of physical harm but is no less painful.
Sexual Abuse
Sexual abuse refers to the forceful participation of children in sexual acts.
It may also involve forcing a child to engage in sexual acts that they do
not fully understand. This abuse may also force children to engage in
sexual acts that they do not fully understand.
Neglect
This is the failure of a caregiver/parent to meet the most basic needs of a
child. It is the most common form of child abuse where approximately
two-thirds of reports to child protective services are made over concerns
of child neglect. [8]
Neglect takes many forms and can be observed where a child is not taken
for regular doctor appointments, or is denied access to healthcare by a
caregiver.
This form of abuse is also apparent where a child is not given the right
nutritional care, or when children are exposed to harmful substances like
drugs. [8]
Impact of Neglect
A child left without the useful tools and care for proper development may
perform poorly in school. This child is also likely to display emotional and
behavioral problems as a result of their abandonment.
Later di culties in life like liver and heart disease may also be traceable
to poor treatment received in childhood. [8]
Children that have been physically abused should then be stabilized, with
examinations carried out to determine the extent of the ill-treatment
endured.
Therapy is useful for addressing the issues linked with abuse and neglect.
It is also necessary to teach a child appropriate behaviors for adult-child
relationships. Therapy can also provide a support system for poorly
treated children. [9]
10 Sources
By Elizabeth Plumptre
Elizabeth is a freelance health and wellness writer. She helps brands
craft factual, yet relatable content that resonates with diverse
audiences.
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Children's are the future of a nation as they are the ones who will take the country in the track of progress and
prosperity but in present scenario the crime rate against the builders of the nation i.e. "children" are increasing
day by day. They are being forcefully indulged in various activities such as tra cking, begging, they are being
sold just for the sake of money, and are being killed also.
Sexual o ence against the children is a very serious crime which not only a ects them physically but also, they
are mentally a ected. This article deals with the various o ences against the children including the sexual
o ences. It also focuses on various case laws for better understanding. Though various laws are being made in
order to protect the future of our country but still they are not safe, as in the year 2016-2017 there was an
increase in the crime rate up to 20%. It is the need of the hour to rethink on the present law in order to
prevent the crime against the children.
Introduction
Since ages, children have been the victims of the one abuse or the other. Though it is highly unbelievable that,
where we consider children's to be the future of our nation but it would not be wrong to say that they have
been neglected a lot. The crimes which are committed against children are not restricted to any speci c gender
or age group, rather it happens because of their incapability to appreciate the nature of the o ences which are
being committed against them and their consequences thereof, which ultimately makes them a soft target of
the o ender. It is due to their inherent innocence and maturity which are usually related to a children's age
make them an o ender's favorite victim.
Various o ences are being conducted against children, they are either being sold, enslaved, exploited,
physically abused and are killed too. And this victimization starts before the birth of a child itself.
For example, foeticide, gender determination of foetus and causing the miscarriage and if it is found to be a
girl child then she is being killed in the mother's womb itself. This practice is going since ages and with the
technological development, the act has been done, though various laws have been made but still in some parts
of the country they are still in existence.
Not only this, there are several other o ences that a child is victim of. These o ences are, child tra cking, sex
tourism, incest, child rape, child pornography, devadasi system, and prostitution.
Though, India with the second largest child population in the world and there are certain provisions that are
being made for the protection of children, but still the crime rate against the builder or future of our nation is
increasing day by day. There is a need to prevent these acts with the help of stricter laws.
Following are the crimes that are being committed against children and they are as follows:
Child Abandonment: - it occurs when a parent, guardian or a person in charge of a child either deserts a child
without any regard for the child's safety or welfare of the child and without considering child's physical health.
It includes:
Unwillingness in providing the care, support or supervision for the child
Abandoning an infant in a trash cans or at the road side or leaving at some other doorsteps.
Being absent from the home for a particular time period, which creates a substantial risk of serious
nature to a child left in the home.
Making only less e orts to support and communicate with the abandoned child
Statutory Rape or Sexual Assault: - It refers to sexual relations with someone below the "age of consent" i.e.
not in a state of understanding the concept of consent. In such cases individuals are too young to give the
consent and it ultimately results into child molestation.[1]
Sexual abuse and exploitation: - According to the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), every 15 minutes a
child is sexually abused in India. And the crime rate is increasing day by day. [2]
Replay
Child sexual abuse also known as child molestation is a form of child abuse, where an adult uses the child for
sexual stimulation. It includes engaging a child in sexual activities, indecent exposure, child grooming, child
sexual exploitation or including a child to produce child pornography.[3] Molestations and rapes are not solely
restricted to any gender at present. A child irrespective of its gender can be exposed to sexual o ences such as
molestation or rape. Such o ences might be committed by some outsiders but it is also committed by a family
member, school teacher, friend, house help etc.
Generally, a child fails to comprehend the severity of the nature of the act due to lack of knowledge. Or
sometimes, even the child is going through this pain but the child stays silent due to the threats given from the
perpetrators, or sometimes the family advises them to be silent for the purpose of maintaining the so-called
family honour. There has been an increase in the sexual o ences against a child and the majority of the cases
do not get reported as the family members are concerned with their family honour or the reputation.
Cruelty:
Basically, cruelty is any act or omission which in icts mental or physical harm upon an individual, irrespective
of the age, gender, mental capacity etc.
Yelling at a child just to scare him or her can amount to cruelty. Our society feels that 'spare the rod shall spoil
a child'. Society is of view that unless parents or guardian behaves like a martinet with a child, such child shall
never be capable of being disciplined in life. Even educational institutions have the impression that physical
punishment for mistakes is the sole way of inducing discipline within a child. But in present scenario, cruelty
towards child in educational institutions has seen a decline due to strict legislative enactments. But the
domestic abuse of children goes on unaddressed as they are unaware of their rights. Therefore, cruelty has
become an accepted notion.
Intoxicating a Child: - Children who fall prey to such kinds of racket, are sometimes forced to consume
intoxicants such as alcohol, drugs, cigarettes etc. so that it becomes easier for the people i.e. the racket leader
to control them and they can in order to ful l their greed, they can force the children to do any kind of
unlawful activities.
Child pornography: - It refers to the inducing or coercing a child or indulging a child in sexually explicit acts and
recording them. Such inducing acts can be done by tempting a minor through monetary or some other means.
Child pornography is banned in all nations and pornographic websites are strictly directed for removal of any
kind of such content which involves a child in it.
Among crime against children, kidnapping and abduction continued to be the most prevalent in nature.
Around 42 % of the total 1,29,032 cases of crime were being reported. Apart from that, the other major crime
against children include violation of the protection of children from sexual o ences (POCSO) Act, rape, sexual
assault and procuring of minor girls.[4]
The e ects of child sexual abuse include depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, as well as some
physical injuries. Though physical injuries can be healed with the passage of time but it takes time to heal with
the mental injuries.
Generally, in most of the cases the o ender is acquainted with victim. And around 30% of the abuse on
children is being done by the family members itself (relatives).
In the eyes of law, any sexual activity is done with the child then it constitutes a criminal o ence i.e. if any of
such activity is done on a child below the age of 18 years then it is considered as a crime against children. As
they are too young and immature to make such kind of decisions.
Possibly, there are many reasons for crimes against children. Few of them are mentioned below:
Poverty:
Poverty is the main reason which forces many people to choose the path of crime and somehow,
children are the preys to these crimes. Sometimes, due to the problem of poverty parents often sell their
own children just for the sake of money, in the hands of criminal minded people and then they have to
face the various crimes.
Society:
Well, society is equally responsible for the increase in crime rate against children. People who indulge
children in such heinous o ences, and people who overlook the crimes taking place etc. are all equally
responsible for the current scenario. And another area of concern is the dramatic increase in the rape
incidents, which is also a serious issue.
Internet:
Internet has played a major role in increasing the crime rate against children, as a lot of inappropriate
stu is being provided over there which somehow a ects the mentality of an individual. So, more care
and stricter measures must be taken so that these types stu s do not reach the non-desirable
audiences.
Television:
Television has somehow changed the mind set of people. As the crime shows which are being aired on
television. They have their pros and cons. Where somehow, it focuses on how to be safe and what all is
going in the society, whereas on the other hand, it provides people with criminal mind the new ideas as
how to prey kids.
Apart from this there are various other o ences that are mentioned under IPC and Special and Local laws (SLL)
and they are as follows:
Abetment of suicide of child (sec 305)
Infanticide (sec 315)
Exposure and abandonment of child under12 years, by parent or person having care of it (sec 317 IPC),
Procuration of minor girls (sec 366A)
Importation of girls from foreign country, below the age of 18 years (sec 366-B)
Selling of minors for prostitution (sec 372)
Buying of minors for prostitution (sec 373) [6]
There are certain constitutional provisions which deal with the rights of children, they are as follows:
Article 24- it states that child below the age of 14 years shall not be employed to work in factory or a mine nor
shall be engaged in any kind of hazardous work'
Article 39(f)- it makes obligatory for the state to direct its policy towards securing that children are given
opportunities and facilities to develop in a healthy environment and in conditions of freedom and dignity and
that childhood and youth are protected against exploitation and against moral and material abandonment
Article 45- states that, free and compulsory education to all children upto the age of 14 years.[8]
Though various laws are being made by the legislation and various rights are being provided to the children
but still the crime against them is increasing. It has been seen that the main reason of these o ences against
children could be poverty and illiteracy. As they have played an important role for the exploitation of children,
in order to earn their meal for the day. It ultimately results into their sexual exploitation. Though certain laws
have been implemented for the protection of the children but still improvement is still required, as in the year
2016-2017 there was an increase in the crime rate of upto 20%.
Due to such o ences not only a child's physical health gets a ected but they are being mentally a ected too.
And due to this, there is an impact of o ences against children on society.
Children are so innocent in nature, that their innocence can be easily misused by others, which leaves an
unforgettable impression on their lives as well as on their family members. When such kind of o ences is
being committed against children, there is a threat in the minds of people living in the society and it also leaves
an impact on the parent's psychology. Because, in a country like India where a normative structure like
socialization plays quite signi cant role in one's life.
Here, people have to su er a lot because of the crime which not only destroy their social conditions merely by
labeling perspective. Though, govt. has implemented various laws and policies in order to protect children by
assuring them some rights and that are being mentioned above.
Replay
Earlier there was no separate legislation for the protection of rights of children but with the increasing rate of
grave sexual o ences against them and low rate of conviction, there was a need for the separate legislation.
So, the Protection of Children from Sexual O ence Act,2012 (POCSO) was enacted to protect the children from
various types of sexual o ences and to establish Special Court for providing speedy disposal of cases.
O ences against children (Prevention) Bill, 2005 was an attempt to address the issue of child abuse. It mainly
focuses on the rights and remedies available to them. It also includes instances of sexual abuse which includes
touching a child directly or indirectly with sexual intent. It also includes the provisions of enhanced punishment
for abuse of trust and for those individuals who were previously convicted for child sexual abuse.
Conclusion
Rapid increase in the crime rate indicates that children are no longer safe neither at home nor outside. We
consider them to be the future of our country but still they belong to the most vulnerable section of the
society. There are laws that are being made for their protection and even the constitution also guarantees
certain rights to the children but still there is a need to think about the consequences of o ences against
children.
Children are victimizing due to many factors which not only a ects the child's mental state but also a ects
them physically. They may cure physically but the psychological trauma may remain which ultimately impact
on child's future. The roots of all o ences thus can be traced to their immaturity and weakness, physical as
well as mental.
They bear all this from their procreation till their adulthood. The rigid law and criminal justice, as well as law
agencies are taking over all the challenges to prevent the o ences against children. Society and community
play a major role in the prevention of o ences against children so, it is also the duty and the responsibility of
the society members to ght against this social evil while taking into consideration the morality and the human
values.
The law, as of now, already enshrines stringent punishments which are to be imposed against those who
commit any kind of o ence or crime against children, such punishments with time requires a higher degree of
severity so as to prevent and deter the perpetrators from committing such o ence.
Suggestions:
As mentioned above, poverty can be the main reason to choose the path of crime and also due to
poverty and lack of education parents are ignorant towards their children rights. So, they must be made
aware of child rights, must demand for it and also ght to obtain for the same.
There is a need to develop a national, child-centered, integrated, multidisciplinary and time bound
strategy to address violence against children and these multidisciplinary child professionals should work
together and monitor the government e orts in protecting the child rights.
If parents are unable to provide proper care and protection, then it shall be the responsibility and
accountability of the government, elected representatives, policy makers, NGO'S to look after the same.
Government must invest in law enforcement and should enact an explicit legal ban on violence against
children backed by e ective enforcement.
Strict implementation and enforcement of laws are required in order to protect them.
There is a need to generate social awareness among people and also to enhance legislation and
nurturing action towards ending violence, sexual abuse and exploitation of children.
Books Referred:
Indian Penal Code, 1860 (Prof. T Bhattacharya)
Constitution of India,1950 (bare act)
POCSO Act, 2012
O ences against children (prevention) bill,2005
Juvenile justice (care and protection),2015
End-Notes:
1. https://criminal. ndlaw.com/criminal-charges/crimes-against-children.html(last seen 13th nov 2020
08:00AM)
2. https://www.ourbetterworld.org/story/breaking-silence-child-sexual-abuse?gclid=CjwKCAjw8-
78BRA0EiwAFUw8LEf_fzQYRBfBJc7zhECVD26mfWXgqIzU6C29A1ZoMQze7l2-IN25LRoCTXsQAvD_BwE (last
seen 30th oct 2020 11:25 AM)
3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_sexual_abuse (last seen 13th nov 2020 08:00 AM)
4. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/national/crimes-against-children-rise-by-20-per-cent-cry-
report/article30084689.ece(last seen 11th nov 2020 11:02 PM)
5. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40484.pdf (last seen 11th nov 2020 11:30 PM)
6. https://www.latestlaws.com/bare-acts/central-acts-rules/children-laws/legal-provision-related-children/
(last seen 13th nov 2020 08:53 AM)
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Replay
by Maria Konnikova
Maria Konnikova is the author of Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes
(2013) and the The Confidence Game (2016). She is a columnist for The New Yorker
online and lives in New York.
I don’t remember how old I was when I had my first encounter with pornography,
but I must have been around 10 – the experience is entwined with the sound of
the AOL dial-up tone. It was something relatively benign – a close-up photo of
some genitalia – and I wasn’t much shocked. I grew up in a family not given to
sugarcoating the realities of the human condition and I’d known what to expect.
But what if I’d grown up a decade or so later, when the internet had graduated
beyond the old-school chatrooms and into the ubiquitous juggernaut of today?
My memory might have been decidedly different.
Wilson’s talk has had approximately 4.6 million views – and its popularity heralds
a new movement in pornography consumption: NoFap. ‘Fap’ comes from
Japanese manga porn, where it is a sound effect for masturbation. NoFap is a
move away from masturbation, and the pornography that so often forms its
backdrop. e rationale derives from a version of Wilson’s argument: when you
are constantly bombarded with heightened sexual stimuli, your virility is
undermined. Your ability to communicate with real sexual beings collapses. You
become isolated – porn, after all, is a solitary pursuit – and your emotional
wellbeing plummets. Refrain from those stimuli, and from acting on them, and
you will find yourself rejuvenated and your sexual powers reawakened, your
emotional equilibrium restored and your happiness rising. When Wilson’s talk
was first released, the self-styled ‘Fapstronauts’ numbered approximately 7,000.
Today, there are more than 150,000.
Do any of these criticisms hold water? It would be nice to know. Reliable statistics
about pornography are notoriously difficult to obtain – many people underreport
their own habits, and many porn companies are loath to share any sort of
viewership statistics. But according to ongoing research by Chyng Sun, a
professor of media studies at New York University (NYU), the numbers are high
and rising quickly. She estimates that 36 per cent of internet content is
pornography. One in four internet searches are about porn. ere are 40 million
(and growing) regular consumers of porn in the US; and around the world, at any
given time, 1.7 million users are streaming porn. Of the almost 500 men Sun
surveyed in one of her studies, only 1 per cent had never seen porn, and half had
seen their first porn film before they’d turned 13. Cindy Gallop, the founder of the
website Make Love Not Porn, told me recently that, in the past six months, the
average age when children are first exposed to pornography dropped from eight
to six. It wasn’t a deliberate seeking. Online pornography is now so widespread
that it’s easier than ever to ‘stumble’ on it.
In 1969, Denmark became the first country to legalise pornography. In the years
that followed, onlookers watched with interest and trepidation: what would
happen to Danish society? As it turns out, nothing – or rather, nothing negative.
When in 1991 Berl Kutchinsky, a criminologist at the University of Copenhagen
who spent his career studying the public effects of pornography, analysed the
data for more than 20 years following legalisation, he found that rates of sexual
aggression had actually fallen. Pornography was proliferating, but the sexual
climate seemed to be improving. e same thing happened, he found, in Sweden
and West Germany, which followed Denmark’s legalisation campaign.
What’s more, it doesn’t seem to be the case that people become desensitised to
pornography, in the sense that the more you watch it, the more extreme your
viewing content needs to become. When Prause and the psychologist James Pfaus
of Concordia University in Quebec recently measured sexual arousal in 280 men,
they found that watching more pornography actually increased arousal to less
explicit material – and increased the desire for sex with a partner. In other words,
it made them more, not less responsive to ‘normal’ cues, and more, not less,
desirous of real physical relationships. In a 2014 review, Prause likened
pornography addiction – the notion that, like a drug, the more you watch, the
more, and higher doses, you crave – to the emperor who has no clothes: everyone
says it’s there, but there is no actual evidence to support it.
Prause has also studied the question of relationship satisfaction more directly: did
watching pornography negatively impact the quality of sexual intimacy? Working
with the psychologist Cameron Staley of Idaho State University in 2013, she
asked 44 monogamous couples to watch pornography alone and together, to see
how it would affect feelings about their relationship. After each viewing session,
the couples reported on their arousal, sexual satisfaction, perception of
themselves, and their partner’s attractiveness and sexual behaviour. Prause and
Staley found that viewing pornography increased couples’ desire to be with their
significant other, whether they’d seen the film alone or together. Pornography also
increased their evaluation of their own sexual behaviour.
I n the past decade, experimental approaches such as Prause’s have finally started
to grow in number – and for the most part, their conclusions cast doubt on the
perceived social wisdom of pornography’s detrimental impact. As part of the
2002 Swiss Multicenter Adolescent Survey on Health, more than 7,500 16- to 20-
year-olds were asked about their exposure to online pornography (over three-
quarters of the males and 36 per cent of the females had viewed internet porn in
the past month) and then measured on a variety of behaviours and attitudes. e
researchers found no association between viewing explicit material and then
going on to behave in more sexually risky ways. A 2012 review of studies that,
since 2005, have looked at the effects of internet porn on adolescents’ social
development and attitudes found that the prevailing wisdom that pornography
leads to unrealistic sexual beliefs, more permissive attitudes and more
experimentation is not founded on replicable research. ‘ e aggregate literature
has failed to indicate conclusive results,’ the authors conclude in the journal
Sexual Addiction and Compulsivity.
Indeed, in another study earlier this year, Hald and the psychologist Neil
Malamuth of UCLA looked at the relationship between negative attitudes toward
women and pornography use. ey found that there was, in fact, a link – but only
if a person was already low on a scale of so-called agreeableness. ose results
came as no surprise: in 2012, they, along with the clinical psychologist Mary Koss
of the University of Arizona, found that the only time pornography viewing was
associated with attitudes that condoned any form of violence against women was
in men already at high risk of sexual aggression. When they summarised the data
that preceded their work, they wrote that negative effects ‘are evidence only for a
subgroup of males users, namely those already predisposed to sexual aggression’.
e negative behaviours we blame on pornography, in other words, might have
emerged no matter what; porn is perhaps more symptom than cause.
It’s a message that new research is increasingly supporting. Earlier this year, a
group from VU University Amsterdam in the Netherlands attempted to
disambiguate cause and effect in relationship satisfaction: did frequent
pornography viewing cause people to drift apart – or was it the result of their
having drifted apart already? For three years, the psychologist Linda Muusses and
her colleagues tracked just under 200 newlywed couples, as part of a broader
study on marriage and wellbeing. At regular intervals, both members of every
couple were asked about their use of ‘explicit internet material’, as well as their
happiness with the relationship and their sexual satisfaction. e happier men
were in relationships, they found, the less pornography they watched. Conversely,
more viewing predicted lower happiness a year later. It was a self-reinforcing
cycle: get caught in a good one, with a satisfied relationship, and porn was a non-
issue. But lose satisfaction, watch more porn, and realise your relationship is
further disintegrating.
Muusses and her colleagues also noticed that higher levels of pornography use at
the start of a relationship did not predict a less sexually satisfying experience later
on, for men or women. ‘Our findings suggest that it is implausible that SEIM
[sexually explicit internet material] causes husbands to contrast their sexual
experiences and partner’s attractiveness with their SEIM experiences with long-
lasting effects,’ the authors wrote.
W hy, then, does the disconnect persist between theory, opinion and social
sentiment, on the one hand, and empirical research, on the other? Part of the
problem stems from the difficulty of saying exactly what pornography actually is.
e deeper I ventured into the world of pornography, online or not, speaking with
producers, viewers, distributors, the stars themselves, the more I realised how
misplaced the very premise of that framing was: there isn’t a monolithic
‘pornography’, just like there isn’t a monolithic ‘Hollywood film’. When we go to
the cinema, there are dramas and comedies, horror and sci-fi, thrillers and
romantic romps – movies to suit any mood, any taste, any occasion. e
experience and effects of each differ. We don’t emerge from Selma in the same
frame of mind as we do from When Harry Met Sally. But while we understand that
implicitly when it comes to mainstream cinema, we don’t see pornography with
the same level of nuance. ‘We cherry-pick the worst, most aggressive examples,’
said the media researcher Chyng Sun.
I heard the same refrain over and over, from every researcher and every member
of the pornography industry I spoke with: pornography is to sex as Hollywood
films are to real life. Pornography is fantasy, pure and simple. And just as any
fantasy can be channelled in any direction, so too can pornography. ere are bad
fantasies – Sun’s ‘worst, most aggressive examples’, just as there are good
fantasies, instances of pornography that should pass any feminist’s muster, both
in terms of quality and the ethical standards of filming. As Coyote Amrich of
Good Vibrations, an adult retailer in San Francisco (one of the oldest such
retailers in the country) puts it: ‘Just like not everyone is a Bernie Madoff in
finance, not every person involved in porn is this terrible person. Some are really
great and have allowed incredible content and have been supportive of male and
female performers, and help people make great careers.’
at short description goes to the heart of what makes pornography the kind of
fantasy we can feel good about versus the kind we should actively question. It’s
not a question of content but rather one of ethics, where the number-one criterion
is the treatment of the actors. ‘Are the women enjoying themselves and having
authentic pleasure as far as we can tell? Are the other people in the scene with
them not saying debasing things to them or, if they are, is it clear that it’s wanted
– yes, I want you to call me a slut, so call me a slut?’ Amrich explained. It matters
little what acts are being performed or how; we shouldn’t be quick to dismiss
something as bad just because we, personally, don’t think anyone could possibly
enjoy it. What matters is that the people performing these acts enjoy their
performance. As Jamie Martin, who previously worked with Amrich at Good
Vibes, put it: ‘If it’s not hurting anyone, and someone is going to get off on it, why
not?’
Amrich refuses to stock any films where the ethical treatment of actors isn’t
completely clear, a stance I saw from multiple buyers, distributors and retailers.
Increasingly, people insist that the product they host on their site or bring to their
customers comes from a place of clear desire. Not all porn is created equal. ‘We
need to move past the notion that a female performer is a victim. It’s antiquated,’
Amrich says. ‘It doesn’t acknowledge female power, pleasure, women taking
control of sexuality. It only serves the idea that a woman who is sexual is being
taken advantage of.’
Jiz Lee, recognised as one of the leading modern genderqueer adult performers,
has been in the industry for more than 10 years, and says ethical pornography is a
priority. e single biggest marker of such porn is that it costs the consumer
something. ‘By paying for it, it’s a guarantee,’ Lee told me, taking a break from
shooting with the director Shine Louise Houston. ‘Otherwise, it can be hard to tell
if it was ethically shot. Paying helps insure it, and helps the company be in good
standing.’ ese days, they point out, the internet doesn’t just function as a way to
distribute pornography; it’s a way of gauging quality and blacklisting those sites
that don’t meet certain standards. ‘I won’t work for a company that has a poor
record or is exploitative,’ Lee says. ‘And I will tell everybody else.’
Already, certain movements are trying to do just that. Jessica Cooper helps run
ScrewSmart, a sex-education collaborative in Philadelphia that aims to foster
open dialogue about sexual pleasure. e group meets with students, hosts
workshops, discusses porn and its role openly and honestly. ‘One of the biggest
issues for sexuality in general is permission,’ Cooper told me. ‘People want
permission to like things they like, want what they want. We are giving them
permission to say yes. Your desires are valid, sexuality is important, what you
want to do is not wrong. Porn does that, especially to women. ey need to be
told, I’m not an evil, weird creature for enjoying this.’
Other programmes are starting with even younger children – an important step
given the ever-earlier pornography exposure that might otherwise seep through
unexplained. In Norway, Line Jansrud, the presenter of Newton, an educational
show on state TV, gives herself a hickey with a vacuum cleaner, kisses a tomato
and uses a lubricated dildo on an anatomically correct doll model. She wants to
explain how real sex works, so that children and adolescents can distinguish
Hollywood from real life. Her target audience: third-graders.
e effects of this social change reach far beyond sexual education as such. ‘We’re
missing important therapeutic effects of using erotica because of taboos,’ Prause
says. ‘Aroused states and orgasms do really nice things for the brain and body.’
Erotica can, for some women, be the mythical Viagra that has thus far gone
missing, a way of empowering them and ‘putting their brain in that mode, helping
it do what it’s been programmed to do’. ere is certainly a desire for it, albeit
largely unspoken in normal circumstances: when Prause’s group placed an ad for
one of their recent studies, the response broke their phone lines. ey had to take
it offline. ere is also evidence that the social effects of watching porn can spread
beyond the individual: pornography has been shown to improve acceptance of
homosexuality, birth control and extra-marital sex.
And porn has the potential to go even further. Sun doesn’t like pornography –
but it’s not actual porn she doesn’t like. It’s the social norms and standards that
led to the creation of certain stereotypes in the first place: not a result of
pornography, but rather a reflection of the direction broader society has taken.
‘We live in a patriarchy, where women are fundamentally objectified. We shouldn’t
be surprised to see it play out in pornography.’
by Prayaag Akbar
Prayaag Akbar is a writer and journalist. He is the former deputy editor of Scroll.in,
and his first novel Leila (2017) is out in India. He lives in Mumbai.
I n October 2016, a young man walked into a flour mill in Uttarakhand, a state of
northern India where the mist-wrapped mountains of the outer Himalayas begin.
He was Dalit (Sanskrit for broken, scattered, downtrodden), a relatively recent
collective identity claimed by communities across the nation that are considered
untouchable in the caste system. Present in the mill was a Brahmin schoolteacher
– Brahmins are the caste elite – who accused the Dalit man of having defiled all
the flour produced there that day, merely by his entry: notions of purity and
pollution are integral to caste. After the Dalit man objected to the insult, the
schoolteacher took out a blade and slit the Dalit’s throat, killing him instantly.
Most striking is that at no point do the Patels realise that they are making a film
about the endogamous (same-social or same-ethnic) strictures vital to caste. Ravi
is a seemingly assimilated Indian American. In speech, bearing, even ambition (he
is a comedian and actor), he transcends the bounds of traditional Indian society;
still, a lifetime of conditioning ensures that he feels the pressure of endogamy so
deeply that he will overturn his life to search for a Patel mate. He travels to huge
conventions where young men and women can meet Patel members of the
opposite sex. He allows his parents to set up a string of dates. He visits
astrologers: and he does all this out of filial duty, never interrogating why his
parents demand this of him. Endogamy is shown as a trait of Indian society, not
caste society. Yet the documentary stands as a revelatory exposition of how caste
exercises control between generations; how, without a whisper of violence or even
punishment – simply, the fear of disappointing your parents – caste ensures its
own survival, even in lands and cultures distant from its place of genesis.
It is unsurprising that the Patel siblings are unaware that they are, in effect,
making a film about caste. Many Indians watching this movie would experience
the same blindness. As caste has been globally castigated as a social evil, upper-
caste Indian society has found numerous ways to refer to caste without explicitly
mentioning it. In everyday language, media and advertising, proxies include
‘community’ and ‘family background’. Endogamous pressure is condoned as vital
to Indian society because it preserves the community (few modern Indians would
admit to wanting to preserve the caste group). Another linguistic proxy for lower-
caste groups is ‘different’. ese proxies carry the full range of meanings that
caste categorisations do, and are used in a variety of situations, from school and
job interviews to a landlord meeting prospective tenants.
is sleight of hand lets Indian society permit itself the feel-good release of loudly
castigating brute incidents of caste violence, even as it perpetuates a self-serving
mythology about the nature and limits of caste. As we will see, caste is both varna
(hierarchy) and jati (endogamous groups). e failure to break caste stems in part
from India’s unwillingness to examine how just how jati feeds into varna.
e new European arrivals saw in Indian society’s obsession with lineal purity and
demarcated living an echo of their own understanding of racial purity. British,
French and Dutch traders, doubling as amateur anthropologists, subsequently
sent back detailed descriptions of the social system, coloured by Orientalist ideas
about static Hindu culture and the inscrutable East. ese were used by scholars
as varied as Karl Marx, Max Weber and Oliver Cox to construct theories of
society in India and beyond. Perhaps the most influential, Homo Hierarchicus
(1966), was written by the French sociologist Louis Dumont.
Yet every Indian knows that there is another aspect to caste: jaat, or jati. Jati is the
caste identity that every Indian is born with, the multifarious groupings of clans,
tribes, communities and religions that comprise Indian society. Each jati is
typically associated with a traditional job function, and some jatis are defined by
religious variation or linguistic groupings. Jati is not limited to Hindus: Indian
Muslims, Sikhs and Christians all hold to age-old sectarian identities, with
prescribed rules and customs analogous to jati, within their larger belief system.
Indian society is divided into thousands of these endogamous kinship groups, no
one is sure how many. e bigger jatis are further subdivided, in accordance with
observable differences in custom and rule. A Hindu’s jati prescribes the rules and
rituals of life: the foods they can eat, whom they can marry and socially interact
with, where and how they pray. When the Portuguese wayfarers ventured inland
from the Western coast, it is the numerous social divisions that jati mandates that
would have reminded them of casta. Endogamy, chief among them.
Caste is no static pyramid. It’s a dynamic social organisation, both hierarchy and
segmentation. e revered Dalit scholar and leader B R Ambedkar likened the jati
system to ‘a string of tennis balls hanging one above the other’, the string twining
about, separating each caste from the other. is image helps us understand how,
within a hierarchy, castes can shift in status; how different jatis can each believe
themselves superior to the other; and how neatly separated, as planets in a
system, each group is from even those occupying a similar status.
When an urban Indian today says that caste is a matter of the past, or a concern of
the village, he means that the hierarchical formation (varna) is no longer as
relevant as it once was. He knows that kinship communities (jati) remain relevant
and visible, but sees that influence as benign; a natural, eternal division of peoples
that does not rupture society but is instead a marker of civilisational strength,
modern India’s link with its ancient custom and social practice.
e conflagration had been sparked by a scuffle, after two young Dalit men
responded to the provocations of two Jat men of similar age. e Dalit response
was seen as an insult to the Jat community so egregious that Jats were called in
overnight from neighbouring villages to attend a caste council meeting and
determine the retaliatory action required. I was most surprised by the way that
the Jat violence seemed to inspire solidarity not shame. En route to the village, Jat
men had refused to give us directions. At one point, we stopped at a haveli
(mansion) in another village two hours’ drive away, where the patriarch, a former
politician, aware where my sympathies lay, had gathered some Jat elders so that I
could hear ‘their side’. None of them had been to Mirchpur. ey knew details of
the incident only from community networks. ey didn’t condone the violence.
But they were prepared to give me many reasons why the Jats’ anger had been
triggered.
Just this February, the village again made headlines after a group of Dalit men
were beaten with rods and sticks by upper-caste villagers. e provocation: one of
the Dalit men was winning the village races traditionally won by upper-castes.
is elite silence has had varied societal impacts, not least the failure to examine
how privilege and disprivilege have been carried over within caste groups from
the colonial state to the modern republic. e association with Indian tradition
was key. Another scholar, Surinder Jodhka, writes: ‘One of the obvious
implications of this identification of caste with culture and tradition was that
considerations of caste could not become part of the hard questions of economic
redistribution, privilege and poverty, or the mainstream development discourse.’
In the past two years, massive violent protests have been orchestrated in the
states of Maharashtra, Haryana and Gujarat against state organs. So far, the
Supreme Court has resisted the protestors’ demands for protections, citing the
economic and opportunity advantages their communities already enjoy. e
matter is complicated because the important political parties in each state
aggregate their support from these dominant groups.
Another important incursion of caste into the mainstream discourse has been in
electoral politics. For many decades after independence, the Congress Party
dominated democratic politics, forming a succession of governments. e
political scientist Rajni Kothari described this as the ‘Congress system’, where the
Congress was an umbrella organisation that could accommodate various kinds of
pressures, simultaneously Left- and Right-wing, elite and populist. Yet the
Congress has always been predominantly upper-caste. As universal adult
franchise took root post-independence, its upper rungs drew heavily from
Brahmins, and also the zamindar castes (feudal landlords) prevalent in rural areas,
where the vast majority of the Indian population resided, leading to the
incendiary Dalit critique that the Indian freedom movement had simply replaced
the colonial elite with the pre-existing caste elite.
In e Saffron Wave (1999), the anthropologist omas B Hansen argues that the
consolidation of Hindu nationalism in India is, in part, a reaction to this caste-
based churn, as upper-castes have coalesced around a fervid ideology that
champions tradition and custom, and consequently, if quietly, the ancient
hierarchy. e ruling party of India, the Right-wing BJP, is not typically seen as a
caste outfit, yet its parent organisation and own ranks are dominated by
Brahmins; Hindu nationalism is a deeply Brahminical ideology; and since
inception has enjoyed the unswerving financial patronage of the upper-caste
Baniya jati-cluster.
e BJP’s recent electoral success is described by the party and pliant sections of
the media as a transcendence of caste, with votes accruing around the promise of
economic development rather than caste loyalties. Yet the BJP picks candidates
and elevates them to high positions based on their caste. e prime minister
Narendra Modi has played up the fact that his own jati belongs to the numerically
dominant OBC categorisation – a demographic category that has become a
political force via the reservation system. e surprising support that the party
has lately received from OBC jatis nationally derives, in part, from Modi’s careful
caste-based appeal.
Arguably, caste has been the most influential social reality in India over all the
years that its disappearance was cheered, decades when horrific acts of group
violence against lower-castes was routine, when the perpetrators were either
never arrested or later freed by local courts (all these practices continue in India
today). Tellingly, the silence around caste was broken only when lower-caste
mobilisation really took hold, influencing electoral politics and social status.
ough the two national parties, Congress and BJP, have always relied on
aggregating support from various jatis to win elections at the local level, it is the
political mobility of non-elite castes that is seen to have fundamentally changed
the game. Lower-caste assertion is portrayed as having beset the previously clean
political system with caste. In this, a parallel can be drawn with the Black Lives
Matter movement in the US, which broke the silence around race-based
discrimination among police. For years, it was privately acknowledged that US
policing had a problem with black minorities. It was aired in conversation, joked
about in popular culture, referenced in important avenues of black culture such
as hip-hop music and film. Yet only after video evidence began building on social
media, and grassroots political mobilisation rallied, did white-controlled media
acknowledge the scale of the problem. e responses it spawned – All Lives
Matter, Blue Lives Matter, and increased support for Donald Trump – are an
instructive demonstration of how elite groups deal with the demand for fair and
equal treatment.
e taboo around the sharing of potables continues to this day. In ‘Waiting for a
Visa’ (written in the 1940s), Ambedkar wrote movingly of an incident in his
childhood – little more than 100 years ago – when he and his brothers and sisters
took a bullock cart from a train station to visit their father, who was working in
another town. ey ended up having to spend the night en route. Riding through
the dark of rural Maharashtra, the children were denied water in house after
house. e bullock cart driver also refused to share. Ambedkar cites this as his
moment of political awakening: coming from a relatively privileged family within
his Mahar clan (a Dalit subcaste), he had not yet understood what it would be like
outside the geographical bounds of his jati.
From the 1970s on, anthropologists have reported from villages that the caste
structure as Dumont understood it is disappearing. Certainly, middle-caste
assertion and mobility have been noticeable aspects of the democratic experience
in India. It is also often argued that urban living has destroyed caste; for example,
since people of different castes are forced to live with each other in high-rise
buildings, apartheid is no longer possible. ere is some truth to this. In economic
terms, caste inequalities are smallest in metropolitan cities. But it needs to be
qualified: only in India’s largest cities has caste-influence been moderated:
elsewhere economic benefits accrue to privileged groups.
And the intimate considerations of purity that are essential to caste – have those
disappeared? In any Indian city today, especially in the torrid, torpid summer, it is
hard to imagine household after household denying a Dalit child water. e act of
sharing water has itself become political: a way of asserting that caste does not
matter. But it is also true that upper-caste households will have a separate set of
utensils and crockery for their domestic servants. Outsiders who come in on
menial work drink from glasses the family does not use. e safe presumption is
that both servant and outsider are lower-caste, and therefore liable of polluting
the everyday cutlery used in the home.
With the increase in gated communities, the divide between rich and poor and
upper- and lower-castes has become so sharp that it is equally hard to imagine
Dalit children having access to the doorsteps of upper-caste homes. A paper
published in 2012 studied urban residential segregation in India’s seven largest
metro cities. e authors found that residential segregation by caste was sizably
larger than the level of segregation by socio-economic status. is is a remarkable
finding, telling us that rich and poor caste cohorts are more likely to live together
than rich people of different castes and poor people of different castes.
Caste has proved itself a resolute, nimble institution, surviving the dramatic
political and economic transformations of three millennia. ere is no question of
it having disappeared from either the rural or urban context. Instead, it has
shifted, morphed in ways that we must continually examine. It has claimed an
important role in modern Indian urbanism. e first step is to relieve ourselves of
the old, colonial idea of caste. Instead, we must understand how both hierarchy
and segmentation seep continually into every Indian life.
Even Hon’ble Supreme Court while hearing a Writ Petition (Civil) no. 75 of 2012, on 10.05.2013, Bachpan
Bachao Andolan vs Union of India has directed advisory on missing children.
The POCSO Act has also been amended to make it more e ective in dealing with cases of child sexual abuse in
the country and aims at arresting the rising trend of gruesome and heart wrenching o ences being committed
against children. The Amendment Act also provides for more stringent punishments such as increase in the
imprisonment period and depending on the gravity of the o ence, the Courts may impose penalties on the
perpetrator which includes death penalty in extreme cases of aggravated penetrative sexual assault. The Act
has also made adequate provisions for timely disposal of cases pertaining to POCSO.
1 Suo Moto Writ Petition regarding Alarming rise in the Download Tue,
number of reported child rape incidents (469.62 KB) 12/03/2019 -
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This project gives a description on the o ences done with children under IPC. This project gives the details about the crimes like sexual acts, kidnapping,
homicides, foeticides. It tells about the di erent sections that are made for the criminals who perform the crime against children. These criminals simply use
the children for their own use and make their own pro t out of their innocence. Some cases have also been described in this project where the criminals
have been punished for their acts.
Introduction
The most unguarded and decent victim of crimes are children and crimes are committed against them in the society. The most important legislations
approved for protection of children's rights and secure their safety are the POSCO Act and Juvenile Justice Act. The Indian Penal Code, 1860 gives a
description about the various misdeeds which are performed against children and punish their task under the various sections of the IPC. Homicide,
foeticides, kidnapping, sexual acts are some of the o ences that come under the IPC, 1860.
A person who commits kidnapping shall get punishment under Section 363 of IPC with detention of 7 years.
If such crime is committed by hiring the means of abuse of authority, an equivalent penalizing shall apply. The Supreme Court of Bombay, in the case of
Emperor v. Ayubkhan Mir Sultan, has given the rule that a minor's assent will not be entertained in this section to marry the accused, it is an o ence in every
circumstances.
Replay
Later, Apex Court declared in the judgement of Thakorlal D Vadgama v. State of Gujarat, if the accused laid a base by attraction and if this attraction
promotes a minor to get away from the guardian, then it will become tough for the accused to request innocence on the bottom and the minor himself
came to him with his own assent.
Rape
Section 375(6) of the IPC states that the work related to sexual activities in any of the formation which is given in the clause (a), (b), (c), and (d), with a girl
who is below the age of 18 years results in rape, regardless of the girl's consent for this type of acts. It is declared that the minor girl's consent is irrelevant
and unimportant on this ground that she is incapable of thinking and to give her consent. The Legislature assumes that these girls are tempted into these
type of activities without knowing the outcomes. In this section under the Exception 2, protects women under age of 15 years from any sexual acts.
The wrongdoing of rape which is committed against the girls is punished under the IPC as follows:
Section 376(3) Rape of woman under 16 years of age Rigorous imprisonment of not less than 20 years/life & ne
Section 376-AB Rape of woman under 12 years of age Rigorous imprisonment of not less than 20 years/life & ne, or death
Section 376-DA Gang rape of woman under 16 years of age Imprisonment for life & ne
Section 376-DB Gang rape of woman under 12 years of age Imprisonment for life & ne, or death
Causing Miscarriage
Sections 312, 313 & 314 a ect the wrongdoing of causing thwarting and its annoying forms, di erentiating the accountability into 2 categories with regard to
women's assent and reference of her being with child or quick with child.
Essential Ingredients
Voluntarily Causing Miscarriage
The rules given under the given Sections can be implied to such cases where miscarriage is caused by their own choice. Section 39 of the IPC de nes
voluntarily as to cause intentionally. Mens rea is an important element of this o ence.
Miscarriage
The term miscarriage has not been de ned under the IPC and its usage is synonymous to abortion. within the legal context, miscarriage is that the
premature expulsion of the merchandise of conception at any time before the complete term is reached; while medically, three distinct terms of abortion,
miscarriage, and premature labor are wont to indicate the expulsion of the foetus at di erent stages of gestation. Miscarriage is especially used if such
expulsion occurs from the fourth to the seventh month, before it's viable.[2]
Consent of Woman
Sections 312 & 313 a ect the aspect of the woman's consent against whom such o ence is committed. Section 312 envisages things where the lady
consents to the causing of a miscarriage of her foetus and is held equally susceptible to the committing of such o ence with imprisonment of up to 7 years
and ne. Section 313, on the opposite hand, manifests a way graver sort of such o ence, i.e. committed without that woman's consent and hence is
susceptible to imprisonment for all times, or up to 10 years & ne.
Exceptions
Exceptions to the o ence of causing miscarriage/ abortion are twofold:
Good faith:
Section 312 of the IPC exempts such persons who cause miscarriage in straightness (as de ned under Section 52) to save lots of the woman's life.
In the case of Dr. Jacob George V. State of Kerala, a surgery for abortion was performed by a quack on a lady together with her consent, which
resulted in her death thanks to the perforation of her uterus. The Supreme Court a rmed his conviction while laying down the principle that an
individual might be held liable under this section if the abortion isn't administered in straightness for the aim of saving the woman's life.
In another case of State of Maharashtra v. Flora Santuno Kutino, one among the respondents, who had illicit relations with a lady & pregnated her,
was instrumental in causing miscarriage, and hence, was convicted by the supreme court since such miscarriage was caused, not in straightness, but
to wipe o his illicit relationship.
Intention
Section 315 declares that the intention to stop a toddler from being born alive/to cause it to die after its birth is important to the o ence committed
thereunder, except when wiped out straightness for the aim of saving the mother's life. An o ender under this Section shall be liable with imprisonment
which can reach 10 years/ ne/both.
Replay
Section 316 may be a graver variant of Section 315, wherein the act is completed with the intention/ malice aforethought to commit an o ence amounting
to culpable homicide (presumably of the mother), which act though doesn't cause the death of the mother, but causes the death of a fast unborn child, and
is punishable with imprisonment of up to 10 years and ne. Further, if the wrongdoing leads to the death of the mother, then it shall amount to culpable
homicide.
Conclusion
It has been understood now that the o ences mentioned above concerning about the infants or the new born and the unborn, are highlighted by the
pressure which the society gives us and the judgments which have values on the unwedded mothers. The male members of the society are equally
responsible, the social shame and the avoidance is placed on the lady only, which successively leads to the child's abortion.
Moreover, things like desertion of child is usually seen in the cases of female child only. This behaviour and mind set which is spread in the society has to
change and there are many reforms that are being performed. The IPC in accordance to the legal code has recognised annoying types of o ences which are
performed against the children. Minors are still prone and are exploited in the working of crimes. Therefore, strict enforced mechanisms are to be used to
counter the issue so as to make sure that the protection of infants and new born and to ensure the safety of them.
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by Kristy Slominski
Kristy Slominski is the assistant professor of religion, science and health in the
Department of Religious Studies and Classics at the University of Arizona. She is the
author of Teaching Moral Sex: A History of Religion and Sex Education in the United
States (2021).
At the national level, the debate over sex education has generally followed culture
war divides, with liberals supporting comprehensive sexuality education, and
conservatives leading calls for sexual risk avoidance education. Long aligned with
the latter has been white conservative Protestantism, the religious group most
vocal in public debates about sex education since the late 1960s. But it would be
wrong to think of the sex education debate as simply ‘religious versus secular’. In
fact, religions are not one-sided on this issue, and cannot be separated from these
discussions. A look at the history of sex education in the US shows that religions
– especially Protestant denominations – have deeply influenced many aspects of
sex education, both progressive and conservative. is is not surprising given the
symbolic value of sexuality, as well as the transmission of moral values through sex
education, both of which make it a key battleground in the culture wars. Sex
education is attached to the control of young bodies through lessons about sexual
diseases, reproduction and romantic pairings, as well as the control of young
minds through the classroom. In formative ways, Christian involvement in the
history of sex education laid the groundwork for both sides of the debate today.
M orrow had learned a lesson that recurs throughout the history of sex education:
adding religious frameworks and spokespeople into medical campaigns is
necessary for success. Facts and data are often not enough to convince the US
public to take scientific lessons about sex seriously; religious persuasion is
needed too. So, since the early 20th century, the sex education movement has
treated Christianity as a fount of ample resources: live audiences (church
attendees and auxiliary networks), free advertising (religious pulpits and
publications), reputable leadership to guide and promote sensitive campaigns
(ministers and other respected church people), an ethical system to motivate
people to ‘behave’, and ideologies that safeguarded the topic from censorship by
connecting it to well-accepted ideas of love, family and Christian respectability.
Morrow’s work helped to create a coalition between social hygiene and social
purity or, as he would later put it, between ‘the medical man and the moralist’.
is eventually led to the creation in 1914 of the American Social Hygiene
Association (now the American Sexual Health Association), an organisation that
would guide the national sex education movement for decades to come.
Elevating religious concerns also provided a reason to keep the sex education
movement separate from the birth control movement. Endorsing birth control
would have ostracised prominent Catholic sex educators such as John
Montgomery Cooper. An anthropologist and priest, Cooper was well aware of the
Roman Catholic position against artificial birth control methods but saw great
value in sex education to discourage sin, strengthen character, and support
reproduction within nuclear families. e decision by the American Social
Hygiene Association to remain neutral on birth control – viewed as a more
radical, feminist cause – further protected the movement from censorship and
public outcry in its early years. At a time before most public schools were ready to
incorporate lessons about sexuality, religious groups provided direct access to
parents who would help to decide whether to let sex education into schools; they
also offered experimental locations for developing and trying out these
programmes.
A fter early experiments with public school sex education in Chicago, sex
educators temporarily shifted to the immediate challenge of educating young
soldiers about sexual temptations during the First World War. e military had a
bad reputation for letting soldiers sow their wild oats; in response to parental
uproar, the US government enlisted sex educators of the American Social
Hygiene Association and the Young Men’s Christian Association (YMCA) to build
a military sex-education programme. e sex educators focused on the moral side
of sex, while military doctors lectured on STI symptoms and how to use a
prophylactic kit when moral restraint failed. YMCA sex educators connected
these lectures to their physical programmes to keep men morally, mentally and
physically fit, with the goal of preventing men from visiting prostitutes or
engaging in the largely unspoken option of same-sex intercourse.
A US Navy poster from 1942 warning of the perils of venereal disease. Courtesy NIH
Digital Collections
YMCA lecturers such as James Naismith, the inventor of basketball and sex
educator to the American Expeditionary Forces, used Christianity as a powerful
motivator to encourage soldiers to stay morally and physically ‘clean’ while
overseas. Along with lectures and counselling sessions, Naismith considered
sports a wholesome way to expel sexual energy and distract soldiers from sexual
temptations. Chaplains, mostly Protestant, supported YMCA sex educators in
urging soldiers to strengthen their Christian character and stay away from
prostitutes. Moral education about sex was one piece of a larger ‘American plan’
to stop the spread of STIs, which included policing red-light districts.
Incarceration and forced medical examinations followed racist, classist and sexist
assumptions, as they targeted women deemed ‘problematic’ by those in power.
After the war, attention shifted back home. Religious leaders within the American
Social Hygiene Association steered away from STI education and toward family
life education. e liberal Protestant sex educator Anna Garlin Spencer led this
shift, arguing that sexuality education was intimately connected to raising morally
responsible children. As a pathbreaking female minister – the first woman to be
ordained in Rhode Island and a leader in social purity, suffrage and pacifism – as
well as a sociology professor, Spencer believed that religious groups had an
obligation to support sex education, which would strengthen the family unit as
the building block of each religion and of the nation. Her argument corresponded
with broader concerns about the perils facing the modern family, primarily
divorce, and overlapped with social scientific trends for domestic sciences, home
economics, social work and marital counselling. Family life education echoed
racial and cultural ideals of the eugenics movement about the importance of
finding an ‘ideal’ partner with whom to marry and reproduce. It further reflected
liberal Protestant efforts to be on the cutting edge of academic trends and a desire
to find common ground across religious groups, since they believed all could
agree on the religious and national importance of strengthening the social
institution of the family (read: the heterosexual, nuclear family).
ese religiously affiliated efforts pushed sex education forward through the mid-
20th century, providing further infrastructure for the movement and making the
platform more publicly acceptable. ey chipped away at the conspiracy of
silence and found ways of educating parents, young soldiers and some children,
overcoming concerns that any discussion would incite sexual curiosity and
depravity. Despite progress, the specific frameworks and decisions had
consequences, shackling sex education to a certain ideal of family (as
heterosexual, white, middle-class, and nuclear) and to morals (of a specifically
white liberal Protestant variety). e overarching belief that the proper domain
for sexuality was within monogamous, heterosexual marriages forged the sex
education consensus in the first half of the 20th century. It didn’t last much
longer.
T hese progressive coalitions and agendas brought about their own downfall,
laying the groundwork for the tumultuous sex education battles of the 1960s.
Progressive religion wanted to invite everyone to the table, though still on
progressive and usually Protestant terms. One perennial challenge of this liberal
impulse is the question of how to be inclusive of those who don’t accept the same
terms of inclusiveness. Not everyone wants a spot at the table, and some exclusive
worldviews feel compromised when certain groups are allowed to join the
conversation on equal footing.
By making sure that moral behaviour was a central concern of sex education,
liberal Protestants had convinced Americans that sex education was important
for raising children and building strong families. But after the 1960s, they lost
control over whose morals guided the lessons. When the mainstream Judeo-
Protestant consensus that had been used to justify family life education gave way
to a rejection of universal morality, conservative Christians stepped in to put their
morals at the centre of sex education. After spending years on defence against
comprehensive sexuality education, evangelicals such as Tim LaHaye went on the
offensive in the 1980s with abstinence-only education. LaHaye and his wife had
reached bestseller status with their sex manual, e Act of Marriage (1976).
Building on that success, he sought to prove that sex education could also be
sanctified for conservative Christian purposes. Others followed, making
abstinence-only education an integral part of the Christian Right’s pro-family
movement and evangelical purity culture, known for its silver rings and virginity
pledges.
In 1996, abstinence-only received an enormous boost of federal funding
($50 million a year), supporting the message that ‘a mutually faithful
monogamous relationship in the context of marriage is the expected standard of
human sexual activity.’ Christian abstinence-only campaigners worked to remove
the most explicit religious language to fit their curricula within public schools.
Abstinence-only federal funding has remained fairly consistent, with only a brief
lull for less than a year under the Barack Obama administration, during which
time a separate funding stream was made available to comprehensive sexuality
education.
Even the liberal Protestant trend of embracing science as a method for revealing
God’s truth came back around, as conservative Christians borrowed scientific
language to argue that their version of sex education was representative of God’s
will. Medically accurate sexual terminology that evangelicals had initially labelled
pornographic now became part of their arsenal, within a framework of ‘Just say
no.’ Abstinence-only advocates took the same statistics that comprehensive
sexuality educators used to demonstrate the need for more expansive
programmes, and argued the opposite: that high rates of STIs and unintended
pregnancies indicated the failure of comprehensive sexuality education, therefore
demonstrating the need for restrictive programmes that exclude lessons on the
effectiveness of contraceptives and the diversity of sexual and gender identities.
S ex education battles form the roots of the Christian Right, and they became
entangled with later developments of evangelical resistance to racial integration
in their schools and an alignment with the Republican Party in the 1970s.
Protests against comprehensive sexuality education provided an opportunity to
use sexuality to represent other political issues, showing the symbolic potency of
sexuality as a carrier for moral values. e subsequent growth of abstinence-only
programmes further strengthened their pro-family platform. ese developments
helped the Christian Right forge its Christian nationalist ideology.
Looking back on this history prompts the question of why scientific professionals
needed religion in the sex-ed movement in the first place. Besides the resources
and experience that Protestant reformers brought to the table, in the words of the
scientists themselves, science was not enough. Early sex educators knew that data
and facts were insufficient for changing sexual behaviours. One pointed out that
doctors still contracted STIs, even though they knew the most about them, so
something more than information must be needed to convince and motivate
people to follow sexual health guidelines.
e realisation that scientific information alone was ineffective for the goals of sex
education should resonate, as there are still many cases in which the US public
remains resistant to scientific findings on controversial topics. Many Americans’
resistance to the overwhelming consensus on the basics of human evolution is
one case in point, and one in which Protestantism has similarly played complex
roles, with liberal Protestantism championing mainstream scientific authority,
conservative Protestantism developing alternative rationales for creationism, and
many individual beliefs falling somewhere along the spectrum between these
national talking points. Religious responses to COVID-19 have revealed some
similar divisions. A 2020 study found that those who held a Christian nationalist
ideology – supported mostly by politically conservative Christians who believe
the Bible should be interpreted literally – were most likely to reject scientific
findings about the efficacy of masking, social distancing, and vaccination while
other highly religious Americans were supportive of these same measures.
Religious affiliations, of course, are not the only factors influencing the public
reception of scientific data and discourses. Common distrust of ‘science’ (as if it
were just one thing) can stem from the overuse of scientific jargon, the nonlinear
process of scientific discovery, and real scientific mistakes, including corruption of
individual researchers and classist, sexist and racist projects in the past and
present. However, as the history of sex education demonstrates, religions have
complex influences on secular issues and on public receptions, and scientists and
science educators would benefit from pedagogical approaches that take seriously
religious resistance to scientific authority. More broadly, scientists and educators
of all varieties need new ways to teach scientific knowledge effectively to the
public.
Another lesson that can be gleaned from this history is the need to re-examine the
behaviour-oriented goals of sex education. If we evaluated the success of school
mathematics classes by how many people could complete their own tax forms, we
would also have much cause for alarm. Obviously, there are important differences
between the topics of mathematics and sex, but instrumentalist assessments can
put an unfair burden on education programmes: there are many other reasons
that people engage in sexual activity (or fail to ace their taxes), completely
unrelated to the type or quality of education programmes they previously
encountered or the extent of their learning within those programmes. is calls
for critical conversations about why we desire to control what happens beyond
the classroom, whether such control is possible, and in what ways it impedes
other educational objectives that we have stronger chances of achieving through
sex education: concluding programmes with students who are well-informed and
have the critical skills to ask good questions and find reliable answers after class is
out.
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Childhood means more than the years between birth and adulthood. It means
attending school alongside classmates, splashing in pools during the summers, and
playing soccer knowing that your family sits in the stands. Childhood is a time for
children to blossom at the hands of unconditional love and endless encouragement.
02:18
Unfortunately, not all children live free from fear and safe from violence. In 2015,
nearly 700,000 children experienced some form of maltreatment in the United
States. For these children, abuse and neglect replace love and encouragement.
In 1983, Ronald Reagan declared April as Child Abuse Prevention Month, a month
designed to increase attention to the protection of children and to intensify efforts
to prevent maltreatment. Although April serves to raise awareness of child abuse
and some of its preventative measures, abuse doesn’t stop at the end of April,
continuing to occur every month, every day, every hour.
04:08
03:53
While some resilient survivors share their personal stories of abuse in hopes of
raising awareness, national abuse child estimates are known for being under-
reported.
You may think child abuse doesn’t happen where you live. How could something this
horrific take place within your state, your city, your own neighborhood? However,
child abuse victims live in every state.
HOW
MANY
CHILD
ABUSE
VICTIMS
IN YOUR
STATE IN
2015?
Statistics from American SPCC
S E l i
■
By learning to recognize the signs of child abuse, raising awareness, and increasing
advocacy, we can put an end to child abuse. Many organizations, such as The Blue
Ribbon Project, Invisible Children, and Childhelp, provide programs to end the
cycle of child abuse among families and communities.
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by Rebecca Reilly-Cooper
W hat is gender? is is a question that cuts to the very heart of feminist theory
and practice, and is pivotal to current debates in social justice activism about
class, identity and privilege. In everyday conversation, the word ‘gender’ is a
synonym for what would more accurately be referred to as ‘sex’. Perhaps due to a
vague squeamishness about uttering a word that also describes sexual
intercourse, the word ‘gender’ is now euphemistically used to refer to the
biological fact of whether a person is female or male, saving us all the mild
embarrassment of having to invoke, however indirectly, the bodily organs and
processes that this bifurcation entails.
At least, that is the role that the word gender traditionally performed in feminist
theory. It used to be a basic, fundamental feminist idea that while sex referred to
what is biological, and so perhaps in some sense ‘natural’, gender referred to what
is socially constructed. On this view, which for simplicity we can call the radical
feminist view, gender refers to the externally imposed set of norms that prescribe
and proscribe desirable behaviour to individuals in accordance with morally
arbitrary characteristics.
Not only are these norms external to the individual and coercively imposed, but
they also represent a binary caste system or hierarchy, a value system with two
positions: maleness above femaleness, manhood above womanhood, masculinity
above femininity. Individuals are born with the potential to perform one of two
reproductive roles, determined at birth, or even before, by the external genitals
that the infant possesses. From then on, they will be inculcated into one of two
classes in the hierarchy: the superior class if their genitals are convex, the inferior
one if their genitals are concave.
From birth, and the identification of sex-class membership that happens at that
moment, most female people are raised to be passive, submissive, weak and
nurturing, while most male people are raised to be active, dominant, strong and
aggressive. is value system, and the process of socialising and inculcating
individuals into it, is what a radical feminist means by the word ‘gender’.
Understood like this, it’s not difficult to see what is objectionable and oppressive
about gender, since it constrains the potential of both male and female people
alike, and asserts the superiority of males over females. So, for the radical
feminist, the aim is to abolish gender altogether: to stop putting people into pink
and blue boxes, and to allow the development of individuals’ personalities and
preferences without the coercive influence of this socially enacted value system.
is view of the nature of gender sits uneasily with those who experience gender
as in some sense internal and innate, rather than as entirely socially constructed
and externally imposed. Such people not only dispute that gender is entirely
constructed, but also reject the radical feminist analysis that it is inherently
hierarchical with two positions. On this view, which for ease I will call the queer
feminist view of gender, what makes the operation of gender oppressive is not
that it is socially constructed and coercively imposed: rather, the problem is the
prevalence of the belief that there are only two genders.
At first blush this seems an appealing idea, but there are numerous problems with
it, problems that render it internally incoherent and politically unattractive.
M any proponents of the queer view of gender describe their own gender identity
as ‘non-binary’, and present this in opposition to the vast majority of people
whose gender identity is presumed to be binary. On the face of it, there seems to
be an immediate tension between the claim that gender is not a binary but a
spectrum, and the claim that only a small proportion of individuals can be
described as having a non-binary gender identity. If gender really is a spectrum,
doesn’t this mean that every individual alive is non-binary, by definition? If so,
then the label ‘non-binary’ to describe a specific gender identity would become
redundant, because it would fail to pick out a special category of people.
To avoid this, the proponent of the spectrum model must in fact be assuming that
gender is both a binary and a spectrum. It is entirely possible for a property to be
described in both continuous and binary ways. One example is height: clearly
height is a continuum, and individuals can fall anywhere along that continuum;
but we also have the binary labels Tall and Short. Might gender operate in a
similar way?
e thing to notice about the Tall/Short binary is that when these concepts are
invoked to refer to people, they are relative or comparative descriptions. Since
height is a spectrum or a continuum, no individual is absolutely tall or absolutely
short; we are all of us taller than some people and shorter than some others.
When we refer to people as tall, what we mean is that they are taller than the
average person in some group whose height we are interested in examining. A
boy could simultaneously be tall for a six-year-old, and yet short by comparison
with all male people. So ascriptions of the binary labels Tall and Short must be
comparative, and make reference to the average. Perhaps individuals who cluster
around that average might have some claim to refer to themselves as of ‘non-
binary height’.
However, it seems unlikely that this interpretation of the spectrum model will
satisfy those who describe themselves as non-binary gendered. If gender, like
height, is to be understood as comparative or relative, this would fly in the face of
the insistence that individuals are the sole arbiters of their gender. Your gender
would be defined by reference to the distribution of gender identities present in
the group in which you find yourself, and not by your own individual self-
determination. It would thus not be up to me to decide that I am non-binary. is
could be determined only by comparing my gender identity to the spread of other
people’s, and seeing where I fall. And although I might think of myself as a
woman, someone else might be further down the spectrum towards womanhood
than I am, and thus ‘more of a woman’ than me.
Further, when we observe the analogy with height we can see that, when
observing the entire population, only a small minority of people would be
accurately described as Tall or Short. Given that height really is a spectrum, and
the binary labels are ascribed comparatively, only the handful of people at either
end of the spectrum can be meaningfully labelled Tall or Short. e rest of us,
falling along all the points in between, are the non-binary height people, and we
are typical. In fact, it is the binary Tall and Short people who are rare and unusual.
And if we extend the analogy to gender, we see that being non-binary gendered is
actually the norm, not the exception.
If gender is a spectrum, that means it’s a continuum between two extremes, and
everyone is located somewhere along that continuum. I assume the two ends of
the spectrum are masculinity and femininity. Is there anything else that they
could possibly be? Once we realise this, it becomes clear that everybody is non-
binary, because absolutely nobody is pure masculinity or pure femininity. Of
course, some people will be closer to one end of the spectrum, while others will be
more ambiguous and float around the centre. But even the most conventionally
feminine person will demonstrate some characteristics that we associate with
masculinity, and vice versa.
I would be happy with this implication, because despite possessing female biology
and calling myself a woman, I do not consider myself a two-dimensional gender
stereotype. I am not an ideal manifestation of the essence of womanhood, and so I
am non-binary. Just like everybody else. However, those who describe themselves
as non-binary are unlikely to be satisfied with this conclusion, as their identity as
‘non-binary person’ depends upon the existence of a much larger group of so-
called binary ‘cisgender’ people, people who are incapable of being outside the
arbitrary masculine/feminine genders dictated by society.
And here we have an irony about some people insisting that they and a handful of
their fellow gender revolutionaries are non-binary: in doing so, they create a false
binary between those who conform to the gender norms associated with their sex,
and those who do not. In reality, everybody is non-binary. We all actively
participate in some gender norms, passively acquiesce with others, and positively
rail against others still. So to call oneself non-binary is in fact to create a new false
binary. It also often seems to involve, at least implicitly, placing oneself on the
more complex and interesting side of that binary, enabling the non-binary person
to claim to be both misunderstood and politically oppressed by the binary
cisgender people.
I f you identify as pangender, is the claim that you represent every possible point
on the spectrum? All at the same time? How might that be possible, given that the
extremes necessarily represent incompatible opposites of one another? Pure
femininity is passivity, weakness and submission, while pure masculinity is
aggression, strength and dominance. It is simply impossible to be all of these
things at the same time. If you disagree with these definitions of masculinity and
femininity, and do not accept that masculinity should be defined in terms of
dominance while femininity should be described in terms of submission, you are
welcome to propose other definitions. But whatever you come up with, they are
going to represent opposites of one another.
e only consistent answer to this is: 7 billion, give or take. ere are as many
possible gender identities as there are humans on the planet. According to
Nonbinary.org, one of the main internet reference sites for information about
non-binary genders, your gender can be frost or the Sun or music or the sea or
Jupiter or pure darkness. Your gender can be pizza.
But if this is so, it’s not clear how it makes sense or adds anything to our
understanding to call any of this stuff ‘gender’, as opposed to just ‘human
personality’ or ‘stuff I like’. e word gender is not just a fancy word for your
personality or your tastes or preferences. It is not just a label to adopt so that you
now have a unique way to describe just how large and multitudinous and
interesting you are. Gender is the value system that ties desirable (and sometimes
undesirable?) behaviours and characteristics to reproductive function. Once
we’ve decoupled those behaviours and characteristics from reproductive function
– which we should – and once we’ve rejected the idea that there are just two
types of personality and that one is superior to the other – which we should –
what can it possibly mean to continue to call this stuff ‘gender’? What meaning
does the word ‘gender’ have here, that the word ‘personality’ cannot capture?
e solution to that, however, is not to call myself agender, to try to slip through
the bars of the cage while leaving the rest of the cage intact, and the rest of
womankind trapped within it. is is especially so given that you can’t slip
through the bars. No amount of calling myself ‘agender’ will stop the world seeing
me as a woman, and treating me accordingly. I can introduce myself as agender
and insist upon my own set of neo-pronouns when I apply for a job, but it won’t
stop the interviewer seeing a potential baby-maker, and giving the position to the
less qualified but less encumbered by reproduction male candidate.
H ere we arrive at the crucial tension at the heart of gender identity politics, and
one that most of its proponents either haven’t noticed, or choose to ignore
because it can only be resolved by rejecting some of the key tenets of the
doctrine.
Many people justifiably assume that the word ‘transgender’ is synonymous with
‘transsexual’, and means something like: having dysphoria and distress about
your sexed body, and having a desire to alter that body to make it more closely
resemble the body of the opposite sex. But according to the current terminology
of gender identity politics, being transgender has nothing to do with a desire to
change your sexed body. What it means to be transgender is that your innate
gender identity does not match the gender you were assigned at birth. is might
be the case even if you are perfectly happy and content in the body you possess.
You are transgender simply if you identify as one gender, but socially have been
perceived as another.
It is a key tenet of the doctrine that the vast majority of people can be described
as ‘cisgender’, which means that our innate gender identity matches the one we
were assigned at birth. But as we have seen, if gender identity is a spectrum, then
we are all non-binary, because none of us inhabits the points represented by the
ends of that spectrum. Every single one of us will exist at some unique point
along that spectrum, determined by the individual and idiosyncratic nature of our
own particular identity, and our own subjective experience of gender. Given that,
it’s not clear how anybody ever could be cisgender. None of us was assigned our
correct gender identity at birth, for how could we possibly have been? At the
moment of my birth, how could anyone have known that I would later go on to
discover that my gender identity is ‘frostgender’, a gender which is apparently
‘very cold and snowy’?
e logical conclusion of all this is: if gender is a spectrum, not a binary, then
everyone is trans. Or alternatively, there are no trans people. Either way, this a
profoundly unsatisfactory conclusion, and one that serves both to obscure the
reality of female oppression, as well as to erase and invalidate the experiences of
transsexual people.
e way to avoid this conclusion is to realise that gender is not a spectrum. It’s
not a spectrum, because it’s not an innate, internal essence or property. Gender is
not a fact about persons that we must take as fixed and essential, and then build
our social institutions around that fact. Gender is socially constructed all the way
through, an externally imposed hierarchy, with two classes, occupying two value
positions: male over female, man over woman, masculinity over femininity.
e truth of the spectrum analogy lies in the fact that conformity to one’s place in
the hierarchy, and to the roles it assigns to people, will vary from person to
person. Some people will find it relatively easier and more painless to conform to
the gender norms associated with their sex, while others find the gender roles
associated with their sex so oppressive and limiting that they cannot tolerably live
under them, and choose to transition to live in accordance with the opposite
gender role.
You do not need to have a deep, internal, essential experience of gender to be free
to dress how you like, behave how you like, work how you like, love who you like.
You do not need to show that your personality is feminine for it to be acceptable
for you to enjoy cosmetics, cookery and crafting. You do not need to be
genderqueer to queer gender. e solution to an oppressive system that puts
people into pink and blue boxes is not to create more and more boxes that are
any colour but blue or pink. e solution is to tear down the boxes altogether.
By Julia Rosen
Ms. Rosen is a journalist with a Ph.D. in geology. Her research involved studying ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica
to understand past climate changes.
The science of climate change is more solid and widely agreed upon than you might think.
But the scope of the topic, as well as rampant disinformation, can make it hard to separate
fact from fiction. Here, we’ve done our best to present you with not only the most accurate
scientific information, but also an explanation of how we know it.
Do we really only have 150 years of climate data? How is that enough to tell us
about centuries of change?
Since greenhouse gases occur naturally, how do we know theyʼre causing Earthʼs
temperature to rise?
Why should we be worried that the planet has warmed 2°F since the 1800s?
Is climate change a part of the planetʼs natural warming and cooling cycles?
How can winters and certain places be getting colder if the planet is warming?
Wildfires and bad weather have always happened. How do we know thereʼs a
connection to climate change?
What will it cost to do something about climate change, versus doing nothing?
How do we know climate change is really happening?
Climate change is often cast as a prediction made by complicated computer models. But
the scientific basis for climate change is much broader, and models are actually only one
part of it (and, for what it’s worth, they’re surprisingly accurate).
For more than a century, scientists have understood the basic physics behind why
greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide cause warming. These gases make up just a small
fraction of the atmosphere but exert outsized control on Earth’s climate by trapping some
of the planet’s heat before it escapes into space. This greenhouse effect is important: It’s
why a planet so far from the sun has liquid water and life!
However, during the Industrial Revolution, people started burning coal and other fossil
fuels to power factories, smelters and steam engines, which added more greenhouse gases
to the atmosphere. Ever since, human activities have been heating the planet.
We know this is true thanks to an overwhelming body of evidence that begins with
temperature measurements taken at weather stations and on ships starting in the mid-
1800s. Later, scientists began tracking surface temperatures with satellites and looking for
clues about climate change in geologic records. Together, these data all tell the same story:
Earth is getting hotter.
Average global temperatures have increased by 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit, or 1.2 degrees
Celsius, since 1880, with the greatest changes happening in the late 20th century. Land
areas have warmed more than the sea surface and the Arctic has warmed the most — by
more than 4 degrees Fahrenheit just since the 1960s. Temperature extremes have also
shifted. In the United States, daily record highs now outnumber record lows two-to-one.
In fact, surface temperatures actually mask the true scale of climate change, because the
ocean has absorbed 90 percent of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases. Measurements
collected over the last six decades by oceanographic expeditions and networks of floating
instruments show that every layer of the ocean is warming up. According to one study, the
ocean has absorbed as much heat between 1997 and 2015 as it did in the previous 130 years.
We also know that climate change is happening because we see the effects everywhere. Ice
sheets and glaciers are shrinking while sea levels are rising. Arctic sea ice is disappearing.
In the spring, snow melts sooner and plants flower earlier. Animals are moving to higher
elevations and latitudes to find cooler conditions. And droughts, floods and wildfires have
all gotten more extreme. Models predicted many of these changes, but observations show
they are now coming to pass.
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Scientific agreement about climate change started to emerge in the late 1980s, when the
influence of human-caused warming began to rise above natural climate variability. By
1991, two-thirds of earth and atmospheric scientists surveyed for an early consensus study
said that they accepted the idea of anthropogenic global warming. And by 1995, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a famously conservative body that
periodically takes stock of the state of scientific knowledge, concluded that “the balance of
evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate.” Currently,
more than 97 percent of publishing climate scientists agree on the existence and cause of
climate change (as does nearly 60 percent of the general population of the United States).
So where did we get the idea that there’s still debate about climate change? A lot of it came
from coordinated messaging campaigns by companies and politicians that opposed climate
action. Many pushed the narrative that scientists still hadn’t made up their minds about
climate change, even though that was misleading. Frank Luntz, a Republican consultant,
explained the rationale in an infamous 2002 memo to conservative lawmakers: “Should the
public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global
warming will change accordingly,” he wrote. Questioning consensus remains a common
talking point today, and the 97 percent figure has become something of a lightning rod.
To bolster the falsehood of lingering scientific doubt, some people have pointed to things
like the Global Warming Petition Project, which urged the United States government to
reject the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, an early international climate agreement. The petition
proclaimed that climate change wasn’t happening, and even if it were, it wouldn’t be bad
for humanity. Since 1998, more than 30,000 people with science degrees have signed it.
However, nearly 90 percent of them studied something other than Earth, atmospheric or
environmental science, and the signatories included just 39 climatologists. Most were
engineers, doctors, and others whose training had little to do with the physics of the
climate system.
A few well-known researchers remain opposed to the scientific consensus. Some, like Willie
Soon, a researcher affiliated with the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, have
ties to the fossil fuel industry. Others do not, but their assertions have not held up under
the weight of evidence. At least one prominent skeptic, the physicist Richard Muller,
changed his mind after reassessing historical temperature data as part of the Berkeley
Earth project. His team’s findings essentially confirmed the results he had set out to
investigate, and he came away firmly convinced that human activities were warming the
planet. “Call me a converted skeptic,” he wrote in an Op-Ed for the Times in 2012.
Mr. Luntz, the Republican pollster, has also reversed his position on climate change and
now advises politicians on how to motivate climate action.
A final note on uncertainty: Denialists often use it as evidence that climate science isn’t
settled. However, in science, uncertainty doesn’t imply a lack of knowledge. Rather, it’s a
measure of how well something is known. In the case of climate change, scientists have
found a range of possible future changes in temperature, precipitation and other important
variables — which will depend largely on how quickly we reduce emissions. But
uncertainty does not undermine their confidence that climate change is real and that
people are causing it.
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Do we really only have 150 years of climate data? How is that enough
to tell us about centuries of change?
Earth’s climate is inherently variable. Some years are hot and others are cold, some
decades bring more hurricanes than others, some ancient droughts spanned the better
part of centuries. Glacial cycles operate over many millenniums. So how can scientists look
at data collected over a relatively short period of time and conclude that humans are
warming the planet? The answer is that the instrumental temperature data that we have
tells us a lot, but it’s not all we have to go on.
Historical records stretch back to the 1880s (and often before), when people began to
regularly measure temperatures at weather stations and on ships as they traversed the
world’s oceans. These data show a clear warming trend during the 20th century.
+1.2°C
+0.50°
+0.25°
–0.25°
Much has also been made of the small dips and pauses that punctuate the rising
temperature trend of the last 150 years. But these are just the result of natural climate
variability or other human activities that temporarily counteract greenhouse warming. For
instance, in the mid-1900s, internal climate dynamics and light-blocking pollution from
coal-fired power plants halted global warming for a few decades. (Eventually, rising
greenhouse gases and pollution-control laws caused the planet to start heating up again.)
Likewise, the so-called warming hiatus of the 2000s was partly a result of natural climate
variability that allowed more heat to enter the ocean rather than warm the atmosphere.
The years since have been the hottest on record.
Still, could the entire 20th century just be one big natural climate wiggle? To address that
question, we can look at other kinds of data that give a longer perspective. Researchers
have used geologic records like tree rings, ice cores, corals and sediments that preserve
information about prehistoric climates to extend the climate record. The resulting picture
of global temperature change is basically flat for centuries, then turns sharply upward over
the last 150 years. It has been a target of climate denialists for decades. However, study
after study has confirmed the results, which show that the planet hasn’t been this hot in at
least 1,000 years, and probably longer.
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How do we know climate change is caused by humans?
Scientists have studied past climate changes to understand the factors that can cause the
planet to warm or cool. The big ones are changes in solar energy, ocean circulation,
volcanic activity and the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. And they have
each played a role at times.
For example, 300 years ago, a combination of reduced solar output and increased volcanic
activity cooled parts of the planet enough that Londoners regularly ice skated on the
Thames. About 12,000 years ago, major changes in Atlantic circulation plunged the
Northern Hemisphere into a frigid state. And 56 million years ago, a giant burst of
greenhouse gases, from volcanic activity or vast deposits of methane (or both), abruptly
warmed the planet by at least 9 degrees Fahrenheit, scrambling the climate, choking the
oceans and triggering mass extinctions.
In trying to determine the cause of current climate changes, scientists have looked at all of
these factors. The first three have varied a bit over the last few centuries and they have
quite likely had modest effects on climate, particularly before 1950. But they cannot
account for the planet’s rapidly rising temperature, especially in the second half of the 20th
century, when solar output actually declined and volcanic eruptions exerted a cooling
effect.
Bubbles of ancient air trapped in ice show that, before about 1750, the concentration of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was roughly 280 parts per million. It began to rise slowly
and crossed the 300 p.p.m. threshold around 1900. CO2 levels then accelerated as cars and
electricity became big parts of modern life, recently topping 420 p.p.m. The concentration
of methane, the second most important greenhouse gas, has more than doubled. We’re now
emitting carbon much faster than it was released 56 million years ago.
30 billion
metric tons
Carbon dioxide emitted worldwide 25
1850-2017 India
Rest of
world 20
China
15
Russia Other
developed 10
European Union
Developed economies 5
Other countries
United States
Note: Total carbon dioxide emissions are from fossil fuels and cement production and do not include land use and forestry-related
emissions. Russia data includes the Soviet Union through 1991, but only the Russian Federation afterward. • Source: Research
Institute for Environment, Energy and Economics at Appalachian State University • By Veronica Penney
These rapid increases in greenhouse gases have caused the climate to warm abruptly. In
fact, climate models suggest that greenhouse warming can explain virtually all of the
temperature change since 1950. According to the most recent report by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which assesses published scientific
literature, natural drivers and internal climate variability can only explain a small fraction
of late-20th century warming.
Another study put it this way: The odds of current warming occurring without
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are less than 1 in 100,000.
But greenhouse gases aren’t the only climate-altering compounds people put into the air.
Burning fossil fuels also produces particulate pollution that reflects sunlight and cools the
planet. Scientists estimate that this pollution has masked up to half of the greenhouse
warming we would have otherwise experienced.
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Since greenhouse gases occur naturally, how do we know theyʼre
causing Earthʼs temperature to rise?
Greenhouse gases like water vapor and carbon dioxide serve an important role in the
climate. Without them, Earth would be far too cold to maintain liquid water and humans
would not exist!
Here’s how it works: the planet’s temperature is basically a function of the energy the
Earth absorbs from the sun (which heats it up) and the energy Earth emits to space as
infrared radiation (which cools it down). Because of their molecular structure, greenhouse
gases temporarily absorb some of that outgoing infrared radiation and then re-emit it in all
directions, sending some of that energy back toward the surface and heating the planet.
Scientists have understood this process since the 1850s.
Greenhouse gas concentrations have varied naturally in the past. Over millions of years,
atmospheric CO2 levels have changed depending on how much of the gas volcanoes
belched into the air and how much got removed through geologic processes. On time scales
of hundreds to thousands of years, concentrations have changed as carbon has cycled
between the ocean, soil and air.
Today, however, we are the ones causing CO2 levels to increase at an unprecedented pace
by taking ancient carbon from geologic deposits of fossil fuels and putting it into the
atmosphere when we burn them. Since 1750, carbon dioxide concentrations have increased
by almost 50 percent. Methane and nitrous oxide, other important anthropogenic
greenhouse gases that are released mainly by agricultural activities, have also spiked over
the last 250 years.
We know based on the physics described above that this should cause the climate to warm.
We also see certain telltale “fingerprints” of greenhouse warming. For example, nights are
warming even faster than days because greenhouse gases don’t go away when the sun
sets. And upper layers of the atmosphere have actually cooled, because more energy is
being trapped by greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere.
We also know that we are the cause of rising greenhouse gas concentrations — and not just
because we can measure the CO2 coming out of tailpipes and smokestacks. We can see it in
the chemical signature of the carbon in CO2.
Carbon comes in three different masses: 12, 13 and 14. Things made of organic matter
(including fossil fuels) tend to have relatively less carbon-13. Volcanoes tend to produce
CO2 with relatively more carbon-13. And over the last century, the carbon in atmospheric
CO2 has gotten lighter, pointing to an organic source.
We can tell it’s old organic matter by looking for carbon-14, which is radioactive and decays
over time. Fossil fuels are too ancient to have any carbon-14 left in them, so if they were
behind rising CO2 levels, you would expect the amount of carbon-14 in the atmosphere to
drop, which is exactly what the data show.
It’s important to note that water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the
atmosphere. However, it does not cause warming; instead it responds to it. That’s because
warmer air holds more moisture, which creates a snowball effect in which human-caused
warming allows the atmosphere to hold more water vapor and further amplifies climate
change. This so-called feedback cycle has doubled the warming caused by anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions.
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Why should we be worried that the planet has warmed 2°F since the
1800s?
A common source of confusion when it comes to climate change is the difference between
weather and climate. Weather is the constantly changing set of meteorological conditions
that we experience when we step outside, whereas climate is the long-term average of
those conditions, usually calculated over a 30-year period. Or, as some say: Weather is
your mood and climate is your personality.
So while 2 degrees Fahrenheit doesn’t represent a big change in the weather, it’s a huge
change in climate. As we’ve already seen, it’s enough to melt ice and raise sea levels, to
shift rainfall patterns around the world and to reorganize ecosystems, sending animals
scurrying toward cooler habitats and killing trees by the millions.
It’s also important to remember that two degrees represents the global average, and many
parts of the world have already warmed by more than that. For example, land areas have
warmed about twice as much as the sea surface. And the Arctic has warmed by about 5
degrees. That’s because the loss of snow and ice at high latitudes allows the ground to
absorb more energy, causing additional heating on top of greenhouse warming.
Relatively small long-term changes in climate averages also shift extremes in significant
ways. For instance, heat waves have always happened, but they have shattered records in
recent years. In June of 2020, a town in Siberia registered temperatures of 100 degrees.
And in Australia, meteorologists have added a new color to their weather maps to show
areas where temperatures exceed 125 degrees. Rising sea levels have also increased the
risk of flooding because of storm surges and high tides. These are the foreshocks of climate
change.
And we are in for more changes in the future — up to 9 degrees Fahrenheit of average
global warming by the end of the century, in the worst-case scenario. For reference, the
difference in global average temperatures between now and the peak of the last ice age,
when ice sheets covered large parts of North America and Europe, is about 11 degrees
Fahrenheit.
Under the Paris Climate Agreement, which President Biden recently rejoined, countries
have agreed to try to limit total warming to between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 and
3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, since preindustrial times. And even this narrow range has huge
implications. According to scientific studies, the difference between 2.7 and 3.6 degrees
Fahrenheit will very likely mean the difference between coral reefs hanging on or going
extinct, and between summer sea ice persisting in the Arctic or disappearing completely. It
will also determine how many millions of people suffer from water scarcity and crop
failures, and how many are driven from their homes by rising seas. In other words, one
degree Fahrenheit makes a world of difference.
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Climate denialists often point to these natural climate changes as a way to cast doubt on
the idea that humans are causing climate to change today. However, that argument rests
on a logical fallacy. It’s like “seeing a murdered body and concluding that people have died
of natural causes in the past, so the murder victim must also have died of natural causes,” a
team of social scientists wrote in The Debunking Handbook, which explains the
misinformation strategies behind many climate myths.
Indeed, we know that different mechanisms caused the climate to change in the past.
Glacial cycles, for example, were triggered by periodic variations in Earth’s orbit, which
take place over tens of thousands of years and change how solar energy gets distributed
around the globe and across the seasons.
These orbital variations don’t affect the planet’s temperature much on their own. But they
set off a cascade of other changes in the climate system; for instance, growing or melting
vast Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and altering ocean circulation. These changes, in
turn, affect climate by altering the amount of snow and ice, which reflect sunlight, and by
changing greenhouse gas concentrations. This is actually part of how we know that
greenhouse gases have the ability to significantly affect Earth’s temperature.
For at least the last 800,000 years, atmospheric CO2 concentrations oscillated between
about 180 parts per million during ice ages and about 280 p.p.m. during warmer periods, as
carbon moved between oceans, forests, soils and the atmosphere. These changes occurred
in lock step with global temperatures, and are a major reason the entire planet warmed
and cooled during glacial cycles, not just the frozen poles.
Today, however, CO2 levels have soared to 420 p.p.m. — the highest they’ve been in at least
three million years. The concentration of CO2 is also increasing about 100 times faster than
it did at the end of the last ice age. This suggests something else is going on, and we know
what it is: Since the Industrial Revolution, humans have been burning fossil fuels and
releasing greenhouse gases that are heating the planet now (see Question 5 for more
details on how we know this, and Questions 4 and 8 for how we know that other natural
forces aren’t to blame).
Over the next century or two, societies and ecosystems will experience the consequences
of this climate change. But our emissions will have even more lasting geologic impacts:
According to some studies, greenhouse gas levels may have already warmed the planet
enough to delay the onset of the next glacial cycle for at least an additional 50,000 years.
We know that, from 1900 until the 1950s, solar irradiance increased. And studies suggest
that this had a modest effect on early 20th century climate, explaining up to 10 percent of
the warming that’s occurred since the late 1800s. However, in the second half of the
century, when the most warming occurred, solar activity actually declined. This disparity
is one of the main reasons we know that the sun is not the driving force behind climate
change.
Another reason we know that solar activity hasn’t caused recent warming is that, if it had,
all the layers of the atmosphere should be heating up. Instead, data show that the upper
atmosphere has actually cooled in recent decades — a hallmark of greenhouse warming.
So how about volcanoes? Eruptions cool the planet by injecting ash and aerosol particles
into the atmosphere that reflect sunlight. We’ve observed this effect in the years following
large eruptions. There are also some notable historical examples, like when Iceland’s Laki
volcano erupted in 1783, causing widespread crop failures in Europe and beyond, and the
“year without a summer,” which followed the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia.
Since volcanoes mainly act as climate coolers, they can’t really explain recent warming.
However, scientists say that they may also have contributed slightly to rising temperatures
in the early 20th century. That’s because there were several large eruptions in the late
1800s that cooled the planet, followed by a few decades with no major volcanic events
when warming caught up. During the second half of the 20th century, though, several big
eruptions occurred as the planet was heating up fast. If anything, they temporarily masked
some amount of human-caused warming.
The second way volcanoes can impact climate is by emitting carbon dioxide. This is
important on time scales of millions of years — it’s what keeps the planet habitable (see
Question 5 for more on the greenhouse effect). But by comparison to modern
anthropogenic emissions, even big eruptions like Krakatoa and Mount St. Helens are just a
drop in the bucket. After all, they last only a few hours or days, while we burn fossil fuels
24-7. Studies suggest that, today, volcanoes account for 1 to 2 percent of total CO2
emissions.
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How can winters and certain places be getting colder if the planet is
warming?
When a big snowstorm hits the United States, climate denialists can try to cite it as proof
that climate change isn’t happening. In 2015, Senator James Inhofe, an Oklahoma
Republican, famously lobbed a snowball in the Senate as he denounced climate science.
But these events don’t actually disprove climate change.
While there have been some memorable storms in recent years, winters are actually
warming across the world. In the United States, average temperatures in December,
January and February have increased by about 2.5 degrees this century.
On the flip side, record cold days are becoming less common than record warm days. In the
United States, record highs now outnumber record lows two-to-one. And ever-smaller
areas of the country experience extremely cold winter temperatures. (The same trends are
happening globally.)
So what’s with the blizzards? Weather always varies, so it’s no surprise that we still have
severe winter storms even as average temperatures rise. However, some studies suggest
that climate change may be to blame. One possibility is that rapid Arctic warming has
affected atmospheric circulation, including the fast-flowing, high-altitude air that usually
swirls over the North Pole (a.k.a. the Polar Vortex). Some studies suggest that these
changes are bringing more frigid temperatures to lower latitudes and causing weather
systems to stall, allowing storms to produce more snowfall. This may explain what we’ve
experienced in the U.S. over the past few decades, as well as a wintertime cooling trend in
Siberia, although exactly how the Arctic affects global weather remains a topic of ongoing
scientific debate.
Climate change may also explain the apparent paradox behind some of the other places on
Earth that haven’t warmed much. For instance, a splotch of water in the North Atlantic has
cooled in recent years, and scientists say they suspect that may be because ocean
circulation is slowing as a result of freshwater streaming off a melting Greenland. If this
circulation grinds almost to a halt, as it’s done in the geologic past, it would alter weather
patterns around the world.
Not all cold weather stems from some counterintuitive consequence of climate change. But
it’s a good reminder that Earth’s climate system is complex and chaotic, so the effects of
human-caused changes will play out differently in different places. That’s why “global
warming” is a bit of an oversimplification. Instead, some scientists have suggested that the
phenomenon of human-caused climate change would more aptly be called “global
weirding.”
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Rising temperatures have also increased the intensity of heavy precipitation events and
the flooding that often follows. For example, studies have found that, because warmer air
holds more moisture, Hurricane Harvey, which struck Houston in 2017, dropped between 15
and 40 percent more rainfall than it would have without climate change.
It’s still unclear whether climate change is changing the overall frequency of hurricanes,
but it is making them stronger. And warming appears to favor certain kinds of weather
patterns, like the “Midwest Water Hose” events that caused devastating flooding across
the Midwest in 2019.
It’s important to remember that in most natural disasters, there are multiple factors at
play. For instance, the 2019 Midwest floods occurred after a recent cold snap had frozen the
ground solid, preventing the soil from absorbing rainwater and increasing runoff into the
Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. These waterways have also been reshaped by levees and
other forms of river engineering, some of which failed in the floods.
Wildfires are another phenomenon with multiple causes. In many places, fire risk has
increased because humans have aggressively fought natural fires and prevented
Indigenous peoples from carrying out traditional burning practices. This has allowed fuel
to accumulate that makes current fires worse.
However, climate change still plays a major role by heating and drying forests, turning
them into tinderboxes. Studies show that warming is the driving factor behind the recent
increases in wildfires; one analysis found that climate change is responsible for doubling
the area burned across the American West between 1984 and 2015. And researchers say
that warming will only make fires bigger and more dangerous in the future.
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How bad are the effects of climate change going to be?
It depends on how aggressively we act to address climate change. If we continue with
business as usual, by the end of the century, it will be too hot to go outside during heat
waves in the Middle East and South Asia. Droughts will grip Central America, the
Mediterranean and southern Africa. And many island nations and low-lying areas, from
Texas to Bangladesh, will be overtaken by rising seas. Conversely, climate change could
bring welcome warming and extended growing seasons to the upper Midwest, Canada, the
Nordic countries and Russia. Farther north, however, the loss of snow, ice and permafrost
will upend the traditions of Indigenous peoples and threaten infrastructure.
It’s complicated, but the underlying message is simple: unchecked climate change will
likely exacerbate existing inequalities. At a national level, poorer countries will be hit
hardest, even though they have historically emitted only a fraction of the greenhouse gases
that cause warming. That’s because many less developed countries tend to be in tropical
regions where additional warming will make the climate increasingly intolerable for
humans and crops. These nations also often have greater vulnerabilities, like large coastal
populations and people living in improvised housing that is easily damaged in storms. And
they have fewer resources to adapt, which will require expensive measures like
redesigning cities, engineering coastlines and changing how people grow food.
Already, between 1961 and 2000, climate change appears to have harmed the economies of
the poorest countries while boosting the fortunes of the wealthiest nations that have done
the most to cause the problem, making the global wealth gap 25 percent bigger than it
would otherwise have been. Similarly, the Global Climate Risk Index found that lower
income countries — like Myanmar, Haiti and Nepal — rank high on the list of nations most
affected by extreme weather between 1999 and 2018. Climate change has also contributed
to increased human migration, which is expected to increase significantly.
Even within wealthy countries, the poor and marginalized will suffer the most. People with
more resources have greater buffers, like air-conditioners to keep their houses cool during
dangerous heat waves, and the means to pay the resulting energy bills. They also have an
easier time evacuating their homes before disasters, and recovering afterward. Lower
income people have fewer of these advantages, and they are also more likely to live in
hotter neighborhoods and work outdoors, where they face the brunt of climate change.
These inequalities will play out on an individual, community, and regional level. A 2017
analysis of the U.S. found that, under business as usual, the poorest one-third of counties,
which are concentrated in the South, will experience damages totaling as much as 20
percent of gross domestic product, while others, mostly in the northern part of the country,
will see modest economic gains. Solomon Hsiang, an economist at University of California,
Berkeley, and the lead author of the study, has said that climate change “may result in the
largest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich in the country’s history.”
Even the climate “winners” will not be immune from all climate impacts, though. Desirable
locations will face an influx of migrants. And as the coronavirus pandemic has
demonstrated, disasters in one place quickly ripple across our globalized economy. For
instance, scientists expect climate change to increase the odds of multiple crop failures
occurring at the same time in different places, throwing the world into a food crisis.
On top of that, warmer weather is aiding the spread of infectious diseases and the vectors
that transmit them, like ticks and mosquitoes. Research has also identified troubling
correlations between rising temperatures and increased interpersonal violence, and
climate change is widely recognized as a “threat multiplier” that increases the odds of
larger conflicts within and between countries. In other words, climate change will bring
many changes that no amount of money can stop. What could help is taking action to limit
warming.
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Let’s start with how much it will cost to address climate change. To keep warming well
below 2 degrees Celsius, the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement, society will have to
reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by the middle of this century. That will require
significant investments in things like renewable energy, electric cars and charging
infrastructure, not to mention efforts to adapt to hotter temperatures, rising sea-levels and
other unavoidable effects of current climate changes. And we’ll have to make changes fast.
Estimates of the cost vary widely. One recent study found that keeping warming to 2
degrees Celsius would require a total investment of between $4 trillion and $60 trillion,
with a median estimate of $16 trillion, while keeping warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius could
cost between $10 trillion and $100 trillion, with a median estimate of $30 trillion. (For
reference, the entire world economy was about $88 trillion in 2019.) Other studies have
found that reaching net zero will require annual investments ranging from less than 1.5
percent of global gross domestic product to as much as 4 percent. That’s a lot, but within
the range of historical energy investments in countries like the U.S.
Now, let’s consider the costs of unchecked climate change, which will fall hardest on the
most vulnerable. These include damage to property and infrastructure from sea-level rise
and extreme weather, death and sickness linked to natural disasters, pollution and
infectious disease, reduced agricultural yields and lost labor productivity because of rising
temperatures, decreased water availability and increased energy costs, and species
extinction and habitat destruction. Dr. Hsiang, the U.C. Berkeley economist, describes it as
“death by a thousand cuts.”
As a result, climate damages are hard to quantify. Moody’s Analytics estimates that even 2
degrees Celsius of warming will cost the world $69 trillion by 2100, and economists expect
the toll to keep rising with the temperature. In a recent survey, economists estimated the
cost would equal 5 percent of global G.D.P. at 3 degrees Celsius of warming (our trajectory
under current policies) and 10 percent for 5 degrees Celsius. Other research indicates that,
if current warming trends continue, global G.D.P. per capita will decrease between 7
percent and 23 percent by the end of the century — an economic blow equivalent to
multiple coronavirus pandemics every year. And some fear these are vast underestimates.
Already, studies suggest that climate change has slashed incomes in the poorest countries
by as much as 30 percent and reduced global agricultural productivity by 21 percent since
1961. Extreme weather events have also racked up a large bill. In 2020, in the United States
alone, climate-related disasters like hurricanes, droughts, and wildfires caused nearly $100
billion in damages to businesses, property and infrastructure, compared to an average of
$18 billion per year in the 1980s.
Given the steep price of inaction, many economists say that addressing climate change is a
better deal. It’s like that old saying: an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. In this
case, limiting warming will greatly reduce future damage and inequality caused by climate
change. It will also produce so-called co-benefits, like saving one million lives every year
by reducing air pollution, and millions more from eating healthier, climate-friendly diets.
Some studies even find that meeting the Paris Agreement goals could create jobs and
increase global G.D.P. And, of course, reining in climate change will spare many species
and ecosystems upon which humans depend — and which many people believe to have
their own innate value.
The challenge is that we need to reduce emissions now to avoid damages later, which
requires big investments over the next few decades. And the longer we delay, the more we
will pay to meet the Paris goals. One recent analysis found that reaching net-zero by 2050
would cost the U.S. almost twice as much if we waited until 2030 instead of acting now. But
even if we miss the Paris target, the economics still make a strong case for climate action,
because every additional degree of warming will cost us more — in dollars, and in lives.
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Illustration photographs by Esther Horvath, Max Whittaker, David Maurice Smith and Talia Herman for The New York
Times; Esther Horvath/Alfred-Wegener-Institut
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A version of this article appears in print on , Section D, Page 2 of the New York edition with the headline: Explaining The Science
Deep warming
Even if we ‘solve’ global warming, we face an older,
slower problem. Waste heat could radically alter
Earth’s future
by Mark Buchanan
Mark Buchanan is a physicist and science writer. Formerly an editor at Nature and
New Scientist, his work has been published in Science, The New York Times and
Wired, among others. He was formerly a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion and
currently writes a monthly column for Nature Physics. His latest book is Forecast:
What Physics, Meteorology, and the Natural Sciences Can Teach Us About Economics
(2013). He lives in in Dorset, England.
T he world will be transformed. By 2050, we will be driving electric cars and flying
in aircraft running on synthetic fuels produced through solar and wind energy.
New energy-efficient technologies, most likely harnessing artificial intelligence,
will dominate nearly all human activities from farming to heavy industry. e
fossil fuel industry will be in the final stages of a terminal decline. Nuclear fusion
and other new energy sources may have become widespread. Perhaps our planet
will even be orbited by massive solar arrays capturing cosmic energy from
sunlight and generating seemingly endless energy for all our needs.
at is one possible future for humanity. It’s an optimistic view of how radical
changes to energy production might help us slow or avoid the worst outcomes of
global warming. In a report from 1965, scientists from the US government
warned that our ongoing use of fossil fuels would cause global warming with
potentially disastrous consequences for Earth’s climate. e report, one of the
first government-produced documents to predict a major crisis caused by
humanity’s large-scale activities, noted that the likely consequences would
include higher global temperatures, the melting of the ice caps and rising sea
levels. ‘ rough his worldwide industrial civilisation,’ the report concluded, ‘Man
is unwittingly conducting a vast geophysical experiment’ – an experiment with a
highly uncertain outcome, but clear and important risks for life on Earth.
Since then, we’ve dithered and doubted and argued about what to do, but still
have not managed to take serious action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
which continue to rise. Governments around the planet have promised to phase
out emissions in the coming decades and transition to ‘green energy’. But global
temperatures may be rising faster than we expected: some climate scientists
worry that rapid rises could create new problems and positive feedback loops that
may accelerate climate destabilisation and make parts of the world uninhabitable
long before a hoped-for transition is possible.
Despite this bleak vision of the future, there are reasons for optimists to hope due
to progress on cleaner sources of renewable energy, especially solar power.
Around 2010, solar energy generation accounted for less than 1 per cent of the
electricity generated by humanity. But experts believe that, by 2027, due to falling
costs, better technology and exponential growth in new installations, solar power
will become the largest global energy source for producing electricity. If progress
on renewables continues, we might find a way to resolve the warming problem
linked to greenhouse gas emissions. By 2050, large-scale societal and ecological
changes might have helped us avoid the worst consequences of our extensive use
of fossil fuels.
It’s a momentous challenge. And it won’t be easy. But this story of transformation
only hints at the true depth of the future problems humanity will confront in
managing our energy use and its influence over our climate.
In many respects, this is great. We can now do more with less effort and achieve
things that were unimaginable to the 17th-century inventors of steam engines, let
alone to our hominin ancestors. We’ve made powerful mining machines,
superfast trains, lasers for use in telecommunications and brain-imaging
equipment. But these creations, while helping us, are also subtly heating the
planet.
All the energy we humans use – to heat our homes, run our factories, propel our
automobiles and aircraft, or to run our electronics – eventually ends up as heat in
the environment. In the shorter term, most of the energy we use flows directly
into the environment. It gets there through hot exhaust gases, friction between
tires and roads, the noises generated by powerful engines, which spread out,
dissipate, and eventually end up as heat. However, a small portion of the energy
we use gets stored in physical changes, such as in new steel, plastic or concrete.
It’s stored in our cities and technologies. In the longer term, as these materials
break down, the energy stored inside also finds its way into the environment as
heat. is is a direct consequence of the well-tested principles of
thermodynamics.
In the early decades of the 21st century, this heat created by simply using energy,
known as ‘waste heat’, is not so serious. It’s equivalent to roughly 2 per cent of the
planetary heating imbalance caused by greenhouse gases – for now. But, with the
passing of time, the problem is likely to get much more serious. at’s because
humans have a historical tendency to consistently discover and produce things,
creating entirely new technologies and industries in the process: domesticated
animals for farming; railways and automobiles; global air travel and shipping;
personal computers, the internet and mobile phones. e result of such activities
is that we end up using more and more energy, despite improved energy
efficiency in nearly every area of technology.
During the past two centuries at least (and likely for much longer), our yearly
energy use has doubled roughly every 30 to 50 years. Our energy use seems to be
growing exponentially, a trend that shows every sign of continuing. We keep
finding new things to do and almost everything we invent requires more and
more energy: consider the enormous energy demands of cryptocurrency mining
or the accelerating energy requirements of AI.
If this historical trend continues, scientists estimate waste heat will pose a
problem in roughly 150-200 years that is every bit as serious as the current
problem of global warming from greenhouse gases. However, deep heating will be
more pernicious as we won’t be able to avoid it by merely shifting from one kind
energy to another. A profound problem will loom before us: can we set strict limits
on all the energy we use? Can we reign in the seemingly inexorable expansion of
our activities to avoid destroying our own environment?
Deep warming is a problem hiding beneath global warming, but one that will
become prominent if and when we manage to solve the more pressing issue of
greenhouse gases. It remains just out of sight, which might explain why scientists
only became concerned about the ‘waste heat’ problem around 15 years ago.
O ne of the first people to describe the problem is the Harvard astrophysicist Eric
Chaisson, who discussed the issue of waste heat in a paper titled ‘Long-Term
Global Heating from Energy Usage’ (2008). He concluded that our technological
society may be facing a fundamental limit to growth due to ‘unavoidable global
heating … dictated solely by the second law of thermodynamics, a biogeophysical
effect often ignored when estimating future planetary warming scenarios’. When I
emailed Chaisson to learn more, he told me the history of his thinking on the
problem:
It was on a night flight, Paris-Boston [circa] 2006, after a UNESCO meeting
on the environment when it dawned on me that the IPCC were overlooking
something. While others on the plane slept, I crunched some numbers
literally on the back of an envelope … and then hoped I was wrong, that is,
hoped that I was incorrect in thinking that the very act of using energy heats
the air, however slightly now.
Chaisson drafted the idea up as a paper and sent it to an academic journal. Two
anonymous reviewers were eager for it to be published. ‘A third tried his
damnedest to kill it,’ Chaisson said, the reviewer claiming the findings were
‘irrelevant and distracting’. After it was finally published, the paper got some
traction when it was covered by a journalist and ran as a feature story on the front
page of e Boston Globe. e numbers Chaisson crunched, predictions of our
mounting waste heat, were even run on a supercomputer at the US National
Center for Atmospheric Research, by Mark Flanner, a professor of earth system
science. Flanner, Chaisson suspected at the time, was likely ‘out to prove it
wrong’. But, ‘after his machine crunched for many hours’, he saw the same results
that Chaisson had written on the back of an envelope that night in the plane.
Around the same time, also in 2008, two engineers, Nick Cowern and Chihak
Ahn, wrote a research paper entirely independent of Chaisson’s work, but with
similar conclusions. is was how I first came across the problem. Cowern and
Ahn’s study estimated the total amount of waste heat we’re currently releasing to
the environment, and found that it is, right now, quite small. But, like Chaisson,
they acknowledged that the problem would eventually become serious unless
steps were taken to avoid it.
at’s some of the early history of thinking in this area. But these two papers, and
a few other analyses since, point to the same unsettling conclusion: what I am
calling ‘deep warming’ will be a big problem for humanity at some point in the
not-too-distant future. e precise date is far from certain. It might be 150 years,
or 400, or 800, but it’s in the relatively near future, not the distant future of, say,
thousands or millions of years. is is our future.
e first law of thermodynamics simply states that the total quantity of energy
never changes but is conserved. Energy, in other words, never disappears, but
only changes form. e energy initially stored in an aircraft’s fuel, for example,
can be changed into the energetic motion of the plane. Turn on an electric heater,
and energy initially held in electric currents gets turned into heat, which spreads
into the air, walls and fabric of your house. e total energy remains the same, but
it markedly changes form.
Data on world energy consumption shows that, collectively, all humans on Earth
are currently using about 170,000 terawatt-hours (TWh), which is a lot of energy
in absolute terms – a terawatt-hour is the total energy consumed in one hour by
any process using energy at a rate of 1 trillion watts. is huge number isn’t
surprising, as it represents all the energy being used every day by the billions of
cars and homes around the world, as well as by industry, farming, construction,
air traffic and so on. But, in the early 21st century, the warming from this energy is
still much less than the planetary heating due to greenhouse gases.
Concentrations of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and methane are quite small,
and only make a fractional difference to how much of the Sun’s energy gets
trapped in the atmosphere, rather than making it back out to space. Even so, this
fractional difference has a huge effect because the stream of energy arriving from
the Sun to Earth is so large. Current estimates of this greenhouse energy
imbalance come to around 0.87 W per square meter, which translates into a total
energy figure about 50 times larger than our waste heat. at’s reassuring. But as
Cowern and Ahn wrote in their 2008 paper, things aren’t likely to stay this way
over time because our energy usage keeps rising. Unless, that is, we can find some
radical way to break the trend of using ever more energy.
O ne common objection to the idea of the deep warming is to claim that the
problem won’t really arise. ‘Don’t worry,’ someone might say, ‘with efficient
technology, we’re going to find ways to stop using more energy; though we’ll end
up doing more things in the future, we’ll use less energy.’ is may sound
plausible at first, because we are indeed getting more efficient at using energy in
most areas of technology. Our cars, appliances and laptops are all doing more
with less energy. If efficiency keeps improving, perhaps we can learn to run these
things with almost no energy at all? Not likely, because there are limits to energy
efficiency.
Over the past few decades, the efficiency of heating in homes – including oil and
gas furnaces, and boilers used to heat water – has increased from less than 50 per
cent to well above 90 per cent of what is theoretically possible. at’s good news,
but there’s not much more efficiency to be realised in basic heating. e efficiency
of lighting has also vastly improved, with modern LED lighting turning something
like 70 per cent of the applied electrical energy into light. We will gain some
efficiencies as older lighting gets completely replaced by LEDs, but there’s not a
lot of room left for future efficiency improvements. Similar efficiency limits arise in
the growing or cooking of food; in the manufacturing of cars, bikes and electronic
devices; in transportation, as we’re taken from place to place; in the running of
search engines, translation software, GPT-4 or other large-language models.
Improvements in energy efficiency can also have an inverse effect on our overall
energy use. It’s easy to think that if we make a technology more efficient, we’ll
then use less energy through the technology. But economists are deeply aware of
a paradoxical effect known as ‘rebound’, whereby improved energy efficiency, by
making the use of a technology cheaper, actually leads to more widespread use of
that technology – and more energy use too. e classic example, as noted by the
British economist William Stanley Jevons in his book e Coal Question (1865), is
the invention of the steam engine. is new technology could extract energy from
burning coal more efficiently, but it also made possible so many new applications
that the use of coal increased. A recent study by economists suggests that, across
the economy, such rebound effects might easily swallow at least 50 per cent of any
efficiency gains in energy use. Something similar has already happened with LED
lights, for which people have found thousands of new uses.
If gains in efficiency won’t buy us lots of time, how about other factors, such as a
reduction of the global population? Scientists generally believe that the current
human population of more than 8 billion people is well beyond the limits of our
finite planet, especially if a large fraction of this population aspires to the
resource-intensive lifestyles of wealthy nations. Some estimates suggest that a
more sustainable population might be more like 2 billion, which could reduce
energy use significantly, potentially by a factor of three or four. However, this isn’t
a real solution: again, as with the example of improved energy efficiency, a one-
time reduction of our energy consumption by a factor of three will quickly be
swallowed up by an inexorable rise in energy use. If Earth’s population were
suddenly reduced to 2 billion – about a quarter of the current population – our
energy gains would initially be enormous. But those gains would be erased in two
doubling times, or roughly 60-100 years, as our energy demands would grow
fourfold.
S o, why aren’t more people talking about this? e deep warming problem is
starting to get more attention. It was recently mentioned on Twitter by the
German climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf, who cautioned that nuclear fusion,
despite excitement over recent advances, won’t arrive in time to save us from our
waste heat, and might make the problem worse. By providing another cheap
source of energy, fusion energy could accelerate both the growth of our energy
use and the reckoning of deep warming. A student of Rahmstorf’s, Peter
Steiglechner, wrote his master’s thesis on the problem in 2018. Recognition of
deep warming and its long-term implications for humanity is spreading. But what
can we do about the problem?
Avoiding or delaying deep warming will involve slowing the rise of our waste heat,
which means restricting the amount of energy we use and also choosing energy
sources that exacerbate the problem as little as possible. Unlike the energy from
fossil fuels or nuclear power, which add to our waste energy burden, renewable
energy sources intercept energy that is already on its way to Earth, rather than
producing additional waste heat. In this sense, the deep warming problem is
another reason to pursue renewable energy sources such as solar or wind rather
than alternatives such as nuclear fusion, fission or even geothermal power. If we
derive energy from any of these sources, we’re unleashing new flows of energy
into the Earth system without making a compensating reduction. As a result, all
such sources will add to the waste heat problem. However, if renewable sources of
energy are deployed correctly, they need not add to our deposition of waste heat
in the environment. By using this energy, we produce no more waste heat than
would have been created by sunlight in the first place.
Take the example of wind energy. Sunlight first stirs winds into motion by heating
parts of the planet unequally, causing vast cells of convection. As wind churns
through the atmosphere, blows through trees and over mountains and waves,
most of its energy gets turned into heat, ending up in the microscopic motions of
molecules. If we harvest some of this wind energy through turbines, it will also be
turned into heat in the form of stored energy. But, crucially, no more heat is
generated than if there had been no turbines to capture the wind.
e same can hold true for solar energy. In an array of solar cells, if each cell only
collects the sunlight falling on it – which would ordinarily have been absorbed by
Earth’s surface – then the cells don’t alter how much waste heat gets produced as
they generate energy. e light that would have warmed Earth’s surface instead
goes into the solar cells, gets used by people for some purpose, and then later
ends up as heat. In this way we reduce the amount of heat being absorbed by
Earth by precisely the same amount as the energy we are extracting for human
use. We are not adding to overall planetary heating. is keeps the waste energy
burden unchanged, at least in the relatively near future, even if we go on
extracting and using ever larger amounts of energy.
I’m now of the opinion … that any energy that’s dug up on Earth –
including all fossil fuels of course, but also nuclear and ground-sourced
geothermal – will inevitably produce waste heat as a byproduct of
humankind’s use of energy. e only exception to that is energy arriving
from beyond Earth, this is energy here and now and not dug up, namely the
many solar energies (plural) caused by the Sun’s rays landing here daily …
e need to avoid waste heat is indeed the single, strongest, scientific
argument to embrace solar energies of all types.
But not just any method of gathering solar energy will avoid the deep warming
problem. Doing so requires careful engineering. For example, covering deserts
with solar panels would add to planetary heating because deserts reflect a lot of
incident light back out to space, so it is never absorbed by Earth (and therefore
doesn’t produce waste heat). Covering deserts in dark panels would absorb a lot
more energy than the desert floor and would heat the planet further.
We’ll also face serious problems in the long run if our energy appetite keeps
increasing. Futurists dream of technologies deployed in space where huge panels
would absorb sunlight that would otherwise have passed by Earth and never
entered our atmosphere. Ultimately, they believe, this energy could be beamed
down to Earth. Like nuclear energy, such technologies would add an additional
energy source to the planet without any compensating removal of heating from
the sunlight currently striking our planet’s surface. Any effort to produce more
energy than is normally available from sunlight at Earth’s surface will only make
our heating problems worse.
D eep warming is simply a consequence of the laws of physics and our inquisitive
nature. It seems to be in our nature to constantly learn and develop new things,
changing our environment in the process. For thousands of years, we have
harvested and exploited ever greater quantities of energy in this pursuit, and we
appear poised to continue along this path with the rapidly expanding use of
renewable energy sources – and perhaps even more novel sources such as
nuclear fusion. But this path cannot proceed indefinitely without consequences.
e logic that more energy equals more warming sets up a profound dilemma for
our future. e laws of physics and the habits ingrained in us from our long
evolutionary history are steering us toward trouble. We may have a technological
fix for greenhouse gas warming – just shift from fossil fuels to cleaner energy
sources – but there is no technical trick to get us out of the deep warming
problem. at won’t stop some scientists from trying.
Perhaps, believing that humanity is incapable of reducing its energy usage, we’ll
adopt a fantastic scheme to cool the planet, such as planetary-scale refrigeration
or using artificially engineered tornadoes to transport heat from Earth’s surface to
the upper atmosphere where it can be radiated away to space. As far-fetched as
such approaches sound, scientists have given some serious thought to these and
other equally bizarre ideas, which seem wholly in the realm of science fiction.
ey’re schemes that will likely make the problem worse not better.
An alternative would require a radical break with our past: using less energy.
Finding a way to use less energy would represent a truly fundamental rupture
with all of human history, something entirely novel. A rupture of this magnitude
won’t come easily. However, if we could learn to view restrictions on our energy
use as a non-negotiable element of life on Earth, we may still be able to do many
of the things that make us essentially human: learning, discovering, inventing,
creating. In this scenario, any helpful new technology that comes into use and
begins using lots of energy would require a balancing reduction in energy use
elsewhere. In such a way, we might go on with the future being perpetually new,
and possibly better.
None of this is easily achieved and will likely mirror our current struggles to come
to agreements on greenhouse gas heating. ere will be vicious squabbles,
arguments and profound polarisation, quite possibly major wars. Humanity will
never have faced a challenge of this magnitude, and we won’t face up to it quickly
or easily, I expect. But we must. Planetary heating is in our future – the very near
future and further out as well. Many people will find this conclusion surprisingly
hard to swallow, perhaps because it implies fundamental restrictions on our
future here on Earth: we can’t go on forever using more and more energy, and, at
the same time, expecting the planet’s climate to remain stable.
e world will likely be transformed by 2050. And, sometime after that, we will
need to transform the human story. e narrative arc of humanity must become a
tale of continuing innovation and learning, but also one of careful management. It
must become a story, in energy terms, of doing less, not more. ere’s no
technology for entirely escaping waste heat, only techniques.
A t the start of the 22nd century, humanity left Earth for the stars. e enormous
ecological and climatic devastation that had characterised the last 100 years had led to a
world barren and inhospitable; we had used up Earth entirely. Rapid melting of ice
caused the seas to rise, swallowing cities whole. Deforestation ravaged forests around the
globe, causing widespread destruction and loss of life. All the while, we continued to
burn the fossil fuels we knew to be poisoning us, and thus created a world no longer fit
for our survival. And so we set our sights beyond Earth’s horizons to a new world, a
place to begin again on a planet as yet untouched. But where are we going? What are
our chances of finding the elusive planet B, an Earth-like world ready and waiting to
welcome and shelter humanity from the chaos we created on the planet that brought us
into being? We built powerful astronomical telescopes to search the skies for planets
resembling our own, and very quickly found hundreds of Earth twins orbiting distant
stars. Our home was not so unique after all. e universe is full of Earths!
Given all our technological advances, it’s tempting to believe we are approaching
an age of interplanetary colonisation. But can we really leave Earth and all our
worries behind? No. All these stories are missing what makes a planet habitable to
us. What Earth-like means in astronomy textbooks and what it means to someone
considering their survival prospects on a distant world are two vastly different
things. We don’t just need a planet roughly the same size and temperature as
Earth; we need a planet that spent billions of years evolving with us. We depend
completely on the billions of other living organisms that make up Earth’s
biosphere. Without them, we cannot survive. Astronomical observations and
Earth’s geological record are clear: the only planet that can support us is the one
we evolved with. ere is no plan B. ere is no planet B. Our future is here, and it
doesn’t have to mean we’re doomed.
D eep down, we know this from instinct: we are happiest when immersed in our
natural environment. ere are countless examples of the healing power of
spending time in nature. Numerous articles speak of the benefits of ‘forest
bathing’; spending time in the woods has been scientifically shown to reduce
stress, anxiety and depression, and to improve sleep quality, thus nurturing both
our physical and mental health. Our bodies instinctively know what we need: the
thriving and unique biosphere that we have co-evolved with, that exists only here,
on our home planet.
ere is no planet B. ese days, everyone is throwing around this catchy slogan.
Most of us have seen it inscribed on an activist’s homemade placard, or heard it
from a world leader. In 2014, the United Nations’ then secretary general Ban
Ki-moon said: ‘ ere is no plan B because we do not have [a] planet B.’ e
French president Emmanuel Macron echoed him in 2018 in his historical address
to US Congress. ere’s even a book named after it. e slogan gives strong
impetus to address our planetary crisis. However, no one actually explains why
there isn’t another planet we could live on, even though the evidence from Earth
sciences and astronomy is clear. Gathering this observation-based information is
essential to counter an increasingly popular but flawed narrative that the only way
to ensure our survival is to colonise other planets.
Despite these clear challenges, proposals for terraforming Mars into a world
suitable for long-term human habitation abound. Mars is further from the Sun
than Earth, so it would require significantly more greenhouse gases to achieve a
temperature similar to Earth’s. ickening the atmosphere by releasing CO2 in
the Martian surface is the most popular ‘solution’ to the thin atmosphere on Mars.
However, every suggested method of releasing the carbon stored in Mars requires
technology and resources far beyond what we are currently capable of. What’s
more, a recent NASA study determined that there isn’t even enough CO2 on Mars
to warm it sufficiently.
Even if we could find enough CO2, we would still be left with an atmosphere we
couldn’t breathe. Earth’s atmosphere contains only 0.04 per cent CO2, and we
cannot tolerate an atmosphere high in CO2. For an atmosphere with Earth’s
atmospheric pressure, CO2 levels as high as 1 per cent can cause drowsiness in
humans, and once we reach levels of 10 per cent CO2, we will suffocate even if
there is abundant oxygen. e proposed absolute best-case scenario for
terraforming Mars leaves us with an atmosphere we are incapable of breathing;
and achieving it is well beyond our current technological and economic
capabilities.
F rom an astronomical perspective, Mars is Earth’s twin; and yet, it would take
vast resources, time and effort to transform it into a world that wouldn’t be
capable of providing even the bare minimum of what we have on Earth.
Suggesting that another planet could become an escape from our problems on
Earth suddenly seems absurd. But are we being pessimistic? Do we just need to
look further afield?
Next time you are out on a clear night, look up at the stars and choose one – you
are more likely than not to pick one that hosts planets. Astronomical observations
today confirm our age-old suspicion that all stars have their own planetary
systems. As astronomers, we call these exoplanets. What are exoplanets like?
Could we make any of them our home?
The solar system associated with star Kepler-90 has a similar configuration to our solar
system with small planets found orbiting close to their star, and the larger planets
found farther away. Courtesy NASA/Ames /Wendy Stenzel
Kepler observed more than 900 Earth-sized planets with a radius up to 1.25 times
that of our world. ese planets could be rocky (for the majority of them, we
haven’t yet determined their mass, so we can only make this inference based on
empirical relations between planetary mass and radius). Of these 900 or so Earth-
sized planets, 23 are in the habitable zone. e habitable zone is the range of
orbits around a star where a planet can be considered temperate: the planet’s
surface can support liquid water (provided there is sufficient atmospheric
pressure), a key ingredient of life as we know it. e concept of the habitable zone
is very useful because it depends on just two astrophysical parameters that are
relatively easy to measure: the distance of the planet to its parent star, and the
star’s temperature. It’s worth keeping in mind that the astronomical habitable
zone is a very simple concept and, in reality, there are many more factors at play
in the emergence of life; for example, this concept does not consider plate
tectonics, which are thought to be crucial to sustain life on Earth.
How many Earth-sized, temperate planets are there in our galaxy? Since we have
discovered only a handful of these planets so far, it is still quite difficult to estimate
their number. Current estimates of the frequency of Earth-sized planets rely on
extrapolating measured occurrence rates of planets that are slightly bigger and
closer to their parent star, as those are easier to detect. e studies are primarily
based on observations from the Kepler mission, which surveyed more than
100,000 stars in a systematic fashion. ese stars are all located in a tiny portion
of the entire sky; so, occurrence rate studies assume that this part of the sky is
representative of the full galaxy. ese are all reasonable assumptions for the
back-of-the-envelope estimate that we are about to make.
Several different teams carried out their own analyses and, on average, they found
that roughly one in three stars (30 per cent) hosts an Earth-sized, temperate
planet. e most pessimistic studies found a rate of 9 per cent, which is about one
in 10 stars, and the studies with the most optimistic results found that virtually all
stars host at least one Earth-sized, temperate planet, and potentially even several
of them.
At first sight, this looks like a huge range in values; but it’s worth taking a step
back and realising that we had absolutely no constraints whatsoever on this
number just 20 years ago. Whether there are other planets similar to Earth is a
question that we’ve been asking for millennia, and this is the very first time that
we are able to answer it based on actual observations. Before the Kepler mission,
we had no idea whether we would find Earth-sized, temperate planets around one
in 10, or one in a million stars. Now we know that planets with similar observable
properties to Earth are very common: at least one in 10 stars hosts these kinds of
planets.
An artist’s concept shows exoplanet Kepler-1649c orbiting around its host red dwarf star.
Courttesy NASA/Ames
Let’s now use these numbers to predict the number of Earth-sized, temperate
planets in our entire galaxy. For this, let’s take the average estimate of 30 per cent,
or roughly one in three stars. Our galaxy hosts approximately 300 billion stars,
which adds up to 90 billion roughly Earth-sized, roughly temperate planets. is
is a huge number, and it can be very tempting to think that at least one of these is
bound to look exactly like Earth.
One issue to consider is that other worlds are at unimaginable distances from us.
Our neighbour Mars is on average 225 million kilometres (about 140 million
miles) away. Imagine a team of astronauts travelling in a vehicle similar to NASA’s
robotic New Horizons probe, one of humankind’s fastest spacecrafts – which flew
by Pluto in 2015. With New Horizons’ top speed of around 58,000 kph, it would
take at least 162 days to reach Mars. Beyond our solar system, the closest star to
us is Proxima Centauri, at a distance of 40 trillion kilometres. Going in the same
space vehicle, it would take our astronaut crew 79,000 years to reach planets that
might exist around our nearest stellar neighbour.
S till, let’s for a moment optimistically imagine that we find a perfect Earth twin: a
planet that really is exactly like Earth. Let’s imagine that some futuristic form of
technology exists, ready to whisk us away to this new paradise. Keen to explore
our new home, we eagerly board our rocket, but on landing we soon feel uneasy.
Where is the land? Why is the ocean green and not blue? Why is the sky orange
and thick with haze? Why are our instruments detecting no oxygen in the
atmosphere? Was this not supposed to be a perfect twin of Earth?
As it turns out, we have landed on a perfect twin of the Archean Earth, the aeon
during which life first emerged on our home world. is new planet is certainly
habitable: lifeforms are floating around the green, iron-rich oceans, breathing out
methane that is giving the sky that unsettling hazy, orange colour. is planet
sure is habitable – just not to us. It has a thriving biosphere with plenty of life, but
not life like ours. In fact, we would have been unable to survive on Earth for
around 90 per cent of its history; the oxygen-rich atmosphere that we depend on
is a recent feature of our planet.
e earliest part of our planet’s history, known as the Hadean aeon, begins with
the formation of the Earth. Named after the Greek underworld due to our planet’s
fiery beginnings, the early Hadean would have been a terrible place with molten
lava oceans and an atmosphere of vaporised rock. Next came the Archean aeon,
beginning 4 billion years ago, when the first life on Earth flourished. But, as we
just saw, the Archean would be no home for a human. e world where our
earliest ancestors thrived would kill us in an instant. After the Archean came the
Proterozoic, 2.5 billion years ago. In this aeon, there was land, and a more familiar
blue ocean and sky. What’s more, oxygen finally began to accumulate in the
atmosphere. But let’s not get too excited: the level of oxygen was less than 10 per
cent of what we have today. e air would still have been impossible for us to
breathe. is time also experienced global glaciation events known as snowball
Earths, where ice covered the globe from poles to equator for millions of years at a
time. Earth has spent more of its time fully frozen than the length of time that we
humans have existed.
Earth’s current aeon, the Phanerozoic, began only around 541 million years ago
with the Cambrian explosion – a period of time when life rapidly diversified. A
plethora of life including the first land plants, dinosaurs and the first flowering
plants all appeared during this aeon. It is only within this aeon that our
atmosphere became one that we can actually breathe. is aeon has also been
characterised by multiple mass extinction events that wiped out as much as
90 per cent of all species over short periods of time. e factors that brought on
such devastation are thought to be a combination of large asteroid impacts, and
volcanic, chemical and climate changes occurring on Earth at the time. From the
point of view of our planet, the changes leading to these mass extinctions are
relatively minor. However, for lifeforms at the time, such changes shattered their
world and very often led to their complete extinction.
Looking at Earth’s long history, we find that we would have been incapable of
living on our planet for most of its existence. Anatomically modern humans
emerged less than 400,000 years ago; we have been around for less than 0.01 per
cent of the Earth’s story. e only reason we find Earth habitable now is because
of the vast and diverse biosphere that has for hundreds of millions of years
evolved with and shaped our planet into the home we know today. Our continued
survival depends on the continuation of Earth’s present state without any nasty
bumps along the way. We are complex lifeforms with complex needs. We are
entirely dependent on other organisms for all our food and the very air we
breathe. e collapse of Earth’s ecosystems is the collapse of our life-support
systems. Replicating everything Earth offers us on another planet, on timescales
of a few human lifespans, is simply impossible.
Some argue that we need to colonise other planets to ensure the future of the
human race. In 5 billion years, our Sun, a middle-aged star, will become a red
giant, expanding in size and possibly engulfing Earth. In 1 billion years, the
gradual warming of our Sun is predicted to cause Earth’s oceans to boil away.
While this certainly sounds worrying, 1 billion years is a long, long time. A billion
years ago, Earth’s landmasses formed the supercontinent Rodinia, and life on
Earth consisted in single-celled and small multicellular organisms. No plants or
animals yet existed. e oldest Homo sapiens remains date from 315,000 years
ago, and until 12,000 years ago all humans lived as hunter-gatherers.
e industrial revolution happened less than 500 years ago. Since then, human
activity in burning fossil fuels has been rapidly changing the climate, threatening
human lives and damaging ecosystems across the globe. Without rapid action,
human-caused climate change is predicted to have devastating global
consequences within the next 50 years. is is the looming crisis that humanity
must focus on. If we can’t learn to work within the planetary system that we
evolved with, how do we ever hope to replicate these deep processes on another
planet? Considering how different human civilisations are today from even
5,000 years ago, worrying about a problem that humans may have to tackle in a
billion years is simply absurd. It would be far simpler to go back in time and ask
the ancient Egyptians to invent the internet there and then. It’s also worth
considering that many of the attitudes towards space colonisation are worryingly
close to the same exploitative attitudes that have led us to the climate crisis we
now face.
Earth is the home we know and love not because it is Earth-sized and temperate.
No, we call this planet our home thanks to its billion-year-old relationship with
life. Just as people are shaped not only by their genetics, but by their culture and
relationships with others, planets are shaped by the living organisms that emerge
and thrive on them. Over time, Earth has been dramatically transformed by life
into a world where we, humans, can prosper. e relationship works both ways:
while life shapes its planet, the planet shapes its life. Present-day Earth is our life-
support system, and we cannot live without it.
While Earth is currently our only example of a living planet, it is now within our
technological reach to potentially find signs of life on other worlds. In the coming
decades, we will likely answer the age-old question: are we alone in the Universe?
Finding evidence for alien life promises to shake the foundations of our
understanding of our own place in the cosmos. But finding alien life does not
mean finding another planet that we can move to. Just as life on Earth has evolved
with our planet over billions of years, forming a deep, unique relationship that
makes the world we see today, any alien life on a distant planet will have a
similarly deep and unique bond with its own planet. We can’t expect to be able to
crash the party and find a warm welcome.