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Making Negotiations Predictable - What Science Tells (2012
Making Negotiations Predictable - What Science Tells (2012
PREDICTABLE
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MAKING
NEGOTIATIONS
PREDICTABLE
What Science Tells Us?
David De Cremer
China Europe International Business School (CEIBS), China
and
Madan M. Pillutla
London Business School (LBS), UK
© David De Cremer and Madan M. Pillutla 2012
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2012 978-1-137-02478-7
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this
publication may be made without written permission.
No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted
save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence
permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency,
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Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication
may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.
The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this
work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
First published 2012 by
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10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12
CONTENTS
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
References 155
Biography 167
Index 169
v
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
2
INTRODUCTION
3
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
4
INTRODUCTION
5
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
6
INTRODUCTION
7
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
8
INTRODUCTION
9
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
10
INTRODUCTION
11
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
12
CHAPTER 2
NEGOTIATION BASICS:
STRUCTURE AND PROCESS
13
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
14
N E G O T I AT I O N B A S I C S : S T R U C T U R E A N D P R O C E S S
15
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
16
N E G O T I AT I O N B A S I C S : S T R U C T U R E A N D P R O C E S S
17
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
18
N E G O T I AT I O N B A S I C S : S T R U C T U R E A N D P R O C E S S
19
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
20
N E G O T I AT I O N B A S I C S : S T R U C T U R E A N D P R O C E S S
21
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
22
N E G O T I AT I O N B A S I C S : S T R U C T U R E A N D P R O C E S S
23
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
24
N E G O T I AT I O N B A S I C S : S T R U C T U R E A N D P R O C E S S
25
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
26
N E G O T I AT I O N B A S I C S : S T R U C T U R E A N D P R O C E S S
27
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
28
N E G O T I AT I O N B A S I C S : S T R U C T U R E A N D P R O C E S S
29
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
30
N E G O T I AT I O N B A S I C S : S T R U C T U R E A N D P R O C E S S
31
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
32
N E G O T I AT I O N B A S I C S : S T R U C T U R E A N D P R O C E S S
33
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
34
N E G O T I AT I O N B A S I C S : S T R U C T U R E A N D P R O C E S S
35
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
36
N E G O T I AT I O N B A S I C S : S T R U C T U R E A N D P R O C E S S
37
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
38
N E G O T I AT I O N B A S I C S : S T R U C T U R E A N D P R O C E S S
39
CHAPTER 3
COGNITIVE ERRORS OF
NEGOTIATORS
40
C O G N I T I V E E R R O R S O F N E G O T I AT O R S
41
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
42
C O G N I T I V E E R R O R S O F N E G O T I AT O R S
43
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
44
C O G N I T I V E E R R O R S O F N E G O T I AT O R S
45
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
46
C O G N I T I V E E R R O R S O F N E G O T I AT O R S
47
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
48
C O G N I T I V E E R R O R S O F N E G O T I AT O R S
49
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
OVERCONFIDENCE
50
C O G N I T I V E E R R O R S O F N E G O T I AT O R S
51
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
52
C O G N I T I V E E R R O R S O F N E G O T I AT O R S
53
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
ESCALATION
54
C O G N I T I V E E R R O R S O F N E G O T I AT O R S
55
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
56
C O G N I T I V E E R R O R S O F N E G O T I AT O R S
57
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
■ Instructions
■ The MLS listing sheet
58
C O G N I T I V E E R R O R S O F N E G O T I AT O R S
go for.
59
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
60
C O G N I T I V E E R R O R S O F N E G O T I AT O R S
61
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
62
C O G N I T I V E E R R O R S O F N E G O T I AT O R S
63
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
IMPATIENCE!
64
C O G N I T I V E E R R O R S O F N E G O T I AT O R S
will give the other party the chance to put you under
increased pressure to accept their final offer.
In all negotiations, you eventually arrive at a series
of breaking points – also known as deal-breakers. The
deal-breakers are crucial issues which signal whether
or not you are going to arrive at a deal with the other
party. If you are known as a negotiator who likes to
get things done quickly, this is the moment when
an attentive opponent will shove a nice, big, juicy
deal-breaker under your nose. If you continue to ‘fol-
low your instincts’ – which will increase the influence
of biases – you will most probably accept this offer.
For this reason, it is again advisable to spread these
breaking point moments over a longer period of time.
So when the deal-breaker offer is made, ask for a fur-
ther meeting at a later date. This will give you time
to re-examine and re-evaluate the offer from different
perspectives (system-2 thinking: see Chapter 4).
If you do decide to accept the deal-breaker, it
is important to realize that this will do noth-
ing to enhance your reputation as a negotiator.
No negotiator wants to be known as ‘a fast Eddy’,
a person who rushes through his or her deals too
quickly. The outside world will view this as a lack of
professionalism and an unwillingness to take respon-
sibility. As a result, you will have more difficulties in
your future negotiations. You will be less able to put
others under pressure, since everyone knows that all
they have to do is to wait. In short, your threats will
carry no punch. It is a vicious circle from which there
is no escape.
65
CHAPTER 4
EMOTIONS AND
INTUITION
66
EMOTIONS AND INTUITION
67
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
Intrapersonal effects
68
EMOTIONS AND INTUITION
69
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
Interpersonal effects
70
EMOTIONS AND INTUITION
71
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
72
EMOTIONS AND INTUITION
73
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
74
EMOTIONS AND INTUITION
75
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
76
EMOTIONS AND INTUITION
77
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
78
EMOTIONS AND INTUITION
79
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
80
CHAPTER 5
THE IMPACT OF FRAMING
ON NEGOTIATIONS
81
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
SOCIAL FRAMES
82
T H E I M PA C T O F F R A M I N G O N N E G O T I AT I O N S
83
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
84
T H E I M PA C T O F F R A M I N G O N N E G O T I AT I O N S
85
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
86
T H E I M PA C T O F F R A M I N G O N N E G O T I AT I O N S
87
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
88
T H E I M PA C T O F F R A M I N G O N N E G O T I AT I O N S
89
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
90
T H E I M PA C T O F F R A M I N G O N N E G O T I AT I O N S
SOCIAL PRESSURE!
91
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
92
T H E I M PA C T O F F R A M I N G O N N E G O T I AT I O N S
93
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
WHERE DO WE NEGOTIATE?
94
T H E I M PA C T O F F R A M I N G O N N E G O T I AT I O N S
95
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
96
T H E I M PA C T O F F R A M I N G O N N E G O T I AT I O N S
97
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
98
T H E I M PA C T O F F R A M I N G O N N E G O T I AT I O N S
99
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
100
CHAPTER 6
TRUST AND DISTRUST
101
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
102
TRUST AND DISTRUST
this implies that one of the parties must take the risk
that starts the trust-building process. A key question
is therefore: who will take the first step to develop a
trusting relationship? People often say that ‘you can
only get trust if you give trust’. However, negotiating
practice would suggest that most negotiators ignore
this well-intentioned advice. On the contrary, they
seem to regard healthy suspicion as a more appropri-
ate opening move. It would be naive to do otherwise –
or so they claim. But are they really right? We know
from research that trust is very fragile. We also know
that the way you view trust also has a major influence
on the extent to which you yourself will be regarded as
trustworthy. This means that it is difficult to establish
trust on the basis of minimal commitment.
It is time for another game scenario (82). Imagine
that you have 10 pounds and that you can divide
this money between yourself and a second party.
Every euro that you give to this other party is mul-
tiplied by a factor of three. You decide to give him or
her 6 pounds. After the multiplication by three, this
means that the other party now has 18 euros in their
possession, leaving you with just 4 pounds. The other
party is now asked to redivide the 18 euros with you.
The rules of the game mean that if he or she divides
the money fairly and equally (a 9–9 split), you will
end up with more money (4 + 9 = 13 pounds) than if
you had not given any money during the first division
(in which case, you would have kept just 10 pounds).
For this reason, this game is known as ‘the trust game’:
by giving trust you increase the final rewards for both
parties. Sounds great, doesn’t it? But does it match
reality? Is this what people really do?
As you might expect, different people adapt differ-
ent strategies when playing this game. In general, the
103
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
104
TRUST AND DISTRUST
105
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
REPAIRING TRUST
106
TRUST AND DISTRUST
107
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
108
TRUST AND DISTRUST
109
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
110
TRUST AND DISTRUST
111
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
112
TRUST AND DISTRUST
113
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
114
TRUST AND DISTRUST
115
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
116
TRUST AND DISTRUST
117
CHAPTER 7
POWER
118
POWER
119
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
120
POWER
121
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
122
POWER
123
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
124
POWER
125
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
126
POWER
127
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
128
POWER
129
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
130
POWER
131
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
132
POWER
133
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
134
POWER
135
CHAPTER 8
FAIRNESS
136
FAIRNESS
137
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
138
FAIRNESS
139
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
140
FAIRNESS
141
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
142
FAIRNESS
143
CHAPTER 9
THE ‘MOVING FORWARD
TO AGREEMENTS’ SURVEY∗
∗
c DAVID DE CREMER
144
THE ‘MOVING FORWARD TO AGREEMENTS’ SURVEY
1 = totally inapplicable to me
2 = not applicable to me
3 = not really applicable to me
4 = neutral
145
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
5 = slightly applicable to me
6 = applicable to me
7 = fully applicable to me
LEVEL 1: MINDSET
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
146
THE ‘MOVING FORWARD TO AGREEMENTS’ SURVEY
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
147
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
148
THE ‘MOVING FORWARD TO AGREEMENTS’ SURVEY
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
LEVEL 2: PROCESS
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
149
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
150
THE ‘MOVING FORWARD TO AGREEMENTS’ SURVEY
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
151
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
152
THE ‘MOVING FORWARD TO AGREEMENTS’ SURVEY
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
153
M A K I N G N E G O T I AT I O N S P R E D I C TA B L E
154
REFERENCES
155
REFERENCES
156
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REFERENCES
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BIOGRAPHY
167
BIOGRAPHY
168
INDEX
169
INDEX
170
INDEX
171
INDEX
172
INDEX
173
INDEX
174
INDEX
175
INDEX
176
INDEX
177
INDEX
178