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Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing 528
Wander Jager
Rineke Verbrugge
Andreas Flache
Gert de Roo
Lex Hoogduin
Charlotte Hemelrijk Editors
Advances in Social
Simulation 2015
Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing
Volume 528
Series Editor
Janusz Kacprzyk, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
e-mail: kacprzyk@ibspan.waw.pl
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11156

About this Series
The series “Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing” contains publications on theory,
applications, and design methods of Intelligent Systems and Intelligent Computing. Virtually
all disciplines such as engineering, natural sciences, computer and information science, ICT,
economics, business, e-commerce, environment, healthcare, life science are covered. The list
of topics spans all the areas of modern intelligent systems and computing.
The publications within “Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing” are primarily
textbooks and proceedings of important conferences, symposia and congresses. They cover
significant recent developments in the field, both of a foundational and applicable character.
An important characteristic feature of the series is the short publication time and world-wide
distribution. This permits a rapid and broad dissemination of research results.
Advisory Board
Chairman
Nikhil R. Pal, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India
e-mail: nikhil@isical.ac.in
Members
Rafael Bello Perez, Universidad Central “Marta Abreu” de Las Villas, Santa Clara, Cuba
e-mail: rbellop@uclv.edu.cu
Emilio S. Corchado, University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain
e-mail: escorchado@usal.es
Hani Hagras, University of Essex, Colchester, UK
e-mail: hani@essex.ac.uk
László T. Kóczy, Széchenyi István University, Győr, Hungary
e-mail: koczy@sze.hu
Vladik Kreinovich, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, USA
e-mail: vladik@utep.edu
Chin-Teng Lin, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan
e-mail: ctlin@mail.nctu.edu.tw
Jie Lu, University of Technology, Sydney, Australia
e-mail: Jie.Lu@uts.edu.au
Patricia Melin, Tijuana Institute of Technology, Tijuana, Mexico
e-mail: epmelin@hafsamx.org
Nadia Nedjah, State University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
e-mail: nadia@eng.uerj.br
Ngoc Thanh Nguyen, Wroclaw University of Technology, Wroclaw, Poland
e-mail: Ngoc-Thanh.Nguyen@pwr.edu.pl
Jun Wang, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong
e-mail: jwang@mae.cuhk.edu.hk
Wander Jager • Rineke Verbrugge • Andreas Flache
Gert de Roo • Lex Hoogduin • Charlotte Hemelrijk
Editors
Advances in Social
Simulation 2015
123
Editors
Wander Jager Rineke Verbrugge
University College Groningen Faculty of Mathematics and Natural
University of Groningen Sciences
Groningen, The Netherlands Institute of Artificial Intelligence
University of Groningen
Andreas Flache Groningen, The Netherlands
Faculty for Social and Behavioural
Sciences Gert de Roo
Department of Sociology Faculty of Spatial Sciences
University of Groningen Department of Spatial Planning
Groningen, The Netherlands and Environment
Lex Hoogduin Groningen, The Netherlands
Faculty of Economics and Business
University of Groningen Charlotte Hemelrijk
Groningen, The Netherlands Faculty of Mathematics and Natural
Sciences
Department of Behavioural Ecology
and Self-organisation
Groningen, The Netherlands
ISSN 2194-5357 ISSN 2194-5365 (electronic)

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing
ISBN 978-3-319-47252-2 ISBN 978-3-319-47253-9 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-47253-9
Library of Congress Control Number: 2016962193
© Springer International Publishing AG 2017

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of
the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,
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The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Introduction
Social simulation is a rapidly evolving field. Social scientists are increasingly

interested in social simulation as a tool to tackle the complex nonlinear dynamics of
society. As such, it comes as no surprise that scientists employing social simulation
techniques are targeting a wide variety of topics and disciplinary fields. The
management of natural resources, financial-economical systems, traffic, biological
systems, social conflict, and war—they are all examples of phenomena where
nonlinear developments play an important role. Social simulation, often using
the methodology of agent-based modeling, has proven to be a new and powerful
methodology to address these processes, thus offering new insights in both the
emergence and the management of nonlinear processes. Moreover, offering a formal
and dynamical description of behavioral systems, social simulation also facilitates
the interaction between behavioral sciences and other domain-related scientific dis-
ciplines such as ecology, history, agriculture, and traffic management, to just name
a few examples. The increased capacity for simulating social systems in a valid
manner contributes to the collaboration of different disciplines in understanding and
managing various societal issues.
The European Social Simulation Association, founded in 2003, is a scientific
society aimed at promoting the development of social simulation research, education
of young scientists in the field, and application of social simulation. One of its
activities is the organization of an annual conference. From September 14th to
18th in 2015, the 11th Social Simulation Conference was organized in Groningen,
the Netherlands. The hosting organization was the Groningen Center for Social
Complexity Studies.
This book highlights recent developments in the field of social simulation as
presented at the conference. It covers advances in both applications and methods
of social simulation. Because the field of social simulation is evolving rapidly,
developments from a variety of perspectives have been brought together in this
book, which has a multidisciplinary scope. Yet all the contributions in this book
share a common interest: the understanding of how interactions between a multitude
of individuals give rise to complex social phenomena, and how these phenomena
in turn affect individual behavior. This multidisciplinarity is of vital importance,
v
vi Introduction
because it facilitates the communication between different disciplinary areas.

The value of disciplinary collaboration and cross-fertilization in social simulation
research is demonstrated by many contributions in this volume. To mention just one
of the many areas for which this holds: insights from studying the socio-ecological
dynamics of fisheries may prove to be relevant in understanding conflicts in human
organizations as well.
Concerning the topics addressed in this book, the reader will find a wide
variety of issues that are addressed using social simulation models. The topic of
complexities of economic systems is addressed in a number of chapters, providing
a perspective on our understanding of the nonlinear characteristics of economic
systems on various levels. Opinion dynamics is another topic on which numerous
contributions focus. Studying opinion dynamics is highly relevant to develop a
deeper understanding of societal polarization, the emergence and resolution of con-
flict, and civil violence. A range of contributions addresses the interaction of humans
with their environment, most notably the social dynamics of natural resource use and
ecosystem management. Applied topics deal with fish stocks and land use. Closely
related to this are contributions dealing with food production and consumption, a
theme that in turn has important consequences for land use. Another field with
important societal impact addressed by papers in this volume is transportation,
where technology development and human behavior interact likewise. This is related
to the rapid developments that we currently witness in systems for the production
and consumption of energy. The energy transition can be seen as a typical example
of a nonlinear process where social simulation contributes to a deeper understanding
that may help to develop more effective managerial and societal strategies in
the future. Besides looking at current societal and socio-ecological issues, social
simulation is increasingly used to understand developments that happened in the
past. In this book, the reader will find chapters demonstrating how social simulation,
as a methodology, may be valuable in understanding historical developments.
Besides applications of social simulation models on topical domains, this book
also covers relevant developments in the methodology of social simulation. An
area that receives increasing attention in the literature is the empirical validation of
simulation models. Various contributions address the question how empirical data
can be used in further improving the reliability of social simulation models. Also
attention is devoted to the use of behavioral theory in social simulation models,
which requires a translation from more descriptive and correlational models to a
formal dynamic model of behavior. Related to this is the topic of construction of
artificial populations to be used in experimenting with models of societal processes.
Finally, in making models more accessible for the general public, attention is given
to running social simulation models in browsers, which would make them much
more accessible.
This book is an important source for readers interested in cutting-edge devel-
opments exemplifying how simulation of social interaction contributes to under-
standing and managing complex social phenomena. The editors wish to thank all
authors, the members of the scientific committee and the auxiliary reviewers who
were responsible for reviewing all the papers submitted for the conference, as well
Introduction vii
as the organizers of the special sessions. For a list of all people involved in shaping
the contents of the conference and reviewing the submissions, see the next pages.
The papers published in this volume are a representative selection from a broader
set of research papers presented at Social Simulation 2015.
Groningen, The Netherlands Wander Jager

Rineke Verbrugge
Andreas Flache
Gert de Roo
Lex Hoogduin
Charlotte Hemelrijk
PC Members
Shah-Jamal Alam
Floortje Alkemade
Frédéric Amblard
Tina Balke
Stefano Balietti
Riccardo Boero
Melania Borit
Giangiacomo Bravo
Edmund Chattoe-Brown
Emile Chappin
Guillaume Deffuant
Virginia Dignum
Frank Dignum
Bruce Edmonds
Corinna Elsenbroich
Andreas Ernst
Tatiana Filatova
Armando Geller
Rosanna Garcia
José-Ignacio García-Valdecasas
José-Manuel Galán
Nigel Gilbert
William Griffin
Rainer Hegselmann
Gertjan Hofstede
Luis Izquierdo
Marco Janssen
Bogumił Kamiński
ix
x
Jean-Daniel Kant
Bill Kennedy
Andreas Koch
Friedrich Krebs
Setsuya Kurahashi
Jeroen Linssen
Iris Lorscheid
Michael Mäs
Ruth Meyer
Michael Möhring
Jean-Pierre Muller
Martin Neumann
Emma Norling
Mario Paolucci
Jakub Piskorski
Gary Polhill
Juliette Rouchier
Jordi Sabater-Mir
Frank Schweitzer
Roman Seidl
Jaime Sichman
Flaminio Squazzoni
Przemyslaw Szufel
Karoly Takacs
Shingo Takahashi
Richard Taylor
Pietro Terna
Klaus Troitzsch
Harko Verhagen
Nanda Wijermans
Auxiliary Reviewers
Adiya Abisheva
Floor Ambrosius
Apostolos Ampatzolglou
Priscilla Avegliano
Quang Bao Le
Gustavo Campos
Thomas Feliciani
Monica Gariup
Amineh Ghorbani
Bao Le
xi
Robin Mills
Ivan Puga-Gonzalez
Mart van der Kam
Mark Kramer
Pavlin Mavrodiev
Keiko Mori
Vahan Nanumyan
Tomasz Olczak
Sjoukje Osinga
Francine Pacilly
Klara Pigmans
José Santos
Simon Schweighofer
Annalisa Stefanelli
Yoshida Takahashi
Keiichi Ueda
Harmen de Weerd
Nicolas Wider
Special Session Organizers
– ESSA@Work: Nanda Wijermans, Geeske Scholz, and Iljana Schubert

– Social Simulation and Serious Games: Jeroen Linssen and Melania Borit
– Simulation Model Analysis (SIGMA): Bogumił Kamiński and Laszlo Gulyas
– Social Conflict and Social Simulation: Armando Geller and Martin Neumann
– Applications in Policy Modelling: Petra Ahrweiler, Nigel Gilbert, Bruce
Edmonds, and Ruth Meyer
– Cognitive Models in Social Simulation: Nanda Wijermans and Cara Kahl
– Social Simulations of Land, Water and Energy: Tatiana Filatova
– Simulating the Social Processes of Science: Bruce Edmonds
– Modelling Routines and Practices: Bruce Edmonds
– Qual2Rule—Using Qualitative Data to Inform Behavioural Rules: Melania Borit
– Modelling Social Science Aspects of Fisheries: Melania Borit
– Simulation of Economic Processes: Alexander Tarvid
– Affiliation, Status and Power in Society: Gert Jan Hofstede, Sjoukje Osinga, and
Floor Ambrosius
xiii
Contents
From Field Data to Attitude Formation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Kei-Léo Brousmiche, Jean-Daniel Kant, Nicolas Sabouret,
and François Prenot-Guinard
A Simple-to-Use BDI Architecture for Agent-Based Modeling
and Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Philippe Caillou, Benoit Gaudou, Arnaud Grignard,
Chi Quang Truong, and Patrick Taillandier
Food Incident Interactive Training Tool: A Serious Game
for Food Incident Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Paolo Campo, Elizabeth York, Amy Woodward,
Paul Krause, and Angela Druckman
A Cybernetic Model of Macroeconomic Disequilibrium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Ernesto Carrella
How Should Agent-Based Modelling Engage With Historical
Processes? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Edmund Chattoe-Brown and Simone Gabbriellini
Evolutionary Cooperation in a Multi-agent Society. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Marjolein de Vries and Pieter Spronck
Design of an Empirical Agent-Based Model to Explore Rural
Household Food Security Within a Developing Country Context . . . . . . . . . . 81
Samantha Dobbie and Stefano Balbi
Comparing Income Replacement Rate by Prefecture
in Japanese Pension System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
Nisuo Du and Tadahiko Murata
Hybrid Simulation Approach for Technological Innovation
Policy Making in Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
Maryam Ebrahimi
xv
xvi Contents
Modelling Contextual Decision-Making in Dilemma Games. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

Harko Verhagen, Corinna Elsenbroich, and Kurt Fällström
Preliminary Results from an Agent-Based Model of the Daily
Commute in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire, UK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Jiaqi Ge and Gary Polhill
Agent-Based Modelling of Military Communications
on the Roman Frontier . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
Nicholas M. Gotts
The Leviathan Model Without Gossips and Vanity:
The Richness of Influence Based on Perceived Hierarchy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Sylvie Huet and Guillaume Deffuant
A Calibration to Properly Design a Model Integrating
Residential Mobility and Migration in a Rural Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Sylvie Huet, Nicolas Dumoulin, and Guillaume Deffuant
Modeling Contagion of Behavior in Friendship Networks as
Coordination Games . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
Tobias Jordan, Philippe de Wilde, and Fernando Buarque de Lima-Neto
A Model of Social and Economic Capital in Social Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
Bogumił Kamiński, Jakub Growiec, and Katarzyna Growiec
The Impact of Macro-scale Determinants on Individual
Residential Mobility Behaviour . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
Andreas Koch
Modelling the Energy Transition: Towards an Application
of Agent Based Modelling to Integrated Assessment Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
Oscar Kraan, Gert Jan Kramer, Telli van der Lei, and Gjalt Huppes
A Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Model of the Diffusion
of Green Electricity: Model Setup and Retrodictive Validation . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
Friedrich Krebs and Andreas Ernst
A Network Analytic Approach to Investigating a Land-Use
Change Agent-Based Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
Ju-Sung Lee and Tatiana Filatova
Network Influence Effects in Agent-Based Modelling of Civil Violence . . . 241
Carlos Lemos, Helder Coelho, and Rui J. Lopes
Modeling the Evolution of Ideological Landscapes Through
Opinion Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255
Jan Lorenz
Changing Habits Using Contextualized Decision Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267
Rijk Mercuur, Frank Dignum, and Yoshihisa Kashima
Contents xvii
SocialSIM: Real-Life Social Simulation as a Field for Students’

Research Projects and Context of Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273
Larissa Mogk
Simulating Thomas Kuhn’s Scientific Revolutions: The
Example of the Paradigm Change from Systems Dynamics
to Agent Based Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277
Georg P. Mueller
Urban Dynamics Simulation Considering the Allocation of a
Facility for Stopped Off . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293
Hideyuki Nagai and Setsuya Kurahashi
Using ABM to Clarify and Refine Social Practice Theory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307
Kavin Narasimhan, Thomas Roberts, Maria Xenitidou,
and Nigel Gilbert
Transition to Low-Carbon Economy: Simulating Nonlinearities
in the Electricity Market, Navarre Region, Spain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321
Leila Niamir and Tatiana Filatova
Statistical Verification of the Multiagent Model of Volatility
Clustering on Financial Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
Tomasz Olczak, Bogumił Kamiński, and Przemysław Szufel
Social Amplification of Risk Framework:
An Agent-Based Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335
Bhakti Stephan Onggo
How Precise Are the Specifications of a Psychological Theory?
Comparing Implementations of Lindenberg and Steg’s
Goal-Framing Theory of Everyday Pro-environmental Behaviour . . . . . . . . 341
Gary Polhill and Nick Gotts
Lessons Learned Replicating the Analysis of Outputs
from a Social Simulation of Biodiversity Incentivisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355
Gary Polhill, Lorenzo Milazzo, Terry Dawson,
Alessandro Gimona, and Dawn Parker
The Pursuit of Happiness: A Model of Group Formation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367
Andrea Scalco, Andrea Ceschi, and Riccardo Sartori
The Social Learning Community-Modeling Social Change
from the Bottom-Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373
Geeske Scholz
Understanding and Predicting Compliance with Safety
Regulations at an Airline Ground Service Organization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379
Alexei Sharpanskykh and Rob Haest
xviii Contents
Opinions on Contested Infrastructures Over Time:

A Longitudinal, Empirically Based Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393
Annalisa Stefanelli
Road Repair Sequencing for Disaster
Victim Evacuation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401
Kumiko Tadano, Yoshiharu Maeno, and Laura Carnevali
Using Empirical Data for Designing, Calibrating
and Validating Simulation Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 413
Klaus G. Troitzsch
A Methodology for Simulating Synthetic Populations for
the Analysis of Socio-technical Infrastructures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429
Koen H. van Dam, Gonzalo Bustos-Turu, and Nilay Shah
Modeling the Individual Process
of Career Choice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 435
Mandy A.E. van der Gaag and Pieter van den Berg
Modelling the Role of Social Media at Street Protests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 445
Annie Waldherr and Nanda Wijermans
AgentBase: Agent Based Modeling in the Browser. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 451
Wybo Wiersma
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 457
From Field Data to Attitude Formation
Kei-Léo Brousmiche, Jean-Daniel Kant, Nicolas Sabouret, and

François Prenot-Guinard
Abstract This paper presents a multi-agent model for simulating attitude formation
and change based on perception and communication in the context of stabilization
operations. The originality of our model comes from (1) attitude computation that
evaluates information as part of a history relative to the individual and (2) a notion
of co-responsibility for attitude attribution. We present a military scenario of French
operations in Afghanistan along with polls results about the opinion of citizens
toward present Forces. Based on these field data, we calibrate the model and show
the resulting attitude dynamics. We study the sensibility of the model to the co-
responsibility factor.
Keywords Social simulation • Attitude formation and dynamics • Agent-based

modeling • Cognitive modeling • Calibration using field data
1 Introduction
The new conflicts that arouse during the two last decades have brought a deep shift
in military strategies [19]: most of the stabilization operations conducted by western
Forces involve opponents who blend themselves into the “human environment”
to turn the population in their favor. In order to counter them, one should not
K.-L. Brousmiche ()

LIP6 - CNRS UMR 7606, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
Airbus Defense & Space, 1 bd Jean-Moulin, Elancourt, France
e-mail: kei-leo.brousmiche@lip6.fr
J.-D. Kant
LIP6 - CNRS UMR 7606, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
e-mail: jean-daniel.kant@lip6.fr
N. Sabouret
LIMSI-CNRS, UPR 3251, Université Paris-Sud, Orsay, France
e-mail: nicolas.sabouret@limsi.fr
F. Prenot-Guinard
Airbus Defense & Space, 1 bd Jean-Moulin, Elancourt, France
e-mail: francois.prenot-guinard@airbus.com
© Springer International Publishing AG 2017 1

W. Jager et al. (eds.), Advances in Social Simulation 2015, Advances in Intelligent
Systems and Computing 528, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-47253-9_1
2 K.-L. Brousmiche et al.
only rely on tactical actions against them but also on non-kinetic actions such as
reconstruction or specific communication actions that aim at altering the “hearts
and minds” of the population. In this context, understanding the impact of actions
performed by the intervention Force on the population’s attitude is a major issue.
The concept of attitude derives from social psychology and could be defined as
“a mental and neural state of readiness organized through experience” [2]. Multi-
agent simulation of attitude dynamics seems a promising approach to study such
complex social phenomenon since it is funded on individuals micro modeling and
their interactions to analyze emergent macro trends [7]. While multiple agent-based
models have been proposed to study attitude and opinion (i.e., expressed attitude)
dynamics [3, 5, 20], the major difficulty relies in validation: can a given model
correctly reflect the attitude dynamics of a population in a conflict zone? Opinion
polls can provide target values. However, collecting field data to feed the simulation
model and assessing the validity of its outcome (based on the expected values)
can prove to be very difficult.
As part of our research, we have been given access to polls results about
opinions of the population toward the different present Forces (foreign Force and
Taliban) in an area of Afghanistan where French Forces conducted stabilization
operations.1 Along with these survey results, we have reconstituted the military
actions sequences of each Force through a series of interviews with officers who
were in charge of the situation. Our analysis of these data has brought light to
attitude dynamics that go against classical approaches in social simulation. First,
most models compute the attitude as the aggregation of the impact of each feature,
seen as independent criteria or events [5, 20]. However, people do not evaluate each
action (such as food provision, military patrol, and bombing attack) independently
but toward what similar actions represents in general in terms of direct and indirect
consequences for the population. It corresponds to Kahneman’s memory-based,
retrospective approach of evaluation [13]. Second, we noticed that populations
attitude toward the UN army could decrease when it fails to accomplish its securing
mission. For instance, in case of a bombing attack, victims will not only blame
insurgents who are directly responsible but also the Security Force which have
“failed” to prevent such an event. It corresponds in this case to the concept of “role-
responsibility” in the sense of Hart [11]. In generally, people tend to attribute the
responsibility of an action to other people, groups, or situational factors in addition
to the direct responsible [12, 14].
In this paper, we propose a multi-agent simulation model based on field data
that will help to better comprehend attitude dynamics in conflict zones where the
population is confronted to antagonists Forces.
1
These opinion surveys have been ordered by the French Ministry of Defense.
From Field Data to Attitude Formation 3
2 Related Works
Several researches have already proposed computational models of attitudes, from

simple binary approaches [16] to more complex ones (e.g., [17]). However, as was
pointed out by Castellano et al. [4], most of these models’ focuses are limited to the
interactions between individuals: they do not consider the construction mechanism
of the attitude itself at a cognitive level. On this matter, Urbig and Malitz [20]
proposed to represent attitudes as the sum of the evaluations of the object’s features
that can be seen as beliefs on the object, so as to take into account the cognitive
aspect. While this model constitutes an interesting view on attitude formation, it has
two limits with respect to our objectives.
First, the attitudes’ values are not connected to the beliefs of each agent
constituting their personal history. Indeed, their attitude revision mechanism is
based on the bounded confidence model (e.g., [5]): when two individuals have
attitude values close to each other, agents converge their attitudes. However, it
could be possible to combine this with Fazio’s model of attitude [9]. This model
connects the attitude to its forming beliefs as a set of memory associations. Each of
these evaluations is weighted by an accessibility value determining the evaluation’s
degree of reminiscence. By essence, this model maintains a balance between the
cognitive representation of the object and its corresponding attitude.
Second, the attitude model of Urbig and Malitz does not embody an emotional
component, while social psychologists have defined the attitude as embodying
rational and affective components [9, 18]. This is the reason why Brousmiche et al.
[3] attempted to combine Fazio’s model with the Simplicity Theory proposed by
Dessalles [6] which embodies an affective response mechanism. However, their
model does not consider (1) the aggregation of beliefs into a personal history as
proposed by Fazio and (2) the notion of role responsibility impacting attitudes
toward other actors than perpetrators of an action.
In this paper, we will take the model presented in [3] as a starting point and
extend it in order to take into account these two concepts by adding a mechanism of
co-responsibility and modifying the aggregation method of the attitude computation.
3 Field Data
3.1 Scenario
In the course of the NATO intervention in Afghanistan to stabilize the country, the
French Forces were tasked to maintain security in the regions of Kapisa and Surobi
between 2008 and 2012. It is in this context that members of CIAE2 were sent in the
2
Joint Command for Human Terrain Actions: in charge of civil-military actions (e.g., recon-
struction) and community outreach actions (i.e., attitude influence operations) that complement
conventional security operations.
Fig. 1 Scenario of Blue and Red Forces actions. The time points P1; : : : ;P4 correspond to the
dates of the opinion polls presented in the next section
area from October 2010 to September 2012. Through a set of six interviews with
all the successive officers in charge (three colonels and three commanders) from the
Joint Command for Human Terrain Actions, we managed to rebuild the sequence of
the events that took place during their tenures, originating both from the NATO and
from the Taliban insurgents. This sequence takes the shape of a scenario (see Fig. 1).
Each action is characterized by a reach, a frequency, and a payoff: how many
people were directly affected by the action, how many times per week if it is
frequent, and how each individual is impacted. These values were defined based on
subjective assessments of this domain’s subject matter experts (including members
of CIAE). For instance, we defined the action “patrol” as being triggered by the Blue
Force, affecting the population with a positive impact of 30 and a reach of 20 people,
repeated three times per week in average. Similarly, “IED” (Improvised Explosive
Devices) are done by Red Forces and affect one individual with a payoff of 100.
The number of victims of each attack was defined according to open source records
(e.g. [8]).
We can observe that both Forces have a constant background activity toward
the population composed of non-kinetic actions. However, the Red Force activity
is heavily decreased during winter which corresponds to the second period on the
scenario. One reason is that local Taliban leaders leave the region to avoid the arid
climate. Also, the surveillance systems, including drones, are more effective in the
absence of foliage, making it more difficult for insurgents to place discretely the
IEDs. On the Blue Force side, the activity decreases constantly due to the political
decision taken after the big human losses on the first period. Indeed, the French
government began to adopt a “retreat” strategy after the suicide attack of Joybar
(July 13th 2011) which caused considerable human casualties among the Blue
Forces.
Table 1 % of the population favorable with two questions at different dates

Polls dates
Questions 2/11(P1) 9/11(P2) 2/12(P3) 9/12(P4)
“The Blue Force contribute to 40 32 24 19
security” (Q1)
“The Red Force is the principal 27 60 27 37
vector of insecurity” (Q2)
3.2 Opinion Polls
In order to follow the progress of population’s sentiments and to link them to foreign
Forces activities, the French Ministry of Defense financed opinion polls in Afghan
regions where the French forces were operating. Those surveys were conducted by
Afghan contractors between February 2011 and September 2012 with an interval of
approximately 6 months issuing into four measure points P1, P2, P3, and P4 of the
opinion of the population of Kapisa toward the Blue Force and the Red Force on the
period corresponding to our scenario (see Table 1 below).
Opinions toward Red Force in the context of security decrease in summer
periods. This could be explained by their high activity level as exposed in the
previous section. As for the Blue Force, the global opinion value keeps decreasing
along with their decreasing activities. In overall, the opinion dynamics showed by
these polls results are consistent with the scenario previously established.
4 Model
4.1 General Approach
Our model is based on the following principle: a simulation corresponds to the

execution of actions (e.g. food distribution, construction of a bridge, bombing attack,
etc.) by actors (e.g. UN Force, terrorists, or others) on a population. Individuals
communicate about these actions with the others and form an attitude toward actors.
In our model, we consider a set of actors A and a set of individuals Ind. Actors
represent Forces that act in the simulation and for which we want to analyze
the attitudes evolution. Each of them corresponds to a computational automaton
executing its actions list specified by the above scenario. Each individual i 2 Ind
is represented by a computational agent and is characterized by its belief base that
records facts he is aware of and his connections to other individuals. For each i 2 Ind
and actor 2 A, we denote att.i; actor/ 2 R the attitude of the individual i toward
the actor actor.
Beliefs about actions will be the core element in our model: attitudes and
communications will be based on these beliefs. We note a.i/ the belief of individual
i about an action a.
Each a.i/ is a tuple: hname.a/; actor.a/; coResp.a/; bnf .a/; payoff .a/; date.a/i
with:
– name the unique name of the action (e.g., “patrol,” “suicide attack”)
– actor 2 A the actor who performed the action (Blue or Red Force)
– coResp 2 A the co-responsible actor of the action, if any (e.g., Blue Force will
be co-responsible of “suicide attacks” performed by Red Force)
– bnf 2 Ind [ A the beneficiary of the action, i.e., the individual or actor who
undergoes the action
– payoff 2 R the impact value of the action, negative when the action is harmful
(e.g., attack) and positive when it is beneficial (e.g., food provision)
– date 2 N the occurrence date of the action.
Attitudes are computed as the aggregation of evaluation of similar actions seized
by the individual in his past. Two actions are similar if and only if they have the
same name and actor. For instance, two distinct patrols done by the Blue Force in
the same area are considered as similar. We call general action the meta action that
includes similar actions. We denote ga.i; a/ the general action corresponding to the
action a according to the individual i and ga.i/ the list of all general actions that i
knows.
Actions can be perceived via direct perception (the agent is beneficiary of the
action), actors communication toward the population (the agent receives a message
from the actors), or intra-population communication (the agent receives a message
from another individual).
4.2 Attitude Computation
When an agent receives a new information about an action a, it adds it to its belief
base (if the action is not already present) and, possibly, communicates about it.
Moreover, the agent revises its attitude toward the actor of the action. Our model of
attitude construction is based on the model proposed by Fazio [9] (see Sect. 2). In
short, Fazio proposes to compute the attitude as the average of beliefs’ evaluations
(i.e. how much this fact is beneficial) weighted by their accessibilities (i.e. how
accessible is the information in the subject’s mind).
First we compute the interest of an information to estimate its accessibility and
its narrative interest (whether or not to communicate the action to other agents).
Second, we evaluate the action based on its payoff. Third, we compute the impact
of co-responsibility, if required. Finally, we aggregate these evaluations, weighted
by their accessibilities, to compute the attitude.
Interest of an Action
In order to determine what to base their attitude on and what to communicate to

other individuals, agents estimate a model of interest of the actions in their belief
base. Following [3], our model of interest is based on the Simplicity Theory of
Dessalles [6] which proposes to define the narrative interest NI of an information
according to the emotion E and the surprise level S it causes to the individual using
the following formula: NI.a/ D 2˛E.a/C.1˛/S.a/ where E corresponds to the personal
emotional response intensity of the individual when faced to an information and the
surprise level S translates the sentiment of unexpectedness felt by the individual.
The parameter ˛ 2 Œ0; 1 balances these two parts.
The emotional intensity E corresponds to the emotional amplitude experienced
by the individual when exposed to an event and follows a logarithmic law in
conformity with Weber–Fechner’s law of stimuli. In our case, stimuli correspond
to actions’ payoff. A parameter of personal sensibility 2 Œ0; 1 modulates the
response intensity.
The surprise S experienced by an individual when exposed to an event derives
from a level of raw unexpectedness (e.g. “It is surprising that a Taliban saves a
citizen”). This level is reduced by a personal reference of unexpectedness based on
a personal experience (e.g. “But I have once been saved by a Taliban before”).
While NI.a/ corresponds to the narrative interest used as a communication
heuristic, we also compute the information’s interest corresponding to the acces-
sibility of the information:
interest.a/ D log.NI.a// D ˛E.a/ C .1 ˛/S.a/
Action Evaluation
Fishbein and Ajzen [1] advance that the evaluation of an action is weighted by the
attitude toward its beneficiary. For instance, a beneficial action for my enemy is
harmful to me. Therefore, we define the evaluation of an action belief as:
evaluation.a/ D payoff .a/ att.i; bnf .a//
Co-responsibility
In our case study, the Blue Force endorses the role of security guardian, thus
they are co-responsible of all actions compromising the security of the population
including Talibans’ attacks from population’s perspective. Thus, we introduce a co-
responsibility mechanism that enables individual to attribute a fraction 2 Œ0; 1,
parameter of the simulation, of an action payoff to the co-responsible. This
mechanism occurs when an individual faces an action a in which (1) there is a
co-responsible actor, (2) its impact is negative (i.e. there is no co-responsibility
for beneficial actions), and (3) its evaluation is negative. In that specific case,
the individual adds a belief a0 with actor.a/ D coResp.a/ and evaluation.a0 / D
evaluation.a/.
Aggregation
Let gaList.i; actor/ be the list containing all the general actions performed by the
actor in the belief base of agent i. The attitude att.i; actor/ of the individual i toward
the actor is given at each time of the simulation by:
0 1
X X
@ evaluation.a/ interest.a; i/ A
att.i; actor/ D
jga.i; a/j
ga.i/2gaList.i;actor/ a.i/2ga.i;a/
5 Experiments
In this section, we present the experimental results of our model. We aim to

reproduce the results of opinion polls collected on the field using the established
scenario of events that took place in Kapisa between September 2011 and September
2013. Since the polls did not asked directly the opinion toward the Red Force but
“whether they represent a threat” (see Sect. 3.2), we decided to take the opposite of
these results as the target attitude values.
5.1 Simulation Settings and Initialization
We input the action sequence presented in the scenario of both Red and Blue Forces
into the simulation scheduler; one tick corresponds to 1 day: the simulation covers
the period between the first and last opinion polls in 554 ticks. The two agents
corresponding to each Force will then operate their actions according to the scenario.
The artificial population representing the inhabitants of Kapisa is composed of 150
agents connected by an interaction network based on a small-world topology [15]
with a degree of 4 (i.e., each individual has four neighbors in average).
Before running the actual simulation, we initialize the population with a personal
history for each individual and an attitude corresponding to the value given by P1.
Indeed, one of our model originality resides in the fact that the attitude depends on
the agent’s cognitive state characterized by its beliefs and accessibility values. Thus,
we must give individuals an initialization belief with a certain reach and payoff for
both attitudes toward Red and Blue Forces. These beliefs represent the interactions
with Forces preceding to the simulation span. Another subtle point in our model
is that individuals are surprised when they witness a totally new action, resulting
in an overestimation of the action’s impact. In order to habituate them to certain
regular actions (such as patrols, preaches, and radio broadcasts) we need to run an
initialization scenario before the actual one in which the population is confronted to
these actions, until we reach a stable point (approximately 200 ticks).
5.2 Calibration Method
Once the simulation is properly initialized, we calibrate the model parameters using
each opinion polls results as objectives. We have four points to calibrate per Force,
thus totaling eight points of calibration. The model parameters are shared among all
individuals of the population:
– ˛ the weight of emotional sensibility toward the surprise factor
– the level of sensibility to a stimuli (i.e., payoff)
– the co-responsibility factor of Blue Forces for harmful Red actions.
We also have to determine the parameters of initialization actions to attain the first
point P1: one positive and one negative action per Force. To do so, we fix their payoff
values (negative for the harmful action and positive for the other) and calibrate their
reaches.
We define our fitness function as the sum of differences’ squares between each
point of the opinion poll results and its corresponding percentage of favorable indi-
viduals in the simulation. We choose to minimize this fitness using the evolutionary
algorithm CMA-ES that is one of the most powerful calibration method to solve
this kind of problem [10]. Once the fitness stops progressing over 500 iterations, we
interrupt the calibration process and save the parameters. Each calibration iteration
is based on the average output on over 20 simulations replica since the model is
stochastic.
5.3 Calibration Results
Figure 2 shows the results of our model once its parameters have been calibrated.
Plain curves represent the objectives to reach that are based on the collected opinion
polls results (see Sect. 3.2); dashed curves correspond to the simulation results, with
˛ D 0:70, D 0:08, and D 0:15 (as obtained by the calibration).
We can observe that the attitude dynamics tendencies are well reproduced. The
average difference between results and objective points is 13:25 % with a maximum
of 19 % for the last point. This gap between survey and simulation results could be
explained by several factors in addition to the model itself: field data are generally
inaccurate and capture only a limited part of reality.
Fig. 2 Simulation results compared to opinion polls
First, the established scenario is based on subjective assessments of some Blue

Force officers and do not capture all the military events that took place on the terrain.
Adding to this, the parameters of action’s models (i.e. payoffs, frequency, and reach)
have been assessed based on qualitative appraisal of subject matter experts since
there is no scientific method to assess them.
Second, the sampling of the opinion survey could not be maintained through
the survey process, due to the dynamics of the conflict: certain villages could not
be accessed constantly over time due to their dangerousness. Moreover, as it was
pointed earlier, the questionnaire did not directly ask the opinion toward Red Force
which might increase the gap between our model outputs and the polls results.
Finally, our field data is limited to the context of military events. Even if our
study concerns attitudes toward Forces in the military/security context, other events
might also have influenced these attitudes such as economic or daily activities.
In view of these limitations, the reproduction of the general tendencies of attitude
dynamics between each polls seems encouraging. Besides, these results have been
obtained by calibrating only three model parameters.
5.4 Attitude Dynamics
Agent-based simulation enables not only to reproduce aggregated data but also to
analyze micro behaviors. Figures 3 and 4 below show the dynamics of population’s
attitudes means values between two polls along with their corresponding scenario.
The decreasing general tendency of the attitude toward the Red Force between
P1 and P2 in Fig. 3 is due to the constant pressure activity that affects negatively
the population. We can observe repercussions of each occurrence of action on the
attitude dynamics. For instance, in Fig. 3 we can clearly see attitude decreasing
toward Red Force at each IED (Improvised Explosive Device, gray blocs in the
figure) and also that the first occurrence has the greatest impact since the population
is surprised. Besides, we can notice that the impact of a suicide attack is much
greater than other actions (mid-July 2011 and June 2013).
In Fig. 4, we can see that attitudes toward the Blue Force are also impacted by
each of its actions. Moreover, we can notice that the curve greatly decreases when
the suicide attack perpetuated by Reds occurs. This phenomenon is enabled by the
mechanism of co-responsibility (see Sect. 4.2), the Blue Force is also responsible of
these attacks, in a moderate way. Similarly, the attitude toward Blue Force decreases
constantly since the background communication actions and patrols are not enough
to counter their co-responsibility toward the pressure activity for Reds.
Fig. 3 Attitude mean toward Red Force between P1 and P2

Fig. 4 Attitude mean toward Blue Force between P3 and P4
5.5 Role of Co-responsibility
To show the impact of the co-responsibility mechanism, we have performed a

new simulation with D 0 (i.e. no co-responsibility). Since the initial values of
attitudes toward Blue Force depend on during the initialization scenario, we had to
re-calibrate the model parameters. Figure 5 shows the resulting attitude dynamics.
As it was predictable, the attitude toward the Blue Force constantly increases as
their only potentially negative actions (kinetic actions against the Red Force) are
easily countered by communication toward the population or reconstruction actions.
This is what was expected by the stakeholders when they decided to engage in
Afghanistan.
The tendency of attitude toward Red Force remains the same since the co-
responsibility only affects the Blue. We can notice that the simulated attitudes
toward Reds is closer to opinion polls than in the first calibration. This is due to
the fact that the red scenario is more simple (less action diversity).
6 Conclusion
We have collected information on the opinion dynamics and the events during
the involvement of French army in Afghan war. These information were analyzed
and processed with the support of subject matter experts. Based on these field
Fig. 5 Impact of co-responsibility
observations, we proposed a simulation model of attitude dynamics. This model

embodies both cognitive and affective components in the formation of attitude and
the diffusion of beliefs. While it was designed in the context of military operations,
it can be applied to civilian use: the actors can represent any kind of active social
object such as political parties, institutions, companies, or brands.
We also introduced a new concept of co-responsibility that reflects attitude
behavior perceptible in conflict terrain. These components were aggregated through
a new method that better understands the concept of attitude proposed by Fazio. We
conducted a model calibration based on the collected data that showed encouraging
results.
In future works, we intend to conduct deeper analysis of the field data to adapt
the model and implement the simulation of different social groups that are present
in this area. Moreover, we would like to implement a memory mechanism to let the
agents “forget” some beliefs over time. This would be enabled, for instance, using
the Peak-End mechanism of Kahneman [13]. Furthermore, we would like to add a
behavioral component to enable population agents to express their attitudes through
action’s selection.
References
1. Ajzen, I., Fishbein, M.: The influence of attitudes on behavior. In: Albarrac, D., Johnson, B.T.,
Zanna, M.P. (eds.) The Handbook of Attitudes, pp. 173–221. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates
Publishers, Mahwah, NJ (2005)
2. Allport, G.W.: Attitudes. In: Murchison, C. (ed.) Handbook of Social Psychology, pp. 798–844.
Clark University Press, Worcester, MA (1935)
Another random document with
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Much has to be accepted which it may not be always pleasant to
accept; but she showed a wonderful power, on the one hand, of
observing with the most absolute strictness, the limits of her
action which the Constitution draws, and, on the other hand, of
maintaining a steady and persistent influence on the action of
her Ministers in the course of legislation and government
which no one could mistake. She was able to accept some things
of which, perhaps, she did not entirely approve, but which she
thought it her duty in her position to accept.
"She always maintained and practised a rigorous supervision

over public affairs, giving to her Ministers her frank advice
and warning them of danger if she saw there was danger ahead;
and she certainly impressed many of us with a profound sense
of the penetration, almost intuition, with which she saw the
perils with which we might be threatened in any course it was
thought expedient to adopt. She left upon my mind, she left
upon our minds, the conviction that it was always a dangerous
matter to press on her any course of the expediency of which
she was not thoroughly convinced; and I may say with
confidence that no Minister in her long reign ever disregarded
her advice, or pressed her to disregard it, without afterwards
feeling that he had incurred a dangerous responsibility. She
had an extraordinary knowledge of what her people would think.
I have said for years that I always thought that when I knew
what the Queen thought I knew certainly what view her subjects
would take, and especially the middle classes of her subjects.
Such was the extraordinary penetration of her mind. Yet she
never adhered to her own conceptions obstinately. On the
contrary, she was full of concession and consideration; and
she spared no effort—I might almost say she shrank from no
sacrifice—to make the task of conducting this difficult
Government more easy to her advisers than it would otherwise
have been. My lords, I feel sure that the testimony I have
borne will be abundantly sustained by all those who have been
called to serve her.
"We owe her gratitude in every direction—for her influence in
elevating the people, for her power with foreign Courts and
Sovereigns to remove difficulties and misapprehension which
sometimes might have been dangerous; but, above all things, I
think, we owe her gratitude for this, that by a happy
dispensation her reign has coincided with that great change
which has come over the political structure of this country
and the political instincts of its people. She has bridged
over that great interval which separates old England from new
England. Other nations may have had to pass through similar
trials, but have seldom passed through them so peaceably, so
easily, and with so much prosperity and success as we have. I
think that future historians will look to the Queen's reign as
the boundary which separates the two states of England—England
which has changed so much—and recognize that we have undergone
the change with constant increase of public prosperity,
without any friction to endanger the peace or stability of our
civil life, and at the same time with a constant expansion of
an Empire which every year grows more and more powerful. We
owe all these blessings to the tact, the wisdom, the
passionate patriotism, and the incomparable judgment of the
Sovereign whom we deplore." [sic]
In the House of Commons, on the same day, Mr. Balfour, the

leader of the House, spoke with fine feeling, partly as
follows: "The reign of Queen Victoria is no mere chronological
landmark. It is no mere convenient division of time, useful
for the historian or the chronicler. No, Sir, we feel as we do
feel for our great loss because we intimately associate the
personality of Queen Victoria with the great succession of
events which have filled her reign and with the development of
the Empire over which she ruled. And, associating her
personality with those events, surely we do well. In my
judgment, the importance of the Crown in our Constitution is
not a diminishing, but an increasing, factor. It is
increasing, and must increase, with the growth and development
of those free, self-governing communities, those new
commonwealths beyond the sea, who are bound to us by the
person of the Sovereign, who is the living symbol of the unity
of the Empire. But, Sir, it is not given, it cannot, in
ordinary course, be given, to a Constitutional Monarch to
signalize his reign by any great isolated action. The effect
of a Constitutional Sovereign, great as it is, is produced by
the slow, constant, and cumulative results of a great ideal
and a great example; and of that great ideal and that great
example Queen Victoria surely was the first of all
Constitutional Monarchs whom the world has yet seen. Where
shall we find that ideal so lofty in itself, so constantly and
consistently maintained, through two generations, through more
than two generations, of her subjects, through many
generations of her public men and members of this House?
Descendants of Queen Victoria.
"Sir, it would be almost impertinent for me were I to attempt

to express to the House in words the effect which the
character of our late Sovereign produced upon all who were in
any degree, however remote, brought in contact with her. The
simple dignity, befitting a Monarch of this realm, in that she
could never fail, because it arose from her inherent sense of
the fitness of things. It was no trapping put on for office,
and therefore it was that this dignity, this Queenly dignity,
only served to throw into stronger relief and into a brighter
light those admirable virtues of the wife, the mother, and the
woman with which she was so richly endowed. Those kindly
graces, those admirable qualities, have endeared her to every
class in the community, and are known to all. Perhaps less
known was the life of continuous labour which her position as
Queen threw upon her. Short as was the interval between the
last trembling signature affixed to a public document and
final rest, it was yet long enough to clog and hamper the
wheels of administration; and I remember when I saw a vast
mass of untouched documents which awaited the hand of the
Sovereign of this country to deal with it was brought vividly
before my mind how admirable was the unostentatious patience
with which for 63 years, through sorrow, through suffering, in
moments of weariness, in moments of despondency, it may be,
she carried on without intermission her share in the
government of this great Empire.
{216}
For her there was no holiday, to her there was no intermission
of toil. Domestic sorrow, domestic sickness, made no difference
in her labours, and they were continued from the hour at which
she became our Sovereign to within a very few days of her
death. It is easy to chronicle the growth of Empire, the
progress of trade, the triumphs of war, all the events that
make history interesting or exciting; but who is there that
will dare to weigh in the balance the effect which such an
example continued over 63 years has produced on the highest
life of the people? It is a great life, and had a fortunate,
and, let me say, in my judgment, a happy ending."
The especial and peculiar importance which Queen Victoria had

acquired in the political world, and the weight in its
councils which England owed to her personality, were
impressively suggested by Lord Rosebery, in a speech which he
made at a special court of the Governors of the Corporation of
the Royal Scottish Hospital, when he said: "We hear much in
these days of the life of the Queen and of what we owe her.
But I sometimes wonder if we all realize how much we do owe
her, for you would have had to know much about the Queen to
realize adequately the debt which the nation was under to her.
Probably every subject in Great Britain realizes that he has
lost his greatest and his best friend. But they do not
understand of what enormous weight in the councils of the
world we are deprived by the death of our late Sovereign. She
gave to the councils of Great Britain an advantage which no
talents, no brilliancy, no genius, could supply. Think of what
her reign was! She had reigned for 63 years. For 63 years she
had known all that was to be known about the political
condition of her country. For 63 years she had been in
communication with every important Minister and with every
important public man. She had received reports, daily reports
almost, from her successive Ministers, or their deputies in
the House of Commons. She had, therefore, a fund of knowledge
which no constitutional historian has ever had at his command.
That by the stroke of death is lost to us to-day. All that was of
incalculable advantage to our Monarchy. But have you realized
what the personal weight of the late Queen was in the councils
of the world? She was by far the senior of all the European
Sovereigns. She was, it is no disparagement to other Kings to
say, the chief of all the European Sovereigns. The German
Emperor was her grandson by birth. The Emperor of Russia was
her grandson by marriage. She had reigned 11 years when the
Emperor of Austria came to his throne. She had seen two
dynasties pass from the throne of France. She had seen, as
Queen, three Monarchs of Spain, and four Sovereigns of the
House of Savoy in Italy. In all those kingdoms which have been
carved out of the Turkish Empire she had seen the foundation
of their reigning dynasties. Can we not realize, then, what a
force the personal influence of such a Sovereign was in the
troubled councils of Europe? And when, as we know, that
influence was always given for peace, for freedom, and for
good government, we feel that not merely ourselves but all the
world has lost one of its best friends."
A statement in the "London Times" of January 26 shows the

descendants of Queen Victoria to be in number as follows: "The
Queen has had
9 children of whom 6 survive

40 grandchildren of whom 31 survive
37 great-grandchildren of whom 37 survive
[A total of] 86 [of whom] 74 [survive].
"Of the great-grandchildren 22 are boys and 15 are girls; 6

are grandchildren of the Prince of Wales; 18 are grandchildren
of the Empress Frederick; 11 are grandchildren of the late
Princess Alice; 6 are grandchildren of the late Duke of
Saxe-Coburg and Gotha. This would appear to make a total of
41, but three of them are grandchildren of both the Empress
Frederick and Princess Alice, while one is grandchild of both
the Princess Alice and the Duke of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha.
"It will be seen that in the course of nature the future

rulers of Great Britain, Germany, Russia, Greece, and Rumania
will be descendants of her Majesty."
ENGLAND: A. D. 1901 (January-February).

Ceremonies of the accession of King Edward VII.
His speech in Council and his messages to the people
of the British Empire.
On Wednesday, the 23d of January—the day following the death

of the Queen—her eldest son, Albert Edward, long known as
Prince of Wales, went from Osborne to London to take up the
sceptre of sovereignty which his mother had laid down. The
proceedings in Council which took place thereupon were
officially reported in the "London Gazette" as follows:
"At the Court at Saint James's, the 23rd day of January, 1901.
Present,
"The King's Most Excellent Majesty in Council. His Majesty

being this day present in Council was pleased to make the
following Declaration:
"'Your Royal Highnesses, My Lords, and Gentlemen, This is the

most painful occasion on which I shall ever be called upon to
address you. My first and melancholy duty is to announce to
you the death of My beloved Mother the Queen, and I know how
deeply you, the whole Nation, and I think I may say the whole
world, sympathize with Me in the irreparable loss we have all
sustained. I need hardly say that My constant endeavour will
be always to walk in Her footsteps. In undertaking the heavy
load which now devolves upon life, I am fully determined to be
a Constitutional Sovereign in the strictest sense of the word,
and as long as there is breath in My body to work for the good
and amelioration of My people.
"'I have resolved to be known by the name of Edward, which has

been borne by six of My ancestors. In doing so I do not
undervalue the name of Albert, which I inherit from My ever to
be lamented, great and wise Father, who by universal consent is I
think deservedly known by the name of Albert the Good, and I
desire that his name should stand alone.
"'In conclusion, I trust to Parliament and the Nation to
support Me in the arduous duties which now devolve upon Me by
inheritance, and to which I am determined to devote My whole
strength during the remainder of My life.'
"Whereupon the Lords of the Council made it their humble

request to His Majesty that His Majesty's Most Gracious
Declaration to their Lordships' might be made public, which
His Majesty was pleased to Order accordingly."
{217}
The King then "caused all the Lords and others of the late
Queen's Privy Council, who were then present, to be sworn of
His Majesty's Privy Council." Orders had been previously given
for proclaiming "His present Majesty," in the following form:
"Whereas it has pleased Almighty God to call to His Mercy Our
late Sovereign Lady Queen Victoria, of Blessed and Glorious
Memory, by whose Decease the Imperial Crown of the United
Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland is solely and rightfully
come to the High and Mighty Prince Albert Edward: We,
therefore, the Lords Spiritual and Temporal of this Realm,
being here assisted with these of Her late Majesty's Privy
Council, with Numbers of other Principal Gentlemen of Quality,
with the Lord Mayor, Aldermen, and Citizens of London, do now
hereby, with one Voice and Consent of Tongue and Heart,
publish and proclaim, That the High and Mighty Prince, Albert
Edward, is now, by the Death of our late Sovereign of Happy
Memory, become our only lawful and rightful Liege Lord Edward
the Seventh, by the Grace of God, King of the United Kingdom
of Great Britain and Ireland, Defender of the Faith, Emperor
of India: To whom we do acknowledge all Faith and constant
Obedience, with all hearty and humble Affection; beseeching
God, by whom Kings and Queens do reign, to bless the Royal
Prince Edward the Seventh, with long and happy Years to reign
over Us."
The proclamation was made in London, with antique and
picturesque ceremony on the succeeding day, January 24, and
the following official report of it, from "Earl Marshal's
Office," published in the "London Gazette":
"This day His Most Gracious Majesty King Edward VII. was, in
pursuance of an Order in Council of the 23rd instant,
proclaimed with the usual ceremonies. At 9 o'clock in the
forenoon, the Officers of Arms habited in their tabards, the
Serjeants-at-Arms, with their maces and collars; and
Deputy-Serjeant Trumpeter in his collar; the Trumpeters, Drum
Major, and Knight Marshalmen being assembled at St James's
Palace, the Proclamation was read in the Grand Court by
William H. Weldon, Esq., Norroy King of Arms, Deputy to Sir
Albert W. Woods, Garter Principal King of Arms, in the
presence of the Earl Marshal of England, the Lord Steward, the
Lord Chamberlain, the Master of the Horse, and many other Members
of Her late Majesty's Household, with Lords and others of the
Privy Council and several personages of distinction. Deputy
Garter read the Proclamation. Then the Officers of Arms having
entered Royal Carriages, a procession was formed in the
following order:
The High Bailiff of Westminster, in his carriage.

Horse Guards.
Trumpeters.
A Royal Carriage containing The four Serjeants-at-Arms,
bearing their maces.
A Royal Carriage containing Pursuivants.
Rouge Dragon: Everard Green.
Bluemantle: G. Ambrose Lee.
Rouge Croix: G. W. Marshall.
Heralds.
Windsor: W. A. Lindsay, Esq.
York: A. S. Scott-Gatty, Esq.
Somerset: H. Farnham Burke, Esq., in a Royal Carriage.
A Detachment of Horse Guards.
"The Procession, flanked by the Horse Guards, moved from St.
James's Palace to Temple Bar, and Rouge Dragon Pursuivant of
Arms, alighting from the carriage, advanced between two
trumpeters, preceded by two of the Horse Guards, to the
barrier, and after the trumpets had sounded thrice, demanded
in the usual form admission into the City to proclaim His
Royal Majesty King Edward VII.; and being admitted, and the
barrier again closed, Rouge Dragon was conducted by the City
Marshal and his Officers to the Lord Mayor, who was in
attendance in his State Carriage, when Rouge Dragon delivered
to his Lordship the Order in Council, which the Lord Mayor,
having read, returned, and directed the barrier to be opened;
and Rouge Dragon being reconducted to his place in the
Procession it then moved into the City; the High Bailiff of
Westminster filing off at Temple Bar.
"At the corner of Chancery-lane York Herald read the

Proclamation; then the Lord Mayor, Aldermen, Recorder,
Sheriffs, Chamberlain, Common Serjeant, Town Clerk, and City
Officers fell into the procession immediately after the
Officers of Arms, and the procession moved on to the Royal
Exchange, where it was lastly read by Somerset Herald, when
the guns in St. James's Park and at the Tower of London were
fired. A multitude of spectators filled the streets through
which the procession passed, the windows of which were
crowded; and the acclamations were loud and general."
As described more fully by the "London Times," the interesting

proceeding, according to ancient custom, at Temple Bar—the
site of the old city gate—was as follows: "Temple Bar has
passed away, but not so the privileges associated with it,
although they have ceased to have more than an historical,
ceremonial, and picturesque interest. In accordance,
therefore, with ancient custom, the Lord Mayor yesterday
proceeded in State to the site of Temple Bar to grant entrance
to the King's Officer of Arms, who was about to proclaim his
Majesty King within the City. The gates of Temple Bar were
formerly closed for a short time before this ceremony, to be
opened, upon demand of the Officer of Arms, by the direction
of the Lord Mayor. As there are now no gates, a barrier was
made for the occasion by the holding of a red silken rope
across the street on either side of the Griffin which
commemorates the spot upon which Temple Bar formerly stood. A
strong force of burly constables was entrusted with this duty,
and the barrier thus created answered every practical purpose,
although there must have been lingering in the minds of some
of the venerable City Fathers some little regret that stern
necessity had occasioned the removal of the historic landmark
which stood there when Queen Victoria was proclaimed and
remained for many a long year afterwards, one of the most
interesting features of the ancient City.
{218}
"The Pursuivant (Rouge Dragon), the heralds, the officials of

Westminster, and the cavalcade halted a short distance to the
west of the barrier, and the Pursuivant then advanced between
two trumpeters, and the trumpets sounded thrice. Upon this the
City Marshal, on horseback, in scarlet tunic and cocked hat
with plumes, advanced to the barrier to meet the Pursuivant,
and in a loud voice, which could be heard by those at a
considerable distance, asked, 'Who comes there?' The
Pursuivant replied, 'The Officer of Arms, who demands entrance
into the City to proclaim his Royal Majesty, Edward the
Seventh.' Thereupon the barrier was opened so as to admit the
Pursuivant without escort, and immediately closed again. The
Pursuivant was then conducted by the City Marshal to the Lord
Mayor, who, being made acquainted with the object of the
Pursuivant's visit, directed the opening of the barrier, and
the Pursuivant returned to his cavalcade. There was a fanfare
of trumpets, and York Herald, Mr. A. S. Scott-Gatty, between
two trumpeters, approached the Lord Mayor, and presented to
his lordship the Order in Council requiring him to proclaim
his Majesty. The Lord Mayor replied:
'I am aware of the contents of this paper, having been

apprised yesterday of the ceremony appointed to take place,
and I have attended to perform my duty in accordance with
ancient usages and customs of the City of London.'
"The Lord Mayor then read aloud the Order in Council requiring
the herald to proclaim his Majesty within the jurisdiction of
the City, and returned it to the herald. … The trumpets
sounded and, the officials of Westminster having filed off,
the cavalcade advanced into the City as far as the corner of
Chancery-lane. There was another fanfare of trumpets, and the
herald then made the proclamation, reading it with admirable
clearness. When it was over the spectators, who had listened
with bared heads, cried 'God Save the King.' The trumpets were
again sounded, and a military band stationed to the west of
Temple Bar played the National Anthem. This was followed by
cheering, which lasted while the Lord Mayor and his retinue
resumed their places in the carriages which had brought them,
and the procession made its way to the Royal Exchange, the
route being down Fleet-street, up Ludgate-hill, through St.
Paul's Churchyard, and along Cheapside.
"Thus ended a ceremony which impressed all who saw it by its

solemnity, its dignity, and its significance. It brought home
vividly to the mind of every spectator the continuity which
exists amid all the changes of our national life, and the very
strangeness of the quaint heraldic garb worn by the heralds
and pursuivants, which at another time might have provoked a
smile, was felt to be an object-lesson for all, telling of
unbroken tradition reaching far back into the glorious history
of our country. On turning away from the site of Temple Bar
after the Proclamation had been made and the procession had
disappeared, one felt that the seriousness of the occasion had
impressed itself on every mind and that from every heart there
rose a common prayer—God Save the King!"
With somewhat less ceremony, on the same day, the same
proclamation was read in many parts of the United Kingdom.
On Friday, the 25th, both Houses of Parliament met (the

members having, one by one, taken the oath of allegiance to
the new sovereign on the two preceding days) to receive a
message from the King and to adopt an address in reply. The
royal message was as follows: "The King is fully assured that
the House of Commons will share in the deep sorrow which has
befallen his Majesty and the nation by the lamented death of
his Majesty's mother, the late Queen. Her devotion to the
welfare of her country and her people and her wise and
beneficent rule during the sixty-four years of her glorious
reign will ever be held in affectionate remembrance by her
loyal and devoted subjects throughout the dominions of the
British Empire."
The Marquis of Salisbury, in the House of Lords, and Mr.

Balfour, in the House of Commons, moved the following
Address, in speeches from which some passages have been quoted
above:
"That an humble Address be presented to his Majesty to assure

his Majesty that this House deeply sympathizes in the great
sorrow which his Majesty has sustained by the death of our
beloved Sovereign, the late Queen, whose unfailing devotion to
the duties of her high estate and to the welfare of her people
will ever cause her reign to be remembered with reverence and
affection; to submit to his Majesty our respectful
congratulations on his accession to the Throne; to assure his
Majesty of our loyal attachment to his person; and, further,
to assure him of our earnest conviction that his reign will be
distinguished under the blessing of Providence by an anxious
desire to maintain the laws of the kingdom and to promote the
happiness, the welfare, and the liberty of his subjects."
Speeches in support of the motion were made by the leaders of
the Opposition party, the Earl of Kimberley, in the House of
Lords, and Sir H. Campbell-Bannerman, in the House of Commons,
and by the Archbishop of Canterbury, also, in the former
chamber. The Address was then adopted, and Parliament was
adjourned until February 14. On the 4th of February, the new
King addressed the following messages to his subjects in the
British Empire at large, to the Colonies, and to the princes
and people of India:
"To My People. Now that the last Scene has closed in the noble
and ever glorious life of My beloved Mother, The Queen, I am
anxious to endeavour to convey to the whole Empire the extent
of the deep gratitude I feel for the heart-stirring and
affectionate tributes which are everywhere borne to Her
Memory. I wish also to express My warm recognition of those
universal expressions of what I know to be genuine and loyal
sympathy with Me and with the Royal Family in our overwhelming
sorrow. Such expressions have reached Me from all parts of My
vast Empire, while at home the sorrowful, reverent and sincere
enthusiasm manifested in the magnificent display by sea and
land has deeply touched Me. The consciousness of this generous
spirit of devotion and loyalty among the millions of My Subjects
and of the feeling that we are all sharing a common sorrow,
has inspired Me with courage and hope during the past most
trying and momentous days. Encouraged by the confidence of
that love and trust which the nation ever reposed in its late
and fondly mourned Sovereign, I shall earnestly strive to walk
in Her Footsteps, devoting Myself to the utmost of My powers
to maintaining and promoting the highest interests of My
People, and to the diligent and zealous fulfilment of the
great and sacred responsibilities which, through the Will of
God, I am now called to undertake.
EDWARD, R. I."
{219}
"To My People Beyond the Seas. The countless messages of loyal
sympathy which I have received from every part of My Dominions
over the Seas testify to the universal grief in which the
whole Empire now mourns the loss of My Beloved Mother. In the
welfare and prosperity of Her subjects throughout Greater
Britain the Queen ever evinced a heartfelt, interest. She saw
with thankfulness the steady progress which, under a wide
extension of Self-Government, they had made during Her Reign.
She warmly appreciated their unfailing loyalty to Her Throne
and Person, and was proud to think of those who had so nobly
fought and died for the Empire's cause in South Africa. I have
already declared that it will be My constant endeavour to
follow the great example which has been bequeathed to Me. In
these endeavours I shall have a confident trust in the
devotion and sympathy of the People and of their several
Representative Assemblies throughout My vast Colonial
Dominions. With such loyal support I will, with God's
blessing, solemnly work for the promotion of the common
welfare and security of the great Empire over which I have now
been called to reign,
EDWARD, R. I."
"To the Princes and People of India. Through the lamented

death of My beloved and dearly mourned Mother, I have
inherited the Throne, which has descended to Me through a long
and ancient lineage, I now desire to send My greeting to the
Ruling Chiefs of the Native States, and to the Inhabitants of
My Indian Dominions, to assure them of My sincere good will
and affection, and of My heartfelt wishes for their welfare.
My illustrious and lamented Predecessor was the first
Sovereign of this Country who took upon Herself the direct
Administration of the Affairs of India, and assumed the title
of Empress in token of Her closer association with the
Government of that vast Country. In all matters connected with
India, the Queen Empress displayed an unvarying deep personal
interest, and I am well aware of the feeling of loyalty and
affection evinced by the millions of its peoples towards Her
Throne and Person. This feeling was conspicuously shown during
the last year of Her long and glorious reign by the noble and
patriotic assistance offered by the Ruling Princes in the
South African War, and by the gallant services rendered by the
Native Army beyond the limits of their own Country. It was by
Her wish and with Her sanction that I visited India and made
Myself personally acquainted with the Ruling Chiefs, the
people, and the cities of that ancient and famous Empire. I
shall never forget the deep impressions which I then received,
and I shall endeavour to follow the great example of the first
Queen Empress to work for the general well being of my Indian
subjects of all ranks, and to merit, as She did, their
unfailing loyalty and affection.
EDWARD, R. ET I."
English feeling toward the new sovereign of the British

Empire, and the English estimate of his character and promise,
are probably expressed quite truly, for the general mass of
intelligent people, by the following remarks of "The Times:"
"In the whole range of English social and political life there
is no position more difficult to fill satisfactorily and
without reproach than that of Heir Apparent to the Throne, and
it may be justly said that the way in which that position has
been filled for more than the ordinary lifetime of a
generation has contributed to the remarkable increase of
devotion to the Throne and the dynasty which is one of the
most striking characteristics of Queen Victoria's reign. In
the relations of private life, from his childhood upwards,
'the Prince' has been universally and deservedly popular.
Cheerful and amiable, kind and generous, ever ready to
sympathize with the joys and sorrows of those around him, a
true friend, and a loyal antagonist, possessing considerable
mental culture and wide intellectual sympathies without any
tinge of pedantry, he has represented worthily the type of the
genuine English gentleman. Though a lover of sport, like most
of his countrymen, he differed from some of them in never
regarding it as the chief interest and occupation in life. If
he had been born in a humbler station he might have become a
successful business man or an eminent administrator, for he
possesses many of the qualities which command success in such
spheres of action. He is a quick and methodical worker,
arranges his time so as never to be hurried, is scrupulously
conscientious in fulfilling engagements, great and small, with
a punctuality which has become proverbial, never forgets to do
anything he has undertaken, and never allows unanswered
letters to accumulate. Few men have a larger private
correspondence, and his letters have the clearness, the
directness, the exquisite tactfulness, and the absolute
freedom from all affectation which characterize his
conversation. … "In public life he has displayed the same
qualities and done a great deal of very useful work. The
numerous and often irksome ceremonial duties of his position
have been invariably fulfilled most conscientiously and with
fitting dignity. Of the remainder of his time a considerable
part has been devoted to what might be called semi-official
activity. In works of benevolence and public utility and in
efforts to promote the interests of science and art he was
ever ready and anxious to lend a helping hand. He never
forgot, however, that in his public appearances he had not the
liberty of speech and action enjoyed by the ordinary
Englishman. Whilst taking the keenest interest in public
affairs of every kind, he carefully abstained from
overstepping in the slightest degree the limits imposed on him
by constitutional tradition and usage. No party clique or
Court camarilla ever sheltered itself behind him, and no
political intrigue was ever associated with his name.
Throughout her dominions Queen Victoria had no more loyal,
devoted subject than her own eldest son. If this strictly
correct attitude had been confined to his relations with the
Head of the State we might have supposed that it proceeded
from a feeling of deep filial affection and reverence, but, as
it was displayed equally in his relations with Parliament and
politicians, we must assume that it proceeded also from a high
and discriminating sense of duty. Of the Prime Ministers,
leaders of her Majesty's Opposition, and politicians of minor
degree with whom he came in contact, he may have found some
more sympathetic than others, but such personal preferences
were carefully concealed in his manner, which was invariably
courteous and considerate, and were not allowed to influence
his conduct."
{220}
In another article, the same journal again remarked that

"there is no position more difficult to fill than that of Heir
Apparent to the Throne," and added: "It is beset by more than
all the temptations of actual Royalty, while the weight of
counteracting responsibility is much less directly felt. It
must be with a feeling akin to hopelessness that a man in that
position offers up the familiar prayer, 'Lead us not into
temptation.' Other men may avoid much temptation if they
honestly endeavour to keep out of its way, but the heir to a
Throne is followed, dogged, and importuned by temptation in
its most seductive forms. It is not only the obviously bad
that he has to guard against; he must also steel himself
against much that comes in the specious garb of goodness and
almost with the imperious command of necessity. The King has
passed through that tremendous ordeal, prolonged through youth
and manhood to middle age. We shall not pretend that there is
nothing in his long career which those who respect and admire
him could not wish otherwise. Which of us can say that with
even approximate temptations to meet he could face the fierce
light that beats upon an heir apparent no less than upon the
Throne?"
The King was in his sixtieth year when he succeeded to the

throne, having been born on the 9th of November, 1841. "By
inheritance under a patent of Edward III., he became at once
Duke of Cornwall, and a month later he was created, by patent,
Prince of 'Wales and Earl of Chester—titles which do not pass
by descent." He was married to the Princess Alexandra, of
Denmark, on the 10th of March, 1863. The children born of the
marriage have been six in all—three sons and three daughters.
Of the former only one survives, Prince George, Duke of York,
the second son, who will no doubt be created Prince of Wales.
The eldest son, Prince Albert Victor, Duke of Clarence and
Avondale, died in his 27th year, on the eve of his marriage.
The third son, Alexander, born in 1871, died an infant. The
Duke of York is married to Princess Victoria Mary, daughter of
the late Duke of Teck and of his wife, Princess Mary of
Cambridge. There are four children of the marriage, three sons
and a daughter, the eldest son, in direct succession to the
Throne, bearing the name of Prince Edward Albert. Of the
daughters of the new Sovereign the eldest, Princess Louise, is
the wife of the Duke of Fife and has two daughters. Of her two
sisters, the Princess Victoria is unmarried. The Princess Maud
became in 1896 the wife of Prince Charles of Denmark.
ENGLAND: A. D. 1901 (February).

The opening of Parliament by King Edward VII.
The royal declaration against transubstantiation and
the invocation of saints.
Protest of Roman Catholic peers.
Parliament, reassembling on the 14th of February, was formally

opened by the King in person, with a degree of pomp and
ceremony which had been made strange by half a century of
disuse. King and Queen were escorted in procession, with all
possible state, from Buckingham Palace to Westminster.
Received there, at the royal entrance, by the great officers
of state, they were conducted, by a still more imposing
procession of dignitaries, to the "robing room." "His Majesty
being robed and the Imperial Crown borne by the Duke of
Devonshire (Lord President of the Council), the Procession
advanced into the House of Peers in the same order, except
that the Cap of Maintenance [a mediæval symbol of dignity] was
borne immediately before His Majesty, on the right hand of the

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Advances in Social Simulation 2015 1st

Edition Wander Jager

Advances in Simulation and Digital Human Modeling 1st

Advances in Experimental Social Psychology Volume 53

Numerical Simulation of Heat Exchangers: Advances in

Advances in Geocomputation: Geocomputation 2015--The

Advances in Image and Graphics Technologies 10th

Advances in Simulation Product Design and Development

Advances in Computer Games 14th International

Social Computing in Digital Education First

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11156

ISSN 2194-5357 ISSN 2194-5365 (electronic)

Library of Congress Control Number: 2016962193

© Springer International Publishing AG 2017

Printed on acid-free paper

This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature

Social simulation is a rapidly evolving field. Social scientists are increasingly

because it facilitates the communication between different disciplinary areas.

Groningen, The Netherlands Wander Jager

– ESSA@Work: Nanda Wijermans, Geeske Scholz, and Iljana Schubert

From Field Data to Attitude Formation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Modelling Contextual Decision-Making in Dilemma Games. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

SocialSIM: Real-Life Social Simulation as a Field for Students’

Opinions on Contested Infrastructures Over Time:

Kei-Léo Brousmiche, Jean-Daniel Kant, Nicolas Sabouret, and

Keywords Social simulation • Attitude formation and dynamics • Agent-based

K.-L. Brousmiche ()

© Springer International Publishing AG 2017 1

Several researches have already proposed computational models of attitudes, from

Table 1 % of the population favorable with two questions at different dates

3.2 Opinion Polls

4.1 General Approach

Our model is based on the following principle: a simulation corresponds to the

4.2 Attitude Computation

In order to determine what to base their attitude on and what to communicate to

interest.a/ D log.NI.a// D ˛E.a/ C .1 ˛/S.a/

evaluation.a/ D payoff .a/ att.i; bnf .a//

In this section, we present the experimental results of our model. We aim to

5.1 Simulation Settings and Initialization

5.2 Calibration Method

5.3 Calibration Results

Fig. 2 Simulation results compared to opinion polls

First, the established scenario is based on subjective assessments of some Blue

5.4 Attitude Dynamics

Fig. 3 Attitude mean toward Red Force between P1 and P2

Fig. 4 Attitude mean toward Blue Force between P3 and P4

5.5 Role of Co-responsibility

To show the impact of the co-responsibility mechanism, we have performed a

Fig. 5 Impact of co-responsibility

observations, we proposed a simulation model of attitude dynamics. This model

"She always maintained and practised a rigorous supervision

In the House of Commons, on the same day, Mr. Balfour, the

"Sir, it would be almost impertinent for me were I to attempt

The especial and peculiar importance which Queen Victoria had

A statement in the "London Times" of January 26 shows the

9 children of whom 6 survive

[A total of] 86 [of whom] 74 [survive].

"Of the great-grandchildren 22 are boys and 15 are girls; 6

"It will be seen that in the course of nature the future

ENGLAND: A. D. 1901 (January-February).

On Wednesday, the 23d of January—the day following the death

"The King's Most Excellent Majesty in Council. His Majesty

"'Your Royal Highnesses, My Lords, and Gentlemen, This is the