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Studies in Computational Intelligence 693

Hocine Cherifi
Sabrina Gaito
Walter Quattrociocchi
Alessandra Sala Editors

Complex
Networks & Their
Applications V
Proceedings of the 5th International
Workshop on Complex Networks and
their Applications (COMPLEX NETWORKS
2016)
Studies in Computational Intelligence

Volume 693

Series editor
Janusz Kacprzyk, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
e-mail: kacprzyk@ibspan.waw.pl
About this Series

The series “Studies in Computational Intelligence” (SCI) publishes new develop-

ments and advances in the various areas of computational intelligence—quickly and
with a high quality. The intent is to cover the theory, applications, and design
methods of computational intelligence, as embedded in the fields of engineering,
computer science, physics and life sciences, as well as the methodologies behind
them. The series contains monographs, lecture notes and edited volumes in
computational intelligence spanning the areas of neural networks, connectionist
systems, genetic algorithms, evolutionary computation, artificial intelligence,
cellular automata, self-organizing systems, soft computing, fuzzy systems, and
hybrid intelligent systems. Of particular value to both the contributors and the
readership are the short publication timeframe and the worldwide distribution,
which enable both wide and rapid dissemination of research output.

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/7092

Hocine Cherifi Sabrina Gaito
•

Walter Quattrociocchi Alessandra Sala

•

Editors

Complex Networks & Their

Applications V
Proceedings of the 5th International
Workshop on Complex Networks and their
Applications (COMPLEX NETWORKS
2016)

123
Editors
Hocine Cherifi Walter Quattrociocchi
University of Burgundy IMT Lucca
Dijon Lucca
France Italy

Sabrina Gaito Alessandra Sala

Computer Science Department Blanchardstown Business and Technology
University of Milan Park
Milan Bell Labs-Nokia
Italy Blanchardstown
Ireland

ISSN 1860-949X ISSN 1860-9503 (electronic)

Studies in Computational Intelligence
ISBN 978-3-319-50900-6 ISBN 978-3-319-50901-3 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-50901-3
Library of Congress Control Number: 2016959260

© Springer International Publishing AG 2017

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part
of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission
or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar
methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from
the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the
authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or
for any errors or omissions that may have been made.

Printed on acid-free paper

This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature

The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Preface

The International Workshop on Complex Networks & their Applications was first
held in 2012. It was initially conceived as a forum to bring together researchers from
a wide variety of fields ranging from Computational Social Science, to Economic
Complexity, up to Bioinformatics to review current scientific work and formulate new
directions in network science. The tradition has continued with an annual single-track
meeting that has become one of the leading international events in the field. Fuelled
by the skills and expertise of participants from these diverse research fields, this
workshop allows for cross-fertilization between fundamental and applied research. It
offers a unique opportunity for reflection on the current state of the field, unanswered
but critical questions, and potential future directions.
This volume of proceedings provides an opportunity for readers to engage with
a selection of papers presented during the Fifth edition, hosted by the University
of Milan (Italy), from November 30 to December 02, 2016. Although, they do not
provide a fully comprehensive coverage of the field, the 65 papers selected by the
Scientific Committee reflect the interdisciplinary nature of the scientific areas covered
by the workshop. They have been organized in 11 sections reflecting multiple aspects
of complex network research:
• Network models
• Network measures
• Community structure
• Network dynamics
• Diffusion, epidemics and spreading processes
• Resilience and control
• Network visualization
• Social and political networks
• Networks in finance and economics
• Biological and ecological networks
• Network analysis
A very encouraging response has been received by COMPLEX NETWORKS 2016
in terms of submissions. The 204 contributions that we received from 47 countries

v
vi Preface

around the world reflect the great vitality and diversity of the complex network
community. All the submissions have been peer reviewed from at least 3 independent
reviewers from our strong international program committee in order to ensure high
quality of contributed material as well as adherence to the conference topics. After
the review process, 65 papers were selected to be included in the proceedings.
Each edition of the workshop represents a challenge that cannot be successfully
achieved without the deep involvement of numerous people and institutions. We
address sincere thanks to all of them for their support, and to the University of Milan
for making us so welcome.
We are very grateful to our keynote speakers for their plenary lectures covering
different areas of the conference. The talk of Guido Caldarelli (IMT Lucca - Italy)
focused on the origins of instability in financial networks. The presentation given by
Raissa D’Souza (U. C. Davis - USA) dealt with the steering and controlling systems
of interdependent networks. Renaud Lambiotte (University of Namur -Belgium)
gave a talk on “Burstiness and spreading on networks: models and predictions” and
Yamir Moreno (University of Zaragoza - Spain) presented the talk “On the structure
and dynamics of multilayer networks”. The talk given by Eiko Yoneki (University
of Cambridge - UK) was about “Efficient large-scale graph processing” and Ben
Y. Zhao (U. C. Santa-Barbara - USA) covered the link prediction issue from an
empirical perspective. Their support of the workshop is without a doubt one of the
reasons of the success of COMPLEX NETWORKS 2016.
Two speakers gave very illuminating tutorials that drew many conference partici-
pants. These talks, held on November 29, 2016 were accessible to a general audience
of graduate students. Ernesto Estrada (University of Strathclyde Glasgow - UK)
gave a lecture on “Consensus dynamics on networks. Theory and applications” and
Bruno Gonçalves (New York University - USA) delivered a practical introduction to
machine learning (with Python).
We record our thanks to our fellow members of the Organizing Committee:
Chantal Cherifi (University of Lyon2 - France) and Antonio Scala (CNR - Italy), the
poster chairs, for arranging the poster session program and the editing of the book
of abstracts; Bruno Gonçalves (New York University - USA), the publicity chair,
for his work in securing a substantial input of papers from both Asia and America
and in encouraging participation from those areas; and all the session chairs for their
outstanding participation. We would also like to record our appreciation for the work
of the Local Arrangement Committee. In particular, Carlo Piccardi (Politecnico di
Milano - Italy) and Fabio Della Rossa (Politecnico di Milano - Italy) in making all
the excellent logistical arrangements for the conference. We also acknowledge the
important contributions of the members of the Computer Science Department of the
University of Milan. In particular, the team of the NPTLab ( University of Milan)
led by Gian Paolo Rossi. We thank him for his unwavering support. Many thanks
to its junior members, Matteo Zignani and Christan Quadri for the incredible work
they have done in the organization and the editing of the proceeding. We extend our
thanks to Matteo Re and Giorgio Valentini, their efforts made a great contribution to
the success of the workshop.
Preface vii

We are also indebted to our partners, Alessandro Fellegara and Alessandro Egro
along with their team (Tribe Communication) for their passion and patience in
designing the visual identity of the workshop. Our gratitude must also be extended to
our sponsors, Blogmeter, Celi and Shaman, for supporting the workshop.
We would also like to express our deepest appreciation to all those who have
helped us for the success of this meeting. Sincere thanks to the contributors, the
success of the technical program would not be possible without their creativity.
Finally, we would like to express our most sincere thanks to the Program Committee
members who have so generously volunteered their precious time to support the peer
review process.
We hope that this volume makes a useful contribution to issues surrounding the
fascinating world of complex networks and that you enjoy the papers as much as we
enjoyed organizing the conference and putting this collection of papers together.

Milan, Hocine Cherifi

November 2016 Sabrina Gaito
Walter Quattrociocchi
Alessandra Sala
Organization & Committees

General Chair Hocine Cherifi, University of Burgundy, France

Program Sabrina Gaito, University of Milan, Italy

Co-Chairs Walter Quattrociocchi, IMT Institute for Advanced Studies, Italy
Alessandra Sala, Bell Labs Dublin, Ireland

Poster Chairs Chantal Cherifi, University of Lyon 2, France

Antonio Scala, Institute for Complex Systems / Italian National
Research Council, Italy

Publicity Chair Bruno Gonçalves, New York University, USA

Local Chairs Carlo Piccardi, Politecnico di Milano, Italy

Sabrina Gaito, University of Milan, Italy

Local Committee Fabio Della Rossa, Politecnico di Milano, Italy

Christian Quadri, University of Milan, Italy
Matteo Re, University of Milan, Italy
Giorgio Valentini, University of Milan, Italy
Matteo Zignani, University of Milan, Italy

Web Chair Matteo Zignani, University of Milan, Italy

Submission Christian Quadri, University of Milan, Italy

Chairs Matteo Zignani, University of Milan, Italy

ix
x Organization & Committees

Program Sebastian Ahnert, University of Cambridge, UK

Committee Luca Maria Aiello, Yahoo Labs, Spain
Tatsuya Akutsu, Kyoto University, Japan
Reka Albert, Pennsylvania State University, USA
Antoine Allard, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain
Claudio Altafini, Linköping University, Sweden
Alvarez-Zuzek Lucila, IFIMAR-UNMdP, Argentina
Fred Amblard, IRIT - University Toulouse 1 Capitole, France
Claudio Angione, Teesside University, UK
Antonioni Alberto, Carlos III University of Madrid, Spain
Nuno Araujo, Universidade de Lisbona, Portugal
Valerio Arnaboldi, IIT-CNR, Italy
Martin Atzmueller, University of Kassel, Germany
Rodolfo Baggio, Bocconi University, Italy
James Bagrow, University of Vermont, USA
Nikita Basov, St Petersburg State University, Russia
Gareth Baxter, University of Aveiro, Portugal
Rosa M. Benito, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Spain
Ginestra Bianconi, Queen Mary University, UK
Javier Borge-Holthoefer, IN3-UOC, Barcelona, Spain
Stefan Bornholdt, University of Bremen, Germany
Dan Braha, NECSI, USA
Marcus Brede, University of Bristol, UK
Piotr Brodka, Wroclaw University of Technology, Poland
Javier M. Buldu, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Spain
Raffaella Burioni, Università di Parma, Italy
Vincenza Carchiolo, Università di Catania, Italy
Alessio Cardillo, EPFL, Switzerland
Ciro Cattuto, ISI Foundation, Italy
Nitesh V. Chawla, University of Notre Dame, USA
Guanrong Chen, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Kwang-Cheng Chen, National Taiwan University, Taiwan
Chantal Cherifi, Lyon 2 University, France
Richard Clegg, Imperial College, London, UK
Jack Cole, ARL, USA
Luciano Costa, Universidade de SaPaulo, Brasil
Regino Criado, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Spain
Mihai Cucuringu, UCLA, USA
Jean-Charles, Delvenne, University of Louvain, Belgium
Fabrizio De Vico Fallani, INRIA, France
Jana Diesner, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, USA
Florian Dorfler, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Jordi Duch, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Spain
Mohammed El Hassouni, Rabat University, Morocco
Ernesto Estrada, University of Strathclyde, UK
Organization & Committees xi

Tim Evans, Imperial College London, UK

Mauro Faccin, University of Louvain, Belgium
Giorgio Fagiolo, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Italy
Alessandro Flammini, Indiana University, USA
Eric Fleury, ENS Lyon / INRIA, France
Mattia Frasca, University of Catania, Italy
Jose Manuel Galan, University of Burgos, Spain
Antonios Garas, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Gourab Ghoshal, University of Rochester, USA
Silvia Giordano, University of Applied Sciences and
Arts of Southern Switzerland, Switzerland
James Gleeson, University of Limerick, Ireland
Kwang-Il Goh, Korea University, South Korea
Sergio Gomez, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Spain
Bruno Gonçalves, New York University, USA
Steve Gregory, University of Bristol, UK
Hasan Guclu, University of Pittsburgh, USA
Jean-Loup Guillaume, University of La Rochelle, France
Roger Guimera, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Spain
Mehmet Gunes, University of Nevada, Reno, USA
Aric Hagberg, Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA
Chris Hankin, Imperial College London, UK
Laurent Hebert-Dufresne, Santa Fe Institute, USA
Desmond Higham, University of Strathclyde, UK
Seok-Hee Hong, University of Sydney, Australia
Philipp Hoevel, TU Berlin, Germany
Ulrich Hoppe, University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany
Pan Hui, Hong Kong Univ. of Science and Technology, Hong Kong
Gerardo Iniguez, UNAM, Mexico
Marco Javarone, Universitá di Sassari, Italy
Hawoong Jeong, KAIST, South Korea
Marcus Kaiser, Newcastle University, UK
Rushed Kanawati, Université Paris 13, France
Marton Karsai, ENS Lyon / INRIA, France
Dror Kenett, Boston University, USA
Hyoungshick Kim, Sungkyunkwan University, South Korea
Maksim Kitsak, Northeastern University, USA
Mikko Kivela, Aalto University, Finland
Peter Klimek, University of Vienna, Austria
Jerome Kunegis, University of Koblenz-Landau, Germany
Ryszard Kutner, University of Warsaw, Poland
Renaud Lambiotte, University of Namur, Belgium
Christine Largeron, Lyon University, France
Matthieu Latapy, CNRS-Paris 6, France
Anna T. Lawniczak, University of Guelph, Canada
Eric Leclercq, University of Burgundy, France
xii Organization & Committees

Sang Hoon, Lee, KIAS, South Korea

Yang-Yu Liu, Harvard University, USA
Alessandro Lomi, USI, Switzerland
Alessandro Longheu, DIEEI - University of Catania, Italy
John C.S. Lui, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Padraig MacCarron, University of Oxford, UK
Matteo Magnani, Uppsala University, Sweden
Clémence, Magnien, Université Paris 6, France
Giuseppe Mangioni, University of Catania, Italy
Michael Mas, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Naoki Masuda, University of Bristol, UK
Petr Matous, University of Sydney, Australia
Natarajan Meghanathan, Jackson State University, USA
Sandro Meloni, University of Zaragoza, Spain
Jose Mendes, Universidade de Aveiro, Portugal
Ronaldo Menezes, Florida Institute of Technology, USA
Henning Meyerhenke, Karlsruhe University of Technology, Germany
Radoslaw Michalski, Wroclaw University of Technology, Poland
Tijana Milenkovic, University of Notre Dame, USA
Giovanna Miritello, Telefonica Research, Spain
Bivas Mitra, IIT Kharagpur, India
Suzy Moat, University of Warwick, UK
Misael Mongiovi, CNR, Italy
Yamir Moreno, Universidad de Zaragoza, Spain
Igor Mozetic, Jozef Stefan Institute, Slovenia
Tsuyoshi Murata, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan
Andrea Omicini, University of Bologna, Italy
Eilsa Omodei, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Spain
Gergely Palla, Eötvös University, Hungary
Pietro Panzarasa, Queen Mary University of London, UK
Fragkiskos Papadopoulos, Cyprus University of Technology, Cyprus
Symeon Papadopoulos, Information Technologies Institute, Greece
Michela Papandrea, University of Applied Sciences and
Arts of Southern Switzerland, Switzerland
Han Woo Park, YeungNam University, South Korea
Juyong Park, KAIST, South Korea
Andrea Passarella, CNR, Italy
Tiago Peixoto, Universität Bremen, Germany
Matjaz Perc, University of Maribor, Slovenia
Nicola Perra, University of Greenwich, UK
Giovanni Petri, ISI Foundation, Italy
Chiara Poletto, Inserm, Paris, France
Marco Quaggiotto, ISI Foundation, Italy
Asha Rao, RMIT University, Australia
Massimo Riccaboni, IMT Lucca, Italy
Luis E C Rocha, Karolinska Institutet, Sweden
Luis M. Rocha, Indiana University, USA
Organization & Committees xiii

Francisco Rodrigues, University of Sao Paulo, Brasil

Henrik Ronellenfitsch, University of Pennsylvania, USA
Marta Sales-Pardo, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Spain
Hiroki Sayama, Binghamton University, USA
Antonio Scala, Institute for Complex Systems / Italian
National Research Council, Italy
Maximilian Schich, University of Texas at Dallas, USA
Ingo Scholtes, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Frank Schweitzer, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Aneesh Sharma, Twitter Inc., USA
Rajesh Sharma, University of Bologna, Italy
Filippo Simini, University of Bristol, UK
Anurag Singh, NIT Delhi, India
Persebastian Skardal, Trinity College, UK
Chaoming Song, University of Miami, USA
Mauro Sozio, Telecom Paris Tech, France
Markus Strohmaier, University of Koblenz-Landau, Germany
Michael Szell, Northeastern University, USA
Bosiljka Tadic, Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Andrea Tagarelli, University of Calabria, Italy
I-Hsien Ting, National University of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Olivier Togni, University of Burgundy, France
Jan Treur, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands
Liubov Tupikina, PIK, Potsdam, Germany
Stephen Uzzo, New York Hall of Science, USA
Piet Van Mieghem, Delft University of Technology, Netherlands
Balazs Vedres, Central European University, Hungary
Huijuan Wang, Delft University of Technology, Netherlands
Xiao-Fan Wang, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China
Pinghui Wang, Xi’an Jiaotong University, China
Christo Wilson, Northeastern University, USA
Bin Wu, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, China
Zi-Ke Zhang, Hangzhou Normal University, China
Matteo Zignani, University of Milan, Italy
Contents

Part I Network models

A Hypotheses-driven Bayesian Approach for Understanding Edge

Formation in Attributed Multigraphs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Lisette Espı́n-Noboa,Florian Lemmerich, Markus Strohmaier and Philipp
Singer

Generating Scaled Replicas of Real-World Complex Networks . . . . . . . . . 17

Christian L. Staudt, Michael Hamann, Ilya Safro, Alexander Gutfraind and
Henning Meyerhenke
Modeling of Data Communication Networks using Dynamic Complex
Networks and its Performance Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Suchi Kumari and Anurag Singh
Testing for the signature of policy in online communities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Alberto Cottica, Guy Melançon and Benjamin Renoust
A Temporal-Causal Network Model for the Relation Between Religion
and Human Empathy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Laila van Ments, Peter Roelofsma and Jan Treur
Network-Oriented Modeling and Analysis of Dynamics Based on
Adaptive Temporal-Causal Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Jan Treur

What governs a language’s lexicon? Determining the organizing

principles of phonological neighbourhood networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Rory Turnbull and Sharon Peperkamp
Dominance, Deference, and Hierarchy Formation in Wikipedia
Edit-Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
Jürgen Lerner and Alessandro Lomi

xv
xvi Contents

Part II Network Measures

Identifying Influential Spreaders by Graph Sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

Nikos Salamanos, Elli Voudigari and Emmanuel J. Yannakoudakis
Influential Actors Detection Using Attractiveness Model in Social Media
Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
Ziyaad Qasem, Marc Jansen, Tobias Hecking and H.Ulrich Hoppe
Analyzing Multiple Rankings of Influential Nodes in Multiplex Networks 135
Sude Tavassoli and Katharina A. Zweig

Preserving Sparsity in Dynamic Network Computations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147

Francesca Arrigo and Desmond J. Higham
Flows of Knowledge in Citation Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
Benjamin Renoust, Vivek Claver and Jean-François Baffier
Detecting Nestedness in Graphs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
Alexander Grimm and Claudio J. Tessone
Clustering of Paths in Complex Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
Mareike Bockholt and Katharina A. Zweig
Complexity Analysis of “Small-World Networks” and Spanning Tree
Entropy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
Raihana Mokhlissi, Dounia Lotfi, Joyati Debnath and Mohamed El Marraki
Graph Structure Similarity using Spectral Graph Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
Brian Crawford, Ralucca Gera, Jeffrey House, Thomas Knuth and Ryan Miller
A genetic algorithm-based approach to mapping the diversity of
networks sharing a given degree distribution and global clustering . . . . . . 223
Peter Overbury, Istvan Z. Kiss and Luc Berthouze
Within network learning on big graphs using secondary memory-based
random walk kernels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
Jianyi Lin, Marco Mesiti, Matteo Re and Giorgio Valentini

A Method for Evaluating the Navigability of Recommendation

Algorithms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247
Daniel Lamprecht, Markus Strohmaier and Denis Helic

Part III Community Structure

A New Decision Technique For Sub-community And Multi-Level

Knowledge Extraction In Social Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
Joseph Ndong and Ibrahima Gueye
Contents xvii

Vertex-centred Method to Detect Communities in Evolving Networks . . . . 275

Maël Canu, Marie-Jeanne Lesot and Adrien Revault d’Allonnes
Clustering, Prominence and Social Network Analysis on Incomplete
Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287
Kshiteesh Hegde, Malik Magdon-Ismail, Boleslaw Szymanski and Konstantin
Kuzmin
Evaluating the community partition quality of a network with a genetic
programming approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
Marco Buzzanca, Vincenza Carchiolo, Alessandro Longheu, Michele Malgeri
and Giuseppe Mangioni
A graph-based meta-approach for tag recommendation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
Manel Hmimida and Rushed Kanawati
Community detection in visibility networks: an approach to categorize
percussive influence on audio musical signals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321
Dirceu de Freitas Piedade Melo, Inacio de Sousa Fadigas and Hernane Borges
de Barros Pereira
Can we recognize the next user’s mobile community? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335
Ahlem Drif, Abdellah Boukerram, Yacine Slimani and Silvia Giordano

Part IV Dynamics on Networks

Why Amicus Curiae Cosigners Come and Go: A Dynamic Model of

Interest Group Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 349
Dino P. Christenson and Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier
Contradictory information flow in networks with trust and distrust . . . . . 361
Giuseppe Primiero, Michele Bottone, Franco Raimondi and Jacopo Tagliabue
The Echo Chamber Effect in Twitter: does community polarization
increase? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373
Siying Du and Steve Gregory
Semantic Stability in Wikipedia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385
Darko Stanisavljevic, Ilire Hasani-Mavriqi, Elisabeth Lex, Markus Strohmaier
and Denis Helic

Coopetition and Cooperosity over Opinion Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397

Domenico Tangredi, Raffaele Iervolino and Francesco Vasca
Effect of Direct Reciprocity on Continuing Prosperity of Social
Networking Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 411
Kengo Osaka, Fujio Toriumi and Toshiharu Sugawara
xviii Contents

Co-evolution of two networks representing different social relations in

NetSense . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 423
Ashwin Bahulkar and Boleslaw K. Szymanski and Kevin Chan and Omar
Lizardo

Part V Diffusion, Epidemics and Spreading Processes

The spread of ideas in a weighted threshold network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 437

Scott Cox, K.J. Horadam and Asha Rao
Information Diffusion in Heterogeneous Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 449
Jennifer M. Larson
A Novel Approach to Predict Retweets and Replies Based on Privacy
and Complexity-Aware Feature Planes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459
Kamini Garg, Valerio Arnaboldi and Silvia Giordano
Least Squares Method for Diffusion Source Localization in Complex
Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473
Mohammed Lalou and Hamamache Kheddouci

The effects of local network structure on disease spread in coupled

networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 487
W. Vermeer, B. Head and U. Wilensky
The Accuracy of Mean-Field Approximation for Susceptible-Infected-
Susceptible Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Infection
Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 499
Bo Qu and Huijuan Wang
Die-out Probability in SIS Epidemic Processes on Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . 511
Qiang Liu and Piet Van Mieghem

Part VI Resilience and Control

Robustness of Network Controllability to Degree-Based Edge Attacks . . . 525

Jijju Thomas, Supratim Ghosh, Deven Parek, Derek Ruths and Justin Ruths
Use of Random Topics as Practical Control Signals in a Social Network
Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 539
Francesca Casamassima and Marco Cremonini
A Multiplex Approach to Urban Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 551
A. Baggag, S. Abba, T. Zanouda, J. Borge-Holthoefer and J. Srivastava

Part VII Network Visualization

Contents xix

Efficient Genealogical Graph Layout . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 567

Radek Marik
NodeTrix-Multiplex: Visual Analytics of Multiplex Small World
Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 579
Shivam Agarwal, Amit Tomar and Jaya Sreevalsan-Nair

Part VIII Social and Political Networks

Structural Patterns of the Occupy Movement on Facebook . . . . . . . . . . . . . 595

Michela Del Vicario, Qian Zhang, Alessandro Bessi, Guido Caldarelli and
Fabiana Zollo
Political Participation in Mexico through Twitter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 607
Julio César Amador Dı́az López and C. A. Piña-Garcı́a

Online election campaigning: Identifying political parties using likes

and comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 619
Jessica Liebig, Mohammad Adib Khairuddin and Asha Rao
Journalistic Relevance Classification in Social Network Messages: an
Exploratory Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 631
Miguel Sandim, Paula Fortuna, Alvaro Figueira and Luciana Oliveira

Part IX Networks in Finance and Economics

Stock prices prediction via tensor decomposition and links forecast . . . . . . 645
Alessandro Spelta
Who buys what, where: Reconstruction of the international trade flows
by commodity and industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 657
Yuichi Ikeda and Tsutomu Watanabe

Network of Networks: A Meta-model for Simulated Financial Markets . . 671

Talal Alsulaiman and Khaldoun Khashanah

Part X Biological and Ecological Networks

Motif-Based Analysis of Effective Connectivity in Brain Networks . . . . . . 685

J. Meier, M. Märtens, A. Hillebrand, P. Tewarie and P. Van Mieghem
Functional Reconstruction of Dyadic and Triadic Subgraphs in Spiking
Neural Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 697
Myles Akin, Alex Onderdonk, Rhonda Dzakpasu and Yixin Guo
Modeling and Extending Ecological Networks Using Land Similarity . . . . 709
Gianni Fenu, Pier Luigi Pau and Danilo Dessı̀
xx Contents

Part XI Network Analysis

A graph-based, semi-supervised, credit card fraud detection system . . . . . 721

Bertrand Lebichot, Fabian Braun, Olivier Caelen and Marco Saerens

Modeling City Locations as Complex Networks: An initial study . . . . . . . . 735

Lu Zhou, Yang Zhang, Jun Pang and Cheng-Te Li
An analysis of the Bitcoin users graph: inferring unusual behaviours . . . . 749
Damiano Di Francesco Maesa, Andrea Marino and Laura Ricci

Networks with Hierarchical Structure: Applications to the Patent

Domain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 761
Nikolai Nefedov

Social Connection Dynamics in a Health Promotion Network . . . . . . . . . . . 773

Eric Fernandes de Mello Araújo, Michel Klein and Aart van Halteren

Social Networks and Construction of Culture: A Socio-Semantic

Analysis of Art Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 785
Nikita Basov, Ju-Sung Lee and Artem Antoniuk
Water Supply Network Partitioning Based On Weighted Spectral
Clustering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 797
Armando Di Nardo, Michele Di Natale, Carlo Giudicianni, Roberto Greco
and Giovanni Francesco Santonastaso
Robust optimization of power network operation: storage devices and
the role of forecast errors in renewable energies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 809
Carsten Matke, Daniel Bienstock, Gonzalo Muñoz, Shuoguang Yang, David
Kleinhans and Sebastian Sager

An Image Segmentation Algorithm based on Community Detection . . . . . 821

Youssef Mourchid, Mohammed El Hassouni and Hocine Cherifi

Author Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 831

 Part I
Network models
A Hypotheses-driven Bayesian Approach for
Understanding Edge Formation in Attributed
Multigraphs

Lisette Espı́n-Noboa,Florian Lemmerich, Markus Strohmaier and Philipp Singer

Abstract Understanding edge formation represents a key question in network analy-

sis. Various approaches have been postulated across disciplines ranging from network
growth models to statistical (regression) methods. In this work, we extend this ex-
isting arsenal of methods with a hypotheses-driven Bayesian approach that allows
to intuitively compare hypotheses about edge formation on attributed multigraphs.
We model the multiplicity of edges using a simple categorical model and propose to
express hypotheses as priors encoding our belief about parameters. Using Bayesian
model comparison techniques, we compare the relative plausibility of hypotheses
which might be motivated by previous theories about edge formation based on pop-
ularity or similarity. We demonstrate the utility of our approach on synthetic and
empirical data. This work is relevant for researchers interested in studying mecha-
nisms explaining edge formation in networks.

1 Introduction
Understanding edge formation in networks is a key interest of our research commu-
nity. For example, social scientists are frequently interested in studying relations
between entities within social networks, e.g., how social friendship ties form between
actors and explain them based on attributes such as a person’s gender, race, political
affiliation or age in the network [18]. Similarly, the complex networks community
suggests a set of generative network models aiming at explaining the formation of
edges focusing on the two core principles of popularity and similarity [15]. Thus,
a series of approaches to study edge formation have emerged including statistical
(regression) tools [10, 23] and model-based approaches [6, 15, 24] specifically estab-
lished in the physics and complex networks communities. Other disciplines such as
the computer sciences, biomedical sciences or political sciences use these tools to

Lisette Espı́n-Noboa · Florian Lemmerich · Markus Strohmaier · Philipp Singer

GESIS, University of Koblenz-Landau, e-mail: firstname.(first)lastname@gesis.
org

© Springer International Publishing AG 2017 3

H. Cherifi et al. (eds.), Complex Networks & Their Applications V,
Studies in Computational Intelligence 693,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-50901-3_1
4 Lisette Espı́n-Noboa,Florian Lemmerich, Markus Strohmaier and Philipp Singer

 ! 

   
! " ! " !  ! 

       
 
       

    
  

     
    

       

(a) Multigraph (b) Adjacency Matrix (c) Node Attributes

Fig. 1: Example: This example illustrates an unweighted attributed multigraph. (a)
Shows a multigraph where nodes represent academic researchers, and edges scientific
articles in which they have collaborated together. (b) Shows the adjacency matrix of
the graph, where every cell represents the total number of edges between two nodes.
(c) Decodes some attribute values per node. For instance, node D shows information
about an Austrian researcher who started his academic career in 2001.
answer empirical questions; e.g., co-authorship networks[12], wireless networks of
biomedical sensors [19], or community structures of political blogs [1].
Problem Illustration. For illustration, consider Fig. 1; nodes represent authors, and
(multiple) edges between them refer to co-authored scientific articles. Node attributes
provide additional information about the authors, e.g., their home country and gender.
An exemplary research question could be: “Can co-authorship be better explained
by a mechanism that assumes more collaborations between authors from the same
country or by a mechanism that assumes more collaborations between authors with
the same gender?”. These and similar questions motivate the main objective of this
work, which is to provide a Bayesian approach for understanding how edges emerge
in networks based on some characteristics of the nodes.
While several methods for tackling such questions have been proposed, they
come with certain limitations. For example, statistical regression methods based on
QAP [5] or mixed-effects models [20] do not scale to large-scale data and results
are difficult to interpret. For network growth models [15], it is necessary to find the
appropriate model for a given hypothesis about edge formation and thus, it is often
not trivial to intuitively compare competing hypotheses that sometimes might even
go beyond simple popularity and similarity mechanisms. Consequently, we want
to extend the methodological toolbox for studying edge formation in networks by
proposing a first step towards a hypotheses-driven generative Bayesian framework.
Approach and methods. We focus on understanding edge formation in node-
attributed multigraphs. We are interested in modeling and understanding the multi-
plicity of edges based on node attributes. Our approach follows a generative storyline.
First, we define the model that can characterize the edge formation at interest. We
focus on the simple categorical model, from which edges are independently drawn
from. Motivated by previous work on sequential data [21], the core idea of our
approach is to specify generative hypotheses about how edges emerge in a network.
These hypotheses might be motivated by previous theories such as popularity or
similarity [15]—e.g., for Fig. 1 we could hypothesize that authors are more likely
to collaborate with each other if they are from the same country. Technically, we
elicit these types of hypotheses as beliefs in parameters of the underlying categorical
Bayesian Approach for Understanding Edge Formation 5

model and encode and integrate them as priors into the Bayesian framework. Using
Bayes factors with marginal likelihood estimations allows us to compare the relative
plausibility of expressed hypotheses as they are specifically sensitive to the priors.
The final output is a ranking of hypotheses based on their plausibility given the data.
Contributions. Our main contributions are: (i) We present a first step towards a
Bayesian approach for comparing generative hypotheses about edge formation in
networks. (ii) We provide simple categorical models based on local and global
scenarios allowing the comparison of hypotheses for multigraphs. (iii) We provide
guidelines for building hypotheses based on node attributes. (iv) We demonstrate
the applicability of our approach on synthetic and empirical data. (v) We make an
implementation of this approach openly available1 on the Web.

2 Background
We start by introducing the underlying concepts of our approach.
Attributed Multigraphs. In this paper, we focus on multigraphs with attributed
nodes and unweighted edges without own identity. That means, each pair of nodes
can be connected by multiple indistinguishable edges, and there are features for the
individual nodes available.
We formally define this as: Let G = (V, E, F) be an unweighted attributed multi-
graph with V = (v1 , . . . , vn ) being a list of nodes, E = {(vi , v j )} ∈ V ×V a multiset of
either directed or undirected edges, and a set of feature vectors F = ( f1 , . . . , fn ). Each
feature vector fi = ( fi [1], ..., fi [c])T maps a node vi to c (numeric or categorical) at-
tribute values. The graph structure is captured by an adjacency matrix Mn×n = (mi j ),
where mi j is the multiplicity of edge (vi , v j ) in E (i.e., number of edges between
nodes vi and v j ). By definition, the total number of multiedges is l = |E| = ∑i j mi j .
Fig. 1a shows an example unweighted attributed multigraph: nodes represent
authors, and undirected edges represent co-authorship in scientific articles. The
adjacency matrix of this graph—counting for multiplicity of edges—is shown in Fig.
1b. Feature vectors (node attributes) are described in Fig. 1c. Thus, for this particular
case, we account for n = 4 nodes, l = 44 multiedges, and c = 6 attributes.
Bayesian Hypothesis Testing. Our approach compares hypotheses on edge forma-
tion based on techniques from Bayesian hypothesis testing [11, 21]. The elementary
Bayes’ theorem states for parameters θ , given data D and a hypothesis H that:
likelihood prior
posterior z }| { z }| {
z }| { P(D|θ , H) P(θ |H)
P(θ |D, H) = (1)
P(D|H)
| {z }
marginal likelihood
As observed data D, we use the adjacency matrix M, which encodes edges counts. θ
refers to the model parameters, which in our scenario correspond to the probabilities
of individual edges. H denotes a hypothesis under investigation. The likelihood
1 https://github.com/lisette-espin/JANUS
6 Lisette Espı́n-Noboa,Florian Lemmerich, Markus Strohmaier and Philipp Singer

  
   



 
   


        

   


  
 

  

         

 
   

(a) Global (b) Local

Fig. 2: Multigraph models: This figure shows two ways of modeling the undirected
multigraph shown in Fig. 1. That is, (a) global or graph-based model models the
whole graph as a single distribution. (b) Local or neighbour-based model models
each node as a separate distribution.
describes, how likely we observe data D given parameters θ and a hypothesis H. The
prior is the distribution of parameters we believe in before seeing the data; in other
words, the prior encodes our hypothesis H. The posterior represents an adjusted
distribution of parameters after we observe D. Finally, the marginal likelihood (also
called evidence) represents the probability of the data D given a hypothesis H.
In our approach, we exploit the sensitivity of the marginal likelihood on the
prior to compare and rank different hypotheses: more plausible hypotheses imply
higher evidence for data D. Formally, Bayes Factors can be employed for comparing
two hypotheses. These are computed as the ratio between the respective marginal
likelihood score. The strength of a Bayes factor can be judged using available
interpretation tables [7]. While in many cases determining the marginal likelihood
is computationally challenging and requires approximate solutions, we can rely on
exact and fast-to-compute solutions in the models employed in this paper.

3 Approach
In this section, we describe the main steps towards a hypotheses-driven Bayesian
approach for understanding edge formation in unweighted attributed multigraphs. To
that end, we propose intuitive models for edge formation (Section 3.1), a flexible
toolbox to formally specify belief in the model parameters (Section 3.2), a way of
computing proper (Dirichlet) priors from these beliefs (Section 3.2), computation
of the marginal likelihood in this scenario (Section 3.3), and guidelines on how to
interpret the results (Section 3.4). We subsequently discuss these issues one-by-one.

3.1 Generative Edge Formation Models

We propose two variations of our approach, which employ two different types of
generative edge formation models in multigraphs.
Global model. First, we utilize a simple global model, in which a fixed number of
graph edges are randomly and independently drawn from the set of all potential edges
in the graph G by sampling with replacement. Each edge (vi , v j ) is sampled from
Bayesian Approach for Understanding Edge Formation 7

     
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


(a) Belief matrix B1 (b) Normalized B1 (c) Prior κ = 4

Fig. 3: Prior belief: This figure illustrates the three main phases of prior elicitation.
That is, (a) a matrix representation of belief B1 , where authors are more likely to
collaborate with each other if they are from the same country. (b) B1 normalized
row-wise using the local model interpretation. (c) Prior elicitation for κ = 4; i.e.,
b
αi j = Zi j × κ + 1.
a categorical distribution with parameters θi j , 1 ≤ i ≤ n, 1 ≤ j ≤ n, ∀i j : ∑i j θi j =
1: (vi , v j ) ∼ Categorical(θi j ). This means that each edge is associated with one
probability θi j of being drawn next. Fig. 2a shows the maximum likelihood global
model for the network shown in Fig. 1. Since this is an undirected graph, inverse
edges can be ignored resulting in n(n + 1)/2 potential edges/parameters.
Local models. As an alternative, we can also focus on a local level. Here, we model
to which other node a specific node v will connect given that any new edge starting
from v is formed. We implement this by using a set of n separate models for the outgo-
ing edges of the ego-networks (i.e., the 1-hop neighborhood) of each of the n nodes.
The ego-network model for node vi is built by drawing randomly and independently
a number of nodes v j by sampling with replacement and adding an edge from vi to
this node. Each node v j is sampled from a categorical distribution with parameters
θi j , 1 ≤ i ≤ n, 1 ≤ j ≤ n, ∀i : ∑ j θi j = 1: v j ∼ Categorical(θi j ). The parameters θi j
can be written as a matrix; the value in cell (i, j) specifies the probability that a new
formed edge with source node vi will have the destination node v j . Thus, all values
within one row always sum up to one. Local models can be applied for undirected
and directed graphs (cf. also discussion in Section 6). In the directed case, we model
only the outgoing edges of the ego-network. Fig. 2b depicts the maximum likelihood
local models for our introductory example .

3.2 Hypothesis Elicitation

The main idea of our approach is to encode our beliefs in edge formation as Bayesian
priors over the model parameters. As a common choice, we employ Dirichlet distri-
butions as the conjugate priors of the categorical distribution. Thus, we assume that
the model parameters θ are drawn from a Dirichlet distribution with hyperparameters
α: θ ∼ Dir(α). Similar to the model parameters themselves, the Dirichlet prior (or
multiple priors for the local models) can be specified in a matrix. We will choose the
parameters α in such a way that they reflect a specific belief about edge formation.
For that purpose, we first specify matrices that formalize these beliefs, then we
compute the Dirichlet parameters α from these beliefs.
8 Lisette Espı́n-Noboa,Florian Lemmerich, Markus Strohmaier and Philipp Singer

Constructing Belief Matrices. We specify hypotheses about edge formation as

belief matrices B = bi j . These are n×n matrices, in which each cell bi j ∈ IR represents
a belief of having an edge from node vi to node v j . To express a belief that an edge
occurs more often (compared to other edges) we set bi j to a higher value. In general,
users have a large freedom to generate belief matrices. However, typical construction
principles are to assume that nodes with specific attributes are more popular and thus
edges connecting these attributes receive higher multiplicity, or to assume that nodes
that are similar with respect to one or more attributes are more likely to form an edge,
cf. [15]. Ideally, the elicitation of belief matrices is based on existing theories.
For example, based on the information shown in Fig. 1, one could “believe” that
two authors collaborate more frequently together if: (1) they both are from the same
country, (2) they share the same gender, (3) they have high positions, or (4) they are
popular in terms of number of articles and citations. We capture each of these beliefs
in one matrix. One implementation of the matrices for our example beliefs could be:
• B1 (same country): bi j := 0.9 if fi [country] = f j [country] and 0.1 otherwise
• B2 (same gender): bi j := 0.9 if fi [gender] = f j [gender] and 0.1 otherwise
• B3 (hierarchy): bi j := fi [position] · f j [position]
• B4 (popularity): bi j := fi [articles] + f j [articles] + fi [citations] + f j [citations]
Fig. 3a shows the matrix representation of belief B1 , and Fig. 3b its respective
row-wise normalization for the local model case. While belief matrices are identically
structured for local and global models, the ratio between parameters in different rows
is crucial for the global model, but irrelevant for local ones.
Eliciting a Dirichlet prior. In order to obtain the hyperparameters α of a prior
Dirichlet distribution we utilize the pseudo-count interpretation of the parameters
αi j of the Dirichlet distribution, i.e., a value of αi j can be interpreted as αi j − 1
previous observations of the respective event for αi j ≥ 1. We distribute pseudo-
counts proportionally to a belief matrix. Consequently, the hyperparameters can be
b
expressed as: αi j = Zi j × κ + 1, where κ is the concentration parameter of the prior.
The normalization constant Z is computed as the sum of all entries of the belief
matrix in the global model, and as the respective row sum in the local case. We
suggest to set κ = n × k, k = {0, 1, ..., 10}. A high value of κ expresses a strong
belief in the prior parameters. A similar alternative method to obtain Dirichlet priors
is the trial roulette method [21]. For the global model variation, all α values are
parameters for the same Dirichlet distribution, whereas in the local model variation,
each row parametrizes a separate Dirichlet distribution.

3.3 Computation of the Marginal Likelihood

For comparing the relative plausibility of hypotheses we use the marginal likelihood.
This is the aggregated likelihood over all possible values of the parameters θ weighted
by the Dirichlet prior. For our set of local models we can calculate them as:
Bayesian Approach for Understanding Edge Formation 9

n Γ (∑nj=1 αi j ) n Γ (αi j + mi j )
P(D|H) = ∏ n ∏ (2)
i=1 Γ (∑ j=1 αi j + mi j ) j=1 Γ (αi j )
Recall, αi j encodes our prior belief connecting nodes vi and v j in G, and mi j are
the actual edge counts. Since we evaluate only a single model in the global case, the
product over rows i of the adjacency matrix can be removed, and we obtain:
Γ (∑ni=1 ∑nj=1 αi j ) n n Γ (α + m )
ij ij
P(D|H) = (3)
Γ (∑ni=1 ∑nj=1 αi j + mi j ) ∏ ∏ Γ (αi j )
i=1 j=1
Equation (3) holds for directed networks. In the undirected case, indices j go
from i to n accounting for only half of the matrix including the diagonal. For a
detailed derivation of the marginal likelihood given a Dirichlet-Categorical model
see [22, 25]. For both models we focus on the log-marginal likelihoods in practice to
avoid underflows.
Bayes Factor. Formally, we compare the relative plausibility of hypotheses by using
so-called Bayes factors [7], which simply are the ratios of the marginal likelihoods
for two hypotheses H1 and H2 . If it is positive, the first hypothesis is judged as more
plausible. The strength of the Bayes factor can be checked in an interpretation table
provided by Kass and Raftery [7].

3.4 Application of the Method and Interpretation of Results

We now showcase an example application of our approach featuring the network
shown in Fig. 1, and demonstrate how results can be interpreted. For that purpose
and due to space limitations, we focus on the local models variant.
Hypotheses. We compare four hypotheses (represented as belief matrices) B1 , B2 ,
B3 , and B4 elaborated in Section 3.2. Additionally, we use the uniform hypothesis
as a baseline. It assumes that all edges are equally likely, i.e., bi j = 1 for all i, j.
Hypotheses that are not more plausible than the uniform cannot be assumed to
capture relevant underlying mechanisms of edge formation. We also use the data
hypothesis as an upper bound for comparison, which employs the observed adjacency
matrix as belief: bi j = mi j .
Calculation and visualization. For each hypothesis H and every κ, we can elicit
the Dirichlet priors (cf. Section 3.2), determine the aggregated marginal likelihood
(cf. Section 3.3), and compare the plausibility of hypotheses compared to the uni-
form hypothesis at the same κ by calculating the logarithm of the Bayes factor as
log(P(D|H)) − log(P(D|Huni f orm )). We suggest two ways of visualizing the results,
i.e., ploting the marginal likelihood values (Fig. 4a) or showing the Bayes factors
(Fig. 4b) on the y-axis. In both cases, the x-axis refers to the concentration parameter
κ. While the visualization showing directly the marginal likelihoods carries more
information, visualizing Bayes factors makes it easier to spot smaller differences
between the hypotheses.
Interpretation. Every line in both figures represents a hypothesis. In Fig. 4a, higher
evidence values mean higher plausibility. Similarly, in Fig. 4b positive Bayes factors
10 Lisette Espı́n-Noboa,Florian Lemmerich, Markus Strohmaier and Philipp Singer

 







     
 







 

   !
     

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  !    

 
 # 
  


   





 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 

           

(a) Evidences (b) Bayes Factors

Fig. 4: Ranking of hypotheses for the introductory example. Rankings can be
visualized using (a) the marginal likelihood or evidence (y-axis), or (b) Bayes factors
(y-axis) by setting the uniform hypothesis as a baseline to compare with; higher values
refer to higher plausibility. The x-axis depicts the concentration parameter κ. For this
example, authors from the multigraph shown in Fig. 1 appear to prefer to collaborate
more often with researchers of the same country rather than due to popularity (i.e.,
number of articles and citations). Note that all hypotheses outperform the uniform,
meaning that they all represent reasonable explanations of edge formation for the
given graph.
mean that for a given κ, the hypothesis is judged to be more plausible than the
uniform baseline hypothesis; here, the relative Bayes factors also provide a ranking.
If evidences or Bayes factors are increasing with κ, we can interpret this as further
evidence for the plausibility of expressed hypothesis as this means that the more we
believe in it, the higher the Bayesian approach judges its plausibility. As a result for
our example, we see that the hypothesis believing that two authors are more likely
to collaborate if they are from the same country is the most plausible one (after the
data hypothesis). In this example, all hypotheses appear to be more plausible than
the baseline, but this is not necessarily the case in all applications.

4 Experiments
We demonstrate the utility of our approach on both synthetic and empirical networks.
Due to space limitations, we only showcase the local model results.

4.1 Synthetic Attributed Multigraph

We start with experiments on a synthetic attributed multigraph. Here, we control the
underlying mechanisms of how edges in the network emerge and thus, expect these
also to be good hypotheses for our approach.
Network. The network contains 100 nodes where each node is assigned one of
two colors with uniform probability. For each node, we then randomly drew 200
undirected edges where each edge connects randomly with probability p = 0.8 to a
Bayesian Approach for Understanding Edge Formation 11



     






  




 
 





















     

(a) Adjacency Matrix (b) Bayes Factors

Fig. 5: Ranking of hypotheses for synthetic network. In (a), we show the adjacency
matrix of the 2-color random multigraph with a node correlation of 80% for nodes
of the same color and 20% otherwise. One can see homophily based on more
connections between nodes of the same color; the diagonal is zero as there are no self-
connections. In (b), we show the ranking of hypotheses based on Bayes factors when
compared to the uniform hypothesis. As expected, the homophily hypothesis explains
the edge formation best (positive Bayes factor), and the heterophily and selfloop
hypotheses show negative Bayes factors—i.e., they provide no good explanations for
edge formation.
different node of the same color, and with p = 0.2 to a node of the opposite color.
The adjacency matrix of this graph is visualized in Fig. 5a.
Hypotheses. In addition to the uniform baseline hypothesis, we construct two intu-
itive hypotheses based on the node color that express belief in possible edge formation
mechanics. First, the homophily hypothesis assumes that nodes of the same color
are more likely to have more edges between them. Therefore, we arbitrary set belief
values bi j to 80 when nodes vi and v j are of the same color, and 20 otherwise. Second,
the heterophily hypothesis expresses the opposite behavior; i.e., bi j = 80 if the color
of nodes vi and v j are different, and 20 otherwise. An additional selfloop hypothesis
only believes in self-connections (i.e., diagonal of adjacency matrix).
Results. Fig. 5b shows the ranking of hypotheses based on their Bayes factors com-
pared to the uniform hypothesis. Clearly, the homophily hypothesis is judged as the
most plausible. This is expected and corroborates the fact that network connections
are biased towards nodes of the same color. The heterophily and selfloop hypotheses
show negative Bayes factors; thus, they are not good hypotheses about edge formation
in this network. Due to the fact that the multigraph lacks of selfloops, the selfloop
hypothesis decreases very quickly with increasing strength of belief κ.

4.2 Empirical Attributed Multigraph

Here, we focus on a real-world contact network based on wearable sensors.
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
 Kuvaukset Kullervon voimatöistä tavataan myöskin Länsi-
Suomessa satuina Kalevan pojista. Miltei ympäri Suomenhan on
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Kuvauksen Kullervon sodanhalusta on Lönnrot saanut alkuaan

aivan itsenäisistä runoista, joita jo laulajat kumminkin useissa
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Aino nimeä ei kansanrunoissa tavata. Kun muutamat runot alkavat

säkeellä: Anni tytti, aino tytti, muodosti Lönnrot aino-sanasta
ominaisnimen siten että kirjoitti sen isolla alkukirjaimella. Aino-runo
Kalevalassa on pääasiallisesti kokoonpantu venäjänkarjalaisista
toisinnoista. Niissä kerrotaan, miten Anni menee metsään vastaksia
taittamaan, jolloin Osmoinen tai Kalevainen tulee häntä kosinta-
aikeissa mairittelemaan. Anni juokse silloin pahastuneena itkien
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ynnä tytölle kukkuvasta kolmesta käestä. Eteläiseltä runoalueelta on
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riisuutuu rannalla ja että metsän eläimet vievät sanan
hukuttautumisesta tytön kotiin. Ainon aaltoihin hukuttautuminen on
Lönnrotin muovailema, hänestä tuntui aittaan hirttäytyminen liian
epärunolliselta.

Salaperäiseen Sampoon on Kalevalassa liittynyt niin suuri osa

toiminnasta, että sen ovat muutamat katsoneet olevan ikäänkuin
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on Kaarle Krohnin kylläkin onnistunut osoittaa ja sampo-sanan on
hän johtanut sampi-kalasta, joka sittemmin olisi saanut hyvän saaliin
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ytimenä on ollut legendan-tapainen Päivänpäästöruno.
 Krohn on huomauttanut laulajain selitysten, että ellei
Väinämöiseltä olisi hajotettu Sampoa, ei täällä olisi halloja eikä
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sirpaleista elämän mahdollisuutta luomaan.»

Ja sirpaleistahan kansamme on luonut merkillisen eepoksensakin.

Monesta on ehkä tuntunu ikävältä kun tutkijat ovat noista runoista ja
niiden sankareista poistaneet tarunomaisen muinaisuuden hohteen
osoittaessaan vain osan olevan puhdasta perua esi-isiemme
pakanallisesta jumalaistarustosta ja kotimaisista historiallisista
aiheista ja melkoisen osan olevan lainaa kristillisestä aatepiiristä
sekä muutamien naapurikansoilta. Mutta tulee ottaa huomioon, että
vaikkakin muutamat muilta lainatut tarut ovat olleet sinä alkuaiheena,
joka on saanut suomalaisen mielikuvituksen liikkeelle, niin on
tuloksena ollut aivan omintakeinen runous, jossa kansamme
omaperäisellä tavalla ja sävyllä, niinkuin mikään muu heimo
maailmassa ei olisi sitä tehnyt, on antanut kuvan itsestään, siitä
mitkä mielikuvitukset, haaveet, harhaluulot ja vaistot vuosituhansien
kuluessa ovat syöpyneet tämän mietiskelevän metsien heimon
veriin.
 *** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK KALEVALA
SUOMEN KANSAN HENGENTUOTTEENA ***

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