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DEVELOPMENT AID
AND
ADAPTATION TO
CLIMATE CHANGE
IN
DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES
Carola Betzold and Florian Weiler
Development Aid and Adaptation to Climate
Change in Developing Countries
Carola Betzold • Florian Weiler
v
vi PREFACE
and turn the conference paper into a book-length project. Without this
encouragement, we would not have written this book, and so we would
like to thank Christina first and foremost. We would also like to extend our
gratitude to the entire editing and production team for their support.
While statistical analyses of aid data served as the starting point of our
research project, we noted that numbers can only tell us so much. We
hence extended our first attempt at understanding how adaptation aid is
distributed through in-depth qualitative case studies. These built mainly
on semi-structured interviews with practitioners and other stakeholders
and observers in the aid sector in Germany, Sweden, and the United
Kingdom, our case study countries. We are very grateful to all our interview
partners for taking the time to speak to us and sharing their experiences and
perspectives. Funding from the Fritz Thyssen Foundation made it possible
for us to travel to Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom to conduct
interviews face-to-face.
We would also like to thank the many colleagues who helped develop
our research and this book. Thanks in particular to Anaïd Flesken for
helpful comments on previous versions of the book. Participants at the
workshop ‘Climate Finance: Taking Stock, Future Directions for Policy and
Research’ held in Lund in April 2015 provided useful comments on parts of
the project, as did Katja Michaelowa, Axel Michaelowa, Paula Castro, and
participants at the Climate and Environment Workshop held in Zurich in
January 2015. Matthew Dornan contributed to our larger research project
and provided valuable input on the aggregate analysis of all donors. Tobias
Jakobi helped with some technical questions. All errors remain of course
our own.
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Definition of Key Concepts 3
1.1.1 Adaptation to Climate Change 4
1.1.2 Vulnerability 4
1.2 The Cost of Climate Change Adaptation 7
1.3 Financing Climate Change Adaptation 9
1.4 Overview of the Book and Contributions 11
References 15
2 The History and Political Economy of Adaptation Aid 21
2.1 History of Adaptation and Adaptation Finance in
Climate Change Negotiations 22
2.1.1 Adaptation at the Sidelines: The Early Years of
Climate Change Negotiations 22
2.1.2 Adaptation to the Fore: Adaptation Finance from
2001 to 2009 25
2.1.3 Finance Breakthrough: Adaptation Finance Since
2009 26
2.2 Adaptation Finance or Adaptation Aid? The Question of
Additionality 28
vii
viii CONTENTS
xi
xii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
xiii
xiv LIST OF FIGURES
Fig. 5.5 Effects of the donor interest variables for the full principal
adaptation aid models of the selection stage (above) and the
allocation stage (below), including 95% confidence intervals 151
Fig. 7.1 All substantive effects for the full model for both adaptation
aid allocation stages. (a) Selection stage. (b) Allocation stage 206
LIST OF TABLES
xv
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
Open the newspaper on any given day and you will likely find reports on
devastating weather extremes somewhere on the globe. For instance, in late
September/early October 2016, hurricane Matthew made headlines. In
Haïti, it left more than 500 people dead, tens of thousands homeless, and
hundreds of thousands in need of food assistance (OCHA 2016). Economic
damage across the hurricane’s path through Haïti, Cuba, the Bahamas,
and the USA’s south-eastern coast is estimated at over $8 billion (AIR
Worldwide 2016). In March 2015, tropical cyclone Pam in the Pacific left
the island state of Vanuatu in ruins. While the death toll was thankfully
much lower than in Haïti, with 16 killed, over half of the population was
affected and much of the country’s infrastructure destroyed. Estimated
economic damage reached $450 million—equivalent to 64% of Vanuatu’s
gross domestic product (GDP) (Esler 2015). We could list more extreme
weather events, such as floods and droughts, as well as slow-onset processes
that are less likely to make headlines but are potentially just as devastating,
such as ocean acidification, coral bleaching, or coastal erosion as a result of
sea-level rise.1
The list of climate change impacts is long. While it is impossible
to attribute any single event to global climate change, climate change
does increase the frequency and intensity of weather extremes as well as
contributes to changes like coastal erosion and flooding (IPCC 2014).
Devastating disasters like the ones listed above are likely the ‘new normal’,
a glimpse into ‘a climate future that is less predictable and more extreme’
(Byanyima et al. 2016). Coping with and adapting to this climate future is
becoming more and more important and urgent around the globe—and
nowhere more so than in the countries of the Global South. Developing
countries not only feel the brunt of climate change impacts, as the weather
extremes mentioned earlier illustrate, they also have fewer resources and
less capacity to cope with and adapt to these adverse effects—and they
have at the same time historically contributed the least to anthropogenic
climate change (Mertz et al. 2009).
In light of this ‘double injustice’ of climate change, developed countries
have a moral as well as a legal obligation to help vulnerable develop-
ing countries adapt. The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (the Convention, or UNFCCC) requires developed
countries to assist financially particularly vulnerable developing countries;
more recent agreements, including the 2016 Paris Agreement, confirm this
obligation and specifically call on developed countries to increase the level
of financial assistance for adaptation (see Chap. 2 for a detailed overview).
This is what this book is about: financial support for adaptation to
climate change from developed countries to developing countries. More
specifically, we focus on bilateral official development assistance (ODA)
that targets climate change adaptation in recipient countries—what we call
adaptation aid. As we explain in greater detail below, bilateral adaptation
aid is an important subset of adaptation finance and includes: support for
projects such as building seawalls and (re-)planting mangroves; building
or enhancing rainwater tanks; developing maps of safe areas in the case of
hurricanes and other storms (see Noble et al. 2014, 844ff).
Support for adaptation raises many questions. Which adaptation actions
are funded through international adaptation aid, and why? How effectively
and sustainably do these adaptation actions reduce recipients’ vulnerability
and increase their resilience? How much finance is needed and how much is
available for adaptation measures in developing countries? To what extent
are adaptation (aid) and development (aid) different, and how? How can
we measure and monitor adaptation finance flows? Where does this finance
come from, and where does it go (e.g. Peterson Carvalho and Terpstra
2015)? In this book, we examine this last issue of distribution at the
national level. Which countries receive how much support for adaptation,
and why? How do donors allocate their adaptation aid across recipient
countries? To what extent are the most vulnerable countries prioritised in
adaptation aid allocation, as developed countries agreed and as we would
expect from a climate justice perspective (cf. Barrett 2014)? We address
1.1 DEFINITION OF KEY CONCEPTS 3
grants or loans to countries and territories on the DAC List of ODA Recipients
(developing countries) and to multilateral agencies which are: (a) undertaken
by the official sector; (b) with promotion of economic development and
welfare as the main objective; (c) at concessional financial terms (OECD
2016).
donors only those developed countries that report their ODA to the OECD.
1.1.2 Vulnerability
The purpose of adaptation is to reduce vulnerability. Just like adaptation,
‘vulnerability’ is complex and contested and has been conceptualised in
different ways (Adger 2006; Füssel 2007; Muccione et al. 2017). Broadly
1.1 DEFINITION OF KEY CONCEPTS 5
vulnerability
+ + –
public and private investment in low carbon and climate resilient actions
globally since 2011 (Buchner et al. 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015).
According to their estimates, only a small but growing share of financial
flows went into adaptation activities. In 2011, only 4.5% of the flows
covered targeted adaptation (Buchner et al. 2011); in 2015, this figure
went up to 17% (Buchner et al. 2015). The UNFCCC Standing Committee
on Finance (2014, 2016) has produced two biennial assessment reports of
climate finance flows. These assessments estimate that about one-quarter of
all flows has been spent on adaptation activities across the 4 years assessed
(2011 through 2014). A joint report by the Climate Policy Initiative—
the authors of the Landscape of Climate Finance reports—and the OECD
sought to measure more precisely climate finance flows that count towards
the $100 billion target (OECD 2015). The report puts total climate finance
flows at $52 billion in 2013 and at $62 billion in 2014, of which 16%
targeted adaptation and 7% adaptation and mitigation. These last estimates,
however, were strongly criticised. The Indian government reassessed the
OECD numbers and concluded that only $2.2 billion in new and additional
resources had been disbursed, though the report does not specify how
much of this went into adaptation (Climate Change Finance Unit 2015).
Even if different studies come to different conclusions with regard to the
precise scale of climate and adaptation finance, they agree insofar as ‘none
finds that a sufficient amount is currently being mobilized to meet the
climate challenge’ (Ha et al. 2016, 2).
If we leave aside the question of what is new and additional and what
exactly counts as adaptation as opposed to development (see Chap. 2),
relatively reliable and comparable numbers are easier to find, in par-
ticular for public funding. Public sources of funding are more relevant
for adaptation than for mitigation, since there are fewer gains to be
made from investments in adaptation compared to for instance renewable
energy (Atteridge 2011). Developed countries provide almost all of their
funding for adaptation from aid budgets (e.g. Ayers and Abeysinghe 2013;
Weikmans 2016); only a small part of adaptation finance is specifically raised
for this purpose. The most prominent example here is the Adaptation
Fund, a multilateral fund established under the UNFCCC (see Chap. 2).
The Adaptation Fund is partly resourced through a levy on the so-called
Clean Development Mechanism, which allows developed countries to
reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by investing in mitigation activities
in developing countries.3
1.4 OVERVIEW OF THE BOOK AND CONTRIBUTIONS 11
on adaptation aid from three large climate donors: Germany, Sweden, and
the UK. We seek to understand how donors distribute their adaptation aid
across recipient countries.
We have already laid out the broad background of our analysis: the
growing need for adaptation in developing countries to reduce vulnerabil-
ity to climate change and variability, and the obligation and commitment of
developed countries to assist developing countries in their efforts to deal
with the effects of climate change. In the next chapter, we will deepen
this background. We first show how adaptation has risen on the agenda of
the UNFCCC negotiations. While adaptation was for a long time the ‘little
brother’ of mitigation, adaptation and adaptation finance have become
more and more important over the course of the climate negotiations. The
2015 Paris Agreement includes a global adaptation goal and recognises
adaptation as equally important as mitigation.
The second half of Chap. 2 then reviews the literature on aid allocation.
Scholars distinguish between three major determinants of aid allocation:
recipient need, recipient merit, and donor interests. According to the
recipient need model, donors altruistically give their aid to the poorest
countries that most need support to develop. According to the recipient
merit model, donors reward countries with good governance and the
‘right’ policies, where aid also tends to be more effective. According to the
donor interest models, donors use aid to promote their own economic and
political interests. These determinants likely also play a role when donors
distribute their aid for climate change adaptation. A number of studies
have empirically examined the distribution of adaptation aid and mostly
confirmed the empirical results of the broader development aid literature:
donors have different motivations when allocating their aid, with donor
interests often dominating.
We empirically assess the three determinants of aid allocation in the
context of climate change adaptation. Chapter 3 lays out our research
design, data, and methods of analysis. We opted for a mixed methods
research design that combines quantitative analyses of OECD aid data
with qualitative case studies of Germany, Sweden, and the UK based on
semi-structured interviews and policy documents. As Chap. 3 explains,
this research design allows us to trace adaptation aid from 2010 through
2015 across the developing world, as well as to look ‘behind the numbers’
and to understand better how aid allocation decisions are made and what
role climate change and adaptation play in development cooperation in
these three countries. The qualitative analysis also helps overcome inherent
1.4 OVERVIEW OF THE BOOK AND CONTRIBUTIONS 13
Jos itse teet syntiä ja olet murheissasi aina kuolemaan asti tai jos
murehdit odottamatonta syntiäsi, niin riemuitse toisen puolesta,
riemuitse nuhteettoman puolesta, riemuitse siitä, että jos sinä olet
tehnyt syntiä, niin hän sen sijaan on hurskas eikä ole tehnyt syntiä.
*****
KOLMAS OSA
Seitsemäs kirja
Aljoša
1.
Ruumiin haju
Pappismunkki isä Zosima vainajan ruumis valmisteltiin kuntoon
haudattavaksi säädettyjen menojen mukaisesti. Kuten tunnettua ei
kuolleita munkkeja ja lihansakiduttajia pestä. »Kun joku munkeista
menee Jumalan tykö (sanotaan Suuressa Kirkkokäsikirjassa), niin
asianomainen munkki (t.s. tämän toimekseen saanut) pyyhkii hänen
ruumiinsa lämpimällä vedellä, tehtyään sitä ennen sienellä (s.o.
pesusienellä) ristin vainajan otsalle, rintaan, käsiin, jalkoihin ja
polviin, mutta ei mitään muuta.» Kaiken tämä tekikin vainajalle itse
isä Paísi. Pyyhkimisen jälkeen hän puki hänet munkin pukuun ja
kääri hänen ympärilleen viitan, jota varten hän säännön mukaisesti
jonkin verran leikkasi viittaa halki saadakseen sen kiedotuksi ristin
muotoon. Kuolleen päähän hän pani päähineen, jossa oli
kahdeksankärkinen risti. Päähine oli jätetty avoimeksi, mutta
vainajan kasvot peitettiin mustalla ehtoolliskalkkiliinalla. Hänen
käsiinsä pantiin Vapahtajan kuva. Tässä asussa hänet asetettiin
ruumisarkkuun (joka oli varattu jo paljon aikaisemmin). Arkku aiottiin
jättää kammioon (etumaiseen isoon huoneeseen, samaan, jossa
luostarinvanhin-vainaja oli ottanut vastaan veljeskunnan jäseniä ja
maallikoita) koko päiväksi. Koska vainaja oli arvoltaan pappismunkki,
niin hänen ruumiinsa ääressä oli pappismunkkien ja pappisdiakonien
luettava evankeliumia eikä psalttaria. Lukemisen aloitti heti
kuolinmessun jälkeen isä Josef; isä Paísi taas, joka oli itse tahtonut
sen jälkeen lukea koko päivän ja koko yön, oli vielä toistaiseksi kiinni
monissa puuhissa ja huolissa yhdessä erakkomajaston esimiehen
kanssa, sillä äkkiä oli alkanut tulla näkyviin, ja tuli sitä enemmän kuta
pitemmälle päivä kului, sekä veljeskunnan että luostarin majataloista
ja kaupungista suurin joukoin saapuneitten maallikkojen
keskuudessa jotakin tavatonta, ennenkuulumatonta ja
»sopimatontakin» kuohuntaa ja kärsimätöntä odotusta. Sekä esimies
että isä Paísi tekivät voitavansa rauhoittaakseen mikäli mahdollista
noita turhan tähden kiihtyneitä. Kun päivä jo oli valjennut, niin
kaupungista alkoi saapua muutamia sellaisiakin, jotka olivat ottaneet
mukaansa sairaita, varsinkin lapsia, — aivan kuin olisivat sitä varten
odottaneet nimenomaan tätä hetkeä, nähtävästi luottaen heti
vaikuttavaan parantavaan voimaan, joka, kuten he uskoivat, aivan
kohta oli ilmenevä. Ja nyt vasta kävi selville, miten suuressa määrin
meillä kaikki olivat tottuneet pitämään luostarinvanhin-vainajaa jo
hänen eläessään ehdottomasti suurena pyhimyksensä. Eikä tulijain
joukossa ollut ainoastaan rahvasta. Tämä uskovaisten suuri odotus,
joka oli niin nopeasti ja avoimesti saanut ilmaisunsa, vieläpä
kärsimättömässä ja miltei vaativassa muodossa, oli isä Paísin
mielestä selvää pahennusta, ja vaikka hän oli sitä jo kauan sitten
aavistanut, niin se oli suurempi kuin hän oli odottanut. Kohdatessaan
kiihtymyksen valtaan joutuneita munkkeja isä Paísi alkoi suorastaan
nuhdella heitä: »Jonkin suuren asian odottaminen tuolla tavoin ja
näin heti», puhui hän, »on kevytmielisyyttä, jommoinen on
mahdollinen vain maailmanlasten keskuudessa, mutta ei sovi
meille». Mutta hänen puhettaan ei sanottavasti otettu huomioon, ja
isä Paísi huomasi tämän levottomuudekseen, siitä huolimatta, että
hän itsekin (mainitaksemme kaikki totuudenmukaisesti), vaikka
häntä huolestuttivatkin liian kärsimättömät odotukset ja hän piti niitä
kevytmielisyytenä ja turhuutena, salaa sisimmässään odotti melkein
samaa, mitä nuo kiihtyneetkin, eikä voinut olla sitä itselleen
tunnustamatta. Kuitenkin eräät kohtaamiset olivat hänestä erittäin
epämiellyttäviä ja herättivät hänessä, jonkinmoisen aavistuksen
vaikutuksesta, suuria epäilyksiä. Vainajan kammiossa tungeksivassa
joukossa hän näki, tuntien henkistä inhoa (josta hän samassa
soimasi itseään), esimerkiksi Rakitinin tai kaukaa saapuneen
obdorskilaisen vieraan, munkin, joka yhä viipyi luostarissa, ja heitä
kumpaakin isä Paísi äkkiä jostakin syystä alkoi pitää epäilyttävinä, —
vaikka he eivät olleet ainoat, jotka olisi voinut tässä mielessä panna
merkille. Kaikista kiihtymyksen tilassa olevista touhusi obdorskilainen
munkki kaikkein enimmän; hänet saattoi nähdä kaikkialla ja joka
paikassa: kaikkialla hän kyseli, kaikkialla kuunteli toisten puheita,
kaikkialla kuiskutteli omituisen salaperäisen näköisenä. Hänen
kasvojensa ilme oli mitä kärsimättömin ja ikäänkuin ärtynyt. Mitä taas
Rakitiniin tulee, niin tämä oli, kuten myöhemmin kävi selville,
ilmestynyt niin aikaisin erakkomajaan rouva Hohlakovin erityiselle
asialle. Heti kun tämä hyväntahtoinen, mutta löperöluonteinen
nainen, jota itseään ei voitu päästää erakkomajaan, oli herännyt ja
saanut kuulla vainajasta, hänet äkkiä valtasi niin kiihkeä uteliaisuus,
että hän paikalla toimitti sijastaan erakkomajaan Rakitinin, jotta tämä
pitäisi silmällä kaikkea ja heti ilmoittaisi hänelle kirjeellisesti,
esimerkiksi aina puolen tunnin kuluttua, kaikesta mitä tapahtuu.
Rakitinia hän piti hyvin hurskaana ja uskovaisena nuorukaisena, —
siinä määrin osasi tämä asettua sopivaan suhteeseen jokaiseen ja
esiintyä jokaiselle mieluisassa valossa, jos vain katsoi siitä olevan
vähänkin etua itselleen. Päivä oli kirkas ja valoisa, ja saapuneista
rukoilijoista olivat monet erakkomajaston hautojen luona, joita oli
tiheämmässä kirkon ympärillä, mutta siellä täällä muuallakin koko
alueella. Kulkiessaan erakkomajoissa isä Paísi äkkiä muisti Aljošan
ja ettei ollut nähnyt tätä pitkään aikaan, ei sen koommin kuin yöllä.
Mutta juuri kun hän oli muistanut Aljošan, hän näkikin hänet alueen
kaukaisimmassa nurkassa aidan luona istumassa erään jo kauan
sitten kuolleen sankariteoistaan kuulun munkin hautakivellä. Hän
istui selin erakkomajaan, kasvot aitaan päin ja ikäänkuin piilossa
muistomerkin takana. Isä Paísi astui hänen luokseen ja näki, että
hän kasvot käsiin peitettyinä äänettömästi mutta katkerasti itki ja että
koko hänen ruumiinsa värisi nyyhkytyksistä. Isä Paísi seisoi jonkin
aikaa hänen luonaan.
— Riittää, rakas poikani, riittää, ystävä, — lausui hän viimein
tunteikkaasti, — mitä sinä nyt? Riemuitse, äläkä itke. Vai etkö tiedä,
että tämä päivä on suurin hänen päivistään? Missä hän on nyt, tällä
hetkellä, muistapa vain sitä!