International Symposium for Intelligent

Transportation and Smart City ITASC

2017 Proceedings Branch of ISADS The
International Symposium on
Autonomous Decentralized Systems
1st Edition Xiaoqing Zeng
Visit to download the full and correct content document:
https://textbookfull.com/product/international-symposium-for-intelligent-transportation-
and-smart-city-itasc-2017-proceedings-branch-of-isads-the-international-symposium-
on-autonomous-decentralized-systems-1st-edition-xiaoqing-zeng/
More products digital (pdf, epub, mobi) instant
download maybe you interests ...

Foundations of Intelligent Systems 23rd International

Symposium ISMIS 2017 Warsaw Poland June 26 29 2017
Proceedings 1st Edition Marzena Kryszkiewicz

https://textbookfull.com/product/foundations-of-intelligent-
systems-23rd-international-symposium-ismis-2017-warsaw-poland-
june-26-29-2017-proceedings-1st-edition-marzena-kryszkiewicz/

Advancements in Smart City and Intelligent Building

Proceedings of the International Conference on Smart
City and Intelligent Building ICSCIB 2018 Qiansheng
Fang
https://textbookfull.com/product/advancements-in-smart-city-and-
intelligent-building-proceedings-of-the-international-conference-
on-smart-city-and-intelligent-building-icscib-2018-qiansheng-
fang/

Advances in Intelligent Data Analysis XVI 16th

International Symposium IDA 2017 London UK October 26
28 2017 Proceedings 1st Edition Niall Adams

https://textbookfull.com/product/advances-in-intelligent-data-
analysis-xvi-16th-international-symposium-ida-2017-london-uk-
october-26-28-2017-proceedings-1st-edition-niall-adams/

Proceedings of 3rd International Sustainable Buildings

Symposium ISBS 2017 Volume 2 Seyhan F■rat

https://textbookfull.com/product/proceedings-of-3rd-
international-sustainable-buildings-symposium-
isbs-2017-volume-2-seyhan-firat/
Foundations of Intelligent Systems 24th International
Symposium ISMIS 2018 Limassol Cyprus October 29 31 2018
Proceedings Michelangelo Ceci

https://textbookfull.com/product/foundations-of-intelligent-
systems-24th-international-symposium-ismis-2018-limassol-cyprus-
october-29-31-2018-proceedings-michelangelo-ceci/

Foundations of Intelligent Systems 25th International

Symposium ISMIS 2020 Graz Austria September 23 25 2020
Proceedings Denis Helic

https://textbookfull.com/product/foundations-of-intelligent-
systems-25th-international-symposium-ismis-2020-graz-austria-
september-23-25-2020-proceedings-denis-helic/

Information Sciences and Systems 2014 Proceedings of

the 29th International Symposium on Computer and
Information Sciences 1st Edition Tadeusz Czachórski

https://textbookfull.com/product/information-sciences-and-
systems-2014-proceedings-of-the-29th-international-symposium-on-
computer-and-information-sciences-1st-edition-tadeusz-czachorski/

Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on

Biological Control of Arthropods 1st Edition Peter
Mason

https://textbookfull.com/product/proceedings-of-the-5th-
international-symposium-on-biological-control-of-arthropods-1st-
edition-peter-mason/

Computational Intelligence and Intelligent Systems 9th

International Symposium ISICA 2017 Guangzhou China
November 18 19 2017 Revised Selected Papers Part II
Kangshun Li
https://textbookfull.com/product/computational-intelligence-and-
intelligent-systems-9th-international-symposium-
isica-2017-guangzhou-china-november-18-19-2017-revised-selected-
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 62

Xiaoqing Zeng
Xiongyao Xie
Jian Sun
Limin Ma
Yinong Chen Editors

International Symposium for

Intelligent Transportation
and Smart City (ITASC) 2017
Proceedings
Branch of ISADS (The International Symposium
on Autonomous Decentralized Systems)

123
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies

Volume 62

Series editors
Robert James Howlett, KES International, Shoreham-by-sea, UK
e-mail: rjhowlett@kesinternational.org

Lakhmi C. Jain, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australia;

Bournemouth University, UK;
KES International, UK
e-mails: jainlc2002@yahoo.co.uk; Lakhmi.Jain@canberra.edu.au
About this Series

The Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies book series encompasses the
topics of knowledge, intelligence, innovation and sustainability. The aim of the
series is to make available a platform for the publication of books on all aspects of
single and multi-disciplinary research on these themes in order to make the latest
results available in a readily-accessible form. Volumes on interdisciplinary research
combining two or more of these areas is particularly sought.
The series covers systems and paradigms that employ knowledge and
intelligence in a broad sense. Its scope is systems having embedded knowledge
and intelligence, which may be applied to the solution of world problems in
industry, the environment and the community. It also focusses on the
knowledge-transfer methodologies and innovation strategies employed to make
this happen effectively. The combination of intelligent systems tools and a broad
range of applications introduces a need for a synergy of disciplines from science,
technology, business and the humanities. The series will include conference
proceedings, edited collections, monographs, handbooks, reference books, and
other relevant types of book in areas of science and technology where smart
systems and technologies can offer innovative solutions.
High quality content is an essential feature for all book proposals accepted for the
series. It is expected that editors of all accepted volumes will ensure that
contributions are subjected to an appropriate level of reviewing process and adhere
to KES quality principles.

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/8767

Xiaoqing Zeng Xiongyao Xie
•

Jian Sun Limin Ma Yinong Chen

• •

Editors

International Symposium for

Intelligent Transportation
and Smart City (ITASC) 2017
Proceedings
Branch of ISADS (The International Symposium
on Autonomous Decentralized Systems)

123
Editors
Xiaoqing Zeng Limin Ma
Tongji University School of Environmental Science
Shanghai, Shanghai and Engineering
China Tongji University
Shanghai, Shanghai
Xiongyao Xie China
Department of Geotechnical Engineering
Tongji University Yinong Chen
Shanghai, Shanghai Department of Computer Science
China and Engineering
Arizona State University
Jian Sun Tempe, AZ
Shanghai Jiao Tong University USA
Shanghai, Shanghai
China

ISSN 2190-3018 ISSN 2190-3026 (electronic)

Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies
ISBN 978-981-10-3574-6 ISBN 978-981-10-3575-3 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-3575-3
Library of Congress Control Number: 2017935846

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2017

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part
of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission
or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar
methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from
the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the
authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or
for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to
jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Printed on acid-free paper

This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature

The registered company is Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721,
Singapore
Preface

The conference of ITASC (International Symposium on Intelligent Transportation

and Smart City) was originated from idea of Intelligent Transportations and
Information Technology. The 1st ITASC conference started as branch of the
International Symposium on Autonomous Decentralized System (ISADS) was held
in March 2013 in Mexico City. In the inauguration event, researchers and practi-
tioners from China, Japan, USA, Mexico, and other countries shared in research,
technologies, and experience in metro construction and maintenance. Main tech-
nologies discussed in that conference have been built and operated in rail transit in
China and Japan. The 2nd ITASC was successfully held in May of 2015 in
Shanghai. Over 40 specialists, researchers, and practitioners presented latest work
in the conference, including academicians from China and Austria, chief technol-
ogy officer from central bank of Mexico, and authoritative entrepreneurs. More than
300 people from about 50 universities and corporations attended the conference.
ITASC 2017 carries on the success of the previous two meetings and is held in
May 19–21 in Shanghai. The symposium focuses on green transportation and urban
utility and offers a forum for researchers, practitioner, and entrepreneurs to discuss
the latest research and developments in transportation, civil engineering, informa-
tion technology, and environment engineering. The topics of the symposium
include the theoretical foundation, modern technologies and their applications in
intelligent transportation and smart city, aiming at building a harmony for our city
life. During the symposium, we focus on discussing how to deploy new techniques
and products into transportation, municipal construction, and information control-
ling, and thus, promote the progress of these related science and technology.
In this proceeding, we chose 31 articles from more than 60 submitted articles,
which cover several professional fields, such as transportation and civil engineering,
IT, environmental science, and quite a few of these articles chose a specific
prospective to describe the new ideas of crossing different professional fields, which
gave readers great inspiration of solving problems. As the prosperous development
of technologies combined with IT growing in China, there are urgent needs and
huge application prospects to keep more and more attention on the intelligent

v
vi Preface

transportation and smart city, which has already been successfully implemented in
some developed areas.
Like the former ITASC symposiums, we again invited the top scholars from all
over the world, including specialists of universities, entrepreneurs, and even the
governments, to share their wonderful discoveries and experiences, and 200–300
people may attend the symposium in estimation. We hope all those who are
interested in improving our urban living qualities could attend ITASC 2017 to
communicate with us, and give our sincere thanks to all sponsors, press, print, and
electronic media for their excellent coverage of this conference.

Shanghai Xiaoqing Zeng

Contents

Combined PCA and NB to Predict Traffic Incident Duration . . . . . . . . . 1

Yechun Lao, Shuyan Chen, and Ningning Song
Improve the Urban Basic Construction of Facilities and Guarantee the
Urban Traffic Flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Jianyong Fei
Speed Control of Pure Electric Vehicle Based on Adaptive Fuzzy PID
Controller . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Linghui Xu, Jia Lu, and Jian Zhang
Designing a Dynamic Control Platform of Electric Bus Vehicles . . . . . . 27
Gang Zhong, Tingting Yin, Jian Zhang, and Linchao Li
Research on Modern Tram Auxiliary Safety Protection Technology
Based on Obstacles Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Gang Wang, Xiaoqing Zeng, Dong Bian, and Weiyang Wang
Research on the Queue Length Prediction Model
with Consideration for Stochastic Fluid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Xiaoqing Zeng, Jifei Zhan, Linxiang Yang, Qipeng Xiong, and Yujia Chen
Research on the Model of Traffic Signal Control and Signal
Coordinated Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Xiaoqing Zeng, Chaoyang Wu, Yujia Chen, Qipeng Xiong, and Cong Wei
Research on the Behavior of Routes Choice Under the Information
Availability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
Xiaofang Shan, Zheng Wang, and Yingchang Zho
Research on Lateral Stability of Double Semitrailer Road Train . . . . . . 83
Hao Zhang, Ze-kai Ren, Hong-wei Zhang, and Chuan-jin Ou
Research on Lateral Stability of Center Axle Trailer Train . . . . . . . . . . 90
Hao Zhang, Ze-kai Ren, and Hong-wei Zhang

vii
viii Contents

Research on Road Adaptability of Center Axle Trailer Train . . . . . . . . . 97

Hao Zhang, Ze-kai Ren, Hong-wei Zhang, and Chao-zhi Huang
Nonlinear Modeling and Analyzing of Tractor-Semitrailer Driving
Stability Based on Simulink . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
Chuan-jin Ou, Hong-wei Zhang, and Hao Zhang
Optimal Location of Charging Station of Electric Bus in Battery
Replacement Mode . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Yi Xiang and Yong Zhang
Design and Development of Earthquake Emergency Rescue
Command System Based on GIS and GPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
Yujia Chen, Xiaoqing Zeng, and Tengfei Yuan
Analysis on the Role of Transport Equipment Standardization in the
Development of Multimodal Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
Xue-li Zhang, Chen Li, Chao-zhi Huang, and Yi Xu
Analysis of Urban Resident Bus Travel Decision with Physical
Expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Tengfei Yuan, Xiaoqing Zeng, and Yujia Chen
Research on Optimal Control Strategy of Coupler Force in Urban Rail
Transit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Feiyao Jing, Gang Xu, Ying Xu, Jianhao Shen, Cheng Chi, and Yuan Liu
Effect of Brake Chamber Pressure Area on Dynamic and Static
Braking Performance of Articulated Train . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
Jin-song Dong, Hong-wei Zhang, Hai-yan Ji, Cheng-qiang Zong,
and Jia-qi Yang
Standardization and Development of Road Freight
Transport Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
Jinsong Dong, Hongwei Zhang, Zekai Ren, and Chengqiang Zong
Driver’s License and Some Personal Factors on the Visual Impact
of Hazard Identification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200
Jian Sun, Jing-Shuai Yang, Dong Wang, Zhi-Zheng Ma, and Peng-Zi Chu
The Research of Design Technology and Application on Permeable
Sidewalk: A Technical Summary of Sponge City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208
Hong Li, Yanfeng Bai, and Ling Zhang
Digitalization and Application Research of BIM-Based Power Plants
Lifecycle Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
Ling Su
Contents ix

Review on the Legal System of Unban Underground

Space in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
Yingjuan Qiao
Multi-Field Depth Vehicle Headlight Detection by Model Construction
and Long Trajectory Extraction in Nighttime City Traffic . . . . . . . . . . . 234
Chunming Tang, Yancheng Dong, Xiangqing Lin, and Wenna Xiao
A Game Theoretical Based QoS-Aware Routing Mechanism with
IEEE802.16 Mesh Networks in ITS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247
Jun Yu and Wei Zhang
Study on Durability of Railway Subgrade Structure Based on Indoor
Sand-Blown Model Experiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258
Hongdi Zhang
“Four-A-Services” Oriented Evaluated System of Intelligent City . . . . . 269
Zhijie Li and Wei Zhang
Overview of Non-contact Pantograph-Catenary Arc Detection Based
on Image Processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279
Shize Huang, Fan Zhang, Liangliang Yu, and Meiyu Pan
Research on the Arc Image Recognition Based on the Pantograph
Videos of High-Speed Electric Multiple Unit (EMU) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290
Liangliang Yu, Shize Huang, Fan Zhang, and Guanhua Li
 Combined PCA and NB to Predict Traffic
Incident Duration

Yechun Lao, Shuyan Chen ✉ , and Ningning Song

( )

School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

{220142555,chenshuyan,220142528}@seu.edu.cn

Abstract. An accurate prediction of incident duration plays an important role in

obtaining traffic information for travelers timely and making appropriate deci‐
sions for traffic managers. As the characteristics are significantly different from
each other, models were established for each type of incident, i.e. stopped-vehicle
incidents, lost-load incidents and accidents. After data pretreatment, Principal
component analysis (PCA) was carried out for each type of incident. Afterward,
Naive Bayes (NB) model was applied for the data processed after PCA to predict
incident durations. The experimental results indicated that the model obtained
high prediction accuracy for those incidents which lasted less than 60 min and
the prediction performance of accidents worked best. Besides, the prediction
accuracy was 77.46%, 82.08% and 86.34% for each type of incident within 20 min’
error, respectively. In conclusion, the results showed that the combined model of
PCA and NB is a promising application to predict incident duration.

Keywords: Incident duration · Prediction · Data pretreatment · Principal

component analysis · Naive Bayes

1 Introduction

Traffic incident which is one of the major causes leading to non-recurring congestion,
refers to the event that cause temporary reduction in traffic capacity, such as accident,
breakdown, weather and construction. Both the traffic control measures to be taken as
well as the information to be given to drivers depend on how long incidents are expected
to influence traffic [1].
As a result of the difference of the data that researchers used, various methodologies
have been employed to build models for incident duration forecast, which mainly include
two aspects: one is the construction of the probability distribution of incident duration;
the other is the analysis of the impact of external factors on incident duration. The former
regards incident duration as a random variable, which satisfies a certain probability
density function, such as: lognormal distribution [2], log-logistic distribution [3] and
weibull distribution [4]. The latter can be divided into two categories: one is the param‐
eter model and the other is semi-parametric or non-parametric model. The parameter
model quantifies the relationship between incident duration and its influence factors,
including the regression analysis and risk analysis, like log-based regression model [5],

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2017

X. Zeng et al. (eds.), International Symposium for Intelligent Transportation
and Smart City (ITASC) 2017 Proceedings, Smart Innovation,
Systems and Technologies 62, DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-3575-3_1
2 Y. Lao et al.

Support Vector Regression model [6], Partial Least Squares Regression model [7],
hazard-based duration model [3] and competing risks mixture model [8]. The semi-
parametric or non-parametric model mainly contains Decision Tree [9], Classification
Tree [10], Fuzzy Logic Theory [11], Bayesian Neural Networks [12], Bayesian Decision
Tree [13], Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Machine [14].
Although a lot of methods have been proposed to predict incident duration, there
remains some deficiencies among the existing methods. On the one hand, some algo‐
rithms are complicated and take a lot of time to train, e.g. ANN and decision trees. On
the other hand, the prediction accuracy of them is not satisfied, and there is a great room
for improvement. In addition, some methods only pay attention to the relationship
between dependent variables and independent variables, whereas ignoring the relation‐
ship between different independent variables.
Naive Bayes model based on principal component analysis is a good way to build
the relationship between dependent variables and independent variables, simultaneously
considering the complex internal relationship among these factors. It not only has a
simple structure and needs less complicated calculation, which makes it won’t take long
time to train, but also results in preferable prediction accuracy.

2 The Combined Model of PCA and NB

Define {X1, L, Xn, C} is the attribute set of the sample space E, among them: Xi(i = 1,
L, m) is a continuous attribute, Xj(j = m + 1, L, n) is a discrete attribute, C is a class
attribute. Their values are represented by the corresponding lower case letters of them.
Sx is the covariance matrix for all samples of continuous attribute set {X1, L, Xm}. P(·)
represents a discrete probability value, p(·) represents the value of probability density
function.
Assume the m eigenvalues and corresponding eigenvectors of Sx respectively as λ1,
L, λm and u1, L, um, where the eigenvector u1 is a column vector ui = (ui1 , L, uim )T. For
the orthogonal matrix U = (u1 , L, um )T, set new attribute sets as
YT = (Y1 , L, YM )T = UXT. According to the definition of Jacobi determinant, we have:
|J| = |U| = 1. In this way, we get the relationship of combined probability density distri‐
bution functions between Y and X, as follows:

p(x1 , L, xm )
p(y1 , L, ym ) = = p(x1 , L, xm ) (1)
|J|

Suppose ∇X to be any subset of {Xm+1, L, Xn, C}. As there is no relationship between

the fitting condition of YT = UXT and the value of ∇X, correspondingly we get:

p(x1 , L, xm |∇x)
p(y1 , L, ym |∇x) = = p(x1 , L, xm |∇x) (2)
|J|

The following describes how to handle the situation that both continuous variables
and discrete variables exist in sample space, combining Eq. (2). For the sake of clarity,
 Combined PCA and NB to Predict Traffic Incident Duration 3

we firstly take into account a case of two attributes and set as X1 (continuous variable)
and X2 (discrete variable) respectively. Suppose to discretize the range of X1 as several
sub-interval of continuous values, with each interval corresponding to a discrete value.
[ ]
For any interval x1 , x1 + Δ , we can obtain the following based on Bayes’ theorem:

P( x1 ≤ X1 ≤ x1 + Δ||x2 , c)P(x2 , c)
P( c|x1 ≤ X1 ≤ x1 + Δ, x2 ) = (3)
P( x1 ≤ X1 ≤ x1 + Δ||x2 )P(x2 )

On the basis of Mean-value Theorem:

{
P( x1 ≤ X1 ≤ x1 + Δ||x2 , c) = P( ξ|x2 , c)Δ
P( x1 ≤ X1 ≤ x1 + Δ||x2 ) = P( η|x2 )Δ

Where: p( ξ|x2 , c) and p( η|x2 ), respectively, are the corresponding median of proba‐
[ ]
bility density function for the interval x1 , x1 + Δ . So the Eq. (3) can be transformed as:

P( ξ|x2 , c)ΔP(x2 , c) P( ξ|x2 , c)P(x2 , c)

P( c|x1 ≤ X1 ≤ x1 + Δ, x2 ) = = (4)
P( η|x2 )ΔP(x2 ) P( η|x2 )P(x2 )

As Δ → 0, P( c|x1 ≤ X1 ≤ x1 + Δ, x2 ) → P( c|x1 , x2 ) and ξ, η → x1, consequently we

gain:

P( x1 ||x2 , c)P(x2 , c)
lim P( c|x1 ≤ X1 ≤ x1 + Δ, x2 ) = P( c|x1 , x2 ) = (5)
Δ→0 P( x1 ||x2 )P(x2 )

Extend the above results to high dimension attribute space and set
ΔX = (Xm+1 , Λ, Xn ), then:

P( x1 , Λ, xm ||Δx, c)P(Δx, c)
P( c|x1 , Λ, xm , Δx) = (6)
P( x1 , Λ, xm ||Δx)P(Δx)
{ }
With regard to the attribute set Y1 , Λ, Ym , Xm + 1 , Λ, Xn , C , the following equation
is established:

P( y1 , Λ, ym ||Δx, c)P(Δx, c)
P( c|y1 , Λ, ym , Δx) = (7)
P( y1 , Λ, ym ||Δx)P(Δx)

With a comparison between Eqs. (6) and (7), combining with Eq. (2), it can be
inferred that: P( c|x1 , Λ, xn ) = P( c|y1 , Λ, ym , xm+1 , Λ, xn ). After linear transformation,
multivariate Gaussian vectors still submit to Multivariate Gaussian distribution. In addi‐
tion, the irrelevance of Gaussian distribution is equivalent to independence. Therefore,
if X1 , Λ, Xn obey Multivariate Gaussian distribution, so it is with Y1 , Λ, Ym and the vari‐
ables are independent of each other.
4 Y. Lao et al.

{ }
On the premise of non-destructive information, the original feature set X1 , Λ, Xn
{ }
is mapped to Y1 , Λ, Ym , Xm+1 , Λ, Xn , through orthogonal rotation transform. And the
new attributes have a certain degree of independence. Thus, the sample distribution is
approximate to the conditional independence assumption of Naive Bayes, which
provides a favorable condition for the application of Bayesian Theory.
In Bayesian theory, the posterior probability is used as the classification index, which
means the category with the maximum conditional probability output will be marked as
a target value.

c∗ = arg max P( c|x1 , L, xn ) = arg max P( c|y1 , L, ym , xm+1 , L, xn ) (8)

c∈C c∈C
{ }
Assume that the variance matrix of Y = Y1 , L, Ym is a diagonal matrix, with
λ1 , L, λm as its major diagonal elements. The corresponding variance of each component
for Y reflects the information contained in the original index and it’s measured by
variance contribution rate:

λj
Δλj = (1 ≤ j ≤ m)
∑m
λj
i=1

According to the variance contribution rate in descending order, rearrange the attrib‐
utes. Generally, when the cumulative variance contribution rate is more than 85%, the
corresponding attributes can represent most of the information offered by the original
variables, simultaneously eliminating the noise. Classically, supposing there are k
attributes (k principal components) meeting the requirements: Y1 , L, Yk, respectively.
Then Bayes decision rule changes into:

c∗ = arg max P( c|y1 , L, yk , xm+1 , L, xn ) (9)

c∈C

3 Data Description

The data set contains 1,853 entries of traffic incident data collected from May 1, 2005
to September 13, 2005 in Utrecht, a central city in the Netherlands [1]. In this data set,
incident duration is the time between the detection and the clearance of an incident on
the road. The parameter information of each item is presented in Table 1. There are three
basic types of traffic incidents: stopped vehicle, lost load and accident.
A preliminary statistical analysis for all incident data and each type of incident is
presented in Table 2, which shows that the parametric characteristics for each type of
incident have a great difference from each other. Therefore, we will model each type of
incident later.
 Combined PCA and NB to Predict Traffic Incident Duration 5

Table 1. Basic information of traffic incident parameters

Parameters Value
Time By the week weekday = 1 or weekend = 0
By the day peak hour = 1 or off peak hour = 0
Physical Incident type stopped vehicle/lost load/accident
Vehicle type truck = 1 and passenger car = 0
Number of vehicles 0/1/2/3 or more than 3
Only damage or casualties (Only for accident) casualties = 1
Damage to road equipment Yes = 1 or No = 0
Response Fire brigade required Yes = 1 or No = 0
Ambulance required Yes = 1 or No = 0
Tow truck required Yes = 1 or No = 0
Police force required Yes = 1 or No = 0
Track research required Yes = 1 or No = 0
Repair service required Yes = 1 or No = 0
Fluid to be cleaned required Yes = 1 or No = 0
Management Traffic control required Yes = 1 or No = 0
Road management required Yes = 1 or No = 0
Road inspector required Yes = 1 or No = 0

Table 2. Results of statistical analysis

Incident type Stopped-vehicle Lost-load Accident All
Entries number 571 379 903 1853
Mean (min) 43.73 26.64 42.74 39.75
Standard deviation 37.90 19.58 41.38 37.40
Minimum (min) 2 1 0 0
Lower quartile 19 14 23 20
Median (min) 31 23 33 30
Upper quartile 57 34 48 47
Maximum (min) 282 139 435 435
Skewness 2.14 2.20 5.32 4.43
Kurtosis 6.47 7.77 38.99 32.18

Besides, normal probability plots (95% confidence interval) for all incident data and
each type of incident are shown as Fig. 1, which indicates that the data does not obey
normal distribution.
6 Y. Lao et al.

Fig. 1. Normal probability plot: (a) stopped-vehicle; (b) lost-load; (c) accident; (d) all accident

To figure out the distribution of incident duration, log-normal distribution, log-

logistic distribution and weibull distribution are used to fit for all incident data and each
type of incident, respectively.
As shown in Table 3, p-value of log-normal distribution and log-logistic distribution
is smaller than 0.05, which means incident duration for all incident data and each type
of incident is subject to log-normal distribution or log-logistic distribution. Moreover,
the values of Anderson-Darling (AD) for log-logistic distribution is smaller than the
ones for log-normal distribution, that is, log-logistic distribution is more suitable for
incident duration of this data set. The fitting results of log-logistic distribution is
presented in Fig. 2, which indicates that the incident duration between 10 min and 60 min
have a great ratio. Some incidents that last from 90 min to 180 min have a great effect
on the large standard deviation.

Table 3. Fitting results of four distribution functions

Distribution Stopped vehicle Lost load Accident All
AD P AD P AD P AD P
Normal 31.043 <0.005 12.955 <0.005 87.956 <0.005 136.193 <0.005
Log-normal 0.456 >0.05 0.808 >0.05 4.313 >0.05 4.329 >0.05
Log-logistic 0.682 >0.05 0.481 >0.05 1.261 >0.05 0.766 >0.05
Weibull 3.682 <0.005 2.615 <0.005 35.221 <0.005 37.057 <0.005
 Combined PCA and NB to Predict Traffic Incident Duration 7

Fig. 2. Fitting results of log-logistic distribution: (a) stopped-vehicle; (b) lost-load; (c) accident;
(d) all accident

4 Experiments Study

Firstly, according to the Chebyshev theorem, we set the incidents of small probability
as outliers. We went through the detection of outliers based on Minitab. Secondly, on
the basis of SPSS, principal component analysis was carried out. Before that, KMO and
Bartlett’s test should be satisfied. Thirdly, Naive Bayes classifier was processed on
Weka, a free and open source software platform for data mining, to train and validate
the data. By referring to related literature, we chose five evaluation indexes: prediction
accuracy within 10 min’ error, prediction accuracy within 15 min’ error, prediction
accuracy within 20’ min error, prediction accuracy within 30’ min error and mean abso‐
lute error, respectively. The basic steps of the experiment are as follows,
(1) Data pretreatment. Considering incident duration obeys a log-logistic distribution
for each type of incident, at the 95% confidence level, we dropped the outliers on
Minitab, leaving 559, 346 and 886 instances for each type of incident, respectively.
(2) KMO and Bartlett’s test. Based on SPSS, P-values for each are small than 0.05,
that is variables are relevant to each other. Meanwhile, the values of KMO for each
type of incident are all more than 0.5, which means principal component analysis
is suitable. Among them, the value of KMO for accidents is more than 0.7.
8 Y. Lao et al.

(3) Determining the number of principal components. We chose the number of prin‐
cipal components of which the cumulative variance contribution rate is more than
85%.
(4) Establishing the equations for every principal component. Data in the component
matrix divided by the square root of corresponding eigenvalues gives out the corre‐
sponding coefficient to each index of the equations.
(5) Calculating the principal component scores. Bring the normalized data into the
equations of principal components, to gain the corresponding principal component
score for every instance.
(6) Applying discretization for continuous attributes. As the naive Bayesian toolbox
of Weka assumes that all the variables of the data set are discrete and finite variables,
first of all, the continuous variables are discretized. Incident durations were discre‐
tized as equal-width ones, at 5-min intervals.
(7) Dividing Data into the training set and the testing set. Every time, 25% instances
were selected to test the prediction accuracy of Naive Bayesian Model established
by the other 75% instances.
(8) Modelling based on Naive Bayes classifier by using the training set. For each type
of incident, apply Naive Bayes classifier to deal with data obtained from the prin‐
cipal component analysis.
(9) Predicting and evaluating on the testing set. According to the evaluation indexes,
sort out the predicting results.
Finally, we got three models for forecast. As summarized in Table 4 below, more
than half of the instances of lost-load and accident are predicted within 10 min’ error,
but the percentage for stopped vehicle is inferior. The combined model of PCA and NB
has a good performance, all exceeded 75%, on forecasting for each type of incident
within 20 min’ error. During the low and middle time periods (<30 min, 30–60 min),
the combined model of PCA and NB has reached a relatively high prediction accuracy,
of which there may be two reasons. In the first place, there was more instances during
that time period, comparing with high time period, which was benefit for better learning
of the data. In the second place, on the short time range, the error is relatively small,
consequently resulting in high prediction accuracy. Furthermore, prediction accuracy
within 15 min’ error for each type of incident approached 80% during low time period
(<30 min). Correspondingly, prediction accuracy of the instances among the long time
range is not high. The reason may be that with great randomness, incident duration is
related with many factors, thus large differences of data itself do exist. Moreover, it’s
acceptable with greater error for such instances. Last but not least, within the same error
range, prediction accuracy of accidents is the highest, compared with that of stopped
vehicle and lost-load incidents. It’s probably that the value of KMO for accidents is
0.775, the highest, which indicates that principal component analysis is ideal for
instances of accidents. In addition, among the three types, the instance of accidents is
the most, which is conducive to data mining.
 Combined PCA and NB to Predict Traffic Incident Duration 9

Table 4. Prediction results of the combination of PCA and NB model

Incident type Stopped-vehicle Lost-load Accident
Mean absolute error 0.1556 0.1783 0.1260
Prediction accuracy within 10 min’ error <30 min 55.09% 61.11% 65.99%
30–60 min 40.12% 46.39% 52.78%
>60 min 18.11% 46.67% 31.01%
Total 42.93% 56.36% 55.53%
Prediction accuracy within 15 min’ error <30 min 80.75% 79.49% 78.59%
30–60 min 68.86% 55.67% 70.83%
>60 min 33.07% 53.33% 56.59%
Total 67.44% 71.68% 72.23%
Prediction accuracy within 20 min’ error <30 min 88.68% 88.03% 90.43%
30–60 min 79.04% 70.10% 85.83%
>60 min 46.46% 66.67% 75.19%
Total 77.46% 82.08% 86.34%
Prediction accuracy within 30 min’ error <30 min 93.58% 93.59% 95.47%
30–60 min 89.82% 79.38% 94.17%
>60 min 67.72% 80.00% 88.37%
Total 88.19% 89.02% 93.91%

Jiyang et al. [13] built a model based on Bayesian Decision Method-Based Tree, and
she got a prediction accuracy of 79% for lost-load incident within 10 min’ error and 65%
for the accident within 20 min’ error. Compared with their results, ours within 20 min’
error is higher; while in the periods of short duration, our model’s performance is inferior
to theirs. Wu et al. [6] employed SVM to predict incident duration; Wang et al. [7] made
use of Partial Least Squares Regression. Within 10 min’ error, we got the best prediction
accuracy for accidents and lost-load incidents, compared with the researches of Wang
and Wu; within 15 min’ error, prediction accuracy for accidents of ours is better than
that of what Wu did; within 20 min’ error, as to the prediction accuracy for accidents
and stopped-vehicle incidents, ours is better than that of Wang’s research. When it turns
to mean absolute error, ours for stopped- vehicle incidents and accidents is lower,
compared with the research of Wang.
Compared to their prediction results, the model we built based on a combined model
of Principal Component Analysis and Naive Bayes made an improvement, especially
for accidents, thus making it an alternative way to predict duration.

5 Conclusions

In this paper, we established a combined model of Principal Component Analysis and

Naive Bayes to mine the potential relationship between incident duration and its influ‐
ential factors. The prediction accuracy within 20 min’ error for each type of incident is
77.46%, 82.08% and 86.34%, respectively. Compared with the previous research, the
prediction accuracy is acceptable. However, it must be pointed out that the prediction
10 Y. Lao et al.

performance of accidents is better than the others. We summarize the reasons as follow:
on one hand, the value of KMO for accidents is the highest, more than 0.7, indicating
PCA is ideal for accidents; on the other hand, instance of accidents is the most, contri‐
buting to fully learning of data. With a wide variety of influential factors, strong random,
it is of significance to improving data collection by replenishing data constantly and
gathering as many factors as possible. What’s more, prediction accuracy of incidents
over 60 min didn’t work well. There can be two chief causes. Firstly, sample imbalance,
large incident duration instances is less than the small and the middle ones. Secondly,
a large number of inconsistent records in the data set, that is, although some instances
have same attributes, their durations are significantly different from each other. Hence,
our further study will pay more attention to manipulating inconsistent records and
making use of appropriate sampling techniques. Meanwhile, we will make the effort on
more different methods to improve the predict performance of incident duration.

Acknowledgements. This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China
under Grant No. 61374195, the “Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities” and
the “Research and Innovation Project for College Graduates of Jiangsu Province”
No. SJLX15_0064.

References

1. Knibbe WJJ, Alkim TP, Otten JF, et al (2006) Automated estimation of incident duration on
Dutch highways. In: 2006 IEEE intelligent transportation systems conference. IEEE
2. Giuliano G (1989) Incident characteristics, frequency, and duration on a high volume urban
freeway. Transp Res Part A Gen 23(5):387–396
3. Lin L, Wang Q, Sadek AW (2016) A combined M5P tree and hazard-based duration model
for predicting urban freeway traffic accident durations. Accid Anal Prev 91:114–126
4. Nam D, Mannering F (2000) An exploratory hazard-based analysis of highway incident
duration. Transp Res Part A Policy Pract 34(2):85–102
5. Garib A, Radwan AE, Al-Deek H (1997) Estimating magnitude and duration of incident
delays. J Transp Eng 123(6):459–466
6. Wu WW, Chen S, Zheng C (2011) Traffic incident duration prediction based on support vector
regression. In: Proceedings of the ICCTP, pp 2412–2421
7. Wang X, Chen S, Zheng W (2013) Traffic incident duration prediction based on partial least
squares regression. Procedia-Soc Behav Sci 96:425–432
8. Li R, Pereira FC, Ben-Akiva ME (2015) Competing risks mixture model for traffic incident
duration prediction. Accid Anal Prev 75:192–201
9. Ozbay K, Kachroo P (1999) Incident management in intelligent transportation systems
10. Smith KW, Smith BL (2001) Forecasting the clearance time of freeway accidents. The Center
11. Wang W, Chen H, Bell MC (2002) A study of characteristics of motorway vehicle breakdown
duration. In: Eleventh international conference on road transport information and control
(Conf. Publ. No. 486). IET
 Combined PCA and NB to Predict Traffic Incident Duration 11

12. Parka H, Haghania A, Zhangb X (2016) Interpretation of Bayesian neural networks for
predicting the duration of detected incidents. J Intell Transp Syst Technol Plann Oper 20(4):
385–400
13. Jiyang B, Zhang X, Sun L (2008) Traffic incident duration prediction grounded on Bayesian
decision method-based tree algorithm. J Tongji Univ (Nat Sci) 36(3):319 (in Chinese)
14. Yu B et al (2016) A comparison of the performance of ANN and SVM for the prediction of
traffic accident duration. Neural Netw World 26(3):271
 Improve the Urban Basic Construction of Facilities
and Guarantee the Urban Traffic Flow
The Research of Traffic-Nodes After Completing the In-Plane
Four-Palace Type Expressway Networks

Jianyong Fei ✉
( )

Urumqi Bureau of Municipal Construction, Urumqi, China

269365547@qq.com

Abstract. This paper shows new-arisen traffic-nodes problems and the economic
and social benefits brought from the Urumqi in-plane four-palace type
expressway networks. It analyzes the present state of traffic-nodes, digs out the
reasons for this. Furthermore, it brings up feasible solutions and scheme. It draws
summary and reflection of the integrated traffic networks construction, and notes
them down as valuable experience for the subsequent engineering. At last, I come
up with thought and future planning of traffic management and organization.

Keywords: The in-plane four-palace type expressway networks · Traffic-nodes ·

Present traffic state · Solutions and planning

By rebuilding and enlarging the capacity of Urumqi’s main road networks, 3-year lasting
construction of the in-plane four-palace type expressway from 2012 to 2014 has realized
the networking and three dimensional network system of expressway frame in central
area. The in-plane four-palace type expressway networks has greatly improved the urban
traffic environment, and perfected the road networks of Urumqi. In view of the reality,
since this project was finished, it has obviously benefited Urumqi’s traffic. Moreover, it
has promoted the development of Urumqi’s traffic and communication industry, this
project has achieved immense economic and social benefits as well. By enlarging and
remolding the routes, uplifting and rebuilding the ground expressway, building and
transforming the intersections and ramps, not only have they improved the holistic traffic
capacity and the service of the outer ring roads, removed the traffic bottlenecks and the
jamming point, and enhanced the links and transformation of expressway and backbone
road networks, but also it has strengthen the function of urban ring expressway. In the
progress of building the in-plane four-palace type expressway, it was supported by the
Government of Urumqi; it got consistent high raise and recognition in the industry; it
was supported by all the citizens. During the period when it was gradually put into
practice, it achieved successfully in the society. In all, in-plane four-palace type
expressway networks has laid solid foundation for Urumqi’s development and planning
pattern in the future!

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2017

X. Zeng et al. (eds.), International Symposium for Intelligent Transportation
and Smart City (ITASC) 2017 Proceedings, Smart Innovation,
Systems and Technologies 62, DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-3575-3_2
 Improve the Urban Basic Construction 13

Meanwhile, because of the great change resulted from “Siphonic Effect”, which is
caused by the transformation of the expressway backbone, and some influence which is
caused by the limits of building overhead roads in the central area, traffic-nodes problems
have arisen since the in-plane four-palace type was finished. The in-plane four-palace
type roads project acts as the most significant municipal road engineering, so how to
evaluate its benefits of improving urban traffic situation roundly, systematically, and
accurately? How to master the reconstruction of urban traffic flow distribution after it
was finished? How to diagnose and analyze the newly emerging traffic-nodes problems
to improve the situation? How to build a far better integrated traffic network in order to
provide basis, facts of traffic analysis for the subsequent road networks in the central
areas such as “three-line crisscross”? How to provide useful experience and lessons for
the subsequent construction of expressway network in the peripheral cities? These
matters call for great attention. For this reason, although the engineering was completed,
the traffic is in good condition; we still should dig into these matters and take actions to
perfect it (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1. The in-plane four-palace type expressway networks

1. Be serious about the investigation of the present situation, and evaluate the central
road network traffic operation condition and effect reasonably.
The plan and construction of traffic system are supposed to be dynamic. For the
reason that it must be advancing, though the reality may differs from the plan due to the
changes in the development of social economy, we should take actions dynamic scrolling
and always adjust measures.
The research of the in-plane four-palace type expressway networks analyzes its
construction scale and adaptation to urban traffic demands, and the inner structure and
function of the expressway networks in the aspect of level of construction and technical
performance of road networks. It aims at revealing the use quality of the in-plane four-
palace type expressway networks to optimize plans, offer information and gist for further
decisions. With all sorts of quantitative index, we are able to analyze the urban traffic
flow distribution and the differences from the previous traffic system. Also we can eval‐
uate its effect that this engineering promotes traffic system running. The evaluation will
14 J. Fei

stands for “two combinations”: Combination of the efficiency evaluation of expressway

system and the effect of traffic organization to other kinds of roads; Combination of
improvement of go through in sections of highway or important roads and changes of
new-formed urban traffic flow distribution. With quantitative analysis in different
aspects and from different views, we can evaluate the function and main effects of the
in-plane four-palace type engineering in urban traffic system systematically and
accurately.
2. Research and diagnose of traffic matters after in-plane four-palace type expressway
was built, and the following plans, measures to perfect it.
On the basis of first-stage evaluation, aiming at the coming up problems of traffic-
nodes, we can carry out specific survey to accurately evaluate the extent, peculiarity,
and factors of traffic jam. As a result, it’s possible to think of comprehensive actions,
including regional engineering, traffic management, and traffic organization as well.
(1) According to the present situation after the first two phases were completed, we
draw up conclusions about the main traffic-nodes.
① Liudaowan Overpass Ramps: south to the overpass is a north-to-south exit
section where the traffic flow of north-to-south mainline of East Outer Ring
Road, west-to-south turning ramp of Kenan Elevated Road and Liudaowan
ground elevated ramp causes junction. Due to the seven up-down road streams
change into three and the capacity of them differs vastly, it makes this point a
prominent traffic-node in the whole road network.
② Back Street Off-ramp of East Outer Ring Road:It leads to serious jam because
of the poor traffic capacity of the off-ramp roundabout and ground road junction.
③ Renmin Road Off-ramp: the traffic capacity of off-ramp entrance lane crossing
is far from needs, which causes serious congestion.
④ Yuejing Street Overpass of East Outer Ring Road: As the planning and design
for Yuejing Street Overpass haven’t been put into practice, the old one being
malformed overpass, huge traffic flow and complicated headings contribute to
serious traffic jam.
⑤ West-to-north Off-ramp of Kenan Elevated Road: The fact that the traffic
capacity of off-ramp entrance intersection is poor causes serious traffic jam and
even influences the traffic stream in the artery.
⑥ Off-ramp of Kunming Road and ground road of Suzhou Road: the new-widen
Suzhou elevated pier body has huge impact on ground traffic capacity and traffic
flow capacity of transformation and organization. In this case, it’s hard to satisfy
vast ramps traffic demands of transforming on the ground. Different traffic flow
directions disturb one another, which leads to frequent “Deadlock” phenomena
and influences off-ramp traffic of Kunming Road evidently.
⑦ Off-ramp of Hetan Five Layers Overpass and Xinyi Road junction: The fact that
the point of Hetan Five Layers Overpass off-ramp falling point is quite near
Xinyi Road caused the result that the straight movement from Hetan relief road
can’t effectively interweave with right turn movement from off-road. Therefore,
it results in a conflict point, and worse traffic jam.
 Improve the Urban Basic Construction 15

(2) Through analysis and judgments, the factors of traffic-nodes are concluded as
follows:
① Limited by the central land and other factors, several overpass ramps and up-
down ramps don’t reach the potential result. E.g. The impact of intersections.
The traffic capacity of intersection in much degree influences that of up-down ramps.
In the crossing, vehicle is controlled by forbidden signal, so it is forced to slow down,
stop, and then restart, accelerate. In addition, the outer ring road is located in the central
area, the inner road networks running isn’t that fluent. Traffic jam always happens during
pick hours. The car waiting line being too long causes that traffic flow in the off-ramp
is impossible to evacuate, which means ramp stream runs slowly, such as back street
off-ramp of East Outer Ring Road, Yuejing street off-ramp of East Outer Ring Road,
west-to-north off-ramp of Kennan Elevated Road and so on.
② in-plane four-palace type road engineering mainly widens the present elevated roads,
so the new pier body inevitably will influence ground traffic capacity, especially in
the ground roads’ entry and exit:
Limited by elevated bridge pier body, new-built ramps take the place of separate belt
or side pavement. Worse still, it has negative impact on some housing estates so that
they must gather with new roads. Take Yuejing street off-ramp of East Outer Ring
Road(two-lane road) for example, east to off-ramp, near News Building, traffic flow in
the doorway collects and distributes through off-ramp, which leads to heavy jam in the
right lane, also it influences the traffic capacity of ramps, slows the traffic stream and
causes long waiting line.
③ After enlarging in-plane four-palace type roads’ capacity and networking
expressway, due to its apparent “Siphonic Effect”, urban traffic flow distribution
changes greatly, and it triggers new-arisen traffic jam matters.
④ Several traffic-nodes congestion also has something to do with other projects under
construction that occupy land resource and the fact that the following engineering
has not been operated.
At present, 1 line of Urumqi rail transit engineering is tense but orderly. It is prin‐
cipally underground construction of interval station, and it is completely closed. Occu‐
pying large construction field results in ground roads traffic organization changes so that
it weakens present basic traffic capacity and then it intensifies partial road section’s
traffic pressure during peak hours.
(3) In my opinion, taking those issues as point cut, on the basis of thoroughly, deeply
investigating present traffic running problem, we should make plans in terms of
regional engineering transformation, traffic management, adjustment and perfec‐
tion of traffic organization. Here is the analysis of overall perfection thought:
Given that we should guarantee expressway running benefits, as congestion may
influence the whole road networks, it’s a reasonable choice to weaken the traffic function
of expressway sub-flow (If necessary, adopt the way of temporarily closing ramps), and
link expressway traffic to ground roads. By doing so, we can avoid that several jamming
points leads to “Cask Theory” in the whole expressway system.
16 J. Fei

Elevated off-ramp and ground road intersection’s perfection is supposed to be

priority. Research includes how to widen the entrance road of off-ramp and ground
intersection, how to perfect ground intersection organization, and how to coordinate,
response and control ground intersection signals when congestion elevated line is
spreading.
As for ground road beneath the extended elevated road, we’d better enforce our
research into traffic organization perfection plan when it’s in complicated road envi‐
ronment, perfect turning-around position, traffic signal control and traffic flow direction
organization. In particular, avoid congestion spreading in Suzhou Road due to different
traffic flow directions, which reciprocally overlay and disturb and then contributes to
“Deadlock” phenomenon.
Based on this analysis thought, I come up with some advice for current main traffic-
nodes problems in in-plane four-palace type roads as follows:
① Liudaowan Overpass Ramp: On the basis of feasibility study report, it’s possible to
close Liudaowan north-to-south ramp and carry out East Outer Ring Road (Nanhu
East Road-Renmin Road) green wave traffic management during the peak hours or
when at the “7-3” converging point exists heavy traffic jam. In terms of long-dated
traffic organization planning, I suggest that we should put Kelamayi east second-
phase project and Second East Ring Road elevated project as soon as possible. If the
two projects could be in use immediately they’re finished, numerous vehicles could
distribute through the two elevated roads. As a consequence, it will obviously ease
present traffic pressure from East Outer Ring Road, and remove current traffic-nodes.
② Back Street Off-ramp of East Outer Ring Road: A study report shows that it’s useful
to strengthen the traffic capacity of off-ramp roundabout and ground road intersection
part and make measures to perfect traffic organization.
i. It’s suggested that the exit at Back Street Off-ramp of East Outer Ring Road
should cancel left-turn flow (to Dongfeng Road). This traffic flow could go
through Dongfeng Road, Wuxing Road, turn right to Jianguo Road and turn left
so that straight-left conflict points at the crossing of off-ramp exit and then
increase off-ramp traffic flow speed;
ii. It’s suggested that the exit at Back Street Off-ramp of East Outer Ring Road
should cancel the crossing links Wuxing South Road. This traffic flow could turn
right continuously to join Wuxing South Road or via Renmin Road off-ramp of
East Outer Ring Road. At the same time, transform off-ramp exit into two-lane
two-way road.
③ Renmin Road Off-ramp: Investigate and draw up actions to coordinate ground inter‐
section with elevated off-ramp traffic organization and control plans at super satu‐
ration state.
④ Yuejing Street Overpass of East Outer Ring Road: Study partial-widen engineering
measures to improve Yuejing Street bridgehead traffic capacity and traffic organi‐
zation perfection plans.
⑤ West-to-north Off-ramp of Kenan Elevated Road: Study engineering measures to
widen ground road at West-to-north off-ramp falling point and measures to organize,
manage, coordinate and perfect ground intersection and off-ramp traffic.
 Improve the Urban Basic Construction 17

The reason for peak-hour congestion in West-to-north Off-ramp of Kenan Elevated

Road is that we cut down the numbers of lanes of ground system. It used to be one-way
lane. During peak hours, traffic flow change into two lanes, plus a ground relief road to
integrate traffic flow at ground crossing signal lamps. Since right-turn traffic flow is too
much, which leads to long waiting line, it weakens traffic capacity.
It’s suggested that we’d widen ground road for one lane to north at off-ramp falling
point, levy a bungalow at Hepingqu bridgehead, and widen Aletai Road by adding one
speed-change lane to increase right turn vehicle speed. It’s suggested that construct
pedestrian overpass at the gate of Xinjiang University, the museum’s signal lamps.
Meanwhile, remove present ones to decrease congestion resulted from traffic flow’s
waiting line. In this way, the overall traffic capacity in current section could be improved,
and traffic pressure of these three ramps could be relieved.
Combined with long-dated traffic organization plans and thoughts, we can consider
building elevated road at Xihong Road-Wooden Factory grade separation. Lessen
ground road traffic pressure by connecting oriented interconnected ramp with Kenan
Elevated Road, and congestion during peak hours could be removed fundamentally.
⑥ Off-ramp of Kunming Road and ground road of Suzhou Road: Study partial-
construction engineering measures to improve ground road traffic transformation
capacity of traffic flow from ramps and traffic organization and management plans.
Especially perfect different direction traffic flow’s turn around position.
⑦ Off-ramp of Hetan Five Layers Overpass and Xinyi Road junction: Study ideal plans
to adjust Hetan Road broken section in Xinyi Road Overpass field. Setting two indi‐
vidual collector-distributor lanes to avoid conflict between right-turn traffic flows
from five layers overpass off-ramp and straight-on traffic from Hetan relief road. At
present, we can widen Hetan eastern relief road which links northeastern ramp.
Besides, it is wise to widen the old one-way lane into one-way two-lane, remove,
move back and build new high retaining wall, improve traffic capacity of relief road
to Hetan mainline, and shorten vehicle waiting line on the relief road.
In addition, we should pay attention to connections between traffic-nodes and system
improvement. Take these measures as point cut, we should think further and perfect
plans on the basis of in-plane four-palace type expressway networks system analysis.
To guarantee the effect and compare all sorts of plans, it is better to carry out system‐
atical, deep, intuitive test, adjustment and perfection through field investigation.
3. Conclusion and suggestion of integrated in-plane four-palace type expressway traffic
network engineering experience.
After the in-plane four-palace type expressway networks were completed, it serves
as the most significant project to extent to peripheral area and to carry out arterial road
networks transformation. From my point of view, it’s quite necessary to analyze traffic
function and arisen problems after in-plane four-palace type roads was completed from
the aspect of integrated traffic networks. Make it clear the traffic function connection
and link point between central area expressway system and arterial road system, between
central area expressway system and peripheral expressway networks. Come up with
18 J. Fei

specific conclusions and propose for sub subsequent central arterial road networks and
peripheral expressway networks construction as follows:
(1) Construct peripheral through traffic to evacuate outer traffic, to distribute vehicle
for foreign trade and freight vehicle.
Through traffic and freight transport has huge impact on urban traffic. Through traffic
lacks peripheral main road, especially traffic flow in the east that it can’t run smoothly.
Most of it runs on north-southern roads such as Hetan Road, which occupies limited
resources of north-southern roads. The future road networks should solve this problem
firstly, perfect peripheral through and freight passageway, and reduce traffic pressure of
central urban area road networks. Doing as follows:
① Enlarge eastern and western ring freeway construction in city peripheral field to
shield regional traffic’s interference to Urumqi’s urban area;
② Tuwu huge freeway urban section is changed from Hetan Road far phase to eastern
ring freeway, so it passes by urban massif. We can transform Wukui freeway into
urban expressway (the Second Ring Road in the West), recover Midong-
Ganquanbao section of Hetan Road to urban expressway, speed up to construct urban
second ring expressway in the east to reduce in-plane four-palace type expressway
system traffic pressure;
(2) Plan well-connected urban road networks which gives priority to expressway and
arterial road, and adds secondary trunk road and feeder highway.
Expressway system offers vehicle continuous traffic service that isn’t disturbed by
crossing signal delay, which means the speed is faster than ground roads. It even takes
advantage in speed when traffic flow approaches designed traffic capacity over ground
system. Although in-plane four-palace type expressway system set ramps linking ground
roads in many places, passageways are much farther than ground crossings. What it
mainly serves is middle-long distance vehicle. If too many short distance vehicles gather
on expressway, it will certainly reduce the efficiency of expressway system.
Combining Urumqi’s traffic development goal, construct efficient road traffic
system, which construct expressway and arterial road as road networks skeleton, and
take secondary trunk road, feeder highway as road networks basis. It is functional and
has clear aspects. What’s more, it can develop with other means of transportation in a
balanced way.
(3) Improve the traffic capacity of at-grade intersection, increase partial grade sepa‐
ration.
Traffic delay resulted from traffic saturation at crossings acts as the main reason for
traffic jam. Improving the traffic capacity of at-grade intersection and increasing partial
grade separation could improve the running state of elevated expressway. General
crossings have poor traffic capacity because of straight-straight, straight-left and left-
left conflict points. Traffic lamp control, channelization traffic and grade separation are
able to decrease or remove the crossing conflict points.
In the central area where available land is limited, it’s wise not to set huge overpass.
When the traffic flow is not that huge, channelization, multi-phase signal control and
 Improve the Urban Basic Construction 19

simple grade separation are ideal actions. Only when general measures can’t solve the
problem do we consider setting overpass. According to traffic demands forecast model,
predict traffic flow in main road crossings and construct new overpass at the intersections
of expressway’s crossings or expressway-arterial road crossings.
(4) Strive to develop public transportation, and reduce the rate of personal transportation.
Faced with influence of urban traffic flow, doubled motor vehicle and “wasp waist”
traffic bottleneck between new-old towns, depending on big-scale road construction will
only put urban traffic problem into a vicious circle. To avoid urban traffic state worsening
further, we must construct competitive urban public transportation system instead of
personal cars. Give priority to recently constructed BRT in Urumqi’s urban traffic plan‐
ning and construction.
Public transportation could be ground, underground or overhead. Compared with
cars, public transportation vehicle occupies less space but has bigger passenger traffic
capacity. Complete integrated public transportation system which take rail transit as
skeleton, including numerous means of transportation such as bus rapid transit, conven‐
tional public transit and taxis.
(5) Plan and construct external traffic hub facilities.
By setting traffic hub station, it improves urban transportation accessibility, and
reduces the differences among stations so that it can balance popularity distribution. In
this way, we can drive core cities’ distribution, activate cities’ peripheral land, induce
new distribution of urban popularity and employment, and promote to perfect cities’
space form. Setting traffic hub stations plays an important role in improving transpor‐
tation (long-distance passenger traffic, conventional public transit, BRT, subway and so
on) running efficiency, and is an significant aspect of improving urban transportation
service level.

References

1. Dorigo M, Gambardella LM (1997) An ant system: a cooperative learning approach to the

⋤ᕝ 懵㊰◞ྠ䘾ቃୗ஺㏻᥍ไ୚庀⺋◞ྠ◊✲ 䫤ኈᏛ఩幉ᩥ ⏿ᕞ⌮ᕤ኱Ꮫ

traveling salesman problem. IEEE Trans Evol Cooperation (S1089-778X) 1(1):53–66
2.
⋤唂㟷 㠃ྥᇛᕷኞ㧑㐨㊰ⓗ஺㏻≧㊐幕Ⓔᡭẁ୚⟬ἲ◊✲ 䫤ኈᏛ఩幉ᩥ ྠ㿝኱
. [D]. [ ]. ,2014
3.
Ꮫ
. [D].[ ].

⋤ዒ᭯ 㔠❧ྡ ⿁名歭 ᇛᕷ㐨㊰஺ཫཱྀ懵戕᤼梮஺㏻ὶ≧㊐⌮幉◊✲ ࠓᇛᕷᘓ幍⌮幉

,2015
4.
◊✲ࠔ ➨ ༹➨ ᮇ 欄 ᖺ ᭶
, , , ,
, 6 1 ,72 ,2016 1
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
 Because, Robbie—to return to your question—your Scotsman
believes only in success. How can a man, who regards success as
the goal of life, be a true artist? God saved the genius of Robert
Burns to poetry by driving him through drink to failure. Think what an
appalling figure in literature a successful Burns would have been! He
was already trying to write poems in polite English, which was about
as ludicrous as for a polite Englishman to try to write poetry in the
dialect of Burns. Riotous living and dying saved him from that last
degradation of smug prosperity which threatened him.
l.h. But do you mean no artists are successful?
o.w. Incidentally; never intentionally. If they are, they remain
incomplete. The artist’s mission is to live the complete life: success,
as an episode (which is all it can be); failure, as the real, the final
end. Death, analysed to its resultant atoms—what is it but the
vindication of failure: the getting rid for ever of powers, desires,
appetites, which have been a lifelong embarrassment? The poet’s
noblest verse, the dramatist’s greatest scene deal always with death;
because the highest function of the artist is to make perceived the
beauty of failure.
r.r. But have Scotsmen of genius been any more successful, in a
wordly sense, than others? I seem to remember a few who failed
rather handsomely.
o.w. Possibly. Providence is sometimes kinder to us than we are
ourselves. But never was there a Scotsman of genius who survived
his youth, who was not fatally compromised by his nationality. To fail
and to die young is the only hope for a Scotsman who wishes to
remain an artist. When, at the end of the eighteenth century,
Scotland produced her second great writer of genius, she inspired
him to a terrible betrayal (for which the tradespeople of literature still
praise him)—to break his art on the wheel of commercial rectitude, to
write books which became worse and worse, in order to satisfy his
creditors! In Dante’s Purgatorio there is nothing to equal the horror of
it. But he succeeded; and Scotland, in consequence, is proud of him.
I see by your faces that you all know the man I mean: one does not
have to name him. Think of unhappy Sir Walter, writing his
transcendent pot-boilers for no other reason than to wipe out
bankruptcy! Bankruptcy, that beneficent fairy, who presents to all
who trust her with their insolvency five, ten, fifteen, sometimes even
nineteen shillings in the pound of what they owe to their creditors—to
those usurious ones whose extortionate demands, recognized in
other branches of the law, here get turned down. How much did she
give me, Robbie?
r.r. An extension of time, Oscar. She hasn’t done with you yet.
o.w. No; she does not dismiss the lover from her embraces while
she has any hope of securing the restoration of his balance, or of
discovering some deeper stain in his character. What touching
devotion! She is the romantic figure of the money-market. But I
believe—or at least I tell myself—that fewer Scotsmen go bankrupt
than any other nationality. It is not, however, merely monetary
success which seduces them; success, in all its aspects, has for
them a baleful attraction. They succumb to it intellectually, morally,
spiritually. On that Carlyle wrecked his chances of producing a
permanent work of art greater than his French Revolution.
all. Carlyle?
o.w. I surprise you? Is that because we all know that Carlyle
remained poor? So do misers. Carlyle was the greatest intellectual
miser of the nineteenth century. In his prime he wrote his greatest
work—the history of a failure—the French Revolution. The time
came when, with all his powers matured, he stood equipped for the
writing of his supreme masterpiece. There was no need to look far
afield for a subject: it stood obvious awaiting him. After his French
Revolution he should have written the life of Napoleon—the greatest
success, the greatest failure that the world has ever known. He
would have done it magnificently. What a spectacle for the world: the
Man of Destiny receiving from the son of humble Scottish peasants
his right measure of immortality! But because Carlyle was a
Scotsman, he would not take for his hero the man whose life ended
in failure: he could not bring himself to face the débâcle of Waterloo,
the enduring ignominy and defeat of St. Helena. Had he been true to
his art, he would have realized that St. Helena was the greatest
theme of all—for an artist, the most completely significant in the
whole of modern history. But because he had the soul of a
Scotsman, because he worshipped success, he looked for his hero,
and found him, in that most mean and despicable character,
Frederick the Great: a man to whom heaven had given the powers of
a supreme genius, and hell the soul of a commercial traveller with
that unavailing itch for cultural gentility which Voltaire has exposed
for us. On that mean theme he wrote his most voluminous work, and
became, in the process, that skeleton in Mrs. Carlyle’s cupboard
which the world now knows.
You smile at me, Robbie, but believe me, in my own ruin I have
found out this truth. The artist must live the complete life, must
accept it as it comes and stands like an angel before him, with its
drawn and two-edged sword. Great success, great failure—only so
shall the artist see himself as he is, and through himself see others;
only so shall he learn (as the artist must learn) the true meaning
behind the appearance of things material, of life in general, and—
more terrible still—the meaning of his own soul.
l.h. Why is a man’s soul more terrible than life in general? Does
not the greater include the less?
o.w. Because an epitome is always more terrible than a
generalization. We do not see life in general steadily diminishing in
force and vitality, or we do not realize it; the whole bulk is too great.
But when a man really sees into himself, the process of diminution
that is going on becomes apparent: he meets there a problem he
cannot escape—a problem to which religion, and philosophy, and
history can give no certain answer, however much they may pretend.
As I sit here—with a few friends left to me; friends who, however
faithful, their number must needs diminish—for I shall never make a
new friend in my life, though perhaps a few after I die—as I sit here
and look back, I realize that I have lived the complete life necessary
to the artist: I have had great success, I have had great failure. I
have learned the value of each; and I know now that failure means
more—always must mean more than success. Why, then, should I
complain? I do not mean that a certain infirmity of the flesh, or
weakness of the will would not make me prefer that this should have
happened to one of my friends—to one of you—rather than to
myself; but admitting that, I still recognize that I have only at last
come to the complete life which every artist must experience in order
to join beauty to truth. I have come to see that St. Helena is, for a
world which follows Cæsar and not Christ, the greatest place on
earth next to Calvary. It is more neglected: men do not fight for it,
they do not go out to conquer it in weary generations of disastrous
crusades, like those which did so much to destroy for Catholic
Europe the true significance of Christianity. But it is there; and only
when men begin to fight for it, as a thing desirable and precious to
possess, only then will its spiritual significance change, and its value
diminish.
If I could write what I have been saying to you, if I could hope to
interest others, as I seem to have interested you, I would; but the
world will not listen to me—now. It is strange—I never thought it
possible before—to regret that one has too much leisure: leisure
which I used so to lack, when I myself was a creator of beautiful
things.
l.h. But you told me, in your last letter, that you were writing
something?
o.w. I told you that I was going to write something: I tell everybody
that. It is a thing one can repeat each day, meaning to do it the next.
But in my heart—that chamber of leaden echoes—I know that I
never shall. It is enough that the stories have been invented, that
they actually exist; that I have been able, in my own mind, to give
them the form which they demand.
r.r. If you won’t write them, Oscar, you might at least tell them.
o.w. You have heard them all, Robbie.
r.r. The others have not.
o.w. My dear Robbie, you are not nearly artful enough; but you are
very kind. I will tell you one of my stories presently. Let us go on
talking till the appropriate moment makes it more possible.... Is it I, or
is it the ortolans that are still keeping us here? I do not mind; I would
only like to know.
 r.r. To tell you the truth, Oscar, the ortolans were merely a
delicate excuse. We are now waiting for the most perfectly forgetful,
and the most regularly unpunctual person that any of us know. Do
you mind if I cling for five minutes more to my belief that he really
intends to meet us?
o.w. Not at all; a charming experiment. Forgetfulness is a great
gift. While he exercises it, we have more time for being happy where
we are than we should otherwise have allowed ourselves. Who is
our benefactor?
r.r. I thought you might like to meet Harvey Jerrold again. I was
keeping it behind the ortolans as a surprise for you.
(The name has evoked a look of eager, almost of startled,
pleasure; and response comes with animation.)
o.w. My dear Robbie; but how inventive of you! What a finishing
touch to a circle which already seemed complete! I did not know that
he was here.
r.r. He only arrived last night. I ’phoned to his hotel and left a
message for him asking him to join us. This morning he sent word
that he would come.
o.w. (with just a shade of doubt in his tone). Did you tell him who
we all were?
r.r. I only said “friends.” He knows all of us.
o.w. If he has not, in the exercise of his gift, forgotten some of us.
That—as I remember him—is possible.
r.r. He can’t have forgotten you, at any rate, considering it was
you who published his first plays for him. Or did you only write them?
o.w. Ah! but he has done so much better since. Suppose he were
now ashamed of them. He was one of those—true artists—who
make a reputation before they do anything. That is the right way to
begin; but few have the courage to persevere. It is so difficult. Yet he,
of course, is the most complete artist who is able to remain perfect—
doing nothing.
 r.r. I have heard you say that before. But for the sake of the
others won’t you explain it? Your explanations are so much more
illuminating than your statements, you know.
o.w. I may have said the same thing before, Robbie. (It requires a
friend to tell one so!) But my explanation, I am sure, will always be
different. And yet the one which comes at this moment seems only
too obvious. The greatest work of the imagination, for an artist, is to
create first himself, then his public. The writing of my plays and my
poems was never difficult: because they belonged to me, they came
at call. But to make my own public was a labour of Hercules. That is
what I did first. The effort lay in the fact that while one appeared to
be doing nothing, one was actually prostrated by the exertion. I have
known what it is to come back from a week-end—one of those
ordeals by tattle which the stately homes of England provide for the
passing guest—almost literally at death’s door, from which nothing
but hermetic seclusion, until the week-end following, enabled me to
escape. One of my doctors called it “heart-strain,” the other “brain-
fag.” It was really both. I remember once, on a Monday morning,
missing an unreasonably early train, and having to return for four
hours to the bosom of a ducal family, when its exhibition hours were
over. It was a charnel house: the bones of its skeleton rattled: the
ghosts gibbered and moaned. Time remained motionless. I was
haunted. I could never go there again. I had seen what man is never
meant to see—the sweeping up of the dust on which the footfall of
departing pleasure has left its print. There for two days I had been
creating my public: the two days given by God to the Jewish and the
Christian world for rest; and from that breaking of the sabbath,
creator and created were equally exhausted. The breath of life I had
so laboriously breathed into their nostrils they were getting rid of
again, returning to native clay. And yet how few understand what a
life of heroism is that of an artist when he is producing—not his art,
but the receptacle which is to contain it. That, dear friends, is why
the world is to the artist so tragic. It is always a struggle. The artist
may possibly for a while mould the world; but if the world moulds
him, he has failed to become an artist, though he may have
succeeded in acquiring the Scotch accent.
 l.h. You spoke just now of the artist creating a public for the
appreciation of his work; can he not also create other artists? Would
not that be the ideal aim?
o.w. Ideal, but impossible. You cannot create an artist; you can
only invent one—and it always remains a fiction. Artists—God’s last
creation, secret recipients of the Word of Life—continue to create
themselves. But invention is often tried as a substitute. I remember,
years ago, Hermann Vezin inventing an actress who was to be a
second Rachel. For years and years he continued to invent her,
telling us what to expect. Then one day he produced her....
r.r. (after allowing the rhetorical pause its due weight). What
happened? I don’t remember.
o.w. On the day he produced her, she ceased to exist.
r.r. You mean she didn’t arrive?
o.w. Her arrival was a departure: the stage was her terminus.
Engines whistled; the uproar became frightful. She ran to Brighton
without stopping; and, I believe, still dies there.
l.h. Was she so bad, then, after all?
o.w. She may have been almost a genius; who can tell? The fatal
mistake was when Hermann Vezin began inventing her. What would
happen to an actress, however great, who came upon the stage
bejewelled with the names of Sarah, Rachel, Ristori, Siddons?
Probability becomes violated; the sense of the theatre is destroyed.
When that happens all is over. Hermann Vezin should have held his
tongue till the gods themselves applauded. But he lacked faith. The
worst thing you can do for a person of genius is to help him: that way
lies destruction. I have had many devoted helpers—and you see the
result. Only once did I help a man who was also a genius. I have
never forgiven myself.
r.r. Oscar, you are perfectly absurd!
o.w. (with a glance of genuine affection). But I have forgiven you,
Robbie.
l.h. What happened?
 o.w. To the man I helped? He never told me; and I would not ask.
When we met afterwards, he had so greatly changed that, though I
recognized him, he failed to recognize me. He became a Roman
Catholic, and died at the age of twenty-three, a great artist—with half
the critics and all the moralists still hating him. A charming person!
l.h. How often one hears that said, as though it were the final
summing up of a man’s life and character—covering everything.
o.w. But surely it is so. What is more fundamental, more
inalienable from a man’s personality, than charm? He may lose his
looks; he may lose his character; but in almost every case that I
have known—in spite of adverse circumstances—the charm
remains, like the gift of a fairy godmother: something which cannot
be got rid of. A person who has charm has the secret of life; but does
not know what the secret is—he himself being the secret. For in this
wonderful turning world we can know other people by their
differences—as I know all of you; but we can never know ourselves.
Matthew Arnold, a fine but a very mistaken poet, was always trying
to do the most impossible thing of all—to know himself. And that is
why sometimes, in the middle of his most beautiful poems, he left off
being the poet and became the school inspector.
l.h. I thought you said that the artist must know himself in order to
know others?
o.w. Never! You misunderstood me. “See himself” is what I said;
and, seeing himself naked but not ashamed, learn the terrible
meaning of his own soul—how it exists to torment and divide him
against himself, but always as a stranger within his gates, remote,
inscrutable, unnatural. For this thing, which he can never
understand, goes deeper than the consciousness of self—it is
something primitive, atavistic, fierce, and savage with a fanatical
faith in gods whom this world tries no longer to believe in, but still
fears, lest they should become true. When news of Matthew Arnold’s
death came to Robert Louis Stevenson in Samoa, he said (for he
was a Scotsman with a fine sense of humour): “How dreadful! He
won’t like God.” You smile; and yet there was a very real truth in it.
The theology of Matthew Arnold was a terrible mistake; it arose out
of that insistence on trying to know himself: he wanted also to know
God. And just as trying to know yourself savours of social snobbery
—being an attempt to know the person you think the most important
in the world, so in the other attempt there is a certain spiritual
snobbery. It is surely quite sufficient that He should know us, without
any pretended recognition on our part, which, in any case, would be
futile. For if a man cannot know his own soul with real
understanding, still less can he know with real understanding that
which directs its ministry of pain—that constant intolerable reminder
that we can never, unless we would choose only to be dust, belong
separately and entirely to ourselves. Man’s destiny is to be haunted;
however deserted of his fellows, he is never for a moment alone.
Matthew Arnold, in one of his poems, made that beautiful but
ridiculous statement which appeals to us, perhaps, as true because
we would so much like it to be true:

Yes, in this sea of life enisled,

We mortal millions live alone!

We don’t: we live with a familiar who is a stranger, always eating out

of our hand, always defrauding us of the joys of life while denying us
the reason. And we never know from day to day whether that
stranger is going to murder us in cold blood, or make us become
saints.
r.r. Why not both? To me they sound almost synonymous.
o.w. Robbie, you must not interrupt me, saying clever, sensible
things like that: you put me out. People who want to say merely what
is sensible should say it to themselves before they come down to
breakfast in the morning, never after.
l.h. That was when Lewis Carroll’s “White Queen” used to practise
telling herself all the things she knew to be impossible.
r.r. I always thought that meant saying her prayers.
o.w. But saying prayers, Robbie, is always possible. It is only the
answer to prayer that is impossible. Prayer must never be answered:
if it is, it ceases to be prayer, and becomes a correspondence. If we
ask for our daily bread and it is given us as manna was given to the
Israelites in the wilderness, it is merely an invitation to dinner
reversed. How much more devotional the exercise becomes when
we know that our food comes to us from quite mundane sources,
irrespective of prayer.
h.d. But your prayer then becomes merely a superstition.
o.w. Not at all: a compliment—a spiritual courtesy which one may
surely hope is appreciated in the proper place. I do not say it
derisively. There is a proper place for the appreciation of everything.
And perhaps it is only in heaven—and in hell—that art, now so
generally despised, will receive the appreciation that is due to it.
h.a. In heaven, yes; but why in hell?
o.w. Why in hell? I must tell you one of my stories.
(A grave smile passes from face to face, as the friends
lean forward attentively to listen; for they know that
this born story-teller only tells them when, for the
moment, life contents him.)
In hell, among all the brave company that is ever to be found there of
lovers, and fair ladies, and men of learning, and poets, and
astrologers, amid all the ceaseless movement of doomed bodies,
tossing and turning to be rid of the torment of their souls, one woman
sat alone and smiled. She had the air of a listener, ever with lifted
head and eyes raised, as though some voice from above were
attracting her.
“Who is that woman?” enquired a new-comer, struck by the
strange loveliness of her face, with its look the meaning of which he
could not read, “the one with the smooth, ivory limbs, and the long
hair falling down over her arms to the hands resting upon her lap.
She is the only soul whose eyes are ever looking aloft. What
skeleton does she keep in the cupboard of God up yonder?”
He had not finished speaking before one made haste to answer, a
man who carried in his hand a wreath of withered leaves. “They say,”
he said, “that once on earth she was a great singer, with a voice like
stars falling from a clear sky. So when doom came for her, God took
her voice and cast it forth to the eternal echoes of the spheres,
finding it too beautiful a thing to let die. Now she hears it with
recognition, and remembering how once it was her own, shares still
the pleasure which God takes in it. Do not speak to her, for she
believes that she is in heaven.”
And when the man, bearing the wreath of withered leaves, had
finished, “No,” said another, “that is not her story.”
“What then?”
“It is this,” he said, as the man with the withered wreath turned
away: “On earth a poet made his song of her, so that her name
became eternally wedded to his verse, which still rings on the lips of
men. Now she lifts her head and can hear his praise of her sounded
wherever language is spoken. That is her true story.”
“And the poet?” asked the new-comer. “Did she love him well?”
“So little,” replied the other, “that here and now she passes him
daily and does not recognize his face.”
“And he?”
The other laughed, and answered: “It is he who just now told you
that tale concerning her voice, continuing here the lies which he
used to make about her when they two were together on earth.”
But the new-comer said, “If he is able to give happiness in hell,
how can what he says be a lie?”
(There is an appreciative pause: no one speaks: from
those listening faces no word of praise is necessary.
Once more the speaker has secured the homage of
his fellow men; and so, forgetting for a while the pit
that life has digged for him, continues to narrate to his
friends the stories which he will never write.)
Since that has appealed to you, I will tell you another.... Once
there was a young man, so beautiful of mind that all who heard him
wished to be of his company; so beautiful of form——
 (In the middle of a sentence he pauses, as he sees
advancing—though the others, intent only on him, do
not—a young man, graceful in person, indolent in
motion, who, with a light nonchalant air, meets and
lets go the glances of strangers as they pass. From
these, as he draws near, his eye turns toward the
group seated at the out-door table under the sun-
bright awning, and becomes fixed and attentive.
Glance meets glance, holds for a moment, till that of
the younger man is withdrawn. Without any change of
countenance he slightly deflects his course and
passes on. In the face they are watching, the friends
see a quick change: the colour goes, the look of quiet
expectation ends abruptly, as though sight had
stopped dead. But it is with his accustomed
deliberation of tone that at last he resumes speaking.)
Ah, no; that is a story of which I have forgotten the end: or else it
has forgotten me. No matter; I will tell you another. This is one that
has only just occurred to me; and I am not quite sure yet what the
end of it will be. But it is there waiting. You and I will listen to this
story together, as I tell it for the first time.
This shall be called “The Story of the Man who sold his Soul.”
A certain traveller, passing through the streets of a great city,
came there upon a man whose countenance indicated a grief which
he could not fathom. The traveller, being a curious student of the
human heart, stopped him and said: “Sir, what is this grief which you
carry before the eyes of all men, so grievous that it cannot be
hidden, yet so deep that it cannot be read?”
The man answered: “It is not I who grieve so greatly; it is my soul,
of which I cannot get rid. And my soul is more sorrowful than death,
for it hates me, and I hate it.”
The traveller said: “If you will sell your soul to me, you can be well
rid of it.” The other answered: “Sir, how can I sell you my soul?”
“Surely,” replied the traveller, “you have but to agree to sell me your
soul at its full price; then, when I bid it, it comes to me. But every
soul has its true price; and only at that, neither at more nor at less,
can it be bought.”
Then said the other: “At what price shall I sell you this horrible
thing, my soul?”
The traveller answered: “When a man first sells his own soul he is
like that other betrayer; therefore its price should be thirty pieces of
silver. But after that, if it passes to other hands, its value becomes
small; for to others the souls of their fellow men are worth very little.”
So for thirty pieces of silver the man sold his soul; and the traveller
took it and departed.
Presently the man, having no soul, found that he could do no sin.
Though he stretched out his arms to sin, sin would not come to him.
“You have no soul,” said sin, and passed him by. “Wherefore should I
come to you? I have no profit in a man that has no soul?”
Then the man without a soul became very miserable, for though
his hands touched what was foul they remained clean, and though
his heart longed for wickedness, it remained pure; and when he
thirsted to dip his lips in fire, they remained cool.
Therefore a longing to recover his soul took hold of him, and he
went through the world searching for the traveller to whom he had
sold it, that he might buy it back and again taste sin in his own body.
After a long time the traveller met him; but hearing his request he
laughed and said: “After a while your soul wearied me and I sold it to
a Jew for a smaller sum than I paid for it.”
“Ah!” cried the man, “if you had come to me I would have paid
more.” The traveller answered: “You could not have done that; a soul
cannot be bought or sold but at its just price. Your soul came to be of
small value in my keeping; so to be rid of it I sold it to the first comer
for considerably less money than I paid in the beginning.”
So parting from him the man continued his quest, wandering over
the face of the earth and seeking to recover his lost soul. And one
day as he sat in the bazaar of a certain town a woman passed him,
and looking at him said: “Sir, why are you so sad? It seems to me
there can be no reason for such sadness.” The man answered: “I am
sad because I have no soul, and am seeking to find it.”
The other said: “Only the other night I bought a soul that had
passed through so many hands that it had become dirt-cheap; but it
is so poor a thing I would gladly be rid of it. Yet I bought it for a mere
song; and a soul can only be sold at its just price; how, then, shall I
be able to sell it again—for what is worth less than a song? And it
was but a light song that I sang over the wine-cup to the man who
sold it me.”
When the other heard that, he cried: “It is my own soul! Sell it to
me, and I will give you all that I possess!”
The woman said: “Alas, I did but pay for it with a song, and I can
but sell it again at its just price. How then can I be rid of it, though it
cries and laments to be set free?”
The man without a soul laid his head to the woman’s breast, and
heard within it the captive soul whimpering to be set free, to return to
the body it had lost. “Surely,” he said, “it is my own soul! If you will
sell it to me I will give you my body, which is worth less than a song
from your lips.”
So, for his body, the other sold to him the soul that whimpered to
be set free to return to its own place. But so soon as he received it
he rose up aghast: “What have you done?” he cried, “and what is
this foul thing that has possession of me? For this soul that you have
given me is not my soul!”
The woman laughed and said: “Before you sold your soul into
captivity it was a free soul in a free body; can you not recognize it
now it comes to you from the traffic of the slave-market? So, then,
your soul has the greater charity, since it recognizes and returns to
you, though you have sold your body miserably into bondage!”
And thus it was that the man had to buy back, at the cost of his
body, the soul which he let go for thirty pieces of silver.
(With occasional pauses imposed for effect, but without
any hesitation or change in the choice of word, the
ordered narrative has run its course. But in spite of
 the decorative form, and the decorative modulations
of tone, there is an under-current of passion; and his
friends, undeceived by that quiet deliberateness of
speech, know that the speaker is greatly moved. And
so, at the end, there is a pause while nobody speaks.
At the kiosk opposite a newsboy arrives, and delivers
a bundle of papers to the woman in charge. Over her
is an announcement to the Englishman, in his native
tongue, that his own papers are there on sale. From
the restaurant comes a garçon charged with a
message, and wishing to have instructions. The two,
who have shared in the arrangement, exchange
glances interrogatively; R.R. looks at his watch and
nods. L.H. signs to the garçon who has served the
aperitifs.)
r.r. Let us go in to lunch. Jerrold is not coming; he has forgotten
us.
o.w. Not all of us, Robbie. He came, but he has gone again.
(They all look at him in astonishment; and, for a moment,
nobody speaks. Then:)
r.r. Came? Here, do you mean?
o.w. Looking as young and charming as ever. But, as soon as he
looked at me, I saw he had entirely forgotten me.
(There is nothing possible to be said. L.H. makes haste to
pay for the aperitifs; and with the anxiety of an
Englishman, unpractised in foreign ways, to do what
is right for the reputation of his country in a strange
land, he puts down an additional pour-boire, five
bronze pieces in all, to correspond to the number who
have been served. With grave apologetic politeness
his guest lays an arresting hand upon his arm; and
(while the garçon whisks away the douceur with
cheerful alacrity) instructs him for future occasions.)
 o.w. My dear L.H., you should not do that! The Frenchman, for
these casual services, gives what you call a penny. The Englishman
gives what some of them call “tuppence”; not because he does not
know that the Frenchman’s penny is sufficient, but because he is an
Englishman. If you give more than that the waiter only thinks that you
do not know where you are.
l.h. (who has a weakness for putting himself in the right, even in
quite small matters.) Ah, yes, Mr. Wilde, that may be, but here, at St.
Helena, one tips the waiters differently.
(It is touching to see what pleasure that foolish but
fortunate little “mot” has given to the man for whom it
was designed. They have all now risen; and their next
move will be to the tabled interior, where pleasant
courses are awaiting them. But the forward movement
is delayed; and it is with a curious air of finality, as
though already taking his leave, that O.W. speaks.)
o.w. My friends, we have had a wonderful hour together. I have
been very happy. Excuse me: I am going across to get an English
paper. The woman at the kiosk, who sells them, is a charming
character: she compliments my accent by pretending to think that I
am French. Go in: I beg you not to wait for me.
(They see him cross the street, with his accustomed air of
leisurely deliberation—a little amused to notice how
the vehement traffic has to pause and make way for
him. At the kiosk he and the woman exchange words
and smiles. He lifts his hat and turns away.)
l.h. (startled). He’s not coming back?
r.r. Harvey Jerrold wants kicking. Poor Oscar!
h.a. Shall I go after him?
r.r. No, no! Let him go. We understand.
(And they all stand and watch, as he passes slowly down
the street, till he disappears in the crowd.)
 Footnote

T WENTY years after a man’s death is usually a sufficient time to

compose, in their proper unimportance, the prejudices and
enmities which have surrounded his career. But in this particular
case, I suppose, it has hardly done so; and the man who was so
greatly over-rated by his own following, during those ten years of
literary and social triumph which made him the vogue, was, in the
ten years after, as carefully under-rated, not because the quality of
his work had proved itself poor and ephemeral, but because of
something that he had done.
The blight which fell on his literary reputation was about as
sensible in its application as it would have been for historians to
deny that Marlborough was a great general because he peculated
and took bribes, or that Mahomet was a great religious leader
because he had a number of wives, or that David was a great poet
because he preferred the love of Jonathan to the love of women. In
which last-named absurdity of critical inconsequence we have
something very much to the point; and it is upon that point, and
because the world has been so unintelligently slow in seizing it, that I
am moved to write this footnote to my dialogue, with which, in
subject, it has so little to do.
Always, so long as it stays remembered, the name of Oscar Wilde
is likely to carry with it a shadowy implication of that strange
pathological trouble which caused his downfall. And whatever else
may be said for or against the life of promiscuous indulgence he
appears to have led, his downfall did at least this great service to
humanity, that—by the sheer force of notoriety—it made the
“unmentionable” mentionable; and marks the dividing of the ways
between the cowardice and superstitious ignorance with which the
problem had been treated even by sociologists and men of science,
and the fearless analysis of origins and causes which has now
become their more reputable substitute.
 Obscurantists may still insist on treating as an acquired depravity
what medical research has now proved to be an involuntary or
congenital deflection from a “normality” which exact science finds it
harder and harder to define. But in spite of these surviving
resistances to the formation of a new social conscience, intelligence
is at work, and to-day it is no longer eccentric or disreputable to
insist that the whole problem shall henceforth be studied and treated
from the medical, rather than from the criminal standpoint; so that in
future, whatever limitation of reticence or segregation society
decides to impose on men whose tendencies are ineradicably homo-
sexual, the treatment shall be health-giving in character and
purpose, carrying with it no social or moral damnation of those who,
in the vast majority of cases, have been made what they are by
forces outside their own volition, either at their birth or in early
infancy.
The comical ignorance and ineptitude of which quite brilliant minds
are capable in regard to a matter that they wish to relegate to mental
obscurity, was well exemplified in the remarks made to me on this
subject, only ten years ago, by one who ranked then as now among
the most eminent of British bacteriologists. He had been told, he
said, that homo-sexuality came from meat-eating; and his solution of
the problem was to have all homo-sexuals put to death. But the
subject, he went on to say, did not interest him; nor did he propose to
give the meat-eaters (of whom he himself was one) any warning of
their pathological danger, or of his proposed remedy for the
pathological condition to which their meat-eating habits might bring
them. Having escaped the infection himself, he was quite willing,
apparently, to leave the rest to chance. It was, he had been told, very
prevalent, but personally he had not come across it. And so he
continued to interest himself in bacteriology, through which fame,
wealth, and title had come to him.
As I left his consulting-room I felt as though I had just emerged
from the Middle Ages, and from listening to the discourse of some
learned theologian—a marvellous expert in the doctrine of the
Incarnation and the Procession of the Holy Spirit, but still believing
that the sun went round the earth, and that the earth was flat; and
though—God aiding him—he would put to death any who thought
otherwise, the subject did not interest him!
He remains to me a portentous example of how a really brilliant
mind can totter into second infancy when called upon to dig for the
roots of knowledge outside his own cabbage-patch in hitherto
uncultivated ground.
What led me to this strange scientific experience was very much to
the point. For it was just then, ten years ago, that I had been asked
to join a society having for its object the formation of a more
intelligent and less servile public opinion on this and various other
difficult sex problems which are a part of human nature. I agreed to
do so upon one condition—that membership should be open to men
and women on equal terms, and that women should be upon the
executive committee. Even in that comparatively enlightened group
the proposal seemed revolutionary; and I was asked whether I
realized that such things as homo-sexuality would have to be openly
discussed. My answer was: “That is why we must include women.” I
contended that where a problem concerns both sexes alike, only by
the full co-operation of both sexes can it be rightly solved.
My contention was admitted to be sound, and the society was
formed on the equal basis I had advocated; and perhaps one of its
best discoveries is that, in a body of social goodwill, there is no such
thing as “the unmentionable.” Since then, women have been called
to juries, and it has become a duty of good citizenship for them to
share with men the knowledge of things which the obscurantists, in
order to keep them as a male perquisite, chose to describe as
“unmentionable.”
“E pur se muove”: that wise old saying continues to have its
application in every age. Always, at some contentious point in the
affairs of men, belief in knowledge and belief in ignorance stand as
antagonists. The nineteenth century had its superstitions, quite as
much as the sixteenth and the seventeenth centuries, when loyalty
to the Mosaic law made the persecution of witchcraft a religious duty.
And a surviving superstition of our own time has been that false and
foolish moral insistence on regarding certain maladjustments of
nature as something too horrible to be mentioned, and of putting the
victims thereof in a class apart, rather lower than the ordinary
criminal. The old theological idea that the world was flat reproduced
itself in another form; and so, in spite of the advance of science, the
moral world had to remain flat and simple, unencumbered by nature-
problems, for fear of the terrible things it might have to contain and
account for if once admitted to be round.
Twentieth-century science is busy proving to us that the moral
world is dangerously round; and it is no use trying to fall off it by
walking about it with shut eyes. From a flat world that method of
escape might be conceivably possible, but not from a round. A round
world has us in its grip; and it is our duty as intelligent human beings
to face the danger and get used to it.
What a strange irony of life that the man who tried most to detach
himself from the unlovely complications of modern civilization should
have become the symbol, or the byword, of one of its least solved
problems; and that society’s blind resentment toward a phenomenon
it had not the patience or the charity to trace to its origin, should
have supplied him so savagely with that “complete life of the artist”
which success could never have given him.