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(Download PDF) Climate Change The Science of Global Warming and Our Energy Future 2Nd Edition Edmond A Mathez Online Ebook All Chapter PDF
(Download PDF) Climate Change The Science of Global Warming and Our Energy Future 2Nd Edition Edmond A Mathez Online Ebook All Chapter PDF
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CLIMATE
CHANGE
THE SCIENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING
AND OUR ENERGY FUTURE
SECOND EDITION
Second Edition
Columbia University Press books are printed on permanent and durable acid-free paper.
Printed in the United States of America
Preface xi
Prologue 1
Weather and Climate 1
The Climate System 2
Climate Change: Separating Facts from Fears 5
Thinking About the Future in the Face of Uncertainty 8
The Story 9
1. The Atmosphere 13
The Composition of Air 13
The Compressibility and Pressure of Air 15
Mechanisms of Heat and Mass Transfer 16
The Thermal and Compositional Layering of the Atmosphere 21
The General (Global) Circulation of the Atmosphere 29
Key Points in This Chapter 40
2. The World Ocean 43
Important Properties of Water 44
The Ocean’s Layered Structure 49
The Ocean’s Surface Currents 53
Global Flows of Water Through the Ocean 57
The Hydrological Cycle 63
Key Points in This Chapter 65
3. Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions 69
Exchanges at the Ocean–Atmosphere Interface 69
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation 71
Other Modes of Ocean and Atmosphere Variability 88
Key Points in This Chapter 97
viii • CONTENTS
8. The Climate of the Recent Past and Impacts on Human History 229
Climate Proxies 229
Early to Mid-Holocene Climate Change and Human Development 238
The Rise and Fall of Civilizations 246
Key Points in This Chapter 260
CONTENTS • ix
Notes 425
Glossary 453
Bibliography 463
Index 489
PREFACE
The story of this book sets out the scientific basis for our understanding of climate change.
It is divided into four parts, beginning with a description of Earth’s present climate system.
We explain the workings and interactions of the atmosphere and the ocean; how they move
heat around the planet and bring us familiar climate phenomena, such as the El Niño–
Southern Oscillation and the monsoons; and the all-important carbon cycle, which deter-
mines the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere. Part II explores the drivers of climate
change. We define the scientific framework that enables us to systematically think about cli-
mate change—the related concepts of radiation balance and radiation forcing—and inves-
tigate the greenhouse effect and other drivers of climate change. Our knowledge of how the
climate system works today rests, in part, on our knowledge of how it changed in the past.
We therefore also delve into paleoclimate, focusing on the global climate record of the past
2.6 million years. Part III concerns the consequences of climate change. To appreciate how
climate change can affect humanity, we first turn our attention to how humans were affected
by climate change over roughly the past 10,000 years. We then describe climate change as it
has been observed in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and its consequences to date.
All this brings us to the future. Computer models of the climate system help us under-
stand how climate may change in the coming decades and centuries. We therefore begin Part
IV with a description of climate models and their projections of what might come to pass.
No one knows what the future will bring, of course, so we devote some effort to casting cli-
mate as a matter of risk. To deal with an unknown future, humanity invented the concept
of risk, in which cost-benefit analysis provides a basis for rational decision making in the
face of uncertainty. We thus apply the concept of risk in the context of adaptation to climate
change and attempts at mitigation. Among the many aspects of these efforts, it becomes
immediately apparent that of paramount concern is our ability to control emissions from
the burning of fossil fuels and to apply alternative technologies to satisfy the world’s insa-
tiable appetite for energy. This appetite is dominated by one overriding issue: how we are
going to provide for the world’s electricity needs. Because of its centrality to future cli-
mate, we have chosen to focus on this matter in the final chapter of this book, at the same
time recognizing that the production of energy is now (and has been) a rapidly changing
enterprise.
This book found the support of many people. One of the joys of its writing was how
much we learned from each other and from our many colleagues, many of whom are at the
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University. We are also indebted to Kent
Short, Scott Mandia, Dennis Hartmann, Alessandra Grannini, Mingfang Ting, A. Park
Williams, and several anonymous reviewers who suffered through early drafts of the man-
uscript and provided insightful suggestions for its improvement. The content of the book
was also strongly influenced by the innovative legacy of climate courses taught at Columbia
University, and we are grateful to the instructors who shared their support, insights, and
materials over the years. Several colleagues deserve particular mention: Stephanie Pfirman,
Jerry McManus, Yochanan Kushnir, Mark Cane, Ben Cook, Linda Sohl, Steve Cohen, and
Louise Rosen. JES is also grateful to Henry and Lana Pollack, who inspired his transition
into climate science and who remain aspirational examples of effective public communica-
tion and outreach. This book also would not have been possible without the unfailing
P R E FA C E • xiii
enthusiasm and hard work of our editor, Patrick Fitzgerald, and the technical support of
manuscript editor Irene Pavitt and designer Milenda Lee, all of Columbia University Press,
and of Saebyul Choe of the American Museum of Natural History. Finally, none of this
would have been possible without the inspiration, support, and patience of our families.
Edmond A. Mathez
Jason E. Smerdon
Climate Change
Satellite view of Iceland and surrounding waters
Climate is a dynamic “system” that ultimately is driven by the energy of the Sun, but results from the dynamic
interactions among Earth’s atmosphere, ocean, rock, ice, and life—all of which are observable in this photo-
graph. The lighter ocean colors are due to phytoplankton blooms. The image was taken by NASA’s satellite Terra
on June 21, 2004. (J. Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Visible
Earth, https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=71461)
The crescent moon as seen through Earth’s thin upper atmosphere
The atmosphere is the medium of climate. It insulates Earth and keeps it warm, transports heat from the tropics
to the poles and from the surface to the heights, and transfers water from the oceans to land by precipitation. A
crew member of the International Space Station took this photograph from about 360 kilometers (225 miles)
above Earth. The cloud deck is about 6 kilometers (3.7 miles) high. (NASA, Johnson Space Center, https://eol.jsc
.nasa.gov/SearchPhotos/photo.pl?mission=ISS008&roll=E&frame=8951)
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again before many months. All ordered out to be
squadded over again, which was quite a
disappointment to our mess as we were making
preparations for a grand dinner, gotten up by outside
hands, Mustard, Myers, Hendryx and myself.
However, we had our good things for supper instead
of dinner, and it was a big thing, consisting of corn
bread and butter, oysters, coffee, beef, crackers,
cheese &c.; all we could possibly eat or do away
with, and costing the snug little sum of $200
Confederate money, or $20 in greenbacks. Lay
awake long before daylight listening to the bells. As
they rang out Christmas good morning I imagined
they were in Jackson, Michigan, my old home, and
from the spires of the old Presbyterian and Episcopal
churches. Little do they think as they are saying their
Merry Christmases and enjoying themselves so
much, of the hunger and starving here. But there are
better days coming.
Dec. 26.—News of exchange and no officers over
from Libby to issue clothing. Extra quantity of wood.
Rebels all drunk and very domineering. Punish for
the smallest kind of excuse. Some men tunneled out
of the pen but were retaken and were made to crawl
back through the same hole they went out of and the
lieutenant kept hitting them with a board as they went
down and then ran back and forward from one hole
to the other and as they stuck up their heads would
hit them with a club, keeping them at it for nearly an
hour. A large crowd of both rebels and Yankees
collected around to see the fun.
Dec. 27.—Col. Sanderson and Col. Boyd came
over this morning in a great hurry and began to issue
clothing very fast saying an exchange had been
agreed upon and they wanted to get rid of it before
we all went away. Pretty soon the news got inside
and the greatest cheering, yelling, shaking of hands
and congratulating one another took place. Just
before dinner five hundred were taken out, counted
and sent away. Everybody anxious to go away first
which of course they cannot do. Sergts. Hight and
Marks stand at the gate with big clubs keeping order,
letting them out two at a time, occasionally knocking
a man down and it is seldom he gets up again very
soon. Some of the outside went and the rest go to-
morrow. It is a sure thing—a general exchange and
all will be sent away immediately. Everybody in good
spirits. Guess northern folks will be surprised to see
such looking objects come among them. They are
the worst looking crowd I ever saw. Extra ration of
food and wood to-night and am anxiously waiting for
the morrow.
Dec. 28.—For some reason or other no more
being taken away and more despondent than ever.
Very cold.
Dec. 29.—Nearly as cold weather as I ever saw at
the North. All the supplies brought by hand over the
long bridge, owing to the river being frozen over and
not strong enough to hold up. Rebel officers all drunk
during the holidays. Snow an inch deep.
Dec. 30.—No rations issued yesterday to any of
the prisoners and a third of all here are on the very
point of starvation. Lieut. Bossieux sympathizes with
us in word but says it is impossible to help it as they
have not the food for us. This is perhaps true as
regards edibles but there is no excuse for our
receiving such small supplies of wood. They could
give us plenty of shelter, plenty of wood and
conveniences we do not now get if they felt so
disposed.
Dec. 31.—Still very cold and no news encouraging.
Rebels very strict. One prisoner found a brother
among the guards who had been living in the south
for a good many years and lately conscripted into the
Confederate army. New Year’s eve. Man wounded by
the guard shooting, and ball broke his leg. Might
better have shot him dead for he will surely die. Raw
rice and corn bread issued to-day in small quantities.
Richmond Enquirer spoke of the five hundred who
left here day before yesterday and they have
reached Washington.
N E W Y E A R ’ S D AY