Professional Documents
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NVIDIA2024
NVIDIA2024
Other inputs
Do you have employee options outstanding? No
Number of options outstanding = 7.72
Average strike price = $1.29
Average maturity = 7.00
Standard deviation on stock price = 45.00%
Value Drivers for AI Chip business
Current
Total Market $35,000.00
NVIDIA's Market Share 75.00%
Operating margin 35.00%
Default assumptions.
In stable growth, I will assume that your firm will have a cost of capital similar to that of typical mature companies (
Do you want to override this assumption = No
If yes, enter the cost of capital after year 10 = 8.00%
I will assume that your firm will earn a return on capital equal to its cost of capital after year 10. I am assuming tha
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes
If yes, enter the return on capital you expect after year 10 20%
I will assume that your firm has no chance of failure over the foreseeable future.
Do you want to override this assumption = No
If yes, enter the probability of failure = 12%
What do you want to tie your proceeds in failure to? V
Enter the distress proceeds as percentage of book or fair value 50%
I assume that reinvestment in a year translates into growth in the next year, i.e., there is a one year lag between reinv
Do you want override this assumption = No
If yes, enter a different lag (0 = no lag to 3 = lag of 3 years) 2
I will assume that your effective tax rate will adjust to your marginal tax rate by your terminal year. If you override t
Do you want to override this assumption = No
I will assume that you have no losses carried forward from prior years ( NOL) coming into the valuation. If you have
Do you want to override this assumption = No
If yes, enter the NOL that you are carrying over into year 1 $731.40
I will asssume that today's risk free rate will prevail in perpetuity. If you override this assumption, I will change the r
Do you want to override this assumption = No
If yes, enter the riskfree rate after year 10 2.00%
I will assume that the growth rate in perpetuity will be equal to the risk free rate. This allows for both valuation cons
Do you want to override this assumption = No
If yes, enter the growth rate in perpetuity -5.00%
I have assumed that none of the cash is trapped (in foreign countries) and that there is no additional tax liability com
Do you want to override this assumption No
If yes, enter trapped cash (if taxes) or entire balance (if mistrust) $140,000.00
& Average tax rate of the foreign markets where the cash is trapped 15%
Input cell Calculated cell
Important: Before you run this spreadsheet, go into preferences in Excel and check under Calculation options
There should be a check against the iteration box. If there is not, you will get circular reasoning errors.
from your base year below ( in consistent units)
Last year Updated on January 2023 with updated Industry averages and risk premiums
Company
Revenue growth in the most recent year 71.24%
Pre-tax operating margin in the most rece 25.42%
Growth Lever Sales to capital ratio in most recent year 1.25
Profitability Lever Marginal sales to capital ratio = NA
Speed of convergence level Return on invested capital in most recent 11.43%
Efficency of Growth Lever Standard deviation in stock prices =
Cost of capital =
Do not input. Go to cost of capital Valuation Output Feedback (for you to use to fine tune your inputs, if
sheet. Revenues in year 10, based on your revenue growth =
Year 10
$200,000.00
15.00%
40.00%
Many young, growth companies fail, especially if they have trouble raising cash. Many distressed companies fail, be
Tough to estimate but a key input. Use the failure rate worksheet, if necessary.
B: Book value of capital, V= Estimated fair value for the company
This can be zero, if the assets will be worth nothing if the firm fails.
ere is a one year lag between reinvesting and generating growth from that reinvestment.
our terminal year. If you override this assumption, I will leave the tax rate at your effective tax rate.
ming into the valuation. If you have a money losing company, you may want to override tis.
Check the financial statements.
An NOL will shield your income from taxes, even after you start making money.
his assumption, I will change the riskfree rate after year 10.
If yes, you will be asked to enter a normal risk free rate and your growth in perpetuity will be adjusted accordingly.
Enter your estimate of what the riskfree rate (in your currency of choice) will be after year 10
his allows for both valuation consistency and prevents "impossible" growth rates.
This is an option to let you use a negative growth rate in perpetuity or to even liquidate the firm.
This can be negative, if you feel the company will decline (and disappear) after growth is done. If you let it exceed th
re is no additional tax liability coming due and that cash is a neutral asset.
Cash that is trapped in foreign markets (and subject to additoinal tax) or cash that is being discounted by the market
Additional tax rate due on trapped cash or discount being applied to cash balance because of mistrust.
nder Calculation options
easoning errors.
11.37% 11.42%
41.47% 34.38%
10.36% 13.94% 14.88% 15.44% 15.64%
$ 147,806
37.30%
risk free rate after year 10 (see cell B57 & 58), you should incorporate the change into your stable cost of capital estimate.
distressed companies fail, because they have trouble making debt payments.
is done. If you let it exceed the risk free rate, you are on your own in uncharted territory.
eing discounted by the market (because of management mistrust)
ause of mistrust.
st of capital estimate.
Base year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Rest Revenue growth rate 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 24.82% 19.63%
Rest Revenues $ 18,020.00 $23,426.00 $30,453.80 $39,589.94 $51,466.92 $66,907.00 $83,510.64 $99,905.45
EBIT (Operating) m 25.42% 30.00% 37.00% 36.00% 38.00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00%
EBIT (Operating in $ 4,580.30 $ 7,027.80 $11,267.91 $14,252.38 $19,557.43 $26,762.80 $33,404.26 $39,962.18
Tax rate 10.10% 10.10% 10.10% 10.10% 10.10% 10.10% 13.08% 16.06%
EBIT(1-t) $ 4,117.69 $ 6,317.99 $10,129.85 $12,812.89 $17,582.13 $24,059.76 $29,034.98 $33,544.25
- Reinvestment $ 6,111.13 $ 7,944.47 $10,327.81 $13,426.15 $14,437.95 $14,256.36 $12,551.60
FCFF $ 206.86 $ 2,185.38 $ 2,485.08 $ 4,155.98 $ 9,621.81 $14,778.62 $20,992.65
NOL $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Total Market (AI) $ 35,000.00 $58,200.00 $81,400.00 ### ### ### ### ###
Nvidia Market share 75.00% 73.50% 72.00% 70.50% 69.00% 67.50% 66.00% 64.50%
Revenues from AI $ 26,250.00 $42,777.00 $58,608.00 $73,743.00 $88,182.00 ### ### ###
Operating Margin 35.00% 35.00% 37.00% 38.00% 39.00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00%
Operating Income $ 9,187.50 $14,971.95 $21,684.96 $28,022.34 $34,390.98 $40,770.00 $49,051.20 $56,914.80
EBIT (1-t) $ 8,259.56 $13,459.78 $19,494.78 $25,192.08 $30,917.49 $36,652.23 $42,635.30 $47,774.28
- Reinvestment $13,766.09 $13,160.87 $12,555.65 $11,950.43 $18,002.61 $17,094.78 $16,186.96
FCFF (AI) $ (306.30) $ 6,333.91 $12,636.43 $18,967.06 $18,649.62 $25,540.52 $31,587.33
Total Market (Auto) $ 20,000.00 $44,000.00 $68,000.00 $92,000.00 ### ### ### ###
Nvidia Market shar 3.00% 4.20% 5.40% 6.60% 7.80% 9.00% 10.20% 11.40%
Revenues from Aut $ 600.00 $ 1,848.00 $ 3,672.00 $ 6,072.00 $ 9,048.00 $12,600.00 $15,504.00 $18,696.00
Operating Margin 35.00% 30.00% 34.00% 36.00% 38.00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00%
Operating Income $ 210.00 $ 554.40 $ 1,248.48 $ 2,185.92 $ 3,438.24 $ 5,040.00 $ 6,201.60 $ 7,478.40
EBIT (1-t) $ 188.79 $ 498.41 $ 1,122.38 $ 1,965.14 $ 3,090.98 $ 4,530.96 $ 5,390.43 $ 6,277.37
- Reinvestment $ 1,586.09 $ 2,086.96 $ 2,587.83 $ 3,088.70 $ 2,525.22 $ 2,775.65 $ 3,026.09
FCFF (AI) $ (1,087.68) $ (964.57) $ (622.68) $ 2.28 $ 2,005.74 $ 2,614.78 $ 3,251.28
Implied variables
Sales to capital ratio 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15
Invested capital $ 36,029 $ 57,493 $ 80,685 $ 106,156 $ 134,622 $ 169,587 $ 203,714 $ 235,479
ROIC 34.88% 56.28% 53.48% 49.54% 48.60% 48.46% 45.44% 43.00%
8 9 10 Terminal year
Terminal Value
14.45% 9.26% 4.08% 4.08%
### ### ### ###
40.00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00%
$45,735.91 $49,972.89 $52,011.78 $54,133.86
19.04% 22.02% 25.00% 25.00%
$37,027.80 $38,968.86 $39,008.84 $40,600.40
$ 9,210.82 $ 4,432.38 $ 4,613.22 $ 8,282.48
$27,816.98 $34,536.48 $34,395.62 $32,317.92 ###
$ - $ - $ - $ -
After year 10
1.15 1.15 1.15
$ 263,245 $ 285,576 $ 298,172
40.90% 39.02% 37.30% Err:508
Nvidia
The Opportunistic Chip Maker
NVIDIA has a history of innovation and opportunism in the chip business, often investing ahead of large trends in de
gaming and now in AI and auto. Its early entry into the AI chip business will allow it to dominate this business, as it
though competition will eat into its market share. In the auto chip business, NVidia will grow to gain a significant, a
share as that market grows. Across all of its busineses, NVIDIA will see improvement in operating margins, while re
acquisitions at industry-levels.
The Assumptions
Base year Next year Years 2-5 Years 6-10
Nvidia
Risk Story
Initial cost of capital set
equal to semiconductor
industry average, for first
5 years, moving towards
average for entire market
over time. Dependence on
up your cost of capital and other details that you think flesh out your company's valuation sto
Nvidia
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
### ### $ 66,907 ### ### $ 114,340 ### $130,029
### ### $ 101,925 ### ### $ 160,902 ### $195,000
### ### $ 12,600 ### ### $ 22,176 ### $ 30,000
### ### $ 181,432 ### ### $ 297,418 ### $355,029
36.00% 38.00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00%
### ### $ 72,573 ### ### $ 118,967 ### $142,012
### ### $ 65,243 ### ### $ 96,316 ### $106,509
### ### $ 34,966 ### ### $ 27,766 ### $ 12,596
### ### $ 30,277 ### ### $ 68,549 ### $ 93,913
###
Feb-24
Terminal Value
Growth Rate 4.08%
Cost of capital 8.58%
Return on capit ###
Reinvestment ###
Terminal year
$ 135,335
$ 202,956
$ 31,224
$ 369,515
40.00%
$ 147,806
$ 110,854
$ 22,614
$ 88,240
20.00%
51.66% 32.24%
Year 5 Year 10
$ 181,432.00 $ 355,029.46
Year 5 Year 10
40.00% 40.00%
Year 5 Year 10
1.15 1.15
1. What are the margins of the industry that the company is in?
2. What are the unit economics of the business? (How much
does it cost you to make the extra unit that you sell?
3. What does the competition in this business look like?
1. is the growth that you are forecasting bounce-back growth or new growth?
2. How much excess capacity do you have to service near term growth?
3. Does investment efficiency in this business change as companies get bigger?
d1 = 6.1006
N (d1) = 1.0000
d2 = 4.9074
N (d2) = 1.0000
7.72
2,470
4.08%
0.2025
0.00%
4.08%
Operating Lease Converter
The yellow cells are input cells. Please enter them.
Inputs Until 2019, this worksheet had to be used for every fir
Operating lease expense in current year = $ 295.00 with operating lease commitments, since accountants
Operating Lease Commitments (From footnote to financials) treated operating lease expenses as operating expenses
Year Commitment! Year 1 is next year, …. 2019, IFRS and GAAP made the long-overdue change
treat leases as debt, and for firms that follow these
1 287.0
standards, the conversion that I am doing on this
2 235.0 spreadsheet is being done by accountants, with lease d
3 194.0 and operating income already adjusted. If that is the ca
4 151.0 and you showed the lease debt as part of debt in the in
5 98.0 page, please do not use this spreadsheet, since you wil
6 and beyond 605 double counting.
Output
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 5.50% ! If you do not have a cost of debt, use the synthetic rating estimator
Number of years embedded in yr 6 e 3 ! I use the average lease expense over the first five years
to estimate the number of years of expenses in yr 6
Converting Operating Leases into debt
Year Commitment Present Value
1 $ 287.00 $ 272.04
2 $ 235.00 $ 211.14
3 $ 194.00 $ 165.21
4 $ 151.00 $ 121.89
5 $ 98.00 $ 74.98
6 and beyon $ 201.67 $ 416.30 ! Commitment beyond year 6 converted into an annuity for ten years
Debt Value of leases = $1,261.56
Restated Financials
Depreciation on Operating Lease Asset = $ 157.69 ! I use straight line depreciation
Adjustment to Operating Earnings = $137.31 ! Add this amount to pre-tax operating income
Adjustment to Total Debt outstanding = $1,261.56 ! Add this amount to debt
Adjustment to Depreciation = $157.69
heet had to be used for every firm
ommitments, since accountants
expenses as operating expenses. In
P made the long-overdue change to
d for firms that follow these
on that I am doing on this
one by accountants, with lease debt
already adjusted. If that is the case,
ase debt as part of debt in the input
e this spreadsheet, since you will be
If you have negative operating income, this spreadsheet will offer you a D rating. Do n
use that rating as your cost of debt for a going concern. Insread give your company a
but going concern rating like BB and use that cost of debt.
If you want to update the spreads listed below, please visit http://www.bondsonline.c
For large manufacturing firms De
If interest coverage ratio is Rating
> ≤ to Rating isSpread is AAA
-1E+05 0.2 D2/D 20.00% AA
0.2 0.65 C2/C 17.50% A
0.65 0.8 Ca2/CC 15.78% BBB
0.8 1.25 Caa/CCC11.57% BB
1.25 1.5 B3/B- 7.37% B
1.5 1.75 B2/B 5.26% CCC/C
1.75 2 B1/B+ 4.55%
2 2.25 Ba2/BB 3.13%
2.25 2.5 Ba1/BB+ 2.42%
2.5 3 Baa2/BBB2.00%
3 4.25 A3/A- 1.62%
4.25 5.5 A2/A 1.42%
5.5 6.5 A1/A+ 1.23%
6.5 8.5 Aa2/AA 0.85%
8.50 100000Aaa/AAA 0.69%
e this spreadsheet.
nder calculation options in excel) is checked.
ww.bondsonline.com
Default Probabilities over time (1 - 10 year time horizons)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0.00% 0.03% 0.13% 0.24% 0.35% 0.45% 0.51% 0.59% 0.64% 0.70%
0.02% 0.06% 0.12% 0.21% 0.31% 0.42% 0.50% 0.58% 0.65% 0.72%
0.05% 0.14% 0.23% 0.35% 0.47% 0.62% 0.79% 0.93% 1.08% 1.24%
0.16% 0.45% 0.78% 1.17% 1.58% 1.98% 2.33% 2.67% 3.00% 3.32%
0.61% 1.92% 3.48% 5.05% 6.52% 7.85% 9.01% 10.04% 10.97% 11.78%
3.33% 7.71% 11.55% 14.58% 16.93% 18.83% 20.36% 21.60% 22.70% 23.74%
27.08% 36.64% 41.41% 44.10% 46.19% 47.09% 48.26% 49.05% 49.76% 50.38%
R & D Converter
This spreadsheet converts R&D expenses from operating to capital expenses. It makes the appropriat
income, the book value of assets and the book value of equity.
Inputs
Over how many years do you want to amortiz 5 ! If in doubt, use the lookup table below
Enter the current year's R&D expense = ### The maximum allowed is ten years
Enter R& D expenses for past years: the number of years that you will need to enter will be determined
Do not input numbers in the first column (Year). It will get automatically updated based on the input a
YearR& D Expenses
-1 7339.00 ! Year -1 is the year prior to the current year
-2 5268.00 ! Year -2 is the two years prior to the current year
-3 3924.00
-4 2829.00
-5 2376.00
0
0
0
0
0
Output
Year R&D Expense
Unamortized portionAmortization this year
Current 7596.00 1.00 7596.00
-1 7339.00 0.80 5871.20 ###
-2 5268.00 0.60 3160.80 ###
-3 3924.00 0.40 1569.60 $ 784.80
-4 2829.00 0.20 565.80 $ 565.80
-5 2376.00 0.00 0.00 $ 475.20
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
Value of Research Asset = ### ###
Adjustment to Operating I ### ! A positive number indicates an increase in operating income (ad
Tax Effect of R&D Expensing $812
makes the appropriate adjustments to operating income, net
up table below
Debt
Book Value of Straight Debt = $ 11,027.00
Interest Expense on Debt = $ 258.00
Average Maturity = 3
Approach for estimating pre-tax cost of debt Actual rating
If direct input, input the pre-tax cost of debt 4.000%
If actual rating, input the rating A2/A
If synethetic rating, input the type of compan 2
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 5.50%
Tax Rate = 25%
Preferred Stock
Number of Preferred Shares = 0
Current Market Price per Share= 70
Annual Dividend per Share = 5
Output
Estimating Market Value of Straight Debt = $ 10,086.81
Estimated Value of Straight Debt in Convertible = $ -
Value of Debt in Operating leases = $ -
Estimated Value of Equity in Convertible = $ -
Levered Beta for equity = 1.47
Approach 2: industry average cost of capital, adjusted for riskfre rate differences
Industry Single Business(US)
Cost of capital, adjusted for riskfree rate differenc 10.56%
Region First Decile First Quartile Median Third Quartile Ninth Decile
Emerging 6.45% 7.51% 8.82% 10.02% 11.85%
Europe 7.12% 8.26% 9.48% 10.95% 12.85%
Global 5.40% 6.53% 8.11% 9.07% 9.82%
Japan 6.68% 7.66% 8.82% 9.67% 10.91%
US 6.43% 7.75% 8.60% 8.84% 9.37%
These costs of capital are all in US dollars and reflect the US dollar riskfree rate at the start of the year. Once you make your
choice, though, I will adjust the rate by the difference in riskfree rates, effectively converting currency and bringing it up to date.
ts (beta, equity risk premium, default spread) or enter them directly. If you choose to use the built in ERP
the start of the year numbers).
Thus, if you use the 10-year likelihood of failure, the chance of failure for a BB rated firm is 11.78%.
Factors to consider
1. The likelihood of failure decreases for larger firms.
2. The likelihood of failure decreases with access to capital, and is thus lower for pub
3. The likelihood of failure decreases as revenue growth increases, since hope for futu
4. The likelihood of failure decreases with better unit economics, higher gross margin
10
0.70%
0.72%
1.24%
3.32%
11.78%
23.74%
50.38%
ed firm is 11.78%.
s thus lower for publicly traded firms or firms with multiple high profile VCs
s, since hope for future growth will sustain the firm.
higher gross margins on the additional units sold
eau of Labor Statistics (2022)
Transportation
Information
Health Care
All Sectors
76.90% 75.20% 81.40% 78.30%
63.60% 62.70% 72.20% 66.20%
52.30% 53.30% 67.40% 56.60%
45.00% 46.40% 61.30% 49.80%
41.10% 41.90% 55.90% 45.40%
37.70% 37.20% 54.80% 42.30%
34.90% 34.00% 52.90% 39.60%
32.40% 31.40% 48.40% 37.10%
30.50% 27.40% 45.50% 34.80%
28.40% 25.50% 42.50% 32.80%
Revenue Pre-Tax Pre-Tax
Year Revenues Growth Operating Operating NOL
Rate Margin Income
Traling 12 month $18,020.00 25.42% $ 4,580.30 $ -
1 $23,426.00 30.00% 30.00% $ 7,027.80 $ -
2 $30,453.80 30.00% 37.00% $ 11,267.91 $ -
3 $39,589.94 30.00% 36.00% $ 14,252.38 $ -
4 $51,466.92 30.00% 38.00% $ 19,557.43 $ -
5 $66,907.00 30.00% 40.00% $ 26,762.80 $ -
6 $83,510.64 24.82% 40.00% $ 33,404.26 $ -
7 $99,905.45 19.63% 40.00% $ 39,962.18 $ -
8 ### 14.45% 40.00% $ 45,735.91 $ -
9 ### 9.26% 40.00% $ 49,972.89 $ -
10 ### 4.08% 40.00% $ 52,011.78 $ -
After-Tax
Change in Sales to
Year Operating Reinvestment FCFF
Revenues Capital
Income
Traling 12 month $ 4,117.69
1 $ 6,317.99 $5,406.00 1.15 $ 4,700.87 $ 1,617.12
2 $10,129.85 $7,027.80 1.15 $ 6,111.13 $ 4,018.72
3 $12,812.89 $9,136.14 1.15 $ 7,944.47 $ 4,868.42
4 $17,582.13 ### 1.15 $ 10,327.81 $ 7,254.32
5 $24,059.76 ### 1.15 $ 13,426.15 $ 10,633.60
6 $29,034.98 ### 1.15 $ 14,437.95 $ 14,597.03
7 $33,544.25 ### 1.15 $ 14,256.36 $ 19,287.90
8 $37,027.80 ### 1.15 $ 12,551.60 $ 24,476.20
9 $38,968.86 ### 1.15 $ 9,210.82 $ 29,758.04
10 $39,008.84 $5,097.23 1.15 $ 4,432.38 $ 34,576.46
Cumulated
Cost of
Year Cost of FCFF Terminal Value Present Value
Capital
Capital
1 Err:509 Err:509 $ 1,617.12 Err:509
2 Err:509 Err:509 $ 4,018.72 Err:509
3 Err:509 Err:509 $ 4,868.42 Err:509
4 Err:509 Err:509 $ 7,254.32 Err:509
5 Err:509 Err:509 $ 10,633.60 Err:509
6 Err:509 Err:509 $ 14,597.03 Err:509
7 Err:509 Err:509 $ 19,287.90 Err:509
8 Err:509 Err:509 $ 24,476.20 Err:509
9 Err:509 Err:509 $ 29,758.04 Err:509
10 Err:509 Err:509 $ 34,576.46 $ 81,485.11 Err:509
Value of operating assets = Err:509
After-Tax
Taxes Operating
Income
$ 462.61 $4,117.69
$ 709.81 $6,317.99
$1,138.06 ###
$1,439.49 ###
$1,975.30 ###
$2,703.04 ###
$4,369.28 ###
$6,417.93 ###
$8,708.12 ###
### ###
### ###
Capital Implied
Invested ROC
### 11.43%
### 15.51%
### 21.63%
### 23.39%
### 27.00%
### 30.63%
### 31.23%
### 31.28%
### 30.91%
### 30.21%
### 29.24%
Cost of
Debt Ratio
Capital
Err:509
Err:509
Err:509
Err:509
Err:509
Err:509
Err:509
Err:509
Err:509
Err:509
Mature Market ERP + 4.50% Updated June 1, 2023
Changing this number will update all your country equity risk premiums.
$75,872.00
$2,404.00
$24,171.00
$276.00
G&A 630.29 286.14 426.61 770.76
Marketing Costs 2369.47 1128.78 1219.73 2460.42
Content Costs 9967.54 4703.01 5876.21 11140.74