Section 8.
2
Distribution of the
Sample
Proportion
Objectives
1. Describe the sampling distribution of a
sample proportion
2. Compute probabilities of a sample proportion
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Objective 1
• Describe the Sampling Distribution of a
Sample Proportion
8-3
Point Estimate of a Population
Proportion
Suppose that a random sample of size n is obtained
from a population in which each individual either
does or does not have a certain characteristic. The
sample proportion, denoted (read “p-hat”) is
given by
where x is the number of individuals in the sample
with the specified characteristic. The sample
proportion is a statistic that estimates the
population proportion, p.
8-4
Parallel Example 1: Computing a Sample Proportion
In a University Poll conducted in May of 2008,
1745 registered voters nationwide were asked
whether they approved of the way the president is
handling the economy. 349 responded “yes”.
Obtain a point estimate for the proportion of
registered voters who approve of the way president
is handling the economy.
Solution:
8-5
Parallel Example 2: Using Simulation to Describe the
Distribution of the Sample Proportion
According to a Time poll conducted in June of
2008, 42% of registered voters believed that a
death penalty should be abolished.
Describe the sampling distribution of the sample
proportion for samples of size n = 10, 50, 100.
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8-8
8-9
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Key Points from Example 2
• Shape: As the size of the sample, n, increases,
the shape of the sampling distribution of the
sample proportion becomes approximately
normal.
• Center: The mean of the sampling distribution
of the sample proportion equals the population
proportion, p.
• Spread: The standard deviation of the
sampling distribution of the sample proportion
decreases as the sample size, n, increases.
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Sampling Distribution of
For a simple random sample of size n with
population proportion p:
• The shape of the sampling distribution of is
approximately normal provided np(1 – p) ≥ 10.
• The mean of the sampling distribution of is
• The standard deviation of the sampling distribution
of is
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Sampling Distribution of
• The model on the previous slide requires that the
sampled values are independent. When sampling
from finite populations, this assumption is verified
by checking that the sample size n is no more than
5% of the population size N (n ≤ 0.05N).
• Regardless of whether np(1 – p) ≥ 10 or not, the
mean of the sampling distribution of is p, and
the standard deviation is
8-13
Parallel Example 3: Describing the Sampling Distribution of
the Sample Proportion
According to a Time poll conducted in June of 2008,
42% of registered voters believed that death penalty
should be abolished. Suppose that we obtain a
simple random sample of 50 voters and determine
which voters believe that death penalty should be
abolished. Describe the sampling distribution of the
sample proportion for registered voters who believe
that death penalty should be abolished.
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Solution
The sample of n = 50 is smaller than 5% of the
population size (all registered voters in the U.S.).
Also, np(1 – p) = 50(0.42)(0.58) = 12.18 ≥ 10.
The sampling distribution of the sample proportion
is therefore approximately normal with mean=0.42
and standard deviation =
(Note: this is very close to the standard deviation of 0.072 found
using simulation in Example 2.)
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Objective 2
• Compute Probabilities of a Sample Proportion
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Parallel Example 4: Compute Probabilities of a Sample
Proportion
According to the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, 18.8% of school-aged children, aged 6-11 years,
were overweight in 2004.
(a)In a random sample of 90 school-aged children, aged 6-
11 years, what is the probability that at least 19% are
overweight?
(b)Suppose a random sample of 90 school-aged children,
aged 6-11 years, results in 24 overweight children. What
might you conclude?
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Solution
• n = 90 is less than 5% of the population size
• np(1 – p) = 90(.188)(1 – .188) ≈ 13.7 ≥ 10
• is approximately normal with mean=0.188 and
standard deviation =
(a) In a random sample of 90 school-aged children, aged
6-11 years, what is the probability that at least 19%
are overweight?
, P(Z > 0.05)=1 –
0.5199=0.4801
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Solution
• is approximately normal with mean = 0.188 and
standard deviation = 0.0412
(b) Suppose a random sample of 90 school-aged
children, aged 6-11 years, results in 24 overweight
children. What might you conclude?
P(Z > 1.91) = 1 – 0.9719 = 0.028.
We would only expect to see about 3 samples in 100
resulting in a sample proportion of 0.2667 or more.
This is an unusual sample if the true population
proportion is 0.188.
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