Energy &

Climate
2024-25
Joana Portugal Pereira, professor
DEM/IST/ULisboa
([Link]@[Link])

Energy & Sustainability I P2 2024/25

 Lecture IV
Energy and Climate: Trends of Global Emissions
Trends Across Regions (G20 Countries) and Key
Drivers
Intended Learning Objectives
o Recognise the human influence on natural Earth’s energy balance and the role of greenhouse
gases (GHG) on global warming (ILO1)

oUnderstand the global distribution of GHG emissions and the role of the G20 countries in
shaping climate outcomes (ILO2)

o Analyse sector-specific emissions trends and identify high-emission sectors (ILO3)

o Discuss the main drivers of emissions in key sectors such as energy, transportation, industry,
buildings, agriculture and forestry (ILO4)
3
 Today’s agenda

Brief introduction to climate GHG emissions in G20 countries Key sectors and drivers
science

Source of images: [Link] 4

Questions for today
o Which are the main human-induced greenhouse gases and how are they affecting the Earth’s
energy balance?

o What are the spatial and temporal patterns of greenhouse gas emissions globally, and how
do the G20 countries influence global climate outcomes through their emissions profiles?

o Which sectors exhibit the highest emissions trends globally, and what are the primary
factors driving sector-specific emissions across energy, transportation, industry, buildings,
agriculture, and forestry?

5
Questions for today
o Which are the main human-induced greenhouse gases and how are they affecting the
Earth’s energy balance?

o What are the spatial and temporal patterns of greenhouse gas emissions globally, and how do
the G20 countries influence global climate outcomes through their emissions profiles?

o Which sectors exhibit the highest emissions trends globally, and what are the primary factors
driving sector-specific emissions across energy, transportation, industry, buildings, agriculture,
and forestry?

6
(Brief) revision on science of climate change
• Approximately 340 W/m2 of solar
energy in short wavelengths (visible
and ultraviolet) reach the Earth’s
atmosphere:
• 2/3 is absorbed by Earth’s surface and
atmosphere (land, oceans, atmosphere)
• 1/3 is reflected back to space as longer-
wavelength infrared radiation (clouds,
atmospheric particles, earth surface –
albedo effect)
• This is a natural process and enables
life on Earth by maintaining average
temperature at ~15◦C
7
Source : NASA, 2009, after Kiehl & Trenberth 1997.
GHG are trace gases in the atmophere

Trace gases,
0.1%

8
Source: Own elaboration based on IPCC (2021).
Characteristics of the 6-Kyoyo GHG gases vary in terms of
warming potential and lifetime in the atmosphere
Greenhouse gases Concentration Global Warming Atmospheric
(GHG) Potential (GWP) Lifetime
(100 yr) (AR6) (years)
CO2 418±0.2 ppm 1 -

CH4 1923±2 ppb 28 12

N2O 336±0.1 ppb 273 109
CFCs < 1 ppb ~5 000 - 10 000 100
HCFCs and HFCs < 100 ppt ~1 700 12-100
SF6 < 8 ppt 23,900 800–3,200

Source: WMO, 2023; IPCC WG I Ch7 SM, 2021. 9

Contribution of effective radiative forcing and global surface
temperature change from GHG emissions between 1750 and 2019

Source: IPCC AR6 WG I TS, 2021. 10

 GHGs are aggregated as CO2 equivalent and there are different
metrics to estimate it depending on the modelling approaches

“The most appropriate metric and time horizon will depend on which aspects of climate change are considered most important to a particular application. No single
metric can accurately compare all consequences of different emissions, and all have limitations and uncertainties.” (IPCC WG I ch8, 2013) 11
GWP and GTP are based on pulses of different gases

GWP → How much heat is trapped

over time.
GTP → How much the temperature
changes at a specific time.

12
Global Warming versus Global Temperature potentials of
methane emissions
GWP GTP
Change in global
Radiative Forcing
mean surface
(amount of heat trapped)
Characteristics temperature
Integrated over the entire Results at the final point
GWP GTP
time horizon of the time horizon

Lower uncertainty than Horizonte

20 50 100 500 20 50 100 500
metrics measuring end- temporal
More appropriate for
point indicators
Advantages assessing goals at the CH4 83,6 48,1 28,6 8,4 68,6 14,1 4,5 1,8

More suitable for end of a period

economic analyses N 2O 263,1 274,9 264,6 131,9 277,1 280,8 233,7 44,2

Sensitive to the chosen Does not account for Source: Own elaboration based on Tanaka et al. (2021) and IPCC WG I AR6 (2021)
time horizon possible temperature
Disadvantages
Does not evaluate peaks over the period
temperature change Greater uncertainty
13
Global Warming Potential versus Global Temperature
Potential of methane emissions in different timeframes

Source: Balcome et al 2018. 14

But no matter how you measure it, global warming is
already affecting all regions on Earth

o The 20 warmest years ever recorded have occurred since

2000 (with 2021, 2022, 2023, and now 2024 seemingly
being the hottest of all).
o The summer of 2023 was the hottest in the last 2,000 years.
(Hegerl & Taylor 2024)
o Arctic winter ice is at its lowest recorded level.
o Temperature rise: changes in precipitation, reduced snow
accumulation, glacier melt, droughts in mid- to low-latitude
regions, reduced cereal productivity in low-latitude areas,
sea level rise, loss of islands and coastal areas, increased
flooding, stronger storms, species loss, spread of infectious
diseases.
o Climate models have not predicted such fast climate change
impacts
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Fate of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (2014-23)
Sources = Sinks
19.2 GtCO2/yr
35.6 GtCO2/yr
48%
90%
29%
11.7 GtCO2/yr

10%
4.1 GtCO2/yr
26%
10.5 GtCO2/yr

Budget Imbalance: 4%
(the difference between estimated sources & sinks) -1.6 GtCO2/yr
16
Source: Global Carbon Budget 2024
Global Fossil CO2 Emissions

Global fossil CO2 emissions: 37.0 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2023, 66% over 1990
Projection for 2024: 37.4 ± 2 GtCO2, 0.8% [-0.3% to +1.9%] higher than 2023

Uncertainty is ±5% for

one standard deviation
(IPCC “likely” range)

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Source: Friedlingstein et al 2024; Global Carbon Project 2024
 Fossil CO2 emission intensity
Global CO2 emissions growth has generally resumed quickly from global crises.
Emission intensity has steadily declined but not sufficiently to offset economic growth.

Each trend line is based on the five years before the crisis and extended to five years after.
Economic activity is measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms in 2017 US dollars.
Source: Friedlingstein et al 2024; Global Carbon Project 2024 18
 Land-use change emissions
Land use change emissions are 4.1 ± 2.6 GtCO2 per year for 2014–2023, and show a negative trend in the last two decades,
but estimates are still highly uncertain. Projection for 2024: 4.2 ± 2.6 GtCO2

Indonesian
fires

Estimates from four bookkeeping models

Source: Friedlingstein et al 2024; Global Carbon Project 2024 19
 Global carbon budget

Fossil emissions dominate in the Northern Hemisphere, while land-use emissions are important in the tropics.
The North Atlantic and Southern Ocean are carbon sinks while the tropical ocean is a source of CO2.
Tropical, temperate and boreal forest are (still) main terrestrial carbon sinks.

CO2 Sink CO2 Source

CO2 Source CO2 Sink CO2 Source CO2 Sink

20
Source: Friedlingstein et al 2024; Global Carbon Project 2024
Questions for today
o Which are the main human-induced greenhouse gases and how are they affecting the Earth’s energy
balance?

o What are the spatial and temporal patterns of greenhouse gas emissions globally, and how do
the G20 countries influence global climate outcomes through their emissions profiles?

o Which sectors exhibit the highest emissions trends globally, and what are the primary factors driving
sector-specific emissions across energy, transportation, industry, buildings, agriculture, and forestry?

21
Global GHG emissions reached a record high of
57.1 GtCO2e in 2023, growing by 1.3% from last year

7% 25%

68%

22
Source: UNEP EGR Ch2 2024
Largest GHG emitters show very different trends and
profiles
A C

F G

D E

23
Source: UNEP EGR Ch2 2024
Largest GHG emitters show very different trends and
profiles

24
Source: UNEP EGR Ch2 2024
 Historic GHG emissions tell us a different story
The USA and EU have the highest accumulated fossil CO2 emissions since 1850, but China is a close third.

Calculated using territorial emissions.

Source: Friedlingstein et al 2024; Global Carbon Project 2024 26
Per capita GHG emissions tell us a different story

27
Source: Blobal Carbon Project, 2024
Wealthy households contribute nearly half of
consumption-based emissions worldwide

28
Overview of alternative ranks to assess the GHG contribution of each country

29
Source: IPCC AR6 WG III Ch2, 2022.
 Changes in regional GHG
emissions for multiple
perspectives

30
Source: IPCC AR6 WG III Ch2, 2022.
Top emitter by fuel type

31
Source: GCP 2024
Fossil CO2 emissions — Kaya decomposition

• ​Where:
• E = Total CO₂ emissions
• P = Population
• GDP/P = GDP per capita (a measure of economic activity per person)
• E/GDP = Energy intensity (energy needed per unit of GDP)
• CO2/E = Carbon intensity of energy (CO₂ emissions per unit of energy consumed,
indicating the carbon footprint of the energy mix)
32
 Fossil CO2 emissions — Kaya decomposition

Globally, decarbonisation and declines in energy per GDP are largely responsible for the reduced growth rate in
emissions over the last decade. 2020 was a clear outlier with a sharp decline in GDP.

Source: Friedlingstein et al 2024; Global Carbon Project 2024 33

Questions for today
o Which are the main human-induced greenhouse gases and how are they affecting the Earth’s
energy balance?

o What are the spatial and temporal patterns of greenhouse gas emissions globally, and how do
the G20 countries influence global climate outcomes through their emissions profiles?

o Which sectors exhibit the highest emissions trends globally, and what are the primary
factors driving sector-specific emissions across energy, transportation, industry,
buildings, agriculture, and forestry?

35
Global emissions by sectors on a
production basis
• The power sector is the largest global
contributor to GHG emissions at 15.1 GtCO e, 2

followed by transport (8.4 GtCO e), agriculture 2

(6.5 GtCO e) and industry (6.5 GtCO e).

2 2

36
Source: IPCC AR6 WG III Ch2, 2022; UNEP EGR2024.
Sectoral drivers: fossil fuels still domain the energy and
industry profiles

37
Source: UNEP EGR2024.
Discussion & Reflection

• What are the greatest challenges

faced by G20 countries in
emissions reductions?

• How can sector-specific strategies

be improved?

46
 Take-away messages
1. Human-induced GHG significantly alter the Earth's energy balance by trapping and already contributed to a
global warming of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
2. The G20 countries collectively account for the ~80% of global GHG emissions due to their economic scale and
industrial activities. Their emissions profiles and climate policies are pivotal in determining global climate
outcomes and achieving international climate goals.
3. Global GHG emissions show marked spatial and temporal variations, with emerging economies contributing to
recent growth, while developed countries present the highest historical emissions.
4. The energy sector remains the largest contributor to global emissions, followed by transportation, industry,
buildings, agriculture, and forestry. Each sector has unique emissions drivers, such as fossil fuel dependence,
land use changes, and industrial processes, highlighting the need for tailored mitigation strategies.
5. While some regions have made significant progress in reducing emissions and increasing renewable energy
adoption, others face challenges due to economic and technological barriers. Accelerating the global
transition to low-carbon economies requires addressing these disparities and strengthening international
47
cooperation (next class!)
Any
questions?

48
48
Thanks!
2024-25
Joana Portugal Pereira, professor
DEM/IST/ULisboa
([Link]@[Link])

Energy & Sustainability I P2 2024/25