Understanding Energy as a System

Driving Modern Society: summary

Alice Bows-Larkin

Mechanical, Civil and Aerospace Engineering

Sustainable Consumption Institute &
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
 Aims

1) To summarise content
1) To highlight key aspects of the module
2) To join the dots between lectures
3) To discuss the relevance of energy systems and low-
carbon transitions
4) Q&A on coursework
 Module Diagram

Introduction
Wider context Energy as a system Energy demand & supply
Climate Supply
Science Land food technologies
energy nexus
Socio-
Scale of the economic
climate challenge Geographical
context barriers
Sustainability Demand & people
Low carbon
Policy issues transitions Transport

Energy system modelling: designing geographic-specific low carbon transitions

Climate
Science
Energy In: Incoming solar radiation = So (solar constant) x Area (A)

Incoming solar radiation = 1370 re2

Energy Out: Terrestrial out = TE4 4re2 Stefan Boltzmann Law

Incident solar radiation on

earth is equivalent to the
Surface area of Earth = 4πre2
area of Earth normal to
Solar Radiation so A = πre2
 Balancing incoming and outgoing radiation

(1-Rp) x 1370 re2= Te4 4re2

((1-Rp) x 1370)/ 4 = Te4

Te= [(0.7 x 1370)/ 4]1/4

Te = 255K (-18°C)
is the equivalent blackbody temperature of the Earth
The Met.Office Hadley Centre
Greenhouse effect
Solar radiation
high temp’ source
Short Waves SPACE
Some of the infrared
radiation is absorbed
SUN and re-emitted by the
greenhouse gases.
Some solar radiation is
reflected by the earth’s
surface, clouds and the atmosphere This warms the surface
and the atmosphere

Some solar radiation is

absorbed by clouds
and other gases
ATMOSPHERE
Terrestrial radiation
low temperature source
Long Waves

Most solar radiation

Passes straight through
the atmosphere

and is absorbed to EARTH

warm the surface
 Radiation
Different gases absorb radiation at different points within
the atmosphere – ‘greenhouse gases’
Main gases are water vapour (H2O), carbon dioxide
(CO2), ozone (O3), methane (CH4), Chloro flouro Carbons
(CFCs), Hydro flouro carbons (HFCs) , nitrous oxide
(N2O), Sulphur Hexoflouride (SF6)
without with mean
Greenhouse Greenhouse Increase
Surface
temperature o
-18 C o
+15 C o
33 C
Anthropogenic climate change

Concentration of
greenhouse gases
measured in parts
per million (ppmv) or
parts per billion
(ppbv)
 Evidence

CO2 concentration has increased by 39% since 1750 - 280ppmv to

390ppmv
The current CO2 concentration has not been exceeded during past
420,000yrs and…probably not during the past 20 million years
2013:
Evidence for being man made: CO2 from fossil fuels contains no 14C
- unlike the ‘background’ atmospheric
 2°C?
Widespread mortality of corals
Increased risks of extreme weather events
Increased water stress, wildfire frequency and floods
Hundreds of millions of people suffering coastal flooding
Reductions in water supplies
‘Dangerous Interference with the Climate System’
 0 °C 1.0 °C 2.0 °C 3.0 °C 4.0 °C 5.0 °C
0 °F
IPCC AR4 1.8 °F 3.6 °F 5.4 °F 7.2 °F 9.0 °F
Scale of the
challenge
 Translating temperature targets into policy-
relevant emission reductions
Temperature threshold
Science/modelling

Greenhouse gas concentration

Science/modelling

Global cumulative emission budget

Apportionment regime

National cumulative emissions budget

Current emissions

National emissions pathway

Anderson & Bows, A response to the draft climate change bill’s carbon reduction target, Tyndall Briefing note, March 2007
 Illustrative pathway for a CO2e budget

A
Annual CO2e emissions

Trajectory becomes steeper

Emissions already
released

2050 target
shifts

A=B for same climate impact B

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Why are there different interpretations of
avoiding 2°C?
 The probability of exceeding 2°C

750-1500GtCO2
from 2000-2050
for a >50%
2012
chance

Already released
450GtCO2

M Meinshausen et al. Nature 458, 1158-1162 (2009) doi:10.1038/nature08017

 Society and Economics
Economic growth strongly linked to greenhouse gas growth
Considered ‘good’ – a western or global view?
Is continued economic growth for all sustainable?
Economics underpins much of climate policy
Tools such as Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are
key example
Underpinned by neo-classical economics – and modelling
that helped deliver the financial crisis
Difficult to reconcile >3% cuts in CO2 with economic growth
Sustainability
Many definitions of Sustainable Development
but the most cited remains:

“…development that meets the needs of the

present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs.”
Our Common Future (Brundtland report 1987)
What is unsustainable about CO2 emissions?
 Global CO2 emission trends

~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs

~ 3.5% p.a. 2000-2007
~ 5.9% 2009-2010
~ 3.2 % 2010-2011
 Thinking of this in relation to energy and carbon emissions

Kaya identity

Total CO2 =
Economic consumption per person X
Energy use per unit of consumption X
CO2 emitted per unit of energy use X
Population

Total CO2 = GDP/capita x Energy/GDP x CO2/Energy x Population

Climate
Policy
The UNFCCC timeline
•1979 — The first World Climate Conference (WCC) takes place.
•1988 — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is set up.
•1990 — IPCC’s first assessment report released. IPCC and second World Climate Conference call
for a global treaty on climate change.
•1992 — At the Earth Summit in Rio, the UNFCCC is opened for signature along with its sister Rio
Conventions, UNCBD and UNCCD.
•1995 — The first Conference of the Parties (COP 1) takes place in Berlin.
•1997 — Kyoto Protocol formally adopted in December at COP3.
•2000 – Collapse of Hague negotiations, US declares no intention to ratify, treaty
is dubbed ‘unfair to America’
•2001 — Marrakesh Accords detailing the KP procedures.
•2005 — Entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol. The first Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto
Protocol (MOP 1) takes place in Montreal.
•2007 — IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report released (AR4). At COP13, Parties agreed on the Bali
Road Map, which charted the way towards a post-2012
•2008 – Kyoto Commitment Period begins.
•2009 — Copenhagen Accord drafted at COP15 in Copenhagen. This was taken note of by the
COP. Countries later submitted emissions reductions pledges or mitigation action pledges, all non-
binding.
•2011 – Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, Kyoto parties to continue, financing mechanisms
launched
•2012 Kyoto Commitment Period ends...
 The UNFCCC & Kyoto
UNFCCC Objective (Article 2):

...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the

atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a
level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure
that food production is not threatened and to enable
economic development to proceed in a sustainable
manner.
•Currently, there are 192 Parties
to the Kyoto Protocol.
•This includes 63.7% of Annex I
Parties’ emissions.
Energy as
a system
Geographical
context
2. Explore the geographic context of emissions
drivers

What challenges in mitigation do different

countries face?
Impact: total emissions vs. per capita

Total emissions: top 20 countries

 Country technology factors (1)

Energy generation technology

 Country technology factors (2)

Economic structure
 Country technology factors (3)

Institutional arrangements
 Country technology factors (4)

Other

Big countries?
Culture?
Cold countries?
Land food
energy
nexus
 General Observations
There is significant variability & uncertainty, but

• Bigger plants generally sequester more carbon

• Long term planting sequesters more carbon

• More carbon is sequestered during more vigorous growth periods

• Forest stores more carbon than perennial plants than grassland than cropland

• Cropland releases more GHG emissions than grassland

• Land-use change has more significant overall GHG impacts than annual soil
emissions

• Fertilizer application substantially increases annual emissions because of the GWP

potency of N2O

• Management of animal and plant residues is key to minimizing GHG emissions

 Biomass Fuel Sources
• Biodegradable fraction of municipal
waste
• Industrial by-products eg. Demolition
waste, paper pulp
• Sewage sludge
• Animal wastes e.g. slurry, poultry litter
• Agricultural residues e.g. Straw
• Vegetable oils
• Forestry residues
• Energy crops e.g. Short rotation
coppice, grasses
 Low
carbon
transitions
 Three Objectives of scenarios (Hughes, 2009)

Improving protective decision making

– Allowing us to be more robust to possible
future external events

Improving proactive decision making

– Allowing us to identify opportunities to
intervene upon and influence the external
environment

Consensus building
– Encouraging diverse actors to engage in
moving towards a common goal
 Energy
demand &
supply
Supply technologies
and barriers to
deployment
 What is renewable energy?

“Any form of energy from solar, geophysical or biological sources that is

replenished by natural processes at a rate that equals or exceeds its
rate of use” (IPCC special report)

“Energy flows which are replenished at the same rate as they are used” -
[(Sorensen, 1979) in Boyle, 2000]
If storage- refilled at the rates comparable to that of extraction

“Energy obtained from natural and persistent flows of energy occurring in

the immediate environment”

(Twidell and Weir 2006)

Most of the renewable technologies stem from solar
energy

• Direct
Photo voltaic, solar water heating,
ground source heat pumps

• Indirect
Biomass, wind, hydro

• Other sources
Tidal, geothermal
 Opposition to wind energy in the UK

• Only 25% of planning applications for onshore

wind receive planning permission from the local
council

• Approval rate of over 70% for roads,

supermarkets and housing

• 62% onshore applications approved at appeal

stage

Source: BWEA, State of the Industry, 2009

 Engagement protocol principles of effective
public engagement
1. Access to information

2. The opportunity to contribute ideas

3.The opportunity to take an active part in developing proposals and

options

4.The opportunity to be consulted and make representations on formal

proposals

5.The opportunity to receive feedback and be informed about progress

and outcomes.
 High Influence

MEET THEIR NEEDS KEY PLAYER

Low Interest High Interest

LEAST IMPORTANT SHOW CONSIDERATION

Low Influence
 What kind of engagement activities

• Public meetings (varying size and frequency)

• Public/displays information events
• Presentations to community organisations
• Site visits
• Brochures and pamphlets
• Press releases (local – national)
• Letters to local residents
• Social media
• Websites
Demand and people
 Changing Behaviours

Focus on individual behavioural change

The view from behavioural economics

• Rational individuals that have choice
• Motivated by economic and other fiscal incentives
The view from psychology
• Intention to act: Attitudes, norms, identity,
emotions determine our behaviours
• habits
 Changing behaviour

Focusing on sociological behavioural change

Social practices perspective

• The focus is on the actions not on individuals
• Everyday ordinary practices that shape electricity
consumption
Views from science and technology studies
• understanding both social and technical change
 Theories of Social Practice

The Elements
competence
material procedure
objects skill
/ artefacts

Images
& Symbolic
meanings
Transport
Energy consumption (world)

Transport:
25%
 Transport CO2 emissions (world, 2010)

Source: IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion data

NB: emissions from electricity heat allocated to consuming sectors
 Progress of ICAO and IMO to date

No mandatory regulations/measures until this year for both ICAO and IMO

IMO has first policies coming into force January 2013 – a mandatory shipping carbon
intensity target for new ships – ‘Energy Efficiency Design Index’ or ‘EEDI’

ICAO
“A global agreement reached by the 37th Session of the ICAO Assembly in October
2010 established a new benchmark for ICAO’s objective relative on aviation and
climate change. It provides a roadmap for action through 2050 for the 190 Member
States of the Organization and invites them to voluntarily submit their/national
action plans to reduce CO2 emissions from international civil aviation to ICAO by June
2012.”
 Supply-side (1)
Carbon intensity of fuel or energy source

• Reduce gCO2/J
• Currently petroleum-based ICEVs dominate
• Biofuels?
• Electricity?
• Hydrogen?
• Synthetic liquid fuels?
 Demand-side
Vehicle kilometres
• Vehicle occupancy (load factor)
• Switch to lower-carbon or unpowered modes
• Information and communication technology (ICT)
• Land-use and spatial planning

• Emissions relate to vehicle kilometres (vkm)

• Demand for transport (mobility): passenger
kilometres (pkm)
Example questions…
Briefly explain the Kyoto Protocol to a group of
energy industry stakeholders.
[5 marks]
What 3 measures can be used to determine a
nation’s impact on the climate? [3 marks]
Define what is meant by ‘demand side
management’ [2 marks]
Summarise the different approaches to
understanding ‘people’ when it comes to
energy and demand side management. [6
marks]
Define what is meant by the following terms
giving an example of where it is used:
(i) Radiative forcing
(ii) Primary energy supply
(iii) Transformation

[6 marks]
Using the Earth’s energy balance, explain how
we know that there is a ‘greenhouse effect’ in
action?
[8 marks]
Radiation of what range of wavelength is
emitted most intensely by the sun? [2 marks]
If coal has an emission factor of 0.8MtC/Mtoe,
and the electricity grid is made up of 20%
coal fired power stations, 50% nuclear power
and 30% renewables, what is the
approximate amount of CO2 released when 5
Mtoe of electricity is consumed in the
household sector over 1 year? [5 marks]
What is meant by a ‘renewable resource’ –
briefly discuss [4 marks]
What is the Kaya identity and how is it used?
[ 4 marks]
 ... for example
Assuming:
… car emissions reduce from 155gCO2/km to 130gCO2/km in 10 years

but
… distance travelled per average car journey increases by 1% year

and
… vehicle occupancy reduces from 2 people/car to 1.8 people/car

and
… number of car journeys remains unchanged

Then, net emissions remain ~unchanged;

despite 16% improvement in vehicle efficiency