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C) Impacts:
Impact Extensions
Russian Economic downturn creates turmoil -risks the use of
1000s of nuclear warheads
Shelton 01 Shelton, Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, 1-15-2001 (Henry) Vital
Speeches
No. 7, Vol. 67; Pg. 194 ; ISSN: 0042-742X
Force, Forces, and Forecasting; Henry H. Shelton speech; Transcript
In much the same way while the Balkans remain a serious concern in Europe, but the situation there pales in comparison with events
the future of
in Russia. The future of Europe will not swing on the status of Kosovo or the establishment of a new Serbia. No,
Europe swings on the path that Russian nationalism takes and whether Russia can continue its peaceful
evolution into a fully democratic nation with a stable economy that abides by the rule of law. As I
discussed with my counterpart, Russian Chief of Staff Kvashnin, this past Tuesday, one of the most potentially
destabilizing factors in the region is the thousands of nuclear and chemical weapons,
stored in facilities throughout Russia. And as we all know, there are still thousands of
nuclear warheads in the Russian arsenal. They present a very profound danger to our
security should they fall into the wrong hands and there are many "wrong hands" out
there trying to get them.
If internal war does strike Russia, economic deterioration will be a prime cause. From 1989 to the
present, the GDP has fallen by 50 percent. In a society where, ten years ago, unemployment scarcely existed, it reached
9.5 percent in 1997 with many economists declaring the true figure to be much higher. Twenty-two percent of Russians
live below the official poverty line (earning less than $70 a month). Modern Russia can neither collect taxes (it gathers
only half the revenue it is due) nor significantly cut spending. Reformers tout privatization as the country's
cure-all, but in a land without well-defined property rights or contract law and where subsidies
remain a way of life, the prospects for transition to an American-style capitalist economy look
remote at best. As the massive devaluation of the ruble and the current political crisis show,
Russia's condition is even worse than most analysts feared. If conditions get worse, even the
stoic Russian people will soon run out of patience.
Russian Oil Disadvantage 11
SAMFORD DEBATE INSTITUTE ’08 OPENING PACKET
Impact Extensions
Failure to provide adequate security of nuclear weapons in the
former Soviet Union makes nuclear proliferation inevitable.
Western Morning News, 2007. (staff, October 22, 2007. Online. Lexis.
Accessed, February 10, 2008).
Mohamed ElBaradei, chairman of the International Atomic Energy Agency and chief United Nations nuclear negotiator,
has already stated that the current regime makes further proliferation of nuclear arms "virtually inevitable". Dr Fox said:
"Unless the international community develops new controls and ownership of
both nuclear fuels and spent fuels and unless there are clear economic incentives
for countries to accept this new authority, with the major powers willing to
effectively police it, then we are asking for trouble." It is vital for the
international community both to secure all existing nuclear facilities - particularly
in the former Soviet Union - from terrorists and thieves and to ensure that no new
nuclear weapons states emerge, said Dr Fox.
Taylor '02 (Stuart Jr., Senior Writer with the National Journal and contributing
editor at Newsweek, Legai Times, September 16, L/N)
< The truth is, no matter what we do about Iraq, if we don't stop proliferation
another five or ten potentially unstable nations may go nuclear before long,
making it ever more likely that one or more bombs will be set off on our soil by
terrorists or terrorist governments. Even an airtight missile defense will be
useless against a nuke hidden in a truck, a shipping container, or a boat.
Unless we get serious about stopping proliferation, we are headed for "a world
filled with nuclear-weapons states where every crisis threatens to go nuclear,"
where "the survival of civilization truly is in question from day to day," and
where "it would be impossible to keep these weapons out of the hands of terrorists, religious cults, and criminal
organizations," So writes Ambassador Thomas Graham Jr., a moderate Republican who served as a career arms-
controller under six presidents and led the successful Clinton administration effort to extend the Nuclear Nonproliferation
Treaty.
Russian Oil Disadvantage 12
SAMFORD DEBATE INSTITUTE ’08 OPENING PACKET
Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have once again illustrated dramatically
that the international community failed, thus far at least, to understand the
magnitude and implications of the terrorist threats to the very survival of civilization
itself. Even the United States and Israel have for decades tended to regard terrorism as a mere tactical nuisance or irritant rather than a
critical strategic challenge to their national security concerns. It is not surprising, therefore, that on September 11, 2001, Americans were
stunned by the unprecedented tragedy of 19 al Qaeda terrorists striking a devastating blow at the center of the nation's commercial and
military powers. Likewise, Israel and its citizens, despite the collapse of the Oslo Agreements of 1993 and numerous acts of terrorism
triggered by the second intifada that began almost three years ago, are still "shocked" by each suicide attack at a time of intensive diplomatic
efforts to revive the moribund peace process through the now revoked cease-fire arrangements [hudna]. Why are the United States and
Israel, as well as scores of other countries affected by the universal nightmare of modern terrorism surprised by new terrorist "surprises"?
There are many reasons, including misunderstanding of the manifold specific factors that contribute to terrorism's expansion, such as lack of
a universal definition of terrorism, the religionization of politics, double standards of morality, weak punishment of terrorists, and the
Unlike their historical counterparts,
exploitation of the media by terrorist propaganda and psychological warfare.
*****Affirmative Answers*****
Non-Unique: Russian oil industry declining now:
Vincent Gioia, 6/7/2008 (staff,
http://www.nationalledger.com/artman/publish/article_272620959.shtm
l)
The Russian oil industry, for example, announced that production
had fallen 1% in the first quarter of 2008. According to the
Russian energy ministry, oil production for the full year could be
lower than in 2007. Any decline would mark a huge reversal.
Russian production has grown steadily over the past 10 years, and
in its supply-and-demand projections the International Energy Agency has been counting on
growth in Russian production of 5% by 2012 to offset big declines in older fields in the North Sea
and Mexico.
Affirmative Answers
Turn: Iran