1 :

:
:

:
- t
- t
- t
- t
O:
) .
)
) () .

:
:

:
-
-
-
-
-
- ( i = 1,2,3 )

)
: ,
: ,

)
=2

 :
k =1
g=2
2-1 2-1
1=1
=>

=1
g=1
2-1 1-1
1>0
=>
:
k=0
g=2
2-0 1-1
2>1
=>

) :

2 :
:
. . 1990-1997 .,
:
y
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

19.4
21
24
27
30
31
33
34

Excel :

a)
) 5

:
y
1990
19.4
1991
21
1992
24
1993
27
1994
30
1995
31
1996
33
1997
34
2.216667
0.140059
0.976607
250.4848
206.3717

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
17.45
0.707261
0.907683
6
4.943333

19.66667
21.88333
24.1
26.31667
28.53334
30.75
32.96667
35.18334

) : y = 17.45+2.216667*t
) :

y'
t
1998
37.4
1999 39.61667
2000 41.83334
2001
44.05
2002 46.26667

9
10
11
12
13

: y' = 17.45+2.216667*t

3 :
:
, :
1
2
3
4 5 6 7 8 9
10
N
x 40 + 0,1a 4 50 + 0,1b 62 6 5 7 5 8 64 0,1c

38

5
4
2

52

5 5 0 1 0
6 6 5 6 3 82
0 3 0 8 8

63

Excel :
) $
y = a + bx
)
) b
= 0, 05
)
() = 0, 05

)
) = 0, 05

)
= 0, 05

:
)
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

38
42
52
60
63
50
68
38
82
63
556
1.127579
0.114098
0.924289
97.66522
1689.97

40.4
45
50
62
65
55
70
51
80
64
582.4
-10.0702
6.774001
4.159773
8
138.4297

35.48399
40.67086
46.30875
59.8397
63.22244
51.94665
68.86033
47.43633
80.13612
62.09486
556

y-
2.516008 6,3303
1.329145 1.76662
5.69125 32.3903
0.160302 0.02569
-0.22244 0.04947
-1.94665
3.7894
-0.86033 0.74016
-9.43633 89.0443
1.86388
3.474
0.905144
0.9052
132.1851

: = -10.0702+1.127579*x

=
55.6

: = -10.0702+1.127579*x

) :
:

1 3 2 . 1 8 5 1
1 0

Sy=
Sy=3.63573

:
2

1 8 0 7 . 6 4
1 0

-17.6
-13.6
-3.6
4.4
7.4
-5.6
12.4
-17.6
26.4
7.4

289 1632.16
184.96
2025
12.96
2500
19.36
3844
54.76
4225
31.36
3025
153.76
4900
309.76
2601
696.96
6400
54.76
4096
1807.64 35248.16

 2y 180.764
:

1
r=

s 2y
2y

3 . 6 32 5 7 3
1
1 8 0 . 7 6 4

r= 0.962743 ,
,

) b
= 0, 05

0 :
1:

n-2=10-2=8
=0.05 ,
t= 1.860 , 2 ( )
,

t= te= 10.1133 > t=1.860

0, .
.

)
() = 0, 05

0 :
1:
:

r= 0.962743 =>

2 n-2 = 8 = 0, 05 ,

,
0, .. .

)
Se :

n - ;
k - ;
n-k-1
n=10; =1 Se

) = 0, 05

0 :
1:

= -10.0702+1.127579*x

v = 8
= 0, 05
Excel:
N

y
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

x
38
42
52
60
63
50
68
38
82
63
556

40.4
45
50
62
65
55
70
51
80
64
582.4

35.48399 2.5160084
40.67086 1.329145
46.30875
5.69125
59.8397
0.1603
63.22244
-0.22244
51.94665 -1.946645
68.86033
-0.86033
47.43633 -9.436329
80.13612
1.86388
62.09486 0.905144
556

40.0726
3.1209
1049.133
0.00066
0.002448
3.7894
0.5478
7928.891
12.069
0.67122
9038.298028

1585366.922
2736109.18
4598881.65
12822054.84
15976623.9
7281656.39
22484146.09
5063424.35
41239486.06
14866974.92
128654724.3

:
-1266.831583 14010472.57
1647.711868 4167433.327
0.068805867 12308384.02
0.591119417
8
89552414667862.20 1.21197E+15

= 0.0688 v = 8.

 = 0, 05 v = 8

,

<

1 0 -

)
= 0, 05
d- :

0 :
1:
N

y
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

x
38
42
52
60
63
50
68
38
82
63
556

40.4
45
50
62
65
55
70
51
80
64
582.4

35.48399
40.67086
46.30875
59.8397
63.22244
51.94665
68.86033
47.43633
80.13612
62.09486
556

*
2.516008
1.329145
5.69125
0.160302
-0.22244
-1.94665
-0.86033
-9.43633
1.86388
0.905144
0.00

0
2.516008
1.329145
5.69125
0.160302
-0.22244
-1.94665
-0.86033
-9.43633
1.86388
-0.90515

6.330298
1.766626
32.39033
0.025697
0.049477
3.789427
0.740168
89.0443
3.474049
0.819286
138.4297

0
3.34414
7.564496
0.912319
-0.03566
0.433002
1.674757
8.118357
-17.5882
1.52705
5.95028

-1.18686
4.362105
-5.53095
-0.38274
-1.72421
1.086315
-8.576
11.30021
-0.95874
-1.61

= 0, 05 n = 10
k = 1 ( 8 ),
= 0.879 , = 1.32

>
>
=> (0 )

4
:

1.408645
19.02796
30.59139
0.146488
2.9729
1.18008
73.54776
127.6947
0.919175
257.4891

 Q = 40 x + 7 x 2 1,1x3
:
) AQ, MQ x ;
) AQ, MQ TQ Excel;
) x

:
) AQ, MQ x

) AQ, MQ TQ

)
Excel
x=6.2 max

5:
:
z x ( ) y (
) z = 6 x 3 y 2 x 4 y 2 x3 y3 5 + 5a + 2b c .
:
) x y ;
) ;
) ;
) ;
) () .

) x :

y:

) x y

)
:

<=>

| x=3
| y=2
| x>0
| y>0

3 2
, . (3, 2).

) :
zxx = 36xy2 12x2y2 6xy3
zyy = 12x3 2x4 -6x3y
zxy = 36x2y 8x3y 9x2y2
x=3 y=2 :
zxx = A = - 144
zyy = B = - 162
zxy = C = - 108
= C B2
= 11664 >0 => zmin(3,2) = 120, .. 120
(3,2).

 6:
:

C = q 3 6q 2 + 18q + 32 , P
p = (38 + 0,1a ) 6q .
:
) ;
) R q p ;
) q = ?
) q ;
) q , p MC ;
) AC , MC , FC AVC ;
) () ( BEP )
C = q3 - 6q2 +18q +32
p = 38,4 6q

:
) , :
:
R = pq = 38,4q 6q2
:
MR = dR/dq = 38,4 12q
MR = =>
38,4 12q = 3q2 12q +18
q= 2,607 => p= 38.4-6*2.6= 22.8
p:

L = 0,675, 67,5% , ..
.
) R q :
R = pq = 38,4q 6q2
38,4 6q > 0
q(38.4-6q)>0
q>0 , q < 6,4
=> q (0;6.4) ; p (0;38.4)

) q max
=RC

= -6q = -15.6
< 0 => q = 2,6
.

) q,
:
p = MC
38,4 6q = 3q2 12q +18
3q2 6q 20,4 = 0
q = 3,79
q = 3,79 ,

) AC, MC, FC AVC:

) B. E. P. :
= 0
6q 12 = 0

=> q = 2

= 6 > 0
(2) = 52 > ... (q = 2 , = 52).
52 2
.. ... (Break Event Point)

7 :
:
C = 600 + 30q ,
p
q = (40 + 0,1a) .
3
:

) ;
) p q , ;
) BEP ;
) q , R ;
) q p ( P = MC ) .

) p q, max
p=?
q=?

) max q=?

=> q =20.1 max

) q p ( P = MC )
P = MC
121.2-3q = 30
q = 30.4

8
:
(),
() K t 2 4 K t 1 12 K t = 8 + b + c . K t = ?
K 0 = 2, K1 = 3