FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF PAR

INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
POSTGRADUATE PROGRAM IN ELECTRICAL
ENGINEERING

SPECIAL TOPICS IN APPLIED COMPUTING:

Social Technologies

Students:
Isa Andrade
Rosana Santos

Belm - January
2017
 ASSOCIATION RULE ON
QUANTIFICATION AND
QUALIFICATION OF VIOLENCE IN THE
STATE OF PAR - PA
Summary
1. Introduction
2. Methodology
3. Theoretical Foundations
4. Results
5. Final Considerations
6. References
Introduo
The violence is a topic that
increasingly concerns society in
all its segments, be it civil,
scientific, or governmental,
simply because the statistics of
occurrence rise more and more.
According to Professor Aiala
Colares of the University of the
State of Par (Universidade do
Estado do Par - UEPA), several
factors can be attributed to
violence in Par, such as the
disorderly growth of cities and
the lack of public policies
Introduo

The Fire Department of the State of Par (Corpo de

Bombeiro Militar do Par - CBMPA) also responds to the
occurrence of violence. They are considered Auxiliary force
of the Brazilian Army and they integrate the system of
public security and social defense of Brazil, also works in
partnership with the Port Authority, Municipal Guard, Detran
end with the Public Safety Air Group using helicopter. The
CBMPA has an effective of more than 2,931 soldiers
Introduo

This study was overall objective to apply data mining

technique (a priori association rule) to analyze
quantitatively and qualitatively the data of physical
violence and violence with weapon use in the state of Par,
in 2015, also using the Geographic Information System
(GIS) tool to map the locations served by the Fire
Department and Excel Software for quantification of the
most relevant data.
 Theoretical Foundations
Association Rule are used to discover elements
that occur in common within a given dataset.
Metrics can be used to evaluate rules and
identify which ones are interesting. The most
commonly used restrictions are:
Support can be described as the probability that any
transaction satisfies both X and Y. And the confidence is the
probability that a transaction satisfies Y, given that it
satisfies X.
By means of the Lift measure it is possible to verify how
much more frequent the consequent Y is when its
antecedent X occurs, the greater the Lift, more relevant the
rule.
Conviction is used to verify if in fact the rule obtained using
 Theoretical Foundations
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are
computer systems that capture, store,
query, manipulate, analyze and print data
referred especially to the surface of the
Earth.
Some advantages of GIS is that they can manipulate
graphics data and non-graphic seamlessly, providing a
consistent basis for analysis, consultation involving
geographic data. For example, you can allow access to
real estate records from your geographic location. In
addition, they can make connections between different
entities, based on the concept of geographical proximity.
Methodology
After lifting, reading and analyzing
bibliographical material, for the execution of
the work, data of records of rescue of victims of
violence
weapon were with physical
acquired aggression
by the Military and with use
Fire Department of
Par, in ofthe period between January and December
2015, taking into account the Integrated Region of Public
Security.
The 1050 occurrences of violence with physical
aggression and use of a weapon included the
following groups of variables: data on the
occurrence (date, day of the week, time of care,
type of place, integration region, type of
occurrence, Pre-hospital care) and data about the
victim (gender, age, injury, problems
encountered and type of problems).
Methodology
For descriptive statistical analysis and for
quantification, by means of Excel software,
percentage calculations were performed and
graphs were generated.
In the Geographic Information System
environment, in the QGis software of the QGis
2.14.10 package, the occurrence of data and
operating performance of CBMPA depending on the
integration regions were mapped, and then
performed qualitative and quantitative analyzes..
And in the task of data mining was used the
algorithm Apriori of software WEKA 3.8.0 with the
objective of extracting rules of association varying
the parameters of minimum support and
Results
Among the occurrences,
about 83.9% of the
victims were male; The
age group most affected
was between 18 and 28
years old with 46% and
between 30 and 39 years
old with 23.9%. In
contrast, the least
affected were children Figure I. Male and female victims who
under 10 years with suffered aggression, grouped by age
1.33% and the elderly, group. Occurrences Registered by CBMPA.
State of Par - 2015.
comprising the range of
60 or more to 2.48%.
 Results
Regarding the type of
occurrence around 68.19%
were assaulted with some
type of weapon and 31.81%
were physically assaulted.
Among the victims,
approximately 6% were
uninjured, 85.81% presented
an injury and 8.19% died,
according to Fig. 2. Of those
who died, almost 35% were Figure II. Victims of Physical Aggression
related to problems caused and Aggression with Weapon Use, Grouped
by a firearm injury and by Age Group. Occurrences Registered by
CBMPA. State of Par - 2015.
around 51% were not
Results
Regarding the Prehospital Care
(PC) around 14% did not receive
the PC, consequently 86%
received. Of those who did not
receive PC, about 41% died. And
of those who received PC only
2.88% died. This clairvoyance is
the importance of the PC.
In relation to the months of the
year, the distribution was quite
uniform in relation to the Figure III. Occurrences registered
occurrences recorded, the month by the CBMPA during the months
of greatest occurrence was the of the year. State of Par - 2015.
month of January with 10.38%
Results
Regarding the distribution by day of the week, the days
that correspond to the weekend (Friday, Saturday and
Sunday), represented most of the occurrences with
55.24%.

Figure IV. Occurrences registered by the CBMPA as a

function of the day of the week. State of Par - 2015.
Results
As for the time of occurrences,
about 64.29% were in the
night time, in the intervals
between 18:00h to 06:00h,
according to Fig. 5. And the
interval between 18:00h to
00:00h was the hour with the
highest index of occurrence
(37.81%). The places with the
highest occurrences were
urban public roads with 56% of Figure 5. Victims of Physical
the cases. And the Guajar Aggression and Aggression with
integration region was the one Weapon Use, Grouped by Age
Group. Occurrences Registered by
that registered the highest CBMPA. State of Par - 2015.
Results
For the mapping was used to
variable occurrence, were also
mapped the CBMPA action
local and integration regions.
Figure shows the map of the
Integrated Public Security
Regions of the State of Par,
the data were obtained
through the website of the
Secretariat of Planning of the
State of Par-SEPLAN / PA and
later plotted using the tool
QGis.
 Results
The Figure refers to the areas of
operation of the fire department in
the Regions Integrated Public
Security of the State of Par. The
regions do Araguaia, Baixo
Amazonas, Tapajos, Rio Xingu and
Rio Capim, each (in dark blue) have
only one CBMPA Attendance station.
The regions of Maraj and Lago do
Tucur have two stations (in light
blue) of service of the CBMPA. The
regions of Carajs and Rio Caet
have three stations (in light yellow)
of service of the CBMPA. The regions
of Tocantins and Guam have four
 Results
The Figure shows the
regions with recorded
occurrence of
aggressions served by
CBMPA. The region of
Guajar is the place with
the highest index of
occurrence, as previously
mentioned.
 Results
For the Association Rule we varied the minimum support
parameter between 0.1 and 1. It was left in the Weka
default option with a maximum of 10 rules.
I. First experiment was to use the minimum support equal
to 0.1 and confidence equal to 0.9. The program generated
only two rules, however, those that obtained the best
confidence and conviction were chosen. The rule has
confidence>0.9, lift>1 and conviction>1.
2. PC=Y REGION=Rio Caet 115 ==> WOUND=Wound
105 <conf:(0.91)> lift:(1.06) lev:(0.01) [6] conv:(1.48)

Rule 2: If the victim received pre-hospital care and the

occurrence was in the region of Rio Caet, then the victim
was wound.
Results
II. The second experiment tried to use the minimum
support equal to 0.15 and confidence equal to 0.9. The
Weka tool generated the 10 rules, all with confidence>
0.9, lift> 1 and Conviction> 1, being considered
potentially interesting, however, those that obtained
the best confidence and conviction were chosen.
1. GENDER=M PC=Y PROBLEM=FIREARM_INJURY
WOUND=Wound 208 ==> OCCURRENCE=Aggression_with_Weapon
206 <conf:(0.99)> lift:(1.45) lev:(0.06) [64] conv:(22.05)

Rule 1: If the victim was male, received Prehospital

Care, the type of problem was firearm injury and victim
was wounded, then the occurrence was aggression with
weapon use.
Results
2. PROBLEM=FIREARM_INJURY
KIND_PLACE=PUBLIC_HIGHWAY_URBAN 175 ==>
OCCURRENCE=Aggression_with_Weapon 173 <conf:(0.99)> lift:
(1.45) lev:(0.05) [53] conv:(18.56)
Rule 2 : If the type of the victim's problem was firearm
injury and the kind of place where the victim found himself
was in public highway urban, so the occurrence was
aggression with weapon use.
3. AGE=18 to 29 PROBLEM=FIREARM_INJURY 162 ==>
OCCURRENCE=Aggression_with_Weapon 160 <conf:(0.99)> lift:
(1.45) lev:(0.05) [49] conv:(17.18)
Rule 3: If the victim is between 18-29 years and the type of
problem was firearm injury, then the occurrence was
aggression with weapon use.
Results
4. GENDER=M PROBLEM=FIREARM_INJURY
KIND_PLACE=PUBLIC_HIGHWAY_URBAN 162 ==>
OCCURRENCE=Aggression_with_Weapon 160 <conf:(0.99)> lift:
(1.45) lev:(0.05) [49] conv:(17.18)
Rule 4: If the victim was male, the type of victim problem
was firearm injury and the kind of place where the victim
found himself was in public highway urban, then the
occurrence was aggression with weapon use.
Results
III. The third experiment was to use the minimum
support equal to 0.25 and confidence equal to 0.9. The
Weka tool generated the 10 rules, all with confidence>
0.9, lift> 1 and Conviction> 1 is considered potentially
interesting, but were chosen those that had better
confidence and conviction.
1. PROBLEM=FIREARM_INJURY 278 ==>
OCCURRENCE=Aggression_with_Weapon 276 <conf:(0.99)> lift:
(1.46) lev:(0.08) [86] conv:(29.48)

Rule 1: If the type of the victim's problem was firearm

injury, then the occurrence was aggression with
weapon use.
Results
IV. The fourth experiment was to use the minimum
support equal to 0.3 and equality equal to 0.9. The
Weka tool generated as 10 rules, all with confidence>
0.9, raise> 1 and conviction> 1, considering
considerably potential stakeholders, yet have chosen
as having obtained better confidence and conviction.
1. HOUR=18:01 to 00:00 WOUND=Wound 329 ==> PC=Y 316 <conf:
(0.96)> lift:(1.12) lev:(0.03) [33] conv:(3.29)

Rule 1: If the victim was attended between 18:00h to

00:00h and victim was wounded, then received
Prehospital Care.
 Results
3. GENDER=M AGE=18 to 29 PC=Y 346 ==> WOUND=Wound 331
<conf:(0.96)> lift:(1.11) lev:(0.03) [34] conv:(3.07)

Rule 3: If the victim was male, to be aged between 18-29

years and received Prehospital Care, then the victim was
wounded.
Results
V. The fifth experiment was to use the minimum
support equal to 0.35 and confidence equal to 0.9. The
Weka tool generated the 10 rules, all with confidence>
0.9, lift> 1 and Conviction> 1, being considered
potentially interesting, but those that obtained better
confidence and conviction were chosen
1. AGE=18 to 29 WOUND=Wound 412 ==> PC=Y 394 <conf:(0.96)>
lift:(1.11) lev:(0.04) [39] conv:(3.04)

Rule 1: If the victim is between the ages of 18 and 29

and is wounded, then Pre-Hospital Care.
 Results
4. GENDER=M KIND_PLACE=PUBLIC_HIGHWAY_URBAN
WOUND=Wound 429 ==> PC=Y 408 <conf:(0.95)> lift:(1.11) lev:
(0.04) [39] conv:(2.73)

Rule 4: If the victim was of the male gender, the type of

place where the victim was in an public highway urban and
victim was wounded, then received Pre-Hospital Care.
Results
VI. The sixth experiment sought to use the minimum
support equal to 0.45 and confidence equal to 0.9. The
Weka tool generated the 10 rules, all with confidence>
0.9, lift> 1 and Conviction> 1, being considered
potentially interesting, but those that obtained better
confidence and conviction were chosen
10. PC=Y KIND_PLACE=PUBLIC_HIGHWAY_URBAN 506 ==>
WOUND=Wound 473 <conf:(0.93)> lift:(1.09) lev:(0.04) [38] conv:
(2.11)

Rule 4: If the victim received pre-hospital care and the

type of place where the victim was located was in
public highway urban, then victim was wounded.
Final Considerations
The observed differences in the occurrence of
aggression, the disadvantage for males can be explained
from the influence of gender cultural models. The
socialization of men, from an early age, usually anchors
in a "set of attributes, values, functions and behaviors
that a man is expected to have in a given culture". In the
records of occurrence the distinction between age
groups is noted in the range of 18 to 29 years and in the
next range (30-39). The involvement of young people in
violent events may be due to poor living conditions, lack
of opportunities for young people in terms of quality
schooling and consequent difficulties in entering the
formal labor market, etc.
The intensity of firearms in most occurrences may be
Final Considerations
The mapped region with the highest index of occurrence
was the Guajar region where the metropolitan
municipalities of Belm are located. It is also the region
with the highest number of CBMPA service stations.
The APRIORI algorithm presented as a result of
association rules considered relevant. The variables that
stood out during the APRIORI algorithm were: type of
problem (Firearm injury), occurrence
(Aggression_with_Weapon), Wound type (Wound),
gender (male), age (18 to 29 years), Hour (18:01 to
00:00), Prehospital Care (PC), Kind Place
(Public_Highway_Urban) and Region (Rio Caet).
For all that has been discussed above and by living with
the APRIORI algorithm, it can be concluded that it works,
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 References
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