Chapter 3

Developing Predictive Hypotheses

Cognitive & Non Cog Abilities
Personality
Criteria

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 1

 Conceptual & Operational Definitions
Predictors & Criteria
F. Kerlingers definitions
Concept or construct: Whats the difference?
Theory v. hypothesis: whats the difference?
Predictive Hypothesis:
Grounded in theory (explanation relationships)
Predictors & Criteria: defined at two levels:
conceptual & operational: Whats the difference?

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 2

 Predictors (KSAOs, other attributes)
(independent vars for experimental research)
Give some examples with operational definitions

Criteria (performance/results)
Outcomes (dependent vars for experimental research)
Give some examples with operational definitions

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 3

 Theory Building and Testing
fig 3.1 p 53

1. Theory:
predictor construct (height) is related to
criterion construct (basketballability)
2. Predictive hypothesis (testable):
predictor measure (height in inches) is related to
Criterion measure (number of dunks in 2 minutes)
3. Predictor measure is valid measure of height
4. Criterion measure is a valid measure of basketballability
5. Predictor measure is related to the Criterion construct
(confirms prediction and supports theory)

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 4

 Theory and Practice
Specification of Population
For what populations does the theory hold?
Why would this be important?
Give some examples,
e.g. women in the military?
Geographical differences?

Specification of time intervals

Whats the optimal timeframe for criterion collection?
What should be the length of time for criterion collection?
Give examples for jobs with different learning curves

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 5

 Specifying functional relationships
Linear
Give examples linear relationships
Curvilinear
Give examples of curvilinear relationships

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 6

 Criteria
Criterion constructs
Inferring Constructs from Measures
A theory of Performance
Performance Components and Determinants
Contextual Behavior
Trainability

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 7

Predictors & Predictive Hypotheses
Avoid folklore theories
Use standardized measures proven to work
E.g. Cognitive ability, which is usually superior to
non-cognitive measures.
Cognitive Factors (ability to think)
perceive, process, evaluate, compare, create,
Understand, manipulate (ideas), reason
75 years of Factor Analytic studies

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 8

 Cognitive
7 Primary Mental abilities (Thurstone, 38)
Verbal comprehension
Word fluency
Spatial ability
Perceptual speed
Numerical facility
Memory
Inductive reasoning

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 9

 Cognitive Abilities
General Mental Ability (GMA) intelligence
Processes of
Acquiring,
Storing (memory)
Retrieving
Combining, (relationships)
Comparing, (relationships)
Using in context new concepts (abstraction)
(Humphreys, 79)

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 10

 GMA
Spearmans (1927)g
Fluid intelligence (Gf)
Basic reasoning
Crystallized intelligence (Gc)
Acquired knowledge (e.g. vocabulary tests)
Carroll (1993) using factor analytic studies
Three stratum model
First order factors (several)
Second order factors (R. B. Cattells Gf, Gc)
Third order g (like Spearmans)

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 11

 Job Specific Ks & Ss
O*Net three occupational skills list
Basic
Cross functional
Occupation specific

Think of some for the IO psychologists job

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 12

 Personality Constructs
Trait habitual way of thinking or behaving in
response to a variety of situations.
Value, goal, beh tendency to seek or avoid
Sometimes role specific
What does this mean?
Called work styles occupational values
(O*Net)

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 13

 Personality
Five Factor Model (universal)
NEO (CANOE) Memorize the five traits
Guion & Highhouse
Surgency (extravert, dominance, assertive)
Agreeableness (likeability, friendly)
Conscientiousness (responsible, dependable)
Emotional Stability
Open to experience (intellectance)

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 14

 Personality
Integrity and conscientiousness
Not engaging in counter-productive behavior
Stealing,
embezzlement
cheating customers
Others?
Trustworthy
Work hard without surveillance

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 15

 Personality
Other traits (just a few)
Core Self-evaluation (Judge, Eraz, Bono)
Locus of Control (Rotter)
Smith, Trompenaars & Dugan (2007)
PA/NA (positive/ negative affect)
Watson, Clark, Lee Tellegen (1988)
GCOS
General Causality Scale Description (Deci & Ryan)

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 16

 Personality
some questions
Are traits malleable?
Are they job specific?
How, if so should they be used in selection?
What needs to be done to improve their use?

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 17

 Physical and Sensory Competencies
What effect has ADA had?

Physical Characteristics
At what cost are accommodations to the
workplace (for ADA?)
Find some examples?
What role does human factors psych play?
Physical Abilities
E. Fleishman, R. Hogan (have studied them)
Are they important in sports?
Are they important in the military?

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 Non-Cognitive
Emotional Intelligence (Goleman, 95)
Perceive, appraise, express emotions
(Mayer & Salovey, 97)
Lacks conceptual coherence
Not psychometrically sound
Redundant with other measures?
E.g. cognitive ability, personality traits?
(Matthews, Roberts, & Zeidner, 04)

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 19

 Experience, Education, Training
Credentials are rarely useful
Unless based on a Job Analysis
Some majors may be useful
If knowledge is comparable to professions
Can you think of some?
Can competencies be assessed via testing?
What would Prometric say?

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 20

 Team Selection Predictors
Technical (often needed)
Stevens & Campion (94) Team KSAs
Interpersonal & Self-management
The knowledge, skill, and ability requirements for teamwork:
Implications for human resource management (Michael J. Stevens
Michael A. Campion, 94)
Staffing Work Teams: Development and Validation of a Selection
Test for Teamwork Settings (Stevens & Campion, 99)
Selection in Teams: An Exploration of the Teamwork Knowledge,
Skills, and Ability Test (McClough & Rogelberg, 03)
Use of situational judgment tests to predict job performance: A
clarification of the literature. (McDaniel, et al. 01)

Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses 21