Population density

modelling
Arwan Putra Wijaya
Introduction
● Demographic data is a fundamental component of disaster risk models.
(Tenerelli, P., et al. 2015)
● Therefore it is most often used as one of the variables in determining social
vulnerability.
● Many different methods are used to disaggregate census data and predict
population densities to construct finer scale, gridded population data sets.
(Patel, N. N., et al. 2017)
Situation
● Population data are often available from census at the commune level or
based on administrative units.
● In some cases demographic and socio-economic surveys are conducted
using grid cell spatial units. Grid-based representations of population offer
several advantages when population data must be integrated with a
representation of settlements or environmental phenomena.
Indicators
● Population data is usually presented temporally for
example; every year, every five years.
● Population data is usually presented in units of certain
areas, for example; administrative unit, political boundary.
● And also number of population itself.
Problems
● Population data are usually available from censuses that release population
and associated variables in a spatially aggregated form,Typically at a given
administrative unit that is too coarse for disaster modelling at the local scale
(e.g.city scale).
● Knowing where people are is critical for accurate impact assessments and
intervention planning, particularly those focused on population health, food
security, climate change, conflicts, and natural disasters. (Deville, P., et al.,
2014)
 Methods
Derivation of local to regional-
scale (10-100 kilometers)
information from larger scale
modeled or observed data. There
are two main approaches:
dynamical downscaling and
statistical downscaling.
There are two methods of
downscaling, they are dynamical
downscaling and statistical
downscaling.
Downscaling
(Tenerelli, P., et al. 2015)

(African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC), 2014)

Methods
The ability of the MP data-based
approach to accurately
downscale census population
data was compared with that of
an existing method used to
downscale census data through
remote sensing and other
geospatial data, hereafter called
the “remote sensing” method or
RS.
Mobile phone or social media
geolocation
(Deville, P., et al., 2014)
Data needed

Land cover Census data

 Challenge for downscaling method

● Downscaling applications or those

based on census data and land use
are very suitable for representing
residents at night and in residential
locations.
● While for daytime population data
moves according to the location of
each activity.
● In general downscaling is needed
when population data are available at
coarse resolution,

(Tenerelli, P., et al. 2015)

Framework for
spatiotemporal
population
modeling.

(Martin, D., et al., 2015)

Case study

● PP = Present Population
● PR = Population of resident
● PNR = Population of nonresident
● PT = Population in Transit
● I = location population
● c = certain area of the population
location
● t = time

(Martin, D., et al., 2015) (Greger, Konstantin, 2015) (Case study in Tokyo)
Challenge for MP or SM method

● The social media application or mobile

phone is very flexible used for daytime
during activities, as well as at night
when in housing.
● but not everyone at the same time uses
his mobile phone or social media. so
the accuracy of this method depends on
the use of the mobile phone or social
media.

(Patel, N. N., et al. 2017)

Thank you