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Young: Demographic
Challenges
Growing Old, Growing Young:
Demographic Challenges
The main theme of the session is actually
emphasizing the demographic challenges facing
nations and subpopulation as a result of their
different level of progress within the demographic
transition process.
The same conclusion was also confirmed by the
papers presented, although limited to the
Australian experience, but it can be also
observed at various levels:
* Global / Regional
* National
* Sub-national
Growing Old, Growing Young:
Demographic Challenges
Besides their demographic implications, they will
have clear implications for the measurement of
progress, assuming that already have a common
consensus of what various stakeholders mean by
progress?
The presentations and the position elaborated
yesterday showed different views about what is
meant by progress for different groups and
organs depending on various factors including
the level of those concerned, the context and the
time factor.
Growing Old, Growing Young:
Demographic Challenges
Total
Major areas
0-14 15-59 60+ 80+ population
Latin America and the Caribbean -0.38 0.61 2.98 3.99 0.74
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of United Nations Secretariat (2005)
World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision. Highlights. New York: United Nations.
Demographic Transition: The
Changing Age Structure
Significantly low average annual rate of change
for the age group 0-14 years. With the exception
of the least developing countries, the rate is very
low and even negative for developed regions and
parts of the less developed countries. This is
mainly the result of continuous low birth rates.
Percentage Percentage
of total
Area or Region 80 years or over
Number (thousands) population
Percentage Percentage
of total
Area or Region 80 years or over
Number (thousands) population
Percentage Percentage
of total
Area or Region 80 years or over
population
Number (thousands)
Source:
Population Division of the Department of economic and social Affairs of United Nations Secretariat (2006)
Global Ageing
The ageing process would continue globally,
across regions and countries as can be seen
from Table 2.
By 2050, the percentage 60 years and over is to
reach 22% and such percentages would be
doubled for almost all developing regions, but the
gap between developed and developing countries
would narrow.
Similar percentage for Europe and North America
would reach 34 and 27 % respectively.
Global Ageing: Overall Impact
Successful ageing leading to maximizing desired
outcomes, i.e. “ adding life to years, not years to
life”.
AS stated by ageing experts, successful ageing is
the confluence of three functions:
* Avoidance of disease and disability;
* High cognitive and maintain physical and
mental functioning;
* Involvement in society and being active with
life.
Global Ageing: Overall Impact
The aspirations of this growing group and their
challenges need to reflected in measuring
progress.
Various aspects of life for this group include:
* Health transition, morbidity and disability;
* Marital status changes & intergenerational
relationships;
* Family structure and the changing norm of the
nuclear family;
* Living arrangements;
* Work participation;
* Retirement and social security benefits.
Table 3 presents some characteristics of this group.
Table (3)
Population Ageing characteristic (60 Years or Over) 2006)
Demographic Challenges: Migration
Migration trends, similarly affected the changes
in the age structure;
Migration stocks from developing countries might
benefit from the better conditions in the receiving
countries, but the benefits for the former are
affected by many factors;
Managed migration programs are based on
circular migration, short-term movements and
incentives for return back. This will affect
population dynamics in different ways .
A new type of data collection mechanisms are
required.
Demographic Challenges:
Population Characteristics
Human development aspects including
health, education and economic growth;
Gender concerns, especially among
ageing population;
Special groups needs and absorbing them
within the society ( disability and people
with psychological disorder)
Level of HIV/AIDS epidemic and death,
especially in some region such as Africa.
Demographic Challenges and
Measuring Progress
Measurement of progress that takes into
consideration such demographic challenges,
would require:
* Identifying the aspirations and desirable
outcomes for various groups and locations;
* A combination of aggregate and distributional
measures to respond to the needs of various
special groups and geographic locations;
* Improving the quality of primary data and
widening the scope of measurements to take
contextual aspects into consideration.
Demographic Challenges: Data
Requirements
Providing primary quality data for various defined
administrative level;
Collect information to monitor the situation of
subpopulation groups, especially the ageing, to
enable countries to develop better policies in that
respect(such as the Health & retirement study of
the USA) while at the same time develop systems
to collect information on children;
Collect development information on international
migration, especially that some countries are
benefiting from this to help stem the decline of
population size and working-age.
Measuring Progress
Measuring progress is a dynamic
continuous process that depend on the
perception of progress:
GDP considered a measure of progress in
goods &services
HDI is mainly concerned with expanding
abilities to make informed choices
Progress in that continuum should be
concerned with capacity to achieve/realize
informed choices.