Shanghai 2030

SMART CITIES MIT Media Lab: Shanghai 2030

Shanghai 2030 - Major Topics

- GM’s Futurama exhibit

- Economic History

- Shanghai Transportation

- Wireless Charging

- Ideas
Shanghai 2030 - GM’s Futurama exhibit
Shanghai 2030 – Leading to GM’s Futurama I Exhibition

Historic Factors Invitation to the 1940 World’s Fair

1933-39 The United States begins recovering from Great Depression.

1924 Mass production of automobiles has hit and the market has become saturated.

1930’s Growing congestion due to the percentage of the population driving as well as the
number of paved roads.

1935 Automotive form is now driven by consumer expectation.

1939 Conflict in Europe and Asia has caused the beginning of WWII.
Shanghai 2030 – Leading to GM’s Futurama I Exhibition

Technological Factors
Model of America in 1960
1920’s Asphalt paving techniques introduced.

1935 Hoover dam completed.

1936 First fully programmable computer intorduced. “Konrad Zuse – Z1 Computer”

1937 Demise of airships with the Hindenburg disaster.

1939 First jet aircraft “Heinkel He” produced in Germany.

1939 Long distance calling introduced, as well as operator less phone lines.

1939 Public television broadcasting begins with World’s Fair.

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Shanghai 2030 – Leading to GM’s Futurama I Exhibition

1939 Worlds Fair “Major Exhibits” General Motors pavilion

-General Motors Co. “Futurama Exhibition”

-RCA. “Television”

-AT&T. “Long distance calling”

-Ford Motor Co. “Road of Tomorrow” 1939 World’s Fair Poster

-Bendix Aviation Co. “Displaying new aviation, marine, and automobile technology.”

-Eastern Railroads. “Displayed new rail construction and engineering technology.”

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Shanghai 2030 – GM’s Futurama I Exhibition

Model of America in 1960 Model of America in 1960

Futurama I Exhibition “Goals”

-Lure fairgoers (potential car buyers) into an idealized fantasy world without traffic accidents
and stop and go congestion.

-The future promised “better days ahead.”

-Visitors were promised that “abundant sunshine, fresh air, fine green parkways” would blend
together with seven lane highways as well as high rise buildings.

-Promise of greater mobility

-Promised everyone a decent living in the future.

Shanghai 2030 – GM’s Futurama I Exhibition

Model of America in 1960

Futurama I Exhibition “Execution” Model of America in 1960

-Visitors were seated on a seat with individual speakers, and were driven through the exhibit
on a fixed path.

-The exhibit was viewed as if flying over the country in an airplane.

-As the passengers progressed through the exhibit, they viewed the future model of America.

-Along the path were a series of dioramas, each one progressively growing larger as you
move through the ride.

-At the exit of the ride you are now inside a to scale version of the future, in 1960.
Shanghai 2030 – GM’s Futurama I Exhibition

Model of America in 1960

Futurama I Exhibition “Model”

-36,000 sq. ft model of America in 1960.

Model of America in 1960

-Contained approximately 500,000 individually designed houses, 1,000,000 trees,

50,000 scale automobiles, landscape, and new “super highways.”

-Model was supposed to cover an area of 3,000 sq. miles of American prosperity.

-Model showed how affluent America would look in the near future.
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Shanghai 2030 – GM’s Futurama I Exhibition

Model of America in 1960

Futurama I Exhibition “Audience”

-Potential purchasers of new vehicles.

-The American public.

-Government agencies in charge of transportation.

-Business owners.

-Viewed by hundreds of thousands of visitors

-Future drivers
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Shanghai 2030 – GM’s Futurama I Exhibition

Model of America in 1960

Futurama I Exhibition “Impact”

Model of America in 1960
-Helped create the American obsession with the automobile.

-For comer of the large scale highway projects.

-For comer of multiple height highways.

-Gave people a vision of the future to work towards.

-Took peoples minds off of the looming war in Europe.

-Link to video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74cO9X4NMb4

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Shanghai 2030 – GM’s Futurama II Exhibition

G.M. Pavilion 1964

Futurama II Exhibition

-The city of the future would have no limits. Futurama II 1964

-People would live on the moon and Antarctica.

-Much broader vision of the future city.

-Promised swimming pools, and luxury.

-Computer driven automobiles, moving side walks, and atomic powered road paving machines.

-The world would be united under one language and science.

 Shanghai 2030 - Chinese Economic History

Deda Chicken Processing Plant,

Jilin province
SMART CITIES MIT Media Lab: Shanghai 2030
Shanghai 2030 - Chinese Economic History

Since 1978, the the People’s Republic of China has been shifting from a centrally planned
system towards a market based economy that is more open to free trade.

-Chinese GDP has increased more than 1000% since 1978

- Based on purchasing power parity (PPP), China was as the second-largest economy in the
world after the US, although in per capita terms the country is still lower middle-income and 130
million Chinese fall below international poverty lines. (2006)

- In 2006 China had the largest current account surplus in the world - nearly $180 billion
SMART CITIES MIT Media Lab: Shanghai 2030
- China's overall FDI inflows totaled $69.5 billion in 2006
Shanghai 2030 - Chinese Economic History

Economic goals for the 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010)

- maintain an average yearly GDP growth rate at above 9% while cutting energy consumption
per unit GDP production by 20%
- maintain an urban unemployment rate below 4.5% and make 98% of local citizens enjoy
social security benefits
- keep the percentage of spending on R&D projects above 2.8% of GDP
- increase the city's port trade to 550 billion US dollars, the containers handled to 24 million,
and the number of passengers crossing local airports to above 80 million
- increase the Internet penetration to about 68% by 2010;
SMART CITIES MIT Media Lab: Shanghai 2030
Shanghai 2030 - Chinese Economic History

Selected transportation infrastructure goals for the 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010)

- six railways for passenger transportation, including one between Beijing and Shanghai
- fourteen expressways including one from Beijing to Hong Kong and Macao
- transit systems for the transportation of coal and imported oil, gas and iron ore, and containers
transport systems at 12 seaports including Shanghai
- channel dredging in the Yangtze and Pearl River valleys and acceleration of port construction
along inland rivers.
- expansion of ten airports including those in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou

SMART CITIES MIT Media Lab: Shanghai 2030

Shanghai 2030 - Pudong New Area

The Pudong New Area was established in 1990 on former farmland on the East banks of the
Huangpu River.

- 556 square kilometers with a population of over 2.6M

- The average annual GDP growth rate has exceeded 20% since 1990

- Four business development zones include: Lujiazui Finance and Trade Zone, Jinqiao Export
Processing Zone, Waigaoqiao Bonded Zone, and Zhangjiang Hi-techSMART
Park Zone
CITIES MIT Media Lab: Shanghai 2030
Shanghai 2030 - Pudong New Area

As a Special Economic Zone (SEZ), the Pudong has greater economic and tax flexibility than
other areas of the PRC:

- Special tax incentives for foreign investment

- Greater independence on foreign trade, and primarily export-oriented

- Measured separately in national accounting SMART CITIES MIT Media Lab: Shanghai 2030
Shanghai 2030 - Pudong Development Areas

Zhangjiang (119.3 square kilometers)

- primary industries include information technology, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals

Lujiazui Financial and Trade Zone (43.4 square kilometers)

- specializes in finance, commerce, exhibitions, entertainment and tourism

Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone (97 square kilometers)

- focuses on exports, shipping and international trade

Jinqiao Export & Processing Zone (90 square kilometers)

- primary industries include automobiles, microelectronics and semi-conductor equipment,

mechanical and electronic integration equipment and biopharmaceuticals

SMART CITIES MIT Media Lab: Shanghai 2030

Shanghai 2030 - Transportation
Shanghai 2030 - Architecture

Picture: Old City Shanghai

Shanghai 2030 - Architecture
Shanghai 2030 - Map
Shanghai 2030 - Subway System
Shanghai 2030 - Intro

Picture: Bao Steel Shanghai

- China absorbed 40% of the entire world's production of cement and accounted 90% of the
increase for demand of steal. (London Economist 2003)
- China is building as many lane kilometers of highway each year as the entire rest of the
world.
Shanghai 2030 - Problems with Megacities
Source: Union International Transports Publics (UITP)

Better Urban Mobility in Developing Countries

The Vicious Circle of Urban Transport Degradation

- More and more people are living in urban areas

- Many cities are developing anarchically
- There is a lack of dedicated institutions to address urban mobility issues
- People have limited access to motorized transport
- Cities are under-investing in infrastructure
- Air in urban areas is increasingly polluted
- Too many people die or are injured in traffic accidents (huge problem in Shanghai)
- Growing congestion is a widespread problem in almost all cities (huge problem in Shanghai)
- Urban sprawl and usage of cars increases emissions of greenhouse gases
- Increase in travel also means increase in energy consumption
- Car infrastructure uses urban space inefficiently
Shanghai 2030 - Shanghai Facts
Source: Ralph Gakenheimer Lecture (MIT, 2004)

Automobiles in growing economies in the developing world

Travel Demand Indicators in Mumbai and Shanghai

Mumbai Shanghai
Population 18 million 17 million
Motorization 80% 70%
Economy 6.5 GNP 8-9.5 GNP (Growth Nation Product)
Purchasing Power Parity $ 5.205 $ 7.000
Gini Coefficient 0.7 0.2 (measure of inequality of income distribution or
inequality of wealth distribution)

City Densities 250 people/ha 255 people/ha (Boston 13 people/ha; 20

times the density)

Public Transit 65% 17%

2 Wheel & Auto 4% 11% (cars 24%, 2wheels 52%; Rate of increase
16% a year. Fleet is doubleing every 4 1/2 years

Bicycle 11% 42% (1.8 Bicycle per Family)

Trips per day 1.2 1.3 (indreasing problem of spreading cities)
Shanghai 2030 - Transportation Problems
Source: Ralph Gakenheimer Lecture (MIT, 2004)

Mixed Transportation Growing Congestion

Inefficient Infrastructure No Parking Space

Shanghai 2030 - Urban Degradation
Source: International Association of Public Transport

Vicious Circle of Urban Degradation

Shanghai 2030 - Congestion
Source: International Association of Public Transport

Congestion threatens economic viability and aggravates pollution

Shanghai 2030 - Transport Mortality
Source: International Association of Public Transport

Transport mortality is higher in developing cities and the most vulnerable population
are cyclists and pedestrians
Shanghai 2030 - Infrastructure
Source: International Association of Public Transport

Car infrastructure uses urban space inefficiently

Shanghai 2030 - Transportation
Source: Ralph Gakenheimer Lecture (MIT, 2004)

Challenge #1: CONGESTION (too many transportation modes on the same streets)

What future for congestion? Depends more on speed on motorization than the level of
motorization

Average urban speeds are low

- 9 km/h in Shanghai (6 mph)
- 10 km/h in Bangkok, Manila, and Mexico
- 17 km/h in Kuala Lumpur and Sao Paulo

Average commute times in Manila 120min, Jakarta 82min, Rio de Janeiro 106min

The challenge:
- Enable automobile use in its most socially effective role
- A role for car sharing in developing cities
- Use of new electronics for traffic facilitations (driver advisory systems)
- Limitation of cars in connection areas
- congestion pricing? fees
Shanghai 2030 - Transportation
Source: Ralph Gakenheimer Lecture (MIT, 2004)

Challenge #2: MANAGING PUBLIC TRANSIT AND INFORMAL TRANSIT

Accounts for about 70% of trips in most developing cities

Weakened by political and financial conditions and congestion

Unauthorized transit has grown to a large portion of the market in many cities

The challenges:
- Create managerial strength and sources of financing of public transport

- Design and Enact system integration for public transport

- Adopt new modes for more rapid transit service (e.g. Bus Rapid Transit / Bogota)
Shanghai 2030 - Transportation
Source: Ralph Gakenheimer Lecture (MIT, 2004)

Challenge #3: LAND USE AND URBAN TRANSPORT

Explosive decentralization of urban activities toward metropolitan peripheries permits

adjustment to more affluent lifestyles and new technologies

The problems: social fragmentation, absorption of arable land, increased congestion,

increased trip length, pollution, global warming emissions, fuel consumption

The challenge:
- Reduce excessive urban densities
- Adjust the modern technologies without causing excessive decentralization
- Development plans and standards that create clustering of demand adaptive to
more efficient transportation
Shanghai 2030 - Shanghai Facts
New Transportation Systems - Rapid Transit Bus (TransMilenio / Bogota)

Picture: TransMilenio Bogota

Shanghai 2030 - Shanghai Facts
New Transportation Systems - Rapid Transit Bus (TransMilenio Bogota)
Shanghai 2030 - Wireless Charging
Shanghai 2030 - Wireless Charging

Inductive Power Transfer (IPT) enables battery charging without direct contact.

- No friction wear between components

- No cords or wires

- Charging can be done under water or in wet conditions with no fear of short-circuit or electrical
shock

- Minimal electromagnetic waves SMART CITIES MIT Media Lab: Shanghai 2030
Shanghai 2030 - Wireless Charging in Transportation

Charging coils can be placed underground at bus stops and at traffic lights, charging vehicle
batteries while vehicle is above coils.

Advantages of IPT in transportation infrastructure:

- no carbon emissions or smog (from vehicles) 40

- continuous charging without stopping to “plug-in” to electrical grid

- no exposed wires or electrical rails SMART CITIES MIT Media Lab: Shanghai 2030
Shanghai 2030 - Wireless Charging in Transportation

Charging coils can be placed underground at bus stops and at traffic lights, charging vehicle
batteries while vehicle is above coils.

Challenges include:

- establishing efficient coupling while a vehicle is in motion and over large air gaps
41

- developing electric storage devices capable of high charging rates

- establishing city infrastructure SMART CITIES MIT Media Lab: Shanghai 2030
Shanghai 2030 - Ideas

Nissan Uno - Interior Motives

Design Award 2007

Shanghai Motor Show 2006 Real-time maps titled

'Digital Derive' that
visualize the volume &
geographic source of cell
phone usage in Graz
Shanghai 2030 - Ideas
Cellular Probe System Computes Shanghai Traffic Congestion

Nov 6, 2006, News Report

What is touted as the world's largest cellular probe system has been deployed in Shanghai by
TrafficCast International, TrafficCast China (Shanghai) and China Mobile. The anonymous
mobile phone position and signaling data in China Mobile's GSM network are collected,
analyzed and converted into travel time and speed information for major highways and surface
streets in Shanghai. Currently, the system collects cellular data from 10 million China Mobile
subscribers in Shanghai, and covers all roads within the Inner Ring Area, including 483 miles
of major roads comprising 1,700 roadway segments.
Shanghai 2030 - Ideas
Source: Dencity.konzeptrezept.de